WagerBop Daily Double: Updated MLB Vegas Lines and Recommended Bets

Welcome to WagerBop’s Daily Double! Our new hardball blog includes previews and picks for at least 2 Major League Baseball games every day, updated nightly with Las Vegas odds and expected starting hurlers.

Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox

Sports gamblers have been flocking to pick low-side totals bets more often as legal online betting becomes more common, thanks to countless blogs advising players against “recreational” wagers designed for cheering. But there are ballgames for which all the caution-flags in the world can’t prevent speculators from impulse-buying a side, such as the series closer at Fenway Park on Thursday evening.

Oakland has already won the 3-night meeting by at least a single game, invading Beantown with quality pitching and (almost) error-free fielding. Nice batting from shortstop Elvis Andrus and a few other Athletics has produced enough runs for the visitors to win twice – not that it has taken fireworks from the plate with the Red Sox scoring 3 runs in 18 frames. Boston starter Garrett Richards is far from a sure bet to outpitch Oakland’s Sean Manaea, helping draw action to the guests’ ML while the Red Sox line (-108) fattens slightly.

However, the fact remains that a very good MLB team defending against a potential series-sweep on home turf can be a tough out, or at least a tough 27 outs. Boston might have leveled-off for the time being, but with both clubs reasonably healthy, we can expect a desperate and likely-winning effort from the Red Sox against an Oakland lineup that’s barely scoring 4 runs per game on the road.

Pick: Red Sox 

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

Another “defending against the sweep” scenario in the American League is getting overlooked due to renewed hype around the New York Yankees, who have won the first 2 ballgames of a 3-game stand in Tampa Bay. There’s no reason for the Rays’ moneyline (+135) to be as close to perfect 1-to-1 odds as the Run Line on Tampa (+1.5) (-135), as fans who are looking at Rich Hill vs Jameson Tallion and expecting a mismatch are seeing through pinstriped glasses. However, Tampa Bay’s higher-risk Run Line remains the higher % pick by far, since the Rays have played 3 single-run games in their last 5 outings, and would seem far too focused and filled with urgency to get blown away by the Yankees on Thursday.

Pick: Rays Run Line 

5/12/21

L.A. Angels at Houston Astros

There’s another bargain moneyline waiting for wise MLB speculators on Wednesday, and it’s in Space City, where an initial favorites’ ML on Houston in an Angels-at-Astros series closer almost immediately tightened into a 1-to-1 line at the open of betting action a day prior. Los Angeles has split 2 games at Minute Maid Park to stay above .500 as an underdog, a lone bright spot for gamblers tied to the Halos.

Andrew Heaney is the Angel starter ‘cappers are confident in, and Heaney definitely deserved better from his last appearance against Tampa Bay, fanning 10 Rays batters and allowing no earned runs only to watch the bullpen allow a snowman. Opposing hurler José Urquidy isn’t that kind of horse to ride, but as is often the case, there’s more than meets the eye in his numbers.

Urquidy is getting put-outs by the bushel without striking out a lot of players, kind of a modern-day Dennis Eckersley tactic that could be kryptonite for a Los Angeles lineup geared for slugging and keeping the ball in the air. Houston has begun to gather momentum after being knocked down a peg in April, and has been averaging (depending on the sample size) around 7 runs per-game against the L.A. Angels.

Pick: Astros 

Seattle Mariners at L.A. Dodgers

The “weighted bat” metaphor takes on special significance in the game from whence it originally sprang. Las Vegas believes Julio Urias of the L.A. Dodgers will benefit from hurling against the “wiffle bats” of Seattle after going through some episodes against the Angels, Brewers, and Reds, an angle which helped O/U (8) open with (+105) odds on the high side. However, the same could be true in reverse for scheduled Ms starter Justin Dunn, who looked pretty good against Baltimore prior to taking on the defending World Series champs. L.A.’s (-110) Run Line is juiced out of all value, but O(8) is a nice bet at bargain prices.

Pick: Over 

5/11/21

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

Las Vegas sportsbooks quickly corrected themselves on Colorado vs San Diego’s total, posting an Over/Under total of (9) and not (8) for Tuesday’s accidental opener. Which of Tuesday’s run totals could be inaccurate or mispriced as of Monday night, as bookmakers offer plus-odds on “Over” bets and dare speculators to take the high-side during a trend of cautious MLB games?

Over (7) for the Mets and Orioles is a nice fat market at (+105), but probable starters Marcus Stroman and John Means are reliable bat-killers this spring, and New York has been good on offense at home while Baltimore has been better from the plate in away games. Besides, both clubs have been crushing it in the rivalry from a run-scoring POV. Milwaukee vs St. Louis, while missing some sizzle (literally) in the brisk setting of Wisconsin, provides a better chance to win on a Tuesday O/U.

Freddy Peralta is pitching against Kwang Hyun Kim, a name-brand starting hurlers’ match-up. But neither man’s stats or stamina have been otherworldly in spring, and (+105) on O(7.5) is too pessimistic for Brewers-Cardinals no matter how well the NL Central clubs play defensively in the ballgame. St. Louis is scoring 5+ runs per game on the road, and Milwaukee is due for positive reversion at American Family Field. Both teams remain banged-up in the bullpen.

Pick: Over 

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox

Another MLB gambler’s gold rush to the low-side of a total characterizes action on Chicago vs Minnesota, a Tuesday opener at Guaranteed Rate Field. A divisional match-up between the struggling Twins and the host White Sox (-125) comes with with an (8.5) O/U line that’s getting more and more juiced on U(8.5), as speculators ponder an MLB landscape of ground balls and strike-outs that’s even got Coors Field run totals dipping below the current O/U number in Chi-Town.

There are reasons to doubt both batting orders, beginning with the Twins’ spring slump that includes a dismal series loss to the Texas Rangers and last weekend’s depressing split with Detroit. As for the ChiSox, a breezy sweep of the KC Royals felt easy enough, but a pair of previous shut-out losses to Cincinnati and Cleveland show what good pitching and quality defense can do to a developing team’s fragile formula for success.

Did anyone notice the tight moneyline on a ballgame between 2 disparate clubs? Probable visiting pitcher Kenta Maeda (who’s bound for an AEW title run with Kenny Omega on name-brand alone) seemed to find his form in giving Minnesota its only win over the Lone Stars, though a week’s rest helps to make Maeda’s appearance a question mark. No such uncertainty should surround Dylan Cease of the White Sox. Tuesday’s hosts have a bright upside, but more importantly, they’re playing up to that ceiling – at least for now – while the Twins labor to compete.

Pick: White Sox 

5/10/21

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

Major League Baseball betting for Tuesday, May 10th began with a pair of wild O/U line-movements, as if runs had been lifted from 1 total and added to another. An anticipated duel between Gibson and Wood is not only making the San Francisco vs Texas O/U line plummet, it’s threatening to pull the moneyline tighter than a guitar string. Meanwhile in Baltimore, a Monday closer between the sinking Orioles and the red-hot Boston Red Sox (-136) is inspiring so many high-side bets that the total jumped 1.5 runs after opening.

The prevailing handicap is understandable seeing as though probable pitcher Jorge Lopez has been inadequate for the O-Birds, while visiting starter Martin Perez is 0-2. However, the line has already risen logically to (8.5) and it’s too late to get in on the gold rush now.

Look instead to a favorites’ ML that’s tightened thanks to the good old “home team defending against potential sweep” angle. In the landscape of 2021 said angle is better utilized when a talented host has lost 2 hard-luck games of a 3-game stint. The Baltimore Orioles, conversely, are overwhelmed by a cranked-up contender, and probably know it inside the clubhouse.

Pick: Red Sox 

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

St. Louis’ 4-0 win over Colorado on Sunday was half-expected to be rained out, raising the conundrum of betting on MLB games threatened by nasty weather forecasts. It’s frustrating to think that a missed opportunity and a push could occur. However, the weather can also give speculators a leg-up on Sin City by creating angles not factored into opening consensus lines. To wit, take the (+100) price on O(8) vs (-120) for U(8) offered for Monday’s Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres contest, a sorely-needed return home for the Rox.

Yes, the STL series was a new low point for the Rockies, at least with bats in hand. The last-place club was held scoreless in 24 out of 27 innings, and shut out in promising batting conditions on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Pads have played in a few low-scoring series of their own recently, including a snoozefest with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

But the Denver ballplayers still know how to score in thin, friendly air, averaging 6+ runs per game at Coors Field. San Diego is expected to trot-out Dinelson Lamet, a hurler plagued with injuries, to go against 1-3 Antonio Senzatela. Wind may blow inward, but the temperature won’t abide blazing sliders, and the Padres have actually been a solid hitting team on the road. If the ballgame is postponed into a doubleheader on Tuesday, strongly consider the high side on any similar line with a similar pitching match-up for either 9 innings.

Pick: Over

5/9/21

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs

Anchor detail! Sin City’s run total for Sunday’s series closer between Chicago and visiting Pittsburgh has sunk 20,000 leagues below the sea, or at least a handful of tallies below the median average at (6) runs even after opening at (6.5). The noteworthy number calls into focus a pair of batting orders which have been swinging for the fences with inconsistent results.

It’s true that Pittsburgh’s offense is sagging badly on the road, as evidenced by the Cubs needing only 6 runs to manufacture a pair of 1-run victories and threaten a sweep at Wrigley Field. Starting hurlers Kyle Hendricks and Tyler Anderson’s legit numbers also belie a pair of 2-3 W/L records. No Pirates game has tallied 7+ runs since 5/1.

Hendricks was terrific in his last outing, and Cubs’ bats have been alive and kicking against southpaws like Anderson. Sportsbooks are offering Chicago at (+130) on the Run Line, as close to a coin-flip outcome as you’ll see at that price. But don’t forget Hendricks is a game removed from humiliation against Atlanta. If the Pirates’ streak of low-side O/U outcomes is bound to end with a bang, Sunday’s ballgame might provide the scenario.

Pick: Chicago (-1.5) and/or Over

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia is causing all kinds of problems for the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park, an indicator that the Braves’ current (+108) moneyline for Sunday Night Baseball could be about to shrink considerably. Betting on MLB clubs to ward-off rallying rivals in series closers at home is a time-honored trope, and Atlanta’s got momentum after a great comeback and 8-7 extra-innings win on Saturday. As always, though, the “system” pick must be vetted in case conditions don’t really apply or for the potential of an anomaly on the scoreboard.

Both teams were living large and confident coming into the series – that’s a positive for the defending-home-pride angle. Atlanta has been scoring a lot of runs at home, but depended on pitching and defense to help earn 3 straight Ws over the Washington Nationals and remain in touch with the division leaders. Philadelphia’s 12-2 opening win was a shock in a series expected to be as hotly contested as Friday’s nail-biter. But it could be the “anomaly” in the mix.

Visiting starter Aaron Nola can keep Atlanta’s bats quiet, while Huascar Ynoa of the Braves should shut down a Philly lineup that’s lagged in OBP when traveling. To prefer a pick on an opening (8) run O/U total is not to disregard the psychology of the Phils’ success, because both lineups will play desperate defense looking for an edge, and the teams’ bullpens are healthier than most, poised to help both managers wiggle out of jams in a slow-burn SNB duel.

Pick: Under

5/8/21

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

It’s hard to imagine hype playing a huge role in MLB odds until June or July. After all, pundits don’t expect dominant clubs and players to emerge until summer in a typical season. But the buzz around Joe Musgrove persists despite the San Diego hurler’s 2-3 record, and it’s causing San Francisco’s (+1.5) Run Line to grow closer to 1-to-1 odds than the Pads’ ML on Saturday.

With a marquee pitching match-up of Kevin Gausman taking on Musgrove, the ballgame’s O/U total is steady at a low (7) runs. Yet for some reason, almost every sportsbook’s numbers are giving the Padres a 30-40% chance to blow out Gigantes, with betting handles increasing on San Diego’s side even as San Francisco held the upper hand in a tight Friday contest.

San Diego is a phantom favorite. Wind blowing to the outfield will benefit the club that makes contact more often and puts more runners on 1st base, and the Giants have paradoxically had far better plate discipline at home than away. Musgrove has already been dinged-around once by the Giants.

Pick: Giants (+125) or (+1.5) (-150)

Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros

Have the Houston Astros finally shaken-off an April swoon? Houston was headed for an early pole position in the American League when the ‘Stros were swept by visiting Detroit, among the worst teams in Major League Baseball. But the club has recently beaten Tampa Bay in a series, and whipped Toronto 10-4 on Friday behind 3 hits from Alex Bregman, casting the hosts as a thin favorite for a Saturday evening ballgame with a falling (8.5) O/U total.

Should the words “Steven Matz” and “Under (8.5)” ever cling in conjunction? No offense to Toronto’s probable starter, but he’s given up 11 earned runs in less than 9 innings in 2 starts against smaller bats than Houston’s. What’s worse, opposing hurler Cristian Javier is off to a nuclear-hot start in 2021, though the unbeaten Javier did show some cracks in his last appearance.

Line-movement shows a plurality of handicappers concerned with Saturday’s run total, which is understandable, since each team’s pitching stable is riddled with injuries and the O/U outcome could hinge on Javier’s stamina. But with a potential pitching mismatch and the Blue Jays cooling off while the Astros heat up, are totals-bettors missing the forest for the trees? Houston’s (-140) moneyline odds are about where payoff on (-0.5) ATS should be.

Pick: Astros and/or Over

5/7/21

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers

Don’t look now, but the Texas Rangers have been playing decent baseball since getting swept by the Chicago White Sox in April. Texas has gone 6-2 in a pair of arduous 4-game series and can hope to get above the .500 mark during a series with the visiting Seattle Mariners. Friday night’s opener is handicapped with identical (-110) Las Vegas odds on both clubs.

Chris Flexen’s disappointing start against the L.A. Angels could be the chief reason Seattle isn’t favored. Flexen whiffed 0 batters in 4 innings and gave up 3 runs, not a splendid outing en route to facing a Texas Rangers team hungry to put real distance between the Lone Stars and last place. You don’t need to pronounce the name of opposing starter Mike Foltynewicz so long as you know how to pronounce “adequate.”

Seattle has bested Texas in recent meetings, but the correlation of right vs left handed starting hurlers with Texas’ wins and losses is illusory, and Foltynewicz could actually out-last Flexen on the mound on Friday. MLB underdogs and cellar-dwellers tend to lose all the time but just get hot every so often. There’s only 1 club on a hot streak coming into the series in question.

Pick: Rangers

Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals

It’s reasonable to think Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals will have an off day sooner than later, the 5-0 hurler being fortunate enough to have his team score double-digits in multiple Ws so far this season. But the Redbirds’ (-1.5) Run Line is priced too ordinarily (-108) to avoid taking the percentage pick on Friday evening, considering the Colorado Rockies’ overall problems and St. Louis’ rise to 1st place in the NL Central. Rox starter Austin Gomber has been putrid, while the Cardinals’ offense actually looks pretty good and adequately powerful for a change. STL has been worlds better ATS in 2021.

Pick: Cardinals Run Line 

5/6/21

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

Looking at the betting trends for Washington vs Atlanta on Thursday evening, it’s as if the Atlanta Braves had lost the opening 2 ballgames of a 3-game series, not the Nationals. It also wouldn’t be surprising if the more famous of 2 starting pitchers appeared for the visitors. Neither is the case as the Braves (-119) crush the Nats in drawn moneyline action that’s influenced Washington’s (+1.5) Run Line into the 1-to-1.5 range.

Jon Lester’s $5,000,000 contract the Nationals is not without its share of detractors, considering the 37 year-old’s decay as a Chicago Cubs workhorse prior to the pandemic. But a pair of Braves covers ATS has helped make bettors confident that Drew Smyly will be adequate to lead an Atlanta sweep. WagerBop isn’t so sure, considering that Washington will play hard to avoid an embarrassing sweep-against at home, while Lester’s last outing against Miami showcased the effictive style of an old pro who doesn’t mind adapting his tactics.

The best way for a creaking hurler to stay in Major League Baseball is to become Dennis Eckersley and make batters swat softballs for frames at a time. Just because Lester isn’t in vintage form doesn’t mean a newly-cautious player can’t out-pitch Smyly, who’s been beyond dreadful in 3 starts.

Picks: Nationals Run Line and Over (9)

Tampa Bay Rays at L.A. Angels

There is no such national TV brand as “Thursday Night Baseball,” and if there were such an animal, praise Jove it wouldn’t end up a blunder-bowl like the NFL’s weekday games often devolve into. But the L.A. Angels and Tampa Bay Rays are starting so late that the ballgame could stretch into Friday’s wee hours. Barring extra innings in Miami, the contest will be stand-alone.

Moneylines are drawn tight as the Angels vs Rays O/U total falls to (8) runs, following an initial suggestion of (8.5) out of Sin City. That’s a strange turn considering that the Halos are getting healthier and that the Rays have been averaging about 6 runs per-game in recent outings with L.A. Fans are tired of watching their high-side bets lose as late-spring hardball turns cautious.

You’d think nobody stopped to look at the pitching. Visiting starter Collin McHugh is a wild card whose stamina isn’t adequate to overcome Tampa Bay’s excoriated bullpen even if he does have a good game. Angel starter Andrew Heaney was destroyed by the Seattle Mariners’ lineup on 4/30. Only 4 of the clubs’ last 12 ballgames have tallied less than 9 total runs.

Pick: Over 

5/5/21

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox

Wednesday night’s best MLB betting opportunity comes at Fenway Park, where the Boston Red Sox defeated the Detroit Tigers 11-7 in a 3-game series opener on Tuesday. Detroit looked like a Cinderella ballclub after a series sweep of the Astros in April, but the Tigers have been a sad sack since then, winning just 2 out of 16 games. Still, the Red Sox are a fat (+110) on Wednesday’s (-1.5) Run Line.

To be sure, there are reasons to doubt the gambling value of a Boston team that’s flatlined as a short-odds favorite, dealing with inconsistency on home turf and failing to drive-in runners. Wednesday starter Martin Perez has dropped 2 decisions without a victory in 2021.

Yet the Tigers are as close to a genuine patsy as anyone in a contrived pro league full of competitive parity. Detroit is a few more shut-out losses from a runs-per-game average that would make Patrick Roy proud as a goals-against average. The chill at Fenway will help Boston punish Detroit starter Casey Mize more than it will help the Tigers solve Perez, and the Red Sox have been whipping the visitors in far more than the current series-meeting. Detroit hasn’t been losing many of its ballgames by a single run and is 8-17 against Run Lines since the Houston miracle.

Pick: Red Sox (-1.5) 

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies

It’s not often you see a ballclub with the superior W/L record and an outstanding hurler taking the mound with near-1-to-1 moneyline odds to win, but that’s the scenario in Philadelphia on Wednesday evening, where the Phillies are only a (+117) underdog despite facing Freddy Peralta in the 3rd of 4 ballgames at Citizens Bank Park.

Philly has won the opening 2 games by 1-run scores to climb to the .500 mark. Brad Miller is a hero after hitting a 3-run shot on Tuesday, but the broader narrative includes a potential Milwaukee slump following a hot start. The Brew Crew recently lost a series to Miami and blew a chance to sweep the L.A. Dodgers before dropping 2 more ballgames against the NL East.

If the Brewers are beginning to swoon, other factors outweigh any consideration of the Phillies as an underdog bet. Starting P Chase Anderson is off to a rough start, and the Brewers have outplayed the Phils in recent meetings. Milwaukee is still 9-4 on the road in ’21.

Pick: Brewers 

5/4/21

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

There are 2 ballgames on Tuesday’s mid-evening slate with rapidly changing odds and a gold-rush to bet on the favorite. Chicago’s White Sox are a popular, thin favorite over the Cincinnati Reds. Atlanta’s moneyline is also at (-135) and shrinking payoff if the Braves defeat the host Nationals in a series-opening ballgame. While neither favored club’s odds to win is the highest % pick, the latter contest’s betting action points the way to a fade-the-public angle on a different market. Atlanta’s perceived pitching advantage is probably a mirage, since as good as expected starter Huascar Ynoa might have been against the Chicago Cubs, he’s been just as bad as that earlier in spring.

Joe Ross of Washington showed comparable stamina and superior form in his last outing on 4/24. The O/U total has shifted up to (9) runs as high-rollers get excited about each team’s bats, but that’s the fatal angle of all. Atlanta’s scoring less than 4 runs per game on the road and Washington’s lineup has been even worse at Nationals Park.

Pick: Under

New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals

School children from St. Louis are still taught reading, writing, arithmetic, and that the New York Mets are pond scum. Rivalry vinegar aside, Sin City pundits expect algae to rise to the top (see what we did there?) when the Metropolitans face the Redbirds in the 2nd of 4 ballgames at Busch Stadium on Tuesday.

The STL-NY series opened with a strange game in which bullpens far outshone starting pitchers. “Under” bets lost quickly as bats combined for 11 runs in 3 innings, but that was it for the scoring as New York lost a frustrating outcome 6-5. Pete Alonzo whacked 3 hits without an RBI, epitomizing the wasted effort over 6 closing frames. A probable start from Jacob deGrom against host hurler Johan Oviedo has helped the Mets to a (-190) Tuesday moneyline and a high-risk Run Line.

Oviedo probably won’t have the superior night, but speculators are too quick to overlook NY’s poor batting stats while disregarding the other offense thanks to the Cardinals’ small-ball reputation. St. Louis has owned recent series with the New York Mets and has the stronger W/L mark. The threat of cold showers and a fly-ball slowing crosswind are elements of pure chance, making the Cards’ (+1.5) feel like “teaser” points for an unpredictable game with only a (6.5) run total.

Pick: Cardinals Run Line 

5/3/21

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies

Monday night’s series opener in Denver is an example of a scenario not seen often in Major League Baseball this season – a definite underdog that turns into a definite favorite. The Colorado Rockies opened as a (+115) moneyline wager, only to wind up at an eye-rubbing (-115) odds to beat the visiting San Francisco Giants. It’s not just the Gigantes’ immense list of injuries driving bets. Colorado has been outscoring teams at Coors Field. Rox batters are swinging for contact at all costs, using the advantage of mile high air earlier in the season that opponents are able to adjust. Colorado is 10-18 overall while San Francisco is 17-11. For Monday, however, gamblers are factoring that both SPs have had episodes. That’s true enough, except San Fran starter Aaron Sanchez has simply been more efficient than a 1-2 German Marquez has been for the hosts. That’s not a great reason to pick Over(10) runs because the Giants are an O-killer. San Francisco is the lean at fortuitous odds, and a 5-innings bet would take the bullpen’s injury bug mostly out of the equation.

Pick: Giants (5 Innings)

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners

WagerBop’s soft spot for low-key American League ballgames led to a line-forecast and a provisional pick for Mariners-Orioles late on Monday night. However, waiting patiently (all night and AM, in fact) for odds to arrive and settle has been to no avail! Please check back and join us for a special evening-hour pick on a weekday nightcap by 6 PM EST. Update: Oddsmakers finally crawled to the finish line with a (+125) opening moneyline on Baltimore, the handicap focused on a pitching duo that took extra time to suss out, host hurler Justin Dunn vs visiting Jorge Lopez. Lopez has been more serviceable than his poor ERA shows, but he’ll be throwing on only a few days’ rest. Gamblers are siding with Baltimore based on the O-Birds’ excellent road record and the fact that Dunn hasn’t done so much as to tower over Lopez in superiority. However, an O/U (8.5) line provides the better bet, since there are more well-argued reasons for why Dunn won’t last 6 innings than reasons why Lopez could have a miracle outing.

Pick: Over 

5/2/21

Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics

Baltimore is making hay while the sun shines in NorCal, defeating the Oakland Athletes twice to threaten a rare underdog visitors’ sweep on Sunday afternoon. Oakland is the (-180) ML favorite based in-part on the popular MLB betting system in which speculators wager on a home team to stave-off embarrassment rather than capitulate and lose to a visiting sweep.

There seem to be solid reasons to bet Baltimore’s (+1.5) Run Line, starting with the O-Birds having won 3 games in a row and 5 out of 7. Oakland could avoid getting swept without winning the ballgame by 2+ runs, in fact, the A’s might be more likely to play small-ball in late innings to squeeze out a 1-run win and avoid disaster.

However, the match-up on the mound amounts to efficiency vs liability. Host hurler Sean Manaea has gotten better each time out this spring, while Baltimore’s expected SP Bruce Zimmerman has regressed from start to start. The Orioles aren’t getting on base enough in early innings to negate a marked disadvantage over the first 5-6 frames on Sunday.

Pick: Athletics Run Line (-1.5)

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

Sin City’s run total for a Sunday Night Baseball date between the visiting New York Mets and host Philadelphia Phillies opened at O/U(8), seemingly an optimistic number given that each club is struggling to score. Bryce Harper is banged up, 2 of the Phils’ last 3 wins were by a 2-1 final, and the Mets have crossed home plate a grand total of 2 times in 3 ballgames. Those factors are tempered by a pitching card that looks shaky on both sides. Zach Eflin hasn’t hit his stride for Philadelphia and David Peterson of New York took part in the 12-run ChiSox-over-Mets demolition on 4/21.

When angles cancel out, look to history, and occasionally the weather in Philadelphia. Batting orders may indeed come alive against less-scary pitching, but they’ll need help the way things have been going, and a 15 MPH wind blowing toward center field should be a boon. Philadelphia looks like the team with an actual chance to score 6-7 runs in the game, but consider that the New York offense has had success against this opponent in recent battles.

Pick: Over

5/1/21

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

Saturday afternoon’s ballgame at Target Field is a “target” for deceptive statistics, and no, we’re not talking about Kansas City’s W/L record compared to the Minnesota Twins’ disappointing April mark. An O/U total of (8) on the Twins and slight-underdog Royals 2nd of 4 ballgames on Saturday ticked up to (8.5) on Friday evening, thanks in-part to the clubs’ early success from the plate in Friday’s series opener.

Season stats show a pair of healthy offenses, but fans of each team know better than that. Starting P Matt Shoemaker’s bad start compared to visiting hurler Danny Duffy’s fine April is the only thing keeping Minnesota from solid favorite’s odds as MLB gamblers expect reversion to begin rearing its ugly head on the Royals.

There’s no trend that says big, strong lineups are apt to knock upstart teams back to Earth if they’re not on solid footing themselves. Duffy is indeed capable of striking-out the Minnesota Twins, who have had a couple of spurts of good batting in midst of a frigid April. But look at Kansas City’s recent scores, and W/L record aside, there’s no reason to assume KC can beat up on Shoemaker or a healthy Twins bullpen.

Pick: Under 

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

If you’re going to handicap an MLB contest prior to the previous ballgame of the series being completed, it’s best to choose a scenario such as Saturday’s game between Arizona and visiting Colorado. Saturday isn’t the series closer, and the Diamondbacks already won a tight ballgame on Friday, setting the stage for a scientific rather than an emotional outing at Chase Field. Arizona’s popular ML belies a stubborn Run Line payoff of (+115) as pundits ponder the Rockies’ chances.

The opponents are comparable. Colorado is batting surprisingly OK for a 9-16 club, and while the Rox aren’t walking nearly enough, you can’t always slam Colorado for bad plate discipline because swatting the ball in-play isn’t an unwise tactic at Coors Field. Arizona’s live lumber has fans annoyed that the D-Backs aren’t slithering above .500.

But there’s no comparison of current form from Saturday’s starting hurlers. Arizona’s Zac Gallen recently stoned the Atlanta Braves for 7 innings following a weird outing vs Cincinnati. Austin Gomber of Colorado was a goner just 5 outs into a blow-out loss after getting pulverized by the Giants – the Giants! – batting lineup on April 26th.

Pick: Diamondbacks (-1.5) 

4/30/21

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

It’s a tale of 2 wagers involving New York baseball clubs on Friday, with the sexier bet of the pair also the less valuable. The Yankees are solid Run Line favorites to blow away the visiting Detroit Tigers, and a start from Garrit Cole is supposed to tame Detroit’s bats while a 20 MPH wind helps the Bronx Bombers bomb away. But the Yanks’ early-season struggles could resurface against the fine-fielding Tigers, and low O/U totals (7.5) don’t mix well with (-1.5) point spreads. Meanwhile, the Mets are the “sober” bet to beat the Phillies at about (-140) odds. Expected host-starter Chase Anderson is off to a miserable start, and the Metropolitans will benefit from “weighted bats” after taking on titan after titan in rough series.

Pick: Mets

L.A. Angels at Seattle Mariners

There appear to be tempting reasons for betting the high-side of a Mariners vs Angels total (8) that’s sitting at standard (-110) payoff odds for the ballclubs’ series opener on Friday night. The breeze will be blowing toward center field, each team is averaging 4+ runs per game, and the rivalry has produced high scores for a while.

Is it wise to ignore trends as they’re forming, though, while paying attention once the numbers have congealed further? Friday night’s starting hurlers Chris Flexen and Andrew Heaney have shown the ability to last beyond a standard 5-6 innings in 2021, a crucial component to quality 9-inning defense in a spring riddled with bullpen injuries. But unlike the case with many lineups around Major League Baseball, a plurality of injuries for Seattle and L.A. are not in the relief pitching stables but elsewhere.

Flexen began 2021 poorly and then started flexin’ with improved starts worthy of trending-up status. Heaney was outstanding against the Mariners late in 2020. With each club struggling to generate runs at the moment, it’s only worthwhile to bet the low side of the run total before any more head room is lost.

Pick: Under 

4/29/21

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

The NHL’s 2021 alignment has kept skaters (mostly) safe in “COVID bubbles,” but Major League Baseball knows that craftsmen traveling across time zones is part of the romance of sports, allowing series like Milwaukee vs L.A, to take place. Saturday’s cool opener in Wisconsin is expected to feature cool bats.

The Bums are cast as a (-152) favorite behind Trevor Bauer, and the presence of Freddy Peralta of the Brew Crew has the O/U total locked at (7.5) with a (+100) payoff on winning O(7.5) wagers. Many handicappers will view the latter as a suckers’ line. But are there trends pointing to a high-side outcome? Sure, the Dodgers keep landing on “under” on the road, but they’re winning for over-bets night after night as of late. None of either team’s last 3 ballgames have gone under 7.5 total runs, and for L.A. you’ve got to go back to 4/23 to find a game that did. Both bullpens are wounded. The roof could keep players and fans dry if expected showers arrive, but it can’t keep the air from holding the baseball aloft.

PIck: Over (+100)

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers

Not to keep throwing MLB “Over” picks at you, ‘Boppers, but a line of (8.5) total runs for Texas vs Boston on Thursday evening seems too good to pass up.

The prevailing handicap is that Texas will use a pitching advantage gained by starting Kyle Gibson on the mound against Martin Perez to make hay and potentially take a lead on the BoSox, only for a superior Boston batting order to bring the visitors back in the end. Maybe the Red Sox cover the Run Line in that scenario, and maybe they don’t, but (8.5) is a pretty small number to reflect all that likely business. Perez is potentially a weak link in the guests’ rotation and his lineup knows it needs runs early to gain the hurler a cushion.

Pick: Over 

4/28/21

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox

Maybe folks can’t get used to gambling on the ChiSox as they would another MLB contender. Chicago’s season is going well enough that the White Sox were able to defeat Cleveland in a 1-off before sweeping the Texas Rangers over the weekend, but Tuesday’s 5-2 loss in the series opener with visiting Detroit has the White Sox Run Line odds stuck in neutral gear at (-110) for Wednesday’s folllow-up ballgame. Surely a Yankees or Astros team that stood at 12-10 would get more of a nod from Sin City, considering that Detroit’s game has totally fallen apart following some hopeful spark in April. Detroit is coming off an opposing sweep from the Kansas City Royals, and already pulled off its 2-to-1 upset of the new series yesterday.

Pick: White Sox (-1.5) 

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

San Francisco’s bats are beginning to come alive following a strange hot streak in which the club relied almost entirely on pitching and defense to work through tense innings and improve Gigantes’ W/L mark. Yet plenty of gamblers are ready to wager on Colorado’s (-170) underdog Run Line for Wednesday night considering that the Rockies snapped back from a 12-0 drubbing to even the series 1-1 on Tuesday. San Francisco money line speculators would point out that Alex Wood is expected to outpitch German Marquez of the visiting Rox.

Look again at the lines, and a better “percentage” pick emerges immediately. Over/Under (7) is a wildly low number for ballclubs who’ve produced 24 runs in 18 innings already, and Wood hasn’t fared extremely well against Colorado in years past. San Francisco’s trend of “Under” outcomes has vanished, and the Rockies are trending-over. Last but not least, near-20 MPH wind is expected to blow straight at the center field wall, more than negating the heavy ocean air.

Pick: Over 

4/27/21

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians

One of the problems pro handicappers have is an obsession with “the number,” a belief that finding the right line is more important than predictions, intuition, or reducing juice. Preoccupation with numbers can lead to the flaw of looking at teams as stat sheets on a ledger, without regard for the fact that 162 ballgames’ worth of “leveled-out” statistics are the product of many emotional twists and turns. Such a scenario could be occurring in Cleveland, where the odds on Tuesday’s game with the visiting Minnesota Twins are drawn tight despite what appears to be serious advantages for a side.

Probable hurler Kenta Maeda of the Twins is having a troubled start to match his own ballclub’s awful April, while opposing Aaron Civale of the Indians has been efficient in a 3-0 season so far. There appears to be some kind of irrational belief that the Minnesota Twins’ slump can end at any time, or at least a reliance on the visitors’ nice recent record against Cleveland. Those factors won’t matter so much if Maeda is banged around in a batter’s wind while Civale keeps shining.

Pick: Indians (+102) 

Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers

Gamblers appear to be too clever by-half in speculating on the Milwaukee vs Miami follow-up on Tuesday night. The ballgame’s Las Vegas total has settled low at (7.5) runs while the Marlins stand as an underdog despite whipping the Brew Crew 8-0 in the series opener. Lots of “system” handicaps would point to a Milwaukee rebound at home against an April “rabbit” that’s fading away soon, but the pitchers at hand aren’t overwhelming and the question is whether Miami’s bats can keep up with the expected breakout for the Brewers. By all accounts in the series so far, the Fish can.

Pick: Over 

4/26/21

L.A. Angels at Texas Rangers

At first it could be hard to fathom why the Los Angeles Angels’ (-1.5) Run Line is the less-popular of 2 opposing Major League Baseball bets for Monday night, with the Texas Rangers drawing action at (-120) despite a cellar W/L record. Few of the Lone Stars’ poor batting stats point to a reversion to quality offense in late May, in fact the Rangers are showing too many signs of being a club that might never figure things out from home plate with any consistency. Shohei Ohtani vs Jordan Lyles looks like a pitching mismatch in favor of the visiting team.

But the trends are all wrong for a confident pick on Halos-to-cover. Ohtani wasn’t fantastic in his last outing against Texas, and Lyles’ WHIP number was actually superior when the pair went head to head. Ohtani hasn’t showed stamina in a pair of starts, and the Rangers have been OK as a Run Line underdog. L.A. just snapped a losing streak and isn’t the cockiest ballclub at this juncture. Over (8.5) is a much higher-percentage pick for Tuesday’s opener at Globe Life Park, as the retractable roof will cancel a howling cross-wind and each bullpen could work overtime in the event Lyles is knocked-out while Ohtani gets tired.

Pick: Over 

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

Monday night’s Astros-Mariners opener comes with yet another tricky Run Line in a spring full of them. Each team’s handicap is a paradox. The Houston Astros (-1.5) (+111) ought not to be a happy team after falling to the L.A. Angels in a disappointing close outcome. But given the proud ballclub’s struggles in April, 3 wins out of 4 in any series is good news. The Seattle Mariners suffered a teeth-gnashing loss of their own in a closer with Boston, but are generating runs and winning games.

Look to the mound and another market emerges as promising. Not only are the aces resting for both clubs, there are extensive injury issues in each bullpen, while the batting lineups appear to be healthier overall for both sides. Last but not least, a solid, steady wind will be blowing directly at the center-right field stands on Monday evening. With an O/U total of just (9) runs even, gamblers can do a lot worse than trusting the high-side, given a pair of lineups which are psychologically well-positioned to have a nice night at the plate against ordinary pitching.

Pick: Over 

4/25/21

Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox

Saturday’s O/U outcome in the Marlins-Giants ballgame illustrates how MLB “under” bets can remain anxious until the final umpire’s signal. Among other “bad beat” motifs, there’s always the threat that 2 tied opponents will “FBS” it up and match each other score for score, adding total runs until midnight Sin City time, and/or a game-winning rally will spark “consolation” runs in retaliation. Retaliation rallies are especially a problem when taking the Run Line against a spirited underdog with confident bats in springtime.

‘Cappers are confident in Boston pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez against Nick Margevicius of the Mariners, and think that the Ms are in for M-barrassment in a Sunday series closer for which the Red Sox are a heavy favorite. But why isn’t the Run Line a more-popular bet on Boston’s side at 1-to-1 odds?

Because the wiser high-rollers know Seattle is playing big-league baseball. Seattle has covered (+1.5) twice in the series so far with a straight W on the ledger, and whipped the Astros and split with the Dodgers before that. Will the hosts probably rally for 5-7 runs and earn the series win? Sure, but the Mariners can keep up, at least for the time being.

Pick: Over (9)

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego’s solid road record and an electric start to a 4-game series with the host L.A. Dodgers has moneylines drawn tight prior to Sunday Night Baseball’s last April installment. Gamblers still trust Pads starter Joe Musgrove after the veteran hurled a no-hitter earlier in spring. eagerly grabbing a U(7.5) wager that’s juiced a little extra at major sportsbooks.

Not to say Musgrove’s aura is a product of hype, but it’s very early in ’21 to be allowing any single MLBer to affect betting lines so profoundly. Musgrove has allowed 3 runs in 11 innings while losing twice in his last 2 starts. Probable Dodger P Dustin May is a quizzical name for speculators, given that May was used and pulled as a surprise Halos-style “opener” despite not giving up an earned run in a playoff game with San Diego in 2020, a move that had baseball’s entire fan base trolling the Bums afterward.

May could (excuse the pun) use the incident for motivation, itching to close the book on a troubling outing. He’s got the talent to smoke the Pads, who aren’t batting all that great at just 12-10. The Dodgers are scoring more runs than the Padres and are leading the AL West for a reason, with or without Cody Bellinger. San Diego’s bullpen is a casualty ward.

Pick: Dodgers (-125)

4/25/21

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians

Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants

4/23/21

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

National League speculators are frozen as of Thursday night, waiting to see how the New York-at-Chicago series sweep bid pans out for the Cubs. Maybe a humiliation would rouse the Mets’ bats to life and help the club prevail in an important April home-stand. Plus-odds on O(7) is tempting but could change at any time, while we already know a lot about how the die is cast in Tampa, where another O/U line is buried at (7) and (-115) payoff odds on the high side.

The scenarios are similar. Tampa’s bats are a little more live, but New York is playing looser hardball (to a fault) and each team is a threat to score with unlikely rallies or give-up runs in unlucky ways. That’s not a wonderful sign for bets of U(7) at any price on an MLB game. Those hedging low are counting on probable starters Tyler Glasnow of the Rays and Steven Matz of the Blue Jays to keep hitters at bay all night, especially given Toronto’s flat offense.

But maximum pitch counts will be reached, and that will be that for both aces with at least 3-4 innings to play. The pair’s combined starts have led to more over-run total outcomes as the Blue Jays and Rays operate recovery-clinics in the bullpens. Managers know a complete game for a trusted starter is a Pyrrhic victory in ear;y 2021, dampening the chances of an all-night duel and a microscopic run tally in the series opener.

Pick: Over

Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies

A handful of extra gamblers are taking the Under (10.5) in Colorado tonight, hoping that the Rox’ dejected morale and an outfield-to-infield wind will produce a low run total. They should be looking at (-125) of the Rockies instead. Colorado has been decent on the home diamond in Union Station Square, and German Vasquez knows the key to preventing RBIs in wacky Denver air is to keep runners off-base with Ks. Philly has been bad on the road, and the Phillies’ problems should have led to a few more “dimes” floating in the juice on Friday night’s home team.

Pick: Rockies 

4/22/21

New York Mets at Chicago Cubs

You would do well to remember, Mr. Lucchesi, that these Cubs have very different ideas than the last ones. Chicago (+119) is in business at Wrigley Field, beating the New York Mets in 2 straight ballgames, scoring 16 runs on Wednesday night, and setting-up a potential series sweep that could raise the Cubbies out of the 2021 NL Central cellar before the caboose ever gets uncomfortable. So why Chicago standing at plus-odds on Thursday? Bookmakers don’t trust host-starter Trevor Williams to out-pitch Joey Lucchesi of the Mets despite a 2-1 mark in April, and are taking the Cubs’ new institutional focus into account. Superb pitching helped Chicago to the pennant but the stable hasn’t been replenished. The ’21 Cubs need rallies to win and haven’t been getting enough of them.

Reverse psychology is at work, as the media focuses on New York’s defensive issues and pretends as if Javier Báez didn’t define Wednesday’s game with a single blast, or that David Bote didn’t account for another 4 RBIs. Chicago’s lineup is swinging for the fence to get out of a hole, and New York’s “Vatican Henchman” has begun 2021 as shakily as he ended 2020. Sin City is treating the Cubs like fool’s gold…while the Metropolitans eagerly pack for home.

Pick: Cubs

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

Wowee, the L.A. Dodgers aren’t correlated with a (7.5) Vegas run total unless a true ace is on the mound, and it’s Walker Buehler pitching the opening ballgame of a series with the visiting San Diego Padres on Thursday night. He’s been a machine so far in 2021, lasting until the 7th innings of 3 consecutive, well, ace-like starts. Host batters are crushing the Pads on all sides of the stat sheet. Some linemakers have moved the total to (8) runs as speculators rush to take the high-side and count on big Bums bats against a wounded pitching stable. But the real steal on the betting board is L.A. with the juice anywhere under (-175), since visiting starter Ryan Weathers was cautiously pulled in the 4th inning of a San Diego-LA tilt on 4/16, once the Dodgers had already gotten a feel for the called-up youngster.

Pick: Dodgers ((-170) or (-1.5) (+115)) 

4/21/21

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

We whiffed on Milwaukee’s series opener with San Diego on Monday night, but that doesn’t mean Over (7) was the wrong recommendation. At some point in any MLB season, O/U outcomes will begin tipping to the low-side when efficient pitchers are on the mound and quality fielding teams are on the diamond, not when feast-or-famine hurlers are coming off 8 scoreless innings and poised for reversion. Wednesday’s series closer brings the same efficiency-vs-buzz angle into play, but on a Run Line as opposed to the run total.

Gamblers are leaning O(7.5) for Wednesday in America’s Finest City, understandable since the O/U opened at such a low number. But the line-movement doesn’t jive with a handicap of (-190) on the Padres’ moneyline, since host P Dinelson Lamet is an unknown quantity in 2021 and guest Adrian Houser has given up 5 runs in 3 starts. Houser is limited and methodical enough to give up 5 base hits when he ought to have allowed 3, causing the Brew Crew to lose a tight ballgame. It’s less likely that San Diego will win in a blow-out considering the match-up of quiet bats against a team averaging more runs-per-game than the Pads.

Pick: Brewers Run Line (-125)

New York Mets at Chicago Cubs

There’s a pitching mismatch brewing for the Cubs (not the Brewers) and visiting Mets at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, with struggling Zach Davies taking on New York starter David Peterson in the 2nd of a 3-game series. The Metropolitans’ (-135) moneyline is likely to shrink faster once more gamblers figure out the key angle. Yes, Peterson didn’t have an electric start to his season or a stellar spring-training appearance for that matter. But the 25-year old figured things out in his 2nd start against a Philly club that had punished Peterson earlier in April, a sign that the Mets’ up-and-comer could be on his way to another fine season after going a promising 6-2 in 2020. We’re not excited enough about the away team’s pitching to recommend anything but a high-side pick against a (7.5) O/U total however. Cold and potentially damp weather will slow down fastballs in a hitter’s park, negating the effect of slight wind-against and helping the whiff-tastic Cubs score at least a few runs on a Big Apple club with superior plate discipline and a better W/L record.

Picks: Mets and Over 

4/20/21

Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds

As a rule of thumb, rising Over/Under totals are easier lines on which to “fade the public” than dropping totals. Recreational gamblers like to pick the high-side at every opportunity, since cheering for runs, baskets, goals, or touchdowns is more fun than rooting for a pair of clubs to stymie their opponents. There are exceptions, though, such as when “hot” MLB hurlers impress speculators with outstanding performances and cause O/U lines to drop unnaturally. Arizona and host Cincinnati’s run total has fallen to (7.5) at Sin City sportsbooks prior to Tuesday’s ballgame, even though the Reds are scoring 6+ runs per contest and the D-Backs can’t blame problems at the plate for most of Arizona’s 10 losses. Furthermore, we’re not convinced either starting P is a threat to have a banner evening. Luis Castillo of the Reds has given up 12 runs in 3 starts, and visiting Zac Gallen’s form outshined his stamina in a no-decision appearance on 4/13.

Pick: Over 

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

There are lots of trendy low-side MLB run total picks going around, perhaps leading speculators to concentrate on lines that take the focus away from superior bets. Boston vs Toronto on Tuesday night presents a mirror image of that scenario, as gamblers try to guess who’s going to win the ballgame while passing up what’s potentially a much higher-percentage wager against the O/U (8.5).

Boston is the high-action moneyline for the series opener, having just crowned the talented Chicago White Sox 11-4 behind a big night from DH J.D. Martinez. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are sitting under .500 and couldn’t prevail in a 4-game series with the Kansas City Royals that ended with a 2-0 win for KC. That would seem to entrench Boston as a solid favorite on Tuesday. But we know that day-to-day fortunes remain volatile in hardball, especially in spring. Look to the mound instead, and you’ll find a pair of efficient hurlers who, unlike many of the MLB pitchers getting buzz in the press and play at sportsbooks, aren’t relying on dangerous pitches to get results. Eduardo Rodriguez and visiting Hyun-Jin Ryu have well-earned reputations and stamina to match, and neither man has allowed more than 3 runs in a 2021 start despite not lighting-up the stat sheet with Ks.

Pick: Under 

4/19/21

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies

Hey there, ‘boppers – we’re publishing a little early today so apologies to those still searching for a Sunday Night Baseball prediction. Just scroll down to find WagerBop’s pick on tonight’s Cubs vs Braves contest. Or, if you’re already prepping for Monday night’s MLB action, consider a small-unit bet on the Philadelphia Phillies to win at (-110).

The opening odds might have given Philly the nod in Monday’s series opener with the visiting San Francisco Giants, except that bookmakers had just watched the Phils pitching staff give up 9 runs and 11 hits to the St. Louis Cardinals, a team that has struggled out of the gate in 2021. Sunday’s 2-0 closing victory might make a few gamblers more optimistic about the host club, but the best reason to wager Philadelphia is that P Chase Anderson – who’s had a couple of decent, cautious outings vs the New York Mets – should be able to keep San Fran’s meager bats quiet for 5-6 innings. Gigantes starting hurler Kevin Gausman’s 3.20 ERA appears to be poised for a rise with a larger sample size.

Pick: Phillies

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

The Over/Under total for Monday night’s Padres-Brewers opener has dropped to a subterranean (7) runs, daring gamblers to predict an all-night pitcher’s duel between Joe Musgrove and Brandon Woodruff or wager the high side at odds of anywhere from (-110) to (-120). Both hurlers have certainly had exceptional starts in 2021, allowing less than 10 runs in their previous 5 combined starts. Musgrove pitched the first no-hitter in San Diego Padres history on April 9th. MIlwakuee’s offense belies the club’s 8-7 record with just over a .200 team batting average, and the Pads’ bats aren’t exactly legendary at this point. However, careful April management of pitching stables and a worm-burning O/U line doesn’t mix, and Philly is due for some reversion from the plate. Modern MLB clubs play a style of “advanced moneyball” that encourages hitters to swing for the outfield to prevent double plays and maximize at-bats with runners on base, meaning Musgrove and Woodruff’s confident K hunting will eventually lead to a few extra HRs and doubles. San Diego has been generating rallies throughout a 10-7 opening stretch and each team is scoring 4+ runs per contest.

Pick: Over 

4/18/21

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers

Despite similar team scoring stats, the Milwaukee Brewers have gotten an early leg up on the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Central. Milwaukee will trot out a nuclear-hot hurler in Sunday afternoon’s series closer after splitting 2 contests with the Buccos, starting Freddy Peralta against visiting Chad Kuhl. Apparently, the betting public sees Peralta’s start as a sure-thing advantage for the Brew Crew, but only to the extent that Milwaukee is poised for a close win. The hosts’ moneyline has shrunk to 1-to-2 payoff odds while the Run Line remains exactly 1-to-1 on the favorites.

Perhaps batting is the key angle behind a more-adventurous pick. Nearly 10 Milwaukee Brewers have dinged home runs despite a .201 team batting average that’s likely to start moving upward. Pittsburgh’s lineup hasn’t produced nearly as much power despite walking more often, a lifeline that will probably vanish against top-quality pitching.

Pick: Brewers Run Line (+100)

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs

Speculators waited a long time for sportsbooks to post odds for Sunday Night Baseball, only to find the most basic numbers that are possible in matching (-110) opening moneylines. Kyle Hendricks was always entrenched as the Chicago Cubs’ starter, but the Atlanta Braves took a while to select Bryce Wilson, a promising hurler making his 2021 debut. Cubs’ bats have been quiet to begin the campaign, notwithstanding a 13-run bonanza on Saturday in which 6 host homers and infielder Kris Bryant’s perfect day at the plate helped even the series at 1-1. Atlanta’s injuries in the pitching stable have led the Braves to their own weak start despite better scoring. But the Braves are missing only a single relief pitcher, while the Cubs’ bullpen is full of early-season wounds and COVID-setbacks. That’s an important angle for a contest in which neither starter is likely to see the 7th inning. Hendricks has been ill and was scratched from his last start, while Atlanta’s plan for Wilson is so long-term that coaches are counting his throws to 1st base. Look for the Braves’ stable to close-out a tight ballgame successfully.

Pick: Braves

4/17/21

St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies

At a glance, the St. Louis Cardinals appear to be the most hapless baseball club ever to hold a .500 record in mid-April. St. Louis has lost series to the Reds, Brewers, and Nationals, and has been out-scored 15-2 in its last pair of ballgames. Philadelphia has a (-105) line to win the 2nd of 3 against the visiting Cardinals on Saturday, payoff odds that are shrinking with early action. Philly has been almost as flaky in the early-going however. The Phils were recently swept by the New York Mets in a trio of contests and barely avoided a series sweep from Atlanta before that. The club is suffering from lax plate discipline and averaging well under 4 runs per game. STL is scoring runs in bunches or not at all, which calls an (8.5) O/U line into question. Probable guest pitcher Kwang Hyun Kim was all style and little substance late in 2020, and opposing Matt Moore’s skills have begun to erode since he last faced the Redbirds in 2017. The Cardinals may be poised to knock Moore out of the box or look like trash and lose another blow-out, either case leading to a likely totals-win on the high side.

Pick: Over

Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels

Most pundits agree the Minnesota Twins are talented at the plate and have at least a competitive pitching staff. Is the Twins’ mediocre early record a hint of trouble, or simply a strong club gearing up to take over in June? We’ll potentially know more after the AL Central team’s current 6-game road trip.

Gamblers seem to like Minnesota’s (-110) odds to win the 2nd of 3 games in Los Angeles on Saturday, but bookmakers are clearly shy of probable Twins P Matt Shoemaker, who’s begun 2021 like a golfer who swings well but can’t score under par. Shoemaker fanned 7 visiting Seattle batters on 4/11 but gave up 4 runs in 5 frames as the Mariners won in an upset. But there is no such ambiguity about Jose Quintana’s dreadful start for the Los Angeles Angels. Quintana was punished by Houston and blown off the mound by Toronto 5 days later. Minnesota has the firepower to keep up in a high-scoring game, but if the Angels are losing 5-1 and the Twins can work around Mike Trout and other opposing bats, the visitors’ live odds could shrink 3-fold by the 4th inning.

Pick: Twins

4/16/21

San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins

Every sport has a “loophole” by which an Under outcome can turn into an Over result. In football and basketball it’s overtime, in hockey it’s the empty-net goal. MLB games will always go “Over” if tied at 1/2 of a run below the O/U total, since somebody has to score to finish the ballgame. Baseball’s version of the Over/Under loophole comes into play when handicapping San Francisco’s visit to Miami on Friday evening.

Gigantes are winning while not batting-in more than a few runs per game, thanks to an exceptional pitching staff and fielding form well above the quality expected from clubs in April. Miami is also playing well enough to have won a 4-game series with the Atlanta Braves. Is it time to predict a more exciting ballgame between a pair of hot teams? Maybe sometime soon, but consider that while visiting starter Anthony DeSclafani could be a budding superstar, Marlins probable P Daniel Castano is a wild card headed into Friday. Pitcher’s duels obviously work for U(8.5), but if Castano departs halfway through with the Giants up 4-1, at least a bad beat is less likely.

Pick: Under 

Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics

Over (8.5) is already a popular pick for Friday night’s 2nd of 4 games between the Oakland A’s and visiting Detroit Tigers. As house percentages shrink on the low side and get stiffer for bets on 9+ total runs, is it time to bet with or against the public?

It’s hard to overlook the success Detroit has had on its current road trip, whipping the powerful Houston Astros and threatening to make noise in the AL Central. Despite any perceived disparity in talent, Oakland is in almost the same position, gobbling up wins to compensate for a bad start. But as usual, the pitching mound is a key angle.

Probable starter Jose Urena is off to a miserable start for Motor City, and opposing hurler Frankie Montas isn’t having a shiny spring either. It’s true that large sample sizes are crucial in handicapping MLB performances over the long haul, but don’t confuse the inevitable ebbs and flows with a need to disregard the obvious. It would be hard enough for Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan to tame 18 live bats, let alone a couple of guys who’re giving up RBIs to far-less confident lineups.

Pick: Over 

4/15/21

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays

Making 300+ picks in a season involves a lot of different MLB betting markets. But we hope that Daily Double doesn’t come across like the kid from Summer School who keeps marking “C” on every multiple-choice question. We’re making another “Over” pick – the blog’s third in a row.

Speculators are betting Tampa Bay on a (-175) moneyline for Thursday, hoping that probable Rays pitcher Rich Hill will outplay Jordan Lyles of the Rangers, and allow Tampa Bay to even the 4-game series at 2-2. But it’s unreasonable to expect either man to pitch an exceptional game given that the starting Ps’ runs allowed have belied promising WHIP numbers in early starts. The Rays may prove to be a superior club despite matching 5-7 records after a dozen ballgames, but Hill’s last start resulted in a 10-5 loss and another 15-run contest isn’t out of the question in a closer handicapped at O/U (8.5).

Pick: Over (+100) 

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers

Can MLB gamblers trust the L.A. Dodgers after seeing what happened to the Houston Astros against Detroit? Houston appeared to be keeping pace with the best clubs in both leagues after starting the season with 6 wins in a week’s time. Next thing we knew, the ‘Stros were getting swept by the Tigers in 3 straight games to fall back to .500. Not only is the betting public somewhat shy of L.A.’s (-140) Run Line against Colorado on Thursday night, the ballgame’s Las Vegas total is sitting at a modest (8) runs thanks to the Rockies getting shut-out in the series opener, followed by a slow trickle of small-ball scoring in Wednesday night’s follow-up contest. Colorado might make a fine underdog pick, except probable P Austin Gomber’s sub-3.00 ERA is a mirage after 2 games, since his 2nd start was against a San Francisco team that’s relying on its pitching staff to overcome quiet bats. Gomber only lasted 3 innings in a previous start vs L.A., while opposing starter Julio Urias is coming off 2 Ws by comfortable margins and owned the Rox in the aforementioned ballgame on 4/4.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line 

4/14/21

San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates

“Hey Fowler, don’t you know I hate losin’ to the PIRATES!?” Pop Fischer probably wouldn’t mind managing the New York Knights against the Pittsburgh Pirates this spring, since the Buccos appear no threat to win any series unless the Chicago Cubs are in town. Another opening loss – this time to the San Diego Padres – has San Diego’s ML as thin as (-230) for Wednesday’s ballgame at PNC Park. To be sure, there’s reason to believe another easy win could be in store for a Pittsburgh opponent. The hosts will trot out Tyler Anderson, a hurler who’s off to a dreadful start in 2021, against Joe Musgrove, a veteran righty who’s already got a no-hitter and a separate shut-out win to his credit this season. But the Pirates are hurting more on the mound than at the plate, and Musgrove’s too precious of a commodity as a potential late-blooming ace for the Pads to wear him out. The clubs exploded for 10 runs early in Tuesday’s game and have collectively played in 1 pitcher’s duel in the last 8 contests, calling an (8) run O/U line into doubt.

Pick: Over 

Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox

There are certain MLB ballgames that Las Vegas just doesn’t seem to want to croak out a betting line on, and Chicago vs Cleveland on Wednesday is a prime example. Even though neither team is fiddling with its pitching order, and even though April is not a time when a given outcome necessarily has a huge impact on the game to follow, sportsbooks took until late on Tuesday night to post a (-128) moneyline on the host White Sox for a contest with a low-ball (7.5) O/U run total. Expected starters Carlos Rodon and Zach Plesac have been impressive so far, fanning a combined 15 batters in their previous starts. The fact that 9 total runs have been scored in the maiden half of a 4-game series isn’t helping the Over draw bets. And yet just as in the Wednesday ballgame previewed above, a cold shower might be needed for anyone who thinks a low-scoring outcome is a sure thing based on flaky early-spring scores. There’s usually at least 1 display of fireworks in a 4-game stint. Chicago is averaging nearly 6 runs per game and Cleveland is averaging nearly 5, making (7.5) kind of like a (121.5) O/U line on a pair of basketball teams averaging 70 points per game. At some point, hurlers pitching aggressively for strikeouts are going to make mistakes that result with the ball in the center field stands.

Pick: Over 

4/13/21

Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles

The Daily Double turned into the “Daily Single” despite our best efforts on Monday, as Baltimore’s ballgame against the visiting Seattle Mariners was rained out. As is ideal in such circumstances, the game was rescheduled as part of a doubleheader on Tuesday.

However, plans for starting pitchers have changed, and so have the odds. The O-Birds are now about a (-140) moneyline favorite with John Means on the mound taking on Nick Margevicius of the Mariners. Though Baltimore’s line to win is the trendy pick due to an apparent pitching mismatch, it’s of note that Margevicious’ stats in his brief duty so far this season are pretty damn good apart from a couple of allowed home runs. The Baltimore Orioles are now in the unfamiliar position of getting “juiced” in Las Vegas despite carrying a losing record, and without a lineup of sluggers to take advantage of the odd Margevicious mistake, we’re liking a sober pick on the Under (9) that bookmakers expect to win but can’t juice quite as much.

Pick: Under (-120) 

Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros

It’s common for high-rollers to disregard hot streaks from low-budget clubs in April. But it’s less frequent that a powerful team like the Houston Astros is shunned by gamblers because of a few unlucky losses in the early-going. MLB speculators are shy of Houston’s relatively rare (-180) line to beat the less-talented Detroit Tigers at home on Tuesday night thanks to 3 Astros losses in a row, including Detroit’s 6-2 victory on Monday in the series opener.

Look deeper, though, and the Astros’ bats are not quiet. The club is simply stranding its runners on base. Houston hasn’t posted less than 7 hits in a ballgame since the losing streak began, and even out-hit the Oakland A’s in 1 of the recent losses. Underdog bettors are excited about probable Detroit starter Matthew Boyd, but he’s been clobbered by the Astros in the past and makes $500,000 a year as a 30-year-old hurler for a reason. By contrast, Houston starter Jake Odorizzi has owned the Tigers and wants badly to win his maiden start for the ‘Stros.

Pick: Astros Run Line (+100) 

4/12/21

Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants

WagerBop has discovered the late Monday night line-movement we were looking for, not just on 1 ballgame but on 2. However, only a single pick against-the-public appears to be worth a recommendation in the final analysis. Sharks are convinced that Brady Singer of the Kansas City Royals will out-pitch Alex Cobb of the L.A. Angels, so much so that the Royals have gone from an underdog to about a 1-to-1 wager. Your blogger disagrees, but KC is notorious for having “mirage” success in the early season, making the Halos an iffy pick in any case. Meanwhile, however, the optimism around Cincinnati’s chances in San Francisco is probably misplaced, and we’ll take the reduced juice on Gigantes at (-113).

Pick: Giants 

4/11/21

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis has begun 2021 doing what the Redbirds need to do to keep pace in the NL Central, posting a series-sweep of Miami and splitting 2 ballgames against the visiting Milwaukee Brewers, setting up a rubber match with the Brew Crew on Sunday. Betting lines are stable despite a potential pitching advantage for the hosts, calling the oft-criticized Cardinal offense into question again.

It wasn’t the batting lineup that let St. Louis down in Saturday’s 9-5 Brewers win. Yadier Molina had a huge day at the plate, but relief hurler Tyler Webb was walloped as Milwaukee scored 5 decisive runs in the 7th inning. Milwaukee’s bats have been quiet to begin the campaign, and it’s notable that Sunday’s guest starter Brett Anderson has fared poorly against a host of Cardinal batters (sans Molina) and began the season with a division loss, while St. Louis probable P Daniel Ponce de Leon is pitching well when not looking for the Fountain of Youth in his off-days.

Pick: Cardinals (-117)

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

So much for sentimental (or political) picks on the Phillies to beat the Braves. Betting action for Sunday Night Baseball is almost a mirror image of the gambling trend prior to Atlanta’s 5-4 victory on Saturday, with Atlanta’s moneyline quickly shooting to 1-to-1.7 payoff odds despite what’s been a well-contested series so far. Maybe it’s the probable starter for Philly, hurler Matt Moore, who can accurately be called a journeyman after playing for 6 clubs on 2 continents. Moore was excellent in the Japanese league last season but only lasted into the 4th inning in his 2021 debut against the New York Mets. Philadelphia’s road woes make Atlanta’s ML a reasonable wager, but as the chess champion Emanuel Lasker said, when you see a good move, wait for a better one. Moore’s follow-up appearance (and his shaky stamina after a year facing finesse batters) means that the chances of a 2-1 Atlanta win are lessened while a blow-out becomes more likely. Philly will be the team trying to squeak-out a close win. Atlanta’s sluggers won’t be in the mood to let that occur.

Pick: Braves Run Line (+125)

4/10/21

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

To say that less runs are expected when Colorado plays away from home would be an understatement. Not only is the Colorado at San Francisco O/U total stationary at a meager (8.5) runs, a plurality of high-rollers have wagered the low side since betting markets opened on the Saturday ballgame.

To be sure, neither club’s offense sparkled in the series opener. San Francisco catcher Buster Posey’s big day helped Los Gigantes score a few late runs and prevail 3-1 as Johnny Cueto nearly pitched a complete game. Saturday’s pitching match-up of Logan Webb vs Chi Chi (don’t call me “Rodriguez”) Gonzalez could supply enough skill and experience to keep bats quiet again. But most effective hurlers don’t last 8+ innings, especially early in the season when managers stick stubbornly to the long-term plan. Colorado’s healthy scoring vs Arizona wasn’t all a matter of elevation. After all, the D-Backs only averaged 4.33 runs in the series. San Francisco’s “Under” streak could be ready to snap, and most importantly, a 10-15 MPH wind is expected to blow almost directly at the center-field wall.

Pick: Over 

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

The Philadelphia Phillies are the trendiest MLB ‘dog of Saturday night, drawing more action at (+115) than the L.A. Angels or Baltimore Orioles at similar prices. We can thank the schedule, designed to force familiar pitchers and hitters to face each other again very quickly. Braves and Phillies hurlers Ian “Jethro Tull” Anderson and Zach Elfin respectively whiffed 15 combined batters on April 4th as Philadelphia prevailed 2-1, but a lot of hardball speculators doubt that Atlanta (-135) will be able to follow-up an 8-1 victory in the current series’ opener on Friday, and expect a repeat of 4/4’s W/L outcome, given Philly’s superior start and a smattering of bullpen injuries for the hosts.

Don’t overlook the effect of wishful-thinking in the current political climate. A swath of closet sports gamblers consider Atlanta baseball a “heel” in the ongoing pro-wrestling match on cable news, especially when Braves fans engage in the anti-PC “Tomahawk Chop” at home games. Philadelphia may have started the season 5-2, but the Phillies floundered on the road late in 2020, and didn’t look very good in 2021’s maiden road game. Anderson is a young lion who could be a superstar soon, and Atlanta’s takers may thank Philly’s impulse-buyers for knocking some juice off the moneyline.

Pick: Braves 

4/9/21

Washington Nationals at L.A. Dodgers

Ballclubs like the Los Angeles Dodgers are not supposed to begin the spring at top form. They’re supposed to bide time patiently until taking over the division in June or July. But the Bums have begun 2021 in similar fashion as they ended 2020, slugging extra-base hits and relying on an A+ pitching staff to get through the tight spots. L.A. is a heavy favorite to earn a 6th victory in Friday’s series opener with visiting Washington, and a (-150) Run Line shows that a majority of handicappers don’t expect it to be a tight contest. The Washington Nationals have the batting and pitching to keep up with the defending champs, even though probable starter Joe Ross didn’t fare well in his last game against the Dodgers, and could easily be outlasted by L.A. starter Walker Buehler. It’s the mental state of the Nats that’s concerning, with the team facing its first road trip after a backsliding series loss to the Atlanta Braves and dealing with a laundry list of key players in quarantine.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line 

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians are drawing plenty of bets on a short (-190) moneyline for Friday’s series opener against the visiting Detroit Tigers. It’s an interesting gambling trend that less than 50% of the ballgame’s ML speculators are going with the underdog, despite the lower risk in Detroit’s odds and despite the fact that the Tigers won the maiden series of the season 2-1 over the Wahoos. It’s not as if Detroit is trotting-out a weak starting pitcher. Julio Teheran was solid against Cleveland in the earlier series, allowing only a single earned run and striking-out 5 batters while earning a win. Zach Plesac of the Reds played well in the same ballgame and will start again Friday, causing the O/U market to sit at a conservative (8.5) total runs. Gamblers appear to be too impatient to wager efficiently this early in the MLB campaign, perhaps remembering the full-on sprint of 2020. Managers are treating 2021 a little differently, and there’s no reason to pass up near 1-to-1 underdog Run Line odds for a visiting club that’s had the Indians’ number so far. It might be summer before Cleveland asserts its superiority in the AL Central, if at all.

Pick: Tigers Run Line 

4/8/21

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

MLB “system” gamblers were delighted by the Mariners-White Sox series finale on Wednesday, in which Seattle – surprise, surprise – staved off a series-sweep from a superior ballclub by beating Chicago after taking 2 losses from the visiting ChiSox. That leaves Chicago at a mediocre 3-4 on the season, but it’s way too early to read much into a losing record, and the White Sox will be fine if a home opener against Kansas City goes well. Veteran hurler and probable Chicago starter Lance Lynn was solid against the Angels in his maiden start of the year, while opposing Brad Keller of the Royals was chased by the Texas Rangers after recording 4 outs. Both pitchers will revert to the mean, but early-season starts can be a boon for old workhorses, and Chicago’s moneyline odds to win (-158) don’t feel quite juiced enough given a host ballpark, superior talent, and superior pitching.

Pick: White Sox

L.A. Angels at Toronto Blue Jays

The O/U total for a Toronto vs Los Angeles series opener on Thursday night has ticked up to (10) runs as the Blue Jays’ moneyline proves to be a popular choice at (-120). Is there any chance that a few intoxicated gamblers think Toronto’s “home opener” is anything but a neutral-site contest in Florida? It’s possible, since probable hurlers Ross Stripling and Griffin Canning weren’t exactly dead fish at the end of last season, and the ballclubs have been winning for Under-bets more often than high-side picks over the last handful of games. There’s no denying the Halos have a talented batting order, but each club is dealing with injuries, and TD Ballpark’s dimensions are more-or-less standard at 400 feet to the center field wall. That doesn’t mean U(10) is a fantastic pick for Thursday’s 2nd-to-last ballgame, but the ML could also provide an opportunity to fade the public. Toronto’s been scrapping for runs since Opening Day, with the Blue Jay offense looking particularly ineffective during a series-loss to the Texas Rangers. Mike Trout and the L.A. Angels are coming off a series-win over ChiSox and an impressive 2-game split with Houston that slowed a hot-starting Astros club down just a little bit. The Angels should relish the chance to play a weaker opponent in friendly Florida weather.

Pick: Angels 

4/7/21

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

Lick – touch – sizzle! Daily Double has begun the 2021 season the same way it ended the 2020 season, on a red-hot streak that includes 11 or 12 wins in our first 14 picks of the year, depending on the outcome of a delayed contest in Denver on Tuesday night. Rather than make reckless picks with “house money,” we’ll try to keep money away from the house by making another week’s worth of solid MLB predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies are drawing heavy action to a (-140) moneyline for a Wednesday closer vs New York, and despite the presence of Aaron Nola on the mound for the Phils, the trendy wager does not appear to be based on solid handicapping. The Metropolitans may be faltering less than their schedule has to begin the season, with Jacob deGrom shining on the mound and at the plate in the opener, and the offense producing more runs than total hits while running up a lead on Philly in the 2nd ballgame. Nola gave up a lot of runs to the Mets in 2020 while also striking a lot of batters out, and feast/famine style pitching doesn’t mix well with a (-1.5) Run Line that could allow Pete Alonzo’s club a backdoor cover. Probable New York starter David Peterson isn’t always as spectacular to watch, but was quietly effective near the end of the 2020 campaign.

Pick: Mets Run Line 

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

We’re not laying “2 bucks” on the New York Yankees, a 1-to-2 favorite for Wednesday’s closer against the visiting Baltimore Orioles, who have scored exactly 2 runs in 1 inning (the top of the 9th on Tuesday) in the series so far, losing twice in a row by lopsided scores. That’s drawing more action to New York’s thin line, but the O/U total of (9) runs is more interesting. Baltimore is a new opponent for Yankee starter Jameson Taillon, and it would be anomalous for a club to start 3-0 and then score 2 or 3 runs in the next 3-game series. Projected starter John Means has been called the Orioles’ “ace” but you wouldn’t know it from watching him play the Yankees.

Pick: Over 

4/6/21

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

Line-movement on MLB games has been subtle since the young 2021 season began. But there’s nothing subtle about the rush of wagers on the Atlanta Braves headed into Tuesday’s belated opener in Washington. Atlanta opened as a 1.3-to-1 underdog and quickly became a 1-to-1 risk to reward pick at (+100), even though highly-regarded Max Scherzer is scheduled to pitch for the Nationals. Bettors are clearly hoping that yet another COVID-19 roster scenario will lead to a thin, unorthodox lineup for Washington and that the Braves will benefit from having played prior to the contest while the Nats come in cold. Daily Double is recommending the Atlanta Braves’ run line as an alternative angle, since Atlanta is still technically a (+1.5) underdog and the most-likely winning scenario for the (perhaps?) underestimated Nationals is Scherzer pitching well and helping the hosts eke-out a 1-run victory.

Pick: Braves Run Line 

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

Coors Field is usually reliable to produce a high run total, at least when both ballclubs are motivated to focus and achieve good plate discipline that puts mile-high hurlers behind in the count. Tuesday’s series opener in Denver pits the Rox against the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks, 2 clubs in need of a victory after beginning the season 1-3. The contest’s O/U run total has dipped to (10.5) under strange weather circumstances of which MLB speculators might have an imperfect grasp of the consequences.

Firstly, a strong wind is expected to blow toward the plate, potentially negating the effect of the thin air on long fly balls. The weather forecast is so pronounced – with a 15-mph breeze blowing straight at the batter’s box – that you’d imagine the total would drop further in less time. Rain showers are expected that could help the ball fly over the fence due to the thinness of humid air. Yet the effect of rain or humid air on baseballs is overrated, especially considering that Colorado’s organization treats its baseballs to soak-up water and gain weight more easily than typical hardballs. It is unlikely that a fair drizzle will allow for 3 hours of rainy action on the diamond without a rain delay. Coors Field could become a pitcher’s ballpark for an evening and win for the low-side of another high total.

Pick: Under 

4/5/21

St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins

It wouldn’t feel like a genuine Major League Baseball season without the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds clearing dugouts to intimidate each other, and yet another such dust-up occurred during a debut series between Cincy and STL over the weekend. Not that anyone cared what the final scores were compared to fascination with fisticuffs, but the Redbirds can read respect into a (-110) Las Vegas line for a series opener at Miami on Monday, considering that the Reds won the closer in a blow-out. Daniel Ponce de Leon will take the mound for St. Louis and has a solid chance to out-pitch Miami’s Trevor Rogers, but smart gamblers remain as skeptical of each offense as they are attuned to psychology. If there’s a day in which both batting orders will be subdued, it’s this one, with the Cards recovering emotionally and the Marlins simply flat.

Pick: Under (8.5) 

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels

One day, it looks like Las Vegas is giving Oakland too much respect, and the next, it appears that the Astros’ opening opponent is getting no respect at all. Otherwise, why would the Houston Astros be a (+107) moneyline pick for a series opener against the L.A. Angels, a club that lost batter-pitcher Shohei Ohtani to an injury on Sunday Night Baseball at the tail end of a hard-fought series with the ChiSox? Sure, the A’s looked lousy for 4 straight days to begin the season, but Houston had a lot to do with that, overcoming boos and jeers from a sparse California crowd to score 35 runs in the series. Sharks have their eye on potentially vulnerable guest-hurler Luis Garcia, but the Halos took a while to even announce a start from Jose Quintana, whose ERA was actually inferior to Garcia’s last season. All in all, plus odds on a championship-level club with early-season momentum is rarely a bad wager.

Pick: Astros 

4/4/21

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics

Oakland is drawing bets at a pretty good rate for having been blown off its home diamond in 3 straight games. Following 3/4 of a series full of decisive wins for the visiting Houston Astros, the A’s are catching the eyes of speculators as a “system” pick in the same fashion as the victorious Miami Marlins did on Saturday, a host ballclub suffering from embarrassment that’s sure to play its best 9 innings to try to turn things around and avoid a sweep. However, there are substantial differences between the 2 betting scenarios, and it’s not just that Houston and Oakland play in the American League. Miami showed promise and an ability to hang with Tampa Bay defensively, whereas Oakland has been out-scored 26-7 in the series so far. Boos or no boos, Houston’s bats are hot, and the ‘Stros could cover today’s (8.5) O/U total by themselves. If Oakland helps, even better.

Pick: Astros and/or Over 

Chicago White Sox at L.A. Angels

2021’s maiden installment of Sunday Night Baseball features a ballclub that just about everyone agrees is improving headed into the 2020s – the talented Chicago White Sox. The ChiSox and the host L.A. Angels have waged a hard-fought series with the Halos emerging 4-3 winners on Opening Day and staging a comeback to prevail 5-3 on Saturday, but not without taking a 12-8 pounding from Chicago in Friday’s ballgame.

Bookmakers installed the Angels as a slight (-120) favorite for Sunday’s series closer, but picking a side involves a lot of luck. Probable ChiSox hurler Dylan Cease had a miserable finish to his 2020 campaign, and while Los Angeles starter Shohei Ohtani is a credit to international hardball and among the most-versatile players on any continent, his ongoing injury problems and failed experiments on the mound late last season make the host-hurler a wild card too. Given the number of live bats in the series and the issues with the bottom of each club’s rotation, it doesn’t seem logical that Sunday’s run total is still holding steady at (9) runs even.

Pick: Over 

4/3/21

Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins

While many MLB gamblers reflexively pick a home team to ward-off a sweep in the final game of an unlucky series, a better tactic could be to examine the specific circumstances around an 0-2 series start and determine if the hosts are downtrodden or ready to fight back.

Miami was a popular Friday moneyline pick to defeat Tampa Bay in the 2nd game of a 3-game set at Marlins Park, now known as LoanDepot Park. The Fish totaled 4 runs in the 7th and 8th innings and held a 4-2 lead, but infielder Joey Wendle of the Rays dinged a winning 3-run shot in the 9th frame, handing the Marlins another heartbreaking loss to open the 2021 season. Sin City sharks were correct about Miami’s bats coming alive on Friday, and Tampa Bay is pretty fortunate to be 2-0 in the series. Don Mattingly will babysit his bullpen through late innings to prevent a costly Tampa sweep, and should be steering a well-motivated club on Saturday.

Pick: Marlins (+105)

Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers

Can there be a logical “gold rush” to a betting line in an NL Central division that was as muddy as the Mississippi last year? Only if there’s a mismatch on the pitching mound. Milwaukee is a trending (-130) bet to defeat Minnesota on Saturday following the Brew Crew’s epic comeback win in extra innings. This isn’t the 1950s when the same closers pitched all the time, and the Twins’ bullpen woes from Opening Day might not be a factor on the weekend. But it’s the starting hurlers who could be the key to a successful pick on the ballgame.

Probable Twins starter Jose Berrios pitched well against Milwaukee last summer, but expected Milwaukee P Corbin Burnes is a burgeoning player who improved his ERA 4-fold in 2020 while losing just once in 12 appearances. Burnes has burned batters with an immense strikeout % and fared well enough in recent Cactus League ballgames to begin the year in top form.

Pick: Brewers 

4/2/21

Day 2 Redux: L.A. Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

Some of baseball’s betting line-movement for Friday night makes little sense, such as the rush of Miami moneyline bets following the Marlins’ bad Opening Day at the plate in a 1-0 loss to Tampa. But a “stock” O/U total of (11.5) for Dodgers at Rockies doesn’t appear to be moving fast enough, even though Colorado’s 8-5 debut victory would have beaten the ballgame’s O/U total easily were it not for a bizarre Dodger home run that turned into a single thanks to a baserunning error. Friday’s match-up of Antonio Senzatela vs visiting Trevor Bauer seems solid, but both pitchers were dinged-around by the current opponent last season, and L.A. will be prepared to fight for runs and a decisive win to avoid an embarrassing 0-2 start.

Pick: Over 

San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners

Let’s “spend” some of our stake money earned via a 2-0 Opening Day record and a Run Line win at “plus” odds on the Colorado Rockies. San Francisco’s follow-up (+1.5) Run Line market is carrying a steady payoff number at (-175) while the Giants’ ML mysteriously shifts into underdog territory. Gamblers probably think the Giants will win by a few runs or not at all, while dismissing any prediction of a 1-run SF victory. The angle becomes sharper when the corollary is applied to the host Seattle Mariners, though, who’re putting Yusei Kikuchi on the mound to go against Johnny Cueto on Friday. Kikuchi’s skills and stamina are not special enough to move the needle so much. Cueto has fared well historically against the M’s, and while one can imagine the hosts pulling out a gritty 4-3 win to even the series, the promise of an easy romp is not in the cards for Seattle at this particular time.

Pick: Giants Run Line 

4/1/21

*2021 MLB Season Opening Day*

L.A. Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

Welcome to another season of daily Major League Baseball previews and predictions! ‘Boppers can count on Daily Double for moneyline and run-total picks throughout the 2021 MLB season, but we’re always down to look at a Run Line once in a while, especially when a ML is so high-risk as (-220) on the defending World Series champions for an Opening Day contest in Colorado.

Championship baseball clubs tend to begin the MLB marathon at a leisurely pace, hoping to peak in late summer and win the pennant. 2020’s short season threw a wrinkle in that design, but 2021’s full slate should cause a reversion to the norm when it comes to early-season favorites. Clayton Kershaw is pitching for the Bums, but L.A.’s Run Line is way too juiced on the road at (-142).

Pick: Rockies (+1.5) 

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics

The 2021 season won’t be an immediate return to normalcy in all things baseball, and a lack of packed, vibrant stadiums on Opening Day could lead to a disadvantage for host clubs who would normally enjoy a morale boost from the spring fan support. Nonetheless, the Astros and A’s are at even (-110) odds to win Thursday’s opener in NorCal, given Oakland’s division triumph and the optimism surrounding probable pitcher Chris Bassitt, who takes on aging Zack Greinke of Houston. Greinke will probably exit by the 6th inning to give way to the ‘Stros bullpen, but his age won’t be a factor on Opening Day, and Houston has remained potent on offense even without trash-can-drumming cheat codes.

Pick: Astros

**************************************************************************************

(2020 Season Predictions)

Sunday MLB Closer – Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs

The stage is set for a rubber match between A-grade baseball clubs in Chi-Town. It’s been a long time since we could say that! An ugly hit-batter incident marred the 2nd outing in which the ChiSox claimed a revenge 9-5 victory after getting powdered in the opener. An iffy pitching match-up of Lopez vs Alzolay and loose batters having fun may be angles that appear to make the falling Over (9.5) a worthy wager, but managers will be cautious under the circumstances, allowing partial lineups to go 100% instead of asking every superstar to bat 6 times. As for the pitching staffs, 1 suspended hurler is enough, and they’ll be more careful too. Sleepy is probably the word of the day, until the rivals try to break a 2-2 tie in the late innings. (Yes, there’s a chance this outcome will be 15-13 and put a rotten cherry on top of an otherwise successful season of MLB touting.)

Pick: Under 

Sunday Closer Redux: Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox

No time to waste on a long-winded pick with the campaign ending. Boston has turned the Bos-at-Atl series into a statement of sorts, but the Braves don’t want to advance into the playoffs on a sour note, and will probably play well defensively even if the batting order doesn’t roar at full volume. As for the Red Sox, they’ll miss the elements of shock and surprise after giving the successful 2020 club all kinds of problems for 2 days.

Pick: Braves 

Enjoy the MLB postseason, ‘Boppers, and check WagerBop for recaps and handicapping throughout the 2020 playoffs and World Series.

Red Sox Wrap-Up Bloody Season in Atlanta 

Saturday’s latest eastern battle is its most intriguing in terms of the pitching scenario. Boston’s season was essentially over a long time ago. That’s why you haven’t heard much about the Red Sox from WagerBop lately, because when a talented club sits in the cellar, lines and outcomes are volatile, and a matter of luck and timing. Tanner Houck is a starting pitcher that some  ‘cappers like enough to predict a Boston win (or a least an Under (9.5) result) when the Red Sox play the Braves at Truist Park on Saturday evening. But the Braves may come out slugging behind an enigma of their own in Tucker Davidson. It’s a fun project for a club that’s otherwise bored to try to get a W for an 0-0 hurler.

Pick: Braves

Don’t Overlook the Obvious on Bums-Halos

Everybody likes the Over (9) for a Dodgers-Angels nightcap, since L.A. is likely to whale away on the Halo bullpen now that the American League team is out of the playoff hunt. However, there are all sort of weird macro-factors that could drive the total-outcome up or down. The Angels won’t be sacrificing any veteran bodies and could get worse offensively as the Bums get better, but then the Dodgers aren’t a desperate club themselves at the moment. You can imagine a 3-1 snoozer or a 10-2 Dodger win…the common denominator is the better, more-motivated side winning.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line (-1.5) 

9/26

Ladies and gentlemen, 1 day only…The Daily Triple! 

NY is the Popular Line…and Not Just Because it Pays More

The Metropolitans’ season is on the brink after dropping 2 out of 3 games to the Atlanta Braves (who have clinched an NL East crown) and the Tampa Bay Rays. All there is left to do is try to sweep the Washington Nationals in 4 games and hope vs hope that the standings work out in New York’s favor. Thursday’s 3-2 win looks like a good start on the scoreboard even though the Mets stranded a ton of base-runners. Gamblers love the visitors to win again on Friday anyway, shrinking the Mets’ ML to (+125), but Max Scherzer lurks as the opposing starter on an anxious evening.

Pick: Under (8.5) 

Reds Draw Action vs Twins in Minny

Cincinnati at Minnesota is another ballgame for which the shifting line belies a pitching match-up. Bettors seem to like Cincy (+130) but the Twins will enjoy a start from Jose Berrios and are likely to score enough runs to win at home.

Pick: Twins (-150) 

Handicapping the Oakland A’s Run Line

The Seattle Mariners rebounded from a series loss to San Diego by winning a best-of-3 against the Houston Astros, but it may not do the club a whole lot of good at 6 games below .500. Seattle is also hitting a soft spot in the rotation headed into a series opener in Oakland on Friday night. 2-4 Yusei Kikuchi is probably no match for Chris Bassitt of the A’s, but the best reasons to put your money on Moneyball with a (-105) host Run Line are that the Athletics are 20-8 at home this season, and still have visions of finishing 1st or 2nd overall in the American League.

Pick: Athletics Run Line (-1.5) 

9/25

St. Louis an Underdog vs Own Farm Team…Just Kidding

You could imagine many scenarios in which the Cardinals might lose to the lowly Kansas City Royals on Wednesday night, but it was hard to foresee the Redbirds getting trounced by nearly double-digit runs. KC dinged Carlos Martinez around early and often, posting a surprise series win. Gamblers have responded by moving St. Louis to a (+143) underdog’s line against visiting Milwaukee on Thursday, as the Brewers have more to play for than the Royals probably do right now, and theoretically should be able to leave the Gateway City with playoff hopes alive. Kwang-Hyun Kim faces Corbin Burnes in an expected pitcher’s duel in the opener, though, and STL knows how to play small-ball.

Pick: Cardinals Run Line (+1.5) 

Sorry ‘Boppers, due to a mishap, a scratched prediction for tonight has made it a Daily Single. We’ll follow-up with a “triple” tomorrow 9/25.

9/23

Cards Scrappy, Undervalued vs Cellar Dwellers

Welcome to another special “afternoon edition” of the Daily Double, brought to you by a ‘capper who spent too much time celebrating the Bronx Bombers putting an end to our brief losing streak last night. It’s important to finish the year solidly after building that bankroll with a nuclear-hot summer. I’m touting a pair of late-night ballgames as a courtesy of browsers who need time to find our picks, but even though the Cardinals aren’t as sexy of a Wednesday nightcap-favorite as the L.A. Dodgers, the Redbirds have the fatter odds at (-130) and are the stronger bet to defeat Kansas City. P Carlos Martinez is more of an “opener” for St. Louis at this point, and will be yanked early on the road if there’s trouble. Meanwhile, Danny Duffy may help win for KC Run Line bettors by a run, but that’s the best a cellar club can do after dropping 4 of its last 5.

Pick: Cardinals 

Battle of Untimely Slumpers in San Fran

Because of the gaggle of National League clubs hanging around .500, the San Francisco Giants and – yes – even the Colorado Rockies are in reach of playoff bids. But neither team is playing like it wants to keep going after this weekend. Rox haven’t won a series since the 1st week of September, and the Giants are still wobbling their way out of a sweep rivalry-series loss to San Diego. Logan Webb is a hurler that gamblers entrust to a shrinking (-192) moneyline for the host Gigantes. However, Webb hasn’t been throwing past the 4th or 5th inning very often, making the ballgame a crap-shoot and a better bet on the underdog and the high side of a modest Over/Under line.

Pick: Rockies Run Line (+1.5) and/or Over (9) 

9/22

White Sox a Hot ‘Dog in Cleveland

Is the pennant race really a clue to what’s going to occur on the diamond next, or is our time better spent looking at individual match-ups and subtle angles? Gamblers know that the Chicago White Sox of the AL Central are desperate to keep winning with the Minnesota Twins a wafer’s breadth behind at 1 and 1/2 games. Even though the ChiSox are essentially guaranteed a decent playoff seed at this point, a division title would mean a lot. But we’re thinking handicappers have more than motivation in mind as Chicago’s “sexy” underdog line shrinks to (+155) for Tuesday afternoon’s ballgame at Progressive Field. Cal Quantrill is a talented hurler with whom Cleveland is being very careful from a pitch-count POV, while Reynaldo “Ruy” Lopez of the White Sox will probably last longer. The idea is that Chicago will bat successfully against the Indian bullpen for at least 4 or 5 innings. Not sure if that’s enough to call the guests true favorites, but I’m feeling a run total close to the 11 runs scored in Monday’s opener.

Pick: Over (8) 

Succinct Will Suffice on Blue Jays-Pinstripes

We’ve printed some long-winded handicaps over the last few days – with diminishing success. So here’s a quickie.

The Yankees and Blue Jays – the latter of which have ruined a hot mid-season with poor starting and finishing form – are averaging a combined 10+ runs per game, and the Yanks are poised to knock Tanner Roark of Toronto around for 3-5 innings on Tuesday evening. Given the Blue Jays’ bankrupt fielding effort at times this season, that’s not a good recipe for touting the Under on a sub-10 run O/U line.

Pick: Over (9.5) 

9/21

Phillies May Need 3 or 4 in Washington

For all of Daily Double’s boasting of a mid-season hot streak, your pundit also admits to having made a stupid call on 2020’s last-place MLB clubs. I predicted in June that the shortened season and quick eliminations from the pennant race would turn struggling teams into dead-in-the-water patsies by September. It hasn’t worked out that way. Ballclubs like the Nationals, Red Sox, and Royals are fighting to the finish with lots of strong individual efforts, even though a GM can always excuse a hot batting average or ERA over a small sample-size.

The Philadelphia Phillies are trying to earn a wild card spot in the National League, and appear blessed with a 4-game series in Washington. The Nats, however, just clobbered Miami 15-0 on Sunday. Is the Phillies’ Run Line worth giving (-1.5) runs at (-105) payoff for Monday’s opener against a dangerous cellar team? Yes, but only because 4-0 Zack Wheeler is starting for Philadelphia after getting snake-bitten in a strong outing against the Mets last week.

Pick: Phillies Run Line 

Astros, M’s Wind Up Unlikely Wild Card Hopefuls

I’ve avoided touting batting averages and ERA numbers in 2020 because so many such stat lines can be skewed to insignificance by a short season. But it’s interesting to see that Seattle – lowly Seattle – has a few superior %s in the lineup than Houston after 50+ ballgames. M’s catcher Austin Nola is hitting .308 and slugging an outstanding .531. While the Mariners don’t have the pitching or athleticism to win a pennant, the club is actually still in the race for a Wild Card spot in the postseason. The Astros are too, of course, and just beat the D-Backs in a pair of consecutive 3-2 squeakers to solidify the team’s record at 27-26. A sturdy pitching match-up of Marco Gonzales vs Lance McCullers Jr. has combined with the Astros’ low-scoring wins to shrink an already-cautious O/U to (8) total runs on the Seattle-Houston opener Monday night. I’m not feeling that line-movement given the crucial scenario and last-ditch pinch hitting decisions to be made by teams hungry for a series win.

Pick: Over 

9/20

Braves Battle to Hold Off Unlikely Upstart

What if someone had said 2 months ago (for all I know, someone may have said it) that the fiercest MLB division race of September would come down to Atlanta, Philadelphia…and Miami? Strangely enough, the upstart Marlins might have the hottest momentum of the 3 ballclubs. Miami has won the last 2 contests of a 5-game stint with Washington and will play a doubleheader before meeting the Braves, who are being pushed to accumulate a magic number by next weekend at just (+2.5) games ahead in the NL East. Gamblers seem to like Atlanta (-105) to beat the host New York Mets behind P Kyle Wright on Sunday afternoon, but with Rick Porcello throwing again for the Mets, the (9.5) Over/Under line seems too conservative given 2 pitchers averaging about 5 catch-as-catch-can innings per appearance.

Pick: Over

Cubs Hope to Seal the Deal by Mid-Week

The Chicago Cubs will play a 3-game rivalry series with the ChiSox to cap off the regular season, but it’s looking as though the meeting could be a ceremonial outing for 2 clinched division-winners. It may prove an easier task for the Cubbies, who are nearly 5 games ahead of St. Louis and play the lowly Pirates in the next series, than the White Sox – who have the Minnesota Twins hot on their trail. Minnesota is a (+135) underdog for Sunday Night Baseball against the National League club in Chi-Town, but the paradoxical pairing of Yu Darvish and Jose Berries throwing in the batter’s ballpark of Wrigley Field has bookmakers wary of committing to Over/Under markets. Minnesota’s offense is so feast or famine that I dare not recommend the Twins (+1.5). Over (7.5) or Under (9) are provisional value bets for when lines are available.

Pick: Cubs Run Line (-1.5) 

9/19

When Only 1 Major Market is Moving (At All)

Moneylines are almost completely stationary for Major League Baseball on Saturday. Daily Double isn’t naive enough to think that every high-roller is deferring to bookmaker opinion. More likely, not enough “sexy” predictions are catching-on because of the saturation of weekend sports markets like the Premier League and NFL. Over/Under totals are moving – namely falling slowly – across a few MLB markets. But our only “R-rated” suggestion is that the St. Louis Cardinals’ odds and not the Redbird O/U line should be shrinking. Sin City forecasts (8) total runs and falling for the 4th of 5 ballgames in Pittsburgh. The Pirates beat the Cardinals in a token opener, but St. Louis has controlled the series since then, and if gamblers think a start from visiting P Kwang Hyun Kim is a reason to pick the Under (surely host hurler Mitch Keller isn’t sparking the trend) then why is the favorite’s Run Line still a cool (-110)? St. Louis needs the series desperately – Pittsburgh needs the offseason.

Pick: Cardinals Run Line 

Morton Tries to Salt Away 4th of 5 in Baltimore

Division-leading Tampa Bay has been making a case as the world’s best baseball team with a modest payroll, but the Rays must hold off a pricier New York Yankee lineup that’s making a late charge at the AL East crown. 5 games of a sweep in Baltimore would come in handy for sure, and Tampa has won the first 3 so far with a mix of slugging and error-free fielding in tight ballgames. Just 2 runs were enough to propel the Rays to a win on Friday as P Tyler Glasnow fanned 10 batters while building the lead. Charlie Morton is Saturday’s name-brand visiting starter at Camden Yards, but watch for host hurler Jorge Lopez to match Morton’s early innings and produce a 3rd low-scoring nailbiter in the series.

Pick: Under 

9/18

Royals a Rare In-Vogue Underdog on Friday

There are a bunch of Friday underdog lines that gamblers aren’t especially taking to, but an exception in Milwaukee as the Kansas City Royals are a shrinking (+127) bet to prevail in a series opener vs the Brew Crew. Milwaukee is still technically in the National League playoff chase at 23-26, but Kansas City’s record may be deceiving Las Vegas at 21-29. Last place may be an all-too-familiar spot for the Royals, but KC has won 7 of its last 10, and will pitch 3-3 Danny Duffy against struggling Adrian Houser of the Brewers. Duffy helped blank the Cleveland Indians in his most-recent start on 9/9.

Pick: Royals 

Banner Year in Chi-Town Picks Up Steam

The Chicago Cubs appear to be getting the mojo back. 4 wins in a row have helped to solidify the club’s grip on the NL Central, and 2 of the Cubbies’ 3 starting outfielders are slugging above .500. (LF Kyle Schwarber, slugging only .406, has nevertheless batted 10 home runs in 50 games.) Kyle Hendricks is yet another quality go-to on the mound in Friday night’s opener against the visiting Minnesota Twins. But don’t be quick to jump on the Chi-Town bandwagon at (-135) moneyline odds – the Twins are even more desperate to keep winning and close the gap on the AL Central-leading White Sox. Minny’s bats have quieted down recently, but in a hitter’s park, I’m liking the Over (8.5) for a ballgame that could go into extra innings tied 4-4 and clinch the Over win before a 9th run is scored.

Pick: Over 

9/17

Chase Indeed: Yankees Could Continue to Crush Blue Jay Pitching

What are the Toronto Blue Jays doing better than other Cinderella candidates who’re under .500 in 2020? Lots of good things, maybe, but given recent developments, handicappers may stop answering that question with glowing praise of Toronto batters and pitchers – especially pitchers – and posit that the Canadian club simply played a nice manageable schedule for a month or so. The Blue Jays have collapsed from the mound and on defense against high-priced Big Apple clubs in 3 of the last 5 contests and in the last 2 games consecutively, losing 18-1 to the Mets on Friday and giving up 33 combined runs to the Yankees in 2 outings this week. Gamblers think the Yanks (-230) will chase Chase Anderson off the rubber early in Thursday night’s series closer, but scheduled New York starter Masahiro Tanaka is holding the O/U at (9.5) total runs.

Pick: Yankees Run Line (-1.5) 

Rox Beyond Rescue Headed Into 4 Battles With Bums

Cue corny TV commercial: “Sleepy Major League nightcaps got you snoozing? How about a late-night trip…miles high?” Okay, that’s closer to a stoner-themed Jack In The Box ad. But the point stands – despite the Rockies’ presence in a western state we don’t often get to see night-capping games (or “bailout” ballgames in gambling terms) in such a batter-friendly venue as Coors Field. The Colorado Rockies have pitched well and batted poorly in consecutive series with the Angels and Athletics, and will rely heavily on starting hurlers to put the club on solid footing throughout a 4-game meeting with Cody Bellinger and the L.A. Dodgers. But even if the Rox were to somehow win the series 3-1, they’re not going to make the playoffs, which means skipper Bud Black is ready to roll with untested relief pitchers as soon as soon as starter Kyle Freeland is dismissed by the Bums on Thursday night. L.A. starter Julio Urias is 3-0 on the season and knows how to cut his losses to prevent big rallies…which Dodger bats are likely to produce in thin air.

Pick: Dodgers (-160) 

9/16

Public Buys Low, Sells Short on MLB O/U Totals

Once again, Daily Double has chosen to track AM line-movement on a pair of late-night contests, hoping to pick vs the betting public and snap out of a brief slump that has brought our picks to single-digits above .500 on the season. But when seeking to pick against the public, it’s important to examine why line-movement is taking place, instead of taking for granted that it’s foolhardy. Gamblers have pulled an Over/Under total for the Cubs-Indians return bout on Thursday from (7.5) to (8), but is it because they’ve recognized how fragile and likely to miss some of Las Vegas’ “Under” predictions are this season, or because of irrational belief in batting prowess? WagerBop will side with the former theory this time, because Chicago was able to overcome a massive outing from Cleveland SS Francisco Lindor and 8 combined hits from the Indian outfield in a 6-5 series-opening triumph on Wednesday. Jon Lester is starting for the Cubs, but I don’t see Chicago winning Thursday night’s ballgame 2-1 with each lineup finding ways to score vs quality pitching.

Pick: Cubs (-110) and/or Over (8) 

Giants Too Giant a Favorite in Nightcap ML

The Seattle Mariners have played their way back into the fringes of contention in the American League ranks, though losing to Oakland 9-0 in 7 innings on Wednesday could threaten to bust the M’s momentum. Twas lousy pitching that done it as much as quiet bats – Seattle squeezed 6 very solid innings out of P Marco Gonzales in a 6-5 opening win, but all 3 Mariner hurlers pitched their way into impossible jams in the follow-up. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants deserve better than to be 10 games back in the NL West, but can take heart in the lack of winning records around the league. Both starting pitchers in Thursday’s series-opening Mariners vs Giants nightcap have been yanked early in consecutive starts, meaning bullpens may decide the contest. Does San Fran have an advantage in relief pitching and available pinch-batters? Sure, but not as decisive as gamblers think – gamblers who have shrunk the Giants’ ML close to 1-to-2.

Pick: Mariners (+145) 

9/15

Mets and Under the Popular Lean for Philly Opener

With the visitors’ moneyline for the New York Mets’ opener in Philadelphia on Tuesday shrinking to (-130) and the total falling from (10) to (9.5), it’s clear that wiseguys expect the Mets to win a relevatively low-scoring ballgame. While it’s true that the Metropolitans used-up all their run scoring in game #1 of a sour series with Toronto prior to the meeting, the Phillies are demoralized themselves after dropping all but 1 contest in Miami. Like the ML movement the dropping O/U is correlated with Philadelphia’s lagging bats, but with each club poised to go deep into its bullpen, the former popular bet is the safer pick.

Pick: Mets 

Cubs vs Indians Odds Still Convalescing in AM

We haven’t had much opportunity to check on the Cleveland Indians at Daily Double this season, and must apologize to fans in northeast Ohio for only bringing the team up now. That’s because Cleveland is on a 5-game losing streak, a slump that would be manageable in any other year, but threatens to knock the Indians out of the playoffs in the short season of 2020. Strong starting hurlers highlight Tuesday night’s opener between the Indians and the Chicago Cubs at Progressive Field as Yu Darvish takes on visiting Carlos Carrasco. But even as bookmakers seem shy to put out early Run Lines, an opening-consensus O/U of (8.5) seems a tick too high considering that each pitcher has been consistently standing tall on the mound into late innings.

Pick: Under 

9/14

Gamblers Cease to be Confident in ChiSox

Just as the Pinstripes’ 4-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles helped to shape an AL East division race going forward, the Minnesota Twins visit the Chicago White Sox for a 4-game meeting to determine 2020’s stretch front-runner in the American League Central. Bettors are shy of the ChiSox (+112) with P Dylan Cease scheduled on the mound on Monday, but Cease is 5-3 this season, though up-against a solid hurler in Jose Berrios of the Twins. Minnesota bats have been warming over the past few games, but the White Sox are hot too, and have won 5 more ballgames at Guaranteed Rate Field than the Twins have won in 22 road appearances.

Pick: White Sox and/or Over (9) 

Total Drawn Low for Expected Pitcher’s Duel

San Diego has had a few ballgames go “Under” the Sin City total lately, and not simply because the Padres have played some 7-inning contests. The Pads just held the San Francisco Giants to a grand total of 2 runs in a 3-game sweep over the weekend, starter Mike Clevinger posting a 2-hit complete game and a shut-out in Sunday’s early game. Cody Bellinger and the L.A. Dodgers clearly pose a superior threat from the plate, and I’m counting on L.A.’s livelier at-bats to help blunt the Padres’ fielding prowess in what should be a close Dodger win behind Clayton Kershaw in Monday’s series-opening nightcap at Petco Park. Dinelson Lamet is pitching for the Padres, but he’ll be bound to leave the mound by inning #7. Forget the O/U of (8) – focus on a tight ML.

Pick: Dodgers (-130) 

9/13

Yankee Wins Yank NY Moneyline Short for Closer

The Bronx Bombers are using a 4-game rivalry series as a springboard in the pennant race, clocking the Baltimore Orioles in the opening 3 games despite the O-Birds’ improved form in 2020. Thursday and Friday were dominant wins for the hosts, but on Saturday the Yankees won a pitcher’s duel 2-1 behind 9 Ks from Jordan Montgomery and a quartet of solid bullpen hurlers. Say what you will about the chances of sweeping 4-game series, but Sunday afternoon is likely to end in just that scenario. Baltimore isn’t hosting, and neither club is atop its pitching rota for the closer, so I find it more than reasonable that Las Vegas likes New York (-205), a pricey team trending upward, over the Orioles – a budget team trending downward, thanks to the Yankees.

Pick: Yankees Run Line (-1.5) 

9/12

Top vs Cellar Division Battle Draws Tight Line

What factors would cause Las Vegas and London speculators to draw tight odds on a 1st place team vs a last-place team? For a start, the NL East’s Atlanta at Washington series has produced 2 excellent ballgames so far. The Braves followed an historic 20-run win over Miami with a 7-6 win in the opener, but the Nats fought back with an extra-innings victory on Friday despite Atlanta DH Marcell Ozuna swatting an immense 5 hits in 6 at-bats. Washington is a talented, losing club with a spoiler’s point to prove, and a (-105) bet to win Saturday’s 3rd contest. But it isn’t a rubber match, and although our buddy The Corbin Project is hurling for the Nats, Ian “Jethro Tull” Anderson of the front-running Braves is the better 70s reference (and wager) this time.

Pick: Braves 

Weird Nightcap and Weirder Records

It’s not just an NL Central nightcap on Saturday, it’s a truly strange match-up of a striding club that can take on the division leaders, and a horse-fly that just won’t let go. St. Louis’ “all-average” record of .500 home, away, and overall (in addition to 5-5 in the last 10 games!) belies the Cardinals’ stubborn streak and the fact that the Chicago Cubs aren’t running away from the Redbirds in the race for 1st. But the Reds won a series opener 3-1 at Ballpark Village behind a complete game from P Luis Castillo. Solid pitching and fielding (and a lack of monster bats) has Saturday night’s O/U total sitting at (8.5), but I’m more interested in a fattening (-115) line on the Cardinals, who appear due to dismiss Cincy behind starter Dakota Hudson and set up a series rubber-match.

Pick: Cardinals 

9/11

Our humble regrets on posting today’s picks on a late, lazy California morning (thankfully not an apocalyptic-orange one) but we’ve been tracking some shifting lines on a pair of Friday MLB nightcaps.

(If you’re staying home to watch late-Friday night baseball you’re either a fanatic or a quarantine victim, either of which leaves plenty of time to read picks in the PM.)

Gamblers Don’t Trust Halos to Capitalize in CO

It’s rare to see an O/U total trend downward when batters like Albert Pujols and Mike Trout are visiting Coors Field in the thin mountainous air of Colorado. But gamblers are expecting the Angels to fall back again following a brief decent stretch that still leaves L.A. too far back to catch up in the pennant race, moving the run total to (12) instead of sending it soaring to (13) or (14) for Friday night’s Rox vs Angels opener. Expected visiting starter Griffin Canning has skills to belie an 0-3 record, lending credence to the betting action. But starters aren’t pitching complete games for contenders or pretenders alike, and I’m not liking Colorado starter German Marquez’s chances for an epic outing.

Pick: Over 

Favorite and Underdog MLs Reverse in AZ

There is no denying that the Seattle Mariners are an improved ballclub in 2020, though the team’s poor road record may ensure that it misses the postseason. Bookmakers figured Arizona (formerly (-115) on opening) would handle Seattle in Friday’s nightcap opener at Chase Field, but gamblers have turned the tables with a new line of L.A. (-120). Part is of the reason is doubt that host hurler Caleb Smith will substantially out-play or out-last visiting starter Yusei Kikuchi. But wiseguys also noticed the Ms looking alive on the diamond while the D-Backs ponder golf and 2021.

Pick: Mariners 

9/10

Matching Moneylines in Magic City

How about a “system” pick to try to kick-start another Daily Double winning streak? The realization that most clubs have less than 20 ballgames to go has gamblers looking at the standings, and the Miami Marlins are among the few true underdogs with a chance to make noise in September. Sin City is paying respect to the Fish with matching (-110) moneylines on Philadelphia at Miami on Thursday evening despite the dangerous Phillies standing 21-18 and 2 games back in the NL East. and despite the Marlins giving up a staggering 29 runs to the division-leading Braves in Wednesday’s historic closer. But my focus is on Thursday’s Over (9) payoff of (+100) and our 2020 success in picking mispriced Over bets below (10) and Under bets on double-digit O/U numbers. Each starting pitcher in the Miami-Philly opener (Sandy Alcantera and Jake Arrieta) has had serious early-innings issues in his last 2 outings.

Pick: Over 

Bookmakers Skeptical of Hapless Gigantes Hurler

The Giants and Padres are a pair of upstarts (if not long-shots) who still have a shot at the pennant, and bettors like San Diego to win Thursday’s opener with visiting San Francisco. P Trevor Cahill is the culprit behind a long-shot underdog’s line of (+175) for Gigantes, a player who can’t stay on the mound long enough to help a worthy bullpen play to its potential. We’re all for rating Cahill a steep underdog against the Pads, but San Diego starter Chris Paddock hasn’t pad-locked too many offenses lately. Over and Favorite Win are still correlated most of the time, right? So why is the O/U just (8.5) with batting orders clicking, each team on a hot streak, and just a 9 MPH expected breeze blowing to the corner?

Pick: Over 

9/9

Nostalgic Series Underlines Clubs’ Present Problems

Among the more colorful inter-league series of 2020 is the current 2-game stint between the New York Mets and visiting Baltimore Orioles. But peanuts and Cracker-Jacks won’t erase the present-day dilemmas faced by both historic clubs. Baltimore needs a sweep to keep playoff hopes healthy, and New York has to put a hot streak together in short-order. The Orioles dominated the opener on Tuesday for the guests’ 4th win in as many ballgames, CF Cedric Mullens pacing the O-Birds with 3 hits in an 11-2 romp. Bookmakers like Rick Porcello of the Mets (-152) to out-gun Jorge Lopez and the Orioles on Wednesday, but the counter-intuitive gambling line almost seems to mimic what Las Vegas would do with a division-rivalry series in which the hosts needed to win the final meeting to avoid a sweep. Baltimore’s momentum is a plus, not a minus. The series isn’t Yankees-Red Sox, and the Orioles haven’t been beating the Mets for 3 days.

Pick: Orioles Run Line (+1.5) 

Gamblers Trust Teheran in Texas

Julio Teheran and the L.A. Angels opened as underdogs for Wednesday night’s 2nd of 3 contests with the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. After all, Teheran is leading a club that has played its way out of the pennant race already, and which lost Tuesday’s opener 7-1. Worse, the hurler lost his last outing vs San Diego. But it’s not up for debate that the Rangers are in worse straits than the Halos, who have out-played the cellar ballclub over the last 2 weeks. Opposing starter Kyle Cody pitched all of 3 innings to drop to 0-1 on the season against the Mariners, and WagerBop aligns with the moneyline action that has moved the Angels into a favorite’s market of (-122) as of Wednesday morning.

Pick: Angels 

9/8

Enigma on Mound Leads to Tight Line in STL

The Minnesota Twins would seem to be an obvious pick at (-120) for the 1st of 2 games in St. Louis on Tuesday. Jose Berrios is starting for the Twins following another effective 6-inning day and a win over the White Sox. The Cardinals are pitching Carlos Martinez, a summer COVID-19 case who has labored to regain the form of his mid-20s. But handicappers are convinced Martinez will have a good outing against a high-powered division rival, plunging the O/U to (7). I’m not as swayed by whatever Sin City sees this time.

Pick: Twins and/or Over 

Total Rises for Rox at Pads

The golfer Chi Chi Rodriguez used to put his hat over the hole after making a birdie. Chi Chi Gonzales, the Colorado Rockies’ starter on Tuesday night in San Diego, may be a mad hatter to think he can beat a zoned-in Mike Clevinger and the Padres. Gamblers don’t think so, rating the Pads as a (-240) favorite despite the club opening at a chintzy 1-to-2 price. But the total is also rising despite the fact that Colorado’s batting numbers are always inflated, and San Diego’s identity as a methodical club that will be happy with small rallies after taking an early lead.

Pick: Under 

9/7

Yankees Deal With an Ace in Canada

Believe it or not, Daily Double took a sigh of relief when the Braves vs Nationals game went over the Sin City run total on Sunday. A week of 10-0-0 or 15-0-1 predictions would have to be partially due to good luck, which would be sure to run out and disappoint expectations going forward. It’s sort of the pop-handicapper’s version of a successful gambler not wanting to get thrown-out of the house.

The New York Yankees were once hot enough to get dirty looks from opposing fans if not pit bosses, but a mid-season downturn and a ghastly away-record could prevent the Pinstripes from even reaching the 2020 postseason. The Yanks lost a series to AL-East leader Tampa Bay, allowed 9 runs in a 1-off loss to the rival Mets, then lost a 4-game series with Baltimore while falling to 3rd place behind Toronto. The Blue Jays will pitch ace Hyun-Jin Ryu against Jordan Montgomery in Monday’s series opener with the Yankees, leading to a favorite’s moneyline on the Canadian club. But the underdog hurler has been pretty solid outside of a mishap vs the Rays and should help New York’s batting order keep the score tight in an absolute must-win scenario.

Pick: Yankees Run Line (+1.5)  

‘Stros Underdog Line Marks Turning Point in Houston Odds

Without a handful of doubleheaders scheduled on Labor Day, it’s time to drop the macro-analysis of each depth chart and pitching stable and focus on some individual numbers. Houston’s (+130) moneyline to win the 1st of a 5-game stint with Monday’s host Oakland A’s is far from the sexiest pick on the betting board, but gamblers may be looking at the Athletics’ fine overall W/L record and not the team’s last 10 results, which match Houston’s at 4-6. Injuries have thinned the Space City batting order, but LF Kyle Tucker and DH Michael Brantley are slugging well over .500. Tucker posted 3 hits and 3 more RBIs in a truncated loss to the Halos on Saturday. Gamblers don’t think Frankie Montas vs guest hurler Cristian Javier is a big mismatch despite Javier winning 2x as many times and holding about half the ERA of Montas. But the Oakland heavyweight is getting yanked early in ballgames, meaning that the Astros will have a chance to methodically wear down the A’s bullpen.

The betting public may finally be starting to undervalue Houston after overvaluing a club without its most potent (and illegal) weapon early in summer.

Pick: Astros 

9/6

Braves and Nats Produce Tight Line in Atlanta

Daily Double is nuclear-hot with a 70%+ streak since mid-August and 59% season winners on bets not pushed. While it would probably be wise to look into new markets following a satisfying O/U pick on a 2-0 Saturday, the Over/Under might be a better way to take advantage of the pitching scenario in Atlanta on Sunday than the Washington Nationals’ popular (and shrinking) (+107) moneyline. Patrick “Colossus: The Corbin Project” Corbin will be starting in the closer vs host hurler Josh Tomlin, but although Corbin looks like a classic case of a potential ace holding up the world for a flailing ballclub, and though Tomlin hasn’t been winning baseball games, each has gotten little help from batters. Corbin is likely to out-last Tomlin but I’m not feeling Washington’s lineup against the Braves’ bullpen despite a pair of high-scoring outcomes in the series.

Pick: Under (9.5) 

Bettors Taking Bums at Premium Prices

The consensus Las Vegas and London run total is also O/U (9.5) for the back-end of a Sunday night doubleheader, but the moneyline is as lopsided as you might expect with P Julio Urias leading the L.A. Dodgers against the visiting Colorado Rockies, with the latter club just treading water in the middle of the NL West. Rox batters haven’t been so bad in the heavy air of opposing parks, in fact, the team has a better W/L record on the road, and has split a pair of outings with L.A. prior to Sunday’s rubber match. But the guests are pitching Ryan Castellani, who was blown off the diamond by San Diego and Houston in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Bums stranded 8 runners in Saturday’s loss.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line (-1.5) 

9/5

Handicappers Think Snell’s About to Snare a Marlin

Miami is watching its brave pennant bid go a-glimmer. The Marlins have slipped under the .500 mark, nearly 5 games behind the NL East division-leading Atlanta Braves with just over 50 combined ballgames left to go. Fish fought hard in Friday’s inter-league opener at Tampa Bay, out-playing the AL East leaders with exception of Pablo Lopez giving up a 3-run double to Rays catcher Michael Pérez that made the difference in Tampa’s 6-5 win. Gamblers don’t think Miami (+200) will damage Tampa Bay starter Blake Snell in Saturday’s follow-up yet the O/U is rising from (7) to (7.5). Daily Double’s 2020 SOP aligns perfectly with the public’s opinion.

Pick: Over 

Resurgent M’s Prompt Favorite’s ML on Saturday Night 

Is the 3-game Seattle winning streak a product of improving hardball, or just statistical noise? It’s harder to discount “short” winning or losing streaks in a short season, since teams are bringing A-games every day. Seattle fielders protected 2-1 and 6-3 victories without making an error on Thursday and Friday. Respect for the M’s defense is reflecting in a falling O/U of (8.5) for Saturday night’s follow-up with the Texas Rangers, but bettors don’t feel the same about Seattle’s chances to win 4 in a row, with the Texas moneyline shrinking to (+116). It bears mentioning, though, that betting against a win streak can suffer from a “coin-flip” fallacy – yes, the coin is unlikely to land on heads 10 straight times, but each toss is still 50-50. The Lone Stars are having a poor season and will try a struggling Kyle Gibson on the mound, while Seattle’s Justus Sheffield is coming off a bad outing vs L.A. that looks like an anomaly when compared to his previous starts.

Pick: Mariners 

9/4

It’s All About That Run Total…Low-Side Style

As baseball clubs get into the grueling part of the schedule – what “grueling” there is in a 60-game slate – gamblers seem more and more inclined to pick the low side of the O/U total when pitchers show the slightest promise. All kinds of totals are sinking prior to Friday’s ballgames, and the most-promising of such bets could be the (9.5) total on the New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies. A match-up of starters Jake Arrieta and host Rick Porcello promoted Sin City to open with a double-digit O/U line, but the Phillies have been winning with defense, and the Mets’ hurler hasn’t gotten much help from his batters in 2 of 4 losses.

Pick: Under 

Host Bullpen a Key Angle in Los Angeles

Houston has a popular (-116) moneyline for Friday night’s series opener against the host L.A. Angels. Given that L.A.’s probable pitcher Dylan Bundy possesses twice as handy of an ERA (and then some) as counterpart Lance McCullers Jr., there’s more than the listed hurlers involved in pregame gambling action. Bundy isn’t going to pitch a complete game unless providence smiles on every inning, and wiseguys are correct to think the ‘Stros can do damage against the Angel bullpen. However, there’s also a chance that the Halos will win thanks to superior pitching in the opening 4-5 innings, and if you’re not into 5-innings markets, there’s betting value in an educated guess that L.A. will hang tight and play spoiler against a division rival.

Pick: Angels Run Line (+1.5) 

9/2

What’s Really Holding the Total Down?

Sometimes there are so many factors affecting an MLB run total, it’s hard to say whether the line-movement is caused by 1 or 2 angles or just a combination of everything. Toronto and Miami are at O/U (7.5) runs and falling for Wednesday evening’s closer at Marlins Park with Hyun-jin Ryu and Sixto Sanchez starting for the visiting and host clubs respectively. It’s more than just the impressive hurlers, though – Toronto’s series with Baltimore was low-scoring, Miami’s 1-off with the New York Mets was low-scoring, and Tuesday’s 2-game-series opener included a total of 5 runs. Considering that the Marlins can challenge the Blue Jay bullpen a little more aggressively than the slumping Orioles can, and that a 5-3 outcome wins the Over, I’m betting against the action once again.

Pick: Over 

Gamblers Trust Allard, Rangers as Underdogs in Houston

While the Houston Astros are having a fine season under the circumstances, Space City fans are beginning to worry that the club’s penchant for losing on the road could turn into a lack of nerve at home. The ‘Stros recently blew a chance to sweep the Padres at Minute Maid Park prior to a 3-day string of postponed ballgames, then lost Tuesday’s opener to Texas in extra innings despite a strong outing from Framber Valdez. Gamblers love the Rangers’ underdog line-to-win Wednesday night’s contest, currently (+185) payoff odds and shrinking. Too many things are pointing Houston’s way for Texas to be a value pick, however, including a 3-1 vs 0-3 pitching match-up of Cristian Javier vs visiting Kolby Allard. Tuesday was the Lone Stars’ 4th road win of the year in 15 tries.

Pick: Astros 

Update 9/1: Sorry for taking an extra day or 2 to get back, ‘Boppers, but it was time to wait-out the cancellation bug in earnest. Major League Baseball has successfully held 100% of its scheduled ballgames on 2 of the last 3 days, making Daily Double fairly confident (though with fingers-crossed) that all of our hardball predictions will be supplied with outcomes from Labor Day week onward.

Gamblers’ Confidence in Brew Crew Warranted?

Milwaukee is not having a season to write home about, at least not so far. The Brewers needed a huge day from CF Ben Gamel just to squeak-out a series win over the lowly Pirates on Monday, and the 2-1 advantage doesn’t begin to make up for the club blowing a chance to win a series with Cincinnati and losing 3 straight to Pittsburgh before that. Bettors seem to think that the Brew Crew will benefit from escaping division rivalries, shrinking Milwaukee’s line-to-win to (-180) in a series opener vs visiting Detroit on Tuesday. But the Tigers have won 5 ballgames in a row including a sweep of the Minnesota Twins. Without an obvious mismatch in the pitching mound to speak of, it’s hard to see Motor City laying down given the team’s 1st chance to make noise in quite a while.

Pick: Detroit Run Line (+1.5) 

Correlation Consternation in Bums vs Snakes Betting

Under outcomes and underdog wins are correlated often in sports gambling, for instance in FBS football, or the English FA Cup. In the world of baseball, however, it seems that perceived correlation depends on circumstances. The L.A. Dodgers are massive (-260) favorites over the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks in Tuesday’s nightcap, but is Las Vegas skeptical of a blow-out Dodger win, given that the O/U total has shrunk from around 10 runs to an even (9)? It may simply be that Arizona’s offense was putrid over the weekend against San Francisco, and Julio Urias and the Bums are expected to close-out Arizona defensively without needing gratuitous at-bats for the stars in the host batting order.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line (-1.5) 

************************************

8/27

Now That’s a Low Run Total

Bookmakers and gamblers alike have appeared tentative throughout the 1st half of a shortened MLB season, uncertain how various changes, postponements, and roster moves will affect outcomes. O/U lines have hovered between 8 and 10 runs religiously, at least without thin Rocky Mountain air as a factor. But that trend could be going bye-bye if Sin City’s Over/Under run total on St. Louis vs Pittsburgh this Thursday is any indication. Las Vegas is so impressed by new Cardinals hurler Kwang Hyun Kim that the total has opened at (7) runs and stayed there, even following Tyler O’ Neill and the Redbirds’ lively bats at the end of Wednesday’s win over Kansas City. I’m not fond of predicting 2-1 games between such disparate clubs, however. Pittsburgh is taking a nosedive and could easily lose by a whopping score.

Pick: Over 

Motown Boys a Popular Underdog vs Visiting Twins

Early action closed the gap on a substantial favorite vs underdog line in Detroit, as the Tigers are now just a (+142) wager to beat the Minnesota Twins. Detroit has posted perfectly nice wins at Comerica Park this season, including last night’s surprise rubber-match victory over the Chicago Cubs. But it’s hard to fathom why bettors are taking a chance on Tiger starter Matthew Boyd, who hasn’t sniffed a victory in an 0-4 start, against the solid Randy Dobnak. Cleveland was able to keep Minnesota bats quiet for 3 games this week, but Detroit used a veritable stable of no-names to out-last the Cubs, and could finally run out of pitching ideas vs a crew of sluggers.

Pick: Twins 

8/26

Let’s Put the Odds in a 5-Market Rotation

Daily Double is running about .800 in mid-August, improving a dismal opening record to 30-26-5 with a handful of 2-to-1 underdog bets. Hold the other shoe, and don’t let it drop! Like a good hardball manager, our predictions must now guard against pitfalls and losses of momentum while staying aggressive enough to maintain the groove.

It’s never easy to keep that balance, especially in 2020’s landscape. The New York Mets are getting a rare nod from gamblers after a lackluster 1st half, a 1-to-2 (-200) moneyline favorite to beat an upstart club with a yawn. Yet the Mets are 12-15 and in midst of 1 of the least-predictable “series” ever recorded. New York began playing ball with the Miami Marlins a week-ago Monday, postponed a follow-up meeting with the rival Yankees, then resumed to play even more ballgames against the Fish. The Mets are leading the accidental “7-game series” 3-2, though win or lose Wednesday, here’s a hunch that “Game 7” will be necessary. ‘Cappers have overlooked that the Over/Under total (7.5) for a 6th-consecutive meeting belies the recent stat lines of the starting hurlers. Rick Porcello and visiting Dan Castano are 1-5 in 6 combined starts. MLB bullpens appear as busy as ever despite less risk of fatigue among aces, and so it’s rarely a bad idea to take the high or low side when a total shrinks to 7 or shoots to 11+ respectively.

Pick: Over 

Dodgers Expected to Prevail in Marquee Mound Match-Up

The total is O/U (9) for a name-brand pitching contest in San Francisco, so maybe hurlers aren’t getting as overrated as all that. The Dodgers and host Giants are collectively averaging 5+ runs per game but bookmakers know better than to let the number climb higher with Johnny Cueto and Julio Urias standing at a combined 4-0 this season. The close, anxious ballgame played in Tuesday night’s series opener is nearly anomalous because the Dodgers (-220) are 22-8 and playing well enough to blow many teams out. Still, skipper Dave Roberts has shown that he doesn’t mind solid 1 and 2-run wins as opposed to fireworks at the end of ballgames, making the Bums’ Run Line (-1.5) as taboo as the favorite’s Wednesday night ML is chintzy.

Pick: Under 

8/25

Total Plummets for Angels at Astros

Houston just snapped a 3-game skid by beating the L.A. Angels 11-4 at home. The run total opened at a reasonable Over/Under (10) as the Astros shuffled their pitching order and the Halos plan to start a struggling Julio Teheran. But thanks to belief in Houston’s pitching staff as a whole and the belief that Teheran is about to snap out of it, bettors have been veritably “panic buying” on the Under, driving the total down to (8) runs at some sportsbooks. Hell, maybe the series follow-up on Tuesday will feature 6 runs. Or 4 runs. Or 1 run. But the crazy betting action makes the % pick obvious for 2 slugging teams that aren’t really trying to win 1-0.

Pick: Over 

ChiSox Popular Minus-ML Pick vs Sinking Pirates

Pop Fischer from The Natural may hate losing to the Pittsburgh Pirates, but the Chicago White Sox are happy to be meeting the NL Central’s caboose for a pair of games in the Windy City. The ChiSox almost swept a rivalry series with the Chicago Cubs and have become 1 of the most popular bets on Tuesday night’s MLB betting board at (-240). Is the Chicago Run Line worth it at (-120)? White Sox starter Lucas Giolito shut out the Detroit Tigers for 7 innings last time he was on the mound, but the best reason to predict a substantial Pittsburgh loss is that the Steel City club just isn’t feeling it this year, and has essentially already played its way out of the pennant race.

Pick: White Sox Run Line (-1.5) 

8/24

Why are the Fish a Popular Catch?

The Miami Marlins have fit the prototype of what we thought a successful underdog team might look like in 2020, making up for a dicey pitching staff with timely batting and solid fielding, and building a 20-game record from which a 40-game sprint to a playoff berth is not out of the question. Late August has proven more challenging, though, and the Marlins missed out on an opportunity to go ahead 3-1 in a 5-game stint at Nationals Park. Monday’s visiting starter Pablo Lopez has hurled so well for Miami that gamblers have driven a near-1.5-to-1 line to just (+107) on the underdogs (and perhaps soon-to-be favorites). The Under (9.5) is probably a better wager considering that only 1 game out of the 4 in the series so far has gone over the current run total.

Pick: Under 

D-Backs Look to Snap Out of Slump in AZ

Perhaps no batting lineup in baseball will be as maligned as Arizona’s, at least if the trend of the past few days continues for very long. The Snakes scored 10 runs in a blow-out win over Oakland about a week ago – since then Arizona has scored a grand total of 6 runs in 5 straight losses. Speculators expect that the Diamondbacks will snap out of it this Monday night against visiting Colorado (+141) but the Rockies’ Run Line is tempting at (-135) payoff odds.  Ryan Castellani’s chances of out-pitching and out-lasting host hurler Merrill Kelly are not so slim as to prompt substantial underdog odds in a contest between 2 losing teams. Yes, Colorado is working on a losing streak longer than Arizona’s, but the Rox were swept by the Astros and Dodgers, not exactly the weak sisters of MLB.

Pick: Rockies Run Line (+1.5) 

8/23

ChiSox Can Usher New Era in Windy City Rivalry

Rivalry games are always important, but until recently, a hometown rivalry might have been the best – and only – reason to tout the Chicago White Sox over the Chicago Cubs. Welcome to 2020, and a White Sox team that’s not only threatening for the AL Central lead, but is potentially about to vanquish the Cubbies at Wrigley Field in 3 straight ballgames. ChiSox 1B José Abreu is having 1 of the best MLB series-performances in recent memory with 7 hits and a staggering 5 home runs in just 9 at-bats. Sin City seems to think starter Yu Darvish and an angry National League club will dismiss the White Sox (+155) sweep attempt on Sunday. Don’t be so sure.

Pick: White Sox Run Line (+1.5) 

Phils Considered Solid Underdog Despite Losing Streak

What began as a brief setback is getting to be a crisis for the Philadelphia Phillies. 5 losses in a row in 2020 is worse than a 12-game losing streak in a normal MLB season, and the fact that 3 of the losses came by 1 run is no salve for the wound. Philly led 4-0 as of the 7th-inning stretch at Truist Park on Saturday night but lost 6-5 to an Atlanta comeback. The underdog line on the Phillies is stable at (+107) and maybe even shrinking toward minus-odds range as bettors debate whether host P Josh Tomlin or visiting Zach Eflin will have the superior outing, but neither man is a stamina phenom, meaning that plate discipline and bullpen performance could become the biggest factors in Sunday night’s closer.

Pick: Braves 

8/22

Minnesota Bats Prompt Rising O/U in AL Central

Outside of Atlanta and Philadelphia swapping slight-favorite/slight-underdog odds for the 2nd straight day, there hasn’t been a lot of noteworthy moneyline movement for Saturday’s ballgames. There are a handful of moving O/U lines, though, including a rising (9.5) total for the 2nd of 3 Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins games in the Show-Me State. Marquee names like Nelson Cruz produced hits for the Twins in the opener, but KC’s rank-and-file managed to out-play the division leaders in a 7-2 triumph. Gamblers don’t think Kansas City starter Brady Singer will stand up to the Twins’ bats, but Singer has been on-pitch vs Minnesota, and the 2 teams have already played 6 low-scoring defensive battles on the season.

Pick: Under 

Bookies, Gamblers Weigh Home Field Heavily in San Diego

For some reason, the San Diego Padres are a (-106) wager to beat the visiting Houston Astros on Friday night, even though the ‘Stros nearly came back to win a 1-run opener in which Manny Machado’s pair of RBI singles made the difference for the Pads. Space City’s Brandon Bielak has a good shot to out-pitch San Diego starter Zach Davies, and the Astros have been the superior club over the past 1-2 weeks. Davies hasn’t shown handicappers a whole lot of consistency so far this season, as evidenced by a rising (9) run Over/Under total.

Pick: Astros 

8/21

Philly, Atlanta Swap Places on MLB Betting Board

Gamblers are convinced that Atlanta’s Max Fried and Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola will keep opposing bats quiet on Friday night, so much so that action on the Under has driven the O/U total down to just (8) runs. Speculators are just as convinced that Philadelphia will win the 1st of 3 ballgames at Truist Park, moving a substantial underdog’s line to (-112) on the visitors in a half-day’s time. Philly’s batters vs Atlanta’s bullpen could give the Phils a victory in the late-going, but Fried has been pitching too well to bet against right now.

Pick: Braves 5-innings bet 

Halos Garner Moneyline Rush for Oakland Meeting

Handicappers (if not bookmakers) are also less frightened of Mike Fiers these days, as a planned start from the Oakland A’s hurler has not stopped the visiting L.A. Angels’ line from shrinking to (-120) after opening in plus-range. One supposes there is an argument that L.A. simply needs this ballgame far worse than Oakland does, since at 8-18 the last-place Halos are on the precipice of a throw-away season. But the hosts are 11-3 at home and an extremely-solid Run Line bet for Friday night at (-155) payoff.

Pick: Athletics Run Line (+1.5) 

8/20

Red Sox Racking Up Bets for Baltimore

The Boston Red Sox won a ballgame yesterday as 3B Rafael Devers led a comeback effort over Philadelphia. Wednesday’s band-aid of a win allows us to assess the horrible month Boston has had, and the club’s slim hopes to contend after winning 7 of 25 outings. Gamblers are flocking to a (-146) Red Sox moneyline prior to Thursday’s series opener in Baltimore, almost trying to will the team to series wins over familiar opponents in the Orioles and Blue Jays. Only problem? The chances of that are slimmer than those of any of a dozen other MLB clubs putting together a hot streak, and Baltimore’s morale is superior to Toronto’s right now despite similar W/L records. To say that the Orioles enjoy superior morale to the Red Sox as of 8/20 would be an understatement.

Pick: Orioles Run Line (+1.5) 

New Law: No Bets on the Cards and Wainwright

The drastic line-movement toward Cincinnati (-147) and away from St. Louis (+127) for Thursday night’s NL Central series opener (opening moneylines matched at (-110)) may turn out to be 1 of the biggest collective gambling errors of the season. Yes, the Cardinals have had to deal with COVID-19 complications up to the beak, but the club just went 4-4 in closely-contested ballgames against talented Chicago teams. Catcher Yadi Molina is returning to give the Redbirds a batting boost, but St. Louis already makes up for a lack of elite power and gap-hitting with solid defense and plate  discipline, and is blessed by another start by Adam Wainwright…who’s been underrated by Sin City already this year. The Reds have dealt with recent postponements themselves and appear to be nothing special at 10-12. Cincy starter Sonny Gray has been up and down.

Pick: Cardinals 

8/19

Oh, Dolly I’m Hot Today…But July Was a Peach, Hun

Hurrah! Daily Double is not only perking above 52% on the fresh season, but shot firmly into the black on a Monday and Tuesday filled with accurate against-the-grain picks, including a neato (+225) 5-innings bet on Seattle. But as Hunter S. Thompson once counseled, there is no fool like one who takes winning for granted. Caution and cold showers must win the moment. July was filled with unpopular picks that didn’t work.

Much of July and August didn’t work for the Washington Nationals, who have spent the last 2 weeks settling back into every-day baseball, and who appear to finally be warming to the challenge. D.C. clipped the upstart Baltimore Orioles 2 games to 1 in a previous series and faces a crucial rubber match against the hosting Atlanta Braves on Wednesday evening. Is it time for another against-the-flow prediction, with Atlanta’s ML having fattened to (-126) as gamblers pick the underdog Nats? Atlanta’s fielders did not have a good outing on Tuesday and the club stranded 11 runners in an 8-5 loss, leading Sin City ‘cappers to conclude that the Braves are still the more-talented team. But the scheduled host hurler on Wednesday is 0-3 Kyle Wright, who was punished by the Miami Marlins just 5 days ago.

Pick: Nationals (+106) 

Mile High Meeting Bends Brains of O/U Bettors

With recent history as a betting angle, there would be every reason to pick the Over (12.5) in Wednesday’s ballgame between the Colorado Rockies and the visiting Houston Astros. Each club’s batters appear due after combining for 6 runs in 20 frames. Space City bats are still alive despite the lack of video-surveillance in 2020, and if anything, the Astros simply cannot control where the ball flies off the bat as well this season, not a big deal in Denver where the thin air does wonders for hard-hit baseballs. Colorado’s scheduled starter Ryan Castellani doesn’t have the best contact % for an otherwise solid rookie. However, visiting starter Framber Valdez has been terrific despite a 1-2 record, and Houston’s defense is obviously helping to hold the Astros in contention despite a disappointing team batting average.

Pick: Under 

8/18

Early Line Shift Reshapes Big Apple Narrative

The New York Yankees appeared to be in position to play well in a series with visiting division rival Tampa Bay. Or at least bookmakers thought so, anyway. The hosts have won 6 ballgames in a row, completing a 4-game sweep of hated Boston with a 6-3 Sunday win that featured 7 hits and 6 RBIs from the Pinstripe infield. Meanwhile, the Rays needed poor opposition fielding just to escape with a series win vs Toronto. Yet heavy gambling action on a former 1.3-to-1 underdog has re-cast P Blake Snell and the Rays as (-113) favorites for the opener at New York on Tuesday, with the Yankees a slight underdog at (-107) despite a start from hurler Masahiro Tanaka. The O/U line has shrunk to (8), giving wiseguys a convenient against-the-public wager in a year surprisingly full of quick pitching changes.

Pick: Over 

MLB Pitching Debut Marks ChiSox vs Tigers Follow-Up

There are essentially 4 nightcaps on the MLB slate this Tuesday – 2 meetings of contenders and 2 ballgames between flagging underdog team. You can’t predict that the Cinderella candidates in Kansas City will have a barn burner, as the Reds and the Royals appear to be headed for also-ran status in 2020. But the Chicago White Sox have shown promise, leading to a weird scenario in which the underdog Detroit Tigers have a more popular moneyline (+150) than Run Line (+1.5) (-130) for the 2nd of 4 games in Chi-Town. Detroit will be debuting new Major League starter Tarik Skubal, an exciting fastball specialist. But Chicago starter Dylan Cease has been excellent vs the Tigers and could pitch as many as 6-8 innings, meaning that the ballgame will probably be 1 of those outings in which a raw prospect looks outstanding on the mound, but his club loses anyway.

Pick: White Sox 

8/17

Gamblers Love Mets in Magic City

The Miami Marlins are in danger of slowing down. While a 9-6 opening record might get a ballclub more say in the 2020 pennant race than in any other season, the Fish have dropped consecutive series and badly need a victory in Monday’s opener with the visiting Mets. It’s getting to a point where handicappers will expect Miami to either win a 3-game or 4-game meeting and get things right again, or be swept by a more-powerful National League opponent and dismissed from the division lead. The gambling action for Monday makes it look like gamblers think New York is the team to lay on a beat-down, with the moneyline shrinking to (-145) on the favored Mets as the Marlins reshuffle a streaky stable  of hurlers. But scheduled New York starter Robert Gsellman was yanked 6 outs into his previous start against Washington. The O/U line of (9) seems a half-run low for a volatile outcome.

Pick: Marlins Run Line (+1.5) and/or Over 

Seattle Provides Rare ML Among Season’s Early Whoppers

This handicapper’s guess would’ve been that underdog MLB moneylines would get fat quickly in August and September. After all, a 60-game season means every outing is magnified, and skippers must feel compelled to play as many strong lineups as they can without regard for fatigue. But the former hasn’t happened so far. Most underdogs have enjoyed at least 1.75-to-1 odds to win their ballgames. The trend could be shifting now that ‘cappers finally have decent sample-sizes of 2020 games to work with, and Seattle’s nearly 2.5-to-1 odds to win Monday night’s battle at Dodger Stadium illustrates a betting public assured of the Bums’ dominance over meek rivals. The Seattle Mariners are 6-17 and unlikely to win a 4-game series with the L.A. Dodgers, but Monday’s probable pitching match-up of Ross Stripling vs Justin Dunn actually looks favorable to the guests.

Pick: Mariners 5-innings bet (+225) 

8/16

MLB Speculators Don’t Learn From Saturday Debacle

It’s more than reasonable for Las Vegas to set an underdog’s moneyline on the St. Louis Cardinals in Sunday’s afternoon ballgame at Guaranteed Rate Field, even though the Redbirds surprised pundits by winning both games of Saturday’s doubleheader by wide margins. The pitching match-up is favorable to the Chicago White Sox. Probable host hurler Dallas Keuchel is due to get some help from ChiSox bats, and visiting starter Dakota Hudson hasn’t had it together before or after the COVID-19 break. However, gamblers driving the Cardinals ML to (+140) and preventing the O/U from rising above (9) total runs appear to be underestimating STL batters yet again. OFs Dexter Fowler and Tyler O’ Neill had excellent Saturdays at the plate, and we already know the club’s infielders are savvy and dangerous with runners on-base.

Pick: Cardinals and/or Over (9) 

Potential Sweep on the Line in Colorado Closer

Betting odds are late to arrive for Sunday Night Baseball between the Yankees and Red Sox (imagine that) so we’ll turn attention back to the Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies series. Texas clamped down on Colorado batters for 5 consecutive frames on Saturday, giving the offense time to produce a 6-4 win behind Choo Shin-soo’s terrific outing. That leaves the Rox without a victory in the series so far, and gives handicappers another chance to test the old “home team stops sweep to ward-off embarrassment” prediction tactic. Except timing doesn’t fit the storyline – Jon Gray starts for the hosts on Sunday afternoon after getting blasted by Arizona in his previous start.

Pick: Rangers 

8/15

Welcome Back. Redbirds…From All Except 2 Cities

The St. Louis Cardinals will finally play a ballgame – 2 of them in fact – if all goes well at “Not Exactly” Guaranteed Rate Field this afternoon. Sin City has not given the Redbirds any kinder of a welcome than the White Sox hope to in Chi-Town. Betting action on the hosts has driven an already-skeptical moneyline to (+158) on the Cards, with the prevailing sentiment that St. Louis probable pitcher Adam Wainwright won’t be used for more than 5 or 6 innings. But Wainwright has sparked STL action to plenty of minus moneylines by making an appearance on the mound, and the popular prediction overlooks that no ballgame will be considered just a “warmup” in 2020. Managers can’t afford that, especially with the 2nd half of a key doubleheader to gin-up momentum for. There’s no Run Line available at Bovada Sportsbook until morning, maybe because bookmakers think the Cardinals will make the opener interesting, and plan to have incongruous payoff odds to offer on the visitors (+1.5).

Pick: Cardinals or Cardinals Run Line if Longer Than (-130) on Opening 

Dodgers Look to Assert Dominance in SoCal

WagerBop’s theory that the Dodgers and Yankees are better gambles than the Astros in 2020 is working out so far, as Houston learns how to win without video-surveillance while those experienced in fair play hold an inside lane. Los Angeles is leading the NL West, working on a 3-game winning streak, and happy to be visiting the cross-town rival Angels at a crisis point in the 7-13 Halos’ slump. Game 1 of a 3-game stint went about as expected. Cody Bellinger of the Bums knocked it all over the park in a 7-4 guest victory. A probable start from Walker Buehler has the Dodgers’ moneyline swirling around (-160) and the O/U steady at (9) runs for Saturday night’s follow-up. Actually, the changing payoff odds tell us that gamblers are taking the Over often, but bookies are choosing to sit pat on the number with sturdy Andrew Heaney starting for the American League club. The hosts’ Run Line feels like a sucker’s market at (-115), but conversely the Dodgers (-1.5) is at 1-to-1 odds when it ought not to be. Heaney should be improved from a previous dismal outing but the bullpen might not contain Bellinger and associates.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line 

8/14

Rangers Aim to K-O Rockies in Denver

Daily Double is working on a hot streak, finally sniffing .500 on the season despite taking chances on a handful of 2-to-1 moneylines. In a similar fashion, the Texas Rangers are enjoying a rebound after a lousy audition, winning every game of consecutive 3-game series save for an upset loss to Seattle on Monday. OF Willie Calhoun’s late heroics gave Texas a rubber-match win over the Mariners last night, but gamblers expect volatility in the 1st outcome of a Rockies-Rangers meeting beginning on Friday night with a (-120) Rangers moneyline and a (12) run O/U. The trick to preventing extra-base hits from the Rockies at Coors Field is to not allow hits in general, and expected starter Lance Lynn fits that game plan for Texas, while Colorado’s starter Ryan Castellani has been handled with kid gloves (excuse the pun) and may not throw as many pitches or generate as many put-outs and Ks as the veteran despite a comparable skill level.

Pick: Rangers 

Athletics Inspire ‘Capper Confidence vs Gagging Giants

The Oakland As appear poised and confident despite losing a 3-game series to the Los Angeles Angels, standing tall at 13-6 and leading the AL West division. It couldn’t be a more different story for the San Francisco Giants, sagging at 8-12 and last place in the National League’s west coast grouping. A thread of WagerBop’s recent success has been picking “Over” on ballgames in which talented clubs are facing desperate underdogs, and a dropping Sin City total of (8) runs makes the Over seem promising for Friday night’s series opener between Oakland and San Fran despite Johnny Cueto meeting Frankie Montas on the mound. However, line movement as given the visitors an almost 1-to-2 favorite’s ML while blowing San Francisco’s line up to (+170). Considering that the Giants have endured a hellacious schedule without getting blown-out once since July, 1.7-to-1 is a little too fat for a cross-town rivalry opponent playing at home.

Pick: Under (8) and/or Giants Run Line (+1.5) (-105) 

8/13

Condition Red at Fenway Park

It’s high time to check in on the Boston Red Sox, who are in danger of disappointing a rabid fan base for yet another season. We’ve noticed that teams playing ballgames every day aren’t necessarily losing to clubs with loads of extra rest, meaning that Boston’s 18 appearances are absolutely no excuse for a ghastly 6-12 record. As we’ve been over at Daily Double already, that’s like beginning with a 17-34 mark in a normal pennant race. It’s not getting any better against visiting Tampa Bay, which has out-scored the Fenway Park hosts 17-7 in 2 games and could be threatening a statement-sweep in a 4-game series. The Rays have been priced unattractively at (-157) for Thursday’s meeting and aren’t holding up their end of the betting handle, mostly because expected starter Tyler Glasnow isn’t setting the mound on fire. But the Red Sox are asking P Kyle Hart to snap the team out of a slump in a move that may be labeled an experiment. Over (9.5) is a (+100) payoff at Bovada Sportsbook, a superior pick given a weird spot in the rotations and a desperate Boston lineup.

Pick: Over 

Pads Try To Notch Series Win in L.A.

The San Diego Padres are getting decent action as a (+122) moneyline underdog at Dodger Stadium on Thursday. Sturdy P Chris Paddack will start the ballgame for the Pads, but it will be interesting to see if the latest final score impacts Las Vegas action on tonight’s closer. San Diego won a by-committee pitcher’s duel 2-1 on Monday, then whipped the Dodgers again on Tuesday with a 5-run rally and another awesome slugging performance from Manny Machado. Wednesday night’s dreary 6-0 loss, in which the Padres stranded and squandered double-digit base runners, was another story. I’m old-fashioned enough to think live bats are a good sign for the 3rd-place Pads despite the disappointing lack of a sweep opportunity. But if I can find Bums at (-130) or (-135) following last night’s triumph, I’m in for 2 units.

Pick: Dodgers 

8/12

Surprising NL East Leaders Still Underdogs in Hogtown

Chronic postponements are making MLB standings look bizarre, making it hard to tell exactly how well the league’s underdogs are doing. This much is certain – the Miami Marlins are exceeding expectations at the 1/3 pole, or really the 1/5 pole as far as the Florida club is concerned. In the 11 games the Fish have been able to compete in, Miami has won 7 times, and the ballclub even acquitted itself fairly well in an 0-3 stretch since Friday. Betting action has Toronto (standing at a proud 6-8 mind you) a (-154) favorite in Wednesday’s follow-up against the visiting Marlins. The consensus seems to be that probable Miami pitcher Jordan Yamamoto will get socked out of the box by the Blue Jays, but if that’s the case, why an (8.5) run O/U line with a shrinking Under payoff?! I’m not recommending the Over because Yamamoto is certain to get blown away, but because if he does, the clearly-underrated guests are likely to fight back from the plate.

Pick: Over 

A Gambling Pick Solid Enough to Break Protocol

Is there an advantage for National League clubs which have played less games so far? The obvious answer is yes. Books have been written about keeping batters and pitchers healthy and at maximum efficiency over a 200-day marathon. Philadelphia has its share of COVID complications yet has also only played 12 games, with most postponements having been timed all together, giving the Philly pitching stable a nice long rest in late July. However the Baltimore Orioles (+155), who have played 15 times, beat the Phillies 10-9 with a tremendous road comeback on Tuesday and have momentum headed into Wednesday’s match-up vs Zach Eflin.

The outcome underscored weaknesses in Philadelphia’s bullpen and the fact that Philly owns only 1 shut-out so far despite a scenario in which hurlers could potentially out-pitch their ERAs. I’m not feeling leaky-defense favorites in a season where underdog managers are likely to try anything to stay above .500.

Oh, and apologies to readers who click here for the nightcap pick – we’ll get back to the west coast for Thursday but these eastern ballgames appear to offer best value at present. Pick: Orioles 

8/11

Porcello Tries to Perk Up Desperate Mets

We learned a tough lesson about COVID-19 complications yesterday – even as the pandemic has hampered clubs vying for the 2020 World Series, the long break has also helped batters prepare in-secret for pitches they knew would eventually come. Washington made mince-meat out of New York’s stable in a 4-game series opener, scoring 7 runs in the 5th inning of a 16-4 blow-out. The Mets are clearly not driving-in enough base-runners. Jeff McNeil and Wilson Ramos got on base a combined 5 times and scored a combined 1 run. More immediate is the fact that the club’s pace has it winding up at 14-20 after 34 ballgames, the type of start that a shortened season makes it nearly-impossible to recover from. Big Apple hosts will be playing urgent baseball for better or worse, but the bullpen did have a couple of decent innings on Monday, potentially boding well for a rebound if the bleeding stops. Rick Porcello’s stats aren’t amazing, but the Mets’ probable Tuesday starter smoked the Nats in his last outing. Washington (-150) has heavy artillery on the mound in the form of Max Scherzer. But the NY Run Line is strangely appealing for a 2nd day.

Pick: Mets Run Line (+1.5) 

Handicappers Hail Halos as Strong Tuesday Favorite

Tuesday night’s alternative L.A.-themed nightcap pits the swooning L.A. Angels vs the visiting AL West leaders from Oakland. Gamblers appear to love the Angels in game 2 of the series following a dramatic 10-9 victory in the opener. Mike Trout is fully engaged and could be nearing the height of his powers after a Roy Hobbs-like 4 hits, 4 runs, and 3 RBIs on 5 at-bats. Los Angeles manager Pop Fischer, er, Joe Maddon has P Dylan Bundy lined-up to start against Oakland’s Mike Fiers in a match-up that has bettors rushing to pitch the Halos at (-145). Bundy’s recent outings include a nice complete game W against Seattle, but gamblers could be forgetting that the 12-5 Athletics, not the 7-11 Mariners are facing the Angels tonight.

Pick: Athletics 

8/10

Gambling Public Sees Nats Beating Mets in Big Apple

Previews posted at 9 AM SoCal time aren’t exactly adherent to Daily Double’s promise of “nightly” updates, but sometimes waiting for 12-18 hours of gambling action can help to reveal MLB line-movement. 1 such shift is occurring in markets for New York Mets vs Washington Nationals on Monday evening, as gamblers have moved what was essentially a “pick’em” moneyline to (-120) for the visiting Nats. That’s a lot of optimism when you consider the circumstances. Washington is 4-7, has been ravaged by COVID-19 postponements, and still has players refusing to participate in the season. But the Mets have a losing record of their own and will be facing Patrick “Colossus: The Corbin Project” Corbin, whom New York lost to in his last trip to the mound.

Pick: Mets Run Line (+1.5) 

Dodgers Underrated in Las Vegas…Really?

All of the fundamentals appeared to be in place for the L.A. Dodgers to carry a skinny favorite’s moneyline into Monday night’s opener against the San Diego Padres. Sin City loves power-hitting teams with strong pitching, and Dustin May is expected to make another quality start for the Bums. The Dodgers have also beaten the Pads in 7 of the last 8 meetings. But gamblers are taking the underdog visitors (+135) like hotcakes with probable pitcher Garrett Richards, who came close to beating L.A. in his last appearance. The Padres also just won a rubber match vs Arizona thanks to 9 early runs and big outings at the plate from Wil Myers and Manny Muchado, giving the 9-7 club at least a semblance of momentum in the season’s 2nd quarter.

Pick: Dodgers 

8/9

NL Central Series Gets Serious on the Mound

To state the obvious, the Cincinnati Reds are having a better time with the current series than the last. Cincinnati dropped 3 out of 4 ballgames to the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field, losing the closing contest by an embarrassing 13-0 score. But the Reds have dominated a subsequent 3-game stint in Milwaukee so far, putting on a 6-run rally in the 2nd inning of Friday’s win and riding a 3-run shot from Eugenio Suárez, who is working through a bad start after rehabbing a shoulder injury, in game 2. Bookmakers gave the Brewers a slight edge on the moneyline for Sunday afternoon’s closer as Brandon Woodruff is scheduled to start for the Brew Crew, but gamblers like P Sonny Gray and Cincinnati at (-106) despite Milwaukee’s motivation to avoid a sweep. The pair of solid starting hurlers has taken the O/U total down to (7.5), but Under bets on such low numbers are somewhat dubious with pitchers getting micro-managed as if there were 600 games and not 60 games in the 2020 season.

Pick: Brewers

SNB Anticipation a Sign of the Times

99 times out of 100, when you hear or read the words “these changing times” or “these troubled times,” it refers to COVID-19 precautions and social distancing. But things are changing in the world of competitive sports too. A match-up of Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox might not have been highly-anticipated in 2019, but the improving ChiSox are a (+114) wager in their 1st Sunday Night Baseball appearance in 5 years after posting a winning record in the opening 15 ballgames. Fans who are excited to finally pick a strong White Sox team to win should look at the pitching match-up again, though – Shane Bieber vs Lucas Giolito should give the Indians a better than (-134) chance to prevail even though Giolito held the Indians scoreless in 6 innings in his last appearance vs Cleveland. 5-innings bets on Cleveland are an even better idea.

Pick: Indians 5-innings bet 

8/8

Picking a Side in Philly – Bookmakers or Wiseguys

The fundamentals seemed to be in place for Philadelphia to be a slight favorite over Atlanta on Saturday evening. Rain, not COVID, forced a postponement on Friday, giving the hosts an extra day to prepare for a 9-5 team while the Braves had to deal with cautious travel and lodging. The popular veteran Jake Arrieta is scheduled to start for the Phillies. But moneyline gamblers have swapped the sides in Las Vegas as Atlanta is now a (-115) favorite behind probable starter Kyle Wright, who pitched 3 scoreless innings against the Yankees in his last outing.

Pick: Braves and/or Under (10) 

Bettors Blank on Rockies in Seattle Follow-Up

A line that should be moving in the home team’s direction is Colorado’s (-108) odds to beat the Mariners for the 2nd time in 2 tries on Saturday night. Yes, we’ve blogged here that MLB outcomes are still volatile from day-to-day despite the shortened season. But if 1 NHL team was 10-3 as the Rockies are, and its opponent was 4-8 as the Mariners are, would that produce a favorite’s moneyline?

Pick: Rockies 

8/7

Aces Spade Hole for O/U Number in Tampa

When the PGA Tour began timing shots, players didn’t change their routines. They just walked to the ball faster. MLB managers have taken a similar approach to handling the shortened season of 2020, yanking pitchers off the mound and going deep into the bullpen despite a lessened danger of fatigue. Skippers may believe that if their clubs get to the postseason, each hurler’s lack of substantial innings-pitched could make aces of an entire stable. Bettors are counting on 2 aces to hold the run total down in Tampa on Friday evening, as expected starters Blake Snell and Masahiro Tanaka are helping the O/U total drop to (8) runs and potentially lower. The pair combined for less than 6 innings pitched in each’s latest start, however, and so the bets are really being placed on a pair of bullpens to hold-off talented batting lineups. If the ballgame does turn into a deadlocked pitcher’s duel, extra innings is another factor that could produce an Over outcome.

Pick: Over 

Bums Drawing Betting Action as Usual vs Gigantes

The L.A. Dodgers opened as a 1-to-2.4 favorite to defeat the visiting San Francisco Giants on Friday night, a paltry payoff indeed. But MLB gamblers went right ahead and took the Bums to win for an 8th time in 10 outings, driving L.A.’s line to (-260) payoff on a series-opening win. Host hurler Julio Urias is expected to out-pitch Jeff Samardzija of the visitors, but that’s not the only factor discouraging wagers on the 6-8 Giants. San Francisco (+220) was nearly swept by the Colorado Rockies in 4 games at Coors Field this week. As has been the case a few times this season, betting action is focused on the moneyline when the Over (9) is a solid pick at 1-to-1 odds. It would probably take the Giants at least 6 runs to beat the Dodgers, but if the ballgame goes as expected, L.A. will knock Samardzija and the San Fran bullpen around in several innings.

Pick: Over 

8/6

Bookie, Gambler Cat-Mouse Continues in AZ

Bookmakers may have expected gamblers to be all over the Over (9) for Chase Field on Thursday night, considering that Arizona won Wednesday’s ballgame with a hell of an offensive explosion. The Diamondbacks scored 9 runs in the 4th inning to double-up the Houston Astros 14-7, and the Snakes outfield combined for 6 hits and 7 RBIs. When Sin City offered-up a skimpy (-120) payoff on the Over, however, bettors took to picking Zac Gallen and visiting Brandon Bielak to hurl a low-scoring duel in the series closer on Thursday. Gallen doesn’t average many innings, though, and once again the O/U angle leads to an even better pick on the moneyline. Houston has consistently punished average pitching so far in 2020 and should score enough runs to win late in the rubber match.

Pick: Astros 

Fans Hypnotized by Low Scores in Chicago-Milwaukee Series

If 2 Major League ballclubs have 2 low-scoring games in a row, it’s not a trend. If they have 3 or 4 pitcher’s duels in a row, it still might not be a trend…even in a short season. Gamblers ought to be taking the Over (9) for Thursday night’s White Sox vs Brewers rubber match but the O/U payoff lines are stationary so far. Yes, each club’s defense deserves credit, but there’s no evidence to suggest Thursday’s starters are anything to write Milwaukee about. Gio Gonzales of the ChiSox walked 3 batters and gave up 5 hits before getting yanked in the 4th inning in a shaky August 1st win, and Josh “Suitcase” Lindblom of the Brew Crew has played in 9 stints for 8 teams on 2 continents since 2012.

Pick: Over 

8/5

Cubs Massively Popular Favs for KC Night Meeting

We’ve half-complained at Daily Double that too many MLB betting lines are sitting still, not allowing for enough useful angles to gauge whether the public is right or wrong. That could be changing if the odds on Kansas City vs Chicago Cubs are any indication. Gamblers flew to buy-in on Yu Darvish and Chicago’s formerly 1-to-1.7 Wednesday moneyline, turning the odds into a lopsided (-220) and (+190) after just hours of action, but the Cubs have a defensive ballclub which has only won once after giving up more than 5 runs. KC might do some surprising damage against the Cubbies’ bullpen although the teams are certainly headed in opposite directions nearing the 1/4 pole. Darvish is unlikely to go 8-9 innings.

Pick: Cubs 5-inning bet 

Halos Might Be Weaker Favorite Than Advertised

The Seattle Mariners and L.A. Angels are at least partially glad to be playing each other, badly needing victories lest a short pennant race get far out of grasp by September. The 4-7 Angels struck early with a 3-run rally in the 1st inning of the series opener at T-Mobile Park, with aging slugger Albert Pujols making a crucial difference in the 2-run victory as he has so often in his career in the Midwest and on the coast. Wednesday night could be the Mariners’ turn to retaliate, even with a (-160) moneyline on the visitors and Julio Teheran starting on the mound for the Halos. Seattle’s probable starter Marco Gonzales has beaten the Angels twice in a row and was very solid against Oakland in his final start of 2019.

Pick: Mariners Run Line (+1.5) 

8/4

ChiSox Efficient as Predicted…So Far

It’s time to check-in on the Chicago White Sox following an offseason of glowing predictions (and, of course, lots of waiting). Turns out that the ballclub is doing just fine in the American League, save for a calamitous opening series vs powerful Minnesota. The ChiSox weathered a postponement and 18 innings of above-average pitching from the Cleveland Indians to prevail in the series closer, then ran-up a 5-game winning streak with a sweep of Kansas City and a 6-4 opening win over host Milwaukee. Probable pitcher Lucas Giolito and the Windy City visitors are a (+100) slight underdog for Tuesday’s follow-up at Miller Park, but that might not last many hours after the Monday outcome.

Pick: White Sox

Lines Move Against Correlation for Oakland Opener

Not too many MLB betting lines have been moving well-prior to 1st pitches, but it’s clear from the small handle on Oakland vs Texas that gamblers think the A’s will win Tuesday night’s road opener over the Rangers and that starting hurler Jesus Luzardo will have a lot to do with it. Lone Stars opened as (+115) underdogs but quickly grew to (+135) as the O/U shrank from (8.5) to (8) total runs, making us wonder if anyone has heard of a correlated parlay before. If the contest is lower scoring that means better chances for the underdog, and besides, Lance Lynn on the mound for the visitors could make the guests a true 5-innings favorite no matter what happens in Sin City and London.

Pick: Rangers Run Line (+1.5) 

8/3

Left-Behind Moneyline Could be Key to Monday Money

Daily Double scored its maiden “double-play” of the 2020 season with the Twins and Under (9.5) at Target Field on Sunday, but the winning parlay only begins to make up for WagerBop’s dreadful losing streak to begin the shortened MLB season. Losing streaks happen to all gamblers, and the worst thing you can do is begin counter-intuitive picking against your own predictions. Suppose you’ve handicapped the National League to expect a lot of Under results, and finally start betting the Over in frustration just about when the Under-outcomes kick in? It makes things worse. DD’s confidence-method is to look at O/U lines and “correlated” O/U + moneyline relationships, and there is no better example than the New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies on Monday evening.

The Phillies are a drastic (+270) ML underdog, brought-upon by the COVID complications and New York’s impressive 7-1 record. But just because there are less ballgames this year doesn’t mean that baseball outcomes are necessarily less volatile. Philadelphia has tested its players thoroughly and found no new coronavirus cases; it’s other teams that have cause the postponements of Phillies games. Last but not least, ‘cappers are sticking pat with a 9-run O/U total on the contest. If the ballgame’s going to be that tight, should a talented-yet-idle club be a 3-to-1 underdog in any universe?

Pick: Phillies 

Gigantes a Popular Bet for Mile High City

The 20th-century pro golfer Chi Chi Rodriguez used to put his hat over the hole after sinking birdie putts. When it comes to the Colorado Rockies and probable starting hurler Chi Chi Gonzalez, MLB gamblers don’t want to count their birdies before they hat…or something. San Francisco is a popular underdog pick, shrinking to (+125) on the moneyline and (-130) on the Run Line of (+1.5). I’m taking the Rockies, because we’ve made 1 upset prediction today already. No, really, because expected Giants starter Johnny Cueto has failed and flailed in a number of recent outings without giving-up any garish earned-run totals that would draw gamblers’ attention.

Pick: Rockies 

8/2

Target Field Closer Well-Matched on Mound

5-innings gamblers who picked the Minnesota Twins had a low-stress Saturday afternoon. Minnesota starter Kenta Maeda gave up 0 runs and only 1 hit in the opening 5 frames while 1B Miguel Sanó scored twice with a pair of RBIs in his 1st pair of at-bats. But those lopsided innings were uncharacteristic of how the 4-game series with visiting Cleveland has gone. The clubs split the maiden 2 ballgames while allowing just 7 combined-total runs. Aaron Civale vs host hurler Homer Bailey promises a well-matched opening 5 innings in Sunday afternoon’s series closer. The Twins haven’t been as explosive from the plate as we’re used to, save for a couple of outings against the ChiSox, but Indian bats have been quiet too.

Pick: Twins and/or Under (9.5) 

Astros Still Enigmatic as Series in L.A. Winds Down

We now have a handful of Houston Astros ballgames from which to analyze how well the club is batting without the benefit of illegal video surveillance and communication. Houston looked just fine scoring 9 runs against the L.A. Angels on the road in a 3-game series opener on Friday, and batted well against Seattle while winning 3 out of 4. But the ‘Stros were meek from the plate against the Dodgers in a 2-game sweep by the Bums, making us think that without tricks, the Houston lineup could be another example of a strong, athletic group which batters poor pitching but wanes against strong pitching. The visitors struggled to spark rallies against Halo starter Griffin Canning and will face Shohei Ohtani in Sunday’s closer as a (-125) favorite vs L.A.’s plus-payoff moneyline of (+105).

Pick: Angels 

Lone “Sexy” Underdog Looks for Advantage on Mound 

As was the case for Friday, the odds for Saturday’s ballgames have appeared to “freeze” prior to 1st pitch, with no significant gambling trends toward favorites or underdogs. An exception is the Oakland A’s vs L.A. Angels follow-up at Ring Central Coliseum. Stricken by tragedy and a fatigued autumn in 2019, the Halos opened as a 1.5-to-1 underdog for Game 2 at Oakland before shrinking to (+135). Wiseguys are high on probable visiting pitcher Dylan Bundy, who may benefit from a change of scenery after toiling in Baltimore. Meanwhile, expected A’s starter Sean Manaea was dismissed early by Tampa in his most-recent appearance.

Pick: Over (9) 

Pick: Over (8.5) 

It sure seems like the front-running Houston Astros are at the minus-end of a lot of whopper moneyline markets this season, and sure enough, the ‘Stros are an eye-popping (-400) gamble to beat the woeful Seattle Mariners in the 3rd straight on Saturday night. Houston defeated Seattle for the 2nd outing in a row on Friday and the visitors to Minute Maid Park may have spent all of their remaining competitive juice in an extra-innings loss in the opener. Even the pervasive “bet against the sweep” philosophy isn’t drumming-up much action on the last-place M’s, but action is tight on an O/U total of just (8.5) runs.

Pick: Over 

Pick: Over 

Matched Odds for SNB as Giants Fight Back

There are 2 cardinal sins a team on the fringes of contention cannot make, which are A) losing to bad teams and B) getting swept by the good’uns. Pablo Sandoval and the San Francisco Giants are recently guilty of both as a Dog Days slump threatens to derail the club’s miraculous charge up the standings. Gigantes are officially showing signs of life once more as of this weekend, however, taking a 2-1 series lead on the visiting Philadelphia Phillies when Evan Longoria slugged a winning 2-run homer early on Saturday afternoon. San Francisco (-110) skipper Bruce Bochy faces an awkward moment in his pitching rotation for the Sunday Night Baseball closer with still-developing southpaw Conner Menez scheduled to start against Jake Arrieta of the Phillies.

Pick: Phillies to win 

Kurt Boyer( Big 3 Sports Staff Writer )

Kurt has authored close to 1000 stories covering football, soccer, basketball, baseball, ice hockey, prize-fighting and the Olympic Games. Kurt posted a 61% win rate on 200+ college and NFL gridiron picks last season. He muses about High School football on social media as The Gridiron Geek.

Twitter: @Shadowgbq
Email: kurt@wagerbop.com