Which MLB Division Leaders are Locks for the 2022 Postseason?

Can we begin the MLB Playoffs already? I mean, it’s June and we pretty much already know who is going to reach the postseason, right?

While this sentiment is echoed by those new to professional baseball, experienced sports bettors know the landscape can still change so much it could be totally unrecognizable come September.

The Mets, Yankees, and Astros all hold large leads in their division here in early June. Will all 3 of these hold? Today, the AL Central and AL West combined have just 2 winning teams. Surely this can’t hold up, right?

The 6 division winners are currently the Yankees, Twins, Astros, Mets, Brewers, and the Dodgers.

You’d probably call me foolish if I picked each of these teams to remain on top through the summer. So much can change, right? I’m sure I’d also not be taken seriously if I predicted 0 of these 6 teams to reach October.

So how safe are the current leads and how many of them should we expect to hold? Let’s see what history tells us.

First Place in June – Predictive or Worthless?

I took a look back at the previous 10 seasons of MLB standings (excluding 2020). I simply saw who was in first place on June 7th (today’s date) and compared that to the division winner at the end of the year.

There are 6 divisions in baseball. 10 years worth of data provides 60 division races. I wanted to answer a few simple questions. How often did the team in first place on June 7 hold their lead? Did teams in first place tend to grow that lead or let it shrink?

Here is what I found. Remember, this goes back to the 2011 season (and excludes 2020).

Held lead	Lost lead	Held and Grew Lead	Held but Lead Shrunk
55%	45%	40%	15%

Teams in first place on June 7 remain there 55.0% of the time. 40.0% of the time they add to their lead.

55% is good – better than half – but it is by no means a certainty. First-place teams in early June blow their lead 45% of the time. I was curious who tended to win the division when the team in first place on June 7 stumbled.

Logic would tell us that the 2nd-place team won the next-most often, but I wanted to verify that with data.

Here is the breakdown of division winners based on their place in the standings on June 1.

1st place	2nd place	3rd place	4th place	5th place
55.0%	33.3%	10.0%	0%	1.7%

The 2nd-place team on June 7 does have a decent shot of winning the division. The odds for a 3rd-place team are also non-trivial.

Even one 5th place team has come back to win their division this decade. The Dodgers were in 5th place and 7.5 games back of 1st in the NL West on June 7, 2013 and then came back to win the division by 11 games thanks to a 63.3% win percentage in June, July, August, and September.

This 7.5-game deficit was not the largest deficit on June 7 to overcome to win a division in the past 10 years. Here are the top 5:

Team (Year)	GB of 1st	Place on June 7th
Dodgers (2014)	10	2nd
Dodgers (2013)	7.5	5th
A’s (2012)	7	3rd
Tigers (2012)	6	3rd
Orioles (2014)	5.5	2nd

10 games is the largest June 7 deficit erased in the past 10 years. Teams that are 10 games back or more of their division leader today include the Red Sox, Tigers, Phillies, Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Rockies.

All hope is not lost for these squads. Teams have overcome double-digit deficits far later in the season than June 7. Don’t get your hopes up, though.

How resilient were those 2013 and 2014 Dodgers? LA played comeback during the second half of both of those seasons – clawing up from last place in 2013 (the last team to do so) and then overcoming an even larger deficit against a terrific Giants team in 2014.

MLB Division Winner Futures Odds

It is one thing to use historical data to predict a team’s chances of winning their division, but what if we consult the experts who put their money where their mouth is each and every night? Let’s pull up the Vegas odds.

Looking at the futures odds will tell us how confident Vegas is in each club to make the postseason. First race to look at – the winningest division in the American League – the AL East.

The odds listed are the Bovada futures odds to win the division.

AL East

Team	GB	Odds
Yankees	—	-300
Blue Jays	7	+300
Rays	7.5	+1100
Red Sox	11.5	+4500
Orioles	16.5	+100000

-300 seems appropriate for a team with a 7-game lead. First place teams in early June only hold up in 55% of division races. Optimistic Pinstripers can point to the fact that 7-game leads survive frequently historically. Haters will reference the tremendous competition the Yankees face within their own division – namely the Rays and Jays – as a reason their lead is not as safe as it seems.

Up next, a division that gets no love … ever – the AL Central.

AL Central

Team	GB	Odds
Twins	—	+115
Guardians	4	+800
White Sox	5	-105
Tigers	10	+8000
Royals	13.5	+25000

Don’t sleep on the White Sox. Vegas has Chicago as the division favorite despite their sluggish 25-27 start.

This speaks more to the general weakness of the AL Central than it does the strength of the Sox. Analogs to Chicago around the American League are the Red Sox, Angels, and Rangers.

Each sports a similar record and yet only Chicago has the distinction of being a Vegas division favorite. The others are on average +4366 to win their respective divisions.

AL West

Team	GB	Odds
Astros	—	-800
Angels	8.5	+600
Rangers	9.5	+8000
Mariners	10	+1600
A’s	16	+50000

The Astros are very good and none of the other 4 teams in the West are. It’s too bad because the Angels always seem to be on the verge of turning a corner … but just can’t.

All of baseball wants to see Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in the postseason. The Mariners are a fun, young team as well but hail from a small market and lack big-name appeal.

NL East

Team	GB	Odds
Mets	—	-375
Braves	8.5	+325
Phillies	11.5	+1400
Marlins	13	+6600
Nationals	17	+90000

The Mets led the NL East for an overwhelming majority of the 2021 season until being chased down in September by the eventual-champion Atlanta Braves.

Once again in 2022, New York is running the East with a 38-19 record (best in the National League). This gives the Mets a commanding 8.5-game lead on 2nd-place Atlanta who are hovering around .500.

The Mets have the 3rd-largest run differential in baseball and boast the 2nd-best home record in the Majors this year. They should be aware, however, that both the Braves and Phillies below them are on winning streaks (6 and 5).

You know Mets fans will be holding their breath until the final strike of the clinching game. No celebrating early in Queens. (-375) favorites have a 79% chance of winning.

NL Central

   

Team	GB	Odds
Brewers	—	-265
Cardinals	1	+175
Pirates	7	+25000
Cubs	10	+12500
Reds	13	+60000

Essentially a 2-team race here, seeing Milwaukee and St. Louis atop the NL Central is nothing new.

The Brewers and Cards have comprised the top-2 of the Central each full season dating back to 2019.

NL West

   

Team	GB	Odds
Dodgers	—	-280
Padres	2.5	+300
Giants	5.5	+800
DBacks	10	+90000
Rockies	12	+90000

Last season the San Francisco Giants led baseball with 107 wins. Right behind were the Dodgers – relegated to the Wild Card – with a measly 106 wins.

San Fran was 37-22 (62.7% win rate) on this date last season. The Dodgers weren’t far behind at 34-25 (57.6%).

Currently, LA is beating last year’s pace with a fantastic record of 35-19 (64.8%). The Giants are quite a ways off their 2021 pace at 29-24 (54.7%).

The moral of this story is standings during the first week of June do not mean a whole lot. Teams with double-digit leads are historically quite safe, but anything under 10 games is still very much in question.

Remember, teams in first place on June 7 only go on to win the division 55% of the time. Don’t overreact to April and May results.