The UFC heads to Europe this weekend for UFC Fight Night 145: Blachowicz vs. Santos, set to take place in Prague, Czech Republic.
It’s the first time the promotion steps foot into the Czech Republic, and we’re here to run you through everything you need to know before the event to beat the bookmakers.
We hope you’ve been following our plays recently because we’ve started 2019 perfectly, with four winning outcomes from four events.
- + 0.45 unit profit at UFC on ESPN 1
- + 1 unit profit at UFC 234
- + 5.15 unit profit at UFC Fight Night 144
- + 1.12 unit profit at UFC Fight Night 143
That means we’re up 7.72 units for the year already, and we’re only just coming up to the end of February.
But for now, let’s move on to analyzing the UFC Fight Night 145 event and extracting value where possible.
Jan Blachowicz vs. Thiago Santos
Jan Blachowicz vs. Thiago Santos is the kind of main event matchup that you would never think was possible this time last year.
At the time, Santos had managed four consecutive victories and was looking dominant, but he was competing at middleweight and seemingly had no intention of moving to 205-pounds. Blachowicz, too, was on a winning streak but it was against Jared Cannonier and Devin Clark, not nearly enough to earn a spot at the top of a fight card.
However, both fighters have continued to impress and entertain, and it makes for what should be a thrilling main event between two heavy-hitting light heavyweight fighters.
Jan Blachowicz vs. Thiago Santos Odds
Not only is this bout an exciting one, but it’s also incredibly well matched.
Approximately 85% of bookmakers have this one as a pick ’em fight, and Pinnacle has the sharpest odds of any bookmakers with -106 on either side.
Blachowicz had initially opened up as a +120 underdog on most sites, whereas Santos could be found at -140 on many, as well. But Blachowicz’s odds have since shifted -13%, a movement that kills our return (as you’ll later discover).
Breaking down Blachowicz vs. Santos
This fight is a fun one to break down. Neither fighter is the most technically sound mixed martial artist you’ll ever watch inside the Octagon, but they’re both extremely powerful and exciting.
Blachowicz is arguably the more technical of the two, now using a consistent jab to disrupt the flow of his opponent before ducking his head and blitzing forward. This forward movement is often accompanied by a flurry of wild strikes, hoping to ping the head of his opponent and clip them hard enough to fall. As aggressive and ruthless as these forward blitzes may sound, Blachowicz is surprisingly accurate throughout the rush. Going into this fight with Santos, Blachowicz has maintained a 50% striking accuracy so far in the UFC – the same accuracy as his opponent.
But despite these similarities in accuracy, both fighters couldn’t be any more different on the feet. Blachowicz prefers to work with his hands, utilizing his boxing advantages. Santos is more likely to stay back and melt his opponent’s body, legs, and head with kicks of all sorts. Santos, the Brazilian, has no business at close range, preferring to launch those long-range bombs that have proven to be devastating. He has power that is seemingly unbelievable and has demolished all kinds of fighters who have stood in his way. A well-timed kick to the midsection or a cumulative effect of Santos’ leg kicks can take an immediate toll on even the most durable of fighters.
With Santos looking to stay away and smoke Blachowicz from long range, expect Blachowicz’s forward blitzes to make a real impact in this one. If Blachowicz moves forward consistently enough, he’ll be able to keep Santos from planting his feet and uncorking one of his fight-changing kicks. And if Blachowicz can land strikes while moving forward, he’s likely to rack up enough damage to either stop the fight in the middle-to-late rounds, or take a decision win.
This a matchup that suits the smarter, more technical fighter, and more often than not, it would be Blachowicz walking out the victor in Prague.
Bet on Jan Blachowicz to win: -106 at Pinnacle
Gian Villante vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Gian Villante will step into the cage with Michal Oleksiejczuk in Prague hoping to end his horrendous streak of split decision outcomes.
All four of Villante’s last contests have ended via split decision, and he’s won just two of them. The 33-year-old also hasn’t won consecutive fights since April 2015.
Oleksiejczuk made his UFC debut in December 2017, in which he earned a decision win against Khalil Rountree. The result was overturned after the fight, however, after Oleksiejczuk was deemed to have violated the UFC Anti-Doping Policy. Regardless of the eventual outcome, Oleksiejczuk will enter this fight on an impressive 14-fight winning streak.
Gian Villante vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Odds
The reason why Villante is involved in so many split decisions is mostly because he is a fighter who is continually dragged down to the level of his opponent. If he’s fighting a brawler, Villante will brawl with them as well, rather than utilizing his heavily underrated wrestling to gain an advantage. And even when he has a major advantage on the feet, he doesn’t make the most of it, either, as we saw against Ed Herman, who touched up Villante at times despite being the slower fighter.
Much like Villante, Oleksiejczuk is a fighter who welcomes a scrap and will often be caught walking forward slinging bombs from all angles. While effective most of the time, it’s not a strategy that should be continually relied upon and it’s surprising that Oleksiejczuk has strung 14 these wins together in a row fighting in this style.
Many fans are expecting Oleksiejczuk to run through the older, more experienced opponent by what we’ve seen from Oleksiejczuk in the past. But Villante is durable enough to take some of his best shots and give plenty of his own back in return. This has all the makings of a fight that is finished near the end of the first round or during the second, and we’re going to cash in on the excellent value for a stoppage in this fight.
Bet on Under 2.5 Rounds: +165 at SportBet
Read More:
- Beginner’s Guide to UFC Betting
- What’s different between weight classes in the UFC?
- 5 MMA Betting Experts Talk UFC Gambling Strategies, Advice, and Best Tips
Jake is a mixed martial arts reporter from Australia. At WagerBop, he merges his appreciation of combat sports and a strong passion for analytics to uncover opportunities for readers.
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