It’s bowl season in CFB and Week 15 in the NFL. College basketball, the NBA, and the NHL are all in full swing. There is no excuse for a sports bettor to be stagnant right now.
Here is my NBA hook. Did you know that NBA games are the most predictable of the 4 major sports? Here is why:
Crazy, fluke plays are impossible to predict but they occur often in all sports.
In the NFL, teams typically score 20ish points per game. One fluke touchdown could account for one-third of a team’s total points. This is a major swing.
In the MLB, teams typically score 4 or 5 runs per game. One home run or bases-clearing hit could account for 50-75% of a team’s runs that game. Again, a major impact on the outcome.
In the NHL, teams typically score 3 or 4 goals per game. One crazy sequence leading to a goal will increase a team’s score by 25-33% – quite influential on the outcome.
The NBA is a different beast. Teams routinely score 100 points. There are dozens of scoring opportunities for either side.
One crazy shot will increase a team’s score from 105 to 108. This is far less substantial than increasing a football team’s score from 13 to 20 with one play.
Basketball is not a game defined by anomalies and chunk plays. It is a war of attrition.
Some bettors love the predictability of the NBA. Others hate it and strangely find comfort in the randomness of the MLB and NFL.
No matter your stance on the sport, I’m sure you wouldn’t mind earning a little extra money this time of year. Here is a sizzling hot trend with the power to coat your pockets with cash before Christmas.
West Coast Overs Following a Loss
One of the hottest NBA trends of 2019 has been west coast overs. Bet the over in any game played in the Pacific time zone in which the road team lost their previous game.
Here is a month-by-month chart for this trend for the 2019-20 season.
|Month||# of Games||Under Record (%)||ROI|
|October, 2019||5||4-1 (80%)||52.7%|
|November, 2019||16||10-6 (62.5%)||19.3%|
|December, 2019||4||4-0 (100%)||90.9%|
The simpler a trend, the better. Simplicity helps us deduce why a particular trend is working and makes it easier to predict whether the trend will continue.
This system seems fairly logical. Here is what I’m thinking:
All of the Pacific time zone NBA teams are in the Pacific Division (with the exception of Portland). A road game in the Pacific time zone usually means a West Coast road trip of 3-4 games is in progress.
Which teams are making the most West Coast road trips? Eastern Conference teams.
The East is quite weak. Most of the NBA’s elite reside out West. Forcing the Eastern teams to travel across the country and play multiple road games in a row gives the home, Western teams a substantial advantage.
The home teams know they can compound this advantage by playing fast and wearing out an already tired visiting team.
It’s that time of year. Got to block out the distractions and juggle all the action across a variety of sports. See you on top!