It’s the end of April 2018 – about a year ago. Expectations are low in Rain City. The M’s begin the season as underdogs, but then begin mashing the ball all over the park.
No one sees this coming, as evidenced by an average Vegas line of +112 through the first month. Despite the lack of faith from the experts, Seattle rolls to a 16-11 April record while the total goes over two-thirds of the time.
A 59% win rate at underdog odds nets Mariners bettors over $650 in April alone. One of two things is bound to happen: either Seattle begins losing or the odds quickly shift and lose their value.
Fast forward to the present day. The season is 12 games young for Seattle, but the M’s possess the league’s best record. There is some serious deja vu occurring as the average Mariners Vegas line thus far in 2019 is … +108.
Check out these similarities.
| Year | SU Record | Avg Line | Profit | Over % |
| April 2018 | 16-11 | +112 | $665 | 66.7% |
| April 2019 | 10-2 | +108 | $960 | 90.9% |
Last year, the Mariners ranked as baseball’s 5th most profitable team in the month of April. In 2019, the M’s are #1 by a large margin.
Why is it that Vegas has underestimated Seattle for the second season in a row? The hitting. Feast your eyes on these gaudy numbers.
| AVG | SLG | HR | R | SB | |
| Total | .278 | .550 | 27 | 85 | 14 |
| AL Rank | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Complete and utter offensive dominance – that’s why the Mariners have won so many early games. Seattle also leads the league in doubles, walks, OPS, total bases, and sacrifice flies. The M’s rank second in OBP and in the number of batters hit by the pitch.
A phenomenal hitting display leading to a breakout first month – how long can we expect it to last? When did Seattle begin to fade last year? Here are the month-by-month numbers from 2018.
| Totals Thru | SU Record | Avg Line | Profit | Over % |
| April | 16-11 | +112 | $665 | 66.7% |
| May | 34-22 | -112 | $948 | 51.8% |
| June | 53-31 | -108 | $2,024 | 51.2% |
| First Half | 55-43 | -110 | $1,707 | 49.5% |
The month of June was an ever-giving gift for Mariners bettors last season. On July 1st, Seattle proudly held the honor of baseball’s most profitable team thanks to a month in which they netted over $1,000. Offensive production had leveled off a bit, but the M’s could not be stopped.
July is when it all started to go south. Seattle closed out the first half of the season with a 2-12 record in the games preceding the All-Star break, obviously cutting into their profits. The Mariners were baseball’s most profitable team just two weeks prior but entered the break 3rd behind Boston and Oakland.
Did Seattle collect themselves during the break and kick things back into gear? Not even close. The skid continued.
Post All-Star break, the Mariners sported a 30-34 record with an average line of -107.6 – inflated due to their first-half success.
M’s bettors who were treated so well before the break suffered a -$617 second half. Are the Mariners a good bet right now? Yes. Will this opportunity last forever? No.
Strike while the iron is hot, boppers. See you on top!
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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