We Found a Division Even Worse than the AL Central

Which is harder in professional sports? Traveling east to west or west to east?

While those West coast night games seem awfully late for an Easterner, East coast day games start alarmingly early for a body on West coast time.

Handicapping long trips and travel schedules has long been a favorite angle of sharp sports bettors since the days of bus rides and flying commercial air.

There’s obviously more to a game than noting the location. The strengths of the teams involved are still the biggest factor in a successful ‘cap – regardless of if the game is played in New York, Los Angeles, Tokyo, or Mars.

Brainstorm sesh … let’s name some of the best MLB teams right now. Go!

Ok, um … Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, Mets, Astros, Rays, Brewers … um …

Good. Quick count here … that’s a grand total of 3 Western teams, 3 Eastern teams, and 1 Central team (by division). This is no coincidence.

The best MLB teams right now are either all the way on the East coast or all the way out West. In the middle you got Milwaukee … and maybe Minnesota? Slim pickins’.

Think about those other Central division teams. The Guardians, Tigers, Royals, White Sox, Cubs, Pirates, Cardinals, Reds. Do they strike fear into your heart when they pop up on your favorite team’s upcoming schedule? Nah! Of course not! That list is a real who’s who of weak MLB teams.

This is no new phenomenon. The 2 Central divisions have been void of good teams for several seasons now – granting the upper hand to the incoming opposition from the coast.

As you might expect, teams from the Central typically play the role of underdog in interdivisional clashes. Here is a quick little graphic I threw together illustrating the average odds per division in OOD (out of division) play.

The bars that go down into the minus odds indicated being favored. The bars that go up into the plus odds indicate those teams are dogs.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that teams from the Central are underdogs when they play OOD – especially the ultra-weak American League Central.

Teams in the AL East and the NL West are large favorites OOD – indicating they rule their respective leagues (or at least are expected to). AL East teams on average bear (-134.1) moneyline odds OOD compared to (-132.4) for NL West teams.

With the average moneyline odds in mind it’s time to check out the only numbers that truly matter in this study – profit!

This next graphic shows which divisions profit from OOD play and which would rather play all of their games locally.

Ouch, betting NL East teams OOD is like lighting cash on fire this season. Why is that?

It’s Hard to Like NL East Moneylines Right Now

Referencing the previous chart shows NL East teams are decent favorites in their OOD contests – (-115.9) to be exact. Using our magic sports betting formula with (-115.9) tells us these Eastern teams would need to win at a rate of 53.7% to break even.

On the year, NL East teams in OOD play are 65-80 – a 44.8% win rate. This falls woefully short of the break-even mark and is the reason for over $2,500 in moneyline losses.

3 of the bottom-4 teams in moneyline profit this season reside in the Eastern division of the National League. These 4 bottom feeders all possess moneyline losses on the year in excess of $1,000. They are the Royals, Marlins, Braves, and Phillies. Yes, that’s 3 NL East teams in the bottom 4 of moneyline profit.

What about those Nationals? They’re way down the list, too – weighing in at 21st in the MLB at -$623. The only NL East team enjoying any success on the moneyline are the New York Mets.

To say the Mets are carrying the division in OOD play is an understatement. New York has won 16 of their 26 OOD games – turning a healthy profit. Remove them from the equation and this underwhelming division loses over $2,800 on the ML instead of $2,500.

What are the excuses for the NL East? The Braves are smack in the middle of a Super Bowl hangover. Some saw this coming.

The Marlins became overvalued following some promising early-season wins – losing it all back and then some after dropping 8 of their last 10.

The Phillies are perplexing. On paper, they have just as much talent as any National League team not named the Dodgers and yet are below .500 and in 3rd place in the only division in baseball with 4 losing teams.

The Nationals were expected to stink and are actually doing the 2nd-best on the moneyline of any team in the division … so props to them, I guess.

 

Ryan Zimmerman hit the ninth walk-off home run of his career July 26, 2013 off LaTroy Hawkins.

Zim had now hit a walk-off homer against each NL East opponent.

👑 // https://t.co/bXj6uJNH8p pic.twitter.com/Mqj96gAJgn

— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) June 1, 2022

Someone Other than the Dodgers is Powering the NL West Charge

If I gave you one guess as to who was driving the NL West’s $1,162 profits you would say the Dodgers. But you’d be wrong.

While the Dodgers are a +EV proposition on the moneyline, their profits come from beating up on intradivisional teams – not taking their talents around the league. It is the Arizona Diamondbacks – of all teams – who are leading the entire MLB in moneyline profits generated in non-division games.

Take a look at this chart detailing the top, bottom, and the Dodgers – because they are interesting.

Wow, watch out for those Pirates. It’s weird that Pittsburgh can’t handle the weak competition in their own division and yet plays teams like the Padres and Dodgers close for huge underdog cashes.

Pittsburgh is a break-even team overall on the ML – up $15 to date. This means OOD contests account for 5220% of the Pirates’ overall moneyline profits – which is a humorous statistic I felt the need to type up.

Yankees Garner Bulk of Profit in Non-Rivalry Games

Note how the Yankees are an incredible 14-5 in OOD games – which is the top win rate in the MLB for any team in such games – and yet are just 3rd in profit. This is because the sportsbooks know New York is the premier team in the American League (maybe the MLB). They force you to pony up and lay the big bucks if you want a piece of the Pinstripers’ action.

New York still wins in intradivision games, just not at the same rate as OOD. The Yanks are up $833 on the ML overall this season – meaning OOD games account for 72.4% of the team’s total ML profits.

New York is slight losers against Tampa this year and slight winners against both Baltimore and Boston. Those Toronto wins make up a big chunk of the Pinstripers profits, but none as big as that 72.4% green region when NYY plays OOD.

Remaining aware of which teams play well at home, on the road, and in rivalry games is a key component of ‘capping the long MLB season. Hang in there, boppers. Betting baseball is a grind – a marathon, not a sprint.