UEFA Champions League: Quarter-Final Back Leg Previews, Odds, Prop Bets, and Picks ATS

WagerBop’s ongoing Champions League predictions have hit a slight snag as of the Q-Finals, as Nikola’s job of picking teams-to-win and my role of looking-over the entire event for a variety of picks begins to irrevocably intersect with only 8 clubs left on the ledger.

With 4 back-legs to play before the 2022 field is whittled to just 4 teams, going through and manufacturing my own dutiful money-line picks on each match runs the risk of simply warming-over match picks already on-site. Since my UEFA predictions (or any predictions) aren’t always the same as my colleagues’ picks, it could leave readers confused, too.

So to ward-off any “WagerBop anti-consensus” picks, we’re going with a specialty preview recommending prop bets, totals, and the “odd” spread (excuse the pun) for the upcoming quarter-final back ties. Nikola, of course, is prone to goal-total picks on occasion as well. Hopefully, our combined efforts will lead bettors into the proper frames of mind.

Like, nobody’s just copying WagerBop with their European soccer picks, right? Because hey – I’m not here to tell you that you wouldn’t win often. But it really takes the fun out of it.

UEFA Champions League Q-Final Fixtures, Lines, and Picks

Tues. April 12: Real Madrid vs Chelsea F.C.

A rare and rewarding opportunity come with betting on the final leg of Champions League rounds. What could be finer than watching half of an event, getting a very, very long “halftime break” to recalibrate a gambling strategy, then picking the bout’s ultimate winner (or last-leg winner) only once all angles have been taken into account?

Of note, however, is that the mood of a soccer club can change dramatically in-between legs of a 2-match tie in the UEFA’s elimination bracket. Chelsea’s (+200) odds to out-score Real Madrid (+140) in the opponents’ back quarter-final leg may be significantly simpler for bookmakers to handicap, since Chelsea can go nowhere in the EPL points race.

Nonetheless, we can expect Blues to play hard and try to wrangle back some kind of momentum against Southampton this weekend. Chelsea needs a spark of any kind after falling behind 3-1 on aggregate goals against Vikings on home turf.

Blues’ terrible opening leg against Real Madrid dealt the club the ignominy of giving up a hat-trick to a player unfamiliar to some casual English Premier League fans, veteran striker Karim Benzema. Less of the EPL’s supporters ignore international sports in the vein of NFL, NBA, and NHL fans, and so few punters were truly surprised to see the reputable Frenchman prosper against an elite back line. What did surprise most United Kingdom onlookers more was that Chelsea only managed just single tally of its own.

Razor-thin (-1500) odds on Real Madrid to advance to the semi-finals illustrate what a tough climb Chelsea could be mounting, even if merely to force a tie-breaker. But do the 2-to-1 money-line odds on Blues increase in value because Real Madrid doesn’t need to win, or draw, to advance? Or could Chelsea’s desperation lead to a bad beat if the visitors are leading 1-0 with minutes to play, and need a goal to move on?

Blues have proven to be an extremely tough out in all elimination matches, let alone when defending a little “diddy bump” thing like the European title. Our hunch is that the finish in Spain could be more nail-biting than the bookmakers’ odds are letting on.

WagerBop’s Pick: Chelsea (+1) or (+0.5) ATS

April 12: Bayern Munich vs C.F. Villarreal

Opening playoff leg struggles for Bayern Munich have resulted in Bundesliga’s champions drawing 5-to-1 odds on winning another Champions League title. Villarreal is the latest underdog to give the Germans royal fits, scoring a 1-0 upset at home in this week’s opening quarter-final tie. Despite the early goal from Villarreal standing as Cinderella’s only tally in the match, the stat sheet’s inference that Yellow Submarine didn’t muster any other shots-on-target is highly deceptive. Villarreal countered Bayern’s listless possessions at most turns of the fixture, and in fact, Bayern’s late push for an equalizer made the Germans look like a team that could be about to suffer elimination. Forward numbers for Bayern Munich led to thrilling chances in the other direction, with only Villarreal’s nerves holding a 1-0 aggregate score.

Can Bayern’s reputation remain stout at sportsbooks? The “0-1” trailing team is a (-390) money-line wager to win the back leg on home grounds, and Bayern Munich is also a nearly prohibitive (-290) prop bet to advance. Villarreal bettors can draw tasty (+225) prop betting odds, lose the match 1-0, and still win the payoff if Yellow Submarine wins on penalty kicks.

WagerBop’s Pick: Pick: Villarreal to Advance (+225)

April 13: Atlético Madrid vs Manchester City

The thinnest odds on a 1-0 leading club seen this late in the Champions League cycle are represented by Man City’s (-1400) odds to advance to the semi-final round, at least when it comes to bouts with storied European sides. The prohibitive odds on Man City to spank a non-EPL opponent aren’t based on brash confidence in English football for once.

Instead, the current mismatch between British and Spanish football brands was evident from the outset of City’s victory this week, as Madrid managed no shot attempts in 90+ minutes of play. Pensioners’ dominating win had the aura similar to a FIFA World Cup lineup from Brazil or Germany controlling 4/5ths of the action against Panama. If the hosts’ luck runs out on Wednesday, Man City could be on its way to another easy qualification before half-time comes to a close.

The assumption that Atlético Madrid will circle its wagons around the goal box once again is illustrated by FanDuel Sportsbook’s (+100) odds on Over (2.5) total goals scored in the back leg.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (2.5)

April 13: Liverpool F.C. vs S.L. Benfica

Manchester City’s methodical beatdown of La Liga contrasts sharply with Liverpool’s opening-leg match with S.L. Benfica, a fixture full of thrills, spills, and counter-attacking chances. But by the time Luis Diaz scored to give Liverpool a 3-1 aggregate lead in the quarter-final round, it became clear that Salah’s side could have the easiest back-leg path of any Premiership team as of late.

Wednesday’s match comes with a (-340) money-line on Liverpool to win (in 90+ minutes, not on aggregate goals), an offering that is too expensive to wager without a parlay. But it’s not as chintzy as a Liverpool market might be expected to be, considering the overwhelmed adversary visiting Anfield. Jürgen Klopp will dial-back Liverpool’s lineup if afforded a comfortable chance to do so. After all, Reds aren’t used to having a real go at the domestic treble or playing deeply into 4 competitions.

Of note, however, are that the O/U odds on Liverpool-Benfica stand in stark relief to Reds’ cautious money-line odds. FanDuel’s (+108) betting odds on Over (3.5) total goals (not “2.5” total goals) demonstrate that at least someone in Las Vegas – or London – thinks Salah’s side will soar. We’re in agreement – but too wise to Klopp to imagine gratuitous scoring.

WagerBop’s Pick: FanDuel Handicap Draw: Liverpool (-2) (+330)