EPL Matchday 11: Handicapping a Pair of Desperate Clubs on Monday

Sportsbooks do not always nail the official format of English soccer schedules, with the host club listed above or to the left “vs” next to the visitors on the right.

Bettors immersed in the Premier League notice right away who is playing at home anyway, though, based on the odds.

But for casual gamblers whose eyes are still settling back into their sockets, trust me…Huddersfield is playing at home on Monday. That is a big reason why the last-place club is favored to thrash Fulham. It is just not the only reason.

It is not as if the odds are particularly tight, either. The Terriers’ moneyline to win in 90 minutes plus stoppage is just (+127), meaning that house handicappers think Huddersfield has almost a 50% chance to win the match. Underdog Fulham is presently holding at (+226) with an almost-identical “draw” line of (+233).

Over/Under bets are equal (-110) in each market with a conservative line of (2 ½) total goals.

Though this event occurring on a Monday as a stand-alone TV broadcast could feel like a downer to soccer fans whose interest does not go far beyond Ronaldo, Messi, and Manchester United, it is really an important meeting for 2 reasons.

First, each club must strive desperately to steer clear of relegation out of the Premier League for the 2019-20 season. Huddersfield especially looks to be in jeopardy of losing their status, at least if the miserable performances of 2018-19 continue.

Second – and of intense interest to bettors – there is some question as to how dangerous-or-not Fulham can be. That is to say that lately, the Cottagers have themselves appeared to be easy foil for almost everyone in the EPL. Will they ever be a worthy underdog bet again?

Slaviša Jokanović’s squad began the year with fairly high expectations, scoring a 4-2 win over Burnley on Matchday 3 and following up with a pair of draws against Brighton and Watford (with only an 0-3 loss to Manchester City in between).

Since then, it has been a horror-show. Everton posted a clean sheet in a 3-0 win over the Cottagers on September 29^th, but the month of October has been particularly painful.

The club has been able to squeeze out a few goals. German midfielder André Schürrle and 24-year-old forward Aleksandar Mitrovic have combined for 9 tallies. But the rest of the squad has scored a grand total of 2 times in 10 Premier League matches, and what is worse, the Fulham backline has been hapless trying to keep opponents out of its own net.

Arsenal cracked Jokanović’s 3-4-3 lineup for 5 goals on 10/7. When Schürrle and Ryan Sessegnon each scored to keep the squad level at 2-2 with Cardiff City before going into the break and then in the next match, the team quickly folded and allowed 2 more opposing goals with no answer in a 4-2 loss.

The club tried a 4-2-3-1 configuration against Bournemouth in the match to follow and swiftly gave up a penalty goal to Callum Wilson. Midfielder Kevin McDonald later took a red card as the Cottagers lost 3-nil.

The betting public has little faith in a club that cannot win matches or keep opposing forward lines contained. The Cottagers have tried loaner Sergio Rico alongside Marcus Bettinelli at goalkeeper, but nothing has worked so far, even when the midfielders stubbornly hold possession of the football. Fulham looks OK to the eye, but cannot create enough chances, and gives up tallies on far too many opposing shots.

It is not as if Huddersfield is a total flunky with no resume of success. The Terriers finished 16th out of 20 clubs in 2017-18 but can brag about having once won 3 top-level English league football titles in a row. Talented goalkeeper Jonas Lössl is an asset that a lot of higher-rated clubs wish they had.

Steve Mounié scored 7 goals in 28 appearances for the club during the 2017-2018 season. Laurent Depoitre of Belgium and Terence Kongolo of the Netherlands are accomplished club and international players.

But Huddersfield can relate to Fulham’s sorrow in the current campaign. The Terriers have defended better than Fulham in scattered matches, and held Liverpool to just 2 on-target shots and under 60% ball possession in a 1-0 loss to the Reds on October 20^th. However, it could be said that Huddersfield Town has faced a less-nightmarish schedule, managing draws vs clubs like Burnley and Cardiff City while struggling greatly themselves when up against the elite clubs of the Premier League.

Lossl maintains that there is reason for hopefulness, telling the Yorkshire Post that the club can learn from its mistakes and improve going forward. The beloved keeper did not play in the club’s 6-1 loss to City on August 19^th, but did give up 3 tallies on 6 on-target shots when the club lost 3-0 to Watford at Vicarage Road on Matchday 10…in spite of playing a 4-4-1-1 system designed to keep the Golden Boys off the scoreboard.

Huddersfield’s vigilant tactics and quality GK should come in handy against the pair of dangerous Fulham attackers. The club has flashed more quality attack and played better on the backline than Fulham in spite of not faring any better in the standings.

If the Terriers hold the ball for 69% of the match this Monday, it would be very tricky for Fulham to post a clean sheet or get its attack going enough to beat Lossl.

The combination of host pitch, finer goalkeeping, and a better variety of attackers and defenders makes Huddersfield almost a lock on the moneyline for this one.

Pick Huddersfield to win in 90+ minutes on Monday (+127).