USFL Championship Game: Stallions vs Stars Betting Preview, FanDuel Odds, and Moneyline Pick

WagerBop has been bemused by the USFL’s scheduling choices this season, and it has nothing to do with the “pre-match” scenario of Week 10, in which teams of the new league were less motivated to tax their starting-11 units on offense and defense than NFL teams during the dull preseason weeks of August. That accident that was caused by standings and circumstances – the timing and dates of USFL kickoffs were most assuredly set on purpose.

For a league supposedly making all of its money on TV broadcasts, the USFL blew opportunities to monopolize the sports-viewing public by allowing Saturday and Sunday kickoffs to go up against NBA, NHL, PGA Tour, and European soccer events, in spite of the apparent flexibility of an 8-team ledger in the same stadium with no historically ingrained schedule, and despite the sports calendar thinning down in the late spring as always. Perhaps stand-alone prime time TV showcases are still considered a dodgy choice for fledgling minor leagues ever since the gambit went legendarily badly for NBC and the original XFL circa 20 years ago.

There’s also a “blind spot” in the USFL’s team branding decisions, namely that quite a few pigskin fans are going to glance at a handful of offseason headlines (since a spring football league’s “offseason” is, after all, everyone else’s season) and ask themselves if the USFL is going to make it more than 1 and 1/2 campaigns without folding first. Cities like “New Orleans” and “Michigan” are simply abstract branding titles for United States Football League teams until if-and-when all 8+ clubs appear in their “hometowns” in front of actual fans there; the semifinal playoff champion “Philadelphia Stars” might as well be called the Honolulu Coconuts. But as a result, reporters are posting stories intended as USFL optimism, such as “USFL Will Continue in 2 to 4 Cities” without realizing what that headline means to a lot of casuals…Oh, snap, they’re already downsizing from 8 teams to 4 teams.” 

Newbies who like what they see in the USFL Championship Game this Sunday can rest assured that “Cities” in the headline simply refers to football fields in various “USFL towns,” which aren’t really USFL towns at all for the time being. As for whether the USFL can gin-up any more excitement for next year’s “2 to 4” venue regular-season schedule is an open question.

Speaking of the upcoming title tilt, it’s ironic that – for all the absurdity of the “town” branding of USFL clubs this year – the Philadelphia Stars will go into Sunday’s clash with the unique disadvantage of facing a team with an actual hometown, an honest-to-goodness ticket buying fan base, and a real life stadium that the Birmingham Stallions are nearly unbeaten in, even if they’re only 1-0 at Sunday’s venue of Hall of Fame Stadium.

But the USFL’s bosses did one thing very correctly, engineering a “parlay-buster” 4-team playoff round that was bound to produce some sort of favorite vs underdog finale. This weekend’s USFL Championship Game has just enough of a David-and-Goliath feel to make the pregame punditry and the betting odds intriguing, without putting a truly mismatched game on the gridiron.

Birmingham Stallions vs Philadelphia Stars: 2022 USFL Championship Game Preview, Odds, and Best Wager

For at least the early installment of last Saturday’s playoffs, the optimistic point-total predictions of sportsbooks were thrashed by another pair of proud USFL defenses.

The Philadelphia Stars’ upset 19-14 victory over the New Jersey Generals included around 550 combined yards of total offense, and just 32 complete passes for 0 TDs. WagerBop has praised the Philadelphia Stars’ dynamic offense as an underrated unit, but the Stars’ defense has proven more than just a scrappy ball-hawking operation en route to a berth in the USFL Championship Game.

Last Saturday’s late playoff scrum provided thrills aplenty, vindicating bright Over/Under predictions within half an hour of game-clock. The New Orleans Breakers challenged the favored Birmingham Stallions throughout a spectacular 1st half that produced 5 touchdowns at Hall of Fame Stadium. Victor Bolden Jr. of the Stallions put Birmingham on top for good with a first-ever USFL kick return TD with just over a minute left in the 2nd quarter. Things settled down in the 2nd half as the Stallions controlled the ball on long drives and prevailed 31-17.

Birmingham would be a wide favorite over Philadelphia in Sunday’s championship game if only the margins-of-victory from Saturday were considered. But when looking at the season on aggregate, Las Vegas seems shy to handicap Philly and Birmingham a full TD apart. FanDuel Sportsbook offering the 10-1 Stallions at (-195) odds next to the Stars’ (+165) moneyline in a title tilt with a (45.5) point O/U mark.

Handicappers are impressed by Birmingham QB J’Mar Smith, who was more accurate through the air while playing one of his best games of the season on Saturday. On the flip side, opposing Case Cookus’ emergence behind center helps to make the Stars a more dangerous opponent than the team which lost to the Stallions 30-17 back in May.

The betting public could also lean toward betting Philadelphia’s (+4.5) point spread for the USFL Championship Game due to the sharp ball-hawking tendency of the Stars’ defense. Points have been at a premium in the USFL all season, making the points-off-turnovers statistic even more crucial for a big game.

Spring pigskin analysts may argue that Birmingham’s defense is a touch more physical, deeper when faced with injuries, and more likely to dominate a low-scoring game on Sunday. But even the relatively efficient Stallions have struggled to punch long drives into the end zone, producing a scenario in which the less-physical but play-making defense could overcome a deficit in yards-allowed to give Philly’s offense more winning chances.

Birmingham could be poised to make just as much hay on defense, however, thanks to the presence of former Dolphin cornerback Tee Hayes in the Stallions’ defensive backfield. Hayes had a monster performance against New Orleans on Saturday, intercepting a pass, defending 3 other passes, making 5 solo tackles, and forcing a fumble.

Given that a fearsome front-7 is likely to create more INT-opportunities for a secondary over the long haul, Hayes must be salivating to face Cookus, a player who largely disappointed from the pocket while saving Saturday’s win with his feet.

Yes, the blog has maintained that Smith’s accuracy would be tested in the postseason, with Birmingham’s outcome potentially riding on its weakest link in a 2-minute drill scenario. But if Cookus’ meek stats from last weekend portend another shaky outing from the pocket, the Stallion pass rush and defensive secondary could be poised to make such a crucial difference on Sunday evening that most of the “fireworks” come as part of a celebratory postgame for the non-stressed Birmingham Stallions.

Hopefully, the USFL will spring for Class A fireworks and not a bunch of Roman Candles. They’ve got a whole summer, fall, and winter to gather-up funds for the next go-around…and try to produce at least 1 more team that can match the Stallions.

WagerBop’s Pick: Birmingham Stallions (-195) or ATS (-4.5)