Back when the streak reached 9, I wrote about it. Now it’s at 11!
I am talking, of course, about the pride of the Southland conference – Sam Houston St basketball. Not only have the Bearkats (sic) won all 11 of their games in the 2019 calendar year, but they have won each ATS as well!
How crazy is that? Vegas keeps underestimating these orange warriors, leading to a run unlike anything we have seen in years. Check out this table of recent results for SAMHOU.
|vs Abilene Christian||71-68||+2.5|
|@ Central Arkansas||78-69||+2|
|vs Incarnate Word||66-52||-12|
|vs Texas A&M CC||72-50||-5.5|
|@ Houston Baptist||71-65||EVEN|
|@ NW State||78-64||-7.5|
|@ SE Louisiana||62-52||-3|
|vs Stephen F Austin||94-72||-6.5|
|vs McNeese St||77-62||-11|
|@ Abilene Christian||90-85||+3|
Vegas has tabbed the ‘Kats as dogs thrice in this run, showing they do not fully understand the magic that is SAMHOU basketball. Big favorite, small favorite, dog … it doesn’t matter. Sam Houston St is on a mission. They are winning games and crushing the spread while doing it.
This streak is important for two reasons:
Reason #1 – Sam Houston St is One Win Away from Unprecedented History
Thanks to Killersports.com we have NCAA betting info dating back to the 2006-07 season. It should be no surprise that 11-game SU win streaks are quite common in college basketball. This is to be expected when the nation’s best teams only drop a few contests per year. I would parallel this feat to having a 2-home run game in baseball. It’s a nice accomplishment, but it won’t go down in history as legendary.
11-game ATS win streaks, while very rare, are not unheard of. I would equate these to perfect games in the MLB. We have seen 7 separate 11-game ATS win streaks since 2006, compared to 6 perfect games. It’s big news when Vegas allows someone to rattle off 11 straight against their spread.
Only twice in our database has a college basketball team won 11 straight both SU and ATS. This is like a pitcher throwing a perfect game and getting an RBI – a feat only accomplished thrice in the MLB.
Winning 12 straight SU AND ATS is like a pitcher throwing a perfect game AND hitting two home runs from the plate … unheard of. This is exactly what SAMHOU has the chance to do on Wednesday night.
The only two teams to ever go a perfect 11-0 on both fronts were Gonzaga in January of 2017 and St Louis in March of 2013. The Bulldogs won their 12th game SU but lost ATS. St Louis lost both SU and ATS in their bid for a twelfth.
The line has not yet been released for SAMHOU’s Wednesday night clash with Texas A&M-CC. I will be eagerly awaiting that release.
Reason #2 – The Public Has Yet to Buy In
Here is what normally happens: A team wins a few straight games, gaining the trust of the easily-influenced betting public. Trying to cash in on the hot team, thousands flock to their bookies to get a piece of the pie. The influx of money on the hot team drives the line unsustainably high and the team loses ATS as a result.
Here is what seems to be happening: Either no one realizes the incredible run that SAMHOU is on or they do not have faith it will continue. I mean, for gosh sakes, the conference leader with 10 straight wins was an underdog their last time out. Seems like a classic case of disrespect to me. You know what sports bettors call disrespect? Value.
Here is how I will navigate Wednesday’s game: To avoid falling for the spread storyline, I will first look back at historical spreads against Texas A&M-CC and similar-caliber teams to determine what an appropriate line should be. I will then await the release of the point spread for the game.
I will compare Wednesday’s spread with where the data says it should be. If I feel SAMHOU is still being disrespected, I will gladly make the bookies pay. If I feel Vegas has finally corrected the line, I will fade.
See you on top, boppers!