3 Hot Trends Plus 1 Bonus Totals Bet in Loaded NFL Week 8 Slate

Fade the Carolina Panthers in Week 8 because …

teams who beat a divisional opponent as an underdog are terrible as divisional road dogs the following week.

Carolina took it to Tampa in Week 7 – annihilating Tom Brady and the Bucs 21-3. This was the largest upset of 2022 as the Buccaneers entered the game 2-touchdown favorites.

History says that focusing up and pounding the rock at practice after a victory like this is easier said than done. It’s tough to have that same drive the next week … especially against a divisional opponent … on the road … as the weaker team.

In the past 10 seasons (excluding 2020 because it’s stupid), teams in such a spot are 8-13-1 ATS (38.1% win rate) for a -27% ROI.

BONUS PICK: Take the Under in the CAR-ATL Game

The under is extremely hot when teams who beat a divisional opponent as an underdog are divisional road dogs the following week – as Carolina is in Week 8.

Over the past 10 seasons (again, excluding 2020), the under is 14-8 (63.6%) in such spots for a sparkling 21.5% ROI.

The Vegas total for this contest opened at 42. Traditional football-betting wisdom says to wait until close to kickoff to bet unders as the public is notorious for pouncing on overs and driving up the total.

Waiting until later in the week and hoping to snag an “under 43” or “under 44” is the shrewd play here.

Fade the Arizona Cardinals in Week 8 because …

teams who scored 40+ in a single-digit win are terrible as road dogs the following week.

Arizona outslugged the Saints 42-34 on TNF in Week 7. The Cardinals now head to Minneapolis Sunday afternoon as 3.5-point dogs against the 5-1 Vikings.

Shootouts are fun to watch but can be red flags signaling trouble ahead. Shootouts happen when defenses are tired, undisciplined, slow – or a combination of the 3.

The Cardinals rank 22nd in yards allowed (359.7) and 27th in points allowed per game (25.1) this season. Their defense is not good.

It would be easy to think that offenses will roll after a 40-point performance because they have “momentum”, but that’s usually not the case.

Quarterbacks play with reckless abandonment in the 4th quarter of a 40-35 game. Everything they’ve touched has turned to gold so they get more and more aggressive with their throws – feeling invincible and trying to outshine that guy on the other sideline.

Offensive linemen in shootouts made a habit of dropping back into pass pro each snap of the second half and might resent having to smash their facemask into the 300-pound guy in front of them as they run the ball in the 1st quarter of the next game.

Teams who’ve scored 40+ and won by single digits are excellent options to bet against, historically. Such teams only cover the spread in 44.2% of instances since 2012 – a sample of over 80 games.

Throw in the additional criterion of being a road dog the following week and that ATS win rate plummets to 35.7% over the same span.

Fade the New York Jets in Week 8 because …

winners of 4 straight are terrible bets as home dogs against a division opponent.

The Jets are on a tear – playing better than nearly anyone alive can remember. On the road in Pittsburgh? No problem. A 3-1 Dolphins team? Piece of cake. Lambeau Field? Boring. Mile High? Easy peasy lemon squeezy.

New York is on a 4-game roll for the first time since December of 2015. The Jets have aspirations of catching the Bills for 1st place in the AFC East, but first they need to get through a different Bill – Belichick – and the Patriots in Week 8.

History says they won’t.

Since the beginning of the millennium, teams on winning streaks of 4+ are 4-10-2 ATS when playing as home dogs against a divisional opponent.

The “oddsmaker trap” is in full effect here. By listing the 5-2 Jets at (+2.5) against the 3-3 Pats, oddsmakers are forcing casual bettors to say “you have to bet the Jets, here”.

Keep an eye on line movement as the week progresses. This line could change by leaps and bounds.