The Arizona Cardinals lead football (10-2) with the best winning percentage through 13 weeks. The Cards haven’t had a winning season in the desert since 2015 and are in the driver’s seat to secure a first-round bye.
With nontraditional winners like Arizona, Cincinnati, and Washington lined up for playoff spots – some blueblood franchises are going to be on the outside looking in. The 49ers, Steelers, and Chargers are all excluded from the playoff field entering Week 14 action.
FiveThirtyEight provides a wealth of NFL playoff odds information and is cited often in this piece. Their NFL Prediction tools are fun to play around with. For each NFL team, I list the % chance that FiveThirtyEight gives of that team reaching the 2021 postseason as well as their first-round bye and Super Bowl equities.
Several factors determine a team’s shot of qualifying for postseason football – including current record, remaining strength of schedule, health of star players, and strength of division.
I also reference Oddshark often. Their suite of query tools and team reports make finding betting trends a breeze for both casual and hardcore NFL observers.
Three teams are mathematically eliminated from the postseason. Hilariously, 1-10-1 Detroit is now officially eliminated following their first win in 364 calendar days.
2-10 Jacksonville and 2-10 Houston are also both certainly on the outside looking into the playoff picture.
The 3-9 Jets are in rough shape but a path still exists that sees New York into the postseason. Is it probable? No! Running the table and finishing 8-9 would only slightly improve New York’s playoff chances to “trivial” and “in need of loads of help”.
It would take miracles for the Cardinals, Packers, or Bucs to miss the playoffs, but no NFL teams have clinched postseason berths yet in 2021. Arizona could lose out, finish 10-7, and still need a ridiculously specific scenario to occur in order to go home without playoff football.
We have 5 weeks of regular season football remaining in this the 102nd running of the National Football League. Let’s break down some playoff chances and wild endgame scenarios!
NFL Using Same Expanded Playoffs as Last Season
The NFL expanded the playoffs from 12 teams to 14 beginning in the 2020 season. This is the first expansion of the NFL postseason since the field changed from 10 to 12 in 1990.
Division winners will receive the 1-4 seeds in their conference based upon their regular season record. Seeds 5-7 will belong to the Wild Cards, of which there are now 3 in each conference.
It always looks bad for the NFL when teams with losing records sneak into the postseason. Those worried that an expanded postseason will allow even more teams with losing records into the field will be pleased to know that this is not the case. NBC Sports went back and found that if this current system had been implemented since 1990 – we would have a smaller percentage of losing teams in the playoffs as well as a smaller number of 10-win snubs, which also never goes over well.
Remember in 2008 when the Patriots were 11-5 and missed the playoffs while the 8-8 Chargers got to go? Yeah, that won’t happen now with the current system.
An added benefit of the 14-team field is that each conference now has just one bye. This will create more meaningful games among top teams late in the regular season. Gone are the days of 13-0 and 14-0 teams resting starters late in the season because they already have the 2-seed clinched.
Using FiveThirtyEight‘s season predictions, we can put together the potential 2021 NFL playoff bracket for amusement and speculation. Here it is!
AFC East
New England Patriots 9-4 
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: Bill Belichick’s Pats are the hottest team in the league – winners of 7 straight and now controlling their own destiny for both a first-round bye and Super Bowl win!
There is plenty of reason to believe that New England can run the table and finish 13-4. The Pats enter their Week 14 bye and will be well rested for a stretch run containing the 7-6 Colts, 7-5 Bills, 2-10 Jags, and 6-7 Fins.
The Patriots’ main competition for the first-round bye are the 8-4 Chiefs and the 8-4 Ravens. Each are within half a game of New England, roster incredible firepower, and are more than capable of catching the Pats from behind.
538 Playoff %: 98%
538 1st Rd Bye %: 44%
538 Super Bowl%: 14%
Week 14-18 Matchups: BYE, @IND, vsBUF, vsJAX, @MIA
Buffalo Bills 7-5
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: On October 10, 2021 the Buffalo Bills defeated the Chiefs in Arrowhead 38-20, improving to 4-1 and garnering the media’s label as “Super Bowl LVI Favorite”.
Buffalo has since dropped contests to the Titans, Jaguars, Colts, and Patriots to fall to 7-5. FiveThirtyEight still gives the Bills a solid chunk of playoff equity, but a scenario which Buffalo falls off the postseason map is not outside the realm of possibility.
The Bills have Tom Brady and the Bucs next week before taking on the high-upside Panthers in Week 15. Week 16 sees Buffalo rematching with New England, this time in Foxboro.
Should Buffalo limp into their Week 17 date with Atlanta with a 7-8 record, the Bills will possess just a 13% shot of earning a spot in the bracket.
538 Playoff %: 73%
538 1st Rd Bye %: 2%
538 Super Bowl%: 4%
Week 14-18 Matchups: @TB, vsCAR, @NE, vsATL, vsNYJ
Miami Dolphins 6-7
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: It’s impressive we are still having to talk about Dolphins’ playoff odds. This team won’t quit. Miami began the 2021 season on a horrible 1-7 note but has now won 5 straight to pull their record back to 6-7.
This is not a good record and their playoff equity is still low, but the Dolphins are peaking at the right time. Fans in Miami better hope that this late, Week 14 bye won’t adversely affect their Fins.
Miami has 2 very winnable games in Weeks 15 and 16 following their bye – the 3-9 Jets and the 5-7 Saints.
Things get much harder for Miami in the final 2 weeks of the season but who would want to bet against an 8-7 Fins team on a 7-game roll? Miracle in Miami, anyone?
538 Playoff %: 11%
538 1st Rd Bye %: <.1%
538 Super Bowl%: .3%
Week 14-18 Matchups: BYE, vsNYJ, @NO, @TEN, vsNE
New York Jets 3-9
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: Don’t let anyone tell you the Jets are out of the playoffs – they aren’t! 3-9 New York has a path to the postseason – albeit incredibly slim and treacherous. Let’s lay it out.
The Jets have to win out and finish 8-9 – which has about a 0% chance of happening, but if 5-straight wins materialize the Jets will still need plenty of help.
The Raiders would need to lose at least 3 of their last 5 games – finishing no higher than 8-9. The same also applies to both the Broncos and Dolphins – none of whom could finish above 8-9.
This is the tip of the iceberg. The Pittsburgh Steelers would also need to lose a few games to ensure they don’t finish with 8 wins. If all this occurs, what are the Jets playoff chances at? 10%? 20%? Nope, just .3%.
Next, we need either the Browns or Bengals to finish under 8 wins. One can surpass New York, but not both. The Buffalo Bills also need to lose some football games and finish under 8 wins.
The final piece of the puzzle is Indianapolis losing some games. Should the Steelers, Broncos, Dolphins, Raiders, Bills, and either the Bengals or Browns all finish at 8 wins or below – the Colts would still stand in the way of New York reaching the postseason.
The Colts finishing at or below 8-9 (depending on tiebreakers) could get New York a playoff berth from 3-9.
In this scenario, the Patriots, Chiefs, Ravens, and Titans would be the division winners with Wild Cards of the Chargers, Bengals/Browns, and Jets.
538 Playoff %: <.1%
538 1st Rd Bye %: Eliminated
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 14-18 Matchups: vsNO, @MIA, vsJAX, vsTB, @BUF
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 8-4
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Cowboys have a healthy lead in the weak NFC East – a full 2 games up on Washington. The scary thing is that Dallas plays the Re*****s twice in the final 5 weeks – meaning a takeover could be in order.
Should the Cowboys stumble and lose the division lead, a Wild Card berth would be possible as the NFC contains a few elite teams and then gets shallow in a hurry.
538 Playoff %: 97%
538 1st Rd Bye %: 3%
538 Super Bowl%: 3%
Week 14-18 Matchups: @WAS, @NYG, vsWAS, vsARI, @PHI
Washington Re*****s (Football Team) 6-6
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Re*****s have the best shot of catching the Cowboys in the NFC East because Washington plays Dallas twice in the final 5 weeks.
Washington is red hot – winners of 4 straight games to improve their record from 2-6 to 6-6. It is incredible that a team who was once 2-6 now controls their destiny in the division. A couple of wins over Dallas and Washington is suddenly in the driver’s seat.
538 Playoff %: 51%
538 1st Rd Bye %: <.1%
538 Super Bowl%: .6%
Week 14-18 Matchups: vsDAL, @PHI, @DAL, vsPHI, @NYG
Philadelphia Eagles 6-7
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Eagles are still in the hunt for both the division (less likely) and the NFC Wild Card (more likely).
Philly is 2.5 games back of division-leading Dallas with only 4 games remaining. Each of these games is a divisional matchup – meaning the Eagles can gain ground against the teams which matter most.
Should Dallas hold on to the NFC East lead, Philly could still find themselves in the playoffs with a 6 or 7-seed berth. The Rams currently control the 5 seed (top Wild Card) with an 8-4 record while the Re*****s and 49ers are tied for seeds 6 and 7 with 6-6 records.
Just a half game behind heading into their Week 14 bye, the Eagles are playing for a postseason berth and could be tied for a bid depending on action this weekend.
538 Playoff %: 37%
538 1st Rd Bye %: <.1%
538 Super Bowl%: .3%
Week 14-18 Matchups: BYE, vsWAS, vsNYG, @WAS, vsDAL
New York Giants 4-8
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Giants are not mathematically eliminated but are essentially out of it. The Giants have not experienced the postseason since 2016.
538 Playoff %: 4%
538 1st Rd Bye %: Eliminated.
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 14-18 Matchups: @LAC, vsDAL, @PHI, @CHI, vsWAS
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals 10-2
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Cardinals have the best record in football at 10-2 and control their own destiny for both a first-round bye and a Super Bowl LVI victory.
538 Playoff %: >99%
538 1st Rd Bye %: 44%
538 Super Bowl%: 16%
Week 14-18 Matchups: vsLAR, @DET, vsIND, @DAL, vsSEA
Los Angeles Rams 8-4
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Rams are in a good spot right now. Just 2 games behind Arizona with 1 head-to-head game to play, Los Angeles could very well overtake the Cards for the NFC West lead.
It’s not the end of the world for LA if they can’t catch Arizona. The Rams have a 2-game buffer on both Washington and San Francisco (who are each 6-6) for the 5 seed.
538 Playoff %: 90%
538 1st Rd Bye %: .3%
538 Super Bowl%: 3%
Week 14-18 Matchups: @ARI, vsSEA, @MIN, @BAL, vsSF
San Francisco 49ers 6-6
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: At 6-6, many around the 49ers would say this has been a disappointing season and yet the 49ers would have a spot in the postseason tournament if the season ended today.
6-6 is good enough for a tie with Washington for the 6/7 seeds in the NFC.
538 Playoff %: 62%
538 1st Rd Bye %: <.1%
538 Super Bowl%: .9%
Week 14-18 Matchups: @CIN, vsATL, @TEN, vsHOU, @LAR
Seattle Seahawks 4-8
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Seahawks possess the same record as the terrible New York Giants and the same amount of playoff equity. Do not expect to see Seattle in the postseason this year.
538 Playoff %: 4%
538 1st Rd Bye %: Eliminated.
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 14-18 Matchups: @HOU, @LAR, vsCHI, vsDET, @ARI
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs 8-4
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Chiefs have now won 5 straight games – storming back from 3-4 to improve to 8-4.
With a crisis successfully averted, the Chiefs can now return to dominating football games and Andy Reid can outscheme his opponents in peace without the media sniffing around for the source of his team’s demise.
538 Playoff %: 89%
538 1st Rd Bye %: 14%
538 Super Bowl%: 10%
Week 14-18 Matchups: vsLV, @LAC, vsPIT, @CIN. @DEN
Los Angeles Chargers 7-5
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Bolts are hanging in there at 7-5. This puts LA in a 3-way tie with Buffalo and Cincinnati for the 3 Wild Card bids in the AFC.
Current end-of-season projections on FiveThirtyEight have the Bolts on the outside looking in come playoff time.
538 Playoff %: 78%
538 1st Rd Bye %: 6%
538 Super Bowl%: 5%
Week 14-18 Matchups: vsNYG, vsKC, @HOU, vsDEN, @LV
Las Vegas Raiders 6-6
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: Vegas has had so many distractions surrounding the team in 2021, it’s a wonder they are even 6-6.
.500 is a decent season considering what Vegas has overcome, but it is not good enough for a spot in the crowded AFC playoff picture.
538 Playoff %: 9%
538 1st Rd Bye %: <.1%
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 14-18 Matchups: @KC, @CLE, vsDEN, @IND, vsLAC
Denver Broncos 6-6
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Broncos sold star linebacker Von Miller – signalling the end of their playoff push in 2021.
538 Playoff %: 17%
538 1st Rd Bye %: <.1%
538 Super Bowl%: .3%
Week 14-18 Matchups: vsDET, vsCIN, @LV, @LAC, vsKC
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 8-4
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Ravens lost a heartbreaker in Pittsburgh last week – electing to go for 2 at the end of the game and dropping the would-be game-winning pass.
This loss sinks Baltimore back down to the pack at 8-4 and creates even more of a bottleneck in the AFC playoff picture. At this point, Baltimore could earn a first-round bye, could be playing second fiddle to the Bengals, or could even miss the playoffs altogether.
538 Playoff %: 82%
538 1st Rd Bye %: 10%
538 Super Bowl%: 5%
Week 14-18 Matchups: @CLE, vsGB, @CIN, vsLAR, vsPIT
Cincinnati Bengals 7-5
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Bengals are attempting to go from worst to first – finishing in last place in the AFC North each of the past 4 seasons.
Cincinnati has not qualified for the postseason since 2015 and has a good shot to do so this year.
At 7-5, Cincy is in a 3-way tie with Buffalo and the Los Angeles Chargers for the 3 AFC Wild Card berths.
538 Playoff %: 44%
538 1st Rd Bye %: 1%
538 Super Bowl%: 1%
Week 14-18 Matchups: vsSF, @DEN, vsBAL, vsKC, @CLE
Pittsburgh Steelers 6-5-1
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The aforementioned thriller versus Baltimore kept Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes alive, but the outlook is still bleak in the Steel City.
The Steelers are a half game behind 3 different teams in the AFC Wild Card chase with no real shot at winning their AFC North division.
The biggest dampening factor on Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes is a killer final 5 games versus 3 winning teams and 2 other teams in the postseason hunt.
538 Playoff %: 18%
538 1st Rd Bye %: .2%
538 Super Bowl%: .3%
Week 14-18 Matchups: @MIN, vsTEN, @KC, vsCLE, @BAL
Cleveland Browns 6-6
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: Despite a marginally worse record, the Browns are given better odds by FiveThirtyEight of reaching the 2021 postseason.
538 Playoff %: 22%
538 1st Rd Bye %: <.1%
538 Super Bowl%: .5%
Week 14-18 Matchups: vsBAL, vsLV, @GB, @PIT, vsCIN
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 9-3
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Packers keep winning, have yet to drop a home game, and are perched nicely for a spot at the first-round bye in the NFC.
The schedule gets sneaky tough for Green Bay down the stretch with some rivalry games and quality opposition.
538 Playoff %: >99%
538 1st Rd Bye %: 33%
538 Super Bowl%: 15%
Week 14-18 Matchups: vsCHI, @BAL, vsCLE, vsMIN, @DET
Minnesota Vikings 5-7
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: Losing to the Lions devastated any hopes the Vikings had at reaching the postseason. Don’t expect too much now, you’ll get your hopes crushed.
538 Playoff %: 27%
538 1st Rd Bye %: <.1%
538 Super Bowl%: .3%
Week 14-18 Matchups: vsPIT, @CHI, vsLAR, @GB, vsCHI
Chicago Bears 4-8
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: While still hanging onto a sliver of hope, things are over in Chicago.
538 Playoff %: 1%
538 1st Rd Bye %: Eliminated.
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 14-18 Matchups: @GB, vsMIN, @SEA, vsNYG, @MIN
Detroit Lions 1-10-1
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: Give them a fork … they’re done.
538 Playoff %: Eliminated.
538 1st Rd Bye %: Eliminated.
538 Super Bowl%: Eliminated.
Week 14-18 Matchups: @DEN, vsARI, @ATL, @SEA, vsGB
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-3
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: Tom Brady has his boys in midseason form – winners of 3 straight.
Tampa has the NFC South all but locked up with the confidence of knowing they could lose out and still probably make the playoffs at 9-8 – quite possibly hosting the first round still.
538 Playoff %: >99%
538 1st Rd Bye %: 20%
538 Super Bowl%: 14%
Week 14-18 Matchups: vsBUF, vsNO, @CAR, @NYJ, vsCAR
New Orleans Saints 5-7
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Saints want so desperately to be good, but they’re actually pretty awful.
Even a ridiculously weak final 5 games won’t be enough to save New Orleans.
538 Playoff %: 14%
538 1st Rd Bye %: <.1%
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 14-18 Matchups: @NYJ, @TB, vsMIA, vsCAR, @ATL
Carolina Panthers 5-7
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Panthers started 3-0 and are 2-7 since. Treat them as a 2-7 team when evaluating their playoff chances.
538 Playoff %: 7%
538 1st Rd Bye %: <.1%
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 14-18 Matchups: vsATL, @BUF, vsTB, @NO, @TB
Atlanta Falcons 5-7
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Falcons play in a division with Tom Brady and really have no shot here.
538 Playoff %: 6%
538 1st Rd Bye %: <.1%
538 Super Bowl%: <.1%
Week 14-18 Matchups: @CAR, @SF, vsDET, @BUF, vsNO
AFC South
Tennessee Titans 8-4
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Titans are nearly a lock to reach the 2021 postseason and even possess great odds of bringing home the first-round bye.
An extremely weak final 5 games bodes well for Tennessee who have as good a shot as anyone in the AFC at reaching 13-4.
538 Playoff %: 97%
538 1st Rd Bye %: 22%
538 Super Bowl%: 4%
Week 14-18 Matchups: vsJAX, @PIT, vsSF, vsMIA, @HOU
Indianapolis Colts 7-6
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: The Colts have battled back from 0-3 to a respectable record and a two-thirds shot of reaching the postseason.
7-6 puts Indy just a half game back of a 3-way tie between Buffalo, the LA Chargers, and Cincy. This trio currently owns the 3 Wild Card bids in the AFC.
538 Playoff %: 62%
538 1st Rd Bye %: .3%
538 Super Bowl%: 2%
Week 14-18 Matchups: BYE, vsNE, @ARI, vsLV, @JAX
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-10
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: Put ole’ Urban to bed.
538 Playoff %: Eliminated.
538 1st Rd Bye %: Eliminated.
538 Super Bowl%: Eliminated.
Week 14-18 Matchups: @TEN, vsHOU, @NYJ, @NE, vsIND
Houston Texans 2-10
Week 14-18 Playoff Implications: Um, I don’t even know any of their players.
538 Playoff %: Eliminated.
538 1st Rd Bye %: Eliminated.
538 Super Bowl%: Eliminated.
Week 14-18 Matchups: vsSEA, @JAX, vsLAC, @SF, vsTEN
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
Leave a Reply