Week 8 CFB Odds and Picks: Penn State vs Minnesota ATS and Friday Night AAC Prediction

So the Tennessee Volunteers finally scored their statement win of a campaign (hopefully not of a generation) by defeating Alabama in a near-100 point shoot-out. This comes after WagerBop’s discussion of how NCAA outcomes are getting more “Any Given Sunday”-like just as Friday Night Lights scores are beginning to fluctuate like FBS match-ups.

Can there be any more live underdogs than in a season in which App State defeated the SEC’s upper tier, then lost to FCS-to-FBS newcomer James Madison? Probably not. The “super-senior” and transfer-tastic effects of the COVID-era have created chaos 2 years down the road. But that doesn’t mean you can’t open the sportsbook on Friday and find a bunch of wrongly-priced bets on favored teams, either. At this point, it’s not so much the live-underdog factor but the momentum-factor that bookies appear to be overlooking.

Las Vegas is right that Georgia Tech is a freed institution with the insufferable Geoff Collins out of the picture – but the focus on whether the Yellow Jackets can keep it up may be causing handicappers to whiff on Thursday’s larger narrative. In other words, GT can be a solid point-spread pick in spite of itself against the right underdog – an underdog with sparing momentum to bring to the table and a vulnerable-enough defense. It’s the same concept with our pick on this Wednesday night’s game in Boone – why would the bookmakers ignore such as simple angle as how a coach thinks of his offense?

Don’t worry – we’ll get to Saturday’s feast of odds, including what’s sure to be an anticipated weekend pick on the Alabama’s next kickoff. But with the mid-week slate of FBS action expanding again, it’s worth it to try to get a jump on the markets while others sit pat.

Georgia State Panthers at Appalachian State Mountaineers (Wednesday, October 19)

Fans might wonder if weekday MAC-tion is even going to be a thing this season. As stated a few weeks ago on this scroll, it feels rather like the fast-improving Sun Belt and Mountain West are trying to claim the Midwestern Athletic Conference’s grip on early-week FBS football. But no worries, on November 1st, MAC football will perform a veritable coup over all weekday pigskin when the Group-of-5 league debuts a Tues-Weds schedule featuring the hard-hitting Kent State Golden Flashes and a spectacular date between Buffalo and Ohio. It makes for a nice “quality over quantity” theme for the MAC, which while exciting this year, may not have quite the number of dynamite ‘dogs in 2022-23 as the surprisingly-deep Sun Belt league.

For instance, this Wednesday’s game between Appalachian State (-10.5) and visiting GSU presents a challenge at the sportsbook—how does App State play as a heavy favorite?

We know the Mountaineers are amongst the most live underdogs on a Saturday when facing the Power-5, and a promising low-risk moneyline pick vs the Top 25. However, over the past few weeks, Appalachian State has been poor as a favorite, upsetting the loyal fans in Boone by losing to teams off the national FBS radar.

You can see why the Mountaineers would be exhausted, mentally and physically, after a pair of dramatic season-opening bouts against the ACC and SEC. But the otherwise troubled defense at Appalachian State performed mental hand-stands in shutting out The Citadel and its dynamic running game in an FBS vs FCS match-up, and actually triumphed in its follow-up contest over Troy after conquering Texas A&M in another iconic upset.

Is there anything in common at James Madison and Texas State that offers a clue to how (and where) App State is weak while hung over from the team’s early accomplishments?

Stats of opposing rush yards and ball control are not as much of a key as usual. Strangely, it seems like App State has preserved some of its game-control strengths from Weeks 1-3 while simply folding up in other areas. The App State defense didn’t allow an enormous yardage total from Texas State, and James Madison’s offense did nothing remarkable until the heroic rally in the 4th frame by the Dukes. The ground game, a cornerstone of the pigskin school’s punishing win over Texas A&M, has degenerated as badly as any in the FBS. After winning the line-of-scrimmage against a much bigger program from the Lone Star State, Appalachian State was stunted at the LOS by modest Texas State. There is, remarkably, no major rash of offensive-line injuries to report; in fact, the Appalachian State ground attack has been getting healthier with tailback Nate Noel back in the fold. But in Week 6, Noel was limited to a ghastly 19 yards.

FanDuel’s O/U (59.5) point-total line assumes that Appalachian State QB Chase Brice will be turned loose on Georgia State with the running game failing. However, the Mountaineers’ backbone is extremely tied to physical blocking and ball control. HC Shawn Clark could be imagining GSU as a get-well opponent for his all-important RBs, since GSU has been bad against teams that run explosively out of shotgun formations.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (59.5)

Virginia Cavaliers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (Thursday, October 20)

Under former AD Todd Stansbury, Georgia Tech fell into a fatal and familiar pattern. GT replaced a Flexbone coach with an NFL-playbook specialist, Geoff Collins, who subtly criticized skipper Paul Johnson’s previous brand as badly conceived and recruited. As the saying goes, Collins went on to win every press conference. He also won fewer football games for Georgia Tech through 4 seasons than Johnson’s program won in a single campaign in 2014. Collins’ recruiting classes have yet to produce a marquee professional athlete, while NFL stars Darren Waller, Shaq Mason, and Harrison Butker were each recruited and coached by Johnson.

Collins and Stansbury’s mid-season dismissals introduce another familiar scene, the humble-yet-somehow-cocky interim coach who’s got a team playing much better now that the main villain in town rode away. GT’s Brent Key has the Ramblin’ Wreck rising up the ACC standings following an OT win over Duke, and GT is a (-3.5) point spread favorite against Virginia on Thursday.

It is doubtful that Georgia Tech will contend for a division title, as the Yellow Jackets still have an offense of 3-star academic wizards trying to implement a system designed for NFL rosters to excel with. The Virginia Cavaliers, however, don’t have their outstanding defense of 5-6 years ago, and have resumed losing in lopsided fashion following a heartbreaker at Syracuse.

WagerBop’s Pick: Georgia Tech ATS (-3.5)

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Temple Owls (Friday, October 21)

The wilting defense at Temple (+12.5) is similar to the storyline of App State’s entire team this season, thriving early against Louisiana and Rutgers only to be trounced by the Memphis Tigers and embarrassed 70-13 on October 13th by the UCF Knights. Tulsa’s 51 points allowed to Navy on the prior weekend could make bettors question this Friday’s Over/Under (52.5) point-total line, but Tulsa’s stock against-the-spread has been diminished unfairly due to the Navy loss.

There’s been exhaustion on “Tulsa Time” as well, as the Golden Hurricane previously lost by a combined 2 touchdowns and change to Mississippi State and Cincinnati before getting side-swiped by the improving Middies. A fortnight’s break should be good medicine for Friday night’s guests.

WagerBop’s Pick: Tulsa ATS (-12.5)

Navy Midshipmen at Houston Cougars (Saturday, October 22)

FanDuel‘s (52.5) point-total line on Houston vs Navy correctly overlooks recent high-scoring games in Navy’s season, as the 3-3 Mids are going with a more cautious, slower-paced offense than in past year. However, the Houston Cougars have almost spent generations petrifying Navy with swing passes and other speed-based plays, compelling Annapolis into shoot-out types of games that play into Houston’s strengths.

The match-up this season should be no different, with veteran QB Clayton Tune‘s team coming off a theatrical comeback win over Memphis.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (52.5)

Boston College Eagles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Saturday, October 22)

Ranked 13th in the FBS, Wake Forest is unbeaten in regulation time, and hasn’t lost in nearly a calendar year to anyone but Clemson. Those angles play into Wake’s prohibitive (-2300) odds to thrash visiting Boston College on Saturday. But are bookmakers too quick to imagine a blow-out of BC with the Eagles having given-up only 31 points to the highly-ranked Clemson Tigers prior to getting 2 weeks off?

Wake might not be a great pick ATS, but the Demon Deacons are likely to be a terrific 2nd-half prop bet to cover live-points or win for live-odds if the game is close after 2 quarters. The fighting defense of Boston College will do everything in the early going to hold Wake Forest’s high-tempo attack, but against a gassed-up host. It’s hard to keep the bough from breaking when you can’t complete 1-in-2 pass attempts or run very well.

Against Clemson, BC’s offense was a sorry unit that might have played 2-3 more quarters without scoring any meaningful points. We are imagining a tight opening half and a Wake walk-over in the 3rd and 4th quarters. But don’t select any live-betting markets on the Demon Deacons to cover “minus 50” if the game is already a steam-roll at half.

WagerBop’s Pick: Wake Forest ATS (Halftime Pick, Pending Single-Digit Scoreboard Margin)

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide (Saturday, October 22)

WagerBop’s preseason picks on Georgia and Alabama are looking a little unsteady after 2 months of the season. However, we’re confident that each pick is still in the inside-lane for a national title run. That does not mean ‘Bama is the type of pick against-the-spread that it was in the recent past, especially since Alabama shouldn’t be depending on 50-point games from a repaired Bryce Young. The team’s era of great defense may have come to a conclusion.

What will be Alabama’s response to a truly rare loss at Tennessee? Defeating Top 25 conference rival Mississippi State by 3 touchdowns or so, if you ask Las Vegas. FBS odds-makers believe that Mississippi State’s fast tempo, combined with the deadly passing game of Young, will produce a game with more possessions than the typical SEC smashmouth challenge, making it probable that Alabama (-20.5) will conquer by at least 3 “successful turns” in an explosive game that includes 20-25 total possessions.

Those being the circumstances, why is the Over/Under set at a cautious (61.5) total points for a breathless scrimmage in which defensive stops could come at a premium?

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (61.5)

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday, October 22)

Minnesota (+4.5) has been overvalued at the betting board more than once this season, and it has once again happened prior to Saturday’s prime-time meeting with Top-25 host Penn State.

Out of the gate in 2022-23, the 4-2 Golden Gophers impressed with 4 consecutive lopsided wins. But things have taken a menacing turn in Minneapolis since then. With a concussion, QB Tanner Morgan has been knocked-out, and the offense with its starter for more than 60:00 of game clock had already looked flat-as-a-pancake.

Minnesota boosters are horrified at the lack of consistency from the offensive line, a troubling trend that could lead to more costly injuries at skill positions. Which is bad news when taking on a highly-tuned squad that’s burning from a marquee loss to Michigan.

The blocking and tackling at PSU can’t be rated as merely on par with the ailing Golden Gophers in Week 8. The angles behind Penn State’s paltry point-spread margin include head coach James Franklin’s undesirable press coverage following the Michigan game, and the fact that the Northwestern Wildcats hung around as weighted underdog in Happy Valley on 10/1. Nevertheless, point spreads were covered effortlessly by the favored Nittany Lions in the 3 weeks before that, including over an Auburn team that’s still tough in the trenches.

WagerBop’s Pick: Penn State ATS (-4.5)