Like a well-rounded restaurant, this week’s NFL schedule has some appetizers, main dishes, and desserts.
I am writing about this slate of games as a menu not just because I am currently hungry, but because there are several types of bets available. It all depends what you are in the mood for.
Appetizers are safe bets with a high chance of winning. They do not pay out as much as the big boppers, however, and will leave you hungry. Main dishes are our regular, carefully calculated value bets. These are the meat and potatoes of our grind. Finally, dessert is a helping of fun, high-risk bets that have the potential to payout in a major way.
Let’s first sample the appetizers.
High-Probability Week 6 Plays (Appetizers)
Cardinals @ Vikings (-550) – 10/14 1:00 ET
Just because a team is 10.5-point favorites and -550 on the moneyline does not mean they are a sure thing to win. Just ask … um … the Vikings … three weeks ago.
Before you roll your eyes, just know that I am asking you to give the Vikings a second-chance as large favorites this week. When they lost as 17-point favorites to the Bills, it was significant in many aspects.
One such aspect is the fact that the Vikings had not lost as 10+ point favorites since 2001! Going 17 years without such a loss has to be worth something, right? I like the odds that Minnesota will not lose two of these games in a four-week span.
If you need more reassurance, consider the fact that the Vikings are 29-9-2 ATS at home since late in the 2013 season.
Not only do I love their chances of winning SU, but I reason to believe they will win ATS, also. For an appetizer though, stick to the Vikings moneyline. We’ll get our fill later in the meal.
Week 6 Value Plays (Main Course – Meat and Potatoes)
49ers (+9.5) @ Packers – 10/15 8:15 ET
Think about Aaron Rodgers. What are some adjectives that come to mind? Winner, clutch, big-time. What about “chokes in primetime games”?
The numbers do not lie, when the Niners and Packers meet on Monday night, Aaron Rodgers will be in uncomfortable territory. Take a look at the Packers records in Sunday and Monday Night Football games over the past several seasons.
* through Week 5
Not at all what you would expect from the great “Number 12,” now is it? Throw in the fact that Rodgers is battling a knee injury, and his performance could really suffer.
Of course, Rodgers could come out and kill it. He is still Aaron Rodgers. The numbers are in the 49ers’ favor, however, so that is where we should put our money.
I’ll help myself to a big serving of 49ers football Monday night! Take SF +9.5.
Week 6 Parlay (Dessert)
They say parlays are -EV and that we should never bet them, but c’mon. Sometimes you just gotta eat a piece of cake.
If I was craving something sweet, I might just parlay my appetizer and main course PLUS throw in one more game for good measure.
If you read my article on the Chiefs last week, you know I am predicting New England to hand Andy Reid his first blemish of 2018. Read up if you want a fuller explanation, but I am taking the Patriots -3 over KC all day!
If we combine these 3 picks into a wicked parlay, our odds would look something like this. Note that for the parlay, I am going even riskier by betting the Vikings ATS rather than simply to win.
Not a bad way to finish a meal and fatten both our bellies and wallets! Bon appetit, folks.