49ers Still on Inside With 5 Teams on Their Heels in Latest NFC Playoff Picture

This is the Week 16 NFC Playoff Picture. For the AFC Playoff Picture, click here.

The Green Bay Packers became the first team in football last week to clinch a postseason berth of any type, let alone a division win.

After the Thursday night 49ers-Titans game, the Cowboys became the second team to clinch a berth as the 49ers loss ensured we will see America’s Team in the playoffs.

Analyzing the entire 16-team field, the AFC is the stronger conference in football this season. If we’re just talking about star power though, the nod has to go to the NFC.

Entering Week 16 play, there were 5 NFC teams with double-digit win totals. Only the Chiefs had 10+ wins in the AFC before Week 16 action kicked off.

We’re one of only 5 teams in NFL history to win 10+ games in SEVEN straight seasons‼️ pic.twitter.com/mIf09Xzalk

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 23, 2021

The NFC field dries up real quick after the Packers, Cowboys, Bucks, Cardinals, and Rams. The 49ers are currently sitting in the 6 seed at 8–6 and feeling extremely comfortable whereas in the AFC the Baltimore Ravens are also 8-6 and would be out of the playoff field if the season ended today.

The reason that San Francisco can feel so comfortable is because the next-closest teams are a three-way 7–7 trio of the Vikings, Eagles, and Saints. The Re*****s and Falcons also have chances to reach the playoffs at 6–8.

In Week 15, the Packers, Cardinals, and Buccaneers were tied atop the NFC with 10 wins. Of the 3, Green Bay played by far the toughest game – having to travel into Baltimore and take on a hungry Ravens squad.

The Cardinals received the softest opponent in the whole league – the 1-win Lions while Tampa Bay scored a primetime home game against an inferior Saints team.

As is often the case in the NFL, things did not go how we thought. The Cardinals were clawed off the field by the Lions while the Bucs failed to score against New Orleans. The Packers resolve was tested as Baltimore elected to go for two and the win late in the fourth quarter on Sunday, but Green Bay’s goal line defense held strong and the Packers are now alone in 1st place in the conference because of it.

Falling asleep at the wheel and allowing the Lions to beat them really hurt the Cardinals’ playoff seeding.

The Lions are playing the AFC North and NFC West this season – meaning that the Rams and 49ers both got an easy win earlier this season.

Of course, the Lions play the Packers and Vikings twice. The Lions 2 other conference games are against the Eagles and Falcons – who are also both in playoff contention.

With so many teams in direct competition with Arizona in the standings getting an easy win (or 2), the Cards shot themselves in the foot by not being ready for the Lions and failing to capitalize on an opportunity to remain atop the conference.

This season, the NFC has the opposite problem the AFC has. We are all worried that a good team with a winning record is going to get snubbed of the playoff bracket in the AFC. Not so in the NFC.

In fact we are hoping that a team with a losing record doesn’t sneak into the NFC playoffs for the second season in a row. 2021 has the potential to be the first season in which a sub-.500 team qualifies for the playoffs as a Wild Card. With so many teams clumped up at 7-7 and 6-8, we could see an 8-9 WC in the NFC bracket this January.

Although the AFC is the deeper conference, it is hard to generate a deep list of legitimate title contenders. Not so in the NFC. You can easily make Super Bowl cases for teams all the way down to the fifth-seed Rams who have as much star power as any team in the NFL.

Now that the Chiefs are back in business, many are picking them to come out of the AFC. Others like the Patriots under Bill Belichick. Predictions have a much wider range in the NFC.

Is it plausible for Aaron Rodgers to play awesome football down the stretch and shut the haters up for his 2nd Super Bowl victory? Of course it is! I love that pick!

Is it within the realm of possibility that Tom Brady embarks his team on another miraculous stretch run and claims his 48th championship (give or take)? You betcha!

Can Jerry Jones win his first championship since 1995-96? Yeah, he’s got to at some point, right?

How about the Cardinals. Dynamic quarterback, lots of play makers, a coach who excels at calling plays that maximize his team strengths. Yeah, they’re going to be a tough out in the postseason as well.

The aforementioned Rams? Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay are a deadly combination. Now Stafford has got OBJ to throw to along with a star-studded defense that can keep the Rams in games if Stafford suffers one of his signature cold 1st halves.

Even the Eagles at 7–7 deserve some recognition. Philly can run the football down anyone’s throat – they’ve proven that. An elite rushing attack with a dual-threat quarterback on a team full of talented, smash mouth players with an underdog mentality – that’s dangerous!

Week 16 could see several NFC teams clinch spots while others could eliminate themselves with a loss. With so much hanging in the balance we need to break down the scenarios so you know what to root for over the Christmas weekend. Let’s get into it!

Green Bay Packers 11-3

Best Odds to Receive First-Round Bye

The Packers are a great football team. This team has built resilience by navigating injuries, COVID, and quarterback controversy to emerge a full game ahead of the pack entering Week 16 action.

What Needs to Happen for Green Bay to Clinch the First-Round Bye

Green Bay wins out

• The Packers control their own destiny – as teams with a full 1-game advantage tend to do

OR

Green Bay wins 2 of their remaining 3 games AND the Cowboys don’t win out

• Should the Packers win 2 games and finish 13-4, only the Cowboys could catch Green Bay. The Bucs cannot win a tiebreaker against the Packers, neither can the Rams or Cardinals.

OR

Green Bay wins 1 of their remaining 3 games AND Tampa Bay loses at least 1 of their remaining games AND the Cowboys lose at least 2 of their remaining games AND the Cardinals lose at least 1 of their remaining games AND the Rams lose at least 1 of their remaining games

• Should the Packers stumble and drop 2 of 3 down the stretch, their first-round bye equity drops to a lowly 9%. Needing a ton of help, Green Bay would need to root for losses from all the top teams in the NFC – not a fun spot to be in.

Dallas Cowboys 10-4

The Best Season in Dallas Since 2016

The Cowboys have a shot to double their win total from last season (6) and steal a first-round bye from Green Bay in the process. They’ll need the Packers to lose, but with a playoff berth in hand and a division title imminent, all that is left for the Cowboys is to chase down Green Bay for NFC supremacy.

What Needs to Happen for Dallas to Earn the First-Round Bye

Cowboys win out AND Packers lose 1 of their remaining 3 games

• This is the simplest and most likely takeover scenario for Dallas. The Cowboys are the only NFC team with tiebreaker advantages over the Packers – meaning if Dallas can claw their way into a 13-4 tie, they’ll be favored over the Pack.

Cowboys win 2 of their remaining 3 games AND Green Bay loses 2 of their remaining 3 games AND Tampa Bay loses 1 of their remaining 3 games AND Arizona loses 1 of their remaining 3 games AND the Rams lose 1 of their remaining 3 games

• The Cowboys really can’t afford to lose a game down the stretch if they want to play hookie on Wild Card weekend. Dropping just 1 game of their remaining 3 plummets their first-round bye equity to a mere 2% – needing loads of help.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-4

The Defending Champs Are Back

It would take a miracle of uber-specific outcomes and tiebreaker scenarios for Tampa not to clinch the NFC South title. FiveThirtyEight computes the Bucs’ playoff and division odds to both be >99%.

Clinching the berth is a formality at this point. The Bucs could lose out and still have greater than a 99% chance of reaching the postseason. Let’s just say it – they’re in!

With the division all but locked up, all that’s left for Tampa to play for is that coveted first-round bye. Tom Brady may not need the bye, as he ran the table in last year’s playoffs beginning with Washington in the Wild Card round. It’s something to shoot for, though. Here’s what he’ll need to get there:

What Need to Happen for Tampa Bay to Clinch the First-Round Bye

Tampa Bay wins out AND Green Bay loses 2 of their 3 remaining games AND the Rams lose 1 of their remaining 3 games

• It’s a simple scenario but highly unlikely to occur. The Packers finish with the Browns, Vikings, and Lions. There is only an 11-12% chance the Pack drop 2 of those.

OR

Tampa Bay wins out AND Green Bay loses 2 of their 3 remaining games AND the Cardinals win out

• In this scenario, the Bucs, Rams, and Cardinals all win out – finishing 13-4. The Bucs cannot beat LA in a head-to-head tiebreaker, so Tampa would need Arizona to do some heavy lifting and win out down the stretch to create a 3-way tie.

Arizona Cardinals 10-4

In Line for First Playoff Berth Since 2015

Much like Tampa, the Cardinals hold greater than a 99% chance of qualifying for the postseason – being in awesome shape even if they lose out.

Let’s assume Arizona fans aren’t stressing about getting into the field. How can they elevate their position in the conference? Well, they shouldn’t have lost to Detroit. All is not lost for Arizona. They can still win the NFC West division and even have a miniscule chance at the first-round bye. Want to see how?

What Needs to Happen for Arizona to Clinch the First-Round Bye

The Cardinals win out AND the Packers lose 2 of their remaining 3 games AND the Buccaneers lose 1 of their remaining 3 games

• Doesn’t sound that hard, but it is. The Packers hold just an 11% chance of losing 2 of their last 3 while the Cards possess just a 14% chance of winning out.

What Needs to Happen for Arizona to Win the NFC West

Cardinals win out

• That’s right! Despite losing by 18 to the Lions, Arizona still controls their own destiny in the division.

OR

Cardinals beat Seattle in Week 18 AND the Cardinals win 1 of their other 2 games AND the Rams lose at least 1 of their remaining 3 games

• Dropping a contest down the stretch and finishing at 12-5 would put Arizona in need of a Rams loss.
• The Cards and Rams split their 2 head-to-head matchups this season, so the division record could be a tiebreaker. It is imperative Arizona beats division-foe Seattle in Week 18 as this ensures they’d win the tiebreaker over LA.

OR

Arizona wins their next 2 games but loses to Seattle in Week 18 AND the Rams lose to either Minnesota in Week 16 or San Francisco in Week 18

• If Arizona drops the division contest against Seattle, they would hold the same division record as LA, forcing the tiebreaker into the next step – conference record.
• LA finishes with Minnesota, Baltimore, and San Fran in their final 3. The Cardinals would need a Rams loss versus either Minnesota or San Fran – the Ravens wouldn’t do it.

OR

Arizona wins 1 of their remaining 3 games AND the Rams win no more than 1 of their remaining 3 games

OR

Arizona loses out AND the Rams lose out

Los Angeles Rams 10-4

A Deadly Wild Card Weekend Opponent

Much like the Cardinals and Bucs, the Rams are all but in the playoff bracket – it is only a formality at this point. I will not be repetitive and rehash the NFC West division scenarios. Those can be found directly above in the blurb on the Arizona Cardinals.

What is unique to Los Angeles is their clinching scenario for the first-round bye. Let’s explore the 1% chance the Rams have to accomplish this:

What Needs to Happen for the Rams to Clinch the First-Round Bye

Rams win out AND the Packers lose 2 of their remaining 3 games AND the Cowboys lose at least 1 of their remaining 3 games AND the Cardinals lose at least 1 of their remaining 3 games

• Have you noticed how every single one of the NFC bye-clinching scenarios involves the Packers dropping 2 of 3 down the stretch? Yeah, not very likely.

Once again, for Rams division scenarios read the Cardinals post.

San Francisco 49ers 8-7

A Solid Wild Card Football Team

The 49’ers are out of NFC West contention and thus first-round bye contention. With a full 1-game lead over the next-closest teams, San Fran is in excellent shape (70% favorite) to receive a Wild Card bid in the NFC.

This was written after the Niner’s TNF loss to Tennessee. How cool is it to be a .500 ball club, lose a game in late December, and still be a 70% lock to reach the playoffs?

What Needs to Happen for the 49ers to Make the Playoffs

49ers win out AND any 2 of the Saints/Eagles/Vikings lose 1 game each

• Winning out and finishing 10-7 gives San Fran a 95% chance of playing postseason football. The threat is the trio of 7-7 teams behind them – the Saints, Eagles, and Vikings.
• These teams could also win out, finish 10-7, and beat SF in a tiebreaker scenario. The Niners need at least 2 of these teams to drop 1 game, and they’re good.

OR

49ers lose to Houston in Week 17 but beat the Rams in Week 18 AND the Eagles, Vikings, and Re*****s all lose in Week 16

• This is the earliest possible clinching scenario for the Niners – not likely, but it’s nice to know it could happen this weekend!

OR

49ers lose to Houston in Week 17 but beat the Rams in Week 18 AND the Saints lose 2 of their remaining 3 games AND the Eagles lose 1 game AND the Vikings lose 1 game

OR

49ers lose to Houston in Week 17 but beat the Rams in Week 18 AND the Eagles beat Washington in Week 17 AND the Saints lose to either Carolina in Week 17 or Atlanta in Week 18 AND the Eagles lose at least 1 of their other 2 games

• This is starting to get very convoluted, but just know that a large number of clinching scenarios exist for San Fran so long as they win at least 1 of their remaining 2 games.

OR

49ers beat Houston in Week 17 but lose to the Rams in Week 18 AND the Saints lose 2 of their remaining 3 games AND the Eagles lose 1 game AND the Re*****s lose 1 game

• The Niners’ playoff chances decrease if they beat non-conference Houston but lose to divisional foe Los Angeles.

OR

49ers beat Houston in Week 17 but lose to the Rams in Week 18 AND the Eagles, Vikings, and Re*****s each lose at least 1 game

OR

San Francisco loses out AND hopes that none of the 7-7 teams pass them at 8-9

• If the Niners lose to both Houston and LA down the stretch, they will watch their playoff chances decrease to 14% and be forced to pray that none of the 7-7 teams (or even the 6-8 teams) catch fire.

Vikings, Eagles, Saints 7-7

Assuming San Francisco holds onto the 6 seed (like they should), the 7 seed in the NFC will go to one of these 7-7 teams or one of the 6-8 teams below.

With 5 teams all within a game fighting for 1 playoff spot, the scenarios are broad and endless. Week 16 action will simplify the board and lead to more concrete playoff scenarios for next week.

Re*****s, Falcons Barely Alive at 6-8

It’s pretty straightforward for these two teams – win out and pray for a Christmas miracle.