2019 Final Four Futures Tracker – Why it Makes Sense to Bet Virginia

Oh boy! All those top seeds in the Elite Eight made for quite a thrilling ride. The average margin of the four games at the end of regulation was under 2 points, leading some to call this the best Elite Eight in NCAA tournament history.

A couple of big boys fell this past weekend in Duke and Gonzaga. UNC and Michigan also watched their title chances bite the dust following disappointing performances.

With just 3 games remaining in the 2019 college hoops season, who has the best chance of hoisting that trophy and which team provides the best value? I say Virginia and Virginia. Why do I say that? Let’s dig in together.

Virginia Cavaliers Odds to Win NCAA Tournament

These upsets leave the lone 1-seed Virginia as tournament favorites on Bovada. With the easiest of the two Final Four matchups (on paper, of course), the Hoos are a better bet to reach the championship game than are either TTU or MSU.

Bovada has UVA as 5-point favorites against Auburn and -230 on the ML. Compare this to the favored Spartans who are only -3 and -150. Vegas predicts the Cavs have a higher likelihood of playing on Monday.

Here are those championship futures odds.

Team	Odds to Win Championship
Virginia	+150
Michigan St	+185
Texas Tech	+425
Auburn	+600

Even though they have the tightest odds, I just put some money down on the Cavs to win the title. Here’s why:

I watched the Virginia-Purdue game. I also watched the Auburn-Kentucky game. Virginia won the eye test, by far.

The Cavs withstood Carsen Edwards’ onslaught with terrific play of their own and seemingly hit every important shot down the stretch. I cannot say the same for Auburn.

Jared Harper is quick alright, but he missed several shots around the hoop. The Auburn bigs were also noticeably worse than Virginia’s bigs at finishing after offensive rebounds and after inside passes to the post from their teammates. This aspect alone could swing a game by a matter of 4 or 6 points, making all the difference.

Dominant on Both Ends – Bet Virginia for Their Offense and Defense

Having a solid offense and a solid defense is the key to winning championships. 16 of the last 17 NCAA champs have ranked in the top-20 of offensive efficiency and 16 of the last 17 have ranked in the top-15 of defensive efficiency.

Guess which of the 4 remaining squads is the only to hold both of those distinctions this year? You guessed it, UVA.

Of course, you have to take everything with a grain of salt this time of year. Numbers and stats can often go right out the window when a freshman guard brings the ball up with 2 minutes remaining in a Final Four game.

Instead of just betting the best team on paper, we want to bet a team that has proven they can win championships. Auburn won the SEC and MSU won the B10. Virginia cannot say the same.

I still have faith in the Hoos, however, because they exhibited flashes of greatness all the way back in November. Many fans and bettors alike often dismiss early-season tournaments as inconsequential, but I say we can learn from them.

One parallel between those early-season tourneys and the big dance in March is teams have to travel great distances to play their games on neutral courts. Virginia had the privilege of competing in the Battle for Atlantis down in the Bahamas. The Hoos showed up and beat Middle Tennessee, Dayton, and Wisconsin to claim the title. Now UVA must travel in the other direction, to the frozen north, and play in Minneapolis.

Knock this team all you want, but I will leave with these words: Virginia lost 3 games this year. 2 to the tournament favorite Duke and 1 to Sweet 16-bound Florida St. I see every reason to have confidence in the Cavs.

See you on top!