Deciding when to foray into NFL playoff talk is more art than science. Make the leap too early and you’re bound to be wrong. Upload postseason prediction content too late and your piece will get drowned out by the big boys with more traffic on their sites.
With some of the NFL’s big boys struggling – think Chiefs, Steelers, Seahawks – I think it’s high time to explore some postseason odds, scenarios, and key matchups with playoff implications.
Entering Week 9 of the 2021 NFL season, the divide between contenders and pretenders is widening. Top teams can already begin looking forward to the postseason. 6-1 teams make the playoffs at an 85% rate. 7-1 teams are a 95% lock.
Even 6-2 teams wind up making the postseason over 4 out of 5 times (81%).
FiveThirtyEight provides a wealth of NFL playoff odds information and is cited often in this piece. Their NFL Prediction tools are fun to play around with. For each NFL team, I list the % chance that FiveThirtyEight gives of that team reaching the 2021 postseason as well as their Super Bowl equity.
Several factors determine a team’s shot of qualifying for postseason football – including current record, remaining strength of schedule, health of star players, and strength of division.
I also cite Oddshark often. Their suite of query tools and team reports make finding betting trends a breeze for both casual and hardcore NFL observers. All 32 teams are still mathematically alive (yes, even the 0-8 Lions) and will be getting a breakdown.
NFL Using Same Expanded Playoffs as Last Season
The NFL expanded the playoffs from 12 teams to 14 beginning in the 2020 season. This is the first expansion of the NFL postseason since the field changed from 10 to 12 in 1990.
Division winners will receive the 1-4 seeds in their conference based upon their regular season record. Seeds 5-7 will belong to the Wild Cards, of which there are now 3 in each conference.
It always looks bad for the NFL when teams with losing records sneak into the postseason. Those worried that an expanded postseason will allow even more teams with losing records into the field will be pleased to know that this is not the case. NBC Sports went back and found that if this current system had been implemented since 1990 – we would have a smaller percentage of losing teams in the playoffs as well as a smaller number of 10-win snubs, which also never goes over well.
Remember in 2008 when the Patriots were 11-5 and missed the playoffs while the 8-8 Chargers got to go? Yeah, that won’t happen now with the current system.
An added benefit of the 14-team field is that each conference now has just one bye. This will create more meaningful games among top teams late in the regular season. Gone are the days of 13-0 and 14-0 teams resting starters late in the season because they already have the 2-seed clinched.
Using FiveThirtyEight‘s season predictions, we can put together the potential 2021 NFL playoff bracket for amusement and speculation. Here it is!
Time for a post-Week 8 NFL breakdown!
AFC East
Buffalo Bills 5-2 
Hot Betting Trends: Buffalo is red hot right now – winning 5 of their past 6 games and given the best odds to win the Super Bowl on FiveThirtyEight.
The Bills score the most points per game in the NFL (32.7) while allowing the fewest points per game (15.6). Even non-experts can deduce this is a winning combination.
538 Playoff %: 97%
538 Super Bowl%: 16%. The highest Super Bowl odds in the entire NFL!
Week 9 Matchup/Line: BUF (-14.5) @ JAX (1-6)
New England Patriots 4-4 
Hot Betting Trends: Mac Jones has been impressive of late, leading the Pats up and down the field with ease and causing the total to go over in 4 of New England’s past 5 games.
On the road, New England tends to control the clock and play in low-scoring affairs. The total has gone under in 5 of the past 7 Patriots road games.
The Pats have Carolina this week – a team which has beaten them ATS in each of their past 5 meetings.
538 Playoff %: 46%
538 Super Bowl%: 1%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: NE (-4) @ CAR (4-4)
New York Jets 2-5
Hot Betting Trends: The total has gone over in 4 of the Jets past 5 games.
ATS, it is smart to bet against New York right now as the Jets are 2-5 ATS as well as 2-5 SU in 2021-22. The Jets are 0-5 both ATS and SU in their past 5 road games.
538 Playoff %: 2%
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: NYJ (+10.5) @ IND (3-5)
Miami Dolphins 1-7
Hot Betting Trends: The Dolphins have defended their home field honorably – posting a 9-4 ATS record in their past 13 home games. The over has hit in 4 of Miami’s past 6 contests.
This week, Miami must play Houston – a team with which they have struggled recently. Miami is 1-8 SU in their last 9 games versus the Texans.
538 Playoff %: 1%
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: HOU (1-7) @ MIA (-6.5)
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 6-1
Hot Betting Trends: The Cowboys lead the NFL in yards gained per game (454.9) and are 3rd in points scored per game (32.1). Expect Dallas to light up the scoreboard – even against tough defenses.
Dallas plays exceptionally well at home, covering the spread in each of their past 5 home games.
538 Playoff %: 98%
538 Super Bowl%: 12%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: DEN (4-4) @ DAL (-10)
Philadelphia Eagles 3-5
Hot Betting Trends: Be it the weather, jet lag, or game planning – the under has hit in 14 of Philly’s last 18 home games.
The Eagles put up plenty of points – ranking 12th in the league with 25.4 points scored per game.
Perhaps the key to the consistent unders is the fact that Philly takes good care of the ball. The Eagles have 7 giveaways in their first 8 games – the 7th-fewest in football. No short fields for the opponents means fewer points scored.
538 Playoff %: 22%
538 Super Bowl%: .1%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: LAC (4-3) @ PHI (+1.5)
Washington Re*****s (Football Team) 2-6
Hot Betting Trends: The Re*****s are the worst ATS team in football this season. WFT has covered just 1 of their 8 spreads this season for a 12.5% win rate.
Washington allows the 6th-most points per game on defense (28.4) while only scoring 19.5 per game (9th lowest).
538 Playoff %: 4%
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: BYE WEEK
New York Giants 2-6
Hot Betting Trends: The Giants can’t seem to score at home – playing in unders 7 of their past 8 home games.
Overall, the under has hit in 11 of the past 15 Giants games – dating back to last season.
New York ranks 25th in the league in points scored per game (19.5) while allowing 25.0 points per game (23rd-lowest in football).
538 Playoff %: 3%
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: LV ( 5-2) @ NYG (+3)
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals 7-1
Hot Betting Trends: The Cardinals are not only winning SU in 2021-22 but have covered the spread in 5 of their past 6 games.
Arizona is putting up the 4th-most points per game in the league (30.8) while allowing the 3rd-fewest points per game (17.3). This explains the 7-1 record in the desert.
538 Playoff %: 97%
538 Super Bowl%: 8%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: ARI (-2.5) @ SF (3-4)
Los Angeles Rams 7-1
Hot Betting Trends: Vegas seems to have the Rams figured out as LA is an even 4-4 ATS this season.
Prolific offense from Matthew Stafford and Co. have caused the over to be 5-2-1 in the Rams first 8 games – a 71.4% win rate.
538 Playoff %: 97%
538 Super Bowl%: 13%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: TEN (6-2) @ LAR (-8)
San Francisco 49ers 3-4
Hot Betting Trends: San Francisco has been awful ATS this season – posting a 2-5 record for a 28.6% win rate.
The over has hit in 5 of the 49ers past 7 home games. This is in large part due to a defense which has allowed the 11th-most points in football per game (24.4).
538 Playoff %: 29%
538 Super Bowl%: .5%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: ARI (7-1) @ SF (+2.5)
Seattle Seahawks 3-5
Hot Betting Trends: The Seahawks finish under the Vegas total more than any other team in 2021-22. Seattle is 6-1-1 on the under this season for an 85.7% win rate on a bet that only need a 52.4% rate to break even.
538 Playoff %: 24%
538 Super Bowl%: .6%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: BYE WEEK
AFC West
Las Vegas Raiders 5-2 
Hot Betting Trends: The Vegas Raiders are good at doing something that is very difficult in the NFL – winning road football games.
Las Vegas is 4-1 SU in their past 5 road games – beating teams like the Broncos and Steelers.
Derek Carr loves to sling the ball around as the Raiders are 2nd in the NFL with 307.9 passing yards per game (2nd behind only Tom Brady and the Bucs).
538 Playoff %: 65%
538 Super Bowl%: 2%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: LV (-3) @ NYG (2-6)
Los Angeles Chargers 4-3
Hot Betting Trends: The Chargers play very well away from balmy Los Angeles – winning ATS in 4 of their past 5 road games.
The under is hitting in Chargers games a lot this season as 5 0f their 7 games have finished under the Vegas total for a win rate of 71.4% in a bet that needs just a 52.4% success rate to break even.
538 Playoff %: 67%
538 Super Bowl%: 3%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: LAC (-1.5) @ PHI (3-5)
Kansas City Chiefs 4-4
Hot Betting Trends: Is it time to admit the Chiefs are no longer the class of the NFL? Kansas City is a dismal 5-15 ATS in their past 20 games dating back to last season.
The Chiefs still rock a solid 17-4 SU home record in their last 21 at Arrowhead, but have beaten only the Browns and Giants at home this year while losing to the Chargers and Bills.
538 Playoff %: 51%
538 Super Bowl%: 2%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: GB (7-1) @ KC (-7). This line began at KC (-2.5) but jumped to (-7) once Aaron Rodgers was ruled out for Green Bay.
Denver Broncos 4-4
Hot Betting Trends: Denver might the Mile High City but the game totals are low low low. The Broncos have played under the Vegas total in 6 of their 8 games this season.
Spanning back a couple of decades, it can be noted that the total has gone over in 7 of the past 8 Broncos-Cowboys matchups.
538 Playoff %: 22%
538 Super Bowl%: .3%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: DEN (+10) @ DAL (6-1)
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 5-2
Hot Betting Trends: The Ravens are hot right now. Baltimore is winners in 5 of their past 6 games.
While the Ravens win games, they don’t do so convincingly – posting a subpar ATS win rate of 3-4 this season.
The Ravens’ MO on offense has been to pound the running game – especially with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. The Ravens rank 3rd in the NFL in rush yards per game (149.4).
This is the 4th-straight season in which Baltimore has been a top-3 rushing team in the league.
538 Playoff %: 81%
538 Super Bowl%: 6%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: MIN (3-4) @ BAL (-6)
Cincinnati Bengals 5-3
Hot Betting Trends: The Bengals have played some high-scoring games lately against their in-state rival Cleveland.
The score has gone over the Vegas total in 6 of the past 7 Bengals-Browns matchups. The over has hit of the past 5 times the game is played in Cincinnati – as it is this Sunday.
538 Playoff %: 62%
538 Super Bowl%: 2%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: CLE (4-4) @ CIN (-2.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers 4-3
Hot Betting Trends: Steel City might as well be named “Under City” this year. Games involving Pittsburgh are 5-1-1 on the under in 2021-22 for an 83.3% win rate.
All these unders are due to a solid defense which ranks 7th in points allowed per game (20.3) and a paltry offense which ranks in the bottom third of the league with 18.9 points scored per game.
Look for the oddsmakers to continue to plummet the total in Steelers games until the scores start getting higher.
538 Playoff %: 40%
538 Super Bowl%: 1%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: CHI (3-5) @ PIT (-6.5)
Cleveland Browns 4-4
Hot Betting Trends: The Browns have played some high-scoring games lately against their in-state rival Cincinnati.
The score has gone over the Vegas total in 6 of the past 7 Bengals-Browns matchups. The over has hit of the past 5 times the game is played in Cincinnati – as it is this Sunday.
538 Playoff %: 33%
538 Super Bowl%: .9%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: CLE (+2.5) @ CIN (5-3)
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 7-1 
Hot Betting Trends: The Packers are on a 7-game win streak after dropping their first game of the season. Green Bay is also on a 7-game ATS win streak.
Green Bay has a relatively low average margin of victory this year (3.1). This is the 2nd-lowest margin of any team with at least 5 wins.
Pin the skewed average on the Packers 38-3 Week 1 thrashing they took at the hands of New Orleans.
538 Playoff %: 98%
538 Super Bowl%: 10%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: GB (+7) @ KC (4-4). This line began at GB (+2.5) but jumped to (+7) once Aaron Rodgers was ruled out for Green Bay.
Minnesota Vikings 3-4
Hot Betting Trends: The Vikings defense fares much better at home as the team has been involved in overs each of their past 5 road games.
Minnesota has moved the ball very efficiently this season – posting top-10 ranks in total offensive yards gained (394.7 per game), passing yards (270.7 per game), and rushing yards (124.0 per game).
538 Playoff %: 27%
538 Super Bowl%: .5%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: MIN (+6) @ BAL (5-2)
Chicago Bears 3-5
Hot Betting Trends: The Bears have played under the Vegas total in 6 of their last 7 games. Their opponent this weekend – Pittsburgh – has also played under the total in 5 of their last 7. So does this mean definitely bet the over?
538 Playoff %: 6%
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: CHI (+6.5) @ PIT (4-3)
Detroit Lions 0-8
Hot Betting Trends: Here’s a cute betting trend – the Lions have lost their last 12 football games. This franchise’s last win came on December 6, 2020 against Chicago.
Detroit does manage to outplay Vegas expectations – posting a 2-3 ATS record in their last 5. The under has hit in 4 of the past 5 Lions games.
538 Playoff %: <.1%
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%. Although the Lions are still mathematically alive, I seriously doubt any computer simulations have Detroit winning a Super Bowl. <.1% is a nice of way of saying “ZERO CHANCE!”.
Week 9 Matchup/Line: BYE WEEK
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-2 
Hot Betting Trends: The Bucs wasted no time getting hot in Tom Brady’s 2nd year – gaining the 2nd-most yards per game (423.1) and scoring the 2nd-most points in the league (32.5 per game).
Rush defense has been Tampa’s calling card of late – allowing the fewest rush yards per game (78.0) in the NFL.
538 Playoff %: 98%
538 Super Bowl%: 12%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: BYE WEEK
New Orleans Saints 5-2 
Hot Betting Trends: The under tends to hit a lot when division rivals Atlanta and New Orleans meet up. The under is 5-0 in the past 5 matchups between the two.
New Orleans typically gets the better of Atlanta – as the Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus the Falcons.
538 Playoff %: 76%
538 Super Bowl%: 1%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: ATL (3-4) @ NO (-6)
Carolina Panthers 4-4
Hot Betting Trends: The Panthers have played a lot of low-scoring games lately, finishing under the Vegas total in 9 of their past 11 games – dating back to last season.
Something has to give this Sunday as the Patriots have been involved in overs 4 of their past 5 games.
Carolina has handled the Patriots on the scoreboard very well of late – winning ATS in each of their past 5 meetings.
538 Playoff %: 13%
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: NE (4-4) @ CAR (+4)
Atlanta Falcons 3-4
Hot Betting Trends: The under tends to hit a lot when division rivals Atlanta and New Orleans meet up. The under is 5-0 in the past 5 matchups between the two.
New Orleans typically gets the better of Atlanta – as the Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games versus the Saints.
538 Playoff %: 8%
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: ATL (+6) @ NO (5-2)
AFC South
Tennessee Titans 6-2
Hot Betting Trends: The Titans have covered in 6 of their last 7 games.
When leaving the friendly confines of Nashville, Tennessee tends to get involved in wild affairs – playing over the total in each of their last 5 road games.
538 Playoff %: 99%
538 Super Bowl%: 7%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: TEN (+8) @ LAR (7-1)
Indianapolis Colts 3-5
Hot Betting Trends: The Colts may not be winning on the scoreboard but they are big winners in Vegas – posting an ATS victory in 4 of their past 5 contests.
The over is also hot in Colts games, winning in 4 of the past 5 games.
538 Playoff %: 34%
538 Super Bowl%: .8%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: NYJ (2-5) @ IND (-10.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-6
Hot Betting Trends: The Jags can’t score – averaging 17.6 points per game (6th lowest in the NFL).
As a result the under has hit in 5 of Jacksonville’s past 6 games.
538 Playoff %: .2%
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: BUF (5-2) @ JAX (+14.5)
Houston Texans 1-7
Hot Betting Trends: The scores tend to be low when Houston sets out on a road trip – playing under the Vegas total in 5 of their past 6 road games.
This trend directly conflicts with another ongoing trend, however, as the over has hit in 4 of the past 6 Dolphins games. Something has to give on Sunday.
538 Playoff %: .3%
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 9 Matchup/Line: HOU (+6.5) @ MIA (1-7)
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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