The Week 6 slate of NFL action concluded with a couple of thrilling 3-point primetime games. We should expect nothing less during the best weeks of the NFL season.
Weeks 5-8 almost always produce outstanding football. Rookies now have experience, quarterbacks and play callers are in a rhythm, each team is peaking, and all 32 teams are still in it.
Losing 3 or 4 early games in the NFL season can render postseason aspirations a mere pipe dream. Pro Football Reference data shows that teams who start 3-3 have just a 38% shot at the postseason historically.
4-4 teams reach the postseason at a 33% rate. Play to a 4-3 record through 7 games, however, and your chances stand at 50%. 5-3 gives you a 67% shot.
In a league founded on parity where long winning streaks are nearly unheard of, gobbling up wins early is the only recipe toward earning a spot in the postseason bracket.
The Week 7 slate is void of any eye popping matchups, which gives football fans more time to reminisce on what a great week of pigskin we witnessed in Week 6.
Here are some takeaways following Week 6 that are sure to scratch that spot you can’t reach.
13 for 13 – 13 Facts on the 13 Most-Likely 2021 Postseason Contenders
Using probability data from FootballOutsiders the following 13 teams have the best odds to reach the postseason in the NFL.
Cowboys (5-1, 93.9%)
The Cowboys are making a mockery of opposing defenses – leading the league in yards per game (460.8), points scored per game (34.2), and 2nd in rushing yards per game (164.3) behind only Cleveland.
Packers (5-1, 88.1%)
In classic Aaron Rodgers fashion – the Packers do an excellent job of holding onto the football – ranking 3rd in the entire NFL with just 5 giveaways over their first 6 games played.
Buccaneers (5-1, 97.9%)
Talk about Tom Brady all you want but the real strength of the Bucs is a stingy run defense that holds opponents to a league-low 54.8 yards per game.
Knowing they can’t run on Tampa, teams resort to airing it out which gives the Bucs loads of opportunities for picks – which they don’t miss. Tampa Bay has intercepted 7 passes in their first 6 games which is the 5th-most in football behind 4 other winning teams.
Saints (3-2, 68.0%)
Evident of a major schematic shakeup from years’ past, the post-Drew Brees New Orleans Saints are passing for the 2nd-fewest yards in football at 169.4 per game. The Saints still manage to score a lot of points – ranking 10th in the NFL with 25.4 on average in each contest.
Cardinals (6-0, 96.3%)
Arizona leads football in wins (6) but does many things well in order to achieve those wins. The Cards rank within the top third of the league in total offensive yards, passing yards, rushing yards, and points scored per game.
Rams (5-1, 92.8%)
Sean McVay has been labeled an offensive genius and he captured lightning in a bottle in 2018 – winning 13 games in the regular season and earning a date with New England in the 2019 Super Bowl.
The Rams had accomplished great things with Jared Goff under center. Matt Stafford is a big upgrade no matter how you slice it and the results speak for themselves. This season, Los Angeles ranks 4th in passing yards per game (297.5) behind only Tom Brady and TB, Patty Mahomes and KC, and the air-it-out Raiders with Derek Carr.
A prolific passing game allows the Rams to be one of the 8 teams in the NFL this year averaging over 400 yards of offense per game.
Bills (4-2, 97.7%)
Wyoming-product Josh Allen has progressed from disappointing draft pick to serviceable quarterback to bona fide stud.
The Bills are 4-2, beat Kansas City by 2 touchdowns at Arrowhead, have already notched 2 shutout victories in 2021, and are 2nd in the NFL in points scored per game at 33.8.
Ravens (5-1, 93.2%)
The Ravens have a pretty good quarterback – Lamar something …
Baltimore ranks 4th in offensive yards gained per game (421.7), 4th in rushing yards per game (155.2), and 7th in points scored per game (28.3).
Bengals (4-2, 53.7%)
Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase make the national headlines but defense is the reason for the turnaround in Cincinnati.
The Bengals boast a solid defensive front – limiting opponents to 90.5 rushing yards per game (8th-fewest in the NFL).
Good luck scoring on Cincy, especially as the weather turns sour. The Bengals rank 5th in the league in fewest points allowed per game at (18.5).
Browns (3-3, 52.4%)
The Browns will pound the rock relentlessly – leading the NFL in rushing yards per game (170.4). 4th-year back out of Georgia Nick Chubb is 2nd in the league in rushing yards with 523 behind only Derrick Henry.
Titans (4-2, 73.6%)
Speaking of Derrick Henry, the dude is a monster. The Alabama product leads the NFL in rushing yards with 783 – over 250 yards more than the next leading rusher.
Henry’s output allows Tennessee to be the 3rd-leading rushing team in the NFL (164.2 per game)
and score the 8th-most points in football (27.7 per game).
Chiefs (3-3, 70.8%)
Despite the 3 early losses, Kansas City can still move the ball. The Chiefs are 2nd in the NFL in total yards per game (433.5), 2nd in passing yards per game (308.5), and 5th in points scored per game (30.8).
Chargers (4-2, 62.5%)
Los Angeles defends the pass as well as any team – ranking 3rd in passing yards per game allowed (201.8).
The Bolts take the ball away from their opponents frequently – ranking 7th in the league with 9 takeaways in 6 games.
Scoregami
Rams 38 – Giants 11
The Rams traveled 3 hours into the future last Sunday and easily handled the fledgling Giants 38-11 in the Meadowlands.
Matt Stafford was exceptional – completing 22 of 28 passes for 251 yards and 4 scores while Daniel Jones was the opposite – barely completing 50% of his passes and netting a QBR of 6.
A 65-point difference in QBRs between starting signal callers is quite rare but the 38-11 final score was a first in NFL history.
Scoregami was achieved when Daniel Jones hit Kyle Rudolph for a 2-point conversion after scoring a garbage-time TD to make it 38-9. A 38-9 score is nothing special – that score has occurred in 9 NFL games – most recently when Buffalo toppled New England by that score in December of 2020.
38-11 was a brand new score, however, and it took some defensive effort over the last 6 minutes of game time to preserve the Scoregami … but we made it!
The Giants scored first and last in this game – which is normally a winning recipe. That recipe typically doesn’t call for 38 unanswered Rams points in between, though.
Cowboys 35 – Patriots 29
Belichick and the boys took Dallas to the wire – beyond the wire, even – as the favored Cowboys needed OT to defeat the Pats and earn their 5th victory.
This game flirted with some rare scores – and even achieved one – although true Scoregami was not achieved on Sunday.
35-29 is a final score that has occurred in just 1 other NFL game – when New Orleans bested Detroit by that score in October 2020.
Some may have understandably thought that a 29-29 tie – which was a real possibility – would have been Scoregami but the Vikings and Packers ended in a 29-29 tie in September of 2018.
An overtime field goal by either team would have been less special – as a 32-29 score has occurred on 6 separate occasions – most recently in December last year between the Chiefs and Saints.
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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