Birmingham Bowl Odds: Auburn vs Houston Moneyline and Other Yuletide FBS Picks

I’m the first handicapper to look on the bright side when rosters get ravaged. So long as there’s no tragedy involved – NFL Draft opt-outs and light “omicron” cases of COVID-19 are decidedly not tragedies – the specter of surprise roster-omissions can work in a gambler’s favor. Betting odds can’t shift or adapt quickly enough to stay accurate throughout a wild week of sports-coronavirus news, and inaccurate lines can only mean chances to beat the bookie.

That small silver lining won’t erase the dark cloud. Fresh omicron outbreaks are wreaking havoc across the sports world even as athletes are in less mortal danger from the virus. The NHL has been forced to glumly cancel a scheduled international break and play what could be a series of quiet, restricted make-up games during the Winter Olympics in February. College basketball’s schedule has become as spotty as in the late 2020s, and CFP enthusiasts have been met with the chilling thought of a postponement, cancellation, or forfeit that helps to determine a national championship.

The question arises as to whether betting on bowl games in Eastern and Pacific time zones is a wasted effort compared to wagers on Midwestern kickoffs, which are somewhat less frequently affected by sudden rashes of positive COVID-19 tests. WagerBop’s best advice is not to go “all-in” for any game scheduled along the coast in December or January, but not to dismiss any game on premonitions of COVID-cancellation if betting “units” on several postseason games.

Speculators should be divvying-up their CFB bowl bets to begin with. Wednesday night’s Armed Forces Bowl (hilariously referred to as the “Air Arrfur Bowl” by a tongue-tied ESPN announcer) showed that minor-bowl game outcomes remain unpredictable and invulnerable to “system” picks, even as a macro-analysis of bowl season and corresponding array of small bets can yield a profit overall.

Florida Gators vs UCF Knights (2021 Gasparilla Bowl)

Florida is a (-7) favorite going into Thursday night’s state-rivalry bowl game for a few standard “Las Vegas” reasons. The Florida Gators are 6-6 overall, a ghastly 3-9 against the spread in 2021, have lived through head coaching upheaval, and have only triumphed once in 5 games played away from The Swamp. Still, the Gators are popular picks to cover the spread against UCF.

Gators will also chomp without a handful of NFL Draft prospects, transfer athletes, and injured starters, including QB Anthony Richardson. Could it be that UF’s emotional win over FSU on Rivalry Weekend has inspired 10 days’ worth of ATS bets?

Central Florida’s struggle to match its usual standards is also a culprit. At most campuses in the AAC, 8-4 would be considered a pretty good season, but that’s not the case in Orlando.

Like the Gators, the Knights are dealing with a head-coaching change and are down to a backup QB. Unlike Florida, however, UCF has had longer to adjust to the scenario behind center, and student-athletes will be auditioning for a name-brand coach in Gus Malzahn. Central Florida’s defense has been vulnerable to high-powered attacks, but UF’s lack of a true 1st-string offensive backfield may restrict how overwhelmed the unit will become.

After a tumultuous few weeks, Florida is under-rehearsed for the Gasparilla Bowl and will probably commit at least a few costly penalties throughout the 4 quarters.

Recommended bet: UCF (+7)

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs Memphis Tigers (2021 Hawaii Bowl)

WagerBop isn’t whiffing on the “unfair” edge of a team hosting its own bowl. Halawa’s bowl organizers can feel accomplished for working around a common foible of holiday bowl games. Traveling teams are a reason bowls played in-between holidays can feel so “lackadaisical,” as a typically packed and roaring venue such as the Orange Bowl is faced with a weak live crowd. Except for unlucky students who commute over the Pacific to attend semesters at UH, Hawaii’s rabid fan base will be there cheering on Christmas Eve.

The Hawaii Bowl is not expected to be a thriller, as Hawaii is handicapped at (+8) on the spread against Memphis of the American Athletic Conference. Betting opened with Memphis Tigers speculators giving as little as a field goal, but the 6-7 Rainbow Warriors dealt with rare discontent and coach-athlete rancor in 2021, illustrated by the team’s starting offensive backfield splitting via the transfer portal at season’s end. Chavan Cordeiro’s absence at QB has caused the spread to explode, and Over/Under wagers that began on a market in the 60s are now betting against a line of just (55.5) total points for the lais-fest.

Some speculators may overlook the Tigers’ woes altogether. Memphis has only 6 victories of its own in 2021 and looked decidedly lackluster against ECU, Houston, and Tulane to finish the regular season.

The AAC representatives have a laundry list of players missing due to illness, transfers, and other issues. Hawaii’s stubborn positive outcomes over the years can be traced to the Rainbow Warriors’ plug-and-play style on offense and defense, including when a QB is replaced. Memphis has no track record of replacing 15 depth-chart slots and still covering wide spreads as the traveling team.

Recommended bet: Hawaii (+8)

Houston Cougars vs Auburn Tigers (2021 Birmingham Bowl)

So far, the Birmingham Bowl has not been affected by line-movement ATS even as the Houston Cougars (+2) appear far less hampered by NFL Draft and transfer portal losses.

Aside from missing cornerback Marcus Jones, the UH roster is largely intact compared to 2020’s exodus of athletes early in the postseason. Auburn has so many key players skipping the kickoff in Birmingham that it would be faster to list how many NFL Draft prospects remain on the squad. Houston lost a close game to a College Football Playoff team in its last appearance, while Auburn has lost 4 straight.

Recommended bet: Houston (+112) or (+2)

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs West Virginia Mountaineers (2021 Guaranteed Rate Bowl)

Unexciting bowl games are often camouflaged by kicking off within days or hours of New Year Six’s brands. However, in 2021, there’s no denying when the FBS slate’s soft spot occurs. Beginning with a Yuletide snoozer between Georgia State and Ball State, this year’s bowl season includes a string of forgettable games through Tuesday of New Year’s week, with Boston College vs East Carolina and Mississippi State vs Texas Tech among the examples.

Gamblers willing to persevere through Tuesday night should have a nice ATS opportunity at their fingertips. West Virginia has been a popular (+5) underdog to cover against Minnesota, the latter of which is mostly in the headlines due to imminent turnover on the offensive line and on P.J. Fleck’s coaching staff. But the Golden Gophers finished the season in terrific form in the Big Ten, while WVU shrank against Top 25 foes in the Big 12.

Don’t be fooled by glancing at “NFL Draft” headlines. Gopher OL Blaise Andries will declare only after playing next week.

Recommended bet: Minnesota (-5)

Clemson Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones (2021 Cheez-It Bowl)

Luckily for Iowa State, star QB Brock Purdy will remain on the field for their December 29th matchup. Purdy won’t mind having the warm confines of Camping World Stadium to throw passes in, and the skepticism of NFL scouts helps ISU remain intact even if it doesn’t help Purdy’s chances to play professional football.

Aside from retaining their QB, the Cyclones (-106) have just about everything else going against them in the Cheez-It Bowl. Clemson has not only made a belated dash to the finish line in 2021, but Dabo Swinney’s offense has come alive to help the Tigers win 5 games straight. There’s no further anxiety in Death Valley over how Clemson began the season, as evidenced by the team’s perseverance through injury woes and the offensive struggles of autumn.

Clemson isn’t saddled with the biggest missing piece to its puzzle, while ISU tailback Breece Hall has announced his intention to declare and skip the Cyclones’ bowl game altogether. Iowa State was going to rely on a stubborn ground assault to control the ball against Swinney’s burgeoning offense but must reassess its plan.

Cyclones bloggers are hemming, hawing, and predicting a 20-17 or 14-13 type of final score. That usually means the familiar team will lose by 14-plus points.

Recommended bet: Clemson (-114)