Most Stackable Bullpens of 2019

Stacking is a common strategy in large-pool daily fantasy baseball contests. Stacking is simply selecting multiple players from the same MLB team into your lineup. This is very effective when that team catches fire and puts up a crooked number.

I have found that it is easier to predict which pitching staffs will implode than it is to predict a breakout offensive performance.

My goal today is to analyze MLB bullpens. Much attention is given to starting pitching, but bullpens are being given more and more responsibility.

A starting pitcher is just one guy. A bullpen has many moving parts. It is a lot trickier to get a bunch of moving parts on the same page than it is for one guy to be on. If a bullpen is going to be “shutdown”, multiple pitchers need to do their jobs.

Chances are that a bullpen will not be shutdown. There are going to be bumps along the way. Some teams are more used to those bullpen bumps than others. Here is my breakdown.

Just Walk Them In, Why Don’t Ya?

One great creator of bullpen bumps – walks. Relievers that walk a lot of batters will not stay in the MLB for long. Using FanGraphs team stats, I put together the top-4 (or bottom-4) in bullpen walks per nine innings. These 4 bullpens have walked the most batters this year.

Team	BB/9
Mariners	5.2
Cubs	5.0
Marlins	4.9
Braves	4.8
League Avg	3.9

The Mariners have fallen hard over the past several weeks, now sitting dead last in the AL West. Their most glaring weakness? A terrible pen. Walking over 5 batters per nine innings is a recipe for disaster.

The Mariners have allowed 8 runs or more 14 times this season, and it is easy to see why!

Despite not appearing on the BB/9 list, the Orioles and Royals bullpens’ throw their fair share of pitches outside the strike zone.

Pitching from behind in the count is a lose-lose situation. You either walk the guy or give him a meatball right down the middle to hit.

Below are the 4 bullpens who throw the fewest strikes in the MLB. The Orioles lead this category. 39.5% of their pitches are balls. Disaster is inevitable.

Team	Ball%
Orioles	39.5%
Cubs	38.8%
Mariners	38.7%
Royals	38.3%

The Orioles have allowed at least 8 on 15 separate occasions this year. They have played only 50 games. That means Baltimore allows at least 8 runs in 30% of their games … horrible.

Just Let Them Hit the Ball

Of course, walking the opposition around the bases is not the only way to allow runs. You stand to earn more fantasy points if your hitters are spraying the ball all over the field, not walking from base to base.

Line drives are king in baseball. Even with hitters’ fixation on launch angle, line drives have a much higher chance than fly balls of becoming hits.

Below are the 4 bullpens who allow the greatest percentage of line drives. When these guys get hit, they get hit hard.

Team	LD%
Reds	24.9%
Cubs	24.2%
Royals	23.8%
Indians	23.1%

I should note that the Cubs have appeared in each of the first 3 tables – that’s not good. Despite these terrible metrics, Chicago’s bullpen ERA is quite low – 8th lowest in the majors.

If the Cubs continue to walk batters and allow line drives, the runs will come. You can’t defy the odds and walk a tightrope forever.

Very similar to line drive percentage is hard hit percentage. This stat is very simple – what percentage of batted balls against you were hit hard?

Hard hit balls turn into trouble far more frequently than softly hit balls. It is difficult to slam the door on an opponent when you allow frozen rope after frozen rope.

On the left are the 4 bullpens which allow the hardest contact in baseball. On the right are the 4 bullpens which create the least soft contact. You do not want to be on either list.

Team	Hard%	Team	Soft%
Dodgers	41.3%	Blue Jays	14.7%
DBacks	41.1%	Padres	15.6%
Rangers	40.6%	Rockies	15.8%
Angels	40.6%	DBacks	15.9%

The Diamondbacks. Not only do they allow the 2nd-most hard contact in baseball but they rarely generate weak contact.

A slap-hitting shortstop connecting on a “meaningless” 2-run-homer in the 8th inning of a blowout can be the difference between your fantasy team missing the cut and finishing top-3.

The Diamondbacks are bottom-10 in both bullpen ERA and bullpen homers allowed. This is a great team to stack your hitters against.

Tacking on Insurance Runs

Using KillerSports MLB data, I ran the numbers to see which teams allow the most “late runs”. I am calling a late run any run scored in the 6th, 7th, 8th, or 9th inning. Extra innings do not count because they skew the data.

Here are the 6 teams that have allowed 6 late runs most often in 2019.

Team	6 Late Runs
Tigers	8
Orioles	7
Nationals	6
Braves	5
Rangers	5
Phillies	5

It is no surprise that we see a lot of cellar-dwellers on this list. Hard to win a game when you allow 6 after the 5th inning.

The Tigers are becoming a team we want to stack against. Detroit’s pen is allowing the 2nd-most home runs in the majors and their bullpen ERA is 4th-highest. As the temperature increases in Detroit, those home runs are due to tick upward.

I upped the criteria an extra run – seeing who allows 7 late runs the most. The culprit is a team that was already on our radar – Baltimore.

Team	7 Late Runs
Orioles	7
Braves	4
Brewers	4
Rangers	4
Tigers	4

Next time you are filling out a daily fantasy lineup, making an over/under bet, or simply trying to sound informed when discussing baseball, don’t forget to factor in the bullpens. They matter way more than you think.

See you on top, boppers!