Bellator 207 Betting Guide

Bellator will keep fight fans busy with two epic heavyweight clashes headlining separate cards this weekend.

On Friday, October 12, Matt Mitrione will face Ryan Bader at Bellator 207 in the first of two semifinal matchups of the Bellator World Heavyweight Grand Prix. One day later, Fedor Emelianenko will collide with Chael Sonnen in the other semifinal at Bellator 208.

We’ve analyzed Bellator 207’s main card and it’s now time to bring you our findings for all of the action taking place at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. Here you’ll find the same bets that we’ll be placing this weekend, using the same strategy that has helped us profit from three of the last four major mixed martial arts events.

Let’s get started!

Matt Mitrione vs. Ryan Bader

If you are somehow unsurprised that Matt Mitrione and Ryan Bader are competing against each other in the semifinals of a heavyweight tournament at Bellator in 2018, we don’t know what it would take to surprise you. Maybe the fact that Fedor Emelianenko and Chael Sonnen are doing the same thing is enough to make you scratch your head and wonder how we got to this stage.

Anyway, Mitrione and Bader are arguably the two toughest contenders remaining in the tournament, and they’re now scheduled to clash, with the victor going on to face the winner of Emelianenko vs. Sonnen in the third and final round.

Matt Mitrione vs. Ryan Bader odds:

• Matt Mitrione: +257 (SportBet)
• Ryan Bader: -250 (William Hill)

Unsurprisingly, Bader opened as a moderate betting favorite in this contest and has since been pummelled all the way from -210 to -280 at most bookmakers (besides William Hill, who still have excellent odds on Bader to win).

Matt Mitrione

Now on a four-fight winning streak and undefeated in Bellator after notable wins over Fedor Emelianenko and Roy Nelson, it could be difficult for the average fan to decipher why exactly Mitrione is a betting underdog in this contest against Bader.

Mitrione hasn’t been considered this much of a betting underdog since his mixed martial arts debut all the way back in 2009 at UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale. Despite entering that fight as a +274 underdog, Mitrione surprised everyone with a second-round KO/TKO victory before then proceeding to win his five fights as a professional. That means, despite being matched against the likes of Fedor Emelianenko, Travis Browne, Roy Nelson, Derrick Lewis, and other true heavyweight fighters in his career, Bader is perceived as the worst stylistic matchup for the 40-year-old.

Ryan Bader

With a win this weekend at Bellator 207, Ryan Bader will be one step closer to becoming Bellator’s first-ever simultaneous two-division champion. Rory MacDonald tried (and failed) to do so just recently, but Bader has a surprisingly real chance of achieving this incredible feat.

We say surprisingly because Bader is, in fact, a light heavyweight, and currently reigns over the promotion’s 205 lbs category. Just like Mitrione, Bader is undefeated since moving to Bellator and has racked up impressive wins over Muhammad Lawal, Linton Vassell, and a narrow split decision victory against Phil Davis. His good form extends further than merely his time in Bellator, as he has navigated his way to 10 wins in his last 11 fights.

Fight Breakdown

This is not your typical heavyweight matchup.

At a time when Derrick Lewis, a relatively unathletic and flat-footed heavyweight, is challenging for the UFC Heavyweight Championship, Mitrione and Bader will be battling in a highly-explosive and fast-paced fight between two gifted athletes.

Mitrione uses his athleticism to bounce in and out of striking range while destroying his opponent with fundamental boxing techniques such as the left cross. Despite being worked over by Roy Nelson on the mat for minutes at a time, Mitrione secured his last victory by entirely dominating Nelson while standing. The second round was about as good as we’ve seen Mitrione look while on the feet and he worked Nelson over with heavy leg kicks, penetrating body punches, and even the occasional high kick.

Standing across from him is Bader, who has improved his striking dramatically in recent years and now looks better than ever before. In his last outing, he crushed “King Mo” with solid left hook and ended the fight in just 15 seconds. But Bader’s pathway to victory isn’t going to be on the feet in this matchup, especially against the ever-dangerous Mitrione.

Instead, Bader’s likely to win this contest by relying on his wrestling alone. His effective double-leg takedown will likely cause immense problems for Mitrione, who is known to become “stuck” on his feet when colliding with another opponent at close range. If Bader catches Mitrione coming forward, Mitrione will be forced to rely on his tendency of covering up and attempting to push his opponent away before getting back to a safe distance. Expect Bader to drop down and secure the double-leg takedown with ease.

It’d be rude to say that this fight merely comes down to the wrestling discrepancy, but that’s likely the case.

Expect Ryan Bader to advance to the next round of the Bellator World Heavyweight Grand Prix.

Bet on Ryan Bader to win: -250 at William Hill

Bellator 207 Main Card

Although most of the attention will be on the brilliant main event, there is still an opportunity to cash in on the Bellator 207 main card.

Roy Nelson vs. Sergei Kharitonov

In the co-main event of the evening, Roy Nelson will attempt to bounce back in a heavyweight matchup with Sergei Kharitonov.

Roy Nelson vs. Sergei Kharitonov Odds

• Roy Nelson: -310 (BetOnline)
• Sergei Kharitonov: +273 (SportBet)

Nelson was eliminated in the first round of the Bellator World Heavyweight Grand Prix by Matt Mitrione and is already calling for a rubber match with the explosive heavyweight. If he wants Bellator to grant his wish, he’ll likely need to secure a victory against the returning Sergei Kharitonov.

Kharitonov is an impressive heavyweight who has spent his career competing in Pride, Dream, Strikeforce, M-1 Challenge, a wide range of other promotions. Unfortunately for Kharitonov, his Bellator debut didn’t go as planned and he was stopped by the heavy-handed Javy Ayala in only 16 seconds. He’s since worked up a four-fight winning streak elsewhere.

Nelson was completely outmatched by Mitrione’s fast footwork and technical boxing ability in his last bout. We’re expecting him to bounce back with ease against Kharitonov, who is relatively slow on his feet and will likely be a very hittable target for Nelson’s power punches and/or an easy target for Nelson’s ground game.

Bet on Roy Nelson to win: -310 at BetOnline

Lorenz Larkin vs. Ion Pascu

Ion Pascu is Lorenz Larkin’s third scheduled opponent for Bellator 207, and we just hope there are no more late changes after two of Larkin’s originally scheduled opponent’s withdrew due to injury.

Lorenz Larkin vs. Ion Pascu Odds

• Lorenz Larkin: -700 (BetOnline)
• Ion Pascu: +545 (SportBet)

After leaving the UFC to join the ranks at Bellator, Larkin has looked surprisingly ordinary. The welterweight fell short against Douglas Lima and Paul Daley before eventually scoring a win in the promotion against Fernando Gonzalez. He’ll now look to make a statement against a short-notice opponent, Ion Pascu.

On paper, Ion Pascu doesn’t exactly stack up against Lorenz Larkin, but fights aren’t played out on paper. Pascu is a gritty fighter with decent wrestling ability and could certainly score an upset here against Larkin if he manages to grind him out through three rounds. The problem with that approach is that Larkin has great takedown defense and should be able to keep this fighting standing long enough to do his thing.

No bet

Kevin Ferguson Jr. vs. Corey Browning

Kevin Ferguson Jr. will look to keep his winning streak alive in a lightweight clash this weekend with Bellator newcomer Corey Browning.

Kevin Ferguson Jr. vs. Corey Browning Odds

• Kevin Ferguson Jr.: -725 (BetOnline)
• Corey Browning: +550 (BetOnline)

Since we aren’t be betting on this fight, either, we’ll keep it short.

This is Ferguson’s first fight in the lightweight division and we’re expecting him to be bigger and stronger than his opponent. Not just that, Ferguson is also developing quite well as a mixed martial artist and is adding vital techniques to his arsenal – further proving that he couldn’t be any more different than the street fighter perception that his father once had.

There’s not enough information out there on Browning right now to make an informed bet on this fight.

No bet

Carrington Banks vs. Mandel Nallo

If we were to compile a list of the best fights taking place this weekend, Carrington Banks vs. Mandel Nallo would be situated near the top of that list.

Carrington Banks vs. Mandel Nallo Odds

• Carrington Banks: -185 (BetOnline)
• Mandel Nallo: +185 (Bovada)

Banks’ perfect start to his career recently fell apart when he crossed Adam Piccolotti at Bellator 199 in May. The prospect was undefeated through seven fights and will now be looking to return to the winning column against Nallo, who is unbeaten through six fights. Nallo trains under Firas Zahabi at Tristar Gym in Ontario, Canada, and will be one of the most exciting additions to the Bellator roster in quite some time. He proved this completely when he finished Alec Williams with a perfect right high kick in just 18 seconds at Bellator 189 last year.

We’re excited to see Nallo up against someone the likes of Banks, for sure, but it’s hard to see this fight playing out in any other way than Banks outpowering and outworking Nallo through three rounds for a unanimous decision victory.

Bet on Carrington Banks to win: -185 (BetOnline)

Bellator 207 Best Bets

• Ryan Bader to win: -250 at William Hill
• Roy Nelson to win: -310 at BetOnline
• Carrington Banks to win: -185 at BetOnline

All of our bets are in line with our overall MMA betting strategy.