It’s back! Wagerbop’s annual MLB Playoffs Betting Guide! This 2021 version is packed with more money-making wisdom and postseason baseball truth than ever before. Are the Giants a good pick on the road? Should we take overs or under? Who should I bet in a Game 7?
This is the most comprehensive MLB Playoffs betting guide on the internet and you, my friend, are receiving this gem for free. You will not find all of this information in one place anywhere else. We checked.
Playoff baseball is a different beast. It is imperative that informed decisions are made. All data is from the past 10 postseasons, which takes us back to the 2011 season. 10 years worth of data is a large enough sample size to allow for natural regression but not too large to where trends get swallowed up and go undetected.
The majority of data in this piece comes from Killersports‘ SDQL feature and Stathead‘s MLB research tools.
MLB Playoff Scenarios
The MLB regular season is entering its final weekend and the playoff picture is nearly set in the National League with the Wild Card race still fully on in the American League.
National League
In the NL West, San Francisco leads Los Angeles by 2 games with 3 to play. San Fran finishes up the regular season with a 3-game home, weekend series with San Diego. The Dodgers finish at home as well against a tough Milwaukee team.
3 of the 5 playoff spots in the National League are locked in. We know that the Milwaukee Brewers will be the 2 seed, the Braves the 3 seed, and the Cardinals the 5 seed.
The Giants and Dodgers are still fighting for control of the West. The winner will be the league’s 1 seed and receive home-field advantage throughout the entire postseason while the loser will be forced to host a 1-game playoff versus St Louis.
With a 2-game lead entering the final weekend, the Giants are large favorites to win the division. This bracket is what the National League postseason will look like should the Giants hold on and win the West.
American League
The Rays have the East locked up while the White Sox own the Central and Houston rules the West. Each division is decided in the American League but the Wild Card chase is wide open.
The Yankees hold a 2-game lead as the top Wild Card while 3 teams are within striking distance entering the final weekend.
The Mariners attempt to end the longest postseason drought in major pro sports by surpassing 2 teams in the final weekend to grab an American League Wild Card bid.
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) October 1, 2021
Checking for Home-Field Advantage in the MLB Playoffs
Does home field matter in the MLB playoffs? Probably … it has to matter, right?
It is important we always make informed decisions when wagering our hard-earned money. Let’s check the numbers and derive a definitive answer.
Keep in mind that home-field advantage did not exist during the 2020 MLB postseason as there was a “playoff bubble” in which all games were played on neutral fields. The 2020 postseason will be excluded from the search results.
Home Teams on the Moneyline and Runline
I’ll start by exploring home winning percentages in the MLB playoffs. This first table shows the moneyline and runline win rates along with the average lines for home playoff teams over the past 10 seasons.
| Season | ML % | Avg ML | ML Profit | RL % | Avg RL | RL Profit |
| 2020* | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 45.9% | -133 | -$692 | 37.8% | +112 | -$900 |
| 2018 | 51.5% | -140 | -$361 | 42.4% | +113 | -$440 |
| 2017 | 71.1% | -138 | $1,418 | 65.8% | +122 | $1,845 |
| 2016 | 48.6% | -127 | -$475 | 48.6% | +108 | $154 |
| 2015 | 52.8% | -129 | -$165 | 51.4% | +121 | $485 |
| 2014 | 56.2% | -130 | -$176 | 40.6% | +126 | -$343 |
| 2013 | 60.5% | -120 | $619 | 60.5% | +115 | $1,328 |
| 2012 | 48.6% | -130 | -$693 | 43.2% | +128 | $9 |
| 2011 | 60.5% | -137 | $352 | 50.0% | +139 | $702 |
| Total | 55.2% | -132 | -$173 | 49.2% | +120 | $2,840 |
The famed 52.4% break-even point is for spreads, not moneylines and runlines. Even with a 55.2% winning percentage on the moneyline, home teams are not favorable bets because they are given average odds of (-132).
49.2% is extremely profitable on the runline because home teams are given (+120) odds.
The moneyline is -EV, but the runline is hot for home playoff teams over the past 10 years. These numbers fluctuate quite a bit year-to-year, but are very sturdy in the long term.
Road Teams on the Moneyline and Runline
| Season | ML % | Avg ML | ML Profit | RL % | Avg RL | RL Profit |
| 2020* | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 54.1% | +119 | $490 | 62.2% | -132 | $600 |
| 2018 | 48.5% | +128 | $198 | 57.6% | -133 | $230 |
| 2017 | 28.9% | +126 | -$1,534 | 34.2% | -143 | -$2,245 |
| 2016 | 51.4% | +115 | $324 | 51.4% | -121 | -$367 |
| 2015 | 47.2% | +118 | -$27 | 48.6% | -134 | -$707 |
| 2014 | 43.8% | +119 | -$23 | 59.4% | -140 | $177 |
| 2013 | 39.5% | +110 | -$786 | 39.5% | -128 | -$1,552 |
| 2012 | 51.4% | +119 | $461 | 56.8% | -145 | -$201 |
| 2011 | 39.5% | +126 | -$507 | 51.4% | -150 | -$723 |
| Total | 44.8% | +120 | -$1,404 | 50.9% | -136 | -$4,788 |
We should avoid betting road teams blindly in the MLB Playoffs. Over the past 10 postseasons, road teams have failed to turn profits on the moneyline or runline.
MLB Playoffs: Favorites vs Underdogs
This first table displays how favorites have fared both on the moneyline and the runline over the past 10 MLB postseasons.
| Season | ML % | Avg ML | ML Profit | RL % | Avg RL | RL Profit |
| 2020 | 65.4% | -152 | $721 | 55.8% | +125 | $1,395 |
| 2019 | 56.8% | -163 | -$298 | 48.6% | +126 | $250 |
| 2018 | 51.5% | -151 | -$571 | 36.4% | +131 | -$580 |
| 2017 | 69.4% | -148 | $1,097 | 63.9% | +125 | $1,725 |
| 2016 | 60.0% | -147 | $150 | 37.1% | +140 | -$302 |
| 2015 | 51.4% | -145 | -$636 | 48.6% | +145 | $642 |
| 2014 | 43.8% | -137 | -$1,191 | 28.1% | +152 | -$865 |
| 2013 | 55.9% | -133 | $16 | 44.1% | +156 | $468 |
| 2012 | 41.7% | -141 | -$1,415 | 36.1% | +142 | -$386 |
| 2011 | 60.0% | -143 | $97 | 41.2% | +150 | $89 |
| Total | 56.2% | -147 | -$2,030 | 44.8% | +138 | $2,436 |
Favorites have enjoyed a couple of very successful postseasons but have generally been terrible bets over the past decade. The runline is a nice option if you get the urge to back favorites. Note that over half of that profit came during the 2020 postseason.
Because favorites have performed so poorly on the moneyline, we can expect the numbers to look favorable for underdogs over this same timespan.
Underdogs on the Moneyline and Runline
This table shows the moneyline and runline results for underdogs over the past 10 MLB postseasons.
| Season | ML % | Avg ML | ML Profit | RL % | Avg RL | RL Profit |
| 2020 | 34.6% | +140 | -$929 | 45.1% | -149 | -$1,800 |
| 2019 | 43.2% | +149 | $96 | 51.4% | -146 | -$550 |
| 2018 | 48.5% | +140 | $408 | 63.6% | -151 | $370 |
| 2017 | 30.6% | +136 | -$1,203 | 36.1% | -146 | -$2,125 |
| 2016 | 40.0% | +136 | -$301 | 62.9% | -153 | $89 |
| 2015 | 48.6% | +134 | $444 | 51.4% | -157 | -$864 |
| 2014 | 56.2% | +127 | $992 | 71.9% | -166 | $699 |
| 2013 | 44.1% | +123 | -$163 | 55.9% | -169 | -$678 |
| 2012 | 58.3% | +130 | $1,188 | 63.9% | -158 | $194 |
| 2011 | 40.0% | +133 | -$242 | 60.6% | -160 | -$93 |
| Total | 43.8% | +135 | $290 | 55.5% | -155 | -$4,758 |
Postseason underdogs are slightly up albeit inconsistent on the moneyline. We saw earlier that home teams are great runline bets in the MLB postseason. Now we’ve established the profitability of underdogs. Let’s put the two together and see what materializes.
MLB Playoffs: Betting Home Underdogs
When we looked at home vs road profits, home teams were -EV on the moneyline but extremely hot on the runline. When we looked at favorite vs dog, dogs were far better. It is only logical to see what the numbers look like when we combine home/road and fave/dog filters.
Results from 2020 will be excluded to preserve the integrity of home/road data.
| Season | ML | Avg ML | ML Profit | RL | Avg RL | RL Profit |
| 2020* | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 4-8 | +139 | -$229 | 4-8 | -132 | -$655 |
| 2018 | 4-4 | +118 | $85 | 5-3 | -147 | $40 |
| 2017 | 5-4 | +111 | $140 | 5-4 | -115 | $30 |
| 2016 | 5-9 | +121 | -$338 | 9-5 | -146 | $194 |
| 2015 | 6-5 | +120 | $207 | 6-5 | -143 | -$106 |
| 2014 | 6-2 | +110 | $478 | 6-2 | -159 | $247 |
| 2013 | 7-5 | +111 | $273 | 9-3 | -157 | $449 |
| 2012 | 4-2 | +127 | $291 | 4-2 | -140 | $135 |
| 2011 | 3-2 | +110 | $115 | 4-1 | -152 | $257 |
| Total | 44-41 (51.8%) | +119 | $1,022 | 52-33 (61.2%) | -143 | $591 |
These ML and RL records for home dogs are both profitable. While these win rates won’t make you rich overnight, betting home dogs in the MLB postseason is a nice supplementary +EV play.
MLB Playoffs: Betting the Over/Under Run Total
Runlines and moneylines are not the only way to make money betting playoff baseball. The run total can also be a lucrative bet. The largest incentive for betting the total in lieu of the runline/moneyline is not having to pick who will win the game. With totals, you simply predict how the game will flow, which is easier for some to predict than winners and losers.
The following table shows how often the over and under have hit over the past 10 MLB postseasons.
| Postseason | Over % | Over Profit | Under % | Under Profit | Avg Total |
| 2020 | 47.2% | -$660 | 52.8% | $95 | 8.2 |
| 2019 | 52.8% | -$6 | 47.2% | -$365 | 7.8 |
| 2018 | 45.2% | -$411 | 54.8% | $225 | 7.9 |
| 2017 | 48.6% | -$276 | 51.4% | -$50 | 7.8 |
| 2016 | 42.4% | -$753 | 57.6% | $360 | 7.4 |
| 2015 | 61.8% | $688 | 38.2% | -$1,046 | 7.3 |
| 2014 | 50.0% | -$130 | 50.0% | -$135 | 6.9 |
| 2013 | 57.1% | $340 | 42.9% | -$545 | 6.9 |
| 2012 | 52.8% | $100 | 47.2% | -$480 | 7.3 |
| 2011 | 58.8% | $465 | 41.2% | -$815 | 8.1 |
| Total | 51.5% | -$643 | 48.5% | -$2,756 | 7.6 |
There is no advantage to be gained just from betting the total blindly. Each side is below the magic number of 52.4%.
MLB Playoffs: Team-By-Team Records
Some MLB teams always seem to win in the playoffs while others whither in the limelight and disappoint on an annual basis. I want to identify and distinguish these teams from one another.
This table contains data for each MLB team that is still playoff eligible. The corresponding numbers are each teams’ ML and RL playoff records and profits since the 2011 postseason.
The Dodgers have played 84 playoff games over the past 10 years while the White Sox only played in 3 games last season and the Mariners haven’t made the postseason since 2001.
| Team | # of Games | ML Record (Profits) | RL Record (Profits) |
| Astros | 63 | 36-27 ($305) | 33-29 (-$390) |
| Blue Jays | 22 | 10-12 (-$704) | 9-13 (-$332) |
| Braves | 26 | 12-14 (-$99) | 14-12 ($35) |
| Brewers | 24 | 11-13 (-$132) | 13-11 ($79) |
| Cardinals | 73 | 36-37 ($358) | 34-38 (-$1,300) |
| Dodgers | 84 | 46-38 (-$429) | 37-47 (-$691) |
| Giants | 38 | 25-13 ($1,516) | 27-11 ($2,061) |
| Mariners | — | — | — |
| Rays | 35 | 17-18 ($79) | 16-19 (-$413) |
| Red Sox | 37 | 23-14 ($1,080) | 23-14 ($913) |
| White Sox | 3 | 1-2 (-$107) | 1-2 (-$150) |
| Yankees | 49 | 23-26 (-$550) | 27-20 ($570) |
There is plenty to look at in this table. I’ll highlight a few quick points:
- Although the Braves have appeared in many postseason games over the past decade, they are not profitable on the moneyline and have eked out a trivial profit on the runline.
- The Dodgers have played in the most playoff games of any of these teams this decade but are -EV bets on both the moneyline and runline.
- The Giants are the most profitable postseason MLB team of the past decade. Fueled by their run of 3 World Series championships in 5 years, San Fran is up over $1,500 on the moneyline and over $2,000 on the runline.
- The Red Sox are the 2nd-most profitable postseason bets over the past decade – with profits of $1,080 on the moneyline and $913 on the runline.
MLB Playoffs: Team-By-Team HOME Records
I want to identify the teams with a strong home-field advantage. Certain clubs are deadly in front of their home crowds, especially in the postseason.
Home-field advantages did not exist during the 2020 MLB playoffs so this season will be excluded from the data.
| Team | # of Games | ML Record (Profits) | RL Record (Profits) |
| Astros | 26 | 16-10 ($89) | 13-13 ($427) |
| Blue Jays | 11 | 6-5 (-$302) | 5-6 ($100) |
| Braves | 8 | 3-5 (-$254) | 3-5 (-$358) |
| Brewers | 12 | 8-4 ($368) | 7-5 ($317) |
| Cardinals | 33 | 20-13 ($680) | 17-15 ($580) |
| Dodgers | 34 | 20-14 (-$7) | 15-19 (-$15) |
| Giants | 18 | 12-6 ($523) | 12-6 ($1,144) |
| Mariners | — | — | — |
| Rays | 6 | 3-3 (-$407) | 3-3 (-$30) |
| Red Sox | 17 | 11-6 ($402) | 10-7 ($642) |
| White Sox | — | — | — |
| Yankees | 23 | 13-10 ($70) | 11-10 ($236) |
Allow me to highlight a few quick points from this table, as well:
- The Astros perform very well at home in the playoffs. Hmm … it’s almost like they possess some sort of unfair advantage when at home.
- The Cardinals are nearly unbeatable in St Louis. Moneyline and runline, these guys kill it at home in October.
- The Dodgers win a lot of home playoff games but are held back by extremely short lines. It’s nearly impossible to turn any sort of substantial profit when you need to win 80% of your games just to break even.
- The Giants are the most profitable MLB team to bet in home playoff games. San Fran is right behind St Louis in moneyline profits at home but has a massive lead over any other team in home runline playoff profits since 2011.
- The Brewers aren’t bad bets in home playoff games. The profits are humble for Milwaukee because the volume isn’t there.
MLB Playoffs: Team-By-Team ROAD Records
Here are each team’s recent road playoff numbers as well, again since 2011.
Home-field advantages did not exist during the 2020 MLB playoffs so this season will be excluded from the data.
| Team | # of Games | ML Record (Profits) | RL Record (Profits) |
| Astros | 24 | 12-12 (-$266) | 11-12 (-$530) |
| Blue Jays | 9 | 4-5 (-$202) | 4-5 (-$127) |
| Braves | 6 | 1-5 (-$400) | 3-3 (-$72) |
| Brewers | 10 | 3-7 (-$300) | 6-4 (-$33) |
| Cardinals | 37 | 15-22 (-$270) | 16-21 (-$1,665) |
| Dodgers | 32 | 13-19 (-$912) | 11-21 (-$1,181) |
| Giants | 20 | 13-7 ($993) | 15-5 ($917) |
| Mariners | — | — | — |
| Rays | 9 | 3-6 (-$235) | 3-6 (-$418) |
| Red Sox | 20 | 12-8 ($678) | 13-7 ($271) |
| White Sox | — | — | — |
| Yankees | 19 | 6-13 (-$645) | 13-6 ($454) |
MLB Playoffs – Games After Blowing Lead
This next system has been bleeding bookies dry since 2011. Teams who blew a lead in a playoff game and lost are likely to come back the next game determined to get a win.
Take a look at what teams have done in playoff games after blowing a lead they held for at least five innings and losing the game prior:
| Postseason | ML Record | ML Profit |
| 2020 | 2-2 | $30 |
| 2019 | 3-2 | $115 |
| 2018 | — | — |
| 2017 | 1-0 | $100 |
| 2016 | 1-0 | $100 |
| 2015 | 2-1 | $57 |
| 2014 | 1-0 | $120 |
| 2013 | 0-1 | -$135 |
| 2012 | 2-0 | $200 |
| 2011 | 3-0 | $370 |
| Total | 15-6 | $957 |
The sample size is small, but that sample has produced amazing results – going 15-6 (71.4%) with a staggering 36.5% ROI since 2011.
MLB Playoffs – Home Teams in Games 6 & 7
To the average fan, high-pressure games late in a series can be seemingly unpredictable. Sharp bettors realize that strong trends exist in these games which can be capitalized on. While others are betting with their hearts, we know better and make picks with our brains.
The sample size is larger on this one, amassing 31 plays since the 2011 playoffs. The results of betting on home teams in games 6 or 7 of MLB playoff series are shown below:
| Postseason | ML Record | ML Profit |
| 2020 | 4-1 | $265 |
| 2019 | 1-2 | -$210 |
| 2018 | 1-1 | $0 |
| 2017 | 5-1 | $375 |
| 2016 | 1-2 | -$82 |
| 2015 | 1-0 | $125 |
| 2014 | 1-1 | -$40 |
| 2013 | 3-0 | $317 |
| 2012 | 2-0 | $200 |
| 2011 | 3-1 | $173 |
| Total | 22-9 | $1,123 |
This system wins big! The losing years are pocket change in comparison to the monster winning years.
This system has sustained an incredible 28.3% ROI since 2011. That type of return over a 10-year interval means we must be onto something here.
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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