Like watching playoff football? Who doesn’t?! How about having a leg up on the boys in Vegas and churning a profit while watching – sounds pretty great, huh?
Ba ba ba bummm! Announcing Wagerbop’s annual NFL Playoffs Betting Guide! This is the most comprehensive NFL Playoffs betting guide on the internet and you, my friend, are receiving this gem for free. Trust us, the information contained in this guide cannot be found in one place anywhere else.
Wagerbop is very keen on finding current profitable betting trends and passing them on to you – our loyal readers. Be sure to check out our complete collection of NFL betting systems for even more bookie-beating content.
How We Get Our NFL Playoffs Data
This guide uses data from the past 10 postseasons, which would take us back to the 2011-12 season. 10 years worth of data is a large enough sample size to allow for natural regression but not too large to where trends get swallowed up and go undetected.
All of the ATS numbers we pull exclude pushes (because those are boring and don’t matter). This explains why sometimes the total number of games is different when comparing ATS and SU numbers.
FiveThirtyEight is an awesome source for data of all kinds – sports and otherwise. Stathead is a well-known and highly-trusted tool in the world of sports for digging up detailed team and player query info. Football Reference is a great resource for all things pigskin. TeamRankings is also a spectacular site for team stats and betting trends.
Of course, some of this data is compiled with the age-old combo of pencil, paper, and an Iphone calculator.
Does Home-Field Advantage Exist in the NFL Playoffs?
Of course there’s a home-field advantage! Have you ever played sports?!
– Some Guy on a Couch Who Hasn’t Crunched the Numbers
There is no margin for hunches when the NFL playoffs roll around. Fewer and more nationally publicized games mean the books are receiving more volume and the market becomes uber-efficient.
We need to scratch and claw for each percentage point of player edge we can muster. Leaving important decisions to hunches or gut feelings is not what smart or winning sports bettors do.
So home teams probably have an advantage, right? – let’s make sure. Home teams actually had a losing record in the 2020 NFL regular season – the first time this has happened since 1968! This was before COVID, too, so empty stadiums can’t be to blame.
The SU win rate for home teams in 2020 was just 49.8%. Typically, this number is between 55-60%. So yes, home teams in the NFL typically have an edge in on-field play. What about ATS, though? And what about the playoffs?
Take a look at the regular season ATS win rates and lines for home teams over the past 5 seasons:
| Season | Home ATS | Line |
| 2021-22 | 48.0% | -1.7 |
| 2020-21 | 48.4% | -1.4 |
| 2019-20 | 43.1% | -2.0 |
| 2018-19 | 48.4% | -2.5 |
| 2017-18 | 51.6% | -2.3 |
ATS rates for home teams are not blindly profitable. This is because Vegas is wise enough to give the favorites a couple of points. The average favorite in 2020 received over 1 point extra than the average favorite in 2018.
So what does this mean? We know that no ATS advantages exist during the NFL regular season. Also, we can see that the numbers are pretty steady. Let’s use ATS and SU data from past postseasons to predict how home teams will fare this January/February.
Home Teams ATS and SU in the NFL Playoffs
Let’s start by exploring home winning percentages in the NFL playoffs. This first table shows the ATS and SU win rates along with the average lines for home playoff teams over the past 10 seasons.
The Super Bowl is a neutral site game and does not count as home or away. This means there have been 10 true home games in each postseason since the 6-team per conference NFL playoff format was adopted in 1990 and 12 true home games last year with the 7-team format.
| Postseason | ATS % | SU % | Avg Line |
| 2020-21 | 50% | 50% | -3.3 |
| 2019-20 | 60% | 60% | -6.0 |
| 2018-19 | 33.3% | 50% | -4.3 |
| 2017-18 | 33.3% | 70% | -5.6 |
| 2016-17 | 80% | 80% | -7.0 |
| 2015-16 | 60% | 60% | -1.4 |
| 2014-15 | 40% | 80% | -6.7 |
| 2013-14 | 37.5% | 60% | -3.9 |
| 2012-13 | 50% | 60% | -4.7 |
| 2011-12 | 60% | 80% | -4.3 |
| Total | 51.0% | 64.7% | -4.7 |
51% ATS is below our 52.4% break-even point for spreads. That winning percentage is not profitable.
64.7% SU is also not profitable. If we use our formula, we find that to break even at -4.7 we would need to win approximately 68-69% of our moneyline bets.
Both the spread and moneyline have been -EV for home playoff teams over the past 10 years. Vegas does a very good job of weighting the home-field advantage in the NFL playoffs. It appears that between 4 and 5 points is the correct amount.
Road Teams ATS and SU in the NFL Playoffs
| Postseason | ATS % | SU % | Avg Line |
| 2020-21 | 50% | 50% | +3.3 |
| 2019-20 | 40% | 40% | +6.0 |
| 2018-19 | 66.7% | 50% | +4.3 |
| 2017-18 | 66.7% | 30% | +5.6 |
| 2016-17 | 20% | 20% | +7.0 |
| 2015-16 | 40% | 40% | +1.4 |
| 2014-15 | 60% | 20% | +6.7 |
| 2013-14 | 62.5% | 40% | +3.9 |
| 2012-13 | 50% | 40% | +4.7 |
| 2011-12 | 40% | 20% | +4.3 |
| Total | 49.0% | 35.3% | +4.7 |
49% ATS means blindy betting the visitors to cover during the NFL playoffs is a bad move. With an average spread of +4.7, bettors would need to hit between 37-38% of their moneyline bets to break even. The road teams’ 35.3% SU mark falls short.
Those of you paying close attention realized that the average lines for home and road teams are opposites: +4.7 and -4.7. We would then expect that their break-even percentages for moneyline bets would add to 100%, right? But they don’t. They actually add to somewhere between 105-107%. How can this be?
The answer is the “juice” or “vig” that sportsbooks charge. The juice/vig is a commission – usually 10% – that is built into the betting odds. This is why most point spreads are -110 odds. Because the books charge juice, the percentage needed to break even for either side is slightly higher than the true odds, hence the cumulative percentage over 100%.
So far we have determined there is no advantage to be held from betting teams solely based on the location of the game. Vegas seems to nail this aspect of NFL playoffs handicapping. Next, let’s look at the success of favored teams versus that of underdogs.
NFL Playoffs: Favorites vs Underdogs
There are 3 outcomes to any football game: the favorite wins and covers the spread, the favorite wins but doesn’t cover, or the underdog wins straight up. 2 of these 3 outcomes favor the underdog bettor. – Somebody’s Uncle in 1987
Getting points before the game kicks off is an incredible advantage, but it takes some serious guts to pick against a powerhouse 14-2 team at home in January.
Nailing an underdog pick lends itself to plenty of I told you so moments with your friends. The opposite – swimming upstream and betting against the heavy favorite – can make you feel very stupid when you lose. We’ve all been there.
So which option is better? Which is +EV? Great questions! This first table displays how favorites have fared both ATS and SU over the past 10 NFL postseasons.
Favorites ATS and SU in the NFL Playoffs
| Postseason | ATS % | SU % | Avg Line |
| 2020-21 | 38.5% | 61.5% | -5.3 |
| 2019-20 | 72.7% | 72.7% | -5.8 |
| 2018-19 | 40% | 54.5% | -4.1 |
| 2017-18 | 10% | 45.5% | -6.5 |
| 2016-17 | 81.8% | 81.8% | -6.7 |
| 2015-16 | 36.4% | 72.7% | -4.0 |
| 2014-15 | 45.5% | 81.8% | -6.2 |
| 2013-14 | 44.4% | 72.7% | -4.5 |
| 2012-13 | 63.6% | 72.7% | -5.8 |
| 2011-12 | 36.4% | 54.5% | -6.4 |
| Total | 46.8% | 67.0% | -5.5 |
There are two numbers we need to keep in mind to make sense of these percentages. The first is 52.4%. Most sports bettors know that 52.4% is the break even point for point spread bets. The extra 2.4% is necessary because the odds are -110 for these bets instead of an even pick ’em.
Favorites have won ATS at a 46.8% clip over the past 10 postseasons, which is well below the break even mark – making blind bets of favorites a terrible play on the point spread in the NFL playoffs.
Now, about that SU win rate. This rate fluctuates based on the average moneyline. With a moneyline of -5.5, favorites would need to win SU at a rate of 72.2% in order to break even. 67% is far below this mark.
Because favorites have performed poorly, we can expect the numbers to look favorable for underdogs over that same timespan. Let’s have a peek.
Underdogs ATS and SU in the NFL Playoffs
This table shows the ATS and SU records for underdogs over the past 10 seasons, along with their average lines.
| Postseason | ATS % | SU % | Avg Line |
| 2020-21 | 61.5% | 38.5% | +5.3 |
| 2019-20 | 27.3% | 27.3% | +5.8 |
| 2018-19 | 60% | 45.5% | +4.1 |
| 2017-18 | 90.0% | 54.5% | +6.5 |
| 2016-17 | 18.2% | 18.2% | +6.7 |
| 2015-16 | 63.6% | 27.3% | +4.0 |
| 2014-15 | 54.5% | 18.2% | +6.2 |
| 2013-14 | 55.6% | 27.3% | +4.5 |
| 2012-13 | 36.4% | 27.3% | +5.8 |
| 2011-12 | 63.6% | 45.5% | +6.4 |
| Total | 53.2% | 33.0% | +5.5 |
53.2% barely qualifies as a winning point spread rate. Yes, if you can catch the line at (-110) every time you’ll be eking out a meager profit, but throw in a couple of (-115) lines and that profit is out the window.
With odds of +5.5, an underdog would need to hit at a 32.5% clip on the moneyline in order to break even. 33.0% is, once again, slightly profitable. Betting dogs SU may be the way to lean in a coin flip but it won’t make you rich.
Betting favorites or underdogs ATS blindly in the NFL playoffs will not yield big winnings – it will probably lose you money. This shows the market is extremely efficient and finding an advantage over the books in the NFL playoffs is not so simple.
We need to keep digging if we want to unlock the key to profiting off the NFL playoffs.
Betting Home Underdogs in the NFL Playoffs
When we looked at home vs road, they were pretty even. When we looked at favorite vs dog, dogs were better bets. It is only logical to see what the numbers look like when we combine home/road and fave/dog filters.
There are just a couple of games (if any) per postseason in which the home team is the dog. This is because the higher seed – normally the better team – gets to play at home for most of the playoffs.
Because we are working with a small sample size, records are more appropriate for this table than percentages.
| Postseason | ATS Record | SU Record | Avg Line |
| 2020-21 | 1-1 | 0-2 | +6.8 |
| 2019-20 | 0-1 | 0-1 | +1.0 |
| 2018-19 | — | — | — |
| 2017-18 | 2-0 | 2-0 | +2.8 |
| 2016-17 | — | — | — |
| 2015-16 | 3-1 | 1-3 | +3.2 |
| 2014-15 | — | — | — |
| 2013-14 | 0-1 | 0-2 | +2.2 |
| 2012-13 | 0-2 | 0-2 | +3.2 |
| 2011-12 | 2-0 | 2-0 | +6.0 |
| Total | 8-6 (57.1%) | 5-10 (33.3%) | +3.7 |
The ATS record for home dogs are rather profitable!
57.1% is north of the 52.4% break even point. 57% is a terrific hit rate. At +3.7, dogs would need to hit on the moneyline at a 37.4% rate – so we’re losing some EV if we intend to bet home dog MLs.
Of course, we can’t reiterate enough that this is a tiny sample size and that the win rate is sure to be volatile.
It should go without saying, but since home dogs are decent bets, road favorites should be faded.
Betting the Over/Under Point Total in the NFL Playoffs
I hope people don’t figure out how profitable betting totals can be.
– The Vegas Sportsbooks
Spreads and moneylines are not the only way to make money betting playoff football. The point total can also be a lucrative bet.
The largest incentive for betting the total in lieu of the spread/moneyline is not having to pick who will win the game. With totals, you simply predict how the game will flow, which many claim to be easier to predict than winners and losers.
The following table shows how often the over and under have hit over the past 10 NFL postseasons.
| Postseason | Over % | Under % |
| 2020-21 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 2019-20 | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| 2018-19 | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| 2017-18 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 2016-17 | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| 2015-16 | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| 2014-15 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 2013-14 | 30% | 70% |
| 2012-13 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 2011-12 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Total | 48.7% | 51.3% |
There is no advantage to be gained simply from betting the total. Each side is below the magic number of 52.4%.
NFL Playoffs: ATS and SU Records by Number of Wins
Does the amount of wins a team had coming into a postseason game affect their odds of either covering the spread or winning SU? This table breaks down both the ATS and SU win percentages for teams based on their number of wins.
Note that “# of Wins” means TOTAL wins – regular season and playoffs. For example, if a team finishes 9-7 and then wins in Wild Card Weekend, that win would count toward the “9 win” category. They would then have 10 wins and would contribute to the “10 win” category in their Divisional Round game, and so on.
| # of Wins | ATS % | SU % |
| 7 | 2-0 (100%) | 1-1 (50%) |
| 8 | 1-2 (33.3%) | 1-3 (25%) |
| 9 | 7-6 (53.8%) | 6-7 (46.2%) |
| 10 | 15-16 (48.4%) | 17-16 (51.5%) |
| 11 | 24-18 (57.1%) | 19-26 (42.2%) |
| 12 | 22-20 (52.4%) | 23-21 (52.3%) |
| 13 | 19-22 (46.3%) | 24-18 (57.1%) |
| 14 | 11-14 (44.0%) | 14-11 (56.0%) |
| 15 | 5-7 (41.7%) | 5-7 (41.7%) |
| 16 | 2-1 (66.7%) | 2-1 (66.7%) |
| 17 | 0-1 (0%) | 0-1 (0%) |
| Totals | ||
| 7-10 | 25-24 (51.0%) | 25-27 (48.1%) |
| 11-12 | 46-38 (54.8%) | 42-47 (47.2%) |
| 13+ | 37-45 (45.1%) | 45-38 (54.2%) |
11 and 12-win teams have been cash money over the past 10 postseasons on the spread while fading teams with sterling records is an excellent choice. 11 and 12-win teams have a large sample size, so I really trust this data.
Team-By-Team Records in the NFL Playoffs
Some NFL teams just have a knack for winning playoff football games while others whither in the limelight. I want to distinguish these teams from one another.
This table contains data for each NFL team in the postseason this year. The corresponding numbers are each teams’ ATS and SU playoff records since the 2016-17 season. I decided to only go back 5 postseasons on this one because if we go back too far, the rosters and coaches are totally different and any relevance to today’s players is lost.
| Team | # of Games | ATS Record | SU Record | Avg Line |
| 49ers | 3 | 2-1 (66.7%) | 2-1 (66.7%) | -4.5 |
| Bengals | – | – | – | – |
| Bills | 5 | 2-3 (40%) | 2-3 (40%) | +0.8 |
| Bucs | 4 | 3-1 (75%) | 4-0 (100%) | -0.4 |
| Cardinals | – | – | – | – |
| Chiefs | 10 | 5-5 (50%) | 6-4 (60%) | -5.1 |
| Cowboys | 3 | 0-3 (0%) | 1-2 (33.3%) | -0.2 |
| Eagles | 6 | 5-1 (83.3%) | 4-2 (66.7%) | +4 |
| Packers | 7 | 4-3 (57.1%) | 4-3 (57.1%) | +0.7 |
| Patriots | 10 | 7-3 (70%) | 8-2 (80%) | -5.7 |
| Raiders | 1 | 0-1 (0%) | 0-1 (0%) | +4 |
| Rams | 6 | 3-3 (50%) | 3-3 (50%) | +0.2 |
| Steelers | 5 | 2-3 (40%) | 2-3 (40%) | -3 |
| Titans | 6 | 3-3 (50%) | 3-3 (50%) | +7.9 |
Team-By-Team HOME Records in the NFL Playoffs
I wanted to identify the teams with a strong home-field advantage. Certain clubs are deadly in front of their home crowds, especially in the postseason. In the previous table, I only went back 5 years because I needed the core of the team to remain the same. For this table, I used my default 10-year span because a home-field advantage is not something that will come and go quickly.
| Team | # of Games | ATS Record | SU Record | Avg Line |
| 49ers | 5 | 4-1 (80%) | 4-1 (80%) | -3.3 |
| Bengals | 2 | 1-1 (50%) | 0-2 (0%) | -1.5 |
| Bills | 2 | 1-1 (50%) | 2-0 (100%) | -4.8 |
| Bucs | – | – | – | – |
| Cardinals | 1 | 0-1 (0%) | 1-0 (100%) | -7 |
| Chiefs | 8 | 4-4 (50%) | 5-3 (62.5%) | -5.8 |
| Cowboys | 3 | 0-3 (0%) | 2-1 (66.7%) | -4.8 |
| Eagles | 4 | 2-2 (50%) | 2-2 (50%) | +0.4 |
| Packers | 8 | 4-3 (57.1%) | 5-3 (62.5%) | -5.2 |
| Patriots | 14 | 9-5 (64.3%) | 12-2 (85.7%) | -8.1 |
| Raiders | – | – | – | – |
| Rams | 2 | 1-1 (50%) | 1-1 (50%) | -7 |
| Steelers | 4 | 1-3 (25%) | 1-3 (25%) | -6.5 |
| Titans | 1 | 0-1 (0%) | 0-1 (0%) | +3.5 |
Coach-by-Coach NFL Playoff Records
Certain coaches seem to push all the right buttons in big games while others bumble their way to disappointing losses. This table will help determine which of those 2 categories each of the 14 playoff coaches fall into.
Shown below are each coach’s SU postseason records and the number of Super Bowls they have won in their head coaching career.
| Team | Coach | SB Wins | # of Games | SU Record |
| Patriots | Belichick | 6 | 43 | 31-12 (72.1%) |
| Chiefs | Reid | 1 | 32 | 17-15 (53.1%) |
| Cowboys | McCarthy | 1 | 18 | 10-8 (55.6%) |
| Steelers | Tomlin | 1 | 16 | 8-8 (50%) |
| Bucs | Arians | 1 | 7 | 5-2 (71.4%) |
| Rams | McVay | 0 | 6 | 3-3 (50%) |
| 49ers | Shanahan | 0 | 3 | 2-1 (66.7%) |
| Titans | Vrabel | 0 | 4 | 2-2 (50%) |
| Packers | LaFleur | 0 | 4 | 2-2 (50%) |
| Bills | McDermott | 0 | 5 | 2-3 (40%) |
| Bengals | Taylor | 0 | 0 | – |
| Cardinals | Kingsbury | 0 | 0 | – |
| Eagles | Sirianni | 0 | 0 | – |
| Raiders | Bisaccia | 0 | 0 | – |
Winning Percentage by Seed in the NFL Playoffs
Although the seeding is changed up a bit for this postseason (added a 7 seed plus the 2 seed no longer gets a bye), looking back at records by seed will be beneficial in unearthing trends.
In lieu of a traditional bracket style tournament the NFL reseeds after each round. This means the highest remaining seed next plays the lowest remaining seed, the second-highest plays the second-lowest, and so on.
The seeds are kept constant round-by-round in this table. This means if you started the postseason as the #4 seed, each game played would count toward the stats for the #4 seeds.
| Seed | # of Games | ATS Record (%) | SU Record (%) |
| 1 | 52 | 27-25 (51.9%) | 38-14 (73.1%) |
| 2 | 40 | 20-19 (51.3%) | 21-19 (52.5%) |
| 3 | 31 | 14-17 (45.2%) | 11-20 (35.5%) |
| 4 | 37 | 19-17 (52.8%) | 19-18 (51.4%) |
| 5 | 33 | 16-16 (50%) | 14-19 (42.4%) |
| 6 | 29 | 14-15 (48.3%) | 9-20 (31.0%) |
| 7 | 2 | 1-1 (50%) | 0-2 (0%) |
The 7 seed was brand new in the 2020-21 Playoffs. Assume 7 seeds to perform similarly to 6 seeds in years past until we get some reliable data on them.
The 1-seeds from each conference have played each other in the Super Bowl 4 times in the last 10 years. Obviously, this will yield a 1-1 ATS and SU record each time. If we remove these 4 matchups, the true ATS record for 1-seeds against all other seeds is 23-21 (52.3%) and the SU record is 34-10 (77.3%).
With a working knowledge of home vs road, dog vs fave, over vs under and how each team and coach fares historically – 2022 is lined up to be your best season of NFL playoff football betting yet!
See you on top, boppers!
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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