2019 March Madness Futures: Handicapping the Best of the ACC

Covering NCAA basketball is a day-to-day proposition. No sooner had the Wagerbop staff charted the futures odds and corresponding betting value of Atlantic Coast Conference contenders when a veritable earthquake struck the campus of Duke University.

Zion Williamson suffered what could be a significant knee sprain on Wednesday night, and a distracted and demoralized Blue Devil squad lost the game to North Carolina 88-72.

The reverberations are so intense that even Nike is getting heat for Williamson’s footwear becoming unglued during the freshman’s fateful spill at the foul stripe.

Duke’s futures line to win the national title has already begun shifting from (+150) to what will likely be around (+200) or longer when the dust settles.

But is Vegas overreacting to one result and/or one relatively-minor injury?

Let’s look at where some of the top contenders stand after several months of battle on the hardcourt…and where the lines-to-win March Madness are at MyBookie.

Duke Blue Devils ((+190) Odds-to-Win the NCAA Tournament)

The Blue Devils have recently ascended to the top of the AP Poll, and Coach K’s frosh-laden squad was (until Wednesday) as hot as any team in the country.

The dynamic teenage duo of the 6’7” Williamson and silky-smooth R.J. Barrett has taken the NCAA by storm while producing a gaggle of jaw-dropping highlights. Whether it is Barrett showing off his versatility and scoring touch, or Williamson flushing monster jams, the current projected favorites to go 1-2 in the NBA Draft are each putting up 20+ points per night.

Don’t forget the 3rd wheel. 6’8” freshman forward Cam Reddish is having a remarkable debut season in his own right.

A national TV audience was treated to one of the greatest 2nd-half comebacks in hoops history last Tuesday as Duke hoodwinked a hot Louisville team that appeared to have gotten into “garbage time” with a massive 23-point lead.

Coach K made a brilliant move by switching to a zone defense that encouraged Louisville to fall asleep and take over-confident, low-percentage shots.

Will the home-court loss to North Carolina – or the temporary loss of Williamson – break the team’s momentum? It’s not likely.

Duke has been relentless on the boards, topping the ACC with 14 offensive rebounds per contest. The squad can put up points-by-committee if necessary.

But the upset defeat has to give bettors pause who were prepared to go all-in on the Blue Devils at (+150) or shorter national-title odds.

Virginia Cavaliers (+800)

The Cavaliers are on pace to secure a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament for the 3rd time in the last 4 years. But we remember how things turned out for UVA as a #1 seed last season. Tony Bennett’s squad is determined to erase the memory of an historic loss to #16 seed UMBC. Duke is responsible for the only 2 Cavalier losses on the 2018-19 season.

Bennett’s club has cared for the ball like a prized possession, committing the 3rd-fewest turnovers in Division 1. The defense has been suffocating all season long (surprise, surprise) and no D1 college team has held opponents to fewer points. UVA is holding opponents to an awful 37.7% from the field.

The backcourt powers the Cavs offense. A standout trio of 6’2” junior Kyle Guy, 6’5” junior Ty Jerome, and 6’7” redshirt sophomore De’Andre Hunter all average 13+ per outing. All are deadly 3-point shooters.

But don’t forget about Jack Salt, a monster of an upperclassman who meets over-confident opponents in the paint for a rude awakening of their own.

North Carolina Tar Heels (+2500)

Roy Williams’ team has a golden opportunity to surpass arch-rival Duke and possibly jump to a #1 seed for March Madness. The rousing road win over an angry Coach K and a shorthanded host makes the teams equal in the ACC loss column.

Williams likes when his teams take off running, but the veteran skipper has preached efficiency and sharing the basketball over the winter. The Tar Heel offense leads the ACC in assists and ranks 2nd in the nation with 87.5 points per contest.

Versatile 6’9” senior guard Cameron Johnson has led the scoring blitz, averaging over 16 points and 5 rebounds while shooting an outstanding 47.9% from beyond the arc. 6’8” senior forward Luke Maye is a constant threat to put up a double-double and is the team’s most reliable presence in the paint.

Syracuse Orange (+5000)

The Orangemen beat the Tar Heels to the punch by knocking-off Duke earlier in the season, but the 95-91 OT victory may not have been quite as convincing as UNC’s shocking blow-out of the March Madness favorites.

Coach Jim Boeheim’s tenacious 2-3 defense has been a masterwork of forced turnovers, and the Orangemen are among the best ball-hawking defenses in the nation with a theft average of 8.1.

6’6” Syracuse guard Tyus Battle is having a monster year with a 17.4 scoring average highlighted by a 32-point outburst in the Duke win.

Louisville Cardinals (+7500)

Chris Mack’s team had raced out to a 7-1 start in ACC play, but a recent string of wasted opportunities have put the Cardinals in the 2nd tier of the ACC standings. The Cardinals may still be rattled after blowing a 20+ point lead to Duke last week.

Turnovers have plagued the Cardinals all season. A miserable 13.1 turnover average must be cleaned up before tournament time. Maybe that’s not any worse than UNC’s turnover problem, but Louisville is a little bit less high-powered and has a small margin of error.

The unsung leader of the Cardinal offense is 6’7” sophomore forward Jordan Nwora, who leads the team in scoring (17.5) and rebounding (7.7).

ACC Basketball: Recommended Futures Bet for March Madness

Forget the Zion Williamson boo-boo. It’s probably a bad idea to bet on any 2-to-1 futures line for the national title on general principle. Gonzaga is a better bet and so are several other schools.

And the North Carolina Tar Heels were already a dynamite play at (+2500) before the Duke-UNC surprise on Wednesday night.

Williams’ program might be stocked with a few NBA and Euro-league hopefuls, but it’s not a Kentucky-type situation where a bunch of disgruntled 7-footers are missing class, missing shots and whiffing on easy plays while dreaming of riches and redheads.

The Tar Heels might be a little careless with the ball in winter, but the great coach and his squad are likely to get that worked out by early spring. There are few other weaknesses on a roster filled with size and talent.

UNC’s line will likely shorten to (+2000) or so by this weekend. The sooner you can put a few dollars on North Carolina to prevail in the Final Four, the better.