Who remembers the Browns over/under win total before this season? Think it was 6? 7? It was actually 9.
After a narrow defeat in Denver, Cleveland falls to 2-6 – meaning the Browns must win out for over bettors to profit. It sure looks like the under is going to hit this year in Cleveland.
Killersports reports that $100/game ATS bettors on the Browns would be down $460 this season – a result of Cleveland’s 2-6 ATS record.
If you are one of the unfortunate enthusiasts who believed in Baker Mayfield and OBJ this year, don’t worry. The books were also overly optimistic.
Here is a quick look at how Cleveland’s results have stacked up against their pregame expectations this year.
|1||Titans (home)||CLE -5.5 (L)||43-13 TEN|
|2||Jets (away)||CLE -6.5 (W)||23-3 CLE|
|3||Rams (home)||CLE +4.5 (L)||20-13 LAR|
|4||Ravens (away)||CLE +5.5 (W)||40-25 CLE|
|5||49’ers (away)||CLE +5.5 (L)||31-3 SF|
|6||Seahawks (home)||CLE +1.5 (L)||32-28 SEA|
|8||Patriots (away)||CLE +11.5 (L)||27-13 NE|
|9||Broncos (away)||CLE -4 (L)||24-19 DEN|
The Browns have lost their last 4 games. More importantly from a betting perspective, Cleveland has also lost their last 4 ATS.
Vegas thought Cleveland would keep it close in San Fran and was dead wrong. Vegas favored the Browns in their Week 9 scrum with Denver and the Browns underwhelmed again.
Week after week, Vegas seems unable to accurately predict a Browns’ game. When Cleveland does win ATS, they blow the spread out of the water. In their bad weeks, the Browns are not even close to covering.
The bookies have no clue what is going to happen when the Browns take the field. Use this to your advantage. Don’t fall for the spread storyline. Assume the game will not play out as Vegas predicts and take some shots. Bet some contrarian spread or prop bets. Take a few risks.
Don’t feel bad if the Browns perplex you. Vegas is perplexed too.
Dolphins First Win is Not Surprising
I do not claim to have predicted the Fins first win on Sunday, but I can honestly say I knew they had a great shot. Take a look at Miami’s 2019 spreads and results and I’ll tell you why.
|1||Ravens (home)||+7 MIA||59-10 BAL|
|2||Patriots (home)||+19 MIA||43-0 NE|
|3||Cowboys (away)||+22.5 MIA||31-6 DAL|
|4||Chargers (home)||+16.5 MIA||30-10 LAC|
|6||Redskins (home)||+4 MIA||17-16 WAS|
|7||Bills (away)||+16.5 MIA||31-21 BUF|
|8||Steelers (away)||+14 MIA||27-14 PIT|
|9||Jets (home)||+3 MIA||26-18 MIA|
Vegas was horribly off in both of Miami’s first 2 games this year – overestimating the Dolphins by several touchdowns.
By Week 3, Vegas had Miami figured out. From Week 3 to Week 8, the predicted spread for Miami’s games were an average of 3.3 points off from the final score.
That’s some deadly accuracy. Vegas has no clue what to set the Browns’ spreads at, but they sure have the Dolphins pegged.
Heading into Week 9, I knew that a +3 spread meant Miami had an excellent chance of winning the game. I had faith that Vegas would once again be in the right ballpark and the contest would be close.
With an 8-point Dolphins victory, the final score ended up being 11 points off the spread – Vegas’ largest miss on a Dolphins game since Week 2.
The line for Miami’s Week 10 battle with Indy is currently MIA +10.5 (-115) with a Colts’ moneyline of (-500). I am going to once again trust Vegas’ judgement and hammer the Colts’ ML.
See you on top!