UFC Fight Night 140: Neil Magny vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio Betting Guide

The UFC is traveling to Buenos Aires, Argentina, for the first time in their 25-year history this weekend, and the fight card kind of sucks.

But one of the best parts about betting on sports is that it doesn’t need to be exciting to make a profit.

Don’t get us wrong, the headlining fight between Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Neil Magny has the potential to be a memorable battle, but the rest of the card isn’t exactly what you’d call “can’t miss” action.

But all of this doesn’t matter because, in many ways, the less attention a fight or fight card gets from the public, the less inclined Las Vegas might be to ensure that their lines are perfect. With less action, there’s less risk. And that means there’s more opportunity for us.

The same goes for other sports, the Super Bowl, for example, attracts the biggest sports bets, but that doesn’t mean it has the most value for sharp sports bettors.

We’ve gone ahead and studied the entire UFC Fight Night 140 fight card to bring you actionable betting advice and strategies for this weekend.

Here’s the main card for UFC Fight Night 140:

Main Card

• Neil Magny vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (🔥 💰)
• Ricardo Lamas vs. Darren Elkins
• Khalil Rountree Jr. vs. Johnny Walker
• Cezar Ferreira vs. Ian Heinisch
• Guido Cannetti vs. Marlon Vera
• Cynthia Calvillo vs. Poliana Botelho (💰)

Prelims

• Michel Prazeres vs. Bartosz Fabinski
• Alexandra Pantoja vs. Ulka Sasaki
• Humberto Bandenay vs. Austin Arnett
• Laureano Staropoli vs. Hector Aldana

Early Prelims

• Devin Powell vs. Jesus Pinedo
• Nad Narimani vs. Anderson Dos Santos (💰)

🔥 = Must-watch fight 💰 = Betting opportunity

As always, we’ll be bringing you the same bets that we’re placing this weekend.

Let’s begin.

Neil Magny vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

This main event is a good one.

Neil Magny will be looking to make it three wins in a row when he faces Santiago Ponzinibbio, who is now undefeated in his last six fights.

Magny is relatively well-rounded and that means he does everything quite well. On that note, though, he isn’t spectacular in any one area and often relies on outlasting his opponent and beating them throughout the three rounds (or more) of a fight.

On the other hand, we have Ponzinibbio who is a power puncher capable of knocking people down and out with one clean right hand. We saw it against Gunnar Nelson, and we saw it against Court McGee; Ponzinibbio is a seriously dangerous fighter.

Best Odds For Neil Magny vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

• Neil Magny: +250 (Bet365)
• Santiago Ponzinibbio: -250 (5Dimes)

The odds are in Ponzinibbio’s favor which clearly illustrates that the bookmakers and the public are relying on the Argentinian to land his right hand. This belief is further backed by the odds for Ponzinibbio by KO/TKO (-120), which suggest that this is the odds-on scenario in this main event.

But let’s break it down and find the +EV betting selection for this fight.

The more and more we analyze this contest, it seems like Magny is almost certainly going to take some of Ponzinibbio’s best shots. For some fighters, that’s enough reason to back against them. For Magny, though, who has shown an ability to withstand punishment and eventually work his way back into a contest and score a come from a behind victory (like he did against Hector Lombard), we need to consider that he can take some of his opponent’s best strikes. But we also need to consider that he often finds himself being tagged by these power punches, as well.

Arguably the clearest path to victory for Magny is to showcase his durability and outlast Ponzinibbio through the middle rounds before eventually taking over with his decent clinch control, great footwork and movement, and also his long-range striking.

However, we are asking a lot of Magny to be able to keep his back off the cage and not allow Ponzinibbio to throw his wild lunging hooks from all angles.

Before jumping to conclusions, though, we must account for the discrepancy that we uncovered through our statistical analysis.

Statistically speaking, Neil Magny holds major advantages over his opponent. With 72% striking accuracy (vs. 53%), 2.04 strikes absorbed per minute (vs. 4.01), and 2.83 takedown average at 47% accuracy (vs. 0.64 at 44%), it’s clear that we can’t write off Magny’s talents in this fight.

All things considered, the straight odds do seem wide, and there’s a reasonable argument to be made for selecting Magny to win at odds of +250 just for value alone.

But the most attractive betting selection on offer is Total Rounds – Under 2.5 at odds of -132 at 5Dimes.

This selection likely accounts for a Ponzinibbio KO/TKO victory (probably in rounds one and two) while giving us some insurance against an early finish from Magny.

Bet on Total Rounds – Under 2.5 at 5Dimes (-132)

Cynthia Calvillo vs. Poliana Botelho

The first fight on the UFC Fight Night 140 main card is also one of the better ones.

Cynthia Calvillo will return to action for the first time this year. She’ll be up against Poliana Botelho, who is on a roll after a brilliant first-round stoppage in her last fight.

When Calvillo sprung onto the scene in early 2017 and scored back-to-back rear-naked choke wins in a little over one month, mixed martial arts fans all over the world started to take notice. With the attitude of the Diaz brothers and the skills to go with it, Calvillo was seemingly destined for greatness.

However, an unimpressive victory against Joanne Calderwood just a few months later, followed by a defeat to Carla Esparza had everyone scratching their heads.

And then there’s Botelho, whose trajectory seems to be the polar opposite. After an uninspiring decision victory over Pearl Gonzalez (who Calvillo submitted), she followed up with a brilliant 33-second KO/TKO win in Santiago, Chile most recently.

Best Odds For Cynthia Calvillo vs. Poliana Botelho

• Cynthia Calvillo: +163 (Pinnacle)
• Poliana Botelho: -147 (SportBet)

Recency bias plays a huge factor here. Botelho is fresh off that spectacular win, and we haven’t seen much of Calvillo for a while now. Let’s not forget what each fighter brings to the table.

Calvillo will likely need to get this fight to the mat to win. Botelho is extremely dangerous while standing and uses her devastating Muay Thai style striking to rip vicious body kicks. Calvillo isn’t one of the best stand-up fighters in the division and will occasionally look lost on the feet, so there’s a fair chance that Botelho can find the KO/TKO finish again if she can deny the takedown for long enough.

Likewise, if Botelho is taken to the mat by Calvillo, there’s a significant chance that the Team Alpha Male fighter can take the back and secure her favorite rear-naked choke. Can Botelho defend the submission? We haven’t seen evidence on tape yet, but her training at Nova Uniao would undoubtedly help.

Both fighters have clear paths to victory and it’s not necessary for either fighter to grind out a decision win.

Add the fact that Cynthia Calvillo missed weight by two pounds (118-pounds) and could barely stand as she was suffering from dehydration at the time of the weigh-in, and it starts to seem very likely that this one won’t last the distance.

Our pick is Poliana Botelho to win by KO/TKO in round two. But again, the best play here is to instead bank on this fight lasting less than 2.5 rounds. That way, we can safeguard against the always-possible Cynthia Calvillo choke.

Bet on Total Rounds – Under 2.5 at Pinnacle (+235)

Nad Narimani vs. Anderson Dos Santos

It’s not very often we’ll skip all the way down to the very first fight of the night to find betting value, but that’s exactly what we’re doing this weekend.

The first fight of the UFC Fight Pass Prelims pits Nad Narimani against Anderson Dos Santos in a bout that is likely to be entirely one-sided in favor of either fighter.

Best Odds For Nad Narimani vs. Anderson Dos Santos

• Nad Narimani: -345 (Pinnacle)
• Anderson Dos Santos: +315 (5Dimes)

There aren’t many bettors who have complete confidence in Narimani after his UFC debut. He scored a unanimous decision victory, but it was far from impressive.

But we strongly believe that it’s vital to analyze a fighters entire body of work and not just their latest outing.

And that’s how we discovered the value in this fight.

If we look past Narimani’s win against Taha in the UFC and against Paddy Pimblett in Cage Warriors, we start to see a fighter who is more likely to stand and trade with an opponent rather than resorting to a takedown-heavy strategy.

Surprisingly, in contrast to what we saw in his UFC debut, Narimani looks like a fight finisher who intends to get rid of his opponent before the time is up. Against Jeremy Petley, for example, Narimani walked forward and threw bombs.

So, why didn’t we see this against Khalid Taha? It was clear that Narimani identified a safe and effective path to victory and chose to pursue it – and it worked.

Against Anderson dos Santos this weekend, though, Narimani will surely have confidence that he can finish his opponent inside the distance.

Despite entering this fight on a three-fight winning streak, Dos Santos isn’t exactly what we’d refer to as a UFC-caliber fighter (although that standard seems to be continually downgraded). Arguably the biggest win of his career was when he managed to stop Ricky Simon in the second round with a rear-naked choke, despite entering the fight as a significant underdog – just like he will this time.

If you’ve never seen that fight, you’d likely be impressed with the outcome for Dos Santos. Upon review, however, Simon outworked Dos Santos for almost 95 percent of the fight before eventually being clipped by a surprising strike in the second round. Simon was giving Dos Santos the beatdown and he had no answers.

Of course, we must consider that Dos Santos is obviously durable and able to withstand punishment, but the opportunities for Narimani are significant in this one.

On the feet, Dos Santos throws unconvincing punches and lacks effective striking defense. Narimani should eat him alive as long as this stays standing. And if Narimani wants to take Dos Santos to the mat and beat him up down there, it’s likely we’ll see Narimani maintain the position and outwork him before eventually securing the finish.

We find ourselves again leaning to the Total Rounds – Under 2.5 selection here for this fight for those reasons.

We’re also insured against a Dos Santos victory in the early rounds, which wouldn’t be all that surprising considering his often reckless style.

Bet on Total Rounds – Under 2.5 at 5 Dimes (+122)

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Best Bets for UFC Fight Night 140

• Neil Magny vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
  • Total Rounds – Under 2.5 (-132 at 5Dimes)
• Cynthia Calvillo vs. Poliana Botelho
  • Total Rounds – Under 2.5 (+235 at Pinnacle)
• Nad Narimani vs. Anderson dos Santos
  • Total Rounds – Under 2.5 (+122 at 5Dimes)