WagerBop Daily Double: Updated MLB Vegas Lines and Recommended Bets

Welcome to WagerBop’s Daily Double! Our new hardball blog includes previews and picks for at least 2 Major League Baseball games every day, updated nightly with Las Vegas odds and expected starting hurlers.

8/7/21

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians

Sharks are swimming by a number of optimistic lines on favored clubs and big batting orders this Saturday, causing Las Vegas odds to contract as sportsbooks adjust moneylines to the cautious action. But the gambling public is sunny on at least 1 weekend MLB angle – the idea that Cleveland and Detroit’s lineups will combine for at least 10 runs in the 2nd of 3 games at Progressive Field. O/U totals opened at 9 runs even prior to the line rising to (9.5).

The bookends are certainly there for a high-side outcome. Cleveland is due for at least some kind of positive reversion from the plate, still averaging close to 5 runs per game at home despite a dull performance vs Toronto. Detroit, unlike a lot of blue-collar clubs that manage to hang around .500, has gotten by with rallies and power-hitting more often than Tiger hurlers have blanked rivals. However, the steady form of starters Eli Morgan and Tyler Alexander make it unlikely that anyone will be blown out of the box right away.

Neither pitcher’s strength appears to play into the match-up well. Morgan fanned 9 batters in his last outing, but also fires hittable balls that the visitors can capitalize on. Alexander is allowing contact and earning put-outs like a poor man’s Dennis Eckersley, but he’ll have to come out in the 5th inning or so even if playing well, thanks to the layered injury woes of Detroit’s stable. Tigers ballgames haven’t hit the O/U line in 8 days, but that’s mostly a fluke.

Pick: Over

Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers

Mirroring the MLB weekend’s early trends, sportsbook action has helped put the brakes on very confident favorites’ odds, including a pricey (-140) on the Bums’ (-1.5) Run Line in a follow-up to Friday’s tense contest at Dodger Stadium.

Maybe the Dodgers should be a hefty SU favorite for Saturday night, given that probable host-hurler Julio Urias loses games about as often as cold rain pierces SoCal in August. LAD has a 34-19 record at home in 2021, and the defending champs have aggressively added players to the mix. However, we can’t overlook that the Halos have been creeping into AL contention.

Bargain-hunters can choose the L.A. Angels’ (+1.5) ATS line for the fair price, the extra runs, the tightness of rivalry games, or the ultimately not-so-great form of the Dodgers when it comes to acing a 162-game schedule. The best reason to take the ‘dog is visiting starter Jaime Barria, who shut-out the Oakland Athletics for almost 7 innings to improve to 2-0 on 7/31.

Pick: Angels (+257) or (+1.5) (+120)

8/6/21

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

It’s surely coincidence, but MLB gamblers are very confident in Friday night’s underdogs…assuming the games begin after dusk. The ‘dogs from Friday’s earlier hardball contests, on the other hand, are expected to have a dog-day afternoon. Baltimore is getting almost no action on a (+130) moneyline that opened at 1/1, Detroit is considered a pale challenger in an evening game in Cleveland, and the lava-hot Cincinnati Reds are intimidating bettors away from Pittsburgh’s markets.

Still, the Run Line odds are holding firm at (-110) on the favored Reds and the visiting Pirates, begging the question of whether high-rollers think Cincinnati’s blazing streak is a product of emotion and close victories, not complete superiority over NL rivals.

Maybe the Reds aren’t superior in totality to a losing club like the Buccos, but they’ll have big advantages on Friday, with injuries hampering an already dead-in-the-water Pittsburgh bullpen and defense. Look for Cincy to mount a big rally in the middle innings and cover ATS for only the 20th time all season at home.

Pick: Reds Run Line (-1.5) 

Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics

While the MLB betting community is skeptical of Friday’s late-starting underdogs, speculators have also notably passed on high-risk favorites’ lines and (-1.5) spreads on a couple of California ballgames. The Dodgers are barely drawing pennies as a big favorite over the rival Angels, while the Oakland Athletics stand at (-120) on a (-1.5) Run Line despite what appears to be a mismatch in batting and pitching.

A’s faithful are worried about Oakland’s bats, and a much more important story has players and fans in a somber mood. Long-time broadcaster Ray Fosse has been diagnosed with cancer and is stepping away from the booth, just as the team fiddles with its roster in an anxious attempt to boost its chances in the AL pennant race.

Lone Stars starter Mike Foltynewicz is better than his 2-10 record and has put some decent outings on the ledger over the summer. Opposing probable pitcher Chris Bassitt was embarrassed by the Seattle Mariners just 2 starts ago. But the Rangers are dull and diminished on offense, failing to crack 6 runs in any ballgame since July 6th. Bassitt is good enough to eat struggling lineups as a late-night snack, and Oakland considers every win too precious not to scrap for insurance runs.

Pick: Athletics Run Line 

Please viddy this weekend’s MLB Power Rankings, courtesy of chief WagerBop baseball scout Jake Peter.

American League Power Rankings 

1 – Houston Astros

The Houston Astros’ late-summer surge has lifted them all the way to the top spot in the AL at 65-43. The team has won 7 of its last 10 and is now 34-20 at home. Alex Bregman is on the Injured List, but fellow star Jose Altuve has stepped up in a big way. On the season, Altuve has racked up 25 homers, 65 RBIs, and 48 walks while batting .279. He could very well find himself in the AL MVP race at the end of the season.

2 – Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa has ascended in the AL standings of late, and now sits in 2nd place in the American League at 64-44. Designated hitter Austin Meadows may be the most underrated hitter in the MLB this season. So far, he’s totaled 20 home runs and 76 RBIs while hitting .245. Raw batting averages are slightly diminished in importance in the power-baseball era, making those 76 RBIs stand out as the most-important number. Meadows may not be a household name (ever since The Honeymooners, anyway), but Austin could be a big reason why the Tampa Bay Rays become a dangerous team in the playoffs if the pennant race keeps trending as it has over the past few weeks. 

3 – Chicago White Sox

 

Chicago currently owns 3rd position in the AL, and despite some mid-season episodes, Tony LaRussa’s roster tinkering is finally paying dividends. The Chicago White Sox are an impressive 38-18 at home this season, the best home-standing record in the AL. Multiple White Sox position players have recently landed on the Injured List, but it doesn’t look like anything will slow down slugger José Abreu right now. Abreu is red hot, and he’s accumulated 18 home runs and 80 RBIs this year while batting .243. Now in his 8th year, it appears as though the offensive wizard will finally get to make noise in the playoffs.

4 – Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have faltered of late, but still own 4th place in the AL at 63-45. Despite the Beantown club’s recent losing streak, the starting lineup is still one of the most dangerous in the MLB. 

Boston’s pitchers haven’t made much noise this season, but the Red Sox batting order is downright terrifying. In particular, 5th-year 3rd baseman Rafael Devers has emerged as a bona-fide star. Devers has hit 27 HRs and driven in 82 runs while batting a stellar .285. 

5 – Oakland Athletics

It may be easy to forget about the Oakland Athletics from time to time, but they simply won’t go away. We’re nearing the final stretch of the regular season and Oakland still possesses the 5th spot in the AL with a 60-win record. The team’s pitching staff has been a mixed bag this year, but it seems as though Chris Bassitt has finally developed into the stable’s true ace. On the season, Bassitt is 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 139 strikeouts over the course of 22 starts. Look for Oakland to lean on him over the next few months.

National League Power Rankings 

1 – San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants were already in the midst of a banner year before they acquired Kris Bryant, but Gigantes are truly a title contender now. Bryant’s arrival was much-needed considering Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt are currently on the Injured List. During his time with the Cubs this season, Bryant totaled 18 homers and 51 RBIs while batting .267, and he’ll need to maintain that production in order to help San Francisco stay afloat without 2 of its biggest stars.

2 – Milwaukee Brewers

Don’t look now, but the Milwaukee Brewers have clawed their way all the way to 2nd place in the NL. Star outfielder Christian Yelich is on the Injured List, so Milwaukee will once again look to right fielder Avisail Garcia to be the club’s premier power hitter. 

That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Garcia has had a career year, racking up 18 homers and 66 RBIs while hitting .270. His production, whether it remains strong or tapers off, should prove to be a key indicator of the Brewers’ W/L success until Yelich returns. 

 

3 – Los Angeles Dodgers

The L.A. Dodgers currently stand in 3rd place in the National League, but the team’s new additions have catapulted the MLB’s defending champs to a betting favorite’s status in World Series odds for 2021. Most notably, a former Washington Nationals ace has joined L.A.’s already loaded pitching staff. Max Scherzer is still going strong in his 14th season—he has an 8-4 record, a 2.76 ERA, and 147 strikeouts through 19 starts. The Dodgers also added infielder Trea Turner, who should make an immediate impact. The shortstop had 18 homers and 49 RBIs while batting .322 for Washington this season.

4 – San Diego Padres

If this Padres squad was playing in any other year, they may very well have easily held down the top spot in the NL. But, with the emergence of so many loaded teams, San Diego finds itself in 4th with the postseason quickly approaching. Fernando Tatis Jr. has unfortunately hit the injured list, so San Diego will look to Manny Machado to step up his already incredible production. On the season, Machado has racked up 20 home runs, 75 RBIs, and 47 walks while batting .286. However, to keep the Padres at the top of their division race in the NL West, he may need to do just a little bit more.

5 – Cincinnati Reds

In one of the biggest surprises of the 2021 MLB season, the slow starting Cincinnati Reds have caught enough fire by the Ohio River to pass-up the New York Mets and reach 5th place in the National League. Cincinnati presents a very well-balanced attack on both offense and defense, but the Reds have still had some standouts. 

Reds starter Wade Miley has put forth another fantastic effort at 34 years old. This season, Miley is 8-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 88 strikeouts. 

8/5/21

Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays

Hold that runway! Daily Double has no intention of missing out on 2 nights of MLB action in the same week, but we’ve obviously left things late for this Thursday night’s games. Sorry to any readers who habitually check for new DD predictions in the AM and not again, but for the afternoon crowd, let’s turn an oversleeping lemon into a fade-the-public “lemonade” opportunity with Thursday’s lines and odds having shifted further over the extra hours.

Cleveland at Toronto has exhibited a curious dip in O/U line betting, with the run total falling to (9) even despite the hideous season record of Indians/Guardians/Lawsuitians starting hurler Triston McKenzie. Toronto is a heavy favorite on the ML, but sharks don’t seem to think the Blue Jays can do more than nick the necessary 1-2 runs off of McKenzie in the early innings.

That’s ridiculous, since the Blue Jays are averaging close to 6 runs per game at home, and will be fighting for a 2-2 deadlock with the wind blowing out of the park.

Pick: Over

Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros

Another rather silly Thursday betting trend has Minnesota’s (+1.5) Run Line drawing a lot of bets, bringing the Houston Astros’ odds ATS into tasty 1/1 land, or at least (-125). How do speculators think the Twins are going to grab an early lead with Griffin Jax on the mound, a hurler whose bright recent stats owe something to luck and plucky fielding while his ERA sits in the stratosphere? ‘Stros starter Framber Valdez has lost only twice this season. Minnesota is an out-of-contention club that’s miserable ATS and on the road.

Pick: Astros Run Line 

8/4/21

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals

WwwOOOOPS! WagerBop will do more than just apologize for yesterday’s lack of an update. We’ll even drop the “royal we” vernacular. Mea culpa. It’s my fault. Daily Double has had some fancy excuses and funny capers cling in conjunction with missing post-updates before, but this time, it’s as simple as the prediction blogger sleeping in and waking up distracted.

MLB bettors aren’t sleeping on mid-week angles, despite the dog-day circumstances in an Olympic year holding the sizes of Las Vegas handles back. Speculators decided late on Tuesday night that the even-up odds on a Wednesday follow-up between St. Louis and visiting Atlanta were mistaken, wagering that Drew Smyly and the Braves (-117) will defeat a Cardinal team that’s turned to J.A. Happ for a start on the mound. Smyly has gone 7-3 with nearly 3x as many Ks as walks in 2021, while Happ is essentially a journeyman at this point. Why bookmakers won’t give the Braves runs-in-hand against an aging hurler with a 6.50+ ERA is confusing, but you can see Happ having a few solid innings. Historically, though, the Redbirds tend to limit pitches and treat their new acquisitions carefully.

Sharks are betting the Under (9) but I like the high-side as much as the trendy ML wager on Atlanta, which can still be had a little more cheaply at a few sportsbooks. In any case, we owe readers a “daily triple” with at least a single 2-pick game.

Picks: Braves and Over 

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers

There was a rush of betting action on the L.A. Dodgers moneyline to beat Houston on Tuesday. But the popular pick didn’t work out so well, as the Astros prevailed 3-0.

Don’t expect Las Vegas to turn shy. Gamblers seem convinced that the Bums are solid favorites in the marquee interleague series, thanks in part to how the pitching rotations align on Wednesday night. Astros probable P Jake Odorizzi hasn’t been odorous, but he hasn’t shown the form that’s likely to hold off Cody Bellinger’s club. Max Scherzer’s start for the Dodgers is bound to inspire more confidence. L.A is a 1-to-2 favorite to win straight-up in a ballgame with a falling (8.5) O/U line.

The Houston Astros have been a terrific road team and a strong (if rare) underdog in 2021. Scherzer’s name brand and hostile snake-pit environment for the hated Astros may have led to too many impulse-buys on the Dodger ML and Run Line. After all, Houston just won the series opener. Scherzer has lost 4 games this season and his bullpen appears more banged-up than Houston’s. The All-Star hurler may have to squeak out a W or cheer for his team to rally late on Wednesday.

Pick: Astros Run Line (+1.5) (-102) 

8/3/21

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

Daily Double snapped out of a short-but-vicious icy streak with a 2-0 day on Monday, but the eye is drawn to a non-betting opportunity (at least for now) on the MLB ledger for Tuesday. New York’s (-350) moneyline was threatening to shrink like Zeno in front of Achilles’ shield thanks to a Gerrit Cole vs Alexander Wells match-up, but not only did the Yankees lose the series opener with Baltimore, Cole has tested positive for COVID-19 in yet another setback for what’s been a promising, yet strange and bothersome season for the All-Star. With that news, sportsbooks have “yanked” the Yankees-Orioles odds for Tuesday, but the prospect of a hastily-handicapped bullpen day for the Pinstripes could lead to advantages against Las Vegas in  multiple markets. It’s not a pick – yet! But stay tuned for the new odds and an eventual prediction in this space on Tuesday.

Pick: Scratched 

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

Are the Kansas City Royals’ bats so lifeless that it’s making the Chicago White Sox look hotter than they actually are? Chicago may have weathered episodes to remain in charge of the AL Central, but Tony LaRussa’s club has not posted a winning record over the past 2 weeks.

The ChiSox even lost a series to KC not very long ago, but since then, the division leaders have beaten Cleveland, while the Royals sank to another low vs Toronto. That’s got the White Sox in position as a 1/1 Run Line bet to earn convincing revenge in the rematch/opener at Guaranteed Rate Field on Tuesday. Meanwhile, faith in probable host-starter Dylan Cease has the O/U run total dropping to at least (9) from an opening (9.5).

Sin City was probably right to take a cold shower on each team’s trend of low-scoring games. Kansas City was improving on offense in series prior to the Toronto sweep, and we “cease” to understand why Dylan Cease is branded a shut-down threat when his ERA is similar to that of opposing P Kris Bubic. Chicago isn’t a solid RL pick until the team’s form improves, hopefully during the home stretch. But it could be a dissapointing night for both starting hurlers.

Pick: Over 

8/2/21

Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays

Seattle is our favorite underdog of the week (presumably, anyway) at (+144) to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday. Tampa has just concluded a heart-stopping series with the Boston Red Sox and may not be focused in on battling visiting starter Chris Flexen, who’s got 9 wins on the year.

Pick: Mariners 

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers

An NL Central match-up is the source of contradictory MLB line-movement for Monday night, as the Milwaukee Brewers’ moneyline shrinks below (-200) while rush low-side action on O/U markets pushes the U(9) payoff to (-120). If it’s going to be a low-scoring game with less chance of a blow-out, why would the Brewers be considered a sure thing straight-up?

Perhaps it’s because a lack of reliable metrics on Pittsburgh starter Bryse Wilson has gamblers skeptical of the Buccos’ chances to upset Milwaukee, or to play an inspired-enough ballgame to contend at all, for that matter…always an angle when a club is mired in last place. Still, the O/U action is curious as the Brewers piled-on runs in a recent sweep of the Pirates, and Wilson only lasted 3 innings in his last appearance despite improving on a poor June outing vs St. Louis.

Brewers-to-cover (1.5) and a high-side O/U outcome are correlated strongly for Monday’s series opener, but that doesn’t mean a combination bet is the correct play. A high-scoring game can be envisaged but Milwaukee ATS is a higher-% pick. Probable P Eric Lauer doesn’t have to outplay Wilson for the Brew Crew to prevail by 2+ runs – he just has to continue to exhibit far more stamina. Pittsburgh is 21-31 ATS on the road, and Milwaukee has simply owned the rivalry as of late.

Pick: Brewers Run Line (-1.5) (-110) 

8/1/21

L.A. Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

It would be understandable if MLB speculators shy away from favorites’ Run Line bets in August. While many of the raw gambling stats favor the favorites at (-1.5) runs, a torrent of unexpected losses and shock-headlines has created a feeling that the next setback (or surprise upset) is always looming for a contender.

Never mind for now. If Sunday is any indication, baseball bettors are still happy to go in for a 1/1 payoff on a 2+ run victory when the circumstances are right. The L.A. Dodgers can be found at (-132) on the RL for a follow-up with the Arizona Diamondbacks, who defied their record by winning Saturday’s series opener. With the Snakes behaving like a decent ballclub for a change, is the price on 2020’s World Series champs ATS a little too chintzy?

Maybe it would be, if the pitching match-up wasn’t a nightmare for the underdogs. Arizona starter Caleb Smith was embarrassed by the Dodgers in July and doesn’t appear to be tuned-up enough for a revenge W. Opposing Julio Urias has been hurling Ks and lasting late, taking some guesswork away.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line (-1.5) 

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

We can criticize Sunday Night Baseball for focusing on coastal MLB action (and St. Louis) too often, but if the Tampa Bay vs Boston series was scheduled far in advance of the 2021 season, ESPN’s much-maligned TV crew has lucked out. The Rays and Red Sox are in a battle for American League supremacy in addition to the AL East lead, even though a series winner has already clinched in a meeting that’s been less suspenseful than advertised.

Tampa out-batted Boston with runners in scoring position on Friday, then won Saturday’s follow-up game 9-5 behind a terrific outing at the plate from unheralded Francisco Mejía. Probable pitcher Shane McClanahan and the Rays are a (-136) SNB favorite for a closer with an (8.5) Las Vegas total.

Even a .600 W/L record won’t drive up a stake if the bookie’s always taking 30%. It’s probably true that McClanahan has a small edge on opposing starter Nick Pivetta despite the latter’s 8 wins in 2021. But for an angle on a line much closer to a 1/1 payoff, look at Pivetta’s low K numbers and McLanahan’s big number of jams-escaped in July. Boston will start knocking those stranded runners in again sometime soon. 9 innings of live at-bats from outstanding lineups is poised to produce a high-side O/U outcome.

Pick: Over 

7/31/21

Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers

Saturday’s MLB slate is full of perceived live, barking ‘dogs, including the L.A. Angels, San Francisco Giants, Tampa Bay Rays, and the Detroit Tigers, who will meet the Baltimore Orioles for the 3rd of 4 games at Comerica Park. Matt Manning will face John Means on the mound with the series tied 1-1, as the Tigers level off to (-110) after opening wagers as a slight underdog.

Fans will be tempted to gamble on Tampa, especially since the weekend’s Astros at Rays action is highly anticipated following an explosive series-opener from the American League contenders. However, lines on Saturday’s marquee contest are finely tuned. There’s room to slay the bookie in Motor City.

Means of the O-Birds is technically having a much better season than Manning, but he’s also giving up solid contact on too many at-bats, striking out a minimal number of hitters, and potentially playing-into Detroit’s hands against a very plate-disciplined club at home. Incidentally, the Tigers have won 29 ballgames in Detroit this season, close to the total number of Ws for Baltimore.

Pick: Tigers

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

Have the Colorado Rockies begun to bat baseballs on the road? The Rox scored 17 runs in the final 2 games of a series at Angel Stadium, then responded to a 3-0 loss in San Diego by lighting-up the Padres 7-3 on Friday, led by stout infielder Ryan McMahon’s maiden career Grand Slam. Bookmakers have stubbornly slapped a (7) run O/U line on Saturday night’s 3rd of 4 contests, with the Rockies getting predictable ‘dog action at (+176).

The O/U run total might seem thin given that the starting pitchers, Yu Darvish and German Marquez, have lost 13 combined games on the season. But there’s a feeling that both hurlers are due for positive reversion, even following Darvish’s bad outing against Miami in his last appearance. San Diego’s bullpen is riddled with injuries, but Darvish isn’t known to overtax his relievers.

There’s no reason to assume that Thursday’s shut-out loss is any less indicative of where the Rockies are. Colorado still averages less than 7 hits per game away from Coors Field, and is 22 games below .500 as an underdog. 22 covers and 29 losses ATS on the road is probably a better Sin City stat line than the club deserves given its form in 2021, but Saturday’s not likely to boost it.

Pick: Padres Run Line (-1.5) (+110)

7/30/21

Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets

It’s hard to say that the New York Mets are playing better baseball than the Cincinnati Reds as August approaches. The Mets are simply in a better position vis-a-vis the NL pennant race, poised atop the National League East while the Reds attempt to make up ground against MLB-pacing Milwaukee in the NL Central.

New York (-122) is only a slight favorite for Friday’s series opener with Cincinnati at Citi Field, with intrigue over the pitching battle keeping the O/U total firm at (8.5) runs. Carlos Carrasco will finally make his debut for the Mets after injuring his hamstring in 2020. Incidentally, Carrasco has been pretty good vs the Reds.

Carrasco is only likely to pitch 4-5 innings, and so a starting-hurler advantage for the Mets over struggling Sonny Gray of the Reds might not ordinarily make a solid betting angle on a minus-ML. But the Metropolitans are excited to have a legitimate 5-man rotation going again, while the visitors are coming off long, grueling rivalry series with the Cubs and Cardinals. Friday would be a bad time for a Reds letdown against a ginned-up team.

Pick: Mets 

Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals

MLB gamblers seem to like the Cardinals (+107) on the moneyline for Friday’s opener with visiting Minnesota. That’s a total mystery, since the Twins just scored 14 runs in a ballgame and will pound Cardinal starter Wade LeBlanc unless the ball bounces funny.

Jose Berrios of the Twins might not fare much better hurling for a club that’s lost 30 away games, but all told, the O(8.5) should be a more popular pick at (+100) payoff odds.

Pick: Over 

7/29/21

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

Bookmakers can’t agree on an O/U line for Thursday afternoon’s follow-up contest between Tampa Bay and the visiting New York Yankees, with at least 1 major sportsbook offering similar payoff odds at O/U (8) that everyone else has slapped on (7.5) total runs. But for some reason, gamblers are passing on the Yankees even as the club’s moneyline slides to (-138), still skeptical of Thursday’s starter Garrit Cole with umpires looking closely at his hands, arms, glove, and waist. The truth is, however, that Cole’s form has stabilized as the shock of MLB’s enhanced surveillance wears off. Rays probable pitcher Luis Patino, with a fat ERA and only 1 win on the season, has no excuse.

Pick: Yankees 

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

What would make the Milwaukee Brewers a popular 1/1 Run Line favorite for Thursday’s series closer in Pittsburgh? Certainly not the Brew Crew’s organizational focus on winning tight ballgames. Thursday’s host-starter Chad Kuhl has been determined and effective in several recent starts despite playing on a cellar club. Could the NL Central rivals’ wildly disparate seasons be the only angle behind prohibitive odds on Milwaukee to win?

Certainly the Brewers’ pair of lopsided wins on the last 2 days have something to do with bettors’ confidence. Milwaukee’s scoring stats in the last few meetings have been dreadful for the Pirates, even in relief of 2021’s low waterline. Big picture, the motivation of a pennant contender against a caboose is probably good enough for a 1-2 run advantage per outing even when lineups might happen to be comparable for a day.

But pitching is often the last asset to go on a bad baseball team, as an individual can spark a pedestrian roster to focus in a home game with dramatic strike-outs. Milwaukee has been striking out too much on the road, which could play into Kuhl’s hands. Freddy Peralta’s start for the Brewers makes the Pirates a dodgy underdog, and even shaky ATS due to the sluggers like Avisail Garcia facing the Bucco bullpen. But the low-side of (8) is a fattening pick at (-105) and a subtle fade-the-public gambit that could pay off easily on a likely pitcher’s duel.

Pick: Under 

7/28/21

Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres

WagerBop’s fine summer MLB record soured a little bit prior to Tuesday’s total whiff, but as always, the solution for a mishap at the sportsbook is to look for the upside and bet confidently. Perhaps the 24+ hour break in predictions could serve to reset our logic as it pertains to forecasting Wednesday’s scores.

Hitting “reset” is an especially good idea when a team is a really good story. San Diego is a terrific baseball story in 2021, but the Padres are vulnerable to a surprise blow-out loss just like any club in the major leagues, and how the betting public chooses to accept or reject the mythology of bright headlines is a key angle from which to attack the odds.

For instance, Pads supporters aren’t helping to prop-up San Diego’s moneyline for Wednesday night, fattening to (-127) with the action. Give the high-rollers credit – they’re noticing that Oakland’s probable pitcher Sean Manaea is lasting longer on the mound than opposing Blake Snell, and the Padres are ailing in the bullpen just as the unit may be especially needed if Snell gets into a mid-game jam.

But the As aren’t in A+ form, having dropped 4 ballgames in a row. That’s a funny kind of “hot” underdog. San Diego’s plate discipline has been out of sight at Petco Park, meaning that the visitors are just as likely to get into jams on Wednesday…and gamblers should capitalize on the less pricey line.

Pick: Padres

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels

As we’ve discussed in past previews, MLB gamblers who usually read too much into unique angles have weirdly blanked on Colorado’s mad disparity of home and away form in ’21. It’s not just that the Rockies are a more dangerous club at Coors Field, but that the lineup’s batting prowess and confidence level vary so severely from ballpark to ballpark that the overall tone of the games changes as the Rox travel and return.

To be fair, the Rockies aren’t winning baseball series, period, and speculators should be cautious about reading too much into Tuesday’s 12-3 victory for Colorado at Angel Stadium. Action has favored the Over (9.5) while the Rockies hold fast as a minus-odds Run Line underdog (yes, a Run Line “underdog” market can be pricey due to that good old “+1.5”) despite a probable start from Chi Chi Gonzalez, who’s almost a sure bet to give up a number of runs with an ugly ERA of 6.06.

Can the Halos capitalize and win the series 2-1? There aren’t many desperate clubs at .500 in the National League, but an AL full of runaway division-leaders creates urgency for in-the-pack playoff hopefuls to overcome listless summers. If psychology isn’t a good reason to pick the Angels and (-1.5), try Colorado’s 19-28 record ATS on the road, or the fact that L.A.’s pitching stable is almost 100% healthy and unlikely to give up 10+ runs to any sub-3.00 average offenses again any time soon.

Pick: Angels (-1.5) (-115) 

Note: Due to a publisher’s error, our Daily Double predictions were left unposted on Tuesday. Please check-in Wednesday for regularly-scheduled broadcasting. 

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

Olympic baseball will feature a collection of Nippon Professional Baseball aces, KBO journeymen, American minor-league pros, and recent college grads that only true hardball aficionados will be familiar with ahead of time. (It will also be hosted on a diamond that’s < 400 feet to the center-field fence, making the high-side of O/U totals a running angle for Tokyo.) Back here in the United States, bookmakers are more than acquainted with the failures of probable pitchers Spencer Howard and Joe Ross of the Phillies and Nationals respectively, prompting Sin City to open wagers with a (10) run O/U total on Philadelphia’s series opener with Washington (+108) on Monday evening.

But the gambling public has bucked its usual tendency by dragging the ballgame’s O/U line down to single digits, standing at just (9.5) runs as of the wee hours. Ross remained steady and patient following a promising 7-frame outing vs Miami, only to get injured prior to the All-Star Break. Howard allowed 0 runs in his latest appearance on the mound. It’s easy to see why bettors were quickly drawn to U(10). But it’s not the best market available.

Nats hitters have let D.C. fans down while getting trounced by the lowly Orioles, a costly downturn that could ultimately cost the Washington Nationals a shot in the pennant race. But for now, neither club is above .500, and each still has a chance in an NL East with exactly 1 winning team in July. Ross has exhibited so much more stamina than Howard that the Phillies’ bullpen injuries could show up in the contest’s tactics more than the Nationals’ injury woes loom large, making the visitors a fine ML pick at plus-odds.

Pick: Nationals 

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners

Pick the Under (9) in this Monday ballgame instead. Probable starter Luis Garcia of the Astros appears to be as consistent as the Texas sun headed into the dog days, while Seattle call-up starter Darren McCaughan can get by on surprise pitches for a game or 2 before scouting and elite batters welcome him to the big leagues AL-style. Houston’s pitching and defense is the quiet reason why ‘Stros against-the-spread bets are paying off more consistently as of late…along with low-side O/U bets on what’s often a go-to club for high scores.

Pick: Under 

Scroll onward for WagerBop scout Jake Peter’s MLB rankings! (Note: Delayed posting this week, stats from the weekend not included in Jake’s otherwise kingly analysis.)

American League

1 – Boston Red Sox

The race for the AL’s top spot is as close as ever, but the Red Sox have not relinquished their hold on it yet. Boston leads the league with a 59-38 record, and they’re on a 3-game winning streak to boot. The team’s 4.08 average ERA is hardly impressive, but every single starter currently has a winning record. Boston’s pitchers also rank third in the AL in strikeouts and first in home runs allowed.

2 – Chicago White Sox

The White Sox continued their dominant season this week, and at 58-38 they possess the second spot in the AL. Chicago has won 7 of its last 10 games. As expected, returning stars José Abreu and Tim Anderson have produced offensively, but it’s been designated hitter Yermin Mercedes who has stolen the show. In just his second MLB season Mercedes has racked up 7 homers and 37 RBIs while batting .271. Look for him to help power the White Sox offense down the stretch of the regular season.

3 – Houston Astros

The Astros have faltered recently, but they’re still in the thick of things in the AL at 58-39. Losses in 6 of their last 10 has bumped Houston back to third in the league. Alex Bregman has hit the Injured List, but co-stars Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are having MVP seasons right now. They have combined for 39 homers and 111 RBIs so far this season, and both are batting above .270. The pair has also drawn nearly 100 walks between them.

4 – Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays sit in fourth in the AL at 58-39, but they are heating up and could seize the top spot any day now. Tampa has won 7 of its last 10 and is on a 3-game winning streak. Familiar faces like Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, and Randy Arozarena have led the way for Tampa offensively, but catcher Mike Zunino has also had a strangely effective 2021 campaign. Zunino is batting an abysmal .196, but he’s already totaled 19 home runs and 38 RBIs this season.

5 – Oakland Athletics

The Athletics hardly announce themselves and seem to rarely receive attention from the press, but they are still in the midst of yet another notable regular season. The team has won 7 of its last 10 and holds the fifth spot in the AL at 56-42. First baseman Matt Olsen very well may win the AL MVP award, but he’s starting to face some real competition from teammate Matt Chapman, who’s hit the ball quite well this season. Chapman has accumulated 11 home runs and 42 RBIs so far this year.

National League

1 – San Francisco Giants

The Giants are looking less like a Cinderella story and more like a legitimate contender by the day. San Francisco currently owns the top spot in the NL and the best record in the MLB at 61-35, and the team has won 7 of its last 10. Former MVP catcher Buster Posey has displayed incredible longevity this season. It’s his 12th year in the MLB, and he’s put up 13 home runs and 30 RBIs while batting .326. He even leads the team with a .418 on-base percentage.

2 – Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers still have one of the most intimidating rosters in recent MLB history, and it has lifted them to the second spot in the NL. L.A. has won just 5 of its last 10, but it still owns a 59-39 record. With Clayton Kershaw on the injured list, the rest of the Dodgers’ starters have stepped up. In particular, Julia Urias has emerged as a top-flight MLB pitcher. On the season, Urias is 12-3 with a 3.63 ERA and 127 strikeouts through 20 starts. The Dodgers’ 3.24 team ERA is the best in the NL.

3 – Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers didn’t make much noise this week, but they’re still clinging to the third spot in the NL at 56-41. Milwaukee is 29-18 on the road this season. The team hasn’t had much of a true ace this season, but starter Brandon Woodruff has put up stellar numbers for them so far. This season, Woodruff is 7-4 with a 2.04 ERA and 137 strikeouts through 19 starts. The Brewers’ pitching staff currently has the most strikeouts in the NL with 985.

4 – San Diego Padres

The Padres may not have the most balanced roster, but their stars have managed to do enough to seize fourth place in the NL. San Diego has a 57-42 record and has won 6 of its last 10 games. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado have provided the most offensive pop for the Padres this season, but the team would not be experiencing such success without the efforts of guys like Wil Myers. The 9th-year right fielder is in the midst of another impressive campaign that has seen him put up 12 homers and 44 RBIs while batting .262.

5 – New York Mets

The Mets are facing fierce competition for the fifth spot in the NL, but they haven’t released their stranglehold on it yet. New York is 50-43 this season and possesses a 28-14 home record. The team has had 3 of its pitchers hit the Injured List, including Cy Young frontrunner Jacob deGrom, so the rest of its staff will have to step up their game in the meantime. That shouldn’t be too much to ask for Taijuan Walker, though. This season, Walker is 7-3 with a 2.99 ERA and has compiled 89 strikeouts in 17 starts.

7/25/21

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have been dodgy as a heavy favorite at times in the past 3 seasons, most notably when the ‘Stros hosted Detroit as a (-500) favorite in 2019 and lost to a flurry of base hits. Houston’s strength as a host-favorite will be put to the test again when the Astros (-1.5) (-115) host the Texas Rangers on Sunday.

Could a series sweep be in the offing? Texas has been a miserable team on the road this season, and it hasn’t gotten any better over the last 2 days as Kyle Tucker and the Astros took an easy 2-0 lead in the meeting. Zack Greinke vs Dale Dunning promises more advantages for Houston on Sunday, even though Dunning’s ERA of 4.30 is somewhat sturdier than his 3-7 record.

Houston is 19 games above .500 as a favorite in 2021, meaning that the shock upsets probably stand out for their rarity as much as for any other reason. With a visiting team having packed it in for the year already, and a solid hurler on the mound, there’s no reason to not like the ‘Stros chances on a 1/1 Run Line.

Pick: Astros Run Line 

Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers

The Chicago White Sox are getting Brew-Crewed. Chicago’s exciting offense and strike-out pitching is well known to MLB fans who’ve watched the ChiSox grow into a mature ballclub in 2021. But the White Sox aren’t yet mature enough to shake off the stunning news from this week, and the team appears even more shorthanded mentally than what the lineup is left with physically.

Gamblers are no longer tentative after watching the AL Central leaders fall by a blow-out score on 2 consecutive days in Milwaukee. The Brewers are a trending (-137) moneyline pick in a SNB game with a cautious O/U line of (7) total runs, with a Woodruff vs Lynn showdown on the mound helping hold the number in place.

I’m feeling the (+100) price on O(7) runs. Maybe the Milwaukee Brewers are a better team when fireworks aren’t erupting all over the ballpark, but the White Sox are very unlikely to go 3 straight ballgames scoring 1 run at a time. Meanwhile, Lynn is due for negative reversion through no fault of his own, since the MLB landscape doesn’t allow even an ace starter to go 7-8 innings and give up 0 or 1 run in every appearance consecutively for a whole summer. If there’s a time when Lynn could be vulnerable against a modest offense, it’s now.

Pick: Over 

7/24/21

Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles

If the Chicago White Sox are strangely devoid of line-movement this weekend, that doesn’t mean MLB markets are free of gold rushes and abandoned picks. Odds on the Orioles vs Nationals ballgame at Camden Yards on Saturday have gone 100% bananas since opening for action, with few obvious angles or narratives on which the wild swing in Las Vegas lines can be directly attributed.

Washington, a (-205) pick to win after opening as a (-133) wager, has gone 3-4 since the July break. The Nats – despite competing in a relatively soft division – could be about to play their way out of the 2021 pennant race. In fact, the visitors didn’t come close to winning the series opener on Friday, as the O-Birds prevailed 6-1 with a great outing from the bullpen. So why are the Nationals a (-130) Run Line favorite for Saturday’s contest, apart from Baltimore resting in last place in the American League East?

Some high-rollers don’t trust Baltimore starter Spenser Watkins, a prodigal fresh face who has the regrettable task of opposing Max Scherzer in the follow-up. Scherzer has lost 4 times this season, though, and is somewhat familiar to the hosts’ lineup. A falling (9.5) O/U line doesn’t jive with pitching analysts expecting some kind of reality-check collapse from Watkins. Washington may be motivated as a team that could still make it to the playoffs, but bookmakers are/were still correct that a low final score could produce an upset, especially on a Run Line that opened at 1.4-to-1 on Baltimore.

Pick: Orioles Run Line (+1.5) (+110)

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Mets

Friday’s series opener at Citi Field was an emotional one, at least in the infield. Steven Matz took on his former team and settled into a solid performance after the 1st inning, but he didn’t get much help from his Toronto teammates as the Blue Jays fell 3-0. Saturday’s expected pitching duel between Hyun Jin Ryu and Taijuan Walker has the Jays trending at (-125) and the O/U steady at (8) total runs.

More than just the starting Ps appear evenly-matched. New York has a wonderful record at home, but Toronto has been strong on the road. While the Mets have struggled against left-handed pitchers, Walker’s brand is only superficially tarnished by his controversial error and departure from the diamond against the Pittsburgh Pirates. If the starting pitchers combine for 10 frames, the match-up on the mound is unlikely to decide the ballgame.

Runs decide every ballgame, and there’s plus-odds on the club with spring in its step. While the opponents’ records are comparable, the Blue Jays are lagging in a fierce AL race while the Mets stand proudly atop the NL East. Toronto’s batters have produced little since feasting on the Texas Rangers following the All-Star Break. Mets hitters could be trending in the opposite direction.

Pick: Mets (+110)

7/23/21

Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers

Daily Double wondered yesterday what the sports-betting impact of Yermin Mercedes’ sudden, unexpected sabbatical would be. As it turns out, the line-movement on Friday’s series opener between the ChiSox and host Milwaukee Brewers is so subtle that gamblers unaware of the drama out of Chicago might mistake the market’s brief history for any old MLB moneyline trend.

Milwaukee is the (-120) favorite in a clash of division leaders despite coming off 2 strange losses in a row to Kansas City. Perhaps the Brew Crew was looking ahead to hosting a stronger American League club, having prepared 7-3 Freddy Peralta for a start in the opener against Chicago’s probable pitcher Lucas Giolito.

If the match-up on the mound is comparable, the mindset of the clubs is not. Milwaukee could lose a fireworks-fest against the Chicago White Sox 2 out of 3 times, but given an expected tense, anxious, low-scoring ballgame on Friday, we’re not predicting 100% focus from a visiting team that’s dealing with mad distractions.

Pick: Brewers 

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers

Colorado is back on the road, but L.A. is still only a 1/1 Run Line pick with David Price on the mound?

No need for a long digression this time.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line (-1.5) 

7/22/21

Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins

The MLB community was cold-cocked on Wednesday by the news that Yermin Mercedes of the Chicago White Sox is quitting baseball indefinitely, causing Daily Double to wonder exactly what kind of shock wave will impact the Las Vegas odds on Chicago’s next ballgame on Friday. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins might be shocked at their own trendiness as a (-135) moneyline wager for Thursday night, given the 2021 season that the club has had.

There are some indications that L.A. Angels starter Andrew Heaney can keep up with opposing Kenta Maeda in the series opener at Target Field, at least for a few innings. Maeda has improved his form as well recently, though, even as his spot in the rotation lands the veteran hurler in match-ups against pedestrian lineups.

Paradoxically, the ball team with the better win-loss record by a mile – Los Angeles – appears to be the roster without any spirit, while Minnesota continues to fight bravely onward. The Halos won 2 out of 6 games against the Mariners before getting trounced by Oakland 11-1 in 18 innings. Meanwhile, the Twins won twice as an underdog vs the ChiSox and are batting well enough to give visiting hurlers trouble. Heaney fared poorly in Seattle on Friday.

Pick: Twins (-135) or Twins Run Line (-1.5) (+140) 

San Francisco Giants at L.A. Dodgers

There’s no shock over a modest (8) run O/U total in SoCal (I like my segues to be of the “beating a dead horse” variety) when the Dodgers meet the Giants for a co-nightcap, but a (+100) payoff line on the Over betrays a lack of basic analysis on the part of bookmakers.

Neither host-starter Walker Buehler or opposing Anthony DeSclafani’s starts have been leading to low-side totals outcomes with any regularity lately, despite exceptionally solid W/L records and ERAs. San Francisco isn’t the small-ball team it once was and we know what the Bums can do to a bullpen. Try O(8) for a road-less-traveled (than my segue game) brand of 1/1 winner.

Pick: Over 

7/21/21

Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros

Las Vegas and London sportsbooks agree that the Houston Astros are a minus-odds favorite to win ATS (-1.5) when the Cleveland Indians visit Space City for a series closer on Wednesday. However, oddsmakers are split as to whether O(9) or U(9) runs should carry the more generous payoff line.

No wonder there’s a consensus (excuse the pun) on Houston as a heavy favorite. Kyle Tucker led a batting onslaught from the ‘Stros on Tuesday in a 9-3 win that secured at least a 2-1 triumph in the series. Cleveland is trotting out 1-3 Eli Morgan vs Lance McCullers Jr. in a meek effort to ward-off a costly 3-game sweep.

But there’s indications that each hurler could be on his best form Wednesday night, making the O/U line a much better “line” of attack for hardball handicappers. Morgan has steadied considerably, and McCullers could be good for 7 or 8 innings of service. Houston’s recent trend toward the low-side of O/U totals belies the club’s 2021 betting stats, and the Tribe hasn’t scored 5+ runs in a ballgame for about a week and a half now.

Pick: Under 

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals could be a vulnerable baseball club on Wednesday, or at least the most anxious of any MLB team that’s threatening to get on a hot streak. The Redbirds had already won 4 out of 5 ballgames upon taking a lead on the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday, but a crazy 6-run 9th inning rally brought the Cubbies back from the brink of defeat and evened the series 1-1.

Cardinals moneylines are popular at (-115) despite the snafu. But I’m not feeling the pitching match-up for St. Louis. Adam Wainwright has played the role of bona-fide heartland hero, but that’s not the role he’s playing now. Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs has been markedly superior to Wainwright in ’21 despite like ERAs.

Pick: Cubs (+105) 

7/20/21

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds

Early numbers on the Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets contest on Tuesday indicate opening odds of (+115) on the visiting Metropolitans, leaving Cincy’s moneyline close to 1/1. While the NL East leaders look superficially superior to the Reds right now, there’s only so many days in a row that a ball team can dominate with only 1 aspect of its game.

New York’s starting-rotation depth is losing a battle with injuries, causing the Mets to cough-up 36 runs-against in the last 5 games. The Cincinnati Reds are coming off a bummer series-loss to the rival Milwaukee Brewers, but it’s no kind of adversity that the club didn’t already work through during a sour spring.

Wade Miley will start against 0-2 Robert Stock on Tuesday, marking the Reds likely to get better in at least 1 category following Monday’s whirlwind loss, while the Mets might just give up another big bundle of runs without scoring as many this time.

Pick: Reds 

Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies

We’ve had a lot of fun predicting Colorado Rockies ballgames this season, mostly thanks to the Rockies’ amazing disparity of home vs away performance, still strangely underrated at times by bookmakers who appear to be waiting for the phenomenon to end. Colorado is a confident (Even) Run Line favorite for Tuesday night’s series opener with the visiting Seattle Mariners.

There are angles countervailing Colorado’s fine record at Coors Field and Seattle’s struggles on the road. Seattle has successfully hefted weight through a July schedule that’s included a meeting with the New York Yankees and 6 straight ballgames against the L.A. Angels, 2 opponents far more desperate (and dangerous) than their season records might indicate in the dog days. The Rox just upset the L.A. Dodgers in a series closer, but the Bums weren’t necessarily expected to win 3 straight in Denver.

Those angles diminish when you inspect the pitching match-up. Reliable German Marquez will start against 1-5 Marco Gonzales, an even bigger mismatch with you consider how good the Rox are at taking advantage of weak pitching on hot mile-high days.

Pick: Rockies Run Line (-1.5) 

7/19/21

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays

The Houston Astros are getting a ton of respect from Las Vegas prior to Monday’s action, with a 1-to-1 (-1.5) Run Line on the ‘Stros headed into a series opener with the formidable Cleveland Indians at Minute Maid Park. However, despite Houston’s AL rival Tampa Bay playing a far-lesser opponent on Monday evening, the Rays are also a 1/1 bet minus a run and a half against the Baltimore Orioles in a game with a (9) run O/U line.

If the Astros are a potential easy RL winner against a solid ballclub, why are the Rays not getting even thinner payoff odds against a patsy? The key angle is Baltimore’s probable pitcher Spencer Watkins, a rookie who’s been excellent in appearances against the Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox. Tampa took its time to settle on probable starter Ryan Yarbrough.

Yarbrough is 6-3 this season, completing a tough pair on the mound. Baltimore’s offense could be due for negative reversion even though the Orioles have lost more than enough games already, and the Rays won’t mind scoring just enough to win.

Pick: Under 

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

Why are most of the sharks in Sin City (and elsewhere) going for L.A.’s shrinking (-120) moneyline to defeat the San Francisco Giants on Monday night? San Francisco is leading the division, and plans to start 9-3 Kevin Gausman to begin the crucial series. While the Dodgers beat the Giants twice in a short series at the end of June, it’s noteworthy that both ballgames were in doubt to the finish, and Gigantes are 7 games over .500 on the road.

Some MLB gamblers are likely drawn to a subtle angle involving L.A. probable pitcher Tony Gonsolin. Gonsolin’s meek 4-innings pitched against the Arizona Diamondbacks in his last outing would seem to pale in the face of Gausman’s most recent appearances, but the Bums also have a terrific coaching staff that knows how to think ahead. Los Angeles didn’t need 6+ innings from Gonsolin to beat the poor Diamondbacks, and he’ll be coming in on more rest than Gausman – who has endured 2 consecutive stressful games vs the Cardinals and Nationals.

There’s an even better reason to pick the defending champs, though. Dodger bats are finally getting tuned-up for the stretch run, and L.A. has scored 5+ runs in 75% of its last dozen ballgames, including a mammoth 22-run performance against Arizona. San Francisco, meanwhile, has blown 2 chances to win series against a vulnerable St. Louis team while dealing with prolonged injury problems, and could be ready to play the foil in an NL West takeover at Dodger Stadium.

Pick: Dodgers 

7/18/21

Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks

NL Central clubs are getting a dose of respect from the MLB betting community prior to Sunday’s hardball. Cincinnati and Milwaukee are each drawing healthy moneyline action for an expected close game at Great American Ball Park, while the St. Louis Cardinals have turned from a plus-odds underdog to a (-104) ML wager to defeat San Francisco in the afternoon.

Chicago Cubs fans must feel left out, or at least like their team is getting a paltry favorite’s line at just (-115) to beat the host Arizona Diamondbacks, for whom as a case can be made as the worst team in the major leagues. 2 angles are holding the Cubs back from drawing more Sunday bets – uncertainty about the form of visiting probable pitcher Zach Davies and the fact that Arizona is defending against a potential series-sweep.

Those prognosticating a surprise Snakes victory should look at the home team’s side of the pitching ledger. Caleb Smith appears to have finally fallen off a cliff after a season of trying to hold up a sinking franchise. Given that Davies hasn’t won a ballgame in weeks and Smith was just on the wrong side of an historic winning margin, the hurlers could pitch so cautiously that each offense is allowed to chip away a run or 2 at a time. But that just increases the chances of a 4-4 tie and a fail-safe on the game’s (9) run O/U line, a line that could just as easily get blown-away by the batting orders.

Pick: Over

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

Sunday Night Baseball hasn’t forgotten the AL East, and a marquee pairing of the New York Yankees and visiting Boston Red Sox promises fireworks 2 weekends after July 4th. But it’s been mostly smoke bombs and bottle rockets at Yankee Stadium so far, with Boston posting a shut-out on Friday and the Pinstripes fighting back with a 3-1 “Little League” win on Saturday behind 6 strong innings (the only 6 innings) from Garrit Cole.

Nevertheless, the high side of a (9) run total is the trendy bet for Sunday’s closer. Speculators are noting, correctly, that neither of SNB’s starters Jameson Taillon or Martin Perez are headed for stellar years. Given that the Yankees appear to have a slight edge on the mound, but the Red Sox are an excellent road team taking on a Bronx lineup still mired in 4th place, the O/U line would indeed be a safer market than a side…normally.

The Yankees have been hit with a COVID-19 rash at a very bad time, thinning the team’s lineup considerably. Perhaps the Boston at New York series isn’t a shaken bottle with a cork on the top, but the Red Sox doing just enough to handle a home team that’s running out of time to catch momentum. Offense could be in short supply for a 3rd straight ballgame, but there’s no mistaking which club is basking in the sunshine and which is ice cold.

Pick: Red Sox (+101)

7/17/21

Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox

Houston (-102) and Chicago each went into the All-Star break by winning a bunch of games, but caveats and considerations are still weighing on each club’s Sin City handicap. ChiSox wins over the Twins, Orioles, and Tigers can be seen as nothing more than Tony LaRussa putting as many Ws in the bank as possible vs the dregs of the AL. Injuries have been an issue for the Astros, who regained Carlos “Chick” Correa’s services already this weekend.

You wouldn’t know the series at Guaranteed Rate Field was a clash of titans from game 1’s outcome, a 7-1 pasting in favor of the Astros. Chicago managed only 2 hits against Lance McCullers Jr. while producing the team’s worst run output in weeks. Houston’s getting some grudgingly increased action at sportsbooks on Friday night, but many bookmakers are still offering the Astros at a technical underdog’s line of (-102) in the follow-up.

That could be a mistake. Probable visiting pitcher Jake Odorizzi has been belying his 3-4 record as a model of consistency in recent appearances. The same can’t be said for opposing starter Lucas Giolito, who was embarrassed by the Detroit Tigers on Independence Day. It’s going to take ace-level performances to corral the ‘Stros offense in the dog days.

Pick: Astros

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels

Houston Astros fans are looking at their club’s prodigious road stats and wondering if Houston is overachieving in other ballparks, or simply underachieving at home. Seattle supporters (not to be confused with the Emerald City Supporters) are asking different questions about a baseball club that can’t take its show on the road. To reach the land of Oz, or at least the MLB playoffs, the Seattle Mariners must build on recent success at T-Mobile Park. A puncher’s chance to win the AL West in September is at stake.

Friday’s series-opening in L.A. was a positive step in that development, but victory didn’t come with ease. Seattle took a 4-run lead into the late innings before warding-off a furious Halos rally that put a tying run at 3rd and a potential winning run on 1st base with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th.

The Los Angeles Angels do not appear to be a popular moneyline pick at (-120) and fattening odds to win Saturday night’s ballgame. Bettors trust visiting starter Yusei Kikuchi to play well against SoCal pitcher Alex Cobb, and it’s true that Cobb’s 6-3 W/L record spanks his 4.00+ ERA. But the latter starting hurler has been terrific against the Ms as recently as 7/9, while the same can’t be said for Kikuchi, who lasted 4 innings in his last appearance against Los Angeles and comes off a bummer start vs the Yankees.

Pick: Angels

7/16/21

Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves

A pair of MLB clubs were on the verge of taking win streaks into the All-Star break, yet each team lost its ballgame last Sunday. Will the Atlanta Braves or the visiting Tampa Bay Rays arrive refreshed, focused, and dialed-in enough to get back on the winning track?

If you accept the premise that Tampa Bay’s laundry list of injuries will eventually slow the Rays down, at least defensively, then there’s reason to take the slightly-favored Braves in Friday’s opener. Gamblers are counting on a start from Charlie Morton to keep Tampa bats quiet, and opposing Michael Wacha has only rowed a W ashore for the ’21 Rays twice, and that won’t dooooo ya.

However, an analysis of recent form reveals that Wacha could be poised to prosper in this season’s dog days. Morton, meanwhile, has the burden of taking on his old teammates. A likely toss-up type of outcome means there’s only 1 logical side-bet.

Pick: Rays (+117) 

San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals

Probable pitcher Kevin Gausman and the San Francisco Giants are a solid (-160) favorite to win a 2nd-half launch at Ballpark Village on Friday night. But a wide gap in payoff odds between ML and Run Line markets betrays that while bookmakers think San Fran is likely to win by 1 run, it might be difficult for either club to win by 2 or more runs in what’s expected to be a low-scoring ballgame. O/U totals for St. Louis vs San Francisco opened at (7.5).

Gausman’s weaknesses on the mound are few, but he’s been prone to high-risk, high-reward battles with dangerous hitters, and gunning for a big K total isn’t the best means to put out the Cardinals, a team that seldom strikes out at home. That makes the San Fran moneyline a fool’s gambit. But opposing hurler Adam Wainwright’s got the opposite problem, since the Giants are prone to strike out a lot despite a nice stat line from the plate, but Wainwright’s current form is not conducive to whiffing a ton of batters. I’m expecting at least 8-9 runs in the contest.

Pick: Over 

*2021 All-Star Break*

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

One of our rules for Daily Double is that a day’s previews and predictions shouldn’t go on top of the page while a predicted ballgame is still in progress. The L.A. Dodgers have taken care of that quite easily on Saturday night by whipping the Arizona Diamondbacks from pillar to post. Press time for Sunday’s picks may fall on the 7th inning stretch at Dodger Stadium, but the defending champs currently lead 9-0 in the 6th inning of a game that included Justin Turner’s first major league Grand Slam.

What other batting lineups could be poised for 1 last hurrah before the All-Star break? San Diego has been garnering plenty of headlines, with the Padres’ generous RBI total helping to overcome a laundry list of injuries in the pitching stable. The Pads’ series closer with Colorado on Sunday (what Sunday ballgame isn’t a series closer this time?) comes with a rising (9) run O/U line thanks to the hype around the host offense.

It takes 2 teams’ worth of potential scoring to make a high % “Over” pick however, and the Rockies aren’t ready to tango in that department against a start from Ryan Weathers. Colorado is not a dangerous batting order on the road by any stretch, having won a mind-numbing 7 games away from Coors Field. Rox road games have lost on the Over almost twice as often as the Under.

Those factors make plus-odds of (+105) a really nice deal for the Padres and minus 1.5.

Pick: Padres Run Line (-1.5) 

Arizona Diamondbacks at L.A. Dodgers

It’s only fitting to cover the World Champs again before leaving readers until next weekend. But you’d want to pay attention to the Las Vegas action for Arizona’s last game of an embarrassing series at Dodger Stadium on Sunday afternoon regardless, since bookmakers are stuck in a bases-loaded jam with a previously falling O/U total of (8.5) now poised for a different turn given the Los Angeles Dodgers’ nuclear explosion of offense on Saturday.

Maybe the high-side of (8.5) is a nice bet given that the Bums are already threatening to hit a batting efficiency peak, matching superstars with parking-lot power with solid plate discipline. Merrill Kelly sounds like an insurance CEO sponsoring golf tournaments, but he’ll have more than a nervous 15-second CBS spot to deal with on Sunday. However, all of the angles I just mentioned are probably best applied to the Run Line, with (-110) odds on Los Angeles (-1.5) standing as a very, very cautious, perhaps too cautious, line on a huge mismatch that just happened to end in a weird low-scoring upset in Game 1 but is otherwise predictable, at a time when L.A. is making a statement.

Dodger hurler Tony Gonsolin comes into the ballgame looking pretty spotless. His stamina hasn’t been great lately, at least from an innings-pitched POV. But if Gonsolin leaves under duress in the 5th inning again, it’s probably not going to affect the ATS outcome. L.A. bullpen is in a well-rested position after not needing any kind of serious work on Saturday night.

I don’t necessarily like O(9) at anything but reverse-juiced payoff odds, so if your sportsbook doesn’t offer (8.5), a lone wager on just the side should provide a 65% chance of winning.

Picks: Dodgers Run Line (-1.5) and Over (8.5) 

7/10/21

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins may soon have to face facts – there will be no repeating the Cinderella playoff run of 2020 this season. That’s not stopping MLB gamblers from hedging toward the Fish for Saturday’s follow-up with the Atlanta Braves (+100) and turning the visitors from a thin favorite on opening to an underdog as of Saturday morning. Probable pitcher Trevor Rogers has been shining for Magic City while opposing Max Fried of the Braves fared freakishly badly against the Pittsburgh Pirates in his most recent start.

It’s tempting to bet Atlanta’s moneyline, especially at pure 1-to-1 odds. Atlanta is the well motivated club, a team that’s taking advantage of a soft spot in the schedule to put together a warm streak and look to charge for the division crown following the All-Star break. The shock of Marcell Ozuna’s disgusting alleged crime and indefinite hiatus from the clubhouse has begun to wear off, putting the Braves in position to play as a true favorite on Saturday if Fried’s expected reversion to form produces a strong defensive day.

The low O/U total of (7) shows that bookmakers and sharks alike expect Fried to fare well vs the Fish. Yes, the Miami Marlins won a series with the L.A. Dodgers very recently, but the Bums can’t help that fans’ expectations are out-pacing the calendar and the natural flow of a season.

I’m also feeling a system-pick on the high side of the total since the 2nd game is almost certain to be a close contest, making a late 3-3 tie and a fail-safe scenario more likely.

Picks: Braves + Over (7) 

Arizona Diamondbacks at L.A. Dodgers

Speaking of the Dodgers, the ballclub’s performance has to be maddening for SoCal baseball fans at the moment, except those exclusively loyal to the Padres or Angels. Every time the Bums appear to get some serious momentum going, the team loses a series to a lesser foe or falls flat at an unexpected time, such as in Friday’s opening 5-2 loss to the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks.

Saturday night’s follow-up handicap has less to do with the wildly disparate records of L.A. and Arizona and more to do with a simple principle of MLB offense. Ballgames are designed to give pitchers and fielders an advantage most of the time, but the Dodger lineup is so dangerous, and the Diamondbacks so weak at the worst possible spot, that series like Snakes vs Dodgers will become ticking time-bombs for the underdog as the season goes on. Caleb Smith has been pretty solid considering the circumstances and could stand up vs opposing Walker Buehler for a few innings, but it won’t be enough. Buehler has lost only once all year.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line (-1.5) (-130) 

7/9/21

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

We knew that at some point in 2021, the old “bet against the trending wager on a rising total” would come back into play. Gamblers who aren’t obsessed with which team will win the 2nd contest between the Brewers and Reds on Friday have already pushed a standard opening O/U total to (9) runs despite potential shower-delays and wind that might not be cooperative. Nobody seems that impressed with Milwaukee probable pitcher Eric Lauer, but he’s played really well in consecutive starts and could get into a long-innings duel with Reds starter Wade Miley.

Pick: Under 

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

Readers may have noticed our mistake yesterday, when Detroit’s “Run Line” was advertised as “-1.5” runs even though Minnesota was clearly the favorite to win and a (-1.5) bet to cover. Apologies all, but I won’t bother to say anything pithy like “it won’t happen again” or “we’ll check for typos next time.” Proofreading usually does take place at WagerBop, but I’ve come to realize over the years that + vs – errors in odds listings happen about once every month or 2 for every sports website, independent of any effort (or lack thereof) to catch and fix them prior to publish.

Detroit, of course, looked to cover easily with an early lead before falling short in Thursday’s opener. Kenta Maeda’s previous start for the Twins has MLB bettors excited enough about Milwaukee’s chances to shut down the Tigers on Friday night that the Brew Crew (-1.5) (-120) (<— triple checked!) has become the morning’s most popular ATS pick.

Maeda needs more than just 1 or 2 solid starts to prove that his form is approaching what fans have hoped for. Detroit’s pitching staff, meanwhile, is a disaster with injuries and attrition. Bovada’s (+100) odds on the high-side of a modest O/U line is the value. Detroit’s real problems aren’t on offense, at least at this particular time in the season.

Pick: Over (9.5) 

Scroll onward for WagerBop scout Jake Peter’s weekend MLB rankings!

American League

1 – Houston Astros

Losing star outfielder George Springer hasn’t slowed the Astros down at all. The team currently holds the top spot in the AL at 54-33, and they’ve won 6 straight. Houston’s stars have hit well
this season, but it’s been contributions from newcomers like right fielder Kyle Tucker that have made the difference. On the season, Tucker has 14 homers and 48 RBIs, and he’s hitting .264.

2 – Boston Red Sox

Few expected much from the Red Sox this season, but they’ve continued to defy expectations. Boston is second in the AL at 54-34, and they’ve won 7 of their last 10. The team’s offense has been strong, but their pitching staff has been especially impressive given the lack of star power they have on paper. Nathan Eovaldi in particular is playing like an All-Star, and he’s 9-5 through 18 starts with 99 strikeouts and a 3.66 ERA.

3 – Chicago White Sox

The White Sox wallowed at the bottom of the AL standings for much of the 2010s, but they’ve finally managed to turn things around. Chicago is currently third in the AL at 51-35, and they’ve
won 7 of their last 10. Superstar first baseman José Abreu is putting together another MVP campaign, racking up 15 homers and 63 RBIs while hitting .246.

4 – Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays go about their business quietly, but they’re once again one of the most dangerous sleepers in the AL this season. At the moment, the team is fourth in the AL at 51-36 and has won
4 straight. Second baseman Brandon Lowe is having a career year, and he’s powered Tampa’s offense with 18 homers and 44 RBIs while batting .206 and drawing 37 walks.

5 – Oakland Athletics

The Athletics slipped this week, having lost 7 of 10, but they’re still clinging to fifth place in the AL at 49-39. Oakland has put forward a balanced offensive attack this season, but some hitters
have stood out. Namely, catcher Sean Murphy and third baseman Matt Chapman have combined for 21 home runs and 82 RBIs so far.

National League

1 – San Francisco Giants

The Giants finally appeared mortal this week, and they have lost 6 of their last 10. Still, San Francisco holds the top spot in the NL at 54-32. Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria have landed onthe Injured List, but shortstop Brandon Crawford just can’t stop raking. Crawford has 17 homers and 55 RBIs on the season, and he’s hitting .275.

2 – Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers continued their hot streak this week, and they’re breathing down the Giants’ neck in second place in the NL. L.A. is currently 53-34 and has won 7 of 10. Clayton Kershaw hit the Injured List, but the rest of the pitching staff hasn’t let up. The Dodgers rank first in the NL in team ERA, second in hits allowed, and second in strikeouts.

3 – Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers finally broke out of their middling ways this week, and they’ve won 7 of their last 10. That run has lifted the team to third in the NL, where they sit at 52-36. Kolten Wong, Travis Shaw, and Daniel Vogelbach have all hit the Injured List, but right fielder Avisail Garcia has maintained his ridiculous production in their stead. Garcia has 15 homers and 51 RBIs on the year.

4 – San Diego Padres

The Padres didn’t move much this week, but they still own the fourth spot in the NL at 51-38. San Diego is 31-17 at home this season. The team’s pitchers haven’t been particularly impressiveoutside of Yu Darvish, but Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado have almost single-handedly turned the Padres into a force to be reckoned with. On the season, they have combined for 42 homers and 117 RBIs so far.

5 – New York Mets

The Mets didn’t make any major moves in the standings either, but they still possess the fifth spot in the NL at 45-38. New York is 26-12 at home this season. Taijuan Walker has stepped for-ward as the team’s second pitching option behind Jacob deGrom by going 7-3 through 15 starts and totaling 87 strikeouts with a 2.44 ERA.

7/8/21

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

Among the group of Over/Under lines shifting wildly prior to Thursday’s hardball action is a rising (9.5) line for Minnesota and Detroit’s series opener at Target Field. While the number isn’t necessarily moving as quickly as other Thursday lines, it’s noteworthy that the puny Detroit Tigers – and a Twins club that’s disappointed at almost every turn in 2021 – should be responsible for an O/U run total rising sharply.

Regrettably, only half of the prevailing handicap makes any sense. It’s true that J.A. Happ and Tarik Skubal aren’t the most attractive probable pitching pair, and Detroit’s bats are certainly alive enough to earn Ws for the Tigers even when a terribly injured pitching stable doesn’t hold up. But the Minnesota Twins could be headed into another dreadful slump from the plate and in the field, failing to win a do-or-die series with KC and losing 5 out of 6 ballgames to the Chicago White Sox.

The better of 2 baseball clubs will be occupying the visitors’ dugout, making Detroit’s (-150) Run Line odds into a home-plate steal.

Pick: Tigers Run Line (+1.5) (-150) 

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres

Daily Double does recommend a wager on another moving O/U line for Thursday night, a falling (7) number for a series closing San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals ballgame in which a pair of excellent starting pitchers will try to corral dangerous batting lineups. Max Scherzer and Yu Darvish are big games in the game for a reason, but it’s irrational to think 8 more runs can’t be scored in a series that’s been lit up with fireworks since the day after Independence Day.

Pick: Over 

7/7/21

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels

Assuming the Yankees and Mariners can combine for 2+ runs in the last 5 innings of T-Mobile’s Tuesday nightcap, Daily Double is on yet another unbeaten weekday roll. “Action Points” gamblers who check our predictions made out like bandits on the Chicago-Philadelphia ballgame as the Cubs and Phillies combined for 25 runs, 15.5 over the O/U line.

As always when picks are winning, our aim isn’t to look predominantly for fat underdog lines on which to “spend house money” (which doesn’t exist) but rather to try to maintain and build on the successful process going forward. Still, it’s hard to know where to start on a Wednesday evening of upcoming MLB action for which sharks don’t seem to have picked out a moneyline worth going after.

Except for 1 – the (-123) Boston Red Sox line to defeat host Los Angeles for the 2nd game in a row. Boston’s odds opened at a standard (-110) but gamblers have quickly figured out that there’s no pitching advantage for the underdog, which is otherwise not looking so hot when the Halos face tough competition. Probable pitcher Andrew Heaney has been dreadful against teams like San Francisco and Oakland in recent appearances, and probable won’t notch another W until the Angels hit a softer spot in the schedule.

Pick: Red Sox

Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros

Another O/U total has fallen a mite too far as Houston vs Oakland can be found at O/U (8.5) or at least (9) runs. Bookmakers appear to be waiting for Wednesday’s starting hurlers Luis Garcia and Sean Manaea to return to ace-like form with sharp reversion, but there’s more than just a few innings’ worth of evidence from recent appearances – neither man is likely to shut down his opponent. The Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics need no “reversion” from the plate to have success on Wednesday night, with the wind expected to blow out of Minute Maid Park and 15 runs already scored in the series opener.

Pick: Over 

7/6/21

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs

Gamblers aren’t worried about the Chicago Cubs winning on the moneyline. In midst of a dreadful downturn for the NL Central club, the Philadelphia Phillies (-133) have become a trending pick to win a 2nd ballgame at Wrigley Field after crushing the ailing Cubbies by 10 runs in the opener on Monday. Philly could easily punish Cubs starter Jake Arrieta, who’s been blown off the diamond prematurely in 2 out of 3 starts. However, the same is true for Philadelphia’s probable pitcher Aaron Nola, who’s just 5-5 on the year.

The duel possibilities of another huge Phillies romp or a lavish early-innings result for both batting lineups calls a line of O(9.5) (+100) into question. Perhaps bookmakers will hope that gamblers intrigued by straight up 1/1 payout will get giddy and drive the total into the stratosphere for 2 ordinary offenses, with books cleaning up when the game ends 6-4. But that won’t matter if you bet early on the high-side of a foolishly low number.

Pick: Over 

New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners

Why are the New York Yankees such a popular bet at (-150) in midst of a very inconsistent summer on the Bronx diamond? Apologies to those readers who enjoy our most long-winded MLB touts (all 4 of you!) but this will be succinct – the O/U (9) is once again a much better market to consider than a favorite’s ML. Not to say the Yankees (and/or Phillies) won’t win on Tuesday, but the Seattle Mariners are fighting hard to remain in contention and have won 4 out of 5 ballgames coming into the series opener with New York. You’ll find that the game’s starting hurlers (Tallion vs Sheffield) are not living up to their name brands in 2021, making the Over the strongest main-market pick to be gleaned from the chaotic analysis of 2 shaky starters.

Pick: Over 

7/5/21

Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets

Our MLB picks were looking good for 2-0-0 on Independence Day as of the 5th inning of Baltimore at L.A. – when all hell broke loose and sent the Angels vs Orioles final score over the pregame Over/Under total. Could the same thing be about to happen in the Big Apple, where gamblers have moved the O/U line up to (7.5) total runs despite Brandon Woodruff taking the mound for the Brewers in addition to Mets probable P Tylor Megill’s promise shown in a recent 8-strikeout outing vs the Atlanta Braves.

Milwaukee’s had a superficial trend of high-side totals results in the past handful of ballgames, but the team’s games are still under .500 vs the O/U on the road. New York just completed a rivalry series with the Yankees. Milwaukee just blew a chance to sweep Pittsburgh and saw a winning streak snapped in frustrating shut-out fashion for the trouble. Neither lineup is likely to be feeling it from the plate against quality pitching.

Pick: Under 

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels

The Red Sox are clearly a better ballclub than the Angels, but lines are drawn at even (-110) for the series opener between L.A. and Boston thanks to each team’s momentum and a start from Jose Suarez of the Halos.

Boston’s starter Martin Perez has been pretty effective at 6-4 on the season, but has been treated with kid gloves and pulled out of jams early in games. Suarez, meanwhile, is new to the Angel rotation and could have issues with an extended pitch-count that haven’t been as big of a factor while he’s worked up good numbers pitching out of the bullpen in 2021. Meanwhile, Perez’s lack of clutch put-outs in recent contests (or the opportunity to make them) makes the Red Sox bullpen stand out as a key angle. But the unit is healthy and playing well, which is more than could be said for just about any given group of ballplayers with the L.A. Angels until last week, when the club happened to meet up with 2 troubled American League opponents.

Pick: Red Sox 

7/4/21

Happy Independence Day, ‘Boppers! Daily Double is sure that no one cares to read long-winded MLB predictions today – readers want to gather tips quickly while gathering food, dessert, spirits, and bottle rockets. So here’s a couple of concise handicaps for July 4th on the diamond, but please be advised that just a little bit more than 1 paragraph of careful analysis lies behind each single-paragraph pick on Sunday’s ledger.

Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels

Bookmakers feel compelled to slap a double-digit run total on L.A. vs Baltimore, even though we more often see O/U (10) on less downtrodden teams in thinner air or more tropical conditions than SoCal. Bookmakers are convinced that batters will punish starting hurlers Patrick Sandoval and Thomas Eshelman of the Halos and O-Birds respectively, but since when do sagging baseball clubs only struggle on the mound? Saturday’s game finished 4-1, and the Angels’ expected 2+ run win on Sunday is a scenario that would reduce the chance of an extra-innings bad beat for U(10) wagers.

Pick: Under

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB’s Independence Day nightcap features another match-up on the mound that could outshine expectations, the 8-3 Anthony DeSclafani of San Francisco and hard-luck hurler Caleb Smith of Arizona. Smith’s bad luck refers to his solid ERA next to a 2-4 W/L record, but we can safely say that Smith’s foul fortune extends to his contract to pitch for the 2021 Arizona Diamondbacks. The San Francisco Giants were unexpectedly stung at the beginning of the 4-game meeting and would love to not only win the series 3 wins to 1 but do so in convincing fashion on July 4th. Gamblers perusing the weather forecast may be stung by a prediction of 100+ degrees on the diamond on Sunday night, but the temperature will drop swiftly as the sun does, allowing Gigantes to manage normally and execute a win.

Pick: Giants Run Line (-1.5) (-105) 

7/3/21

Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals

It’s hard to look at the L.A. Dodgers ledger of games and know if the defending World Series champs are finally on the summertime roll that they’re expected to eventually ride toward another NL pennant. Like the Allied Forces disguising the Normandy invasion as a tactical jab, the Dodgers (a 1-to-1 (-1.5) Run Line pick for Saturday’s game at Washington) could be storming the beach sooner than anticipated, though technically they’re on a roller-coaster.

Things got interesting last Friday, when Max Muncy led the Bums to a 6-2 win over the Chicago Cubs that snapped a brief losing skid. Snap your fingers, and suddenly it’s a week later and the Dodgers haven’t lost a ballgame since. L.A. produced an amazing 9-run rally in the 7th inning of Friday’s contest, turning the 7th-inning stretch at Nationals Park into a glum affair. Washington is hovering around .500 and is perceived to be helpless against the onslaught.

Gamblers are ignoring the hosts’ Run Line compared to a shrinking Saturday ML on the Nats, which opens the door to an against-the-grain pick ATS. Nationals probable pitcher Paolo Espino can keep up with a 9-7 Clayton Kershaw for at least a while, and Washington was putting its own hot streak together coming into the 4-game series. Nasty headlines about Trevor Bauer’s alleged crimes will be splashed across 6 continents this weekend, an angle that may not hurt L.A.’s momentum in the short term but cannot possibly help.

Pick: Nationals Run Line (+1.5) (+100)

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners

Bookmakers appear to have out-thought themselves when setting the consensus O/U line for the 2nd of 3 Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers contests on Saturday night. The run-total line of (8.5) runs is a clear nod to expected batting reversion for both ballclubs, Sleepy early innings for each team in Friday’s series opener appeared to confirm the theory just as bookmakers were readjusting the numbers for Saturday’s nightcap.

While scheduled starters Marco Gonzales and Jordan Lyles have combined for only 4 wins on the 2021 season, Sin City ‘cappers seem impressed enough by the pair’s improvement in recent outings to slap an ordinary O/U on the teams. T-Mobile Park has been known for clutch saves this season as the Mariners build a fine home record despite quiet bats on occasion.

The handicap flies in the face of promising recent outings for both batting lineups, Apart from a 7-strikeout performance from Gonzales against the Lone Stars last season, neither hurler has shown much improvement vs the opponents at hand, and Gonzales is also having the worse year of Saturday’s starters. With each probable pitcher giving up a 5+ ERA, the only way an (8.5) total makes sense is if reversion were already bearing down on the clubs. Seattle is motivated to make a Cinderella playoff run, but if oddsmakers are right that the Mariners (-140) can’t pull away from the Rangers, that also increases the chances of extra-innings and a back-door line cover.

Pick: Over

7/2/21

New York Mets at New York Yankees

Popular MLB underdog markets have been scarce for the past week as gamblers watch hurlers get harassed by umpires and plagued by strict substance-use rules, leaving strong batting lineups to inflict damage. The NL East leading New York Mets gave up 20 runs on Wednesday in midst of a series loss to the Atlanta Braves, leaving the Mets in a state of chagrin headed into an Independence Day rivalry series with the Bronx Bombers. The New York Yankees opened as a solid favorite for Friday evening’s series opener at Yankee Stadium, but excitement over the Mets has shrunk the underdog ML to (+118).

You can get excited about the Mets leading the division, or even cheerful about the Yankees’ prospects to surge in September with a talented roster. But it’s hard to get a rush of adrenaline from looking at either club’s outcomes over the past 2 weeks. Each team has been subject to pitiful dry spells at the plate. Neither the Yankees or Mets have won any series in recent memory, save for the Pinstripes taking 2 in a 3-game meeting with Kansas City on the 2nd to last week of June. Yankee base-runners scored a grand total of 8 times against quality Boston Red Sox pitching in the series to follow.

An O/U line of (9) total runs provides a superior betting option than the Mets’ essentially 1-to-1 odds to win. Friday starting hurlers Jordan Montgomery and Taijuan Walker are not slumping along with their teams, making this week’s high-scoring Yankees vs Angels tilt into an O/U betting mirage. Ballgames played-in by Big Apple teams are 17 games under .500 vs the O/U in ’21.

Pick: Under

St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies

Colorado could be on pace to post the best record of defending its home diamond of any recent team to lose 90-100 ballgames. The offense is a profoundly different unit in Denver, and 29 host-victories ranks the Rockies an incredible 2nd in the National League despite a 16-game gap separating the team from San Diego in the standings. That’s of little consolation to Rox fans, with exception of those who make Coors Field into a weekly party, but it’s important news for MLB gamblers.

A sky-high O/U total of (12) for Colorado’s 2nd of 4 games against the visiting St. Louis Cardinals (-110) reflects more than the thin Rocky Mountain air. Friday night’s starting pitchers Chi Chi “Don’t Call Me Rodriguez” Gonzalez will go up against Johan Oviedo of the Redbirds, with each P surrendering an ERA of close to 6 and standing a combined 2-9 in the W/L column. With each club coming into the series having greedily taken 3 games in a row from poor opponents (Pittsburgh in Colorado’s case and Arizona in St. Louis’s) it’s hard to discount either batting lineup against less-than-ideal pitching and defense.

But a headwind for hitters could make the Over (12) wager taboo, along with managers’ willingness to piece 9 innings of pitching together out of an entire staff. Friday’s starters should combine to play half of the ballgame at most, but crucially, Rodriguez has shown more promise (if either man has) in early summer. If either team’s defense has an edge in the early innings it’ll be Colorado – and that makes a trend-tastic Rox moneyline wager into the proper choice from a raw analytical standpoint as well.

Pick: Rockies 

Scroll onward for this week’s MLB rankings courtesy of WagerBop scout Jake Peter.

Daily Double’s Weekend MLB Rankings 7/2/21

American League

1 – Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are stunning the baseball world right now, and currently own the top spot in the AL with a 50-31 record. Boston has won 6 straight and 7 of their last 10, and the Red Sox don’t look to be slowing down at all. Returners like J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers have powered the team’s offense, but it’s been other position players like first baseman Bobby Dalbec who’ve made all the difference. Dalbec has 10 homers and 34 RBIs so far in his second MLB season.

2 – Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are 47-32, and sit in second place in the AL. The team has won just 4 of its last 10, but have continued to stick around at the top of the standings all season. Every single starter on the team has a winning record, and Chicago ranks first in the AL in team ERA, hits allowed, runs allowed, and strikeouts.

3 – Houston Astros

The Astros had a middling week and have split their last 10 games, but they still possess the third spot in the AL at 48-33. Houston will look to break out of a 4-game losing streak heading into next week. Alex Bregman is still on the injured list, but Jose Altuve has come on lately to make up the difference. Altuve is hitting .287 and has 17 homers, 43 RBIs, and 40 walks on the season.

4 – Oakland Athletics

Much like the White Sox, the Oakland As just keep finding ways to quietly win games. The team’s currently fourth in the AL at 48-34, though they’ve lost 6 of their last 10.

Surprisingly, it’s been Chris Bassitt who’s emerged as the team’s ace. He’s 9-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 109 strikeouts through 17 starts.

5 – Tampa Bay Rays

Despite a lack of star power, the Tampa Bay Rays appear to yet again be in position to make a World Series run. Today, the team sits in fifth place in the AL at 47-34 and have lost 6 of their last 10. Left fielder Randy Arozarena made a name for himself in last year’s playoffs and has carried that hot streak into this season. So far, he’s totaled 10 home runs, 40 RBIs, and 11 steals while hitting .261.

National League

1 — San Francisco Giants

Raise your hand if you picked the Giants to have the best record in baseball midway through the season. San Francisco just doesn’t know how to lose, and their 50-29 record is still the best in the NL. Former Cincinnati Red Anthony DeSclafani has come on as the team’s second-best starter, and he’s been putting up ace numbers. This year, he’s 8-3 with a 2.91 ERA and 86 strikeouts through 16 starts.

2 – Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are starting to hit their stride, and that could spell trouble for the rest of the MLB. The “superteam” roster is 49-31, and their 5-game winning stream has lifted them to second in the NL. Amazingly, it’s been Justin Turner who’s led the team in his 13th MLB season, racking up 12 homers and 40 RBIs while hitting .285.

3 – San Diego Padres

The Padres have also hit a hot streak recently, winning 9 of their last 10. San Diego’s 49-33 record is good enough for third in the NL right now. Third baseman Manny Machado has lived up to his monster contract this season by totaling 12 home runs and 50 RBIs while hitting .258.

4 – Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are the hottest team in baseball right now, having won 8 straight games. That streak has catapulted Milwaukee to fourth in the NL at 48-33. Starter Brandon Woodruff is having a career year in his fifth season. He’s currently 7-3 with an impressive 1.87 ERA and 119 strikeouts through 16 starts.

5 – New York Mets

The Mets may not be living up to their fans’ expectations, but they’re still putting themselves in position for a playoff run come October. At the moment, New York’s 41-35 record has them in fifth place in the NL. First baseman Pete Alonso has turned into a true superstar for the Mets, andhe’s got 13 homers and 40 RBIs, while hitting .264 this season.

7/1/21

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds

Thursday night’s tightest MLB moneylines are drawn for the Cincinnati Reds’ series closer with the visiting San Diego Padres. Cincy’s healthy supply of RBIs appears to have met its match at Great American Ball Park, with San Diego taking a 2-0 series lead on Trent Grisham’s decisive Grand Slam in the 5th inning of Wednesday’s shortened ballgame. Cincinnati’s line has threatened to shorten at a few sportsbooks, but remains stubbornly at around (+102) while the O/U total lowers to (9.5) runs, indicating that the public could be whiffing on the precise implications of a key angle for the closing contest.

Probable pitcher Luis Castillo’s season stats look hideously bad, but his form has improved markedly over several games. Over/Under gamblers have noticed that, but they should also consider that opposing P Ryan Weathers hasn’t been lasting as long on the mound, and that the Padres pitching staff is becoming a casualty ward. Castillo’s start combined with a healthier bullpen will put the Reds under less stress overall, and so the team’s superior offense at home makes Cincy an easy plus-odds pick.

Pick: Reds 

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

San Francisco’s (-135) moneyline is a popular (and shrinking) line for Thursday night, but Under (9) is the correct wager with Merrill Kelly poised to step in for the Snakes on the mound. Kelly has a more substantial record than a lot of Arizona hurlers in a terrible defensive year for the cellar ballclub, but the Giants aren’t poised for a batting explosion after scoring 5 or less runs in about 75% of their ballgames over a 10-day span. Johnny Cueto should be able to keep host bats quiet enough to bring the run total in below the Las Vegas number, given that Arizona is on yet another losing streak and isn’t motivated on offense.

Pick: Under 

6/30/21

Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals

There are lots of solid, ingrained “dollar and a half” ML favorites on Major League Baseball’s ledger for Wednesday, but the Tampa Bay Rays’ line is moving perilously close to 1/1 headed into the back end of a 2-game stint with the host Washington Nationals. Tampa Bay fell behind early in Tuesday’s ballgame and never quite caught up, helping Washington peek above .500 and giving rise to the notion that starter Jon Lester will produce a much-needed sweep in an afternoon closer.

Lester’s last outing was dreadful, while opposing Michael Wacha had a terrific appearance vs the Boston Red Sox last week. Speculators imagine that Lester, the name-brand starter of the pair, will find his best form again as a matter of course in what’s been a roller-coaster campaign. But they’re missing the point – even if Lester pitches as well as Wacha is currently throwing the bean, Tampa Bay has the better offense and the superior team and could win easily regardless. If the visiting hurler has the edge, then so much the better for the visitors’ (-117) moneyline.

Pick: Rays 

Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros

Yet another falling O/U total gives WagerBop readers a chance at a “modern” fade-the-public gambit, in which trendy wagers are viewed with skepticism and often bet-against with confidence even if the lines are not moving in a classic direction, such as higher on the O/U. Baltimore has embarrassed Houston with 2 straight victories, but neither team is planning the kind of pitch count from a strikeout king that would make the Astros’ likely revenge into a 3-2 kind of affair. 12-5 is more likely, since it’s not a matter of Houston’s defense playing gritty-enough baseball, but batter vs pitcher dynamics that have the series full of fireworks.

Pick: Over (9.5) 

6/29/21

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox

Okay, so the Daily Double is almost as obsessed with Midwestern ballclubs as ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball producers. But it’s noteworthy that while Tuesday night’s MLB slate is full of popular favorites ATS and on the moneyline, the Minnesota Twins are drawing solid action at plus-odds to defeat the Chicago White Sox in a series opener at Guaranteed Rate Field. So much so that the ChiSox ML market, which opened around 1/1.4 odds, is being pulled closer to 1-to-1 at various offshore books.

Bettors think the Twins are coming around after a lousy spring. Still, the hosts appear to be an excellent % pick due to several promising angles instead of a single factor. Visiting starter Kenta Maeda is looking pretty good, but host hurler Lucas Giolito is putting-out more batters at the plate. Minnesota has indeed improved its record lately, but Chicago has the far superior record, and is threatening to snap out of a brief swoon after staving-off sweep attempts in 2 consecutive series.

Pick: White Sox 

Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics

There’s a saying in American pigskin that the hardest thing to do is to beat a team you’ve already beaten once. Perhaps in hardball, there’s nothing more difficult than being out-matched against a club you’ve recently drawn a series with. Your side isn’t holding a grudge based on a 2-2 tie. But theirs knows it can do better next time, and is hungry to prove it.

Take the Athletics vs Rangers series, a rematch of a 4-game meeting from last week in which the Lone Stars were able to win twice and keep Oakland’s bats relatively quiet in 3 out of 4 ballgames. Oakland is (-180) on the moneyline and (+110) on a (-1.5) favorite’s Run Line for Tuesday, the latter bet not a great gambit on principle since Texas has winning records ATS and vs the O/U number on the road this season.

But almost any gambling strategy can work given the proper timing, tactics, and analysis. The Texas Rangers are in last place while the Oakland Athletics contend for 1st, and the excellent James Kaprielian is scheduled to start for Oakland following a hard-luck loss to Texas in his last outing. The hosts will be psychologically primed to rally for insurance runs, a key factor in turning a plus-odds Run Line into a plus-50% payoff scenario.

Pick: Athletics Run Line (-1.5) (+110) 

6/28/21

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers

The intuitive Monday night sides-bet would be a wager on the Chicago Cubs as a (+120) moneyline underdog, at least now that frantic action on the low-side of the O/U total has plunged the latter line to (7.5) runs. Chicago’s loss to Los Angeles on Sunday could be chalked up to miserable pitching, something that shouldn’t be an issue with Kyle Hendricks taking the rubber in Monday’s series-opener at Milwaukee. But sloppy Cubs fielding characterized Sunday’s blow-out defeat as much as the Dodgers’ electric offense, and the Brew Crew appears to have finally gained enough momentum to put a real hot streak together in early summer. Probable host hurler Freddy Peralta has fanned 16 batters in his last 2 outings, including a 7-inning stint against the hot-hitting Cincinnati Reds.

Pick: Brewers 

San Francisco Giants at L.A. Dodgers

Monday night’s MLB betting markets are marked by extreme O/U line movement, including a number of lines that have fallen so drastically, you’d think there had been a 7-innings-only announcement such as typical for the back-end of a COVID-era doubleheader. Instead, the falling (7.5) number on a Dodgers vs Giants opener is a product of fans’ excitement over starting hurlers Anthony DeSclafani and Trevor Bauer. As we’ve discussed often in 2021, “fading the public” on the high side of a falling Over/Under total is an unorthodox move. But if the shoe fits, dress the Bums in it – each team is generating rallies and slugging RBIs against strong and fair pitching alike, as the Dodger offense begins to purr, and Gigantes batters earn San Francisco a new reputation for balance.

Pick: Over 

6/27/21

Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox

It’s been high time to look at the Chicago White Sox again, a team with such a high ceiling of performance that wagers can be won simply by predicting when the ChiSox will be in solid form. But “solid form” doesn’t describe Tony LaRussa’s club over the last week, as the upstarts face a potential swoon that could help Cleveland ratchet into 1st place in the AL Central division. You wouldn’t expect Chicago to be a (+105) “underdog” against a (-1.5) spread with Dallas Kuechel on the mound against 1-4 Marco Gonzales this Sunday afternoon, but Seattle won the opener 9-3 as a surprisingly dangerous batting team on the road. While it’s tempting to take plus-odds on the White Sox to rebound in a big way, the superior wager is O(8.5) as injuries limit pitching options for both clubs.

Pick: Over 

Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers

The St. Louis Cardinals will not be participating in Sunday Night Baseball this weekend, an historic occasion for sure. But don’t think the brand could get rid of the NL Central that easy. This week it’s the Chicago Cubs (if it can’t be the Cardinals, dammit, ESPN will air their blood rivals!) taking on the defending World Series champions at Dodger Stadium.

Once again, the favorites’ Run Line (-1.5) (-120) is held at 1/1 payoff odds by a hesitancy to trust the superior team. L.A. barely took a 2-1 lead in the series on Saturday in a ballgame that was tied going into the 9th inning, and Sunday’s probable pitcher Clayton Kershaw has lost 2 in a row.

However, the star hurler has been a hard-luck case with little support from big bats since opening the season 8-5. Chicago is striking out too often in away games, and it won’t be surprising if Kershaw approaches 10+ Ks.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line 

6/26/21

Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds

Bookmakers cave to trends occasionally, not just gamblers. Trying to anticipate where the public will land on a given “community prediction” is as crucial to balancing lines as handicapping the ballgame itself. Las Vegas professionals suggested a (9) run O/U total for the 3rd of 4 games between Cincinnati and visiting Atlanta on Saturday, a reasonable number given an unpredictable Castillo vs Anderson match-up on the mound. But at least 1 prominent online sportsbook (BetNow) is offering (8.5), believing that MLB speculators will be tempted by trends such as Atlanta’s 4-of-5 streak of “Under” outcomes, or the low-scoring outcomes of the 2 prior games.

That could be a mistake, since good pitching isn’t what has the Reds in contention in the NL Central. The club would be well below .500 were it not for an offense that’s producing 6 runs per game at home, and yet Cincinnati’s pitching and defense are allowing a healthy number of runs to guest batting lineups. There’s bound to be at least 1 or 2 high-scoring ballgames in the current series, and Saturday afternoon’s expected dampness and crosswind at Great American Ball Park might do as much to confuse fielders and propel extra base-hits as to tamp down fly balls.

Pick: Over (8.5) 

Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants

Las Vegas is also guilty of overlooking the weather forecast for the 2nd game of San Francisco vs Oakland at Oracle Park on Saturday night. Benign outcomes like Friday’s 2-0 opener and Oakland’s low-key finale with Texas are steering the public toward low-side bets, and bookmakers are happy to balance-out odds at (-110) on either side of O/U (8). There’s arguments in favor of both batting orders and starting pitchers, with Alex Wood gunning for a 7-3 season start and visiting Frankie Montas posing an unfamiliar challenge for Gigantes. While each hurler has had blow-up innings in recent contests, Sin City’s not wrong not to overreact.

The tipping-point angle is a forecasted 15-20 MPH wind blowing straight toward the center field wall, which threatens to make San Francisco into a slugger’s paradise for a change, even if it’s back to small-ball on Sunday.

Pick: Over 

6/25/21

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals

Friday’s MLB moneylines and Run Line odds, or “sides” markets, are all but devoid of sharp line movement as of Thursday night. While there’s at least 1 O/U market with a rising number, perhaps casual totals-bettors should take a page from the W/L speculators and settle down. At long last, the natural inclination to “cheer for runs” is overtaking the public’s newfound appreciation for low-side O/U picks during the regular seasons of major sports, and totals are rising when they shouldn’t.

Yes, the Pittsburgh Pirates punished the sagging St. Louis Cardinals 8-2 on Thursday, taking a 1-0 lead in a series that the Redbirds badly need to win to get back on track. Bryan Reynolds was a thorn in the side of the Cardinals’ overwhelmed staff, and Las Vegas doesn’t seem all that confident in Kwang Hyun-Kim to hold the fort on Friday, also reflected in the rising (9) run total.

But there are reasons why Cardinal ballgames are way under .500 vs the O/U number at Busch Stadium, while the Pirates haven’t helped produce many Over-results on the road. Offense is a challenge for both clubs at the moment, and with Buccos hurler Will Crowe’s recent improvement belying his season stat line (and his ironic tendency not to brag loudly), methodical pitching should be enough to keep NL Central bats quiet on yet another night.

Pick: Under 

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

A question about Las Vegas and lopsided MLB match-ups that occasionally gets asked on Daily Double – “which favorite’s line?” – almost answers itself for Friday’s nightcap between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks. At press time, sharks were just beginning to shorten the Padres’ generous (-130) (-1.5) Run Line compared to the super-juiced (-275) number on a host win by any score. We’ve witnessed teams rebound from massive slumps to take down favorites or at least cover against-the-spread in 2021 ballgames, but Arizona takes the cake among the clubs headed for the tank this season, with a sub-.050 winning % over the last 3 weeks and yet another unpromising option on the mound in 0-2 starter Corbin Martin. San Diego isn’t the ultimate (-1.5) pick as a ballclub that relies on pitching and defense, but we’re predicting that a competent, talented, tough team with a huge motivation edge will seal the deal 6-8 innings into the contest.

Pick: Padres Run Line (-1.5) 

WagerBop’s Weekend AL and NL Power Rankings

Please enjoy a Daily Double “extra” – MLB rankings from our chief scout Jake Peter!

Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers

There’s a quieter Thursday afternoon MLB schedule than there was on Wednesday, and little line-movement to speak of on Thursday’s early ballgames. It makes sense – if people are planning to miss a sporting event, why gamble on it. But the lack of action-prompted odds shifting could be a blessing, if the scenario arises that the bookmaker makes a mistake.

It looks like a few sharks have picked-up on Oakland’s (+101) (-1.5) Run Line, “underdog” odds for a likely outcome. With a solid, even pitching match-up and Texas’ home woes to counter any crowd/momentum advantages, the Athletics are simply more than “1.5 runs” better than the Rangers. The visitors also badly need Thursday’s win to even the series 2-2 (nobody said the 2-run underdog isn’t dangerous over a short sample-size) after having a solid streak flummoxed by the Yankees.

Pick: Athletics Run Line (-1.5) 

Chicago Cubs at L.A. Dodgers

Speaking of Run Line wagers, everyone’s favorite underdog RL of Thursday night appears to be Cleveland (+1.5) (-130), but the juiced odds on the Indians ATS create a sucker’s line that will only pay off if the visitors are fortunate in Minnesota. Probable pitcher J.C. Mejia has been getting blown out of the box by NL Central offenses, and it’s not as if the Tribe is a hot ballclub. In fact, Minnesota is arguably playing a little better ball, having swept the last 3+ game series the Twins played in.

Chicago offers a lot better investment as a ‘dog ATS, offered at a tasty (+105) that the betting public seems hesitant to move on. Walker “No Ben Stein Please” Buehler is starting for the host L.A. Dodgers and hasn’t lost yet this season, but doesn’t need to take an L for the Cubs to cover on the Run Line.

Probable pitcher Zach Davies was playing well for the Cubbies until getting tired against the Marlins last weekend. Albert Pujols hit into a double play to end a disappointing Dodger loss to San Diego on Wednesday, casting doubt on L.A.’s mid-season form once again.

Pick: Cubs Run Line (+1.5) 

6/23/21

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

Ole, ole! Me mind on fire. Me soul on fire. Feeling hot, hot, hot. WagerBop’s Daily Double is double-digit Ws above .500 in less than 3 weeks’ time, officially the website’s hottest MLB prediction streak since the column’s epic comeback late last season.

What prompts a hot streak at the sportsbook when a speculator has not changed her process, or spent extra time scouting and investigating? My pet theory is that any logical handicap of a ballgame’s crucial angles technically always should bear-out in the outcome with a high-% chance to win the prediction and the wager in the end. Strong predictions lose when unknowable, unlucky, and unexpected factors affect the scoreboard. Like the weather, “chaos” agents can come in waves, cycles, and the occasional thunderbolt. When the storm of foul fortune subsides, and skies are clear, the winning streak happens naturally. Less chaos is getting in the way.

It’s challenging to identify the #1 important angle (and avoid chaos) at Tropicana Field on Wednesday, at least at a glance. Tampa Bay’s in the awkward position of fighting for 1st while in midst of a slump, and Boston batters like Hunter Renfroe and Xander Bogarts feasted on an aimless Tampa Bay pitching staff in Tuesday’s opener. Sin City likes the Rays (-145) to snap back behind popular veteran hurler Rich Hill, but refuses to juice the hosts’ Run Line (-1.5) (+135).

The O/U total (8.5) is an intriguing market, since a trend of offense in the rivalry would need a collection of forces to slow it down. The Rays and Red Sox are routinely producing 12+ runs in 9-inning meetings, and Boston is pretty healthy at the plate while Tampa Bay’s injuries, somewhat ominously, are almost 100% in the pitching stable. Hill is likely to pitch 4-5 frames.

Pick: Over 

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

Not so surprisingly, the L.A. Dodgers aren’t quite as trendy a ticket for the betting public in late June, following a blitz of hype for a beefed-up batting order earlier this month. The Bums have been upset by the Philadelphia Phillies and lately the San Diego Padres, who’ve ensured a series win at Petco Park with victories over visiting L.A. on Monday and Tuesday. As is often the case, pitching and defense are the narrative in Navy-ville. The Pads have put out some nice offense, including Manny Machado’s mash in the opening frame of the 2nd contest, which ended in a 6-2 triumph. But fittingly, Machado’s fine defense became another big headline from late in Tuesday’s ballgame. San Diego and L.A. carry matching (-110) moneylines into the closer on Wednesday night, with a vaunted match-up of Musgrove vs Bauer keeping the O/U at (7) runs.

Cody Bellinger could play in the series closer, but any momentum boost for the Dodgers on behalf of a clubhouse working to avoid a sweep-against could be tempered by the Padres’ great desire to earn a sweep in front of a growing cast of Pads-partisans in the stands at Petco. However, if the game is hard-fought and tight on the scoreboard, the Padres may not have an answer for the improving depth of the Dodger lineup. San Diego’s injury woes aren’t going anywhere fast.

Pick: Dodgers 

6/22/21

Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees

Whew-eee! ‘Twas a crying shame to break-up WagerBop’s lovely momentum in recent MLB predictions, with a 12-and-4 stretch now marred by the total lack of recommendations for Monday’s ballgames. But there’s no point trying to make accurate picks with a flu-addled brain. (No, in case you’re wondering, vaccinated sports writers don’t tend to catch or give away the coronavirus, nor is COVID-19 likely to A) last exactly 36 hours or B) produce a gastric bubble that could melt Rob Halford’s vocal chords.)

New York hurler Gerrit Cole is used to giving opposing batters heartburn, but Cole is also among the most scrutinized players in Major League Baseball this week due to MLB’s brand new in-game policy of searching pitchers for spin-affecting substances. Early reports of starting Ps suffering major injury due to changing their grips to cope with the crack-down can only serve to make the Pinstripes hesitant to pitch Cole for more than 4-5 innings in his planned start on Tuesday evening. That’s good news for the Kansas City Royals, who are a popular underdog bet at 2.25 to 1 odds, but who have failed to inspire a shift in KC’s (+115) Run Line.

Run Line speculation gauges how likely an underdog is to hang around on the scoreboard, while the moneyline is all about winning. The gambling public believes it’ll be a feast-or-famine scenario for the Kansas City offense with New York facing an almost unprecedented situation, and that Cole will either give up a million runs or none at all through 7-8 innings. Such a “casino” element causes surprise outcomes about half of the time, making a steep underdog seem like the obvious play based on risk-reward.

Frankly, that sort of thinking betrays a real lack of perspective. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the New York Yankees are 250,000 times more likely to care about limiting Cole’s pitch count vs the Royals and keeping a precious commodity nice and healthy than squeezing an extra 15 fastballs out of the anxious hurler on Tuesday. Kansas City will probably score runs here and there against a distracted Cole and a well-taxed stable of host relievers, and Yankee Nation is prepared to win ugly after a trying spring.

Pick: Royals (+1.5) 

Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners

The Colorado Rockies are another tempting ATS pick for Tuesday at not-so-juiced (-142) on the underdog Run Line. Rox batters woke up as predicted in a thrilling, tight series with Milwaukee at Coors Field, and some handicappers are hoping that maybe, just maybe, this is the time for Colorado to carry its momentum away from home. The National League club has covered Run Lines for a week running.

But outstanding turn-arounds require a number of ingredients, and the underdogs are facing a pitching mismatch that doesn’t cling in conjunction with “percentage pick ATS.” Rox probable P Kyle Freeland is giving batters a free hand. Conversely, host starter Chris Flexen’s name can be added to a long list of MLB players who’ve improved since spending a short stint overseas.

Pick: Mariners 

6/21/21

Update 6/21: Due to the author’s illness, Daily Double will be shelved for a day and is set to return on Tuesday, June 22.

(Don’t worry ‘boppers, it’s called the “24-hour bug” for a reason.)

6/20/21

New York Mets at Washington Nationals

The New York Metropolitans are a popular moneyline wager for Sunday afternoon’s series closer with Washington, and it’s easy to see why when analyzing superficially. NY has the better W/L record, and probable Mets starter Taijuan Walker not only has a much better 2021 stat line than opposing Patrick “Colossus: The Corbin Project” Corbin, but has had the better form over the pair’s recent appearances.

I’m taking the hosts against-the-public at generous (+114) odds. Corbin was excellent in a start 5 days ago vs Pittsburgh, and the Mets’ offense truthfully isn’t much more explosive than that of the Buccos. Washington has a chance to win the series 3-1 and has won 7 of its last 9 ballgames.

Pick: Nationals or Nationals (+1.5) 

St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves

Update: The numbers were finally coughed out of Sin City, of course, and gamblers appear to like the Braves’ shrinking (-122) moneyline, but with Drew Smyly and Kwang Hyun-Kim scheduled to start on the mound, we’re looking at Over (7.5) even though the contest is scheduled for just 7 innings.

Pick: Over 

It’s hard to publish our weekly SNB pick without odds, lines, or an opening Las Vegas consensus, but that’s Daily Double‘s dilemma as of late Saturday night.

Check this URL by early afternoon on game-day for fresh betting numbers and a Sunday Night Baseball prediction on the moneyline, Run Line, or Over/Under run total.

6/19/21

Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies

WagerBop takes no sadistic pleasure in accurately calling the Brew Crew unprepared for what was to come in Denver this week. Colorado’s batting order is simply a different bunch when playing in the thin air of home, and a suddenly-awake offense is giving the 0-2 series visitors fits. Bookmakers opened wagers on the 3rd of 4 games with a cautious (+115) line on the Rockies, but the odds have evened at (-110) as gamblers ponder a surprisingly evenly-matched pair of ballclubs.

Who’s the better side at even numbers? Milwaukee is an understandable pick as the team with a far-superior record and infinitely fatter chances in the National League pennant race. Friday’s ballgame went into extra innings and nearly ended with the series tied 1-1.

But the pitching match-up doesn’t ode well for a turnaround on Saturday, with 4-5 Adrian Houser going-up against Austin Gomber of the Rox, who was already hurling lights-out prior to Colorado’s team-wide uptick.

Pick: Rockies

Detroit Tigers at L.A. Angels

We’ve seen scenarios this season where the Run Line was a better pick than the favorites’ moneyline, but the ML shrinks anyway while the Run Line stays put at 1-1 payoff odds. It’s happening again with the Los Angeles Angels’ next game vs the Detroit Tigers on Saturday.

Detroit is trotting-out veteran relief pitcher Willy Peralta, who’s been holding about a 3.00 ERA in the minor leagues. Though I’m not convinced the Halos will blow Peralta off the mound immediately, he never had great stamina as a part-time starter in his past MLB career, and shouldn’t last past the 4th inning. L.A.’s bats have been alive through a roller coaster of good and bad series, and Detroit’s injuries could prevent the Tigers from challenging the Angels late in the 3rd ballgame of an already 0-2 meeting for the visitors, even if it’s a close score or a slim Motor City lead at some point between innings 3 and 6.

Pick: Angels (-1.5) (-110) 

6/18/21

Cleveland Indians at Pittsburgh Pirates

We’ve had some success identifying live MLB underdogs this week, but discovering which favorites are truly solid can be just as challenging. Cleveland (-150) comes into a series at Pittsburgh as only a modest minus-odds pick for Friday’s opener, despite the Pirates’ status as a dreadful club that hasn’t won a game since June 5th.

Why? For a start, the Indians haven’t been a marvelous ballclub on the road, as evidenced by the Tribe dropping a 3-game series at Baltimore earlier this month with a 13-run loss in the rubber match. Friday’s probable visiting pitcher J.C. Mejia hasn’t been able to stay on the mound for very long in recent appearances.

But opposing Chad Kuhl of the Buccos has been far worse, and Cleveland is coming in hot after taking revenge on Baltimore with a 4-game sweep. Pittsburgh’s losing skid may well end before Arizona’s does, but it isn’t likely to happen under the circumstances at hand.

Pick: Indians 

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros

An even simpler handicap applies to Friday’s marquee game between Houston and the ChiSox, a game with an (8.5) run total as strong lineups meet outstanding hurlers in Luis Garcia and Carlos Rodon. Ordinarily a high-side totals pick would make sense, as the clubs will play in a warm, calm setting friendly to big bats. But a series opener embarrassed Chicago 10-2 on Thursday, and Tony LaRussa will look to orchestrate a quieter road contest in which the White Sox can take a comfortable lead without having to score 8+ runs on Garcia.

Pick: Under 

MLB Power Rankings 6/18/21

National League

1 – Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are in second place in the NL at 41-27, but they haven’t lived up to many fans’ lofty expectations. Injuries to Corey Seager and Max Muncy haven’t helped, but L.A.’s stacked roster led many to believe they would have a much more dominant start to their season. The Dodgers’ pitching staff has performed well, though, earning the third best ERA in the NL at 3.20 and the second-most saves with 24. Star right fielder Mookie Betts, who’s only hitting .253 right now, may need to improve his play to give his team an offensive jolt.

2 – New York Mets

The New York Mets’ postseason woes may be behind them. The team is in third place in the NL at 35-25, and they’ve won 8 of their last 10. Their offense leads the NL in strikeouts and hasn’t been particularly strong with the exception of first baseman Pete Alonso, who has 10 homers and 34 RBIs. It’s New York’s pitching that has been notable, with the starters earning the best ERA in the NL at 3.12 while allowing the fewest hits, home runs, and walks. Jacob deGrom is having a historically great year with his 0.54 ERA and 111 strikeouts through 11 starts.

3 – Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have long had the talent to threaten the MLB’s best, and it appears as though they’re harnessing it for the first time since they won the World Series in 2016. Chicago sits in fourth place in the NL at 38-30, and they’re 24-10 at home this season. Infielder Kris Bryant has continued his offensive tear of late, and he now has 13 homers and 39 RBIs to go along with a .292 batting average. Chicago ranks third in homers and fourth in stolen bases in the NL.

4 – San Francisco Giants

Nobody could have expected the San Francisco Giants to own the best record in the NL this season, but they have earned that honor so far. The team sits atop the league at 43-25, and they’re an impressive 21-9 at home. 7 of San Francisco’s 8 starters are 30 or older, yet they lead the NL in home runs and rank third in on-base percentage. The ageless Buster Posey hasn’t slowed down either, accumulating 12 homers and 26 RBI’s while hitting a stellar .337.

5 – Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers may fly below the radar, but their 38-30 record is good enough for fifth in the NL at the moment. The team’s offense has been unspectacular, though, and Kolten Wong and Travis Shaw’s injuries have not done the team any favors. Fortunately, Milwaukee’s starters have stepped up. In particular, Freddy Peralta is 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA and Brandon Woodruff is 5-2 with a 1.52 ERA. The Brewers also rank second in the NL in strikeouts with 705

American League Power Rankings

1 – Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox are rolling. They’re 43-25, and they’ve won 8 of their last 10 games. Despite injuries to Nick Madrigal and Luis Robert, Chicago still ranks fourth in the AL in batting average and second in on-base percentage.

Shortstop Tim Anderson has continued to contribute in all facets of the game, batting .313 and totaling 25 RBIs and 13 stolen bases so far.

2 – Boston Red Sox

Don’t look now, but the Boston Red Sox are still well on their way to a surprise playoff berth. Their 42-27 record has them in fourth place in the AL, and they’re an impressive 22-10 on the road this season. Boston owes much of their success to their stacked offense, which currently ranks second in hits and runs scored in the AL. Young third baseman Rafael Devers is en route to another career year with a .283 batting average and 16 homers and 55 RBIs to date.

3 – Houston Astros

The Astros may still invoke the ire of many MLB fans, but that hasn’t stopped them from putting together a special 2021 campaign. Houston is in fifth place in the AL at 39-28, and they’ve won 7 of their last 10. Though most of the Astros’ starters have turned in mixed results through the first half of the season, ace Zack Greinke has shined. He currently owns a 7-2 record and a 3.74 ERA through 15 starts.

4 – Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays may not garner a lot of media buzz, but they’re quietly in the midst of yet another remarkable regular season. Tampa is second in the AL with a 43-26 record, and they’re challenging the White Sox for the top spot. Unsurprisingly, it’s been the Rays’ defense that has carried them during this hot start. The team’s 3.24 team ERA is second in the AL, and their 22 saves ranks first in the league. Ace Tyler Glasnow just hit the injured list, however, so that may slow the Rays down.

5 – Oakland Athletics

Like the Rays, the Athletics have had a successful start to their season without much fanfare. The team is currently in third in the AL with a 43-27 record, and they’ve won six straight. And, like Tampa, the A’s have mostly relied on their defense to carry the load.

Chris Bassitt has turned in a 7-2 record, a 3.43 ERA, and 91 strikeouts, and starter Sean Manaea is 6-2 with a 2.99 ERA. Those two have provided a deadly one-two punch so far for Oakland.

6/17/21

Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies

Drat! Daily Double nearly pulled off a double-delivery on MLB underdog lines yesterday, predicting Philadelphia’s 2-0 upset of the L.A. Dodgers, but losing a Toronto-over-New York Yankees pick when the Bronx Bombers slipped ahead in the 7th inning for a 3-2 comeback win. Thankfully, we’ve already found generous odds on another live underdog this Thursday night, when the Milwaukee Brewers visit the Colorado Rockies in a series opener.

Colorado’s road offense is hapless. But the Rockies know how to play in the thin air of Coors Field, and proved it by whipping the San Diego Padres in 3 straight ballgames this week. Milwaukee (-164) looks solid with a start from Brandon Woodruff on the ledger, opposing German Marquez of the Rox who was shivered by Cincy for 8 earned runs in his last outing. But the host hurler had begun to put his form together prior to that mess, and the Brewers’ methodical style will be put to the test with wind blowing out of the park. Milwaukee isn’t a phantom favorite, but things could get complicated, especially once Woodruff’s night is over.

Picks: Rockies Run Line (+1.5) and Over (10) 

Detroit Tigers at L.A. Angels

Another “reverse”-classic fade-the-public scenario presents itself in SoCal on Thursday night, with a ballgame for which gamblers appear too giddily hyped-up about a pair of pitchers, at least 1 of whom has little experience at the MLB level.

Under (9) opened as an extremely-popular pick, with scheduled starts from Shohei Ohtani and worthy newcomer Matt Manning. But look at the fine print and Ohtani has been allowing runs consistently, as a methodical pitcher who cannot simply overwhelm every batter in all circumstances. Nor was his heralded stamina on display following 6 days’ rest in a 5-inning appearance on 6/11. It all comes down to Manning’s performance when handicapping a totals bet, and the funny thing is that the Halos wouldn’t be a 1-to-2 moneyline bet or a 1-to-1 Run Line bet if sharks really thought Manning was about to take the league by storm. We’ve seen a lot of prospect hurlers get blown out of the box by 75% lineups in 2021.

The ballgame’s O/U has dropped to (8.5) at at least 1 sportsbook already, giving “fade the public” style hardball gamblers the opportunity to cheer for offense for a change.

Pick: Over 

6/16/21

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Your favorite MLB handicapper will be first to admit the truth about Daily Double‘s mediocre, even losing W/L records through patches of 2020 and 2021. But the column must be given credit from another angle – our hot streaks tend to be nuclear-hot.

Daily Double is a perfect 6-0 since last Saturday, including a pair of plus-odds underdog wagers that cashed-in. Rather than try to protect the W streak with safe predictions on minus-payoff lines, we’ll try to go to 7-0 on recent 1-to-1 market picks while also pausing to recommend a live underdog for Wednesday evening in which to carefully invest some well-earned stake.

But who’s the barking ‘dog on the board? Detroit won its opening 2 games in KC, making the Royals a motivated mid-week favorite in the series closer. Arizona fought like hell in Tuesday night’s 9-8 loss to San Francisco, but the Diamondbacks’ pitching is so bad that it’s hard to imagine the club snapping its extended losing streak in any kind of predictable fashion.

Here’s a vote for the Toronto Blue Jays, a (+150) underdog hosting the New York Yankees for the 2nd of 3 ballgames. Toronto has played better baseball than the Yanks as of late, as the latter team faces another slump much like the spring swoon that drew heavy criticism. The Blue Jays are a quality batting team against right-handed hurlers like Garrit Cole, who must deal with the distraction of MLB’s “sticky stuff” controversy.

Pick: Blue Jays (+150)

Philadelphia Phillies at L.A. Dodgers

Okay, nevermind the plan about selecting a “1-to-1” market for today’s 2nd pick. Neither of Philadelphia’s main-market “pick a team/side” bets for a Wednesday series closer with the L.A. Dodgers are at close to 1/1 payoff odds, but the Phils are as intriguing of a moneyline underdog as a (+1.5) “favorite.”

Yes, L.A. began the series getting the best of Philly. But extract the star-adulation factor from the Bums’ probable pitcher in the upcoming game (C…C…Clayton K..Kershaw!) and Philadelphia’s planned starter Zack Wheeler has actually looked better than Kershaw when comparing the pair’s recent appearances. The Phillies have about half the injury woes of the Dodgers and should continue to fight hard in a series that’s well-matched, given of-course the caveat of L.A.’s preparation for a potentially dominant stretch run and the frustration of famed Dodger hurlers trying to conjure their best stuff on the mound by August.

Pick: Phillies Run Line (+1.5) 

6/15/21

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

Given the circumstances of Tuesday’s series opener in Kansas City, it’s a surprise that the slightly-favored Royals (-135) aren’t getting more high-roller action on a (+136) Run Line. But that doesn’t mean that the (-1.5) market is the right gamble.

KC is the team that might be contending were it not for a single, terrible losing streak early in spring, but if the outcomes of the past week continue, you can add “and the June slump” to the Royals’ list of regrets. A start from Mike Minor is reason enough to think the pain could be salved on Tuesday, but a better reason is the competition (or lack thereof) in town. Detroit is losing just as many outings in June, has a dreadful road record, and is bad as an underdog in 2021 – bad news for a team that’s often the ‘dog.

The low-side of a surprising (9) O/U total is a safer pick than either side. Yes, we’re to the time of year when sample-sizes are large enough to give team stats added credence, and the Royals’ offense is actually pretty good at home from a wide POV. But betting on a single outcome is about the here and now, and struggling Tigers and Royals have combined for 15 runs-scored in their last 6 ballgames.

Pick: Under 

Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners

It’s typically not a bad idea to set cautious O/U lines for meetings of downtrodden baseball clubs. But the (8.5) line set for Minnesota at Seattle on Tuesday night is too low. Minnesota’s bats haven’t been the Twins’ main issue on the road, as the team’s games have beaten the Over/Under line 40 out of 65 times this season. Starting host-hurler Chris Flexen has good stamina, but like opposing J.A. Happ, he’s been coughing-up RBIs.

Pick: Over 

6/14/21

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

The Cincinnati Reds have won a lot of ballgames in late spring for a club still mired in 3rd place of a winnable division. Cincy’s “treadmill” hot streak includes 2 series-sweeps and 4 wins in the last 5 outings, but the Reds are just barely ahead of the slumping St. Louis Cardinals and 5 games back of the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers, the latter of which begins a 3-game meeting with Cincinnati on Monday night.

Brew Crew moneyline and Run Line odds are shrinking fast, which (to the uninitiated means) a majority thinks Milwaukee will win the series opener, perhaps by a bundle of runs. Gamblers are jumping on what they see as a mistaken Las Vegas handicap, with the “inferior” Reds opening as a (+110) wager and swelling to (+132) soon after betting opened.

This prognosticator’s vote is firmly against the public. Cincinnati didn’t have a great spring campaign, but the crucial angle here is that the Reds have been as dangerous as the Brewers for close to 2 weeks running. Vladimir Gutierrez had a terrific start against the Brewers on 6/9 and is poised to continue to improve thru 5+ innings on Monday, while opposing Eric Lauer has lost in 2 of his last 3 starts.

Pick: Reds 

Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals

It looks like the Arch-front could be the latest scene of an MLB legacy club in a deep swoon. St. Louis was swept in 3 games by the Chicago Cubs to lose its 7th, 8th, and 9th games in just 10 appearances, including the Cardinals’ latest discouraging defeat, a 2-0 loss on Sunday Night Baseball in which the visitors to Wrigley Field only managed a pair of hits and could have been beaten a lot worse.

Nevertheless, the homecoming Redbirds are a (-154) favorite to beat the Miami Marlins in Monday night’s series opener, thanks to a start from Adam Wainwright and a soft spot in Miami’s pitching rotation that could have made Monday a bullpen day (or a bullpen evening as it were) until Don Mattingly decided on Braxton Garrett, a prospect P who was awful in a single 2021 performance to-date, to oppose Wainwright.

Lines are 1 thing, but the odds-makers are getting this ballgame’s angles Isan Diazzz-backward with formulaic payoffs on SU and (-1.5) St. Louis markets. Wainwright is a hometown hero but he’s also 4-5 this season and prone to off-nights. It’s certainly a 65-75% proposition that the Cardinals will win with even a fading ace-type hurler against a struggling neophyte, but the home team is likely to either feast early and snap-out of its slump or (less likely but possibly) simply lose another contest. The chances of the Cardinals keeping their nerve through 10 tight innings to win 7-6 is far lessened under the circumstances, making the Run Line pick at a mispriced (+130) more valuable than the ML.

Pick: Cardinals Run Line (-1.5) 

6/13/21

Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks

When will Arizona’s miserable losing streak end? Diamondback batters produced a 5-0 lead on the L.A. Angels at Chase Field on Saturday, giving rise to hope that the skid would end within a couple of hours. But the Snakes let the lead dwindle away prior to a 3-run 9th delivering a KO for the Halos in what had to have been an agonizing outcome in the flesh. Still, the popular “home team defending vs sweep” angle has Los Angeles held close to a 1-to-1 moneyline bet for Sunday’s series closer, a ballgame with a (9.5) O/U run total.

Sin City might need to offer $5 on the dollar to get MLB speculators excited to bet on Jon Duplantier, the Snakes’ sabbath-day starter and owner of a 10+ ERA. “Mr. Duplicitous” is serving-up derby balls to eager sluggers, while at least the opposing Patrick Sandoval has had bright spots despite an 0-2 mark.

Rather than try to guess if motivation will be enough to lift Arizona and prevent a 10+ game losing streak, it’s smarter to find a gamble that will flourish if the Diamondbacks continue to fight like hell on offense in home games, but won’t fall to a bad beat if the allow more late runs and lose again.

Pick: Over 

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

The NL Central, and the Cardinals specifically, seem to be playing on Sunday Night Baseball so often that the rosters are liable to miss 8 weeks of NFL action. STL’s pitching stable has enough injuries to rival an NFL unit, while Chicago is running low on healthy catchers and 3rd basemen. But the teams have managed to play an exciting series so far, with the Cubs threatening a sweep with an early explosion on Saturday following an 8-5 win in the opener, and are drawing ML action at (-135) despite a slow uptake on announcing a starter.

All signs show that Zach Davies will step into the SNB pitching role, coming off a victory against a slightly-overrated San Diego batting order. Chicago’s pitching let the team down in a previous series vs San Francisco, keeping Cubbies fans on edge even as the club nips at 1st place following the west-coast swing.

But the Cardinals are known as a long-term thinking organization even as its fans howl for blood against rivals like the Cubs and Reds. Taking a 3-game sweep wouldn’t be the end of the world with the division still tightly bunched, and the Redbirds’ choice of Carlos Martinez on the mound exemplifies that. Martinez is 3-6 and has fared poorly enough as of late that Chicago’s 5-innings payoff should be (-250), yet ledgers still show Chicago’s moneyline hovering near 1/1 and a Run Line at fat (+125) odds.

Picks: Cubs, Cubs 5-Innings 

6/12/13

Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds

While the preceding week brought hectic line-movement on the MLB odds board, Saturday’s viewing public seems skeptical of all but a few teams’ prices. San Diego’s odds to beat the New York Mets are thinning with optimism, and the Boston Red Sox are a popular wager headed into a meeting with Toronto. However, the analyses for both ballgames are pretty inconclusive.

Better value can be found in Cincinnati, where the Reds are a less-popular, fattening (-127) ML to beat the visiting Colorado Rockies, in a game with a surprising (9) run Over/Under total. Neither probable pitcher, Wade Miley or German Marquez, has a grand stat line on the season. But each has been markedly solid and consistent in multiple recent appearances.

Cincy’s offense is on another level compared to Colorado’s meek batting away from Denver. In fact, Colorado’s road offense is so poor that the Reds could score 3-4 runs and still win on the Run Line without Miley hurling a classic.

Picks: Reds and Under

Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins

There are less-flaky MLB clubs to wager on than the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins of spring 2021. Minnesota has disappointed fans and sportsbook speculators alike over the season’s first 60+ games, Meanwhile, the Astros are just waiting for their next patsy to be swept by in a 3 or 4-game series.

Good news comes in small doses – the ‘Stros already beat the Twins in an opener on Friday and are a 1-to-1 wager for Saturday night’s follow-up.

The low-side of a (9.5) run Las Vegas total is tempting enough, given that probable Ps Jose Berrios and Luis Garcia are in confident form, and because each starting hurler has the stamina to help the Twins and Astros work around injuries in the bullpen.

But each batting lineup is on a relative hot streak – Minnesota and Houston are scoring runs consistently win-or-lose. The side is a lot higher-percentage play, since the formula of comparable starters + disparate teams usually works out with the better club finding a way to prevail. The Houston Astros may be hard to predict this year, but there’s no arguing that the ‘Stros haven’t looked a million times more promising than the Twins.

Pick: Astros

6/11/21

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

MLB speculators tend to ignore trends only when less-heralded clubs are involved in the betting angle. Far be it from a respectable baseball shark to miss a narrative on the New York Yankees, but the Yanks (or Yahoos) who set sportsbook odds on the Miami Marlins-Atlanta Braves opener this Friday night could be guilty of assuming that a marked change is mere statistical noise when it comes to an underdog that shook-up the majors in 2020.

Miami is a (+121) bet to win despite roaring to life from the plate on Thursday, swatting 3 massive home runs in the 2nd inning of a romp over Colorado. Improved opposition for the far-behind Fish is the basic story behind Atlanta’s (-135) line-to-win and near 1/1 odds giving (-1.5) on the Run Line. Charlie “Salt” Morton brings a 5-2 record into a road start in expected fine weather.

Host-starter Sandy Alcantara has quietly been as or more effective than Morton in the pair’s latest appearances, and there are a bunch of trends pointing to Run Line value on Miami. We’ve witnessed how modest-salaried clubs have played pretty good baseball in 2021 after emerging from terrible spring slumps, and the Marlins’ 3-2 record in 5 games qualifies as breaking a bugaboo. Atlanta has a losing record on the road, is plagued by an ugly scandal, and has given-up a ton of runs to the Fish in recent meetings.

Pick: Marlins Run Line (+1.5) (-145) 

Texas Rangers at L.A. Dodgers

Ka-Boom, or make that Ka-BUM. The Los Angeles Dodgers’ moneyline went bananas after opening at a cautious (-250) with Clayton Kershaw pitching against the dregs of the Lone Star rotation on Friday night, moving to (-330) in a blink. However, the (-1.5) Run Line on Los Angeles opened at just (-120), moving substantially but not critically further away from 1/1 with early action. Why the huge gap in a contest with a rising (8) run total?

It’s true that the Bums have played in their fair share of 1-run and 2-run ballgames this spring, but since mid-May the Dodgers have actually fared poorly in tight games, losing several 1 and 2-run contests in a row (not consecutively but as a sample) before finally managing to hold-off the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1 by playing expert defense on a bullpen-pitching day this week.

Each time the L.A. Dodgers of late spring ’21 win another ballgame, they tend to win it by a wide margin, making the Run Line vs moneyline gap even more of a mystery, or maybe just a bad price, given a favorite that’s coming home from a 4-2 road trip with an average margin-of-victory of exactly 2 runs.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line 

*WagerBop’s Weekly Weekend MLB Rankings*

Since we only look at 4 teams at a time at Daily Double, it seems like a good idea to begin updating MLB gamblers on the progress of many World Series contenders every so often. So, here’s a weekly top-10 rundown of Major League Baseball’s best, and a few notes on player performances and pennant-race position.

The worst thing any blog can do is begin a new ranking chart with a bunch of unorthodox, ill-fated choices, and daily Run Line bettors aren’t presently worried about the World Series anyway. Therefore, we’ll start by giving the major leagues’ top June W/L records the credit that they’re due, but don’t be surprised if the rankings begin shifting irrespective of minor fluctuations in MLB standings, as powerful teams prepare to take command in July and August.

1 – Los Angeles Dodgers

Some very, very good MLB teams take spring to recalibrate and recharge a lineup, but the Dodgers took early-season baseball seriously in 2021, and are poised at 2nd place in the NL with a 36-25 record. Star shortstop Corey Seager is missing time on the IL, but veteran infielders Justin Turner and Max Muncy have answered the bell and combined for a whopping 24 homers and 63 RBIs so far this year. The incomparable Mookie Betts is off to a less-than-stellar start, though, hitting just .250 and accumulating 5 homers and 21 RBIs. Walker Buehler has at least temporarily assumed the status of ace with a 7-0 record and a 2.56 ERA. The Dodgers’ 3.21 team ERA is third overall in the NL.

2 – Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay hasn’t missed a beat since falling just short in last season’s World Series. They currently sit atop the American League with a 39-24 record thanks to the same balanced attack that worked for the MLB’s bridesmaid in 2020. Ace hurler Tyler Glasnow is off to a solid start with a 5-2 record and a 2.57 ERA, and veteran addition Rich Hill is also 5-2 on the season.

On offense, DH Austin Meadows leads the team with 14 homers and 48 RBIs, and the ever-steady Ji-Man Choi has a team-high .304 batting average despite only having played 15 games due to injury. Joey Wendle, Yandy Diaz, and rising star Randy Arozarena have also contributed to the Rays’ promising campaign.

3 – Chicago White Sox

The White Sox aren’t far behind the Tampa Bay Rays, and they’re looking to make the postseason for the 2nd time in a row. Super-slugging José Abreu is once again leading the way with 11 home runs and 46 RBIs, and the fiery Tim Anderson has added 6 homers and 23 RBIs of his own while batting a stellar .302.

The “ChiSox” pitching stable is currently putting up the best numbers in the American League, giving the club even more upside for the pennant race to come in late summer and fall.

4 – San Francisco Giants

Surprising pundits, the San Francisco Giants have owned the NL so far this season, running-up a 38-23 record despite slumps on offense. Solid pitching, handy bats, and teamwork has allowed Gigantes to out-pace everyone, even the defending World Series-champion Dodgers, in the National League West.

Veterans are getting it done for San Francisco. Buster Posey is experiencing a late-career resurgence that has him hitting .336 and getting on base in 41% of his plate appearances. Though the 35-year-old veteran Evan Longoria has landed on the IL, he’s racked up 9 homers and 30 RBIs of his own while batting .280. Finally, 34-year-old shortstop Brandon Crawford has powered the Giants’ offense with14 homers and 41 RBIs. Giants opponents are getting taken to the yard, too. San Francisco is 10th in the NL in hits, but tops in homers with 90 so far. Star hurler Kevin Gausman has a spotless 7-0 record and an incredible 1.27 ERA through 12 starts.

5 – San Diego Padres

Pads’ offseason moves look like they’re paying dividends already. Superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. has racked up an impressive 17 homers and 39 RBIs while batting .277, and young Trent Grisham turned heads by hitting .301 before suffering an injury. San Diego ranks 3rd in the NL in hits and tops in steals. Yu Darvish has performed well as San Diego’s new ace, putting together a 6-2 record, 92 strikeouts, and a 2.28 ERA. He hasn’t gotten much help from the rest of the staff, though, who collectively own a 12-15 record. Still, San Diego’s average ERA of 2.96 is the top mark in the National League.

6 – Boston Red Sox

Fenway Park may not have quite as much star-power since the departure of Mookie Betts, but the Red Sox are still a formidable ball team, and signs show that Beantown baseball could be headed for better things in 2021 following a sour pandemic-era campaign. Boston’s pitching staff has given up 48 homers, the least in the AL.

Shortstop Xander Bogaerts and DH J.D. Martinez have shared top dog status on offense. Bogaerts is in the midst of yet another efficient campaign, batting .321 with 11 homers and 38 RBIs while Martinez is hitting .313 and has collected 12 homers and 39 RBIs. But it’s the young Rafael Devers who has really made a breakthrough for the Red Sox, contributing 15 homers and 48 RBIs through just over 1/3 of the season.

7 – Chicago Cubs

Chicago currently holds the fourth spot in the NL with a 35-27 record. Just 2 Cubs are hitting better than .250, but they’ve both had excellent starts to the 2021 season. Kris Bryant is leading the team with a .307 batting average and has collected 13 homers and 38 RBIs, and Anthony Rizzo has hit 6 homers and 26 RBIs while batting .263. Chicago ranks third in the NL with 82 home runs.

8 – Oakland Athletics

Another year, another Oakland A’s team that manages to put itself in playoff position despite a modest salary cap. 1st baseman Matt Olson hasn’t missed a beat, racking up 15 homers and 41 RBIs while hitting .276 so far. Veteran left fielder Mark Canha is right behind him with 11 homers and 25 RBIs, and the young center fielder Ramon Laureano has also made strides this season despite missing some time with injury. The A’s pitching staff has allowed the 2nd-least home runs and 2nd-least walks in the AL this season.

9 – Houston Astros

Houston hasn’t been a consistent favorite in 2021, but the ‘Stros know how to expose a weak pitching staff. 37-year-old Yuli Gurriel has put together the best campaign of his career for the Houston Astros this spring, with 8 homers, 43 RBIs and a .335 batting average. Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Michael Brantley are all hitting .290 or better. Houston currently leads the AL in runs, hits, batting average, and slugging percentage. Celebrated hurler Zack Greinke hasn’t disappointed either, getting off to a hot 6-2 start to go along with a 3.38 ERA.

10 – Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are one of the hottest teams in the MLB right now, having won 8 of their last 10 games. Milwaukee has had its fair share of injury issues this season, but the “Brew Crew” has emerged stronger than ever. Journeyman Avisail Garcia has surprisingly powered the team’s offense thus far, accumulating 12 homers and 35 RBIs. Milwaukee’s pitching staff hasn’t been elite in all respects, but they’ve done enough to keep their team in games. Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta have performed the best of the team’s starters, combining to go 10-3 in spring appearances.

6/10/21

Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins

Thursday’s MLB run-total markets are almost devoid of line-movement or shifting prices, but the same can’t be said for moneylines, which are expanding and melting like hail in a thunderstorm. Gamblers seem especially drawn to the Houston Astros, Oakland Athletics, and Miami Marlins, the latter of which is a 1/2 favorite and 1/1 Run Line pick against visiting Colorado in a southeastern twilight contest.

With Trevor Rogers pitching against Chi Chi Gonzalez, you’d almost expect Miami to be favored on a (-1.5) spread. Rogers hasn’t won a game, however, in weeks following an extremely-hot start. Miami has only split with the road-challenged Rox so far in the series, and needs a rubber match triumph to produce any semblance of comeback-momentum after taking 3 straight series-losses.

Of more interest to gamblers is that Miami is 13-13 at home, while the Colorado Rockies have less road wins than the 2020-21 New Orleans Saints despite nearly 30 cracks at host-opponents so far. Colorado’s batting is so poor away from Coors Field that Rogers doesn’t need positive reversion to get a W, while the Marlin batting order could actually be more talented in places than some of the ailing National League clubs Gonzalez has found recent success against from the mound.

Pick: Marlins (-1.5) 

Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics

With Oakland’s moneyline taking-on more juice than a grade school cafeteria, consider a bet on Over (8) total runs instead. Probable hurlers Frankie Montas and Mike Minor each appear vulnerable despite positive W/L records, a nearly 20 MPH wind is predicted to blow out of the ballpark, and the high-side of the total has been a surprisingly strong pick in recent Royals games despite the team’s slow climb back to .500.

Pick: Over 

6/9/21

Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox

There are 2 popular favorite’s moneylines on Wednesday night’s MLB ledger, Boston’s line to beat the Houston Astros, and odds on the Chicago White Sox (-137) to earn a 5th victory in 6 ballgames against the visiting Toronto Blue Jays at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Red Sox-Astros betting trends appear based on thin analysis. Yes, probable pitcher Jake Odorizzi was burned by Beantown batters in his last outing, but Houston is coming off a 7-1 win, and if Odorizzi wasn’t due for positive reversion with a 7+ run ERA, he’d be out of the rotation. The ChiSox vs Blue Birds battle abides a clearer-cut handicap.

Toronto’s hitting stats look fine, but the club is riddled with injuries, and coming off a series loss to (speak of the devil) Houston. A start from Lance Lynn of the White Sox will keep Blue Jays’ bats quiet long enough for the AL Central leaders to manufacture a lead from the plate. Now that the smoke is clearing on the spring’s “dress rehearsal” pennant race, it would appear that the Chicago White Sox are only rarely vulnerable at home.

Pick: White Sox 

New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins

Daily Double was on the verge of another double-winner on Tuesday night when the Yankees and Twins suffered bullpen bloopers in the late innings of an 8-4 New York victory. Gamblers love the Pinstripes’ Run Line (-1.5 (-115) and have caused the O/U line to jump up to (8.5) runs, but only 1 of the early betting trends makes sense analytically.

Twins starter Randy Dobnak is 1-5 and coming off a pair of ineffective outings. But he’s had some hard luck too, and could be more focused than his heralded opponent. New York’s probable starting pitcher Gerrit Cole has been involved in controversy and could potentially be letting it interfere with his routine, giving up 5 runs to Tampa Bay in 5 innings-pitched less than a week ago. Maybe it’s an anomaly or something else, but the chance at betting on 2 vulnerable pitchers vs lineups with formidable power to wind-up going over (8.5) is worth a 1 or 2-unit risk.

Pick: Over (8.5) 

6/8/21

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds

There are rivalry wins, and then there’s rebounding from a 16-run loss to defeat an arch (Arch?) enemy 4 straight times in its own backyard. The Cincinnati Reds invaded Ballpark Village at week’s end and emerged with hard-fought wins in every ballgame, surviving a 7-run St. Louis rally in midst of Sunday’s closing contest. The impressive sweep has Cincy’s moneyline (-132) shrinking for a Tuesday opener vs Milwaukee.

Milwaukee’s edge is pitching, as the Brew Crew has averaged 160% as many strikeouts as hits in spring ’21, but remains buoyed above .500 by an excellent stable of hurlers. Speculators think Reds’ bats could take advantage of a rare vulnerability in Milwaukee pitching on Tuesday night, as probable visiting starter Adrian Houser was cold-cocked by Cincinnati for 6 earned runs in a recent appearance. Probable host P Sonny Gray pitched in the Phillies’ 17-1 massacre of the Reds, but helped shut-out the Washington Nationals in a previous start.

The timing isn’t right for a juiced-up Cincinnati wager, since Milwaukee is on a nuclear-hot streak on the road and isn’t the club coming off an extended rivalry battle in front of boo-birds. The Brew Crew is simply going about its business, while the Reds have had a rest day for the inevitable letdown to take hold. Handicappers concerned with strength-of-schedule should consider that Cincy is meeting a plus-odds ‘dog with a better W/L record who matches the Reds in short-term momentum.

Pick: Brewers (+116) 

New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins

2 distinct trends marked the open of wagering on Minnesota’s opener with the visiting New York Yankees on Tuesday night – the Yankee moneyline has thinned from underdog-territory to (-117) while the O/U action is so off-kilter that books can’t figure out whether to juice O(8.5) or Over (9). Why such live action on a club that’s lost 4 in a row?

The Minnesota Twins are having a dismal season at Target Field, and Jordan Montgomery could be poised to out-pitch host hurler Michael Pineta. Still, we’re jumping on the (9) run O/U line instead of employing the basement psychoanalysis that leads fans to bet on legacy teams in their darkest hours, even when flying to play the (so-far) terrible Twins.

Pick: Under (9) 

6/7/21

Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox

Flaky intraleague outcomes of the past and a trendy underdog angle have Boston’s ML fattening to (-145) despite coming-off a fantastic series sweep of the New York Yankees on the Pinstripes’ home diamond, culminating in a 6-5 extra innings triumph on Sunday Night Baseball. The public clearly imagines a letdown for the Red Sox as they transition away from rivalry baseball.

Miami is certainly good enough to surprise a team having a swoon, especially with Monday’s starter Pablo Lopez’s ERA through 4 starts this season. Boston probable P Nick Pivetta has not hurled against the Fish and looks vulnerable in late spring.

But the high-rollers and influencers responsible for line-movement may have picked the wrong ‘dog at the wrong time of the season. The Miami Marlins just finished losing to the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-1 in a 4-game series, and were swept out of the ballpark in consecutive earlier meetings including a 2-game stint with the Boston Red Sox. Given the Marlins’ poor form, only a pitching mismatch in favor of the visitors would make Miami anything close to a true favorite on Monday.

Pick: Red Sox (-145) or (-1.5) (+125) 

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres

The Chicago Cubs can get high marks for their performance vs the NL West so far, or at least, as high of marks as you can give a ballclub that lost the maiden series of the trip. Chicago led early in a painful 4-3 loss on Saturday, the Cubs’ 3rd straight defeat at the hands of the Giants. But the team fought-off a sweep attempt in the 4th contest and arrives in San Diego still tied for the lead in a bunched NL Central, ready to face a Padres team looking for revenge after getting swept at Wrigley Field.

Gamblers appear to like San Diego at (-125) odds, though mounting injuries and sluggish offense are angles that point to profitable bets in alterative markets. Probable visiting hurler Adbert Alzolay has been improving in warmer weather, while opposing P Ryan Weathers of the Pads met with a storm of live Chicago bats in his last appearance.

The Padres-Cubs O/U (7.5) is a vulnerable line on which a wise bet bends to genuine trends other than, “the Padres are upset with the Cubs by now.” Weathers and the San Diego defense are the sort to adjust well in a 2nd go at an adversary, and 12 of the Cubs’ last 18 ballgames have gone low-side on the Vegas total. San Diego may not turn into the small-ball capital of California by 2025, but so go the 2021 San Diego Padres…who haven’t played in a game that’s totaled 10+ runs since May 30th.

Pick: Under 

6/6/21

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers

Arizona’s meek pitching has done more than wake up Milwaukee’s bats over the last 3 days. It’s allowed the Brew Crew to produce 3 much-needed wins in a row and tie for the lead in the NL Central. Milwaukee is a (-250) moneyline pick and a (-120) Run Line wager to beat the Diamondbacks by 2+ runs in Sunday afternoon’s closer, a ballgame with a cautious (7.5) O/U line in Sin City.

It’s understandable why the Brewers vs Snakes total is stuck in place as of late Saturday night, since probable Arizona pitcher Chris Smith’s season thus far is an enigma without an adequate sample size for analysis. Host hurler Corbin Burnes has been a hard-luck, 6-inning starter who throws a healthy # of Ks. The (-1.5) bet feels safest for some considering the D-Backs’ poor spring.

A contradiction in the betting action is that speculators trust Milwaukee to keep pounding Arizona’s pitching, but imagine a low-scoring series closer. The Brewers shouldn’t be a minus-odds RL bet if a pitcher’s duel is imminent, which is probably an overrated prediction to begin with. Any kind of 2-2 or 3-3 tie in the late innings provides an easy trap-door escape if O(7.5) is nail-biting.

Pick: Over

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

First critics were frying the New York Yankees, then the ballclub’s improved May campaign quieted them down a little bit. Rabble has been roused all over again with Boston’s strong start in a series at Yankee Stadium, as Rafael Devers’ immense home run highlighted the Red Sox’s 7-3 win on Saturday. New York can’t win the series but must aim to prevent an opposing sweep, helping the Yanks to a tentative favorite’s line of (-143) for Sunday Night Baseball.

Boston can hope to squeeze just enough out of starting pitcher Garrett Richards to keep things fun into the late innings when big visiting bats could take over again. Like the rest of the AL East, the Red Sox sense an opportunity to put Ws in the bank against the Yankees while the New York club is floundering.

Probable NY hurler Domingo German’s stamina has matched excellent WHIP numbers in several consecutive starts. His consistency is a boon to Pinstripe speculators who’ve watched the team look like All-Stars and cellar-dwellers on back-to-back days in 2021. Bookies don’t think 1-to-1 Run Line odds would draw a balanced handle given Boston’s success in the series, but the Yanks will have more than just motivation to draw on Sunday night.

Pick: Yankees (-143) or (-1.5) (+130)

6/5/21

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

It’s understandable that there’s no special buzz around the NL East right now. Some divisions have as many as 3-4 inspired lineups vying for 1st place, but the New York Mets are allowed to hold a commanding NL East lead despite a lousy 12-17 record on the road. Still, overlooked games can offer a bounty of mistaken lines and smart wagers, such as can be found when the Phillies (-135) host the Nationals for the 2nd of 3 ballgames on Saturday.

The O/U total has dropped to (9) on betting boards despite quasi-serviceable starting hurlers. Joe Ross and Spencer Howard have been on short leashes even after efficient innings, the pair’s lack of stamina likely to tax both bullpens. Under-gamblers are motivated by trends, not pitching. Low-side wagers have been winning for both teams’ games as a rule, and the Phils especially look shaky from the plate without injured Bryce Harper. Friday’s 2-1 outcome hasn’t inspired a lot of high-side action.

Look closer, though, and the Nats are a stronger offensive club on the road, while the Phillies’ 17-run party against the Reds shows that Philadelphia isn’t doomed to score 1 base-runner at a time until a slugger returns. Wind will be blowing outward, Washington is as healthy as it’s been in 3 years, and analysis will probably trump “hunch” bets once again as the innings unfold.

Pick: Over

Oakland Athletics at Colorado Rockies

When there’s a decent argument in favor of both opposing starting pitchers, is finding the best bet about discovering other angles, or about which argument is the superior one? That’s the conundrum faced by MLB speculators headed into Saturday’s follow-up between Colorado and visiting Oakland, the latter a (-125) pick to win but only a (+115) payoff on the Run Line thanks to an anticipated high-scoring ballgame with an O/U total of (11.5) runs.

The promise of probable Rox hurler Kyle Freeland getting back to his vintage form is a compelling reason for bettors to pick Colorado ATS, as is the fact that the Rockies have a winning record at home. Saturday night’s host lineup knows how to avoid strike-outs and make solid contact in thin air, which could be bad news for 3-7 Oakland starter Cole Irvin.

But there are several convincing angles in favor of taking Oakland as a side. The Athletics have adjusted from the plate since getting tamped-down in a series against the Angels, with discipline to match power and improved scoring with runners on-base. Irvin’s stamina has been solid while Freeland hasn’t been lasting 5 innings at a time, giving the superior team a chance to pick on Colorado’s bullpen in favorable hitting conditions.

Pick: Athletics

6/4/21

L.A. Dodgers at Atlanta Braves

Sportsbooks almost appear to be trying to lure bettors away from simply picking the Dodgers (-122) to win on Friday night, putting (+100) payoff odds on O(9) and a (+134) Run Line on Los Angeles beating the Atlanta Braves by 2 or more runs in a series opener.

Betting the total’s high-side might not be a bad idea, since each club’s ballgames have been outscoring Las Vegas totals around 55% of the time, visiting starter Julio Urias has gotten progressively worse results in recent appearances, and probable Braves P Ian Anderson was dinged-around more than a Jethro Tull drum-kit by the Mets in his last outing.

But it’s hard to steer away from the side, with the Bums breaking through on offense earlier than anticipated, and given the L.A. stable’s penchant for snapping back from the mound.

Picks: Dodgers and Over

Note: Thursday night’s incomplete set of Friday MLB odds does not include San Diego vs New York, but with Blake Snell inked as the Pads’ starting pitcher and Joey Lucchesi scheduled for the Metropolitans, we’re hoping to find and handicap odds on the Mets-at-Padres battle as soon as early AM. 

Update: Some handicaps are simpler than others! New York’s fat (+163) moneyline is at least 30 cents on the dollar lower-risk than what WagerBop’s line-forecast anticipated. Visiting starter Joey Lucchesi and host hurler Blake Snell have been equally erratic this spring, and with New York’s bats alive, the angle of the Mets’ bad road record to date isn’t quite as important as Friday’s specific scenario. Offense might be enough to win a ragged battle.

Pick: Mets (+163) or (+1.5) (-140) 

6/3/21

Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies

Ouch! Daily Double‘s hot streak hit a major 0-2 bump in the road on Wednesday, courtesy of the New York Yankees’ grit and the L.A. Dodgers’ irrepressible bats. Let’s get back to our winning ways with a high-percentage tactic, trying to guess exactly when an MLB losing streak will end.

Just kidding! Long L streaks like the Kansas City Royals’ and Detroit Tigers’ skids earlier in 2021 cause a conundrum for moneyline gamblers, trying to anticipate when the inevitable will occur. A better question is, when a losing streak like the Texas Rangers’ current slide is broken, what will the ingredients to the victory be, and what is the ballgame likely to look like on the score sheet? Keeping the likely character of a losing club’s success at-long-last in mind when handicapping all other outcomes can help turn bets with 50% chances to win into 60% likelihoods to score payoff on a gambling line.

For the Texas Rangers, snapping a deadly yawn of a losing streak will probably mean eke-ing out a 3-2 or a 4-1 win. No matter what the team’s pitching does – usually just enough to fall in the 9th inning – the Lone Stars’ bats are as quiet as your favorite constellation. Cautious pitching and Colorado’s sudden motivation to play small-ball against a team that loses to 2-run rallies should be enough to keep Over (10.5) from getting covered by home runs in the Denver air on Thursday.

Pick: Under 

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox

The ChiSox are becoming a known, rich quantity in the AL Central, but it’s more of a mystery whether the Detroit Tigers will become a live underdog or a sleepy kitten in the remainder of 2021. No doubt that the Detroit batting lineup has had some pop in the last few games, earning the Tigers another surprise sweep (this time over the New York Yankees) and defeating the Milwaukee Brewers 10-7 on Tuesday. The upset-alert has tempered a Run Line that opened with Chicago at (-1.5) and minus-odds for Wednesday night’s opener, while a not-so-correlated O/U line movement has books already dropping the total to (7.5) from an opening (8) runs.

It’s probably a fool’s errand to wager on the Run Line, since it’s never easy to predict whether a hot upstart will be beaten by 2+ runs by an even hotter one. Unlike many David vs Goliath scenarios, Chicago could actually be helped by the division rivalry at stake, since it gives the White Sox a reason to play hard. New York was snuck-up on by Motor City.

The O/U is another story, as Lance Lynn’s start isn’t the only factor for low-side bettors to feel good about. Detroit hurler Casey Mize has been responsible for solid, consistent performances throughout May, and led the Tigers to a win over the Pinstripes on Friday. Furthermore, if the scoreboard does become slanted in Chi-Town’s favor, the possibility of a bad beat via a 3-3 tie and extra innings recedes.

Pick: Under 

6/2/21

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

With consideration of the Tampa Bay Rays winning Monday’s series opener against the host New York Yankees, then making life difficult for the Pinstripes in an 11-inning battle on Tuesday, bookmakers set New York’s line to win Wednesday evening’s game at a cautious (-112). However, a start from Jordan Montgomery and the chance to bet the Yanks at 1-1 made the hosts’ opening odds among Tuesday night’s most popular wagers, and New York quickly thinned to a (-133) moneyline while the Rays’ odds swelled to (+117).

What exactly is the line-movement all about, if not a mismatch on the mound? Probable pitcher Shane McLanahan of the Rays has been effective in recent starts, though MLB analysts might think he’s faced modest batting lineups in the process.

Still, pitching is pitching, and the guest hurler has to be at least as confident as Montgomery, who is coming off a bad outing (and a lucky W) against Toronto. There’s no solid reason to back the public’s rush to a legacy club’s market this time.

Pick: Rays (+117) or Rays 5-Innings Bet 

St. Louis Cardinals at L.A. Dodgers

Why are the Dodgers such an overwhelming Run Line favorite to beat the visiting Cardinals by 2+ runs on Wednesday night? It’s not like the lead hasn’t see-sawed back and forth over the opening 2 games of the series. Once again, there’s a whole lot of hype around the Bums’ batting order at present, but fans (and gamblers alike) must have patience. A promised start for ace Walker Buehler might not justify a (-225) ML.

Sure, the Cardinals are traditionally prone to poor batting against strong pitching on the road – to be fair, a majority of MLB clubs can go in that same category – and might well get shut down on Wednesday. But a rising O/U total of (8) indicates that fireworks are expected in SoCal, even as the reputable Carlos Martinez takes the mound for St. Louis. That’s premature when L.A. is trying to win games by however many runs it can to keep pace while key pieces assemble.

Pick: Under 

6/1/21

*Red Sox at Astros Reprise: Game 2″

Uh oh. After a nuclear-hot finish to 2020 and a mediocre spring of ’21, Daily Double is starting to feel it again with double-digit Ws since last Tuesday, including winners at plus-odds. But not to select a ballgame for this Tuesday night as a means of extending the braggadocio. Houston vs Boston (Round 2) is rather a good opportunity on the Las Vegas numbers alone, given that a variety of sportsbooks are shy to give the Red Sox (+108) a favorite’s moneyline despite solid betting action on the Beantown visitors.

What the odds don’t take into account is Monday’s blow-out in favor of the ‘Stros, which is weird to say when a team just clocked another contender by 9 runs while impressing bookmakers even more than the public. But the Memorial Day ballgame’s outcome was settled by starting pitching, as Jose Urquidy kept visiting bats quiet in the first several innings while the Astros racked-up 6 earned runs and compelled Boston to go with Colten Brewer, an average relief pitcher who didn’t fare any better but at least spared superior set-up men for what promises to be an anxious chore in Tuesday’s late innings.

Bookies have observed a lot of lopsided series this year and don’t want to miss the shot on another. But the Red Sox are poised to fight back in the follow-up behind a start from Garrett Richards, who has been pitching as effectively and even lasting as long on the mound as probable Houston pitcher Luis Garcia. Boston is a healthier club with a bullpen much closer to 100%, a reason why O(9) isn’t drawing more wagers even though the predicted wind is batter-friendly.

Pick: Red Sox 

San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs

National League gamblers’ 2 trendiest sides on Tuesday night are arguably the L.A. Dodgers and San Diego Padres, the former of which is a mystifying Run Line bet for more than 1 reason. The Bums are having sudden, unexpected pitching issues that threaten to overshadow the hype around L.A.’s batting order, and have dragged their feet just picking out a starter for Tuesday’s game. Let’s turn to the Padres’ thinning (-111) line to beat the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field with a little more solid information to chew on.

Granted, now may not seem like the intuitive time to wager against the Cubbies. Javier Báez slugged 2 more home runs on Monday as the Cubs beat the Pads 7-2, and Chicago, which has won about 2/3 of its ballgames at Wrigley, is vaulting over STL in the NL Central. However, speculators are excited about probable Pads pitcher Ryan Weathers, who has given up 1 earned run in 2 outings.

That’s great, but Weather has also been yanked in the 5th inning religiously, while Chicago’s starter Kyle Hendricks is capable of pitching well for twice as long in a ballgame. The Cubs were quietly among the hotter baseball teams of late May and can feel good about how the pitching staff held up on Memorial Day. San Diego, meanwhile, isn’t in a great spot to win with a 4-inning starter, with 8 bullpen injuries dotting a clubhouse-wide list of wounds.

Pick: Cubs (+101) 

5/31/21

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros

Monday evening is highlighted by a clash of…2nd-place clubs in the American League? Perhaps the Astros and Red Sox are not in full command of their respective AL divisions at the present time, but let’s be real – the 4-game series opener at Minute Maid Park is a marquee ballgame on the MLB’s Memorial Day slate. For some reason, bettors are drawn to pick Boston to win the holiday contest despite probable P Eduardo Rodriguez’s poor performance in May. Jose Urquidy will return from injury for the Astros, who may not be winning at the same clip as the Red Sox over the last 1-2 weeks, but who’ve also faced tougher competition. Houston hasn’t scored many runs in recent series against Boston but that trend could change given a host lineup averaging well over 5 runs-per-game and making solid contact in almost every at-bat against visiting hurlers.

Pick: Astros 

Pittsburgh Pirates at Kansas City Royals

The original blueprint for The Jerry Springer Show was to welcome genuine, blue-collar guests who were honestly dealing with their problems. As we now know, it didn’t quite work out that way. But there’s a “dark side” of fair MLB previewing too, and it involves handicapping the have-nots almost as often as the haves, lest we narrow the scope of potentially valuable betting lines out of Las Vegas. Kansas City vs Pittsburgh is a “cruiserweight” battle on Monday night in which there’s a straight 1/1 payoff line (+100) on the Royals to win by 2 runs or more and earn a W for the favorite’s Run Line.

Only 1 wrinkle in that narrative – Pittsburgh is the ballclub behaving like a traditional patsy, while KC has roared back to life following a long losing streak and will savor playing a familiar, beatable team with a chance to reach .500. Probable Royals hurler Mike Minor has been pitching his way out of jams with Ks, while Monday’s Buccos starter Chad Kuhl is consistently allowing runs from every opponent.

Pick: Royals (-1.5) 

5/30/21

San Francisco Giants at L.A. Dodgers

Kevin Gausman of the Giants is going to lose a ballgame one of these days. In fact, he might even get blown off the mound in a 3rd or 4th inning, a fate that befalls countless effective MLB hurlers in the 2020s. Las Vegas sees Sunday as the time for San Fran’s ace to finally face adversity, with a thinning (+120) Run Line payoff on the L.A. Dodgers to beat Gigantes by 2+ runs or more in the series closer. To be sure, there are lots of reasons to be optimistic about the Dodgers in almost any key game over the next 2-3 months – at least. Cody Bellinger is set to return, Albert Pulojs’ bat is alive, and to make things rosier for Sunday, Clayton Kershaw is set to do battle against Gausman on the mound. But a bet on Sunday’s action is about the here and now, and the Bums have lost 2 games in a row to slow the club’s momentum in temporary terms. Gausman’s numbers are simply too good to justify payoff odds slanted so far in L.A.’s direction, especially for what’s expected to be a 4-3 type of score.

Pick: Giants (+1.5)

If you’re wondering where Daily Double‘s traditional Sunday Night Baseball prediction is – well, as of overnight Sat-Sunday, it’s out with the rain. We’ve sent gamblers to the betting window only to wind up with cancelled ballgames and pushes too many times this spring, to the point where playing chicken with Mother Nature is on the table when game after game is threatened with inclement skies. We’ll track the weather (and the odds) in the Big Apple to see if there’s a fair chance SNB will be played on Memorial Day weekend. If so, WagerBop readers can expect a prediction on the New York Mets vs the Atlanta Braves by Sunday afternoon. 

*Provisional Mets vs Braves Prediction*

Wouldn’t you know, a revised rain-likelihood of below 50% in New York City as of 10 PM on Sunday night means that Sunday Night Baseball between the Mets and visiting Braves could actually happen, and provides a good reason to preview and handicap the contest – though there’s still a good chance that a planned 7 PM start time will be delayed. New York is a thin (-120) favorite to win its 5th straight in a ballgame with an Over/Under line that’s dropped into the Lower Manhattan subway at (5.5) total runs.

An MLB total of (5.5) might seem like a line from those “Little League” 7-inning specials that keep taking place in 2021’s make-up doubleheaders. But it’s the ultimate inning total that bookmakers (and trendy speculators) have in mind as much as the recent stats of starting hurlers Jacob deGrom and Max Fried. While both pitchers are in strong form, the strange line-movement can also be traced to the prospect of the Mets and Braves fitting-in just enough frames to post an official result before rain overtakes the diamond. Depending on the rules of sportsbooks and specific bets, there are worse ways to win on the Under.

Sports bettors should stick to runs, hits, and errors, and skip the meteorology. With the evening’s rain now expected to slowly subside, not intensify in late PM hours, the question is not how many innings can be played but how warm Fried and deGrom’s arms can stay. Atlanta’s fielding could be sloppy due to distraction from the horrid Marcell Ozuna allegations. Moreover, neither starter has been averaging beyond 5-6 innings on the mound, making any “dueling complete games” prediction as flawed as “increasing rain.”

Pick: Over (5.5)

5/29/21

Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals

My oh my, did it take a long while for Sin City bookmakers to croak-out overnight odds on Washington vs Milwaukee. And what did the long, fruitful toil bring us? Nothing out of the ordinary – just a (-120) line on the Nationals to beat the visiting Brew Crew in the opener of a 3-game series.

Nationals Park is among many MLB venues threatened by rainy weather on Saturday evening, though it appears that there could be ample opportunity to fit 7-9 innings in periodic patches of calm and drizzle. Washington has been solid as a favorite this spring, but speculators could be undecided about probable starter Patrick “Colossus: The Corbin Project” Corbin after a 3-3 start.

But there’s no disaster lurking in either team’s stable of hurlers. It’s the offenses that are the issue. Nationals bats are quieter at home than on the road, and Brewers home-field broadcasts are turning into long discussions about how to support a pitching staff that’s holding up the world, or at least Wisconsin.

Pick: Under (8.5)

St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks

TVN clients have had enough valuable picks rain-out this MLB season already. How about a game in the desert, so late at night that even the cacti aren’t thirsty anymore? Arizona is in midst of a losing streak that could become even more ignominious than what Kansas City suffered through earlier in spring, but the last-place Diamondbacks can’t pass – they’ve got to host St. Louis for the 3rd out of 4 ballgames on Saturday night.

The Cards are only a mild ML favorite, closer to 1-to-1 odds than we’re used to seeing when Adam Wainwright pitches against a patsy. KC’s almost too-easy rehabilitation from its own losing skid may have caused oddsmakers to believe there’s always a competitive team lurking in every MLB dugout, and that these things happen due to psychology and bad luck more than analytical factors.

Here’s an analytical factor that may have something to do with Arizona’s 18-34 record – the Diamondbacks’ pitching stinks. Expected host-starter Seth Frankoff hasn’t had an effective start since even Phoenix was still a bit chilly, and it appears that the club’s management has decided to ride out the doldrums rather than tinker too proactively with a helpless rotation.

Pick: Cardinals

5/28/21

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

It’s surreal to contemplate, but the Kansas City Royals’ extended spring losing streak is the only thing that’s kept KC from a Miami Marlins-style interloper run at the top of an MLB division. Kansas City beat Tampa Bay in Tuesday’s series opener to climb above .500 on the road, prior to the talented Rays fighting back with strong pitching and defense to earn a 2-1 triumph in the trio. Echoes of the Royals’ slump still reverberate in the club’s (+135) moneyline for Friday night’s opener in Minnesota, a ballgame with an O/U run total (8.5) that’s not drawing much action on the high-side.

Kris Bubic has something to do with that. Bubic is off to a promising start in 2021, and we know he’s got something to do with the U(9) betting trend despite getting knocked out of the box in the 4th inning by the Twins last August. That’s because his counterpart, probable host-starter Randy Dobnak, is 1-3 with an ERA as ugly as the Twins’ W/L record.

Dobnak has shown flashes of vastly improved form as of late, making the low-side a tasty pick indeed. But with Bubic hurling Ks for a club that’s been pretty good outside of a voodoo-hexed stretch, going up against a disappointing team on a downcast diamond, should KC (+135) really be a thing?

Picks: Royals (+135) and Under 

San Diego Padres at Houston Astros

The Houston Astros disappoint, and they disappoint, and disappoint some more. Speculators loaded-up on the ‘Stros after each loss to the Texas Rangers, thinking that the dam would break sooner or later – the same logic applied when Houston was swept by the Detroit Tigers earlier in 2021, a series that cost high-risk ML takers a fortune. The Astros’ pitching stable saved some face with a series split against the Los Angeles Angels, casting the club as a 1-to-1 bet in Friday’s opener against the visiting San Diego Padres. San Diego is getting more and more dangerous against solid opponents on the road, but Houston should benefit from Framber Valdez’s return on Friday night. Injuries and weather delays could make for a flaky, disjointed ballgame, making the Over (8.5) a better gamble than either side.

Pick: Over 

5/27/21

Once again, we must commence Daily Double predictions before knowing how a night will finish-out – or in-fact if the night will finish-out vis-a-vis the Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds. If she’s a washed-out ballgame then it’s a push at the betting counter, and so we’ll go back to the drawing board for a (hopefully) dry batch of picks for Thursday.

Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox

So the franchise-revival party was spoiled in Chicago, at least for 1 day. The ChiSox, a popular Run Line pick in the final game of a victorious series with guest St. Louis, stranded double-digit base runners in an 0-4 loss that could wound an upstart team’s pride more than an AL Central-leading W/L record. Undeterred by a hiccup against the Cardinals, the MLB betting community has again installed Chi-Town as a 1/1 Run Line bet, this time for a series opener against Baltimore on Thursday night.

The logic behind favoring the White Sox by (-1.5) runs is simple. Chicago’s bats should be good for at least 1 or 2 runs more than Baltimore’s on an otherwise-level diamond. In fact, the ChiSox are due for some positive reversion from the plate at home despite averaging nearly 5 runs per game at Guaranteed Rate Field, which might as well refer to the White Sox’s “moneyball” tendency to put extra runners on-base with less put-outs. Scoring improvement could be a matter of time, though it’s notable that Billy Bean’s moneyball team knew to gear its pitching around the “maximum RBI chances” system, while White Sox management likely never dreamed that the 2021 club would lead its division while waiting for so many stuck-in-place runners to find home. Moneyball is no panacea when the RBIs aren’t coming often enough.

But there’s money in a pitching match-up of struggling Bruce Zimmermann against host-hurler Dylan Cease. Other betting angles “cease” to be as important when you consider the young righty’s improved form in 2021 compared to Zimmerman’s semi-comic woes on the mound.

Pick: White Sox (-1.5) 

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners

A handful of double-digit scoring explosions on seemingly random MLB afternoons and evenings has had bookmakers coughing-up a billion dollars in “action points” totals bets on the high-side. It’s natural that sportsbooks would begin adjusting O/U run totals upward a little bit in late May. Still, late-night totals bettors aren’t used to seeing U(9) at standard odds for such a pair of flaccid offenses as Seattle and Texas, clubs which have been as banged-up as they are hapless despite the Lone Stars’ outlier sweep of Houston (maybe the Astros’ sweep-losses to underdogs are a pattern) and the Mariners’ series-win against the Oakland Athletics.

Are the starting hurlers a mess? Not necessarily. Visiting starter Kolby Allard’s historical stats belie a fine spring-training report and a nice start to the 2021 campaign. Probable host-starter Chris Flexen lasted into the 7th frame and put together a 5-4 win over the Rangers on 5/7.

Wind is predicted to blow out of the ballpark, but a threat of showers could make this game a safer investment for low-side O/U gamblers. Delays might ice arms but they can ice already-frigid lineups too, and more importantly, changes in weather over a 5 or 6-hour period could nix the strong wind and turn the advantage to those U(9) believers after all.

Pick: Under 

5/26/21

Early-bird (or night-owl) readers will note that Seattle and Oakland still have a chunk of Tuesday’s game to go, and will hopefully pile-up enough total runs to snap a very brief losing streak for Daily Double. However, at least the ballgame’s in-progress status makes the last of yesterday’s MLB pregame betting odds a moot point. Do scroll down if you’re still analyzing the outcome of Ms vs As, or visit some other letters (along with odds for Wednesday night) atop the page.  

Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals are technically in the cellar of the National League East division, though the 5 ballclubs are so tightly drawn that a single series could become the difference between holding a spring lead or trailing the pack.

Since the Nats lack the morale-bummer of a traditional “last place” status, Sin City is comfortable giving Washington a (-135) line to level a series with the Cincinnati Reds at 1-1 on Wednesday evening. Cincy and Washington have similar records and comparable batting lineups (from a talent/production POV anyway) and pundits hesitate to tout the Reds on the Run Line because the team has been poor ATS so far. To be sure, both starting hurlers – Joe Ross and visiting Jeff Hoffman – can be called serviceable in the long term.

But in the short term? Ross recently gave up 8 runs in an 11-4 loss to Arizona, before getting knocked-out in the 4th inning by the ChiSox last week. That’s not what I call service.

Pick: Reds (+125) or (+1.5) (-165) 

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers

This is another “double” from Daily Double – O(8) is a nice pick against-the-public on a falling O/U total. However, Chris Paddack is in position to fare better than struggling host-hurler Adrian Houser, even though handicappers think Paddack isn’t being tested in close ballgames, that’s not his fault. San Diego is scoring 1.5 more runs per game on the road than the Brew Crew is eking out at home.

Picks: Padres and Over 

5/25/21

L.A. Dodgers at Houston Astros

While the Houston Astros and L.A, Dodgers share status as early 2021 contenders, there’s no question that the Bums are the hotter commodity headed into an interleague series at Minute Maid Park. The club’s current streak includes a 4-game sweep of Arizona and a proud 3-0 performance in San Diego, helping the Dodgers to a (-120) line to win Tuesday’s opener behind a start from Clayton Kershaw.

Once again, a litany of Dodger injuries could slow the club down more than any opponent. Thin spots in the field and in the bullpen are matched only by Houston’s problems keeping a starting rotation healthy, but Zack Greinke is having a better spring than the cycles in which he’s been caught by unmerciful L.A. lineups in the past.

It’s rare to find a “buck and a half” (-150) Run Line on such a strong host-underdog as the Astros, who have played up and down to the competition along with a number of noteworthy MLB teams in ’21. Los Angeles could find a way to win and keep the W streak alive for a short while longer, but the ‘Stros are very likely to spoil the fun for at least 7 or 8 innings with an offense tuned-in ahead of schedule.

Pick: Astros (+1.5) 

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics

Have the Mariners already hit a wall, the inevitable slump we’ve come to expect will block Seattle’s winning ambitions every summer? Yes, the Ms snapped a painful losing streak in the opener against visiting Oakland on Monday, but injuries and problems at the plate don’t promise a wonderful June and July at T-Mobile.

Bookmakers’ tactics are divided on the O/U line, which is at a standard (8.5) and (-115) payoff for the high side at some sportsbooks but offered at a juice-less O(8) at others. Despite Seattle’s recent offensive woes, we’re taking the latter bet.

The starting pitchers are catch-and-catch can, and Oakland’s (-170) moneyline mostly refers to the damage As batters can do. Seattle will probably sneak-in some late runs as hometown announcers try to chirp optimistic notes about the impending closer, but the prospect of another wacky Seattle series-win steers us away from the ML.

Pick: Over (8) 

5/24/21

Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins

The Baltimore Orioles have suffered through a 6-game losing streak and 2 series sweeps-against, and yet the O-Birds are a (-110) wager to defeat the host Minnesota Twins on Monday night.

As you might expect, there’s quite a mismatch on the mound, a lopsided pairing of starting hurlers that would surely snap a losing streak for any more talented lineup. John Means is a perfect 4-0 on the season and looks almost unbreakable despite some episodes, while Minnesota’s Matt Shoemaker is ready to try pitching barefooted after a miserable spring. Can the Twins shake-off any Orioles rallies and slug their way to a 4th win in 5 outings?

That’s the fallacy – Minnesota isn’t playing any better baseball than Baltimore. In fact, the Orioles’ road record of 11-11 is the only promising thing about either team’s 17-win campaign. Take the superior starting pitcher in a battle of struggling clubs.

Pick: Orioles 

Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers

Detroit might not have much to show for a freaky string of sweeps of good ballclubs, but the Tigers are 6-4 in 10 games, and have surprisingly made way for the Twins – not the Royals – in the AL Central caboose. Cleveland is only a (+105) underdog in Motor City on Monday despite limping through recent series with Seattle and Minnesota.

Speculators are focused on a rising run total (9) on a night of baseball for which O/U numbers are falling out of the sky. It’s true that there are some questions about pitching form headed into the Tigers-Indians opener. But aren’t most of them about 1 side only?

There should be few worries about Spencer Trumbull of the Tigers, who has improved as the spring has gone on despite a shaky supporting cast. Sam Hentges of the Tribe is not the pick to quiet a noisy underdog after a regressive outing against the Angels.

Pick: Tigers

5/23/21

Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees

So the Chicago White Sox appear to have finally met their match in 2021, dropping 2 painful games in a row to the host Bronx Bombers. Yankees outdueled ChiSox in a tense 2-1 victory on Friday, then shut-out the seemingly flat visitors 7-0 on Saturday. Bookmakers opened betting at pick’em lines for Sunday afternoon’s closing contest, but the public loves the Yankees, shrinking New York’s moneyline to (-130) as Chicago balloons to a (+120) wager.

How will the White Sox respond to a spring-time belt in the bugle? Probably with a 110% effort to win Sunday’s ballgame behind Dallas Kuechel. Opposing hurler Jameson Tallion may not be able to stem the tide as ace starters of the past 2 days have, but that hasn’t stopped the O/U from falling to (8.5) runs.

Gamblers are overthinking the Yankees’ psychology if not the ChiSox’s mental game. New York wants the sweep and will play hard, but Tallion isn’t the kind of starting P who broadcasts a “to the irons” atmosphere over 1 game. In fact, Kuechel could have a big edge on the mound in a series that’s been all about pitching. The Yankees aren’t division rivals with the White Sox and aren’t as giddy about Chicago’s downturn as many fans are.

Pick: White Sox

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals

Surprise – it’s the Cardinals and Cubs on national TV. But unlike a lot of recent meetings between the Redbirds and Cubbies, this is no battle of rock-solid pitching staffs against batting lineups trying to squeak-out runs at a time. Not that the home team is benefiting from bat bats so far. Chicago socked St. Louis 13-4 in Friday’s opener before losing a 2-1 result on Saturday night.

Chicago (+107) could become a trendy wager for Sunday Night Baseball’s rubber match. The Cardinals had a better time getting to 1st place than they’ve had trying to hold on to it, and if you remove games played against the woebegone Pirates, the NL Central leaders are under .500 for 2 weeks.

However, Adam Wainwright’s start will be an emotional one as the long-time fixture tries to battle back from a dreadful west coast outing. Opposing P Zach Davies of the Cubs is sort of like the Cardinal staff this spring – he fares well against Pittsburgh while the rest of the league is a challenge.

Pick: Cardinals

5/22/21

Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies

What can line-movement in a betting market teach us about another? Not always a whole lot, especially when different groups of high-rollers are speculating on each one. But there’s a Saturday contest in Philly for which Las Vegas has forgotten about correlation, or at least it’s been overlooked by those not handling parlay tickets.

Boston bats are expected to be alive against a starting pitcher with an 8+ ERA. Spencer Howard didn’t have a grand MLB debut last season, and only a resounding explosion of offense from the Phillies saved Howard from a loss to the Marlins in his most recent start back in September. The Red Sox (-131) have scored 5+ runs in 5 of 6 games and won Friday’s opener 11-3.

But the match-up of Philadelphia’s batting order against Boston’s pitching doesn’t look so rosy for Saturday night, with guest hurler Nathan Eovaldi standing at 4-2 on the season and 1 start removed from a noble, hard luck appearance vs Oakland. Philadelphia’s hitting woes with competent pitchers on the mound have caused the O/U total to drop to (8.5) overnight, but the Boston ML should be the faster-moving odds.

Pick: Red Sox

Oakland Athletics at L.A. Angels

Oakland’s opener against the last-place L.A. Angels was somewhat of a mirror image of the club’s series-closing loss to Boston, the latter a ballgame in which As batters produced runs but were overwhelmed by mid-game fireworks from the opposing order. Chad Pinder’s big outing paced the Athletics to an 8-4 victory on Friday, and the visitors are a thin (-112) favorite in late-opening odds for a Saturday night follow-up with a (9) run Over/Under total.

At some point, each team’s bats are likely to cool down. The Halos can’t count on “automatic” offense at Angel Stadium despite talent and slugging power, since the team’s occasional struggle to score on the road and a sour W/L record could eventually grind-down on overall numbers. Oakland is lucky to be healthier in the field than in the pitching stable.

But the reversion isn’t likely to come on Saturday, with visiting Chris Bassitt taking the mound after a poor start against the Twins. The Angels are starting Patrick Sandoval, a 24 y/o whose MLB losses could match his age before he reaches 10 wins. Mike Trout’s injury and the obvious discrepancy in form makes Oakland an easy pick at (-112), but don’t forget about the run total with high-side outcomes winning for both clubs and wind blowing out.

Picks: Athletics and Over

5/21/21

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds

There are a pair of NL Central run totals trending upward prior to Friday’s action on the diamond, but at least 1 of the 2 markets is fool’s gold. Carlos Martinez and Kyle Hendricks aren’t having great statistical campaigns so far, but Hendricks has had success against the Redbirds, and Martinez has developed his game since last meeting the Cubs 3 seasons ago. Are there similar pitfalls that could await bets on 0(9) for the division’s other head-to-head contest in Cincinnati?

Chances are, the high-side action for Reds vs Brewers is not sparked by overwhelming belief in the clubs’ bats. Cincinnati is averaging plenty of runs at home but was just quieted by the Giants’ pitching stable in an ugly sweep-against. Milwaukee’s offense is only slowly waking up in fits and starts.

But each starting hurler’s form has been going to pieces. Visiting probable pitcher Adrian Houser was jerked after 3 innings of a recent loss to Atlanta, and Jeff Hoffman of the Cincinnati Reds has been allowing too many baserunners to remain mentally sharp through 5-6 innings. The Brew Crew is a strong 5-innings bet, but our main-market prediction is on both teams to bat crisply and reach base in a rivalry opener.

Pick: Over

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals

Those pesky FBS underdogs can step aside, at least for summer, anyway. There’s a new, different version of that football team that can’t beat a contender on its best day but which preys on enough wounded beasts to procure a respectable record in September, and it’s the Detroit Tigers of Major League Baseball. Detroit (+140) enters a series opener at Kansas City having swept the Seattle Mariners, exposing the Ms just days after whipping the Royals in 3 straight games.

KC is playing better baseball too, “sweeping” the Milwaukee Brewers in only a 2-game stint that ended Wednesday. Of course, there’s as much room for improvement in Kansas City as in any MLB town following a protracted losing streak. Superior performances are likely to blow-out either of the teams in Friday’s opening match-up. It’s a question of which club can take advantage of more opposing vulnerabilies, as the Tigers were able to do in Motor City last week.

The moneylines demonstrate a lack of understanding in how to handicap a ballgame without many superstars in it. Detroit may wind up an awful bet as a steep underdog in ’21 by the time all is said and done, but the Tigers can handle the Royals with Mike Minor on the mound. Even if the outcome is as random as a coin toss, you’d bet heads or tails at (+140).

Pick: Tigers 

5/20/21

New York Yankees at Texas Rangers

Thursday afternoon’s series closers may present an illusion on which is the best legacy club to gamble on. New York of the American League and Chicago of the NL are each slightly thinner than 1-to-1 bets on the moneyline against the Texas Rangers and Washington Nationals respectively, and it’s the Nats whose hurler looks headed for an early hook.

Washington pitcher Joe Ross, following a spring filled with sprayed balls to the outfield, will start against the Cubbies at Wrigley Field. An alluring forecast of wind blowing out of the park has helped drive the O/U total to (10.5). But the “juiced” Chicago line could be dicey, as the Cubs have a poor record against right-handed pitchers in 2021 and may not be able to exploit Ross as badly as some other foes.

So does probable pitcher Dane Dunning of the Rangers look as obviously vulnerable as Ross? Hardly, despite the Houston Astros knocking Dunning around in a recent ballgame. But the Yankees are pitching Domingo German on Thursday with a chance to earn a 3-1 series win headed into a marquee clash with the ChiSox, and the Pinstripes have had a hard time against southpaws in ’21, not righties like Dunning.

Pick: Yankees

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

Multiple ballgames on Thursday are handicapped with double digit run-total lines in Sin City, not a huge surprise considering that several teams have played their way out of spring slumps with high-risk, high-reward at-bats and a resulting uptick in slugging %. But it’s strange to see 2 opposing hurlers with a 10-2 combined W/L record pitching in a game with a (10) run O/U line, as is the case in Toronto where host-starter Steven Matz is taking on Nick Pivetta of the visiting Boston Red Sox (-130).

Locked in a “dress rehearsal” pennant race in the AL East, the rivals have traded blow-out victories to tie the series at 1-1 headed into Thursday’s rubber match. Toronto’s Hyun-jin Ryu dominated the opener as the Blue Jays won 8-0, but Boston ripped Ross Stripling for 8 earned runs the next day.

Toronto is averaging 6+ runs per game at home, but those numbers haven’t all been racked-up against division leaders of MLB. Matz’s form is improving and Pivetta has been more than solid, making us think Toronto’s injuries in the bullpen and in the field could be contributing to the high O/U. But if that’s the case, why aren’t the Red Sox a wider favorite?

Pick: Red Sox and Under 

5/19/21

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

Potential mismatches on Wednesday night have led to Run Line conundrums on St. Louis and San Diego, clubs with advantages on the pitching mound that, while reassuring to gamblers holding thin moneyline slips, could just as easily help manufacture careful 1-run victories and lose for 1-to-1 bets. Philadelphia’s follow-up against the Miami Marlins (+110) provides tighter National League odds that provide greater betting value without the (-1.5) caveat.

The Fish have yet to prove that 2020’s success was based on something other than handling COVID-19 better than other ballclubs in the NL East were able to. They won’t make a statement by winning only a token series or 2 in the whole month of May, a fate the Marlins could easily be headed for after dropping Tuesday’s opener 8-3 in Philadelphia. Bookmakers are counting on 5-2 Trevor Rogers to level the diamond against Wednesday’s host-starter Zach Eflin.

Eflin had a terrible 1st inning against the Washington Nationals in his previous outing, but settled down after that, and continued to show promise for the season. Rogers has been allowing base-runners and isn’t far removed from his own loss to the Nats. Furthermore, the Phillies were a good team at home in 2020 even as Miami enjoyed a rebirth – a trend that has continued right through spring ’21.

Pick: Phillies (-120) 

Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners

One can imagine MLB headquarters thinking, “here’s a game for the hardball junkies” when scheduling the Mariners and Tigers to close-out Wednesday night’s proceedings. Then, since Seattle and Detroit have been headed in opposite directions for much of spring, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Ms would be a big favorite for the 3-game series, including the closer. Instead it’s the Tigers threatening to pull off a 2nd stunning road sweep in as many months after holding the hosts to just 1 run on the week so far.

The “home team to defend vs sweep” angle certainly comes into play when handicapping the Mariners (-135) for Wednesday’s late game, but so does probable pitcher Logan Gilbert’s unfamiliarity to the Tigers, who only have 0-6 Tarik Skubal to fight back with. Why not adjust the rota to come up with a better option for another sweep attempt, Detroit?

Pick: Mariners 

5/18/21

Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels

Ah, what the emotion of a series-loss can do to a baseball club’s Las Vegas odds. The Cleveland Indians fell flat against the host Seattle Mariners after going 4-1 against the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs, leading to a (+128) moneyline and 1-to-1.5 Run Line odds on the Tribe for a Tuesday night contest at Angel Stadium.

Mid-spring W/L records aren’t everything, and it certainly didn’t hurt the early betting trend that L.A.’s bats exploded on Cleveland hurler Sam Hentges in the 2nd inning on Monday night. Los Angeles 1st baseman Jared Walsh is outpacing even Mike Trout’s formidable batting numbers. Maybe the Halos are starting to turn things around after a disappointing start in the AL West.

With less MLB clubs than usual biding their time until the dog days, it’s safer to speculate on the here-and-now rather than try to envision what a team could become down the road. Cleveland is playing well enough to keep pressure on the ChiSox, and if a very inconsistent spring is any indication, L.A.’s Tuesday starter Andrew Heaney could suffer an early-inning pitfall just as Cleveland’s man did on Monday. Probable guest pitcher Zach Plesac has shown excellent form and stamina in consecutive starts.

Pick: Indians (+128) or (+1.5) (-150) 

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics

The Over (8.5) is the obvious wager against (+105) odds for Oakland’s series opener vs visiting Houston on Tuesday, or at least as obvious as any pick at plus-odds can be. Probable pitchers Sean Manaea and Cristian Javier are expected to keep opposing bats quiet, but Manaea didn’t look so hot against the Red Sox last week and has consistently allowed base-runners against the Astros, while Javier has been giving up healthy batting averages and run totals in May. Bookmakers are counting on percentages winning the day (or night), but opening odds might not have accounted for Tuesday weather forecasts that point more and more toward a solid, prevailing wind blowing toward right-center field in Oakland.

Pick: Over 

5/17/21

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

An interesting Monday night betting scenario offers a (+100) market on Under (8.5) in the Twins vs White Sox ballgame, with 2 starting hurlers, Dallas Keuchel and J.A. Happ, who recently faced each other in spring ’21. Chicago is a (-115) moneyline pick for the series opener with very little line movement, unaided by a fixation on the run total following a double-disaster on the mound in similar circumstances.

The same starting pair gave up a combined 15 runs in about half as many innings on May 12th. The ChiSox scored 3 more runs on Happ and largely coasted to a 13-8 victory. Wind blowing into the infield could tempt speculators to try the 1/1 wager on U(8.5), though the (-120) odds on O(8.5) illustrate that bookmakers don’t think the pitching issues are solved.

How about the school of thought that when starting Ps are comparable, the better team is the solid ML pick? There’s no team in the league with more upside than the AL Central leaders, who are averaging close to 6 runs per game on road trips. Chicago ran into a desperate club in Kansas City, but can’t be faulted for relaxing once in a while. The Minnesota Twins, meanwhile, could be digging themselves a deep, dark hole before the pennant race can even get hopping.

Pick: White Sox 

New York Yankees at Texas Rangers

Daily Double found the starting-hurler mismatch of spring on Sunday when the Miami Marlins went up to bat against…nobody, aka a mixed bag of relievers from up and down the Dodgers’ bullpen depth-chart from the 1st inning onward. On Monday, there’s an old-fashioned mismatch in Texas even though the Rangers have a real life starting pitcher taking the mound. Garrit Cole’s fire on the rubber has helped the New York Yankees turn things around, and he’ll be taking on Jordan Lyles, a player who has struggled against lesser batting lineups than the Pinstripes in ’21. Odds of (-160) on the Yankee Run Line are a tad juiced, but Over (8) is a good safety-valve wager, as there appears to be no way Lyles can stand up to his next opponent and prevent big rallies, so any surprise scoring from the Lone Stars would easily push the final score over the Sin City number.

Picks: Yankees (-1.5) and Over (8) 

5/17/21

Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB speculators waited long into the night on opening odds for Dodgers-Marlins on Sunday. Los Angeles is threatening to sweep the 3-game meeting after a pair of powerhouse performances, scoring 16 combined runs and shutting down the scrappy Fish on Saturday in a 7-0 drubbing. L.A. is taking a bullpen day for the series closer, but bookies are so confident in the Bums; stable that the consensus O/U rests at (7.5) runs with L.A. the 1-to-2 ML favorite.

The defending World Series champs could prove to be trending up once again, while last year’s Cinderella ballclub trends downward. Dodger momentum will be buoyed by the team’s move to acquire Albert Pujols, showing that management wants to take another kick at the can in 2021 and prove that the Bums can win a full-length pennant race and a standard championship.

But the hosts’ 4-game winning streak doesn’t seem long for the world, thanks to a ledger of injuries that could make Sunday a challenge. Visiting starter Pablo Lopez looked awful against Arizona in his last outing, but he’s a brand new face at Dodger Stadium and had had 2 excellent starts in games prior. L.A. has listed so many injuries in the bullpen that Dave Roberts must stay cautious if Miami happens to produce rallies. Run Line bets ought not to be close to 1-to-1 as the Marlins anticipate a last chance to stay relevant in May.

Picks: Marlins (+1.5) and Over (7.5)

St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

Another threatened series-sweep is happening a couple hours away from Dodger Stadium in SoCal, as the San Diego Padres stand (-123) favorites to win a 3rd-straight ballgame vs St. Louis on Sunday Night Baseball. San Diego 1st-baseman Austin Nola nearly blasted the Redbirds back to the Midwest by himself in Saturday’s 13-3 win for the Pads.

Based on early line movement, bettors appear to like Kwang-Hyun Kim of the Cardinals to win a pitcher’s duel with Ryan Weathers, even though the former hurler has less victories and a less-strong ERA on the young season. Weathers left a ballgame early with arm soreness 2 weeks ago, but there’s no mystery about the benefits of rest in what could become a test of endurance.

The Padres have owned the Cardinals at Petco Park as of late, showing no pity for the Cards’ bugaboo batting issues. San Diego’s lineup bothered Kim in multiple innings last September. St. Louis probably isn’t headed for a disastrous slump, but it’s not as if the Redbirds are defending vs a sweep-against at home, and chances are we’ll see “Cards rebound from sweep in SoCal” headlines soon enough, as opposed to STL stemming the Pacific tide on SNB.

Pick: Padres

5/16/21

Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting action quickly turned the Washington Nationals into a bona-fide favorite for Saturday, as clips went viral from the Nats’ blistering blow-out of Arizona on Friday night. Washington’s bats produced 17 runs, including 6 tallies in the 1st inning alone, and 22 hits paced by a career day from catcher Yan Gomes. To further the hosts’ embarrassment, the Diamondbacks added 3 errors.

How will the Snakes respond with a day to fume? An Over/Under total of (9) runs might appear to be based on fireworks in the series opener, but long-term handicapping could make runs seem likely as well. Arizona’s offense has flourished at home in terms of 40+ game sample-size numbers. Luke Weaver and visiting Joe Ross aren’t too intimidating on the mound.

Arizona’s bats have been quiet lately, though, and the home team is likely to bear-down on defense as proud MLB athletes under fire. The last-place Nationals have been so mediocre from the plate that if D.C. loses this weekend, the D-Backs might have to cover 4/5ths of the total themselves to cover O/U lines approaching double-digits. The best reason to bet Under (9) is Weaver’s experience against the Nationals this spring, after having proven his mettle as a batting scout by stoning Miami just 5 days after giving-up rallies to the Fish.

Pick: Under

St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

The buzz is building for a battle by the beach, as the San Diego Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals for a series in which the Redbirds were slow out of the gate but woke up late in Friday’s opener. The wide gap between STL’s moneyline (+115) and Run Line (-180) for Saturday night’s contest reflects a cautious handicap of only (7) total runs.

St. Louis has a reputation as a wiffle-ball team with fine pitching, but the Cardinals have found a key to success from the plate while taking over the early NL Central race. No one on the Redbird roster is batting above .300 but the club’s team average is healthy enough to do damage, with players up and down the lineup swatting home runs and extra-base hits. Meanwhile, the Padres enjoyed streaks of good batting in a handful of recent road games.

Adam Wainwright’s start should make the Cardinals at least a (-110) wager, as Wainwright gives every impression of a hurler rounding into stretch-run shape, while opposing Chris Paddack has been a shaky hurler on a short leash. STL’s records in San Diego and west-coast road trips are angles clouded by the Cards being a well-motivated club on a hot streak. The Pads have been batting poorly at Petco Park despite OK plate discipline, which means there’s something amiss psychologically other than the pressure of a winning W/L mark.

Pick: Cardinals

5/14/21

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

Note: WagerBop predicted the Royals-at-White Sox run total on Friday evening while going by an erroneous schedule. Due to the addition of a ballgame in the afternoon and the resulting doubleheader, Friday’s game will last only 7 innings. 

Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners have outplayed expectations so far in 2021, so much so that Las Vegas is giving a blue-collar MLB club the benefit of the doubt for once. Cleveland dealt Seattle its 5th loss in as many games on Thursday behind a home run from José Ramírez and 7 no-hit innings from Zach Plesac. Still, the Indians are merely a (-118) favorite for Friday night’s follow-up.

What’s behind such counterintuitive odds? Cleveland could be called lucky for winning a trio of 1-run ballgames during a hot streak that’s lasted almost 2 solid weeks, not to mention snagging 4 relatively-easy wins over the KC Royals. Friday’s visiting starter Aaron Civale has to lose a game sometime after starting the year 5-0, and Chris Flexen of Seattle will make a formidable foe.

Pundits are often guilty of missing the forest for the trees, and it would take a lot more than Chris Flexen’s skills to make Seattle a true favorite on Friday. Yes, the Mariners have played well against the Indians in recent series, but the Cleveland ML is still just (-118) on a sizzling-hot club with an ace starter against a team that could be headed into a free-fall.

Pick: Indians 

5/13/21

Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox

Sports gamblers have been flocking to pick low-side totals bets more often as legal online betting becomes more common, thanks to countless blogs advising players against “recreational” wagers designed for cheering. But there are ballgames for which all the caution-flags in the world can’t prevent speculators from impulse-buying a side, such as the series closer at Fenway Park on Thursday evening.

Oakland has already won the 3-night meeting by at least a single game, invading Beantown with quality pitching and (almost) error-free fielding. Nice batting from shortstop Elvis Andrus and a few other Athletics has produced enough runs for the visitors to win twice – not that it has taken fireworks from the plate with the Red Sox scoring 3 runs in 18 frames. Boston starter Garrett Richards is far from a sure bet to outpitch Oakland’s Sean Manaea, helping draw action to the guests’ ML while the Red Sox line (-108) fattens slightly.

However, the fact remains that a very good MLB team defending against a potential series-sweep on home turf can be a tough out, or at least a tough 27 outs. Boston might have leveled-off for the time being, but with both clubs reasonably healthy, we can expect a desperate and likely-winning effort from the Red Sox against an Oakland lineup that’s barely scoring 4 runs per game on the road.

Pick: Red Sox 

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

Another “defending against the sweep” scenario in the American League is getting overlooked due to renewed hype around the New York Yankees, who have won the first 2 ballgames of a 3-game stand in Tampa Bay. There’s no reason for the Rays’ moneyline (+135) to be as close to perfect 1-to-1 odds as the Run Line on Tampa (+1.5) (-135), as fans who are looking at Rich Hill vs Jameson Tallion and expecting a mismatch are seeing through pinstriped glasses. However, Tampa Bay’s higher-risk Run Line remains the higher % pick by far, since the Rays have played 3 single-run games in their last 5 outings, and would seem far too focused and filled with urgency to get blown away by the Yankees on Thursday.

Pick: Rays Run Line 

5/12/21

L.A. Angels at Houston Astros

There’s another bargain moneyline waiting for wise MLB speculators on Wednesday, and it’s in Space City, where an initial favorites’ ML on Houston in an Angels-at-Astros series closer almost immediately tightened into a 1-to-1 line at the open of betting action a day prior. Los Angeles has split 2 games at Minute Maid Park to stay above .500 as an underdog, a lone bright spot for gamblers tied to the Halos.

Andrew Heaney is the Angel starter ‘cappers are confident in, and Heaney definitely deserved better from his last appearance against Tampa Bay, fanning 10 Rays batters and allowing no earned runs only to watch the bullpen allow a snowman. Opposing hurler José Urquidy isn’t that kind of horse to ride, but as is often the case, there’s more than meets the eye in his numbers.

Urquidy is getting put-outs by the bushel without striking out a lot of players, kind of a modern-day Dennis Eckersley tactic that could be kryptonite for a Los Angeles lineup geared for slugging and keeping the ball in the air. Houston has begun to gather momentum after being knocked down a peg in April, and has been averaging (depending on the sample size) around 7 runs per-game against the L.A. Angels.

Pick: Astros 

Seattle Mariners at L.A. Dodgers

The “weighted bat” metaphor takes on special significance in the game from whence it originally sprang. Las Vegas believes Julio Urias of the L.A. Dodgers will benefit from hurling against the “wiffle bats” of Seattle after going through some episodes against the Angels, Brewers, and Reds, an angle which helped O/U (8) open with (+105) odds on the high side. However, the same could be true in reverse for scheduled Ms starter Justin Dunn, who looked pretty good against Baltimore prior to taking on the defending World Series champs. L.A.’s (-110) Run Line is juiced out of all value, but O(8) is a nice bet at bargain prices.

Pick: Over 

5/11/21

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

Las Vegas sportsbooks quickly corrected themselves on Colorado vs San Diego’s total, posting an Over/Under total of (9) and not (8) for Tuesday’s accidental opener. Which of Tuesday’s run totals could be inaccurate or mispriced as of Monday night, as bookmakers offer plus-odds on “Over” bets and dare speculators to take the high-side during a trend of cautious MLB games?

Over (7) for the Mets and Orioles is a nice fat market at (+105), but probable starters Marcus Stroman and John Means are reliable bat-killers this spring, and New York has been good on offense at home while Baltimore has been better from the plate in away games. Besides, both clubs have been crushing it in the rivalry from a run-scoring POV. Milwaukee vs St. Louis, while missing some sizzle (literally) in the brisk setting of Wisconsin, provides a better chance to win on a Tuesday O/U.

Freddy Peralta is pitching against Kwang Hyun Kim, a name-brand starting hurlers’ match-up. But neither man’s stats or stamina have been otherworldly in spring, and (+105) on O(7.5) is too pessimistic for Brewers-Cardinals no matter how well the NL Central clubs play defensively in the ballgame. St. Louis is scoring 5+ runs per game on the road, and Milwaukee is due for positive reversion at American Family Field. Both teams remain banged-up in the bullpen.

Pick: Over 

Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox

Another MLB gambler’s gold rush to the low-side of a total characterizes action on Chicago vs Minnesota, a Tuesday opener at Guaranteed Rate Field. A divisional match-up between the struggling Twins and the host White Sox (-125) comes with with an (8.5) O/U line that’s getting more and more juiced on U(8.5), as speculators ponder an MLB landscape of ground balls and strike-outs that’s even got Coors Field run totals dipping below the current O/U number in Chi-Town.

There are reasons to doubt both batting orders, beginning with the Twins’ spring slump that includes a dismal series loss to the Texas Rangers and last weekend’s depressing split with Detroit. As for the ChiSox, a breezy sweep of the KC Royals felt easy enough, but a pair of previous shut-out losses to Cincinnati and Cleveland show what good pitching and quality defense can do to a developing team’s fragile formula for success.

Did anyone notice the tight moneyline on a ballgame between 2 disparate clubs? Probable visiting pitcher Kenta Maeda (who’s bound for an AEW title run with Kenny Omega on name-brand alone) seemed to find his form in giving Minnesota its only win over the Lone Stars, though a week’s rest helps to make Maeda’s appearance a question mark. No such uncertainty should surround Dylan Cease of the White Sox. Tuesday’s hosts have a bright upside, but more importantly, they’re playing up to that ceiling – at least for now – while the Twins labor to compete.

Pick: White Sox 

5/10/21

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

Major League Baseball betting for Tuesday, May 10th began with a pair of wild O/U line-movements, as if runs had been lifted from 1 total and added to another. An anticipated duel between Gibson and Wood is not only making the San Francisco vs Texas O/U line plummet, it’s threatening to pull the moneyline tighter than a guitar string. Meanwhile in Baltimore, a Monday closer between the sinking Orioles and the red-hot Boston Red Sox (-136) is inspiring so many high-side bets that the total jumped 1.5 runs after opening.

The prevailing handicap is understandable seeing as though probable pitcher Jorge Lopez has been inadequate for the O-Birds, while visiting starter Martin Perez is 0-2. However, the line has already risen logically to (8.5) and it’s too late to get in on the gold rush now.

Look instead to a favorites’ ML that’s tightened thanks to the good old “home team defending against potential sweep” angle. In the landscape of 2021 said angle is better utilized when a talented host has lost 2 hard-luck games of a 3-game stint. The Baltimore Orioles, conversely, are overwhelmed by a cranked-up contender, and probably know it inside the clubhouse.

Pick: Red Sox 

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

St. Louis’ 4-0 win over Colorado on Sunday was half-expected to be rained out, raising the conundrum of betting on MLB games threatened by nasty weather forecasts. It’s frustrating to think that a missed opportunity and a push could occur. However, the weather can also give speculators a leg-up on Sin City by creating angles not factored into opening consensus lines. To wit, take the (+100) price on O(8) vs (-120) for U(8) offered for Monday’s Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres contest, a sorely-needed return home for the Rox.

Yes, the STL series was a new low point for the Rockies, at least with bats in hand. The last-place club was held scoreless in 24 out of 27 innings, and shut out in promising batting conditions on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Pads have played in a few low-scoring series of their own recently, including a snoozefest with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

But the Denver ballplayers still know how to score in thin, friendly air, averaging 6+ runs per game at Coors Field. San Diego is expected to trot-out Dinelson Lamet, a hurler plagued with injuries, to go against 1-3 Antonio Senzatela. Wind may blow inward, but the temperature won’t abide blazing sliders, and the Padres have actually been a solid hitting team on the road. If the ballgame is postponed into a doubleheader on Tuesday, strongly consider the high side on any similar line with a similar pitching match-up for either 9 innings.

Pick: Over

5/9/21

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs

Anchor detail! Sin City’s run total for Sunday’s series closer between Chicago and visiting Pittsburgh has sunk 20,000 leagues below the sea, or at least a handful of tallies below the median average at (6) runs even after opening at (6.5). The noteworthy number calls into focus a pair of batting orders which have been swinging for the fences with inconsistent results.

It’s true that Pittsburgh’s offense is sagging badly on the road, as evidenced by the Cubs needing only 6 runs to manufacture a pair of 1-run victories and threaten a sweep at Wrigley Field. Starting hurlers Kyle Hendricks and Tyler Anderson’s legit numbers also belie a pair of 2-3 W/L records. No Pirates game has tallied 7+ runs since 5/1.

Hendricks was terrific in his last outing, and Cubs’ bats have been alive and kicking against southpaws like Anderson. Sportsbooks are offering Chicago at (+130) on the Run Line, as close to a coin-flip outcome as you’ll see at that price. But don’t forget Hendricks is a game removed from humiliation against Atlanta. If the Pirates’ streak of low-side O/U outcomes is bound to end with a bang, Sunday’s ballgame might provide the scenario.

Pick: Chicago (-1.5) and/or Over

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia is causing all kinds of problems for the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park, an indicator that the Braves’ current (+108) moneyline for Sunday Night Baseball could be about to shrink considerably. Betting on MLB clubs to ward-off rallying rivals in series closers at home is a time-honored trope, and Atlanta’s got momentum after a great comeback and 8-7 extra-innings win on Saturday. As always, though, the “system” pick must be vetted in case conditions don’t really apply or for the potential of an anomaly on the scoreboard.

Both teams were living large and confident coming into the series – that’s a positive for the defending-home-pride angle. Atlanta has been scoring a lot of runs at home, but depended on pitching and defense to help earn 3 straight Ws over the Washington Nationals and remain in touch with the division leaders. Philadelphia’s 12-2 opening win was a shock in a series expected to be as hotly contested as Friday’s nail-biter. But it could be the “anomaly” in the mix.

Visiting starter Aaron Nola can keep Atlanta’s bats quiet, while Huascar Ynoa of the Braves should shut down a Philly lineup that’s lagged in OBP when traveling. To prefer a pick on an opening (8) run O/U total is not to disregard the psychology of the Phils’ success, because both lineups will play desperate defense looking for an edge, and the teams’ bullpens are healthier than most, poised to help both managers wiggle out of jams in a slow-burn SNB duel.

Pick: Under

5/8/21

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

It’s hard to imagine hype playing a huge role in MLB odds until June or July. After all, pundits don’t expect dominant clubs and players to emerge until summer in a typical season. But the buzz around Joe Musgrove persists despite the San Diego hurler’s 2-3 record, and it’s causing San Francisco’s (+1.5) Run Line to grow closer to 1-to-1 odds than the Pads’ ML on Saturday.

With a marquee pitching match-up of Kevin Gausman taking on Musgrove, the ballgame’s O/U total is steady at a low (7) runs. Yet for some reason, almost every sportsbook’s numbers are giving the Padres a 30-40% chance to blow out Gigantes, with betting handles increasing on San Diego’s side even as San Francisco held the upper hand in a tight Friday contest.

San Diego is a phantom favorite. Wind blowing to the outfield will benefit the club that makes contact more often and puts more runners on 1st base, and the Giants have paradoxically had far better plate discipline at home than away. Musgrove has already been dinged-around once by the Giants.

Pick: Giants (+125) or (+1.5) (-150)

Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros

Have the Houston Astros finally shaken-off an April swoon? Houston was headed for an early pole position in the American League when the ‘Stros were swept by visiting Detroit, among the worst teams in Major League Baseball. But the club has recently beaten Tampa Bay in a series, and whipped Toronto 10-4 on Friday behind 3 hits from Alex Bregman, casting the hosts as a thin favorite for a Saturday evening ballgame with a falling (8.5) O/U total.

Should the words “Steven Matz” and “Under (8.5)” ever cling in conjunction? No offense to Toronto’s probable starter, but he’s given up 11 earned runs in less than 9 innings in 2 starts against smaller bats than Houston’s. What’s worse, opposing hurler Cristian Javier is off to a nuclear-hot start in 2021, though the unbeaten Javier did show some cracks in his last appearance.

Line-movement shows a plurality of handicappers concerned with Saturday’s run total, which is understandable, since each team’s pitching stable is riddled with injuries and the O/U outcome could hinge on Javier’s stamina. But with a potential pitching mismatch and the Blue Jays cooling off while the Astros heat up, are totals-bettors missing the forest for the trees? Houston’s (-140) moneyline odds are about where payoff on (-0.5) ATS should be.

Pick: Astros and/or Over

5/7/21

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers

Don’t look now, but the Texas Rangers have been playing decent baseball since getting swept by the Chicago White Sox in April. Texas has gone 6-2 in a pair of arduous 4-game series and can hope to get above the .500 mark during a series with the visiting Seattle Mariners. Friday night’s opener is handicapped with identical (-110) Las Vegas odds on both clubs.

Chris Flexen’s disappointing start against the L.A. Angels could be the chief reason Seattle isn’t favored. Flexen whiffed 0 batters in 4 innings and gave up 3 runs, not a splendid outing en route to facing a Texas Rangers team hungry to put real distance between the Lone Stars and last place. You don’t need to pronounce the name of opposing starter Mike Foltynewicz so long as you know how to pronounce “adequate.”

Seattle has bested Texas in recent meetings, but the correlation of right vs left handed starting hurlers with Texas’ wins and losses is illusory, and Foltynewicz could actually out-last Flexen on the mound on Friday. MLB underdogs and cellar-dwellers tend to lose all the time but just get hot every so often. There’s only 1 club on a hot streak coming into the series in question.

Pick: Rangers

Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals

It’s reasonable to think Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals will have an off day sooner than later, the 5-0 hurler being fortunate enough to have his team score double-digits in multiple Ws so far this season. But the Redbirds’ (-1.5) Run Line is priced too ordinarily (-108) to avoid taking the percentage pick on Friday evening, considering the Colorado Rockies’ overall problems and St. Louis’ rise to 1st place in the NL Central. Rox starter Austin Gomber has been putrid, while the Cardinals’ offense actually looks pretty good and adequately powerful for a change. STL has been worlds better ATS in 2021.

Pick: Cardinals Run Line 

5/6/21

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

Looking at the betting trends for Washington vs Atlanta on Thursday evening, it’s as if the Atlanta Braves had lost the opening 2 ballgames of a 3-game series, not the Nationals. It also wouldn’t be surprising if the more famous of 2 starting pitchers appeared for the visitors. Neither is the case as the Braves (-119) crush the Nats in drawn moneyline action that’s influenced Washington’s (+1.5) Run Line into the 1-to-1.5 range.

Jon Lester’s $5,000,000 contract the Nationals is not without its share of detractors, considering the 37 year-old’s decay as a Chicago Cubs workhorse prior to the pandemic. But a pair of Braves covers ATS has helped make bettors confident that Drew Smyly will be adequate to lead an Atlanta sweep. WagerBop isn’t so sure, considering that Washington will play hard to avoid an embarrassing sweep-against at home, while Lester’s last outing against Miami showcased the effictive style of an old pro who doesn’t mind adapting his tactics.

The best way for a creaking hurler to stay in Major League Baseball is to become Dennis Eckersley and make batters swat softballs for frames at a time. Just because Lester isn’t in vintage form doesn’t mean a newly-cautious player can’t out-pitch Smyly, who’s been beyond dreadful in 3 starts.

Picks: Nationals Run Line and Over (9)

Tampa Bay Rays at L.A. Angels

There is no such national TV brand as “Thursday Night Baseball,” and if there were such an animal, praise Jove it wouldn’t end up a blunder-bowl like the NFL’s weekday games often devolve into. But the L.A. Angels and Tampa Bay Rays are starting so late that the ballgame could stretch into Friday’s wee hours. Barring extra innings in Miami, the contest will be stand-alone.

Moneylines are drawn tight as the Angels vs Rays O/U total falls to (8) runs, following an initial suggestion of (8.5) out of Sin City. That’s a strange turn considering that the Halos are getting healthier and that the Rays have been averaging about 6 runs per-game in recent outings with L.A. Fans are tired of watching their high-side bets lose as late-spring hardball turns cautious.

You’d think nobody stopped to look at the pitching. Visiting starter Collin McHugh is a wild card whose stamina isn’t adequate to overcome Tampa Bay’s excoriated bullpen even if he does have a good game. Angel starter Andrew Heaney was destroyed by the Seattle Mariners’ lineup on 4/30. Only 4 of the clubs’ last 12 ballgames have tallied less than 9 total runs.

Pick: Over 

5/5/21

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox

Wednesday night’s best MLB betting opportunity comes at Fenway Park, where the Boston Red Sox defeated the Detroit Tigers 11-7 in a 3-game series opener on Tuesday. Detroit looked like a Cinderella ballclub after a series sweep of the Astros in April, but the Tigers have been a sad sack since then, winning just 2 out of 16 games. Still, the Red Sox are a fat (+110) on Wednesday’s (-1.5) Run Line.

To be sure, there are reasons to doubt the gambling value of a Boston team that’s flatlined as a short-odds favorite, dealing with inconsistency on home turf and failing to drive-in runners. Wednesday starter Martin Perez has dropped 2 decisions without a victory in 2021.

Yet the Tigers are as close to a genuine patsy as anyone in a contrived pro league full of competitive parity. Detroit is a few more shut-out losses from a runs-per-game average that would make Patrick Roy proud as a goals-against average. The chill at Fenway will help Boston punish Detroit starter Casey Mize more than it will help the Tigers solve Perez, and the Red Sox have been whipping the visitors in far more than the current series-meeting. Detroit hasn’t been losing many of its ballgames by a single run and is 8-17 against Run Lines since the Houston miracle.

Pick: Red Sox (-1.5) 

Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies

It’s not often you see a ballclub with the superior W/L record and an outstanding hurler taking the mound with near-1-to-1 moneyline odds to win, but that’s the scenario in Philadelphia on Wednesday evening, where the Phillies are only a (+117) underdog despite facing Freddy Peralta in the 3rd of 4 ballgames at Citizens Bank Park.

Philly has won the opening 2 games by 1-run scores to climb to the .500 mark. Brad Miller is a hero after hitting a 3-run shot on Tuesday, but the broader narrative includes a potential Milwaukee slump following a hot start. The Brew Crew recently lost a series to Miami and blew a chance to sweep the L.A. Dodgers before dropping 2 more ballgames against the NL East.

If the Brewers are beginning to swoon, other factors outweigh any consideration of the Phillies as an underdog bet. Starting P Chase Anderson is off to a rough start, and the Brewers have outplayed the Phils in recent meetings. Milwaukee is still 9-4 on the road in ’21.

Pick: Brewers 

5/4/21

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

There are 2 ballgames on Tuesday’s mid-evening slate with rapidly changing odds and a gold-rush to bet on the favorite. Chicago’s White Sox are a popular, thin favorite over the Cincinnati Reds. Atlanta’s moneyline is also at (-135) and shrinking payoff if the Braves defeat the host Nationals in a series-opening ballgame. While neither favored club’s odds to win is the highest % pick, the latter contest’s betting action points the way to a fade-the-public angle on a different market. Atlanta’s perceived pitching advantage is probably a mirage, since as good as expected starter Huascar Ynoa might have been against the Chicago Cubs, he’s been just as bad as that earlier in spring.

Joe Ross of Washington showed comparable stamina and superior form in his last outing on 4/24. The O/U total has shifted up to (9) runs as high-rollers get excited about each team’s bats, but that’s the fatal angle of all. Atlanta’s scoring less than 4 runs per game on the road and Washington’s lineup has been even worse at Nationals Park.

Pick: Under

New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals

School children from St. Louis are still taught reading, writing, arithmetic, and that the New York Mets are pond scum. Rivalry vinegar aside, Sin City pundits expect algae to rise to the top (see what we did there?) when the Metropolitans face the Redbirds in the 2nd of 4 ballgames at Busch Stadium on Tuesday.

The STL-NY series opened with a strange game in which bullpens far outshone starting pitchers. “Under” bets lost quickly as bats combined for 11 runs in 3 innings, but that was it for the scoring as New York lost a frustrating outcome 6-5. Pete Alonzo whacked 3 hits without an RBI, epitomizing the wasted effort over 6 closing frames. A probable start from Jacob deGrom against host hurler Johan Oviedo has helped the Mets to a (-190) Tuesday moneyline and a high-risk Run Line.

Oviedo probably won’t have the superior night, but speculators are too quick to overlook NY’s poor batting stats while disregarding the other offense thanks to the Cardinals’ small-ball reputation. St. Louis has owned recent series with the New York Mets and has the stronger W/L mark. The threat of cold showers and a fly-ball slowing crosswind are elements of pure chance, making the Cards’ (+1.5) feel like “teaser” points for an unpredictable game with only a (6.5) run total.

Pick: Cardinals Run Line 

5/3/21

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies

Monday night’s series opener in Denver is an example of a scenario not seen often in Major League Baseball this season – a definite underdog that turns into a definite favorite. The Colorado Rockies opened as a (+115) moneyline wager, only to wind up at an eye-rubbing (-115) odds to beat the visiting San Francisco Giants. It’s not just the Gigantes’ immense list of injuries driving bets. Colorado has been outscoring teams at Coors Field. Rox batters are swinging for contact at all costs, using the advantage of mile high air earlier in the season that opponents are able to adjust. Colorado is 10-18 overall while San Francisco is 17-11. For Monday, however, gamblers are factoring that both SPs have had episodes. That’s true enough, except San Fran starter Aaron Sanchez has simply been more efficient than a 1-2 German Marquez has been for the hosts. That’s not a great reason to pick Over(10) runs because the Giants are an O-killer. San Francisco is the lean at fortuitous odds, and a 5-innings bet would take the bullpen’s injury bug mostly out of the equation.

Pick: Giants (5 Innings)

Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners

WagerBop’s soft spot for low-key American League ballgames led to a line-forecast and a provisional pick for Mariners-Orioles late on Monday night. However, waiting patiently (all night and AM, in fact) for odds to arrive and settle has been to no avail! Please check back and join us for a special evening-hour pick on a weekday nightcap by 6 PM EST. Update: Oddsmakers finally crawled to the finish line with a (+125) opening moneyline on Baltimore, the handicap focused on a pitching duo that took extra time to suss out, host hurler Justin Dunn vs visiting Jorge Lopez. Lopez has been more serviceable than his poor ERA shows, but he’ll be throwing on only a few days’ rest. Gamblers are siding with Baltimore based on the O-Birds’ excellent road record and the fact that Dunn hasn’t done so much as to tower over Lopez in superiority. However, an O/U (8.5) line provides the better bet, since there are more well-argued reasons for why Dunn won’t last 6 innings than reasons why Lopez could have a miracle outing.

Pick: Over 

5/2/21

Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics

Baltimore is making hay while the sun shines in NorCal, defeating the Oakland Athletes twice to threaten a rare underdog visitors’ sweep on Sunday afternoon. Oakland is the (-180) ML favorite based in-part on the popular MLB betting system in which speculators wager on a home team to stave-off embarrassment rather than capitulate and lose to a visiting sweep.

There seem to be solid reasons to bet Baltimore’s (+1.5) Run Line, starting with the O-Birds having won 3 games in a row and 5 out of 7. Oakland could avoid getting swept without winning the ballgame by 2+ runs, in fact, the A’s might be more likely to play small-ball in late innings to squeeze out a 1-run win and avoid disaster.

However, the match-up on the mound amounts to efficiency vs liability. Host hurler Sean Manaea has gotten better each time out this spring, while Baltimore’s expected SP Bruce Zimmerman has regressed from start to start. The Orioles aren’t getting on base enough in early innings to negate a marked disadvantage over the first 5-6 frames on Sunday.

Pick: Athletics Run Line (-1.5)

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

Sin City’s run total for a Sunday Night Baseball date between the visiting New York Mets and host Philadelphia Phillies opened at O/U(8), seemingly an optimistic number given that each club is struggling to score. Bryce Harper is banged up, 2 of the Phils’ last 3 wins were by a 2-1 final, and the Mets have crossed home plate a grand total of 2 times in 3 ballgames. Those factors are tempered by a pitching card that looks shaky on both sides. Zach Eflin hasn’t hit his stride for Philadelphia and David Peterson of New York took part in the 12-run ChiSox-over-Mets demolition on 4/21.

When angles cancel out, look to history, and occasionally the weather in Philadelphia. Batting orders may indeed come alive against less-scary pitching, but they’ll need help the way things have been going, and a 15 MPH wind blowing toward center field should be a boon. Philadelphia looks like the team with an actual chance to score 6-7 runs in the game, but consider that the New York offense has had success against this opponent in recent battles.

Pick: Over

5/1/21

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

Saturday afternoon’s ballgame at Target Field is a “target” for deceptive statistics, and no, we’re not talking about Kansas City’s W/L record compared to the Minnesota Twins’ disappointing April mark. An O/U total of (8) on the Twins and slight-underdog Royals 2nd of 4 ballgames on Saturday ticked up to (8.5) on Friday evening, thanks in-part to the clubs’ early success from the plate in Friday’s series opener.

Season stats show a pair of healthy offenses, but fans of each team know better than that. Starting P Matt Shoemaker’s bad start compared to visiting hurler Danny Duffy’s fine April is the only thing keeping Minnesota from solid favorite’s odds as MLB gamblers expect reversion to begin rearing its ugly head on the Royals.

There’s no trend that says big, strong lineups are apt to knock upstart teams back to Earth if they’re not on solid footing themselves. Duffy is indeed capable of striking-out the Minnesota Twins, who have had a couple of spurts of good batting in midst of a frigid April. But look at Kansas City’s recent scores, and W/L record aside, there’s no reason to assume KC can beat up on Shoemaker or a healthy Twins bullpen.

Pick: Under 

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

If you’re going to handicap an MLB contest prior to the previous ballgame of the series being completed, it’s best to choose a scenario such as Saturday’s game between Arizona and visiting Colorado. Saturday isn’t the series closer, and the Diamondbacks already won a tight ballgame on Friday, setting the stage for a scientific rather than an emotional outing at Chase Field. Arizona’s popular ML belies a stubborn Run Line payoff of (+115) as pundits ponder the Rockies’ chances.

The opponents are comparable. Colorado is batting surprisingly OK for a 9-16 club, and while the Rox aren’t walking nearly enough, you can’t always slam Colorado for bad plate discipline because swatting the ball in-play isn’t an unwise tactic at Coors Field. Arizona’s live lumber has fans annoyed that the D-Backs aren’t slithering above .500.

But there’s no comparison of current form from Saturday’s starting hurlers. Arizona’s Zac Gallen recently stoned the Atlanta Braves for 7 innings following a weird outing vs Cincinnati. Austin Gomber of Colorado was a goner just 5 outs into a blow-out loss after getting pulverized by the Giants – the Giants! – batting lineup on April 26th.

Pick: Diamondbacks (-1.5) 

4/30/21

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

It’s a tale of 2 wagers involving New York baseball clubs on Friday, with the sexier bet of the pair also the less valuable. The Yankees are solid Run Line favorites to blow away the visiting Detroit Tigers, and a start from Garrit Cole is supposed to tame Detroit’s bats while a 20 MPH wind helps the Bronx Bombers bomb away. But the Yanks’ early-season struggles could resurface against the fine-fielding Tigers, and low O/U totals (7.5) don’t mix well with (-1.5) point spreads. Meanwhile, the Mets are the “sober” bet to beat the Phillies at about (-140) odds. Expected host-starter Chase Anderson is off to a miserable start, and the Metropolitans will benefit from “weighted bats” after taking on titan after titan in rough series.

Pick: Mets

L.A. Angels at Seattle Mariners

There appear to be tempting reasons for betting the high-side of a Mariners vs Angels total (8) that’s sitting at standard (-110) payoff odds for the ballclubs’ series opener on Friday night. The breeze will be blowing toward center field, each team is averaging 4+ runs per game, and the rivalry has produced high scores for a while.

Is it wise to ignore trends as they’re forming, though, while paying attention once the numbers have congealed further? Friday night’s starting hurlers Chris Flexen and Andrew Heaney have shown the ability to last beyond a standard 5-6 innings in 2021, a crucial component to quality 9-inning defense in a spring riddled with bullpen injuries. But unlike the case with many lineups around Major League Baseball, a plurality of injuries for Seattle and L.A. are not in the relief pitching stables but elsewhere.

Flexen began 2021 poorly and then started flexin’ with improved starts worthy of trending-up status. Heaney was outstanding against the Mariners late in 2020. With each club struggling to generate runs at the moment, it’s only worthwhile to bet the low side of the run total before any more head room is lost.

Pick: Under 

4/29/21

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

The NHL’s 2021 alignment has kept skaters (mostly) safe in “COVID bubbles,” but Major League Baseball knows that craftsmen traveling across time zones is part of the romance of sports, allowing series like Milwaukee vs L.A, to take place. Saturday’s cool opener in Wisconsin is expected to feature cool bats.

The Bums are cast as a (-152) favorite behind Trevor Bauer, and the presence of Freddy Peralta of the Brew Crew has the O/U total locked at (7.5) with a (+100) payoff on winning O(7.5) wagers. Many handicappers will view the latter as a suckers’ line. But are there trends pointing to a high-side outcome? Sure, the Dodgers keep landing on “under” on the road, but they’re winning for over-bets night after night as of late. None of either team’s last 3 ballgames have gone under 7.5 total runs, and for L.A. you’ve got to go back to 4/23 to find a game that did. Both bullpens are wounded. The roof could keep players and fans dry if expected showers arrive, but it can’t keep the air from holding the baseball aloft.

PIck: Over (+100)

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers

Not to keep throwing MLB “Over” picks at you, ‘Boppers, but a line of (8.5) total runs for Texas vs Boston on Thursday evening seems too good to pass up.

The prevailing handicap is that Texas will use a pitching advantage gained by starting Kyle Gibson on the mound against Martin Perez to make hay and potentially take a lead on the BoSox, only for a superior Boston batting order to bring the visitors back in the end. Maybe the Red Sox cover the Run Line in that scenario, and maybe they don’t, but (8.5) is a pretty small number to reflect all that likely business. Perez is potentially a weak link in the guests’ rotation and his lineup knows it needs runs early to gain the hurler a cushion.

Pick: Over 

4/28/21

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox

Maybe folks can’t get used to gambling on the ChiSox as they would another MLB contender. Chicago’s season is going well enough that the White Sox were able to defeat Cleveland in a 1-off before sweeping the Texas Rangers over the weekend, but Tuesday’s 5-2 loss in the series opener with visiting Detroit has the White Sox Run Line odds stuck in neutral gear at (-110) for Wednesday’s folllow-up ballgame. Surely a Yankees or Astros team that stood at 12-10 would get more of a nod from Sin City, considering that Detroit’s game has totally fallen apart following some hopeful spark in April. Detroit is coming off an opposing sweep from the Kansas City Royals, and already pulled off its 2-to-1 upset of the new series yesterday.

Pick: White Sox (-1.5) 

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

San Francisco’s bats are beginning to come alive following a strange hot streak in which the club relied almost entirely on pitching and defense to work through tense innings and improve Gigantes’ W/L mark. Yet plenty of gamblers are ready to wager on Colorado’s (-170) underdog Run Line for Wednesday night considering that the Rockies snapped back from a 12-0 drubbing to even the series 1-1 on Tuesday. San Francisco money line speculators would point out that Alex Wood is expected to outpitch German Marquez of the visiting Rox.

Look again at the lines, and a better “percentage” pick emerges immediately. Over/Under (7) is a wildly low number for ballclubs who’ve produced 24 runs in 18 innings already, and Wood hasn’t fared extremely well against Colorado in years past. San Francisco’s trend of “Under” outcomes has vanished, and the Rockies are trending-over. Last but not least, near-20 MPH wind is expected to blow straight at the center field wall, more than negating the heavy ocean air.

Pick: Over 

4/27/21

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians

One of the problems pro handicappers have is an obsession with “the number,” a belief that finding the right line is more important than predictions, intuition, or reducing juice. Preoccupation with numbers can lead to the flaw of looking at teams as stat sheets on a ledger, without regard for the fact that 162 ballgames’ worth of “leveled-out” statistics are the product of many emotional twists and turns. Such a scenario could be occurring in Cleveland, where the odds on Tuesday’s game with the visiting Minnesota Twins are drawn tight despite what appears to be serious advantages for a side.

Probable hurler Kenta Maeda of the Twins is having a troubled start to match his own ballclub’s awful April, while opposing Aaron Civale of the Indians has been efficient in a 3-0 season so far. There appears to be some kind of irrational belief that the Minnesota Twins’ slump can end at any time, or at least a reliance on the visitors’ nice recent record against Cleveland. Those factors won’t matter so much if Maeda is banged around in a batter’s wind while Civale keeps shining.

Pick: Indians (+102) 

Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers

Gamblers appear to be too clever by-half in speculating on the Milwaukee vs Miami follow-up on Tuesday night. The ballgame’s Las Vegas total has settled low at (7.5) runs while the Marlins stand as an underdog despite whipping the Brew Crew 8-0 in the series opener. Lots of “system” handicaps would point to a Milwaukee rebound at home against an April “rabbit” that’s fading away soon, but the pitchers at hand aren’t overwhelming and the question is whether Miami’s bats can keep up with the expected breakout for the Brewers. By all accounts in the series so far, the Fish can.

Pick: Over 

4/26/21

L.A. Angels at Texas Rangers

At first it could be hard to fathom why the Los Angeles Angels’ (-1.5) Run Line is the less-popular of 2 opposing Major League Baseball bets for Monday night, with the Texas Rangers drawing action at (-120) despite a cellar W/L record. Few of the Lone Stars’ poor batting stats point to a reversion to quality offense in late May, in fact the Rangers are showing too many signs of being a club that might never figure things out from home plate with any consistency. Shohei Ohtani vs Jordan Lyles looks like a pitching mismatch in favor of the visiting team.

But the trends are all wrong for a confident pick on Halos-to-cover. Ohtani wasn’t fantastic in his last outing against Texas, and Lyles’ WHIP number was actually superior when the pair went head to head. Ohtani hasn’t showed stamina in a pair of starts, and the Rangers have been OK as a Run Line underdog. L.A. just snapped a losing streak and isn’t the cockiest ballclub at this juncture. Over (8.5) is a much higher-percentage pick for Tuesday’s opener at Globe Life Park, as the retractable roof will cancel a howling cross-wind and each bullpen could work overtime in the event Lyles is knocked-out while Ohtani gets tired.

Pick: Over 

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros

Monday night’s Astros-Mariners opener comes with yet another tricky Run Line in a spring full of them. Each team’s handicap is a paradox. The Houston Astros (-1.5) (+111) ought not to be a happy team after falling to the L.A. Angels in a disappointing close outcome. But given the proud ballclub’s struggles in April, 3 wins out of 4 in any series is good news. The Seattle Mariners suffered a teeth-gnashing loss of their own in a closer with Boston, but are generating runs and winning games.

Look to the mound and another market emerges as promising. Not only are the aces resting for both clubs, there are extensive injury issues in each bullpen, while the batting lineups appear to be healthier overall for both sides. Last but not least, a solid, steady wind will be blowing directly at the center-right field stands on Monday evening. With an O/U total of just (9) runs even, gamblers can do a lot worse than trusting the high-side, given a pair of lineups which are psychologically well-positioned to have a nice night at the plate against ordinary pitching.

Pick: Over 

4/25/21

Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox

Saturday’s O/U outcome in the Marlins-Giants ballgame illustrates how MLB “under” bets can remain anxious until the final umpire’s signal. Among other “bad beat” motifs, there’s always the threat that 2 tied opponents will “FBS” it up and match each other score for score, adding total runs until midnight Sin City time, and/or a game-winning rally will spark “consolation” runs in retaliation. Retaliation rallies are especially a problem when taking the Run Line against a spirited underdog with confident bats in springtime.

‘Cappers are confident in Boston pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez against Nick Margevicius of the Mariners, and think that the Ms are in for M-barrassment in a Sunday series closer for which the Red Sox are a heavy favorite. But why isn’t the Run Line a more-popular bet on Boston’s side at 1-to-1 odds?

Because the wiser high-rollers know Seattle is playing big-league baseball. Seattle has covered (+1.5) twice in the series so far with a straight W on the ledger, and whipped the Astros and split with the Dodgers before that. Will the hosts probably rally for 5-7 runs and earn the series win? Sure, but the Mariners can keep up, at least for the time being.

Pick: Over (9)

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego’s solid road record and an electric start to a 4-game series with the host L.A. Dodgers has moneylines drawn tight prior to Sunday Night Baseball’s last April installment. Gamblers still trust Pads starter Joe Musgrove after the veteran hurled a no-hitter earlier in spring. eagerly grabbing a U(7.5) wager that’s juiced a little extra at major sportsbooks.

Not to say Musgrove’s aura is a product of hype, but it’s very early in ’21 to be allowing any single MLBer to affect betting lines so profoundly. Musgrove has allowed 3 runs in 11 innings while losing twice in his last 2 starts. Probable Dodger P Dustin May is a quizzical name for speculators, given that May was used and pulled as a surprise Halos-style “opener” despite not giving up an earned run in a playoff game with San Diego in 2020, a move that had baseball’s entire fan base trolling the Bums afterward.

May could (excuse the pun) use the incident for motivation, itching to close the book on a troubling outing. He’s got the talent to smoke the Pads, who aren’t batting all that great at just 12-10. The Dodgers are scoring more runs than the Padres and are leading the AL West for a reason, with or without Cody Bellinger. San Diego’s bullpen is a casualty ward.

Pick: Dodgers (-125)

4/25/21

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians

Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants

4/23/21

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays

National League speculators are frozen as of Thursday night, waiting to see how the New York-at-Chicago series sweep bid pans out for the Cubs. Maybe a humiliation would rouse the Mets’ bats to life and help the club prevail in an important April home-stand. Plus-odds on O(7) is tempting but could change at any time, while we already know a lot about how the die is cast in Tampa, where another O/U line is buried at (7) and (-115) payoff odds on the high side.

The scenarios are similar. Tampa’s bats are a little more live, but New York is playing looser hardball (to a fault) and each team is a threat to score with unlikely rallies or give-up runs in unlucky ways. That’s not a wonderful sign for bets of U(7) at any price on an MLB game. Those hedging low are counting on probable starters Tyler Glasnow of the Rays and Steven Matz of the Blue Jays to keep hitters at bay all night, especially given Toronto’s flat offense.

But maximum pitch counts will be reached, and that will be that for both aces with at least 3-4 innings to play. The pair’s combined starts have led to more over-run total outcomes as the Blue Jays and Rays operate recovery-clinics in the bullpens. Managers know a complete game for a trusted starter is a Pyrrhic victory in ear;y 2021, dampening the chances of an all-night duel and a microscopic run tally in the series opener.

Pick: Over

Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies

A handful of extra gamblers are taking the Under (10.5) in Colorado tonight, hoping that the Rox’ dejected morale and an outfield-to-infield wind will produce a low run total. They should be looking at (-125) of the Rockies instead. Colorado has been decent on the home diamond in Union Station Square, and German Vasquez knows the key to preventing RBIs in wacky Denver air is to keep runners off-base with Ks. Philly has been bad on the road, and the Phillies’ problems should have led to a few more “dimes” floating in the juice on Friday night’s home team.

Pick: Rockies 

4/22/21

New York Mets at Chicago Cubs

You would do well to remember, Mr. Lucchesi, that these Cubs have very different ideas than the last ones. Chicago (+119) is in business at Wrigley Field, beating the New York Mets in 2 straight ballgames, scoring 16 runs on Wednesday night, and setting-up a potential series sweep that could raise the Cubbies out of the 2021 NL Central cellar before the caboose ever gets uncomfortable. So why Chicago standing at plus-odds on Thursday? Bookmakers don’t trust host-starter Trevor Williams to out-pitch Joey Lucchesi of the Mets despite a 2-1 mark in April, and are taking the Cubs’ new institutional focus into account. Superb pitching helped Chicago to the pennant but the stable hasn’t been replenished. The ’21 Cubs need rallies to win and haven’t been getting enough of them.

Reverse psychology is at work, as the media focuses on New York’s defensive issues and pretends as if Javier Báez didn’t define Wednesday’s game with a single blast, or that David Bote didn’t account for another 4 RBIs. Chicago’s lineup is swinging for the fence to get out of a hole, and New York’s “Vatican Henchman” has begun 2021 as shakily as he ended 2020. Sin City is treating the Cubs like fool’s gold…while the Metropolitans eagerly pack for home.

Pick: Cubs

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

Wowee, the L.A. Dodgers aren’t correlated with a (7.5) Vegas run total unless a true ace is on the mound, and it’s Walker Buehler pitching the opening ballgame of a series with the visiting San Diego Padres on Thursday night. He’s been a machine so far in 2021, lasting until the 7th innings of 3 consecutive, well, ace-like starts. Host batters are crushing the Pads on all sides of the stat sheet. Some linemakers have moved the total to (8) runs as speculators rush to take the high-side and count on big Bums bats against a wounded pitching stable. But the real steal on the betting board is L.A. with the juice anywhere under (-175), since visiting starter Ryan Weathers was cautiously pulled in the 4th inning of a San Diego-LA tilt on 4/16, once the Dodgers had already gotten a feel for the called-up youngster.

Pick: Dodgers ((-170) or (-1.5) (+115)) 

4/21/21

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

We whiffed on Milwaukee’s series opener with San Diego on Monday night, but that doesn’t mean Over (7) was the wrong recommendation. At some point in any MLB season, O/U outcomes will begin tipping to the low-side when efficient pitchers are on the mound and quality fielding teams are on the diamond, not when feast-or-famine hurlers are coming off 8 scoreless innings and poised for reversion. Wednesday’s series closer brings the same efficiency-vs-buzz angle into play, but on a Run Line as opposed to the run total.

Gamblers are leaning O(7.5) for Wednesday in America’s Finest City, understandable since the O/U opened at such a low number. But the line-movement doesn’t jive with a handicap of (-190) on the Padres’ moneyline, since host P Dinelson Lamet is an unknown quantity in 2021 and guest Adrian Houser has given up 5 runs in 3 starts. Houser is limited and methodical enough to give up 5 base hits when he ought to have allowed 3, causing the Brew Crew to lose a tight ballgame. It’s less likely that San Diego will win in a blow-out considering the match-up of quiet bats against a team averaging more runs-per-game than the Pads.

Pick: Brewers Run Line (-125)

New York Mets at Chicago Cubs

There’s a pitching mismatch brewing for the Cubs (not the Brewers) and visiting Mets at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, with struggling Zach Davies taking on New York starter David Peterson in the 2nd of a 3-game series. The Metropolitans’ (-135) moneyline is likely to shrink faster once more gamblers figure out the key angle. Yes, Peterson didn’t have an electric start to his season or a stellar spring-training appearance for that matter. But the 25-year old figured things out in his 2nd start against a Philly club that had punished Peterson earlier in April, a sign that the Mets’ up-and-comer could be on his way to another fine season after going a promising 6-2 in 2020. We’re not excited enough about the away team’s pitching to recommend anything but a high-side pick against a (7.5) O/U total however. Cold and potentially damp weather will slow down fastballs in a hitter’s park, negating the effect of slight wind-against and helping the whiff-tastic Cubs score at least a few runs on a Big Apple club with superior plate discipline and a better W/L record.

Picks: Mets and Over 

4/20/21

Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds

As a rule of thumb, rising Over/Under totals are easier lines on which to “fade the public” than dropping totals. Recreational gamblers like to pick the high-side at every opportunity, since cheering for runs, baskets, goals, or touchdowns is more fun than rooting for a pair of clubs to stymie their opponents. There are exceptions, though, such as when “hot” MLB hurlers impress speculators with outstanding performances and cause O/U lines to drop unnaturally. Arizona and host Cincinnati’s run total has fallen to (7.5) at Sin City sportsbooks prior to Tuesday’s ballgame, even though the Reds are scoring 6+ runs per contest and the D-Backs can’t blame problems at the plate for most of Arizona’s 10 losses. Furthermore, we’re not convinced either starting P is a threat to have a banner evening. Luis Castillo of the Reds has given up 12 runs in 3 starts, and visiting Zac Gallen’s form outshined his stamina in a no-decision appearance on 4/13.

Pick: Over 

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox

There are lots of trendy low-side MLB run total picks going around, perhaps leading speculators to concentrate on lines that take the focus away from superior bets. Boston vs Toronto on Tuesday night presents a mirror image of that scenario, as gamblers try to guess who’s going to win the ballgame while passing up what’s potentially a much higher-percentage wager against the O/U (8.5).

Boston is the high-action moneyline for the series opener, having just crowned the talented Chicago White Sox 11-4 behind a big night from DH J.D. Martinez. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are sitting under .500 and couldn’t prevail in a 4-game series with the Kansas City Royals that ended with a 2-0 win for KC. That would seem to entrench Boston as a solid favorite on Tuesday. But we know that day-to-day fortunes remain volatile in hardball, especially in spring. Look to the mound instead, and you’ll find a pair of efficient hurlers who, unlike many of the MLB pitchers getting buzz in the press and play at sportsbooks, aren’t relying on dangerous pitches to get results. Eduardo Rodriguez and visiting Hyun-Jin Ryu have well-earned reputations and stamina to match, and neither man has allowed more than 3 runs in a 2021 start despite not lighting-up the stat sheet with Ks.

Pick: Under 

4/19/21

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies

Hey there, ‘boppers – we’re publishing a little early today so apologies to those still searching for a Sunday Night Baseball prediction. Just scroll down to find WagerBop’s pick on tonight’s Cubs vs Braves contest. Or, if you’re already prepping for Monday night’s MLB action, consider a small-unit bet on the Philadelphia Phillies to win at (-110).

The opening odds might have given Philly the nod in Monday’s series opener with the visiting San Francisco Giants, except that bookmakers had just watched the Phils pitching staff give up 9 runs and 11 hits to the St. Louis Cardinals, a team that has struggled out of the gate in 2021. Sunday’s 2-0 closing victory might make a few gamblers more optimistic about the host club, but the best reason to wager Philadelphia is that P Chase Anderson – who’s had a couple of decent, cautious outings vs the New York Mets – should be able to keep San Fran’s meager bats quiet for 5-6 innings. Gigantes starting hurler Kevin Gausman’s 3.20 ERA appears to be poised for a rise with a larger sample size.

Pick: Phillies

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

The Over/Under total for Monday night’s Padres-Brewers opener has dropped to a subterranean (7) runs, daring gamblers to predict an all-night pitcher’s duel between Joe Musgrove and Brandon Woodruff or wager the high side at odds of anywhere from (-110) to (-120). Both hurlers have certainly had exceptional starts in 2021, allowing less than 10 runs in their previous 5 combined starts. Musgrove pitched the first no-hitter in San Diego Padres history on April 9th. MIlwakuee’s offense belies the club’s 8-7 record with just over a .200 team batting average, and the Pads’ bats aren’t exactly legendary at this point. However, careful April management of pitching stables and a worm-burning O/U line doesn’t mix, and Philly is due for some reversion from the plate. Modern MLB clubs play a style of “advanced moneyball” that encourages hitters to swing for the outfield to prevent double plays and maximize at-bats with runners on base, meaning Musgrove and Woodruff’s confident K hunting will eventually lead to a few extra HRs and doubles. San Diego has been generating rallies throughout a 10-7 opening stretch and each team is scoring 4+ runs per contest.

Pick: Over 

4/18/21

Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers

Despite similar team scoring stats, the Milwaukee Brewers have gotten an early leg up on the Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Central. Milwaukee will trot out a nuclear-hot hurler in Sunday afternoon’s series closer after splitting 2 contests with the Buccos, starting Freddy Peralta against visiting Chad Kuhl. Apparently, the betting public sees Peralta’s start as a sure-thing advantage for the Brew Crew, but only to the extent that Milwaukee is poised for a close win. The hosts’ moneyline has shrunk to 1-to-2 payoff odds while the Run Line remains exactly 1-to-1 on the favorites.

Perhaps batting is the key angle behind a more-adventurous pick. Nearly 10 Milwaukee Brewers have dinged home runs despite a .201 team batting average that’s likely to start moving upward. Pittsburgh’s lineup hasn’t produced nearly as much power despite walking more often, a lifeline that will probably vanish against top-quality pitching.

Pick: Brewers Run Line (+100)

Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs

Speculators waited a long time for sportsbooks to post odds for Sunday Night Baseball, only to find the most basic numbers that are possible in matching (-110) opening moneylines. Kyle Hendricks was always entrenched as the Chicago Cubs’ starter, but the Atlanta Braves took a while to select Bryce Wilson, a promising hurler making his 2021 debut. Cubs’ bats have been quiet to begin the campaign, notwithstanding a 13-run bonanza on Saturday in which 6 host homers and infielder Kris Bryant’s perfect day at the plate helped even the series at 1-1. Atlanta’s injuries in the pitching stable have led the Braves to their own weak start despite better scoring. But the Braves are missing only a single relief pitcher, while the Cubs’ bullpen is full of early-season wounds and COVID-setbacks. That’s an important angle for a contest in which neither starter is likely to see the 7th inning. Hendricks has been ill and was scratched from his last start, while Atlanta’s plan for Wilson is so long-term that coaches are counting his throws to 1st base. Look for the Braves’ stable to close-out a tight ballgame successfully.

Pick: Braves

4/17/21

St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies

At a glance, the St. Louis Cardinals appear to be the most hapless baseball club ever to hold a .500 record in mid-April. St. Louis has lost series to the Reds, Brewers, and Nationals, and has been out-scored 15-2 in its last pair of ballgames. Philadelphia has a (-105) line to win the 2nd of 3 against the visiting Cardinals on Saturday, payoff odds that are shrinking with early action. Philly has been almost as flaky in the early-going however. The Phils were recently swept by the New York Mets in a trio of contests and barely avoided a series sweep from Atlanta before that. The club is suffering from lax plate discipline and averaging well under 4 runs per game. STL is scoring runs in bunches or not at all, which calls an (8.5) O/U line into question. Probable guest pitcher Kwang Hyun Kim was all style and little substance late in 2020, and opposing Matt Moore’s skills have begun to erode since he last faced the Redbirds in 2017. The Cardinals may be poised to knock Moore out of the box or look like trash and lose another blow-out, either case leading to a likely totals-win on the high side.

Pick: Over

Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels

Most pundits agree the Minnesota Twins are talented at the plate and have at least a competitive pitching staff. Is the Twins’ mediocre early record a hint of trouble, or simply a strong club gearing up to take over in June? We’ll potentially know more after the AL Central team’s current 6-game road trip.

Gamblers seem to like Minnesota’s (-110) odds to win the 2nd of 3 games in Los Angeles on Saturday, but bookmakers are clearly shy of probable Twins P Matt Shoemaker, who’s begun 2021 like a golfer who swings well but can’t score under par. Shoemaker fanned 7 visiting Seattle batters on 4/11 but gave up 4 runs in 5 frames as the Mariners won in an upset. But there is no such ambiguity about Jose Quintana’s dreadful start for the Los Angeles Angels. Quintana was punished by Houston and blown off the mound by Toronto 5 days later. Minnesota has the firepower to keep up in a high-scoring game, but if the Angels are losing 5-1 and the Twins can work around Mike Trout and other opposing bats, the visitors’ live odds could shrink 3-fold by the 4th inning.

Pick: Twins

4/16/21

San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins

Every sport has a “loophole” by which an Under outcome can turn into an Over result. In football and basketball it’s overtime, in hockey it’s the empty-net goal. MLB games will always go “Over” if tied at 1/2 of a run below the O/U total, since somebody has to score to finish the ballgame. Baseball’s version of the Over/Under loophole comes into play when handicapping San Francisco’s visit to Miami on Friday evening.

Gigantes are winning while not batting-in more than a few runs per game, thanks to an exceptional pitching staff and fielding form well above the quality expected from clubs in April. Miami is also playing well enough to have won a 4-game series with the Atlanta Braves. Is it time to predict a more exciting ballgame between a pair of hot teams? Maybe sometime soon, but consider that while visiting starter Anthony DeSclafani could be a budding superstar, Marlins probable P Daniel Castano is a wild card headed into Friday. Pitcher’s duels obviously work for U(8.5), but if Castano departs halfway through with the Giants up 4-1, at least a bad beat is less likely.

Pick: Under 

Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics

Over (8.5) is already a popular pick for Friday night’s 2nd of 4 games between the Oakland A’s and visiting Detroit Tigers. As house percentages shrink on the low side and get stiffer for bets on 9+ total runs, is it time to bet with or against the public?

It’s hard to overlook the success Detroit has had on its current road trip, whipping the powerful Houston Astros and threatening to make noise in the AL Central. Despite any perceived disparity in talent, Oakland is in almost the same position, gobbling up wins to compensate for a bad start. But as usual, the pitching mound is a key angle.

Probable starter Jose Urena is off to a miserable start for Motor City, and opposing hurler Frankie Montas isn’t having a shiny spring either. It’s true that large sample sizes are crucial in handicapping MLB performances over the long haul, but don’t confuse the inevitable ebbs and flows with a need to disregard the obvious. It would be hard enough for Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan to tame 18 live bats, let alone a couple of guys who’re giving up RBIs to far-less confident lineups.

Pick: Over 

4/15/21

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays

Making 300+ picks in a season involves a lot of different MLB betting markets. But we hope that Daily Double doesn’t come across like the kid from Summer School who keeps marking “C” on every multiple-choice question. We’re making another “Over” pick – the blog’s third in a row.

Speculators are betting Tampa Bay on a (-175) moneyline for Thursday, hoping that probable Rays pitcher Rich Hill will outplay Jordan Lyles of the Rangers, and allow Tampa Bay to even the 4-game series at 2-2. But it’s unreasonable to expect either man to pitch an exceptional game given that the starting Ps’ runs allowed have belied promising WHIP numbers in early starts. The Rays may prove to be a superior club despite matching 5-7 records after a dozen ballgames, but Hill’s last start resulted in a 10-5 loss and another 15-run contest isn’t out of the question in a closer handicapped at O/U (8.5).

Pick: Over (+100) 

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers

Can MLB gamblers trust the L.A. Dodgers after seeing what happened to the Houston Astros against Detroit? Houston appeared to be keeping pace with the best clubs in both leagues after starting the season with 6 wins in a week’s time. Next thing we knew, the ‘Stros were getting swept by the Tigers in 3 straight games to fall back to .500. Not only is the betting public somewhat shy of L.A.’s (-140) Run Line against Colorado on Thursday night, the ballgame’s Las Vegas total is sitting at a modest (8) runs thanks to the Rockies getting shut-out in the series opener, followed by a slow trickle of small-ball scoring in Wednesday night’s follow-up contest. Colorado might make a fine underdog pick, except probable P Austin Gomber’s sub-3.00 ERA is a mirage after 2 games, since his 2nd start was against a San Francisco team that’s relying on its pitching staff to overcome quiet bats. Gomber only lasted 3 innings in a previous start vs L.A., while opposing starter Julio Urias is coming off 2 Ws by comfortable margins and owned the Rox in the aforementioned ballgame on 4/4.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line 

4/14/21

San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates

“Hey Fowler, don’t you know I hate losin’ to the PIRATES!?” Pop Fischer probably wouldn’t mind managing the New York Knights against the Pittsburgh Pirates this spring, since the Buccos appear no threat to win any series unless the Chicago Cubs are in town. Another opening loss – this time to the San Diego Padres – has San Diego’s ML as thin as (-230) for Wednesday’s ballgame at PNC Park. To be sure, there’s reason to believe another easy win could be in store for a Pittsburgh opponent. The hosts will trot out Tyler Anderson, a hurler who’s off to a dreadful start in 2021, against Joe Musgrove, a veteran righty who’s already got a no-hitter and a separate shut-out win to his credit this season. But the Pirates are hurting more on the mound than at the plate, and Musgrove’s too precious of a commodity as a potential late-blooming ace for the Pads to wear him out. The clubs exploded for 10 runs early in Tuesday’s game and have collectively played in 1 pitcher’s duel in the last 8 contests, calling an (8) run O/U line into doubt.

Pick: Over 

Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox

There are certain MLB ballgames that Las Vegas just doesn’t seem to want to croak out a betting line on, and Chicago vs Cleveland on Wednesday is a prime example. Even though neither team is fiddling with its pitching order, and even though April is not a time when a given outcome necessarily has a huge impact on the game to follow, sportsbooks took until late on Tuesday night to post a (-128) moneyline on the host White Sox for a contest with a low-ball (7.5) O/U run total. Expected starters Carlos Rodon and Zach Plesac have been impressive so far, fanning a combined 15 batters in their previous starts. The fact that 9 total runs have been scored in the maiden half of a 4-game series isn’t helping the Over draw bets. And yet just as in the Wednesday ballgame previewed above, a cold shower might be needed for anyone who thinks a low-scoring outcome is a sure thing based on flaky early-spring scores. There’s usually at least 1 display of fireworks in a 4-game stint. Chicago is averaging nearly 6 runs per game and Cleveland is averaging nearly 5, making (7.5) kind of like a (121.5) O/U line on a pair of basketball teams averaging 70 points per game. At some point, hurlers pitching aggressively for strikeouts are going to make mistakes that result with the ball in the center field stands.

Pick: Over 

4/13/21

Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles

The Daily Double turned into the “Daily Single” despite our best efforts on Monday, as Baltimore’s ballgame against the visiting Seattle Mariners was rained out. As is ideal in such circumstances, the game was rescheduled as part of a doubleheader on Tuesday.

However, plans for starting pitchers have changed, and so have the odds. The O-Birds are now about a (-140) moneyline favorite with John Means on the mound taking on Nick Margevicius of the Mariners. Though Baltimore’s line to win is the trendy pick due to an apparent pitching mismatch, it’s of note that Margevicious’ stats in his brief duty so far this season are pretty damn good apart from a couple of allowed home runs. The Baltimore Orioles are now in the unfamiliar position of getting “juiced” in Las Vegas despite carrying a losing record, and without a lineup of sluggers to take advantage of the odd Margevicious mistake, we’re liking a sober pick on the Under (9) that bookmakers expect to win but can’t juice quite as much.

Pick: Under (-120) 

Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros

It’s common for high-rollers to disregard hot streaks from low-budget clubs in April. But it’s less frequent that a powerful team like the Houston Astros is shunned by gamblers because of a few unlucky losses in the early-going. MLB speculators are shy of Houston’s relatively rare (-180) line to beat the less-talented Detroit Tigers at home on Tuesday night thanks to 3 Astros losses in a row, including Detroit’s 6-2 victory on Monday in the series opener.

Look deeper, though, and the Astros’ bats are not quiet. The club is simply stranding its runners on base. Houston hasn’t posted less than 7 hits in a ballgame since the losing streak began, and even out-hit the Oakland A’s in 1 of the recent losses. Underdog bettors are excited about probable Detroit starter Matthew Boyd, but he’s been clobbered by the Astros in the past and makes $500,000 a year as a 30-year-old hurler for a reason. By contrast, Houston starter Jake Odorizzi has owned the Tigers and wants badly to win his maiden start for the ‘Stros.

Pick: Astros Run Line (+100) 

4/12/21

Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants

WagerBop has discovered the late Monday night line-movement we were looking for, not just on 1 ballgame but on 2. However, only a single pick against-the-public appears to be worth a recommendation in the final analysis. Sharks are convinced that Brady Singer of the Kansas City Royals will out-pitch Alex Cobb of the L.A. Angels, so much so that the Royals have gone from an underdog to about a 1-to-1 wager. Your blogger disagrees, but KC is notorious for having “mirage” success in the early season, making the Halos an iffy pick in any case. Meanwhile, however, the optimism around Cincinnati’s chances in San Francisco is probably misplaced, and we’ll take the reduced juice on Gigantes at (-113).

Pick: Giants 

4/11/21

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis has begun 2021 doing what the Redbirds need to do to keep pace in the NL Central, posting a series-sweep of Miami and splitting 2 ballgames against the visiting Milwaukee Brewers, setting up a rubber match with the Brew Crew on Sunday. Betting lines are stable despite a potential pitching advantage for the hosts, calling the oft-criticized Cardinal offense into question again.

It wasn’t the batting lineup that let St. Louis down in Saturday’s 9-5 Brewers win. Yadier Molina had a huge day at the plate, but relief hurler Tyler Webb was walloped as Milwaukee scored 5 decisive runs in the 7th inning. Milwaukee’s bats have been quiet to begin the campaign, and it’s notable that Sunday’s guest starter Brett Anderson has fared poorly against a host of Cardinal batters (sans Molina) and began the season with a division loss, while St. Louis probable P Daniel Ponce de Leon is pitching well when not looking for the Fountain of Youth in his off-days.

Pick: Cardinals (-117)

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

So much for sentimental (or political) picks on the Phillies to beat the Braves. Betting action for Sunday Night Baseball is almost a mirror image of the gambling trend prior to Atlanta’s 5-4 victory on Saturday, with Atlanta’s moneyline quickly shooting to 1-to-1.7 payoff odds despite what’s been a well-contested series so far. Maybe it’s the probable starter for Philly, hurler Matt Moore, who can accurately be called a journeyman after playing for 6 clubs on 2 continents. Moore was excellent in the Japanese league last season but only lasted into the 4th inning in his 2021 debut against the New York Mets. Philadelphia’s road woes make Atlanta’s ML a reasonable wager, but as the chess champion Emanuel Lasker said, when you see a good move, wait for a better one. Moore’s follow-up appearance (and his shaky stamina after a year facing finesse batters) means that the chances of a 2-1 Atlanta win are lessened while a blow-out becomes more likely. Philly will be the team trying to squeak-out a close win. Atlanta’s sluggers won’t be in the mood to let that occur.

Pick: Braves Run Line (+125)

4/10/21

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

To say that less runs are expected when Colorado plays away from home would be an understatement. Not only is the Colorado at San Francisco O/U total stationary at a meager (8.5) runs, a plurality of high-rollers have wagered the low side since betting markets opened on the Saturday ballgame.

To be sure, neither club’s offense sparkled in the series opener. San Francisco catcher Buster Posey’s big day helped Los Gigantes score a few late runs and prevail 3-1 as Johnny Cueto nearly pitched a complete game. Saturday’s pitching match-up of Logan Webb vs Chi Chi (don’t call me “Rodriguez”) Gonzalez could supply enough skill and experience to keep bats quiet again. But most effective hurlers don’t last 8+ innings, especially early in the season when managers stick stubbornly to the long-term plan. Colorado’s healthy scoring vs Arizona wasn’t all a matter of elevation. After all, the D-Backs only averaged 4.33 runs in the series. San Francisco’s “Under” streak could be ready to snap, and most importantly, a 10-15 MPH wind is expected to blow almost directly at the center-field wall.

Pick: Over 

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

The Philadelphia Phillies are the trendiest MLB ‘dog of Saturday night, drawing more action at (+115) than the L.A. Angels or Baltimore Orioles at similar prices. We can thank the schedule, designed to force familiar pitchers and hitters to face each other again very quickly. Braves and Phillies hurlers Ian “Jethro Tull” Anderson and Zach Elfin respectively whiffed 15 combined batters on April 4th as Philadelphia prevailed 2-1, but a lot of hardball speculators doubt that Atlanta (-135) will be able to follow-up an 8-1 victory in the current series’ opener on Friday, and expect a repeat of 4/4’s W/L outcome, given Philly’s superior start and a smattering of bullpen injuries for the hosts.

Don’t overlook the effect of wishful-thinking in the current political climate. A swath of closet sports gamblers consider Atlanta baseball a “heel” in the ongoing pro-wrestling match on cable news, especially when Braves fans engage in the anti-PC “Tomahawk Chop” at home games. Philadelphia may have started the season 5-2, but the Phillies floundered on the road late in 2020, and didn’t look very good in 2021’s maiden road game. Anderson is a young lion who could be a superstar soon, and Atlanta’s takers may thank Philly’s impulse-buyers for knocking some juice off the moneyline.

Pick: Braves 

4/9/21

Washington Nationals at L.A. Dodgers

Ballclubs like the Los Angeles Dodgers are not supposed to begin the spring at top form. They’re supposed to bide time patiently until taking over the division in June or July. But the Bums have begun 2021 in similar fashion as they ended 2020, slugging extra-base hits and relying on an A+ pitching staff to get through the tight spots. L.A. is a heavy favorite to earn a 6th victory in Friday’s series opener with visiting Washington, and a (-150) Run Line shows that a majority of handicappers don’t expect it to be a tight contest. The Washington Nationals have the batting and pitching to keep up with the defending champs, even though probable starter Joe Ross didn’t fare well in his last game against the Dodgers, and could easily be outlasted by L.A. starter Walker Buehler. It’s the mental state of the Nats that’s concerning, with the team facing its first road trip after a backsliding series loss to the Atlanta Braves and dealing with a laundry list of key players in quarantine.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line 

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians are drawing plenty of bets on a short (-190) moneyline for Friday’s series opener against the visiting Detroit Tigers. It’s an interesting gambling trend that less than 50% of the ballgame’s ML speculators are going with the underdog, despite the lower risk in Detroit’s odds and despite the fact that the Tigers won the maiden series of the season 2-1 over the Wahoos. It’s not as if Detroit is trotting-out a weak starting pitcher. Julio Teheran was solid against Cleveland in the earlier series, allowing only a single earned run and striking-out 5 batters while earning a win. Zach Plesac of the Reds played well in the same ballgame and will start again Friday, causing the O/U market to sit at a conservative (8.5) total runs. Gamblers appear to be too impatient to wager efficiently this early in the MLB campaign, perhaps remembering the full-on sprint of 2020. Managers are treating 2021 a little differently, and there’s no reason to pass up near 1-to-1 underdog Run Line odds for a visiting club that’s had the Indians’ number so far. It might be summer before Cleveland asserts its superiority in the AL Central, if at all.

Pick: Tigers Run Line 

4/8/21

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

MLB “system” gamblers were delighted by the Mariners-White Sox series finale on Wednesday, in which Seattle – surprise, surprise – staved off a series-sweep from a superior ballclub by beating Chicago after taking 2 losses from the visiting ChiSox. That leaves Chicago at a mediocre 3-4 on the season, but it’s way too early to read much into a losing record, and the White Sox will be fine if a home opener against Kansas City goes well. Veteran hurler and probable Chicago starter Lance Lynn was solid against the Angels in his maiden start of the year, while opposing Brad Keller of the Royals was chased by the Texas Rangers after recording 4 outs. Both pitchers will revert to the mean, but early-season starts can be a boon for old workhorses, and Chicago’s moneyline odds to win (-158) don’t feel quite juiced enough given a host ballpark, superior talent, and superior pitching.

Pick: White Sox

L.A. Angels at Toronto Blue Jays

The O/U total for a Toronto vs Los Angeles series opener on Thursday night has ticked up to (10) runs as the Blue Jays’ moneyline proves to be a popular choice at (-120). Is there any chance that a few intoxicated gamblers think Toronto’s “home opener” is anything but a neutral-site contest in Florida? It’s possible, since probable hurlers Ross Stripling and Griffin Canning weren’t exactly dead fish at the end of last season, and the ballclubs have been winning for Under-bets more often than high-side picks over the last handful of games. There’s no denying the Halos have a talented batting order, but each club is dealing with injuries, and TD Ballpark’s dimensions are more-or-less standard at 400 feet to the center field wall. That doesn’t mean U(10) is a fantastic pick for Thursday’s 2nd-to-last ballgame, but the ML could also provide an opportunity to fade the public. Toronto’s been scrapping for runs since Opening Day, with the Blue Jay offense looking particularly ineffective during a series-loss to the Texas Rangers. Mike Trout and the L.A. Angels are coming off a series-win over ChiSox and an impressive 2-game split with Houston that slowed a hot-starting Astros club down just a little bit. The Angels should relish the chance to play a weaker opponent in friendly Florida weather.

Pick: Angels 

4/7/21

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

Lick – touch – sizzle! Daily Double has begun the 2021 season the same way it ended the 2020 season, on a red-hot streak that includes 11 or 12 wins in our first 14 picks of the year, depending on the outcome of a delayed contest in Denver on Tuesday night. Rather than make reckless picks with “house money,” we’ll try to keep money away from the house by making another week’s worth of solid MLB predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies are drawing heavy action to a (-140) moneyline for a Wednesday closer vs New York, and despite the presence of Aaron Nola on the mound for the Phils, the trendy wager does not appear to be based on solid handicapping. The Metropolitans may be faltering less than their schedule has to begin the season, with Jacob deGrom shining on the mound and at the plate in the opener, and the offense producing more runs than total hits while running up a lead on Philly in the 2nd ballgame. Nola gave up a lot of runs to the Mets in 2020 while also striking a lot of batters out, and feast/famine style pitching doesn’t mix well with a (-1.5) Run Line that could allow Pete Alonzo’s club a backdoor cover. Probable New York starter David Peterson isn’t always as spectacular to watch, but was quietly effective near the end of the 2020 campaign.

Pick: Mets Run Line 

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

We’re not laying “2 bucks” on the New York Yankees, a 1-to-2 favorite for Wednesday’s closer against the visiting Baltimore Orioles, who have scored exactly 2 runs in 1 inning (the top of the 9th on Tuesday) in the series so far, losing twice in a row by lopsided scores. That’s drawing more action to New York’s thin line, but the O/U total of (9) runs is more interesting. Baltimore is a new opponent for Yankee starter Jameson Taillon, and it would be anomalous for a club to start 3-0 and then score 2 or 3 runs in the next 3-game series. Projected starter John Means has been called the Orioles’ “ace” but you wouldn’t know it from watching him play the Yankees.

Pick: Over 

4/6/21

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

Line-movement on MLB games has been subtle since the young 2021 season began. But there’s nothing subtle about the rush of wagers on the Atlanta Braves headed into Tuesday’s belated opener in Washington. Atlanta opened as a 1.3-to-1 underdog and quickly became a 1-to-1 risk to reward pick at (+100), even though highly-regarded Max Scherzer is scheduled to pitch for the Nationals. Bettors are clearly hoping that yet another COVID-19 roster scenario will lead to a thin, unorthodox lineup for Washington and that the Braves will benefit from having played prior to the contest while the Nats come in cold. Daily Double is recommending the Atlanta Braves’ run line as an alternative angle, since Atlanta is still technically a (+1.5) underdog and the most-likely winning scenario for the (perhaps?) underestimated Nationals is Scherzer pitching well and helping the hosts eke-out a 1-run victory.

Pick: Braves Run Line 

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

Coors Field is usually reliable to produce a high run total, at least when both ballclubs are motivated to focus and achieve good plate discipline that puts mile-high hurlers behind in the count. Tuesday’s series opener in Denver pits the Rox against the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks, 2 clubs in need of a victory after beginning the season 1-3. The contest’s O/U run total has dipped to (10.5) under strange weather circumstances of which MLB speculators might have an imperfect grasp of the consequences.

Firstly, a strong wind is expected to blow toward the plate, potentially negating the effect of the thin air on long fly balls. The weather forecast is so pronounced – with a 15-mph breeze blowing straight at the batter’s box – that you’d imagine the total would drop further in less time. Rain showers are expected that could help the ball fly over the fence due to the thinness of humid air. Yet the effect of rain or humid air on baseballs is overrated, especially considering that Colorado’s organization treats its baseballs to soak-up water and gain weight more easily than typical hardballs. It is unlikely that a fair drizzle will allow for 3 hours of rainy action on the diamond without a rain delay. Coors Field could become a pitcher’s ballpark for an evening and win for the low-side of another high total.

Pick: Under 

4/5/21

St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins

It wouldn’t feel like a genuine Major League Baseball season without the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds clearing dugouts to intimidate each other, and yet another such dust-up occurred during a debut series between Cincy and STL over the weekend. Not that anyone cared what the final scores were compared to fascination with fisticuffs, but the Redbirds can read respect into a (-110) Las Vegas line for a series opener at Miami on Monday, considering that the Reds won the closer in a blow-out. Daniel Ponce de Leon will take the mound for St. Louis and has a solid chance to out-pitch Miami’s Trevor Rogers, but smart gamblers remain as skeptical of each offense as they are attuned to psychology. If there’s a day in which both batting orders will be subdued, it’s this one, with the Cards recovering emotionally and the Marlins simply flat.

Pick: Under (8.5) 

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels

One day, it looks like Las Vegas is giving Oakland too much respect, and the next, it appears that the Astros’ opening opponent is getting no respect at all. Otherwise, why would the Houston Astros be a (+107) moneyline pick for a series opener against the L.A. Angels, a club that lost batter-pitcher Shohei Ohtani to an injury on Sunday Night Baseball at the tail end of a hard-fought series with the ChiSox? Sure, the A’s looked lousy for 4 straight days to begin the season, but Houston had a lot to do with that, overcoming boos and jeers from a sparse California crowd to score 35 runs in the series. Sharks have their eye on potentially vulnerable guest-hurler Luis Garcia, but the Halos took a while to even announce a start from Jose Quintana, whose ERA was actually inferior to Garcia’s last season. All in all, plus odds on a championship-level club with early-season momentum is rarely a bad wager.

Pick: Astros 

4/4/21

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics

Oakland is drawing bets at a pretty good rate for having been blown off its home diamond in 3 straight games. Following 3/4 of a series full of decisive wins for the visiting Houston Astros, the A’s are catching the eyes of speculators as a “system” pick in the same fashion as the victorious Miami Marlins did on Saturday, a host ballclub suffering from embarrassment that’s sure to play its best 9 innings to try to turn things around and avoid a sweep. However, there are substantial differences between the 2 betting scenarios, and it’s not just that Houston and Oakland play in the American League. Miami showed promise and an ability to hang with Tampa Bay defensively, whereas Oakland has been out-scored 26-7 in the series so far. Boos or no boos, Houston’s bats are hot, and the ‘Stros could cover today’s (8.5) O/U total by themselves. If Oakland helps, even better.

Pick: Astros and/or Over 

Chicago White Sox at L.A. Angels

2021’s maiden installment of Sunday Night Baseball features a ballclub that just about everyone agrees is improving headed into the 2020s – the talented Chicago White Sox. The ChiSox and the host L.A. Angels have waged a hard-fought series with the Halos emerging 4-3 winners on Opening Day and staging a comeback to prevail 5-3 on Saturday, but not without taking a 12-8 pounding from Chicago in Friday’s ballgame.

Bookmakers installed the Angels as a slight (-120) favorite for Sunday’s series closer, but picking a side involves a lot of luck. Probable ChiSox hurler Dylan Cease had a miserable finish to his 2020 campaign, and while Los Angeles starter Shohei Ohtani is a credit to international hardball and among the most-versatile players on any continent, his ongoing injury problems and failed experiments on the mound late last season make the host-hurler a wild card too. Given the number of live bats in the series and the issues with the bottom of each club’s rotation, it doesn’t seem logical that Sunday’s run total is still holding steady at (9) runs even.

Pick: Over 

4/3/21

Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins

While many MLB gamblers reflexively pick a home team to ward-off a sweep in the final game of an unlucky series, a better tactic could be to examine the specific circumstances around an 0-2 series start and determine if the hosts are downtrodden or ready to fight back.

Miami was a popular Friday moneyline pick to defeat Tampa Bay in the 2nd game of a 3-game set at Marlins Park, now known as LoanDepot Park. The Fish totaled 4 runs in the 7th and 8th innings and held a 4-2 lead, but infielder Joey Wendle of the Rays dinged a winning 3-run shot in the 9th frame, handing the Marlins another heartbreaking loss to open the 2021 season. Sin City sharks were correct about Miami’s bats coming alive on Friday, and Tampa Bay is pretty fortunate to be 2-0 in the series. Don Mattingly will babysit his bullpen through late innings to prevent a costly Tampa sweep, and should be steering a well-motivated club on Saturday.

Pick: Marlins (+105)

Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers

Can there be a logical “gold rush” to a betting line in an NL Central division that was as muddy as the Mississippi last year? Only if there’s a mismatch on the pitching mound. Milwaukee is a trending (-130) bet to defeat Minnesota on Saturday following the Brew Crew’s epic comeback win in extra innings. This isn’t the 1950s when the same closers pitched all the time, and the Twins’ bullpen woes from Opening Day might not be a factor on the weekend. But it’s the starting hurlers who could be the key to a successful pick on the ballgame.

Probable Twins starter Jose Berrios pitched well against Milwaukee last summer, but expected Milwaukee P Corbin Burnes is a burgeoning player who improved his ERA 4-fold in 2020 while losing just once in 12 appearances. Burnes has burned batters with an immense strikeout % and fared well enough in recent Cactus League ballgames to begin the year in top form.

Pick: Brewers 

4/2/21

Day 2 Redux: L.A. Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

Some of baseball’s betting line-movement for Friday night makes little sense, such as the rush of Miami moneyline bets following the Marlins’ bad Opening Day at the plate in a 1-0 loss to Tampa. But a “stock” O/U total of (11.5) for Dodgers at Rockies doesn’t appear to be moving fast enough, even though Colorado’s 8-5 debut victory would have beaten the ballgame’s O/U total easily were it not for a bizarre Dodger home run that turned into a single thanks to a baserunning error. Friday’s match-up of Antonio Senzatela vs visiting Trevor Bauer seems solid, but both pitchers were dinged-around by the current opponent last season, and L.A. will be prepared to fight for runs and a decisive win to avoid an embarrassing 0-2 start.

Pick: Over 

San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners

Let’s “spend” some of our stake money earned via a 2-0 Opening Day record and a Run Line win at “plus” odds on the Colorado Rockies. San Francisco’s follow-up (+1.5) Run Line market is carrying a steady payoff number at (-175) while the Giants’ ML mysteriously shifts into underdog territory. Gamblers probably think the Giants will win by a few runs or not at all, while dismissing any prediction of a 1-run SF victory. The angle becomes sharper when the corollary is applied to the host Seattle Mariners, though, who’re putting Yusei Kikuchi on the mound to go against Johnny Cueto on Friday. Kikuchi’s skills and stamina are not special enough to move the needle so much. Cueto has fared well historically against the M’s, and while one can imagine the hosts pulling out a gritty 4-3 win to even the series, the promise of an easy romp is not in the cards for Seattle at this particular time.

Pick: Giants Run Line 

4/1/21

*2021 MLB Season Opening Day*

L.A. Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

Welcome to another season of daily Major League Baseball previews and predictions! ‘Boppers can count on Daily Double for moneyline and run-total picks throughout the 2021 MLB season, but we’re always down to look at a Run Line once in a while, especially when a ML is so high-risk as (-220) on the defending World Series champions for an Opening Day contest in Colorado.

Championship baseball clubs tend to begin the MLB marathon at a leisurely pace, hoping to peak in late summer and win the pennant. 2020’s short season threw a wrinkle in that design, but 2021’s full slate should cause a reversion to the norm when it comes to early-season favorites. Clayton Kershaw is pitching for the Bums, but L.A.’s Run Line is way too juiced on the road at (-142).

Pick: Rockies (+1.5) 

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics

The 2021 season won’t be an immediate return to normalcy in all things baseball, and a lack of packed, vibrant stadiums on Opening Day could lead to a disadvantage for host clubs who would normally enjoy a morale boost from the spring fan support. Nonetheless, the Astros and A’s are at even (-110) odds to win Thursday’s opener in NorCal, given Oakland’s division triumph and the optimism surrounding probable pitcher Chris Bassitt, who takes on aging Zack Greinke of Houston. Greinke will probably exit by the 6th inning to give way to the ‘Stros bullpen, but his age won’t be a factor on Opening Day, and Houston has remained potent on offense even without trash-can-drumming cheat codes.

Pick: Astros

**************************************************************************************

(2020 Season Predictions)

Sunday MLB Closer – Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs

The stage is set for a rubber match between A-grade baseball clubs in Chi-Town. It’s been a long time since we could say that! An ugly hit-batter incident marred the 2nd outing in which the ChiSox claimed a revenge 9-5 victory after getting powdered in the opener. An iffy pitching match-up of Lopez vs Alzolay and loose batters having fun may be angles that appear to make the falling Over (9.5) a worthy wager, but managers will be cautious under the circumstances, allowing partial lineups to go 100% instead of asking every superstar to bat 6 times. As for the pitching staffs, 1 suspended hurler is enough, and they’ll be more careful too. Sleepy is probably the word of the day, until the rivals try to break a 2-2 tie in the late innings. (Yes, there’s a chance this outcome will be 15-13 and put a rotten cherry on top of an otherwise successful season of MLB touting.)

Pick: Under 

Sunday Closer Redux: Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox

No time to waste on a long-winded pick with the campaign ending. Boston has turned the Bos-at-Atl series into a statement of sorts, but the Braves don’t want to advance into the playoffs on a sour note, and will probably play well defensively even if the batting order doesn’t roar at full volume. As for the Red Sox, they’ll miss the elements of shock and surprise after giving the successful 2020 club all kinds of problems for 2 days.

Pick: Braves 

Enjoy the MLB postseason, ‘Boppers, and check WagerBop for recaps and handicapping throughout the 2020 playoffs and World Series.

Red Sox Wrap-Up Bloody Season in Atlanta 

Saturday’s latest eastern battle is its most intriguing in terms of the pitching scenario. Boston’s season was essentially over a long time ago. That’s why you haven’t heard much about the Red Sox from WagerBop lately, because when a talented club sits in the cellar, lines and outcomes are volatile, and a matter of luck and timing. Tanner Houck is a starting pitcher that some  ‘cappers like enough to predict a Boston win (or a least an Under (9.5) result) when the Red Sox play the Braves at Truist Park on Saturday evening. But the Braves may come out slugging behind an enigma of their own in Tucker Davidson. It’s a fun project for a club that’s otherwise bored to try to get a W for an 0-0 hurler.

Pick: Braves

Don’t Overlook the Obvious on Bums-Halos

Everybody likes the Over (9) for a Dodgers-Angels nightcap, since L.A. is likely to whale away on the Halo bullpen now that the American League team is out of the playoff hunt. However, there are all sort of weird macro-factors that could drive the total-outcome up or down. The Angels won’t be sacrificing any veteran bodies and could get worse offensively as the Bums get better, but then the Dodgers aren’t a desperate club themselves at the moment. You can imagine a 3-1 snoozer or a 10-2 Dodger win…the common denominator is the better, more-motivated side winning.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line (-1.5) 

9/26

Ladies and gentlemen, 1 day only…The Daily Triple! 

NY is the Popular Line…and Not Just Because it Pays More

The Metropolitans’ season is on the brink after dropping 2 out of 3 games to the Atlanta Braves (who have clinched an NL East crown) and the Tampa Bay Rays. All there is left to do is try to sweep the Washington Nationals in 4 games and hope vs hope that the standings work out in New York’s favor. Thursday’s 3-2 win looks like a good start on the scoreboard even though the Mets stranded a ton of base-runners. Gamblers love the visitors to win again on Friday anyway, shrinking the Mets’ ML to (+125), but Max Scherzer lurks as the opposing starter on an anxious evening.

Pick: Under (8.5) 

Reds Draw Action vs Twins in Minny

Cincinnati at Minnesota is another ballgame for which the shifting line belies a pitching match-up. Bettors seem to like Cincy (+130) but the Twins will enjoy a start from Jose Berrios and are likely to score enough runs to win at home.

Pick: Twins (-150) 

Handicapping the Oakland A’s Run Line

The Seattle Mariners rebounded from a series loss to San Diego by winning a best-of-3 against the Houston Astros, but it may not do the club a whole lot of good at 6 games below .500. Seattle is also hitting a soft spot in the rotation headed into a series opener in Oakland on Friday night. 2-4 Yusei Kikuchi is probably no match for Chris Bassitt of the A’s, but the best reasons to put your money on Moneyball with a (-105) host Run Line are that the Athletics are 20-8 at home this season, and still have visions of finishing 1st or 2nd overall in the American League.

Pick: Athletics Run Line (-1.5) 

9/25

St. Louis an Underdog vs Own Farm Team…Just Kidding

You could imagine many scenarios in which the Cardinals might lose to the lowly Kansas City Royals on Wednesday night, but it was hard to foresee the Redbirds getting trounced by nearly double-digit runs. KC dinged Carlos Martinez around early and often, posting a surprise series win. Gamblers have responded by moving St. Louis to a (+143) underdog’s line against visiting Milwaukee on Thursday, as the Brewers have more to play for than the Royals probably do right now, and theoretically should be able to leave the Gateway City with playoff hopes alive. Kwang-Hyun Kim faces Corbin Burnes in an expected pitcher’s duel in the opener, though, and STL knows how to play small-ball.

Pick: Cardinals Run Line (+1.5) 

Sorry ‘Boppers, due to a mishap, a scratched prediction for tonight has made it a Daily Single. We’ll follow-up with a “triple” tomorrow 9/25.

9/23

Cards Scrappy, Undervalued vs Cellar Dwellers

Welcome to another special “afternoon edition” of the Daily Double, brought to you by a ‘capper who spent too much time celebrating the Bronx Bombers putting an end to our brief losing streak last night. It’s important to finish the year solidly after building that bankroll with a nuclear-hot summer. I’m touting a pair of late-night ballgames as a courtesy of browsers who need time to find our picks, but even though the Cardinals aren’t as sexy of a Wednesday nightcap-favorite as the L.A. Dodgers, the Redbirds have the fatter odds at (-130) and are the stronger bet to defeat Kansas City. P Carlos Martinez is more of an “opener” for St. Louis at this point, and will be yanked early on the road if there’s trouble. Meanwhile, Danny Duffy may help win for KC Run Line bettors by a run, but that’s the best a cellar club can do after dropping 4 of its last 5.

Pick: Cardinals 

Battle of Untimely Slumpers in San Fran

Because of the gaggle of National League clubs hanging around .500, the San Francisco Giants and – yes – even the Colorado Rockies are in reach of playoff bids. But neither team is playing like it wants to keep going after this weekend. Rox haven’t won a series since the 1st week of September, and the Giants are still wobbling their way out of a sweep rivalry-series loss to San Diego. Logan Webb is a hurler that gamblers entrust to a shrinking (-192) moneyline for the host Gigantes. However, Webb hasn’t been throwing past the 4th or 5th inning very often, making the ballgame a crap-shoot and a better bet on the underdog and the high side of a modest Over/Under line.

Pick: Rockies Run Line (+1.5) and/or Over (9) 

9/22

White Sox a Hot ‘Dog in Cleveland

Is the pennant race really a clue to what’s going to occur on the diamond next, or is our time better spent looking at individual match-ups and subtle angles? Gamblers know that the Chicago White Sox of the AL Central are desperate to keep winning with the Minnesota Twins a wafer’s breadth behind at 1 and 1/2 games. Even though the ChiSox are essentially guaranteed a decent playoff seed at this point, a division title would mean a lot. But we’re thinking handicappers have more than motivation in mind as Chicago’s “sexy” underdog line shrinks to (+155) for Tuesday afternoon’s ballgame at Progressive Field. Cal Quantrill is a talented hurler with whom Cleveland is being very careful from a pitch-count POV, while Reynaldo “Ruy” Lopez of the White Sox will probably last longer. The idea is that Chicago will bat successfully against the Indian bullpen for at least 4 or 5 innings. Not sure if that’s enough to call the guests true favorites, but I’m feeling a run total close to the 11 runs scored in Monday’s opener.

Pick: Over (8) 

Succinct Will Suffice on Blue Jays-Pinstripes

We’ve printed some long-winded handicaps over the last few days – with diminishing success. So here’s a quickie.

The Yankees and Blue Jays – the latter of which have ruined a hot mid-season with poor starting and finishing form – are averaging a combined 10+ runs per game, and the Yanks are poised to knock Tanner Roark of Toronto around for 3-5 innings on Tuesday evening. Given the Blue Jays’ bankrupt fielding effort at times this season, that’s not a good recipe for touting the Under on a sub-10 run O/U line.

Pick: Over (9.5) 

9/21

Phillies May Need 3 or 4 in Washington

For all of Daily Double’s boasting of a mid-season hot streak, your pundit also admits to having made a stupid call on 2020’s last-place MLB clubs. I predicted in June that the shortened season and quick eliminations from the pennant race would turn struggling teams into dead-in-the-water patsies by September. It hasn’t worked out that way. Ballclubs like the Nationals, Red Sox, and Royals are fighting to the finish with lots of strong individual efforts, even though a GM can always excuse a hot batting average or ERA over a small sample-size.

The Philadelphia Phillies are trying to earn a wild card spot in the National League, and appear blessed with a 4-game series in Washington. The Nats, however, just clobbered Miami 15-0 on Sunday. Is the Phillies’ Run Line worth giving (-1.5) runs at (-105) payoff for Monday’s opener against a dangerous cellar team? Yes, but only because 4-0 Zack Wheeler is starting for Philadelphia after getting snake-bitten in a strong outing against the Mets last week.

Pick: Phillies Run Line 

Astros, M’s Wind Up Unlikely Wild Card Hopefuls

I’ve avoided touting batting averages and ERA numbers in 2020 because so many such stat lines can be skewed to insignificance by a short season. But it’s interesting to see that Seattle – lowly Seattle – has a few superior %s in the lineup than Houston after 50+ ballgames. M’s catcher Austin Nola is hitting .308 and slugging an outstanding .531. While the Mariners don’t have the pitching or athleticism to win a pennant, the club is actually still in the race for a Wild Card spot in the postseason. The Astros are too, of course, and just beat the D-Backs in a pair of consecutive 3-2 squeakers to solidify the team’s record at 27-26. A sturdy pitching match-up of Marco Gonzales vs Lance McCullers Jr. has combined with the Astros’ low-scoring wins to shrink an already-cautious O/U to (8) total runs on the Seattle-Houston opener Monday night. I’m not feeling that line-movement given the crucial scenario and last-ditch pinch hitting decisions to be made by teams hungry for a series win.

Pick: Over 

9/20

Braves Battle to Hold Off Unlikely Upstart

What if someone had said 2 months ago (for all I know, someone may have said it) that the fiercest MLB division race of September would come down to Atlanta, Philadelphia…and Miami? Strangely enough, the upstart Marlins might have the hottest momentum of the 3 ballclubs. Miami has won the last 2 contests of a 5-game stint with Washington and will play a doubleheader before meeting the Braves, who are being pushed to accumulate a magic number by next weekend at just (+2.5) games ahead in the NL East. Gamblers seem to like Atlanta (-105) to beat the host New York Mets behind P Kyle Wright on Sunday afternoon, but with Rick Porcello throwing again for the Mets, the (9.5) Over/Under line seems too conservative given 2 pitchers averaging about 5 catch-as-catch-can innings per appearance.

Pick: Over

Cubs Hope to Seal the Deal by Mid-Week

The Chicago Cubs will play a 3-game rivalry series with the ChiSox to cap off the regular season, but it’s looking as though the meeting could be a ceremonial outing for 2 clinched division-winners. It may prove an easier task for the Cubbies, who are nearly 5 games ahead of St. Louis and play the lowly Pirates in the next series, than the White Sox – who have the Minnesota Twins hot on their trail. Minnesota is a (+135) underdog for Sunday Night Baseball against the National League club in Chi-Town, but the paradoxical pairing of Yu Darvish and Jose Berries throwing in the batter’s ballpark of Wrigley Field has bookmakers wary of committing to Over/Under markets. Minnesota’s offense is so feast or famine that I dare not recommend the Twins (+1.5). Over (7.5) or Under (9) are provisional value bets for when lines are available.

Pick: Cubs Run Line (-1.5) 

9/19

When Only 1 Major Market is Moving (At All)

Moneylines are almost completely stationary for Major League Baseball on Saturday. Daily Double isn’t naive enough to think that every high-roller is deferring to bookmaker opinion. More likely, not enough “sexy” predictions are catching-on because of the saturation of weekend sports markets like the Premier League and NFL. Over/Under totals are moving – namely falling slowly – across a few MLB markets. But our only “R-rated” suggestion is that the St. Louis Cardinals’ odds and not the Redbird O/U line should be shrinking. Sin City forecasts (8) total runs and falling for the 4th of 5 ballgames in Pittsburgh. The Pirates beat the Cardinals in a token opener, but St. Louis has controlled the series since then, and if gamblers think a start from visiting P Kwang Hyun Kim is a reason to pick the Under (surely host hurler Mitch Keller isn’t sparking the trend) then why is the favorite’s Run Line still a cool (-110)? St. Louis needs the series desperately – Pittsburgh needs the offseason.

Pick: Cardinals Run Line 

Morton Tries to Salt Away 4th of 5 in Baltimore

Division-leading Tampa Bay has been making a case as the world’s best baseball team with a modest payroll, but the Rays must hold off a pricier New York Yankee lineup that’s making a late charge at the AL East crown. 5 games of a sweep in Baltimore would come in handy for sure, and Tampa has won the first 3 so far with a mix of slugging and error-free fielding in tight ballgames. Just 2 runs were enough to propel the Rays to a win on Friday as P Tyler Glasnow fanned 10 batters while building the lead. Charlie Morton is Saturday’s name-brand visiting starter at Camden Yards, but watch for host hurler Jorge Lopez to match Morton’s early innings and produce a 3rd low-scoring nailbiter in the series.

Pick: Under 

9/18

Royals a Rare In-Vogue Underdog on Friday

There are a bunch of Friday underdog lines that gamblers aren’t especially taking to, but an exception in Milwaukee as the Kansas City Royals are a shrinking (+127) bet to prevail in a series opener vs the Brew Crew. Milwaukee is still technically in the National League playoff chase at 23-26, but Kansas City’s record may be deceiving Las Vegas at 21-29. Last place may be an all-too-familiar spot for the Royals, but KC has won 7 of its last 10, and will pitch 3-3 Danny Duffy against struggling Adrian Houser of the Brewers. Duffy helped blank the Cleveland Indians in his most-recent start on 9/9.

Pick: Royals 

Banner Year in Chi-Town Picks Up Steam

The Chicago Cubs appear to be getting the mojo back. 4 wins in a row have helped to solidify the club’s grip on the NL Central, and 2 of the Cubbies’ 3 starting outfielders are slugging above .500. (LF Kyle Schwarber, slugging only .406, has nevertheless batted 10 home runs in 50 games.) Kyle Hendricks is yet another quality go-to on the mound in Friday night’s opener against the visiting Minnesota Twins. But don’t be quick to jump on the Chi-Town bandwagon at (-135) moneyline odds – the Twins are even more desperate to keep winning and close the gap on the AL Central-leading White Sox. Minny’s bats have quieted down recently, but in a hitter’s park, I’m liking the Over (8.5) for a ballgame that could go into extra innings tied 4-4 and clinch the Over win before a 9th run is scored.

Pick: Over 

9/17

Chase Indeed: Yankees Could Continue to Crush Blue Jay Pitching

What are the Toronto Blue Jays doing better than other Cinderella candidates who’re under .500 in 2020? Lots of good things, maybe, but given recent developments, handicappers may stop answering that question with glowing praise of Toronto batters and pitchers – especially pitchers – and posit that the Canadian club simply played a nice manageable schedule for a month or so. The Blue Jays have collapsed from the mound and on defense against high-priced Big Apple clubs in 3 of the last 5 contests and in the last 2 games consecutively, losing 18-1 to the Mets on Friday and giving up 33 combined runs to the Yankees in 2 outings this week. Gamblers think the Yanks (-230) will chase Chase Anderson off the rubber early in Thursday night’s series closer, but scheduled New York starter Masahiro Tanaka is holding the O/U at (9.5) total runs.

Pick: Yankees Run Line (-1.5) 

Rox Beyond Rescue Headed Into 4 Battles With Bums

Cue corny TV commercial: “Sleepy Major League nightcaps got you snoozing? How about a late-night trip…miles high?” Okay, that’s closer to a stoner-themed Jack In The Box ad. But the point stands – despite the Rockies’ presence in a western state we don’t often get to see night-capping games (or “bailout” ballgames in gambling terms) in such a batter-friendly venue as Coors Field. The Colorado Rockies have pitched well and batted poorly in consecutive series with the Angels and Athletics, and will rely heavily on starting hurlers to put the club on solid footing throughout a 4-game meeting with Cody Bellinger and the L.A. Dodgers. But even if the Rox were to somehow win the series 3-1, they’re not going to make the playoffs, which means skipper Bud Black is ready to roll with untested relief pitchers as soon as soon as starter Kyle Freeland is dismissed by the Bums on Thursday night. L.A. starter Julio Urias is 3-0 on the season and knows how to cut his losses to prevent big rallies…which Dodger bats are likely to produce in thin air.

Pick: Dodgers (-160) 

9/16

Public Buys Low, Sells Short on MLB O/U Totals

Once again, Daily Double has chosen to track AM line-movement on a pair of late-night contests, hoping to pick vs the betting public and snap out of a brief slump that has brought our picks to single-digits above .500 on the season. But when seeking to pick against the public, it’s important to examine why line-movement is taking place, instead of taking for granted that it’s foolhardy. Gamblers have pulled an Over/Under total for the Cubs-Indians return bout on Thursday from (7.5) to (8), but is it because they’ve recognized how fragile and likely to miss some of Las Vegas’ “Under” predictions are this season, or because of irrational belief in batting prowess? WagerBop will side with the former theory this time, because Chicago was able to overcome a massive outing from Cleveland SS Francisco Lindor and 8 combined hits from the Indian outfield in a 6-5 series-opening triumph on Wednesday. Jon Lester is starting for the Cubs, but I don’t see Chicago winning Thursday night’s ballgame 2-1 with each lineup finding ways to score vs quality pitching.

Pick: Cubs (-110) and/or Over (8) 

Giants Too Giant a Favorite in Nightcap ML

The Seattle Mariners have played their way back into the fringes of contention in the American League ranks, though losing to Oakland 9-0 in 7 innings on Wednesday could threaten to bust the M’s momentum. Twas lousy pitching that done it as much as quiet bats – Seattle squeezed 6 very solid innings out of P Marco Gonzales in a 6-5 opening win, but all 3 Mariner hurlers pitched their way into impossible jams in the follow-up. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants deserve better than to be 10 games back in the NL West, but can take heart in the lack of winning records around the league. Both starting pitchers in Thursday’s series-opening Mariners vs Giants nightcap have been yanked early in consecutive starts, meaning bullpens may decide the contest. Does San Fran have an advantage in relief pitching and available pinch-batters? Sure, but not as decisive as gamblers think – gamblers who have shrunk the Giants’ ML close to 1-to-2.

Pick: Mariners (+145) 

9/15

Mets and Under the Popular Lean for Philly Opener

With the visitors’ moneyline for the New York Mets’ opener in Philadelphia on Tuesday shrinking to (-130) and the total falling from (10) to (9.5), it’s clear that wiseguys expect the Mets to win a relevatively low-scoring ballgame. While it’s true that the Metropolitans used-up all their run scoring in game #1 of a sour series with Toronto prior to the meeting, the Phillies are demoralized themselves after dropping all but 1 contest in Miami. Like the ML movement the dropping O/U is correlated with Philadelphia’s lagging bats, but with each club poised to go deep into its bullpen, the former popular bet is the safer pick.

Pick: Mets 

Cubs vs Indians Odds Still Convalescing in AM

We haven’t had much opportunity to check on the Cleveland Indians at Daily Double this season, and must apologize to fans in northeast Ohio for only bringing the team up now. That’s because Cleveland is on a 5-game losing streak, a slump that would be manageable in any other year, but threatens to knock the Indians out of the playoffs in the short season of 2020. Strong starting hurlers highlight Tuesday night’s opener between the Indians and the Chicago Cubs at Progressive Field as Yu Darvish takes on visiting Carlos Carrasco. But even as bookmakers seem shy to put out early Run Lines, an opening-consensus O/U of (8.5) seems a tick too high considering that each pitcher has been consistently standing tall on the mound into late innings.

Pick: Under 

9/14

Gamblers Cease to be Confident in ChiSox

Just as the Pinstripes’ 4-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles helped to shape an AL East division race going forward, the Minnesota Twins visit the Chicago White Sox for a 4-game meeting to determine 2020’s stretch front-runner in the American League Central. Bettors are shy of the ChiSox (+112) with P Dylan Cease scheduled on the mound on Monday, but Cease is 5-3 this season, though up-against a solid hurler in Jose Berrios of the Twins. Minnesota bats have been warming over the past few games, but the White Sox are hot too, and have won 5 more ballgames at Guaranteed Rate Field than the Twins have won in 22 road appearances.

Pick: White Sox and/or Over (9) 

Total Drawn Low for Expected Pitcher’s Duel

San Diego has had a few ballgames go “Under” the Sin City total lately, and not simply because the Padres have played some 7-inning contests. The Pads just held the San Francisco Giants to a grand total of 2 runs in a 3-game sweep over the weekend, starter Mike Clevinger posting a 2-hit complete game and a shut-out in Sunday’s early game. Cody Bellinger and the L.A. Dodgers clearly pose a superior threat from the plate, and I’m counting on L.A.’s livelier at-bats to help blunt the Padres’ fielding prowess in what should be a close Dodger win behind Clayton Kershaw in Monday’s series-opening nightcap at Petco Park. Dinelson Lamet is pitching for the Padres, but he’ll be bound to leave the mound by inning #7. Forget the O/U of (8) – focus on a tight ML.

Pick: Dodgers (-130) 

9/13

Yankee Wins Yank NY Moneyline Short for Closer

The Bronx Bombers are using a 4-game rivalry series as a springboard in the pennant race, clocking the Baltimore Orioles in the opening 3 games despite the O-Birds’ improved form in 2020. Thursday and Friday were dominant wins for the hosts, but on Saturday the Yankees won a pitcher’s duel 2-1 behind 9 Ks from Jordan Montgomery and a quartet of solid bullpen hurlers. Say what you will about the chances of sweeping 4-game series, but Sunday afternoon is likely to end in just that scenario. Baltimore isn’t hosting, and neither club is atop its pitching rota for the closer, so I find it more than reasonable that Las Vegas likes New York (-205), a pricey team trending upward, over the Orioles – a budget team trending downward, thanks to the Yankees.

Pick: Yankees Run Line (-1.5) 

9/12

Top vs Cellar Division Battle Draws Tight Line

What factors would cause Las Vegas and London speculators to draw tight odds on a 1st place team vs a last-place team? For a start, the NL East’s Atlanta at Washington series has produced 2 excellent ballgames so far. The Braves followed an historic 20-run win over Miami with a 7-6 win in the opener, but the Nats fought back with an extra-innings victory on Friday despite Atlanta DH Marcell Ozuna swatting an immense 5 hits in 6 at-bats. Washington is a talented, losing club with a spoiler’s point to prove, and a (-105) bet to win Saturday’s 3rd contest. But it isn’t a rubber match, and although our buddy The Corbin Project is hurling for the Nats, Ian “Jethro Tull” Anderson of the front-running Braves is the better 70s reference (and wager) this time.

Pick: Braves 

Weird Nightcap and Weirder Records

It’s not just an NL Central nightcap on Saturday, it’s a truly strange match-up of a striding club that can take on the division leaders, and a horse-fly that just won’t let go. St. Louis’ “all-average” record of .500 home, away, and overall (in addition to 5-5 in the last 10 games!) belies the Cardinals’ stubborn streak and the fact that the Chicago Cubs aren’t running away from the Redbirds in the race for 1st. But the Reds won a series opener 3-1 at Ballpark Village behind a complete game from P Luis Castillo. Solid pitching and fielding (and a lack of monster bats) has Saturday night’s O/U total sitting at (8.5), but I’m more interested in a fattening (-115) line on the Cardinals, who appear due to dismiss Cincy behind starter Dakota Hudson and set up a series rubber-match.

Pick: Cardinals 

9/11

Our humble regrets on posting today’s picks on a late, lazy California morning (thankfully not an apocalyptic-orange one) but we’ve been tracking some shifting lines on a pair of Friday MLB nightcaps.

(If you’re staying home to watch late-Friday night baseball you’re either a fanatic or a quarantine victim, either of which leaves plenty of time to read picks in the PM.)

Gamblers Don’t Trust Halos to Capitalize in CO

It’s rare to see an O/U total trend downward when batters like Albert Pujols and Mike Trout are visiting Coors Field in the thin mountainous air of Colorado. But gamblers are expecting the Angels to fall back again following a brief decent stretch that still leaves L.A. too far back to catch up in the pennant race, moving the run total to (12) instead of sending it soaring to (13) or (14) for Friday night’s Rox vs Angels opener. Expected visiting starter Griffin Canning has skills to belie an 0-3 record, lending credence to the betting action. But starters aren’t pitching complete games for contenders or pretenders alike, and I’m not liking Colorado starter German Marquez’s chances for an epic outing.

Pick: Over 

Favorite and Underdog MLs Reverse in AZ

There is no denying that the Seattle Mariners are an improved ballclub in 2020, though the team’s poor road record may ensure that it misses the postseason. Bookmakers figured Arizona (formerly (-115) on opening) would handle Seattle in Friday’s nightcap opener at Chase Field, but gamblers have turned the tables with a new line of L.A. (-120). Part is of the reason is doubt that host hurler Caleb Smith will substantially out-play or out-last visiting starter Yusei Kikuchi. But wiseguys also noticed the Ms looking alive on the diamond while the D-Backs ponder golf and 2021.

Pick: Mariners 

9/10

Matching Moneylines in Magic City

How about a “system” pick to try to kick-start another Daily Double winning streak? The realization that most clubs have less than 20 ballgames to go has gamblers looking at the standings, and the Miami Marlins are among the few true underdogs with a chance to make noise in September. Sin City is paying respect to the Fish with matching (-110) moneylines on Philadelphia at Miami on Thursday evening despite the dangerous Phillies standing 21-18 and 2 games back in the NL East. and despite the Marlins giving up a staggering 29 runs to the division-leading Braves in Wednesday’s historic closer. But my focus is on Thursday’s Over (9) payoff of (+100) and our 2020 success in picking mispriced Over bets below (10) and Under bets on double-digit O/U numbers. Each starting pitcher in the Miami-Philly opener (Sandy Alcantera and Jake Arrieta) has had serious early-innings issues in his last 2 outings.

Pick: Over 

Bookmakers Skeptical of Hapless Gigantes Hurler

The Giants and Padres are a pair of upstarts (if not long-shots) who still have a shot at the pennant, and bettors like San Diego to win Thursday’s opener with visiting San Francisco. P Trevor Cahill is the culprit behind a long-shot underdog’s line of (+175) for Gigantes, a player who can’t stay on the mound long enough to help a worthy bullpen play to its potential. We’re all for rating Cahill a steep underdog against the Pads, but San Diego starter Chris Paddock hasn’t pad-locked too many offenses lately. Over and Favorite Win are still correlated most of the time, right? So why is the O/U just (8.5) with batting orders clicking, each team on a hot streak, and just a 9 MPH expected breeze blowing to the corner?

Pick: Over 

9/9

Nostalgic Series Underlines Clubs’ Present Problems

Among the more colorful inter-league series of 2020 is the current 2-game stint between the New York Mets and visiting Baltimore Orioles. But peanuts and Cracker-Jacks won’t erase the present-day dilemmas faced by both historic clubs. Baltimore needs a sweep to keep playoff hopes healthy, and New York has to put a hot streak together in short-order. The Orioles dominated the opener on Tuesday for the guests’ 4th win in as many ballgames, CF Cedric Mullens pacing the O-Birds with 3 hits in an 11-2 romp. Bookmakers like Rick Porcello of the Mets (-152) to out-gun Jorge Lopez and the Orioles on Wednesday, but the counter-intuitive gambling line almost seems to mimic what Las Vegas would do with a division-rivalry series in which the hosts needed to win the final meeting to avoid a sweep. Baltimore’s momentum is a plus, not a minus. The series isn’t Yankees-Red Sox, and the Orioles haven’t been beating the Mets for 3 days.

Pick: Orioles Run Line (+1.5) 

Gamblers Trust Teheran in Texas

Julio Teheran and the L.A. Angels opened as underdogs for Wednesday night’s 2nd of 3 contests with the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. After all, Teheran is leading a club that has played its way out of the pennant race already, and which lost Tuesday’s opener 7-1. Worse, the hurler lost his last outing vs San Diego. But it’s not up for debate that the Rangers are in worse straits than the Halos, who have out-played the cellar ballclub over the last 2 weeks. Opposing starter Kyle Cody pitched all of 3 innings to drop to 0-1 on the season against the Mariners, and WagerBop aligns with the moneyline action that has moved the Angels into a favorite’s market of (-122) as of Wednesday morning.

Pick: Angels 

9/8

Enigma on Mound Leads to Tight Line in STL

The Minnesota Twins would seem to be an obvious pick at (-120) for the 1st of 2 games in St. Louis on Tuesday. Jose Berrios is starting for the Twins following another effective 6-inning day and a win over the White Sox. The Cardinals are pitching Carlos Martinez, a summer COVID-19 case who has labored to regain the form of his mid-20s. But handicappers are convinced Martinez will have a good outing against a high-powered division rival, plunging the O/U to (7). I’m not as swayed by whatever Sin City sees this time.

Pick: Twins and/or Over 

Total Rises for Rox at Pads

The golfer Chi Chi Rodriguez used to put his hat over the hole after making a birdie. Chi Chi Gonzales, the Colorado Rockies’ starter on Tuesday night in San Diego, may be a mad hatter to think he can beat a zoned-in Mike Clevinger and the Padres. Gamblers don’t think so, rating the Pads as a (-240) favorite despite the club opening at a chintzy 1-to-2 price. But the total is also rising despite the fact that Colorado’s batting numbers are always inflated, and San Diego’s identity as a methodical club that will be happy with small rallies after taking an early lead.

Pick: Under 

9/7

Yankees Deal With an Ace in Canada

Believe it or not, Daily Double took a sigh of relief when the Braves vs Nationals game went over the Sin City run total on Sunday. A week of 10-0-0 or 15-0-1 predictions would have to be partially due to good luck, which would be sure to run out and disappoint expectations going forward. It’s sort of the pop-handicapper’s version of a successful gambler not wanting to get thrown-out of the house.

The New York Yankees were once hot enough to get dirty looks from opposing fans if not pit bosses, but a mid-season downturn and a ghastly away-record could prevent the Pinstripes from even reaching the 2020 postseason. The Yanks lost a series to AL-East leader Tampa Bay, allowed 9 runs in a 1-off loss to the rival Mets, then lost a 4-game series with Baltimore while falling to 3rd place behind Toronto. The Blue Jays will pitch ace Hyun-Jin Ryu against Jordan Montgomery in Monday’s series opener with the Yankees, leading to a favorite’s moneyline on the Canadian club. But the underdog hurler has been pretty solid outside of a mishap vs the Rays and should help New York’s batting order keep the score tight in an absolute must-win scenario.

Pick: Yankees Run Line (+1.5)  

‘Stros Underdog Line Marks Turning Point in Houston Odds

Without a handful of doubleheaders scheduled on Labor Day, it’s time to drop the macro-analysis of each depth chart and pitching stable and focus on some individual numbers. Houston’s (+130) moneyline to win the 1st of a 5-game stint with Monday’s host Oakland A’s is far from the sexiest pick on the betting board, but gamblers may be looking at the Athletics’ fine overall W/L record and not the team’s last 10 results, which match Houston’s at 4-6. Injuries have thinned the Space City batting order, but LF Kyle Tucker and DH Michael Brantley are slugging well over .500. Tucker posted 3 hits and 3 more RBIs in a truncated loss to the Halos on Saturday. Gamblers don’t think Frankie Montas vs guest hurler Cristian Javier is a big mismatch despite Javier winning 2x as many times and holding about half the ERA of Montas. But the Oakland heavyweight is getting yanked early in ballgames, meaning that the Astros will have a chance to methodically wear down the A’s bullpen.

The betting public may finally be starting to undervalue Houston after overvaluing a club without its most potent (and illegal) weapon early in summer.

Pick: Astros 

9/6

Braves and Nats Produce Tight Line in Atlanta

Daily Double is nuclear-hot with a 70%+ streak since mid-August and 59% season winners on bets not pushed. While it would probably be wise to look into new markets following a satisfying O/U pick on a 2-0 Saturday, the Over/Under might be a better way to take advantage of the pitching scenario in Atlanta on Sunday than the Washington Nationals’ popular (and shrinking) (+107) moneyline. Patrick “Colossus: The Corbin Project” Corbin will be starting in the closer vs host hurler Josh Tomlin, but although Corbin looks like a classic case of a potential ace holding up the world for a flailing ballclub, and though Tomlin hasn’t been winning baseball games, each has gotten little help from batters. Corbin is likely to out-last Tomlin but I’m not feeling Washington’s lineup against the Braves’ bullpen despite a pair of high-scoring outcomes in the series.

Pick: Under (9.5) 

Bettors Taking Bums at Premium Prices

The consensus Las Vegas and London run total is also O/U (9.5) for the back-end of a Sunday night doubleheader, but the moneyline is as lopsided as you might expect with P Julio Urias leading the L.A. Dodgers against the visiting Colorado Rockies, with the latter club just treading water in the middle of the NL West. Rox batters haven’t been so bad in the heavy air of opposing parks, in fact, the team has a better W/L record on the road, and has split a pair of outings with L.A. prior to Sunday’s rubber match. But the guests are pitching Ryan Castellani, who was blown off the diamond by San Diego and Houston in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Bums stranded 8 runners in Saturday’s loss.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line (-1.5) 

9/5

Handicappers Think Snell’s About to Snare a Marlin

Miami is watching its brave pennant bid go a-glimmer. The Marlins have slipped under the .500 mark, nearly 5 games behind the NL East division-leading Atlanta Braves with just over 50 combined ballgames left to go. Fish fought hard in Friday’s inter-league opener at Tampa Bay, out-playing the AL East leaders with exception of Pablo Lopez giving up a 3-run double to Rays catcher Michael Pérez that made the difference in Tampa’s 6-5 win. Gamblers don’t think Miami (+200) will damage Tampa Bay starter Blake Snell in Saturday’s follow-up yet the O/U is rising from (7) to (7.5). Daily Double’s 2020 SOP aligns perfectly with the public’s opinion.

Pick: Over 

Resurgent M’s Prompt Favorite’s ML on Saturday Night 

Is the 3-game Seattle winning streak a product of improving hardball, or just statistical noise? It’s harder to discount “short” winning or losing streaks in a short season, since teams are bringing A-games every day. Seattle fielders protected 2-1 and 6-3 victories without making an error on Thursday and Friday. Respect for the M’s defense is reflecting in a falling O/U of (8.5) for Saturday night’s follow-up with the Texas Rangers, but bettors don’t feel the same about Seattle’s chances to win 4 in a row, with the Texas moneyline shrinking to (+116). It bears mentioning, though, that betting against a win streak can suffer from a “coin-flip” fallacy – yes, the coin is unlikely to land on heads 10 straight times, but each toss is still 50-50. The Lone Stars are having a poor season and will try a struggling Kyle Gibson on the mound, while Seattle’s Justus Sheffield is coming off a bad outing vs L.A. that looks like an anomaly when compared to his previous starts.

Pick: Mariners 

9/4

It’s All About That Run Total…Low-Side Style

As baseball clubs get into the grueling part of the schedule – what “grueling” there is in a 60-game slate – gamblers seem more and more inclined to pick the low side of the O/U total when pitchers show the slightest promise. All kinds of totals are sinking prior to Friday’s ballgames, and the most-promising of such bets could be the (9.5) total on the New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies. A match-up of starters Jake Arrieta and host Rick Porcello promoted Sin City to open with a double-digit O/U line, but the Phillies have been winning with defense, and the Mets’ hurler hasn’t gotten much help from his batters in 2 of 4 losses.

Pick: Under 

Host Bullpen a Key Angle in Los Angeles

Houston has a popular (-116) moneyline for Friday night’s series opener against the host L.A. Angels. Given that L.A.’s probable pitcher Dylan Bundy possesses twice as handy of an ERA (and then some) as counterpart Lance McCullers Jr., there’s more than the listed hurlers involved in pregame gambling action. Bundy isn’t going to pitch a complete game unless providence smiles on every inning, and wiseguys are correct to think the ‘Stros can do damage against the Angel bullpen. However, there’s also a chance that the Halos will win thanks to superior pitching in the opening 4-5 innings, and if you’re not into 5-innings markets, there’s betting value in an educated guess that L.A. will hang tight and play spoiler against a division rival.

Pick: Angels Run Line (+1.5) 

9/2

What’s Really Holding the Total Down?

Sometimes there are so many factors affecting an MLB run total, it’s hard to say whether the line-movement is caused by 1 or 2 angles or just a combination of everything. Toronto and Miami are at O/U (7.5) runs and falling for Wednesday evening’s closer at Marlins Park with Hyun-jin Ryu and Sixto Sanchez starting for the visiting and host clubs respectively. It’s more than just the impressive hurlers, though – Toronto’s series with Baltimore was low-scoring, Miami’s 1-off with the New York Mets was low-scoring, and Tuesday’s 2-game-series opener included a total of 5 runs. Considering that the Marlins can challenge the Blue Jay bullpen a little more aggressively than the slumping Orioles can, and that a 5-3 outcome wins the Over, I’m betting against the action once again.

Pick: Over 

Gamblers Trust Allard, Rangers as Underdogs in Houston

While the Houston Astros are having a fine season under the circumstances, Space City fans are beginning to worry that the club’s penchant for losing on the road could turn into a lack of nerve at home. The ‘Stros recently blew a chance to sweep the Padres at Minute Maid Park prior to a 3-day string of postponed ballgames, then lost Tuesday’s opener to Texas in extra innings despite a strong outing from Framber Valdez. Gamblers love the Rangers’ underdog line-to-win Wednesday night’s contest, currently (+185) payoff odds and shrinking. Too many things are pointing Houston’s way for Texas to be a value pick, however, including a 3-1 vs 0-3 pitching match-up of Cristian Javier vs visiting Kolby Allard. Tuesday was the Lone Stars’ 4th road win of the year in 15 tries.

Pick: Astros 

Update 9/1: Sorry for taking an extra day or 2 to get back, ‘Boppers, but it was time to wait-out the cancellation bug in earnest. Major League Baseball has successfully held 100% of its scheduled ballgames on 2 of the last 3 days, making Daily Double fairly confident (though with fingers-crossed) that all of our hardball predictions will be supplied with outcomes from Labor Day week onward.

Gamblers’ Confidence in Brew Crew Warranted?

Milwaukee is not having a season to write home about, at least not so far. The Brewers needed a huge day from CF Ben Gamel just to squeak-out a series win over the lowly Pirates on Monday, and the 2-1 advantage doesn’t begin to make up for the club blowing a chance to win a series with Cincinnati and losing 3 straight to Pittsburgh before that. Bettors seem to think that the Brew Crew will benefit from escaping division rivalries, shrinking Milwaukee’s line-to-win to (-180) in a series opener vs visiting Detroit on Tuesday. But the Tigers have won 5 ballgames in a row including a sweep of the Minnesota Twins. Without an obvious mismatch in the pitching mound to speak of, it’s hard to see Motor City laying down given the team’s 1st chance to make noise in quite a while.

Pick: Detroit Run Line (+1.5) 

Correlation Consternation in Bums vs Snakes Betting

Under outcomes and underdog wins are correlated often in sports gambling, for instance in FBS football, or the English FA Cup. In the world of baseball, however, it seems that perceived correlation depends on circumstances. The L.A. Dodgers are massive (-260) favorites over the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks in Tuesday’s nightcap, but is Las Vegas skeptical of a blow-out Dodger win, given that the O/U total has shrunk from around 10 runs to an even (9)? It may simply be that Arizona’s offense was putrid over the weekend against San Francisco, and Julio Urias and the Bums are expected to close-out Arizona defensively without needing gratuitous at-bats for the stars in the host batting order.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line (-1.5) 

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8/27

Now That’s a Low Run Total

Bookmakers and gamblers alike have appeared tentative throughout the 1st half of a shortened MLB season, uncertain how various changes, postponements, and roster moves will affect outcomes. O/U lines have hovered between 8 and 10 runs religiously, at least without thin Rocky Mountain air as a factor. But that trend could be going bye-bye if Sin City’s Over/Under run total on St. Louis vs Pittsburgh this Thursday is any indication. Las Vegas is so impressed by new Cardinals hurler Kwang Hyun Kim that the total has opened at (7) runs and stayed there, even following Tyler O’ Neill and the Redbirds’ lively bats at the end of Wednesday’s win over Kansas City. I’m not fond of predicting 2-1 games between such disparate clubs, however. Pittsburgh is taking a nosedive and could easily lose by a whopping score.

Pick: Over 

Motown Boys a Popular Underdog vs Visiting Twins

Early action closed the gap on a substantial favorite vs underdog line in Detroit, as the Tigers are now just a (+142) wager to beat the Minnesota Twins. Detroit has posted perfectly nice wins at Comerica Park this season, including last night’s surprise rubber-match victory over the Chicago Cubs. But it’s hard to fathom why bettors are taking a chance on Tiger starter Matthew Boyd, who hasn’t sniffed a victory in an 0-4 start, against the solid Randy Dobnak. Cleveland was able to keep Minnesota bats quiet for 3 games this week, but Detroit used a veritable stable of no-names to out-last the Cubs, and could finally run out of pitching ideas vs a crew of sluggers.

Pick: Twins 

8/26

Let’s Put the Odds in a 5-Market Rotation

Daily Double is running about .800 in mid-August, improving a dismal opening record to 30-26-5 with a handful of 2-to-1 underdog bets. Hold the other shoe, and don’t let it drop! Like a good hardball manager, our predictions must now guard against pitfalls and losses of momentum while staying aggressive enough to maintain the groove.

It’s never easy to keep that balance, especially in 2020’s landscape. The New York Mets are getting a rare nod from gamblers after a lackluster 1st half, a 1-to-2 (-200) moneyline favorite to beat an upstart club with a yawn. Yet the Mets are 12-15 and in midst of 1 of the least-predictable “series” ever recorded. New York began playing ball with the Miami Marlins a week-ago Monday, postponed a follow-up meeting with the rival Yankees, then resumed to play even more ballgames against the Fish. The Mets are leading the accidental “7-game series” 3-2, though win or lose Wednesday, here’s a hunch that “Game 7” will be necessary. ‘Cappers have overlooked that the Over/Under total (7.5) for a 6th-consecutive meeting belies the recent stat lines of the starting hurlers. Rick Porcello and visiting Dan Castano are 1-5 in 6 combined starts. MLB bullpens appear as busy as ever despite less risk of fatigue among aces, and so it’s rarely a bad idea to take the high or low side when a total shrinks to 7 or shoots to 11+ respectively.

Pick: Over 

Dodgers Expected to Prevail in Marquee Mound Match-Up

The total is O/U (9) for a name-brand pitching contest in San Francisco, so maybe hurlers aren’t getting as overrated as all that. The Dodgers and host Giants are collectively averaging 5+ runs per game but bookmakers know better than to let the number climb higher with Johnny Cueto and Julio Urias standing at a combined 4-0 this season. The close, anxious ballgame played in Tuesday night’s series opener is nearly anomalous because the Dodgers (-220) are 22-8 and playing well enough to blow many teams out. Still, skipper Dave Roberts has shown that he doesn’t mind solid 1 and 2-run wins as opposed to fireworks at the end of ballgames, making the Bums’ Run Line (-1.5) as taboo as the favorite’s Wednesday night ML is chintzy.

Pick: Under 

8/25

Total Plummets for Angels at Astros

Houston just snapped a 3-game skid by beating the L.A. Angels 11-4 at home. The run total opened at a reasonable Over/Under (10) as the Astros shuffled their pitching order and the Halos plan to start a struggling Julio Teheran. But thanks to belief in Houston’s pitching staff as a whole and the belief that Teheran is about to snap out of it, bettors have been veritably “panic buying” on the Under, driving the total down to (8) runs at some sportsbooks. Hell, maybe the series follow-up on Tuesday will feature 6 runs. Or 4 runs. Or 1 run. But the crazy betting action makes the % pick obvious for 2 slugging teams that aren’t really trying to win 1-0.

Pick: Over 

ChiSox Popular Minus-ML Pick vs Sinking Pirates

Pop Fischer from The Natural may hate losing to the Pittsburgh Pirates, but the Chicago White Sox are happy to be meeting the NL Central’s caboose for a pair of games in the Windy City. The ChiSox almost swept a rivalry series with the Chicago Cubs and have become 1 of the most popular bets on Tuesday night’s MLB betting board at (-240). Is the Chicago Run Line worth it at (-120)? White Sox starter Lucas Giolito shut out the Detroit Tigers for 7 innings last time he was on the mound, but the best reason to predict a substantial Pittsburgh loss is that the Steel City club just isn’t feeling it this year, and has essentially already played its way out of the pennant race.

Pick: White Sox Run Line (-1.5) 

8/24

Why are the Fish a Popular Catch?

The Miami Marlins have fit the prototype of what we thought a successful underdog team might look like in 2020, making up for a dicey pitching staff with timely batting and solid fielding, and building a 20-game record from which a 40-game sprint to a playoff berth is not out of the question. Late August has proven more challenging, though, and the Marlins missed out on an opportunity to go ahead 3-1 in a 5-game stint at Nationals Park. Monday’s visiting starter Pablo Lopez has hurled so well for Miami that gamblers have driven a near-1.5-to-1 line to just (+107) on the underdogs (and perhaps soon-to-be favorites). The Under (9.5) is probably a better wager considering that only 1 game out of the 4 in the series so far has gone over the current run total.

Pick: Under 

D-Backs Look to Snap Out of Slump in AZ

Perhaps no batting lineup in baseball will be as maligned as Arizona’s, at least if the trend of the past few days continues for very long. The Snakes scored 10 runs in a blow-out win over Oakland about a week ago – since then Arizona has scored a grand total of 6 runs in 5 straight losses. Speculators expect that the Diamondbacks will snap out of it this Monday night against visiting Colorado (+141) but the Rockies’ Run Line is tempting at (-135) payoff odds.  Ryan Castellani’s chances of out-pitching and out-lasting host hurler Merrill Kelly are not so slim as to prompt substantial underdog odds in a contest between 2 losing teams. Yes, Colorado is working on a losing streak longer than Arizona’s, but the Rox were swept by the Astros and Dodgers, not exactly the weak sisters of MLB.

Pick: Rockies Run Line (+1.5) 

8/23

ChiSox Can Usher New Era in Windy City Rivalry

Rivalry games are always important, but until recently, a hometown rivalry might have been the best – and only – reason to tout the Chicago White Sox over the Chicago Cubs. Welcome to 2020, and a White Sox team that’s not only threatening for the AL Central lead, but is potentially about to vanquish the Cubbies at Wrigley Field in 3 straight ballgames. ChiSox 1B José Abreu is having 1 of the best MLB series-performances in recent memory with 7 hits and a staggering 5 home runs in just 9 at-bats. Sin City seems to think starter Yu Darvish and an angry National League club will dismiss the White Sox (+155) sweep attempt on Sunday. Don’t be so sure.

Pick: White Sox Run Line (+1.5) 

Phils Considered Solid Underdog Despite Losing Streak

What began as a brief setback is getting to be a crisis for the Philadelphia Phillies. 5 losses in a row in 2020 is worse than a 12-game losing streak in a normal MLB season, and the fact that 3 of the losses came by 1 run is no salve for the wound. Philly led 4-0 as of the 7th-inning stretch at Truist Park on Saturday night but lost 6-5 to an Atlanta comeback. The underdog line on the Phillies is stable at (+107) and maybe even shrinking toward minus-odds range as bettors debate whether host P Josh Tomlin or visiting Zach Eflin will have the superior outing, but neither man is a stamina phenom, meaning that plate discipline and bullpen performance could become the biggest factors in Sunday night’s closer.

Pick: Braves 

8/22

Minnesota Bats Prompt Rising O/U in AL Central

Outside of Atlanta and Philadelphia swapping slight-favorite/slight-underdog odds for the 2nd straight day, there hasn’t been a lot of noteworthy moneyline movement for Saturday’s ballgames. There are a handful of moving O/U lines, though, including a rising (9.5) total for the 2nd of 3 Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins games in the Show-Me State. Marquee names like Nelson Cruz produced hits for the Twins in the opener, but KC’s rank-and-file managed to out-play the division leaders in a 7-2 triumph. Gamblers don’t think Kansas City starter Brady Singer will stand up to the Twins’ bats, but Singer has been on-pitch vs Minnesota, and the 2 teams have already played 6 low-scoring defensive battles on the season.

Pick: Under 

Bookies, Gamblers Weigh Home Field Heavily in San Diego

For some reason, the San Diego Padres are a (-106) wager to beat the visiting Houston Astros on Friday night, even though the ‘Stros nearly came back to win a 1-run opener in which Manny Machado’s pair of RBI singles made the difference for the Pads. Space City’s Brandon Bielak has a good shot to out-pitch San Diego starter Zach Davies, and the Astros have been the superior club over the past 1-2 weeks. Davies hasn’t shown handicappers a whole lot of consistency so far this season, as evidenced by a rising (9) run Over/Under total.

Pick: Astros 

8/21

Philly, Atlanta Swap Places on MLB Betting Board

Gamblers are convinced that Atlanta’s Max Fried and Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola will keep opposing bats quiet on Friday night, so much so that action on the Under has driven the O/U total down to just (8) runs. Speculators are just as convinced that Philadelphia will win the 1st of 3 ballgames at Truist Park, moving a substantial underdog’s line to (-112) on the visitors in a half-day’s time. Philly’s batters vs Atlanta’s bullpen could give the Phils a victory in the late-going, but Fried has been pitching too well to bet against right now.

Pick: Braves 5-innings bet 

Halos Garner Moneyline Rush for Oakland Meeting

Handicappers (if not bookmakers) are also less frightened of Mike Fiers these days, as a planned start from the Oakland A’s hurler has not stopped the visiting L.A. Angels’ line from shrinking to (-120) after opening in plus-range. One supposes there is an argument that L.A. simply needs this ballgame far worse than Oakland does, since at 8-18 the last-place Halos are on the precipice of a throw-away season. But the hosts are 11-3 at home and an extremely-solid Run Line bet for Friday night at (-155) payoff.

Pick: Athletics Run Line (+1.5) 

8/20

Red Sox Racking Up Bets for Baltimore

The Boston Red Sox won a ballgame yesterday as 3B Rafael Devers led a comeback effort over Philadelphia. Wednesday’s band-aid of a win allows us to assess the horrible month Boston has had, and the club’s slim hopes to contend after winning 7 of 25 outings. Gamblers are flocking to a (-146) Red Sox moneyline prior to Thursday’s series opener in Baltimore, almost trying to will the team to series wins over familiar opponents in the Orioles and Blue Jays. Only problem? The chances of that are slimmer than those of any of a dozen other MLB clubs putting together a hot streak, and Baltimore’s morale is superior to Toronto’s right now despite similar W/L records. To say that the Orioles enjoy superior morale to the Red Sox as of 8/20 would be an understatement.

Pick: Orioles Run Line (+1.5) 

New Law: No Bets on the Cards and Wainwright

The drastic line-movement toward Cincinnati (-147) and away from St. Louis (+127) for Thursday night’s NL Central series opener (opening moneylines matched at (-110)) may turn out to be 1 of the biggest collective gambling errors of the season. Yes, the Cardinals have had to deal with COVID-19 complications up to the beak, but the club just went 4-4 in closely-contested ballgames against talented Chicago teams. Catcher Yadi Molina is returning to give the Redbirds a batting boost, but St. Louis already makes up for a lack of elite power and gap-hitting with solid defense and plate  discipline, and is blessed by another start by Adam Wainwright…who’s been underrated by Sin City already this year. The Reds have dealt with recent postponements themselves and appear to be nothing special at 10-12. Cincy starter Sonny Gray has been up and down.

Pick: Cardinals 

8/19

Oh, Dolly I’m Hot Today…But July Was a Peach, Hun

Hurrah! Daily Double is not only perking above 52% on the fresh season, but shot firmly into the black on a Monday and Tuesday filled with accurate against-the-grain picks, including a neato (+225) 5-innings bet on Seattle. But as Hunter S. Thompson once counseled, there is no fool like one who takes winning for granted. Caution and cold showers must win the moment. July was filled with unpopular picks that didn’t work.

Much of July and August didn’t work for the Washington Nationals, who have spent the last 2 weeks settling back into every-day baseball, and who appear to finally be warming to the challenge. D.C. clipped the upstart Baltimore Orioles 2 games to 1 in a previous series and faces a crucial rubber match against the hosting Atlanta Braves on Wednesday evening. Is it time for another against-the-flow prediction, with Atlanta’s ML having fattened to (-126) as gamblers pick the underdog Nats? Atlanta’s fielders did not have a good outing on Tuesday and the club stranded 11 runners in an 8-5 loss, leading Sin City ‘cappers to conclude that the Braves are still the more-talented team. But the scheduled host hurler on Wednesday is 0-3 Kyle Wright, who was punished by the Miami Marlins just 5 days ago.

Pick: Nationals (+106) 

Mile High Meeting Bends Brains of O/U Bettors

With recent history as a betting angle, there would be every reason to pick the Over (12.5) in Wednesday’s ballgame between the Colorado Rockies and the visiting Houston Astros. Each club’s batters appear due after combining for 6 runs in 20 frames. Space City bats are still alive despite the lack of video-surveillance in 2020, and if anything, the Astros simply cannot control where the ball flies off the bat as well this season, not a big deal in Denver where the thin air does wonders for hard-hit baseballs. Colorado’s scheduled starter Ryan Castellani doesn’t have the best contact % for an otherwise solid rookie. However, visiting starter Framber Valdez has been terrific despite a 1-2 record, and Houston’s defense is obviously helping to hold the Astros in contention despite a disappointing team batting average.

Pick: Under 

8/18

Early Line Shift Reshapes Big Apple Narrative

The New York Yankees appeared to be in position to play well in a series with visiting division rival Tampa Bay. Or at least bookmakers thought so, anyway. The hosts have won 6 ballgames in a row, completing a 4-game sweep of hated Boston with a 6-3 Sunday win that featured 7 hits and 6 RBIs from the Pinstripe infield. Meanwhile, the Rays needed poor opposition fielding just to escape with a series win vs Toronto. Yet heavy gambling action on a former 1.3-to-1 underdog has re-cast P Blake Snell and the Rays as (-113) favorites for the opener at New York on Tuesday, with the Yankees a slight underdog at (-107) despite a start from hurler Masahiro Tanaka. The O/U line has shrunk to (8), giving wiseguys a convenient against-the-public wager in a year surprisingly full of quick pitching changes.

Pick: Over 

MLB Pitching Debut Marks ChiSox vs Tigers Follow-Up

There are essentially 4 nightcaps on the MLB slate this Tuesday – 2 meetings of contenders and 2 ballgames between flagging underdog team. You can’t predict that the Cinderella candidates in Kansas City will have a barn burner, as the Reds and the Royals appear to be headed for also-ran status in 2020. But the Chicago White Sox have shown promise, leading to a weird scenario in which the underdog Detroit Tigers have a more popular moneyline (+150) than Run Line (+1.5) (-130) for the 2nd of 4 games in Chi-Town. Detroit will be debuting new Major League starter Tarik Skubal, an exciting fastball specialist. But Chicago starter Dylan Cease has been excellent vs the Tigers and could pitch as many as 6-8 innings, meaning that the ballgame will probably be 1 of those outings in which a raw prospect looks outstanding on the mound, but his club loses anyway.

Pick: White Sox 

8/17

Gamblers Love Mets in Magic City

The Miami Marlins are in danger of slowing down. While a 9-6 opening record might get a ballclub more say in the 2020 pennant race than in any other season, the Fish have dropped consecutive series and badly need a victory in Monday’s opener with the visiting Mets. It’s getting to a point where handicappers will expect Miami to either win a 3-game or 4-game meeting and get things right again, or be swept by a more-powerful National League opponent and dismissed from the division lead. The gambling action for Monday makes it look like gamblers think New York is the team to lay on a beat-down, with the moneyline shrinking to (-145) on the favored Mets as the Marlins reshuffle a streaky stable  of hurlers. But scheduled New York starter Robert Gsellman was yanked 6 outs into his previous start against Washington. The O/U line of (9) seems a half-run low for a volatile outcome.

Pick: Marlins Run Line (+1.5) and/or Over 

Seattle Provides Rare ML Among Season’s Early Whoppers

This handicapper’s guess would’ve been that underdog MLB moneylines would get fat quickly in August and September. After all, a 60-game season means every outing is magnified, and skippers must feel compelled to play as many strong lineups as they can without regard for fatigue. But the former hasn’t happened so far. Most underdogs have enjoyed at least 1.75-to-1 odds to win their ballgames. The trend could be shifting now that ‘cappers finally have decent sample-sizes of 2020 games to work with, and Seattle’s nearly 2.5-to-1 odds to win Monday night’s battle at Dodger Stadium illustrates a betting public assured of the Bums’ dominance over meek rivals. The Seattle Mariners are 6-17 and unlikely to win a 4-game series with the L.A. Dodgers, but Monday’s probable pitching match-up of Ross Stripling vs Justin Dunn actually looks favorable to the guests.

Pick: Mariners 5-innings bet (+225) 

8/16

MLB Speculators Don’t Learn From Saturday Debacle

It’s more than reasonable for Las Vegas to set an underdog’s moneyline on the St. Louis Cardinals in Sunday’s afternoon ballgame at Guaranteed Rate Field, even though the Redbirds surprised pundits by winning both games of Saturday’s doubleheader by wide margins. The pitching match-up is favorable to the Chicago White Sox. Probable host hurler Dallas Keuchel is due to get some help from ChiSox bats, and visiting starter Dakota Hudson hasn’t had it together before or after the COVID-19 break. However, gamblers driving the Cardinals ML to (+140) and preventing the O/U from rising above (9) total runs appear to be underestimating STL batters yet again. OFs Dexter Fowler and Tyler O’ Neill had excellent Saturdays at the plate, and we already know the club’s infielders are savvy and dangerous with runners on-base.

Pick: Cardinals and/or Over (9) 

Potential Sweep on the Line in Colorado Closer

Betting odds are late to arrive for Sunday Night Baseball between the Yankees and Red Sox (imagine that) so we’ll turn attention back to the Texas Rangers at Colorado Rockies series. Texas clamped down on Colorado batters for 5 consecutive frames on Saturday, giving the offense time to produce a 6-4 win behind Choo Shin-soo’s terrific outing. That leaves the Rox without a victory in the series so far, and gives handicappers another chance to test the old “home team stops sweep to ward-off embarrassment” prediction tactic. Except timing doesn’t fit the storyline – Jon Gray starts for the hosts on Sunday afternoon after getting blasted by Arizona in his previous start.

Pick: Rangers 

8/15

Welcome Back. Redbirds…From All Except 2 Cities

The St. Louis Cardinals will finally play a ballgame – 2 of them in fact – if all goes well at “Not Exactly” Guaranteed Rate Field this afternoon. Sin City has not given the Redbirds any kinder of a welcome than the White Sox hope to in Chi-Town. Betting action on the hosts has driven an already-skeptical moneyline to (+158) on the Cards, with the prevailing sentiment that St. Louis probable pitcher Adam Wainwright won’t be used for more than 5 or 6 innings. But Wainwright has sparked STL action to plenty of minus moneylines by making an appearance on the mound, and the popular prediction overlooks that no ballgame will be considered just a “warmup” in 2020. Managers can’t afford that, especially with the 2nd half of a key doubleheader to gin-up momentum for. There’s no Run Line available at Bovada Sportsbook until morning, maybe because bookmakers think the Cardinals will make the opener interesting, and plan to have incongruous payoff odds to offer on the visitors (+1.5).

Pick: Cardinals or Cardinals Run Line if Longer Than (-130) on Opening 

Dodgers Look to Assert Dominance in SoCal

WagerBop’s theory that the Dodgers and Yankees are better gambles than the Astros in 2020 is working out so far, as Houston learns how to win without video-surveillance while those experienced in fair play hold an inside lane. Los Angeles is leading the NL West, working on a 3-game winning streak, and happy to be visiting the cross-town rival Angels at a crisis point in the 7-13 Halos’ slump. Game 1 of a 3-game stint went about as expected. Cody Bellinger of the Bums knocked it all over the park in a 7-4 guest victory. A probable start from Walker Buehler has the Dodgers’ moneyline swirling around (-160) and the O/U steady at (9) runs for Saturday night’s follow-up. Actually, the changing payoff odds tell us that gamblers are taking the Over often, but bookies are choosing to sit pat on the number with sturdy Andrew Heaney starting for the American League club. The hosts’ Run Line feels like a sucker’s market at (-115), but conversely the Dodgers (-1.5) is at 1-to-1 odds when it ought not to be. Heaney should be improved from a previous dismal outing but the bullpen might not contain Bellinger and associates.

Pick: Dodgers Run Line 

8/14

Rangers Aim to K-O Rockies in Denver

Daily Double is working on a hot streak, finally sniffing .500 on the season despite taking chances on a handful of 2-to-1 moneylines. In a similar fashion, the Texas Rangers are enjoying a rebound after a lousy audition, winning every game of consecutive 3-game series save for an upset loss to Seattle on Monday. OF Willie Calhoun’s late heroics gave Texas a rubber-match win over the Mariners last night, but gamblers expect volatility in the 1st outcome of a Rockies-Rangers meeting beginning on Friday night with a (-120) Rangers moneyline and a (12) run O/U. The trick to preventing extra-base hits from the Rockies at Coors Field is to not allow hits in general, and expected starter Lance Lynn fits that game plan for Texas, while Colorado’s starter Ryan Castellani has been handled with kid gloves (excuse the pun) and may not throw as many pitches or generate as many put-outs and Ks as the veteran despite a comparable skill level.

Pick: Rangers 

Athletics Inspire ‘Capper Confidence vs Gagging Giants

The Oakland As appear poised and confident despite losing a 3-game series to the Los Angeles Angels, standing tall at 13-6 and leading the AL West division. It couldn’t be a more different story for the San Francisco Giants, sagging at 8-12 and last place in the National League’s west coast grouping. A thread of WagerBop’s recent success has been picking “Over” on ballgames in which talented clubs are facing desperate underdogs, and a dropping Sin City total of (8) runs makes the Over seem promising for Friday night’s series opener between Oakland and San Fran despite Johnny Cueto meeting Frankie Montas on the mound. However, line movement as given the visitors an almost 1-to-2 favorite’s ML while blowing San Francisco’s line up to (+170). Considering that the Giants have endured a hellacious schedule without getting blown-out once since July, 1.7-to-1 is a little too fat for a cross-town rivalry opponent playing at home.

Pick: Under (8) and/or Giants Run Line (+1.5) (-105) 

8/13

Condition Red at Fenway Park

It’s high time to check in on the Boston Red Sox, who are in danger of disappointing a rabid fan base for yet another season. We’ve noticed that teams playing ballgames every day aren’t necessarily losing to clubs with loads of extra rest, meaning that Boston’s 18 appearances are absolutely no excuse for a ghastly 6-12 record. As we’ve been over at Daily Double already, that’s like beginning with a 17-34 mark in a normal pennant race. It’s not getting any better against visiting Tampa Bay, which has out-scored the Fenway Park hosts 17-7 in 2 games and could be threatening a statement-sweep in a 4-game series. The Rays have been priced unattractively at (-157) for Thursday’s meeting and aren’t holding up their end of the betting handle, mostly because expected starter Tyler Glasnow isn’t setting the mound on fire. But the Red Sox are asking P Kyle Hart to snap the team out of a slump in a move that may be labeled an experiment. Over (9.5) is a (+100) payoff at Bovada Sportsbook, a superior pick given a weird spot in the rotations and a desperate Boston lineup.

Pick: Over 

Pads Try To Notch Series Win in L.A.

The San Diego Padres are getting decent action as a (+122) moneyline underdog at Dodger Stadium on Thursday. Sturdy P Chris Paddack will start the ballgame for the Pads, but it will be interesting to see if the latest final score impacts Las Vegas action on tonight’s closer. San Diego won a by-committee pitcher’s duel 2-1 on Monday, then whipped the Dodgers again on Tuesday with a 5-run rally and another awesome slugging performance from Manny Machado. Wednesday night’s dreary 6-0 loss, in which the Padres stranded and squandered double-digit base runners, was another story. I’m old-fashioned enough to think live bats are a good sign for the 3rd-place Pads despite the disappointing lack of a sweep opportunity. But if I can find Bums at (-130) or (-135) following last night’s triumph, I’m in for 2 units.

Pick: Dodgers 

8/12

Surprising NL East Leaders Still Underdogs in Hogtown

Chronic postponements are making MLB standings look bizarre, making it hard to tell exactly how well the league’s underdogs are doing. This much is certain – the Miami Marlins are exceeding expectations at the 1/3 pole, or really the 1/5 pole as far as the Florida club is concerned. In the 11 games the Fish have been able to compete in, Miami has won 7 times, and the ballclub even acquitted itself fairly well in an 0-3 stretch since Friday. Betting action has Toronto (standing at a proud 6-8 mind you) a (-154) favorite in Wednesday’s follow-up against the visiting Marlins. The consensus seems to be that probable Miami pitcher Jordan Yamamoto will get socked out of the box by the Blue Jays, but if that’s the case, why an (8.5) run O/U line with a shrinking Under payoff?! I’m not recommending the Over because Yamamoto is certain to get blown away, but because if he does, the clearly-underrated guests are likely to fight back from the plate.

Pick: Over 

A Gambling Pick Solid Enough to Break Protocol

Is there an advantage for National League clubs which have played less games so far? The obvious answer is yes. Books have been written about keeping batters and pitchers healthy and at maximum efficiency over a 200-day marathon. Philadelphia has its share of COVID complications yet has also only played 12 games, with most postponements having been timed all together, giving the Philly pitching stable a nice long rest in late July. However the Baltimore Orioles (+155), who have played 15 times, beat the Phillies 10-9 with a tremendous road comeback on Tuesday and have momentum headed into Wednesday’s match-up vs Zach Eflin.

The outcome underscored weaknesses in Philadelphia’s bullpen and the fact that Philly owns only 1 shut-out so far despite a scenario in which hurlers could potentially out-pitch their ERAs. I’m not feeling leaky-defense favorites in a season where underdog managers are likely to try anything to stay above .500.

Oh, and apologies to readers who click here for the nightcap pick – we’ll get back to the west coast for Thursday but these eastern ballgames appear to offer best value at present. Pick: Orioles 

8/11

Porcello Tries to Perk Up Desperate Mets

We learned a tough lesson about COVID-19 complications yesterday – even as the pandemic has hampered clubs vying for the 2020 World Series, the long break has also helped batters prepare in-secret for pitches they knew would eventually come. Washington made mince-meat out of New York’s stable in a 4-game series opener, scoring 7 runs in the 5th inning of a 16-4 blow-out. The Mets are clearly not driving-in enough base-runners. Jeff McNeil and Wilson Ramos got on base a combined 5 times and scored a combined 1 run. More immediate is the fact that the club’s pace has it winding up at 14-20 after 34 ballgames, the type of start that a shortened season makes it nearly-impossible to recover from. Big Apple hosts will be playing urgent baseball for better or worse, but the bullpen did have a couple of decent innings on Monday, potentially boding well for a rebound if the bleeding stops. Rick Porcello’s stats aren’t amazing, but the Mets’ probable Tuesday starter smoked the Nats in his last outing. Washington (-150) has heavy artillery on the mound in the form of Max Scherzer. But the NY Run Line is strangely appealing for a 2nd day.

Pick: Mets Run Line (+1.5) 

Handicappers Hail Halos as Strong Tuesday Favorite

Tuesday night’s alternative L.A.-themed nightcap pits the swooning L.A. Angels vs the visiting AL West leaders from Oakland. Gamblers appear to love the Angels in game 2 of the series following a dramatic 10-9 victory in the opener. Mike Trout is fully engaged and could be nearing the height of his powers after a Roy Hobbs-like 4 hits, 4 runs, and 3 RBIs on 5 at-bats. Los Angeles manager Pop Fischer, er, Joe Maddon has P Dylan Bundy lined-up to start against Oakland’s Mike Fiers in a match-up that has bettors rushing to pitch the Halos at (-145). Bundy’s recent outings include a nice complete game W against Seattle, but gamblers could be forgetting that the 12-5 Athletics, not the 7-11 Mariners are facing the Angels tonight.

Pick: Athletics 

8/10

Gambling Public Sees Nats Beating Mets in Big Apple

Previews posted at 9 AM SoCal time aren’t exactly adherent to Daily Double’s promise of “nightly” updates, but sometimes waiting for 12-18 hours of gambling action can help to reveal MLB line-movement. 1 such shift is occurring in markets for New York Mets vs Washington Nationals on Monday evening, as gamblers have moved what was essentially a “pick’em” moneyline to (-120) for the visiting Nats. That’s a lot of optimism when you consider the circumstances. Washington is 4-7, has been ravaged by COVID-19 postponements, and still has players refusing to participate in the season. But the Mets have a losing record of their own and will be facing Patrick “Colossus: The Corbin Project” Corbin, whom New York lost to in his last trip to the mound.

Pick: Mets Run Line (+1.5) 

Dodgers Underrated in Las Vegas…Really?

All of the fundamentals appeared to be in place for the L.A. Dodgers to carry a skinny favorite’s moneyline into Monday night’s opener against the San Diego Padres. Sin City loves power-hitting teams with strong pitching, and Dustin May is expected to make another quality start for the Bums. The Dodgers have also beaten the Pads in 7 of the last 8 meetings. But gamblers are taking the underdog visitors (+135) like hotcakes with probable pitcher Garrett Richards, who came close to beating L.A. in his last appearance. The Padres also just won a rubber match vs Arizona thanks to 9 early runs and big outings at the plate from Wil Myers and Manny Muchado, giving the 9-7 club at least a semblance of momentum in the season’s 2nd quarter.

Pick: Dodgers 

8/9

NL Central Series Gets Serious on the Mound

To state the obvious, the Cincinnati Reds are having a better time with the current series than the last. Cincinnati dropped 3 out of 4 ballgames to the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field, losing the closing contest by an embarrassing 13-0 score. But the Reds have dominated a subsequent 3-game stint in Milwaukee so far, putting on a 6-run rally in the 2nd inning of Friday’s win and riding a 3-run shot from Eugenio Suárez, who is working through a bad start after rehabbing a shoulder injury, in game 2. Bookmakers gave the Brewers a slight edge on the moneyline for Sunday afternoon’s closer as Brandon Woodruff is scheduled to start for the Brew Crew, but gamblers like P Sonny Gray and Cincinnati at (-106) despite Milwaukee’s motivation to avoid a sweep. The pair of solid starting hurlers has taken the O/U total down to (7.5), but Under bets on such low numbers are somewhat dubious with pitchers getting micro-managed as if there were 600 games and not 60 games in the 2020 season.

Pick: Brewers

SNB Anticipation a Sign of the Times

99 times out of 100, when you hear or read the words “these changing times” or “these troubled times,” it refers to COVID-19 precautions and social distancing. But things are changing in the world of competitive sports too. A match-up of Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox might not have been highly-anticipated in 2019, but the improving ChiSox are a (+114) wager in their 1st Sunday Night Baseball appearance in 5 years after posting a winning record in the opening 15 ballgames. Fans who are excited to finally pick a strong White Sox team to win should look at the pitching match-up again, though – Shane Bieber vs Lucas Giolito should give the Indians a better than (-134) chance to prevail even though Giolito held the Indians scoreless in 6 innings in his last appearance vs Cleveland. 5-innings bets on Cleveland are an even better idea.

Pick: Indians 5-innings bet 

8/8

Picking a Side in Philly – Bookmakers or Wiseguys

The fundamentals seemed to be in place for Philadelphia to be a slight favorite over Atlanta on Saturday evening. Rain, not COVID, forced a postponement on Friday, giving the hosts an extra day to prepare for a 9-5 team while the Braves had to deal with cautious travel and lodging. The popular veteran Jake Arrieta is scheduled to start for the Phillies. But moneyline gamblers have swapped the sides in Las Vegas as Atlanta is now a (-115) favorite behind probable starter Kyle Wright, who pitched 3 scoreless innings against the Yankees in his last outing.

Pick: Braves and/or Under (10) 

Bettors Blank on Rockies in Seattle Follow-Up

A line that should be moving in the home team’s direction is Colorado’s (-108) odds to beat the Mariners for the 2nd time in 2 tries on Saturday night. Yes, we’ve blogged here that MLB outcomes are still volatile from day-to-day despite the shortened season. But if 1 NHL team was 10-3 as the Rockies are, and its opponent was 4-8 as the Mariners are, would that produce a favorite’s moneyline?

Pick: Rockies 

8/7

Aces Spade Hole for O/U Number in Tampa

When the PGA Tour began timing shots, players didn’t change their routines. They just walked to the ball faster. MLB managers have taken a similar approach to handling the shortened season of 2020, yanking pitchers off the mound and going deep into the bullpen despite a lessened danger of fatigue. Skippers may believe that if their clubs get to the postseason, each hurler’s lack of substantial innings-pitched could make aces of an entire stable. Bettors are counting on 2 aces to hold the run total down in Tampa on Friday evening, as expected starters Blake Snell and Masahiro Tanaka are helping the O/U total drop to (8) runs and potentially lower. The pair combined for less than 6 innings pitched in each’s latest start, however, and so the bets are really being placed on a pair of bullpens to hold-off talented batting lineups. If the ballgame does turn into a deadlocked pitcher’s duel, extra innings is another factor that could produce an Over outcome.

Pick: Over 

Bums Drawing Betting Action as Usual vs Gigantes

The L.A. Dodgers opened as a 1-to-2.4 favorite to defeat the visiting San Francisco Giants on Friday night, a paltry payoff indeed. But MLB gamblers went right ahead and took the Bums to win for an 8th time in 10 outings, driving L.A.’s line to (-260) payoff on a series-opening win. Host hurler Julio Urias is expected to out-pitch Jeff Samardzija of the visitors, but that’s not the only factor discouraging wagers on the 6-8 Giants. San Francisco (+220) was nearly swept by the Colorado Rockies in 4 games at Coors Field this week. As has been the case a few times this season, betting action is focused on the moneyline when the Over (9) is a solid pick at 1-to-1 odds. It would probably take the Giants at least 6 runs to beat the Dodgers, but if the ballgame goes as expected, L.A. will knock Samardzija and the San Fran bullpen around in several innings.

Pick: Over 

8/6

Bookie, Gambler Cat-Mouse Continues in AZ

Bookmakers may have expected gamblers to be all over the Over (9) for Chase Field on Thursday night, considering that Arizona won Wednesday’s ballgame with a hell of an offensive explosion. The Diamondbacks scored 9 runs in the 4th inning to double-up the Houston Astros 14-7, and the Snakes outfield combined for 6 hits and 7 RBIs. When Sin City offered-up a skimpy (-120) payoff on the Over, however, bettors took to picking Zac Gallen and visiting Brandon Bielak to hurl a low-scoring duel in the series closer on Thursday. Gallen doesn’t average many innings, though, and once again the O/U angle leads to an even better pick on the moneyline. Houston has consistently punished average pitching so far in 2020 and should score enough runs to win late in the rubber match.

Pick: Astros 

Fans Hypnotized by Low Scores in Chicago-Milwaukee Series

If 2 Major League ballclubs have 2 low-scoring games in a row, it’s not a trend. If they have 3 or 4 pitcher’s duels in a row, it still might not be a trend…even in a short season. Gamblers ought to be taking the Over (9) for Thursday night’s White Sox vs Brewers rubber match but the O/U payoff lines are stationary so far. Yes, each club’s defense deserves credit, but there’s no evidence to suggest Thursday’s starters are anything to write Milwaukee about. Gio Gonzales of the ChiSox walked 3 batters and gave up 5 hits before getting yanked in the 4th inning in a shaky August 1st win, and Josh “Suitcase” Lindblom of the Brew Crew has played in 9 stints for 8 teams on 2 continents since 2012.

Pick: Over 

8/5

Cubs Massively Popular Favs for KC Night Meeting

We’ve half-complained at Daily Double that too many MLB betting lines are sitting still, not allowing for enough useful angles to gauge whether the public is right or wrong. That could be changing if the odds on Kansas City vs Chicago Cubs are any indication. Gamblers flew to buy-in on Yu Darvish and Chicago’s formerly 1-to-1.7 Wednesday moneyline, turning the odds into a lopsided (-220) and (+190) after just hours of action, but the Cubs have a defensive ballclub which has only won once after giving up more than 5 runs. KC might do some surprising damage against the Cubbies’ bullpen although the teams are certainly headed in opposite directions nearing the 1/4 pole. Darvish is unlikely to go 8-9 innings.

Pick: Cubs 5-inning bet 

Halos Might Be Weaker Favorite Than Advertised

The Seattle Mariners and L.A. Angels are at least partially glad to be playing each other, badly needing victories lest a short pennant race get far out of grasp by September. The 4-7 Angels struck early with a 3-run rally in the 1st inning of the series opener at T-Mobile Park, with aging slugger Albert Pujols making a crucial difference in the 2-run victory as he has so often in his career in the Midwest and on the coast. Wednesday night could be the Mariners’ turn to retaliate, even with a (-160) moneyline on the visitors and Julio Teheran starting on the mound for the Halos. Seattle’s probable starter Marco Gonzales has beaten the Angels twice in a row and was very solid against Oakland in his final start of 2019.

Pick: Mariners Run Line (+1.5) 

8/4

ChiSox Efficient as Predicted…So Far

It’s time to check-in on the Chicago White Sox following an offseason of glowing predictions (and, of course, lots of waiting). Turns out that the ballclub is doing just fine in the American League, save for a calamitous opening series vs powerful Minnesota. The ChiSox weathered a postponement and 18 innings of above-average pitching from the Cleveland Indians to prevail in the series closer, then ran-up a 5-game winning streak with a sweep of Kansas City and a 6-4 opening win over host Milwaukee. Probable pitcher Lucas Giolito and the Windy City visitors are a (+100) slight underdog for Tuesday’s follow-up at Miller Park, but that might not last many hours after the Monday outcome.

Pick: White Sox

Lines Move Against Correlation for Oakland Opener

Not too many MLB betting lines have been moving well-prior to 1st pitches, but it’s clear from the small handle on Oakland vs Texas that gamblers think the A’s will win Tuesday night’s road opener over the Rangers and that starting hurler Jesus Luzardo will have a lot to do with it. Lone Stars opened as (+115) underdogs but quickly grew to (+135) as the O/U shrank from (8.5) to (8) total runs, making us wonder if anyone has heard of a correlated parlay before. If the contest is lower scoring that means better chances for the underdog, and besides, Lance Lynn on the mound for the visitors could make the guests a true 5-innings favorite no matter what happens in Sin City and London.

Pick: Rangers Run Line (+1.5) 

8/3

Left-Behind Moneyline Could be Key to Monday Money

Daily Double scored its maiden “double-play” of the 2020 season with the Twins and Under (9.5) at Target Field on Sunday, but the winning parlay only begins to make up for WagerBop’s dreadful losing streak to begin the shortened MLB season. Losing streaks happen to all gamblers, and the worst thing you can do is begin counter-intuitive picking against your own predictions. Suppose you’ve handicapped the National League to expect a lot of Under results, and finally start betting the Over in frustration just about when the Under-outcomes kick in? It makes things worse. DD’s confidence-method is to look at O/U lines and “correlated” O/U + moneyline relationships, and there is no better example than the New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies on Monday evening.

The Phillies are a drastic (+270) ML underdog, brought-upon by the COVID complications and New York’s impressive 7-1 record. But just because there are less ballgames this year doesn’t mean that baseball outcomes are necessarily less volatile. Philadelphia has tested its players thoroughly and found no new coronavirus cases; it’s other teams that have cause the postponements of Phillies games. Last but not least, ‘cappers are sticking pat with a 9-run O/U total on the contest. If the ballgame’s going to be that tight, should a talented-yet-idle club be a 3-to-1 underdog in any universe?

Pick: Phillies 

Gigantes a Popular Bet for Mile High City

The 20th-century pro golfer Chi Chi Rodriguez used to put his hat over the hole after sinking birdie putts. When it comes to the Colorado Rockies and probable starting hurler Chi Chi Gonzalez, MLB gamblers don’t want to count their birdies before they hat…or something. San Francisco is a popular underdog pick, shrinking to (+125) on the moneyline and (-130) on the Run Line of (+1.5). I’m taking the Rockies, because we’ve made 1 upset prediction today already. No, really, because expected Giants starter Johnny Cueto has failed and flailed in a number of recent outings without giving-up any garish earned-run totals that would draw gamblers’ attention.

Pick: Rockies 

8/2

Target Field Closer Well-Matched on Mound

5-innings gamblers who picked the Minnesota Twins had a low-stress Saturday afternoon. Minnesota starter Kenta Maeda gave up 0 runs and only 1 hit in the opening 5 frames while 1B Miguel Sanó scored twice with a pair of RBIs in his 1st pair of at-bats. But those lopsided innings were uncharacteristic of how the 4-game series with visiting Cleveland has gone. The clubs split the maiden 2 ballgames while allowing just 7 combined-total runs. Aaron Civale vs host hurler Homer Bailey promises a well-matched opening 5 innings in Sunday afternoon’s series closer. The Twins haven’t been as explosive from the plate as we’re used to, save for a couple of outings against the ChiSox, but Indian bats have been quiet too.

Pick: Twins and/or Under (9.5) 

Astros Still Enigmatic as Series in L.A. Winds Down

We now have a handful of Houston Astros ballgames from which to analyze how well the club is batting without the benefit of illegal video surveillance and communication. Houston looked just fine scoring 9 runs against the L.A. Angels on the road in a 3-game series opener on Friday, and batted well against Seattle while winning 3 out of 4. But the ‘Stros were meek from the plate against the Dodgers in a 2-game sweep by the Bums, making us think that without tricks, the Houston lineup could be another example of a strong, athletic group which batters poor pitching but wanes against strong pitching. The visitors struggled to spark rallies against Halo starter Griffin Canning and will face Shohei Ohtani in Sunday’s closer as a (-125) favorite vs L.A.’s plus-payoff moneyline of (+105).

Pick: Angels 

Lone “Sexy” Underdog Looks for Advantage on Mound 

As was the case for Friday, the odds for Saturday’s ballgames have appeared to “freeze” prior to 1st pitch, with no significant gambling trends toward favorites or underdogs. An exception is the Oakland A’s vs L.A. Angels follow-up at Ring Central Coliseum. Stricken by tragedy and a fatigued autumn in 2019, the Halos opened as a 1.5-to-1 underdog for Game 2 at Oakland before shrinking to (+135). Wiseguys are high on probable visiting pitcher Dylan Bundy, who may benefit from a change of scenery after toiling in Baltimore. Meanwhile, expected A’s starter Sean Manaea was dismissed early by Tampa in his most-recent appearance.

Pick: Over (9) 

Pick: Over (8.5) 

It sure seems like the front-running Houston Astros are at the minus-end of a lot of whopper moneyline markets this season, and sure enough, the ‘Stros are an eye-popping (-400) gamble to beat the woeful Seattle Mariners in the 3rd straight on Saturday night. Houston defeated Seattle for the 2nd outing in a row on Friday and the visitors to Minute Maid Park may have spent all of their remaining competitive juice in an extra-innings loss in the opener. Even the pervasive “bet against the sweep” philosophy isn’t drumming-up much action on the last-place M’s, but action is tight on an O/U total of just (8.5) runs.

Pick: Over 

Pick: Over 

Matched Odds for SNB as Giants Fight Back

There are 2 cardinal sins a team on the fringes of contention cannot make, which are A) losing to bad teams and B) getting swept by the good’uns. Pablo Sandoval and the San Francisco Giants are recently guilty of both as a Dog Days slump threatens to derail the club’s miraculous charge up the standings. Gigantes are officially showing signs of life once more as of this weekend, however, taking a 2-1 series lead on the visiting Philadelphia Phillies when Evan Longoria slugged a winning 2-run homer early on Saturday afternoon. San Francisco (-110) skipper Bruce Bochy faces an awkward moment in his pitching rotation for the Sunday Night Baseball closer with still-developing southpaw Conner Menez scheduled to start against Jake Arrieta of the Phillies.

Pick: Phillies to win