XFL Predictions: Week 2 Previews, St. Louis at Seattle O/U Point Total, and Houston vs Arlington ATS Pick

The XFL laid a smack-down on other minor leagues last weekend. XFL teams drew NFL-sized crowds to several cities, looked organized and sternly coached on the gridiron, and made so many exciting plays that Daily Fantasy sharks and optimistic point-total gamblers competed to see who could take home the bigger stakes. Previous versions of minor-league pigskin on the national stage looked a lot like NFL preseason competition. XFL football has developed its own style already, and in Week 1 dropped a People’s Elbow on the USFL with lively scoring, great crowd moments, and comeback triumphs.

A fateful fumble in the Red Zone made Seattle coach Jim Haslett angry enough to throw “tables, ladders, and chairs” in Week 1, but one of The Rock’s other “XFL 3.0” teams debuted with 4th-quarter heroics that could only occur in the new spring league.

The St. Louis Battlehawks trailed 15-3 with about 1:00 remaining, the kind of scenario that would always lead to a loss for any minor league offense without the explosion and teamwork of NFL skill-players. But an ex-wrestler’s league rulebook states that a team can “Hulk Up” with 9-point touchdowns. STL quarterback A.J. McCarron took one glance at the timekeeper’s table – ahem – the game clock, and began throwing hell-for-leather bombs at the San Antonio end zone. Moments later, St. Louis scored a 3-point conversion after TD, then utilized the XFL’s newfangled “4th-and-15” possession rules to keep the ball for a winning drive.

Listen carefully, and the sound you’ll hear next is a chorus of YouTubers begging the NFL to adopt the XFL’s tactics and take notes, especially when it comes to the comeback-friendly XFL rulebook, and The Rock’s talent at getting casual fans to buy tickets for games even when the media is listless about the event. It can be easy to forget how dismal the USFL and Alliance of American Football’s spring games looked in comparison, and how the USFL did not even attempt to host games in each of its 8 cities’ potential venues in 2022. It makes the United States Football League a shadow of both its 1980s incarnation and the spirited XFL when it comes to creating a fun atmosphere and getting some crowd’s roars into it.

It’s possible that moneyline bettors will be found biting their fingernails when a defense-oriented XFL team is nursing a late advantage of anything less than 37 points. Truthfully, though, any underrating of XFL offenses has occurred thanks to regular old-fashioned football reasons, not because of the XFL’s comeback-friendly rules.

For example, WagerBop expected the Battlehawks to take a step backward at QB without Jordan Ta’amu taking snaps in 2023. McCarron is a leadership-focused player who has never dealt with a weak supporting cast around him, which seemed to make the Alabama product a poor choice to wager in a spring league surely marked by sloppy play and dismal blocking. McCarron’s last-second performance from Week 1 tears that forecast to shreds, while cementing for the foreseeable future at least one XFL team’s quarterback role.

There’s not much “sloppy” to go around in what has been a sterling “XFL 3.0” debut so far. Teams are producing turnovers, but offenses are manufacturing points, and the league’s comparatively lax contact rules are leading to remarkable plays on the boundary. Week 1’s outcomes could push the O/U lines over (40) points for the XFL.

Will they? Following an exciting debut for The Rock’s new league, sportsbooks have answered by body-slamming any notion that XFL scoreboards are about to sizzle in spring. The point-total lines for Week 2, along with most of the XFL’s gambling odds for Week 2, stand about where they were a week ago. Bookmakers are clearly concerned about overreacting, as they did in 2020, to a tiny sample size of XFL kickoffs.

St. Louis Battlehawks at Seattle Sea Dragons (Thursday, February 23)

The Seattle Sea Dragons blew their chance to go 1-0 via a Red Zone turnover with 19 seconds left, while the St. Louis Battlehawks’ unlikely road triumph went viral enough to inspire a week’s worth of betting speculation. FanDuel’s odds-makers, however, have taken a cold shower on STL’s comeback-heroics, casting Seattle as the site’s (-160) and (-2.5) favorite.

But, the real ice comes from the sportsbook’s (36.5) point-total number for Sea Dragons vs Battlehawks, representative of 4 more XFL Over/Under lines set below (40) total points for the next round of games. Is the XFL about to “revert” to a USFL-like landscape, featuring nothing but cautious offense and defensive clashes?

Probably not in Seattle, given McCarron’s surprising debut as a late-game gunslinger as opposed to a game-manager. The characteristics of XFL football in 2023 appear to trend toward talented offenses either scoring or getting stripped and picked off by an aggressive field of defenses willing to take chances on 3rd down. Without as many punts littering the gridiron, there may be more than a “small sample size” behind the lively totals of the XFL.

Plus, any notion that a “short-rest week” will impact St. Louis or Seattle negatively is a worthless angle, since the rosters are fresh and will be looking forward to the attention that comes from playing a weekday contest in prime time. Players shined under pressure in the XFL’s debut, and in Week 2 fans should expect the same.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (36.5)

DC Defenders at Vegas Vipers (Saturday, February 25)

Sin City’s newest “home team” the Vegas Vipers were accident-prone in their loss to Arlington, placing Rod Woodson’s well-hyped team in danger of becoming the “Michigan Panthers” of the XFL 3.0. However, the Vipers are still a (-160) moneyline favorite over the DC Defenders at FanDuel Sportsbook, thanks in part to the perception that the Defenders were lucky to escape with their debut win over the Sea Dragons.

DC gained less than 200 yards in its victory over Seattle, anchoring the sportsbook’s cautious (36.5) Over/Under line on a little more solid ground. We still think Jordan Ta’amu is the best quarterback returning to spring football in 2023, and the Defenders enjoy his services.

WagerBop’s Pick: Defenders ATS (+3.5)

San Antonio Brahmas at Orlando Guardians (Sunday, February 26)

Week 2’s biggest opening-odds underdog in the XFL is the Orlando Guardians, and given the events of Week 1 it’s not a surprise to see that the Guardians remain a (+3.5) point-spread pick at home against the visiting 0-1 San Antonio Brahmas. Paxton Lynch, after throwing an INT that hampered Orlando against Houston, was yanked out of Orlando’s starting lineup quicker than an NHL goaltender who fell behind by 3 goals for Scotty Bowman. But the team actually began by taking the lead with a touchdown, making the Houston Roughnecks’ eventual 33-12 win look even more dominating.

Pass blocking did break down from time to time in the league’s latest debut, and the Guardians were the worst offender, giving up 7 sacks to the physical Roughnecks. Far from giving the XFL’s offenses credit this early in the season, FanDuel’s slightly higher (38.5) Over/Under line for Guardians vs Brahmas is probably factoring the San Antonio defense’s potential mayhem-making into account as much as either side’s offensive point-scoring.

WagerBop’s Pick: No Recommended Bet

Arlington Renegades at Houston Roughnecks (Sunday, February 26)

The Houston Roughnecks deserve their (-3.5) point-spread line over the visiting Arlington Renegades after such an epic beatdown of Orlando in Week 1. But the sportsbook’s risk vs reward odds on Week 2’s final kickoff bear a closer examination. The Renegades, sure to become a natural blood rival against a fellow Lone Star State like the Roughnecks, are a fat (+160) pick on the moneyline vs Houston’s skinny (-190) odds. The Roughnecks’ point spread market is also extremely chintzy compared to 1-to-1 action on the Renegades.

Is defense so cherished in spring football that the best defensive team always earns the action? It’s not a coincidence that Houston is currently FanDuel’s betting-action leader in odds on an XFL title. But with the Renegades breathing down the Roughnecks’ neck in the same market, bookmakers might find that they’ve given a rivalry game too wide of a handicap – even without those silly “(+12)” XFL spreads from the pre-COVID era.

WagerBop’s Pick: Renegades (+3.5)