A Way Way Too Early Look at the MLB Playoff Picture

The 2021 MLB season began 6 weeks ago but I’m an impatient person. I need to talk playoffs.

The 162-game regular season grind is baseball’s calling card but the postseason is what sports are all about. If you aren’t thinking about postseason implications while advancing through the regular season, you aren’t getting the full experience.

In a confusing twist, the MLB is ditching the one-year-experiment of the 16-team postseason in favor of the traditional 10-team bracket in use from 2012-2019. Experts around the league believe we will adopt the 16-team bracket permanently in the 2022 season under the new CBA.

So for one final season (most likely), the MLB playoffs will be the toughest bracket to crack in any of the 4 major pro sports. It normally takes 87 or 88 wins to secure a spot with just 5 teams in each league making the postseason – and many more than that to win a division and avoid the one-game Wild Card play in.

Not only will mid-May playoff implications be discussed today (which are sure to be inaccurate), but I will break down the good and bad from each MLB team through the first 6 weeks of baseball along with what needs to happen for that team to have their shot at hoisting the prized “piece of metal” at the end of the season.

I cite FiveThirtyEight often in this piece. Their MLB Prediction tools are fun to play around with and extremely insightful. FiveThirtyEight has a simulation feature which runs the end of the season 100,000 times and gives the percentages that a given team makes the playoffs, wins their division, or wins the World Series.

Several factors determine a team’s shot of qualifying for postseason baseball – including current record, remaining strength of schedule, health of star players, and strength of division. All 30 MLB teams (even the Tigers) are still very much mathematically alive with well over 100 games to go and will be getting a break down. Let’s get started!

American League

AL Bracket if Season Ended Today

The Boston Red Sox were not supposed to be anything special in 2021, but they find themselves not only in the top spot in the AL East but with the best record in the American League through mid May.

This puts Boston in an advantageous spot as the tournament’s 1 seed. Boston awaits the winner of the one-game playoff between Houston and Tampa. This game would be played at Tropicana Field because the Rays have a better record.

Wild Card teams have been at a severe disadvantage in the MLB postseason ever since the adaptation of the one-game Wild Card in 2012. Before 2012, it was very common to see Wild Card teams run the table and win the World Series.

Having to play a win-or-go-home game and burn your best pitcher before even starting your bracket puts these Wild Card teams at a large disadvantage and gives such a leg up to the 1 seed in each league.

It is highly unlikely that Boston retains the 1 seed in the American League by season’s end. Boston is not even supposed to make the playoffs as 538 gives Boston less than 50% chance of qualifying for the postseason in 2021.

The Yankees were the preseason favorites in the American League and will likely have something to say about there being two teams ahead of them in the division.

Out west, the Oakland Athletics have been one of the hottest teams in baseball after a miserable first week of the season in which they went 0-5. The A’s are currently ahead of the division favorite Astros by half a game.

The Chicago White Sox are leading the AL Central like many experts thought they would. Cleveland is in second place in the division which is not a major surprise. The biggest surprise out of the Central is how awful the Twins are this year. Minnesota is the worst team in the American League at 16-28, even 2 games behind the lowly Detroit Tigers who I make fun of all the time.

AL Bracket per 538 Projections

538 simulations to the end of the season reveal that the Houston Astros are the most likely team to take home the 1 seed in the American League by the end of the season.

This move up the standings involves Houston outpacing the Red Sox, Athletics, White Sox, Yankees, and Rays down the stretch.

As the American League 1 seed, Houston awaits the winner of the Oakland-Tampa Bay one-game playoff held in Tropicana Field.

On the other side of the bracket is the New York Yankees hosting the Chicago White Sox. The Yankees are in the American League 2 seed after overtaking both Boston and Tampa Bay in the second half of the season while holding off the Toronto Blue Jays.

Even though predicted to be only the 2 seed in the American League, the Yankees are still given the best odds of any American league team to win the World Series by 538 simulations.

The Chicago White Sox are the only team in the American League currently leading their division who 538 predicts will still be in the lead at the end of the season. This is less a product of White Sox being dominant and more because the AL Central contains no other legitimate contenders.

AL East

Boston Red Sox 28-18

Best Player: Xander Bogaerts. The Sox shortstop is mashing to begin 2021 – hitting .345 with 10 homers and 30 RBIs through 45 games.

538 Playoff%: 38%. Despite owning the best record in the American League right now, Boston is not even a good bet to make the playoffs this year.

538 Championship%: 2%

Tampa Bay Rays 27-19

Best Player: 27-year-old phenom Tyler Glasnow is one of the league’s best pitchers. This season he is 4-2 with a 2.90 ERA and 12.6 K/9.

538 Playoff%: 69%

538 Championship%: 6%

New York Yankees 26-19

Best Player: Gerrit Cole. Cole is 6-2 with a 1.81 ERA and 12.8 K/9 through 10 starts. The former first-overall pick to the Pirates is in his 2nd year of a 9-year $324 million contract with the Yankees.

538 Playoff%: 77%

538 Championship%: 11%. The Yankees are the 2nd-most likely team to win the World Series behind the Dodgers.

Toronto Blue Jays 23-20

Best Player: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Little Vlad is raking .333 from the plate with 13 homeruns and 36 RBIS through 44 games.

538 Playoff%: 44%

538 Championship%: 3%

Baltimore Orioles 17-27

Best Player: Not much worth mentioning here. The Orioles in one word? Bleh.

538 Playoff%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%

AL Central

Chicago White Sox 26-17

Best Player: Tim Anderson. Shortstop and leadoff hitter Tim Anderson is the best performer on the Sox this year. Anderson is hitting .299 with 5 homeruns, 15 RBIs, 27 runs scored, and 7 steals.

538 Playoff%: 74%

538 Championship%: 6%

Cleveland Indians 23-19

Best Player: Shane Bieber. Following up a 2020 Cy Young season, Bieber is 4-3 with an impressive 3.32 ERA and 13.6 K/9 in 10 starts.

538 Playoff%: 41%

538 Championship%: 2%

Kansas City Royals 20-23

Best Player: Danny Duffy. 32-year-old starting pitcher Danny Duffy is having a resurgent year in 2021. Duffy is 4-3 with an incredible 1.94 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9 in 7 starts.

538 Playoff%: 4%

538 Championship%: <1%

Detroit Tigers 18-26

Best Player: Matt Boyd. With few high-performing players to choose from, you’d have to say 30-year-old starting pitcher Matt Boyd has been the best Detroit has to offer in 2021. Boyd holds just a 2-5 record but with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. That’s pretty solid for a team 8 games under .500 in mid May.

538 Playoff%: <1%

538 Championship%: <1%

Minnesota Twins 16-28

Best Player: Byron Buxton. The 27-year-old outfielder is finally putting it all together in 2021. Buxton is hitting .370 with 9 homeruns, 17 RBIs, and 5 steals in 27 games.

538 Playoff%: 9%

538 Championship%: <1%

AL West

Oakland Athletics 27-19

Best Player: Ramon Laureano. The speedy center fielder Laureano is showcasing a dynamic blend of power and speed – hitting .267 with 11 homeruns and 8 stolen bases to accompany elite outfield defense.

538 Playoff%: 50%

538 Championship%: 3%

Houston Astros 26-19

Best Player: Alex Bregman. The 27-year-old Bregman is once again displaying patience at the dish. Alex is hitting .318 with 5 homeruns, 24 RBIs and an 11.6% BB rate in 39 games.

538 Playoff%: 82%

538 Championship%: 11%. Houston is tied with the New York Yankees as the most likely team in the American League to win the World Series.

Seattle Mariners 21-24

Best Player: Mitch Haniger. Haniger is showcasing the pop in his bat in 2021. Mitch is hitting just .257 but has exploded for 13 dingers and 31 RBIs.

538 Playoff%: 3%

538 Championship%: <1%

Texas Rangers 20-27

Best Player: Adolis Garcia. 28-year-old Rookie Adolis Garcia is killing the baseball early this season – hitting .295 with 14 homers and 37 RBIs.

538 Playoff%: 2%

538 Championship%: <1%

Los Angeles Angels 19-26

Best Player: Shohei Ohtani. Sorry, Mike Trout, but Shohei Ohtani pitches on top of his excellent production at the plate. Through 45 games, Ohtani is hitting .268 with 14 homeruns and 34 RBIs along with 6 stolen bases. From the mound, Ohtani is 4-2 this year with a 3.31 ERA and 11.0 K/9 in 10 starts. Ohtani is the only player this season to throw a pitch over 100 MPH and hit a ball over 450 feet.

538 Playoff%: 7%

538 Championship%: <1%

National League

NL Bracket if Season Ended Today

The San Francisco Giants are off to a shockingly good start in 2021, coming out of nowhere in a stacked division to lead both the Dodgers and Padres through the season’s first seven weeks.

If the Giants don’t look super impressive on paper it’s because they are not. They have won many closely contested games and lack the fire power to blow teams off the field. While many – including 538 – see the Giants being overtaken by both the Dodgers and Padres by September, this tremendous start may be enough to allow San Francisco to back into a National League Wild Card spot.

This would be an incredibly entertaining bracket if the standings remain this way in late September. Awaiting the Giants in the divisional round would be the winner of the Dodgers-Padres Wild Card playoff game.

The Dodgers and Padres have quickly become baseball’s hottest young rivals – drawing more viewership than a Yankees-Red Sox match up.

Forcing two of the best teams in the National League from the same division to play each other in a win-or-go-home playoff would be must-see TV.

On the other side of the bracket are a couple of underwhelming playoff teams – the Cardinals and Mets. The Mets are just a couple of games over .500 but are the beneficiaries of a very weak NL East division.

The Cardinals are in the same position – leading the central with a mediocre record because the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds are all struggling to string wins together.

Should the bracket remain this way – I would argue that the winner of the Dodgers-Padres playoff game would be the World Series favorite. This would be an awesome bracket should it materialize.

NL Bracket per 538 Projections

This bracket is a little more normal looking but still contains some surprises. The most notable change is that the Dodgers have assumed the 1 seed in the National League like we thought they would at the beginning of the season.

This team just has too much talent to stay down for the entire season. The Giants and Padres will both have an incredibly difficult time winning the division as the Dodgers have to be considered the best team in baseball right now.

The Mets hold onto the NL East lead over the surging Braves by a slim margin. Mets fans have been predicting a playoff berth for 2 to 3 years now following a semi-successful rebuild. 2021 may be the year in which the city of New York has two teams making deep playoff runs.

The St. Louis Cardinals hold onto the NL Central division. Of all the division races in baseball, this one is probably the easiest to call right now just because there’s not much talent in the Central and St. Louis clearly looks a couple of steps ahead of the Cubs, Reds, and Brewers.

The San Francisco Giants lose the division lead and even fall out of second place in the East but still have a good enough record to hold onto that fifth spot in the NL and earn a one-game Wild Card playoff in San Diego.

It’s obviously not as cushy a spot as hosting the divisional series against a team who just used their best pitcher to survive their playoff game, but this is as good of a playoff seeding as the Giants could have hoped for going into the 2021 season.

NL East

New York Mets 21-17

Best Player: Jacob deGrom. 2-time Cy Young-winner Jacob deGrom is 3-2 this season with a sterling 0.68 ERA and 14.6 K/9 in 6 starts.

538 Playoff%: 60%

538 Championship%: 5%

Philadelphia Phillies 22-23

Best Player: Zack Wheeler. The steady 31-year-old Zack Wheeler is 3-2 this season with a miniscule 2.52 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9 in 9 starts.

538 Playoff%: 18%

538 Championship%: <1%

Atlanta Braves 21-24

Best Player: Ronald Acuna Jr. Acuna is once again pacing this Braves lineup. The 23-year-old star is hitting .281 with a whopping 15 homeruns and 31 RBIs.

538 Playoff%: 31%. In a season that was supposed to be dominant for Atlanta, this slow start is going to make it difficult for them to even reach the postseason.

538 Championship%: 2%

Miami Marlins 20-24

Best Player: Jesus Aguilar. After being mired in mediocrity for several seasons, Aguilar is back in 2021. The first baseman is hitting .255 with 9 homeruns, 32 RBIs, and 8 doubles along with a team-leading 18 walks drawn.

538 Playoff%: 5%

538 Championship%: <1%

Washington Nationals 18-23

Best Player: Max Scherzer. The 14-year vet is beginning 2021 on a good note – pitching to a 4-2 record with a 2.24 ERA and 12.1 K/9.

538 Playoff%: 22%

538 Championship%: 1%

NL Central

St Louis Cardinals 25-19

Best Player: Nolan Arenado. The former-Rockies third baseman is adjusting well to life on his new team – hitting .291 with 10 dingers, 31 RBIs, and 13 doubles.

538 Playoff%: 51%

538 Championship%: 3%

Chicago Cubs 23-21

Best Player: Kris Bryant. The 29-year-old 3B/OF is raking to begin this season. Bryant is hitting .307 with 10 homers and 28 RBIs in 42 games of work.

538 Playoff%: 38%

538 Championship%: 3%

Milwaukee Brewers 21-23

Best Player: Brandon Woodruff. The 28-year-old Woodruff is breaking out with a 2-2 record, a sparkling 1.58 ERA, and a K/9 of 10.3 in 9 starts.

538 Playoff%: 32%

538 Championship%: 2%

Cincinnati Reds 20-23

Best Player: Nick Castellanos. Casty is having a career age-29 season. His batting average is a career-high .346 with 11 homers and 27 RBIs in 40 games.

538 Playoff%: 14%

538 Championship%: <1%

Pittsburgh Pirates 18-26

Best Player: Hmm, nothing came up when I searched “good Pirates players”.

538 Playoff%: <1%. This season seems to be another one wasted in Pittsburgh.

538 Championship%: <1%

NL West

San Francisco Giants 28-17

Best Player: Buster Posey. Posey will not stop hitting, even in his age-34 season. The long-time vet is raking to a tune of .355 with 9 homers and 17 RBIs in 30 games.

538 Playoff%: 40%

538 Championship%: 1%

San Diego Padres 28-17

Best Player: Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis has played in just 29 games due to injury and illness but is showcasing all 5 tools with a .290 batting average, 11 homeruns, 20 RBIs, and a National League-leading 10 stolen bases in 12 attempts.

538 Playoff%: 89%

538 Championship%: 11%

Los Angeles Dodgers 27-18

Best Player: Trevor Bauer. In his first season with LA, Bauer is following up his 2020 Cy Young campaign with a 5-2/1.98/12.44 line – in the mix for back-to-back Cy Youngs.

538 Playoff%: 97%

538 Championship%: 25%

Arizona Diamondbacks 18-28

Best Player: Nobody stands out on this boring, vanilla team.

538 Playoff%: 2% Good luck making the playoffs when you’re in a division with both the Dodgers and Padres plus the Giants are picking 2021 to break out.

538 Championship%: <1%

Colorado Rockies 16-29

Best Player: The words “good players” and “Colorado Rockies” don’t really go together.

538 Playoff%: <1%. Colorado is the worst team in the MLB and yet they play in the most competitive division in the league – not a good situation.

538 Championship%: <1%