2022 World Cup Qualifiers: Mexico vs USMNT Odds, Preview, and Pick, Plus CONMEMOL Update

U.S. sports bettors who support the USMNT as fans (and as speculators) can take heart that Team USA-to-qualify prop betting odds have largely vanished from several big sportsbooks. In spite of consternation over the form of Stars & Stripes in the last round of CONCACAF qualifiers, the 2022 World Cup bid is in sight.

You wouldn’t know things were so rosy for Stars & Stripes from tracking the squad’s recent appearances, which made some speculators wonder if Christian Pulisic had even made the trip from Chelsea F.C. headquarters. Team USA’s best footballer was substituted-out against El Salvador, ineffective in a subsequent loss to Canada at Tim Horton’s Field, and responsible for a single, academic tally late in the USMNT’s heartening 3-0 defeat of Honduras. The USMNT’s cautious tactical approach to the previous trio of fixtures has threatened to turn Pulisic into a “reverse Paul Pogba” of CONCACAF, a player whose quality reverts to disparate levels when dressed in different shirts, as the schedule turns from Premier League to FIFA football and back again.

Will manager Gregg Berhalter find better use for his superstar as the North American slate turns tough again? Or has Pulisic’s supporting cast grown into a superior attacking side with-or-without goals off the boot of #10?

Scroll for a look at Team USA’s final 3 qualifiers … and betting odds on another marquee FIFA bout.

Thursday, March 24: Mexico vs United States

El Tricolor hasn’t been the luckiest side from a lineup point-of-view. Mexico was divided into 2 sides in 2021 when the Tokyo Olympics occurred a year off-schedule, with iconic keeper Ochoa traveling to play with “Mexico B” while Chucky Lozano and others remained with “Mexico A” to compete in the Gold Cup. (If the IOC ever changes its rules to prohibit veteran ringers on U23 Olympic squads, we can remove the letters, and go back to using numbers, when a FIFA nation plays in simultaneous events.)

Mexico stormed to victory once the starting 11 was reunited. Ochoa led the way as El Tri defeated Costa Rica 1-0 in a contentious September match, then held serve with draws against CONCACAF big-shots Panama and Canada before winning the next 2 qualifiers an aggregate 5-0. The momentum slowed to a halt, however, when El Tricolor dropped 3 points to Stars & Stripes on the home grounds of F.C. Cincinnati, giving up late goals to Pulisic and Serie A midfielder Weston McKennie despite another intense tackling effort from Mexico that goaded victorious back-liner Miles Robertson into taking a red card in the 89th minute.

If there’s a reason El Tri is a (+110) favorite over Team USA (+250) on Thursday – other than the match taking place at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City – it’s because the Mexicans bounced back in trademark fashion from the clean-sheet loss to Stars & Stripes and a subsequent 3 dropped points to Canada. Following last month’s 1-0 win over Panama, the rejuvenated hosts can easily race to the finish line with 6 combined points against Honduras and El Salvador in the cycle’s final 2 qualifying rounds.

That might not be so easy against a USMNT squad with eyes on a similar gambit. Pulisic’s schedule of appearances has begun to diminish in number slightly in spite of Chelsea’s ongoing bids in the UEFA Champions League and FA Cup. This time around, Chelsea management cannot again plea with Berhalter to limit the superstar’s minutes in preparation for a “crucial” match the following weekend against Brentford F.C. While every English league match in April can be considered a hefty fixture in some way, no supporters are under the illusion that April 2nd’s match is as important as Chelsea’s UEFA quarter-final against Real Madrid, subsequently to begin on April 6th. It will be Blues manager Thomas Tuchel, not Berhalter, who will be under pressure to keep Pulisic restrained and fully healthy going into the upcoming Champions League tie.

FanDuel Sportsbook is offering just (+250) odds on Mexico scoring 2 goals in the match. That’s a clue that the USMNT’s back line, which in truth has developed in greater quality and numbers than the still MLS-laden forward ranks, could surprise with a nice appearance. Mexico’s penchant for using fouls to slow down an opposing attack could backfire on home turf by allowing set-pieces.

The sportsbook gives Team USA bright (-150) odds to cover a (+1) spread.

WagerBop’s Pick: Draw (+220)

Thursday, March 24: Colombia vs Bolivia

The Sundance Kid complained to Butch Cassidy that a tiny rural gazebo could turn out to be “the hot spot of all Bolivia.” Bolivia’s match with Colombia on Thursday could turn into an unlikely “sports gambling hot spot” alongside March Madness tip-offs, mostly due to characteristics of the other CONMEBOL and CONCACAF qualifiers, and their accompanying betting odds, this week.

There isn’t a lot for speculators to pick from in the Western Hemisphere’s upcoming kickoffs. Uruguay is expected to handle Peru without much difficulty, and Brazil carries prohibitive (-280) odds to beat Chile on Thursday. Canada’s generous (+150) odds to defeat Costa Rica are inspired less by the 1-0 Canucks victory over Los Ticos on November 12th, and more by the CONCACAF table leaders’ cushion over current runners-up United States and Mexico that could restrain Canada’s tactics away from home. Colombia’s odds to defeat Bolivia go in the “prohibitive favorite” category at (-1000), and yet Colombia vs Bolivia stands out as significantly more interesting on the betting board than the aforementioned qualifiers. That’s because of the strange trek of Colombian football, a program that could win the FIFA World Cup with its defending, but can’t score to save Juan Valdez.

Colombia snapped a scoring swoon of close to 500 minutes-played in a recent 2-1 win over Honduras. But that was a friendly match. When the Coffee Growers returned to CONMEBOL qualifiers, goals disappeared again. No one was surprised when Colombia lost to Argentina 0-1 on February 1st, even though the Argentinians went onto the pitch without Messi and a host of other stars. But a previous loss to Peru by the identical score emphasizes just how pale the staid Coffee Growers’ attacking has gotten. Colombia footballers whiffed on an unthinkable 28 out of 30 shot-attempts, and would soon fall to 7th place with 2 matches to play.

FanDuel’s current “exact score” prop bets reveal that bookmakers think 2-0 is the likely final score. That doesn’t explain the book’s whopping (+156) payoff odds on Under (2.5) total goals, given the 1-1 draw between Colombia and Bolivia last autumn.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (2.5)

Sunday, March 27: United States vs Panama

If there’s a match in which Team USA is most likely to clinch a slot in Qatar’s 2022 World Cup, it’s Sunday fixture against Panama at Exploria Stadium in Orlando City. There are more matches remaining in the CONCACAF qualification cycle than remaining in the CONMEBOL tournament, so we’ll have a better idea of the final table shake-out by this weekend. The United States has prospered against Panama historically. In fact, the Yanks have drawn more games (4) than they have lost (3) in the series, prevailing in 17 matches out of 24. FanDuel Sportsbook is withholding Sunday’s odds for now, to avoid giving away an easy USA line to win.

But don’t expect betting odds to be lopsided. Panama’s surprise 1-0 victory over Team USA in October is among the biggest reasons why the USMNT’s growing pains have caused such concern among restless supporters. The Panamanians have won a quintet of victories in the current FIFA cycle and have an excellent chance to qualify for the World Cup.

Wednesday, March 30: Costa Rica vs United States

It’s not that long until the USMNT wraps up its Q-schedule for 2022 in Costa Rica, and yet it may be some days before sportsbooks finalize and offer betting markets on the final non-playoff CONCACAF kickoff.

Costa Rica against Team USA could turn into almost any kind of pre-match scenario. The USMNT could lose 1 or 2 matches beforehand, and play in a desperate fashion trying to salvage the qualification season. Or, the Yanks could clinch a spot in Qatar before ever getting off the plane.

Likewise, next Wednesday’s hosts could be jockeying for placement in the top-3, in need of a surprise victory to stay alive. Much will depend on how Costa Rica fares against visiting Canada this Thursday.

Update 3/26: WagerBop’s successful prediction on a draw between Mexico and the United States (or rather, the 0-0 draw in Mexico City itself) has led to a scenario in which the USMNT is highly regarded, but feared fatigued going into Sunday’s fixture against Panama. Bookmakers are siding with those who think Pulisic and other 90+ minute workhorses have some Thoroughbred power left for the weekend, giving the Stars & Stripes at least 1-to-2 moneyline odds to prevail.

Our recommended bet for Sunday is “Panama to score no goals” on (-135) prop betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.