Do you watch NFL games with the intention of making money? You can and you should!
Three weeks into the 2020 NFL season and several strong betting trends have emerged – just waiting to be preyed upon and turned into cash.
Some look at NFL box scores and see a chaotic assortment of statistics. We see lost opportunities, misleading results, and opportunities to exploit scenarios the general public misses.
Check out our favorite Week 3 NFL trends and learn where your money should go in Week 4!
Overs are Hot
The over is 27-18-3 this season. That’s a 60% winning percentage – good for $720 in profits (14.5% ROI). Last year, overs were only 43.5% through the first 3 weeks and an even 50% for the entire regular season.
Each of these percentages are well below the 52.4%-mark needed to break even on (-110) bets. Overs were a -EV play last year but appear to be very profitable this season.
Where Trends Are NOT
Home-field advantage is officially dead in the NFL. Removing fans from the stands has taken away the slim edge host teams used to enjoy. Against the spread, home teams are 23-23-2 in 2020.
The Vegas handicappers are on top of their game this season – setting extremely accurately point spreads. Favorites are 23-23-2. Some years are dominated by underdogs while others are controlled by the favorites. 2020 is a year of balance – the toughest type of year in which to turn a profit.
Location, Location, Location
Sorting games by location begins to uncover some profitable trends. Teams from the AFC or NFC West are playing exceptionally well in their home games. Western teams are 7-4-1 ATS this year when hosting. This is a 63.6% win rate – good for $260 in profits (21.5% ROI).
Excluding games in which a Western team hosts another Western team – these teams are 6-3-1 on the year ATS. This is an even better 66.6% win rate which is good for $270 in profits (27.3% ROI).
Bet unders in games hosted by Western teams. The under is 8-3-1 (72.7%) in games hosted by a team from the AFC or NFC West. In a season dominated by overs, the West Coast is the land of unders.
It is a different story when Eastern teams host. Teams from the AFC East or NFC East are 2-6 ATS (25%) this season versus non-Eastern opponents. The over is 6-2 in these games (75%) as would be expected in an over-heavy season.
Big Birds
The Ravens are the largest betting favorites of 2020. The Birds are 2-1 both SU and ATS. Baltimore’s average point spread in 2020 is -8.1. The Ravens were -8.5 against Cleveland in Week 1, -7.5 against Houston in Week 2, -3 against Kansas City in Week 3, and are -13.5 against the Re*****s in Week 4.
The Patriots were the largest favorites of 2019 with an average spread of -9.4. The Ravens were second with a -5.6 average line. The loss of Tom Brady has weakened New England in Vegas’ eyes. The 2020 Pats are receiving an average point spread of -1.8 – the 12th-shortest mark in the league. The Colts, Steelers, and Eagles are all heavier favorites than New England this year – not exactly the class of the league.
The largest underdog in the NFL this season is the Washington Football Team. The Re*****s are +9.3 on average, nearly 2 points longer than the Jaguars. Washington is 1-2 both SU and ATS this year.
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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