Premier League Picks for Matchday 25: Cherries vs Sky Blues O/U Forecast, and Why Now’s the Time to Pick Liverpool

So, that whole episode didn’t take long. The idea that Manchester City would follow its 3-1 win over Arsenal by romping to another English Premier League points-crown has proven to be erroneous, at least if last weekend’s outcomes are any sign.

In the wake of Arsenal dropping 3 points to Sky Blues, Gunners did more than make a statement in the next round. Arsenal showed on Saturday that the attack from Emirates Stadium grounds might just be livelier and more consistent than Sky Blues’ starting-11 in this cycle. Mikel Arteta’s team endured a pair of early goals from host Aston Villa that got a formidable foe’s supporters roaring, then erupted for 3 goals in the latter half to procure a 4-2 victory. Meanwhile, City’s early goal against Nottingham Forest would have portended a Sky Blues blow-out in any other recent cycle, but not on Saturday. Nottingham’s exhilarating goal in the late stage of the 2nd half came at the perfect time to stun City out of 2 points, and relinquish a brief share of the EPL table lead that caused FanDuel’s odds to lose the plot.

Amid the 2022 World Cup break and beyond, EPL bettors clung stubbornly to the defending winner Manchester City as their favored championship pick despite numerous angles to the contrary. Late in winter, it was Gunners’ turn to become the “stubborn” favorite despite evidence that Arsenal’s reign could go glimmering. When the Premier League’s leaders fell victim to one of 2022-23’s pesky EPL underdogs who seem to produce draws in every scenario (Brentford F.C.’s double-digit draw total is exceeded only by Newcastle this season), bettors rushed to take Sky Blues at shorter than 1-to-1 odds to prevail over the league again. But following Arsenal’s tie against Brentford and 2-goal loss to Man City, the outcomes of EPL matches have once again become inscrutable.

As the smoke clears prior to Matchweek 25, the preseason EPL favorites are holding the edge on FanDuel’s odds board, though not by much. Manchester City is drawing picks at (-110) or slightly shorter than 1-to-1, while Arsenal is a “straight” 1-to-1 pick at (+100). Manchester United is the only viable dark-horse at (+1900) to climb in the standings.

Premier League Game Odds, Previews, and Picks for Matchday 25

Fulham F.C. vs Wolverhampton (Friday, February 24)

Fulham is fast becoming a frustrating money-line pick, with the caveat that it is Cottagers whom they are picking to lose, not to win. Cottagers’ stat sheet from last weekend’s 1-0 victory over Brighton & Hove Albion was a clue as to why the club has appeared to have “reversion to form” stamped all over it. Brighton made hay out of their 66% ball possession, attempting 21 total shots and manufacturing almost every significant chance of the back half in a long-term scoreless deadlock scenario. Still, at the end of the day, there was an upstart promoted team holding 38 points and, presently, a 2023-24 UEFA qualifying position.

Not that underdog gamblers didn’t bite most of their nails off. Fulham’s dramatic win was a classic circle-the-wagons effort in which Brighton appeared to have scored at least once before getting flagged for an offside. Cottagers’ back line, which had appeared dodgy in the opening half, made a canny move to fall-in forward against a late-game crosser that left Seagulls significantly offside through no fault of their own. Moments later, Manor Solomon scored after a rare but effective counter from Fulham finally brought the ball roaring another way on the pitch. Fantasy soccer GMs who drafted Cottagers’ keeper Bernd Leno simply enjoyed the bout by contrast, since Leno’s many expert saves are racking up Fantasy points at a faster rate than those produced by GKs with elite lineups.

Fulham cannot remain a weekly betting underdog at this rate. Yet there is still an element of skepticism in Cottagers’ (+130) money-line odds to defeat Wolverhampton (+220) in Friday’s lone EPL kickoff. Wolves aren’t nearly the commodity that Seagulls are proving to be this season. In fact, Wolverhampton is just 3 points clear of relegation-territory on the EPL table after dropping a fixture at Molineux Stadium to promote AFC Bournemouth.

The clean-sheet loss confirms a running angle that 2022-23 includes Wolves outcomes that just would not occur in a normal season. Of course, the same could be said for Cottagers, standing in 6th place in February after toiling last year in English Championship.

We seriously doubt that the odds are accurate given Wolverhampton’s struggles and Fulham’s clear momentum.

WagerBop’s Pick: Fulham (+130)

Leeds United vs Southampton (Saturday, February 24)

If the odds for Fulham are strangely long for a top-third team, then Leeds is still drawing some notably optimistic odds on occasion for a club with just 19 points earned on the season. Leeds United is a (+100) or exact 1-to-1 money-line pick for Saturday’s bout with visiting Southampton, while Southampton is merely (+270) odds or nearly a 3-to-1 pick.

Admittedly, Elland Road’s next guest is among the most favorable Peacocks could have drawn after dropping 3 points to Everton. Saints are mired right alongside Leeds at the very bottom of the EPL table, along with the bitter knowledge that Southampton must repeat Everton’s feat and beat Leeds United or stand behind previously cellar-dwelling Everton, Bournemouth, and 2 other promoted clubs in what could be a dire year.

WagerBop’s Pick: Over (2.5) (+100)

West Ham United vs Nottingham Forest (Saturday, February 24)

Tricky Trees of Nottingham Forest did not add much value to the brand last weekend, at least not in bookmakers’ eyes. Not only does FanDuel expect Nottingham to revert back to form on Saturday and lose to West Ham United, but it appears that odds-setters did not consider Nottingham’s strength of opposition this week, or the step down it represents. In 2023, Hammers are yet another long-time EPL team in grave danger of relegation.

Maybe supporters of City Ground should not be too upset about Tricky Trees’ (+400) odds against host Hammers (-130), since the betting public does view West Ham as a squad that could be turning a corner again. Hammers had a miserable return to league competition following the 2022 World Cup. January and February have created a new narrative, as West Ham put together one solid performance after another. West Ham fatigued in the 2nd half and lost to Tottenham Spurs last weekend, but took points away from Newcastle and Chelsea in heartening EPL fixtures just before the Tottenham defeat.

Hammers are a (+110) prop bet to procure a clean sheet (“Nottingham to Score No Goals”) despite Tricky Trees’ resilient attacking performance against the elite back-line of City.

WagerBop’s Pick: Nottingham Forest ATS (+1) (+110)

Leicester City vs Arsenal F.C. (Saturday, February 24)

The odds on Arsenal (-145) to beat Leicester City have been hard-earned over the past weeks, no matter how far Foxes have fallen as an EPL contender. Gunners have done more than just make a strong statement in the wake of dropping 3 points to Sky Blues. Arsenal showed on Saturday that the attack from Emirates Stadium grounds might just be livelier and more consistent than Manchester City’s starting-11 in this season.

Gunners endured a pair of early goals from host Aston Villa that got the formidable foe’s supporters roaring, then erupted for 3 goals in the latter half to procure a 4-2 victory. Meanwhile, Sky Blues’ early goal against Tricky Trees would have portended a City blow-out in any other recent cycle, but not on Saturday. Nottingham’s exhilarating goal in the late stage of the 2nd half came at the perfect time to stun Man City out of 2 points, and relinquish a brief share of the EPL table lead that caused FanDuel’s odds to go kooky.

Arsenal has worked through the most difficult span of the winter’s EPL schedule and boasts an opportunity to rack up a fresh points lead over Man City via upcoming league matches against Everton, Bournemouth, and Leeds. But it is hard to think that Gunners are simply “home-free” against Foxes this weekend, given that James Maddison’s improved attack scored 10 combined tallies in 3 league bouts not long ago this winter, in the process taking 4 surprise points from Brighton and Tottenham Hotspur.

WagerBop’s Pick: Leicester City to Score Exactly 1 Goal (Prop Bet) (+140)

AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester City (Saturday, February 24)

Bettors should note that AFC Bournemouth is “only” a (+950) underdog pick against guest Manchester City on Saturday. On the one hand, that’s a paltry money-line market for a team that has only lost one EPL match since over a month ago. Cherries are the type of Premiership brand that cannot afford to take any bout lightly, and yet Bournemouth’s backline appeared to hit rock bottom in a 4-2 3rd-Round FA Cup loss to Burnley F.C., using the embarrassment as a reason to come together and develop astoundingly improved form without the football throughout the winter of 2023. Bournemouth eye-poked Newcastle United with an early goal in Saturday, Feb. 12th’s 1-1 draw with Newcastle, then defended the inevitable Cherries rally so well that parts of the 2nd half turned into an impasse.

On the other hand, we are used to finding Sky Blues’ cellar opponents offered at 10-to-1 or longer odds to win at FanDuel. City did not charge ahead of Arsenal on the table as was expected over the past 2 weeks, and Pep Guardiola still misses John Stones on the back line. Sky Blues also face 3 across 3 bouts competitions in the next 7 days as of press time, an angle that makes parlaying a (-360)’s favorite’s line a very gutsy gambling move.

Manchester City’s Kevin de Bruyne is a (+190) or less than 2-to-1 prop pick to score a goal against Bournemouth, a nod to the midfielder’s enduring legacy even in midst of a maddening stretch of fixtures.

WagerBop’s Pick: Under (3.5) (-170)

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool F.C. (Saturday, February 24)

Liverpool’s weak showing against Real Madrid in the 2022-23 Champions League knock-out round could discourage short-term Premier League bettors. It could also make long-term speculators salivate over the prospect of a spring in which Reds have no international contests to distract them from the UK.

As for the EPL arena, as WagerBop has been reporting, Liverpool’s improved form should nonetheless lead to a rush on Reds’ futures bets to earn a top-4 placement. That has come to pass already as Reds’ top-4 odds begin shrinking toward 1-to-1 risk and reward following a winter of woes and skepticism, yet effects on the club’s game-to-game odds as usual will be somewhat less trackable.

Matchweek 24 was not just impactful to odds on an EPL champion. Reds’ form appeared light-years more rehabilitated than the effort of Blues on a day that could signal Liverpool’s turnaround and Chelsea’s stumble toward an even more dismal finish than anticipated. Chelsea’s attack was not stunted by Southampton’s pressing on Saturday, considering that Chelsea earned 8 corner kicks to Southampton’s pair of attempts, and endured 25 opposing fouls as Mason Mount’s forward unit raced up the wing on possessions. Yet a result of Saints 1, Blues 0 is hardly encouraging for Chelsea supporters, who can assess that a team in danger of a bottom-half finish is looking the part. Reds, in the meantime, showed flashes of its elite quality as Liverpool took a 2-0 lead over Newcastle United and never looked back, earning 6 points from a pair of clean-sheet domestic wins prior to taking on Real Madrid in this week’s UEFA Champions League Round-of-16 action.

Reds are already a 1-to-2.5 favorite to defeat Wolves in a make-up EPL kickoff scheduled for March 1st. This Saturday, though, the money-line pick on Liverpool will tempt users to pick it straightforwardly, without a parlay, given bookmakers’ wary money-line of just (-140).

Crystal Palace (+390) is clearly seen as the more dangerous of Liverpool’s next 2 foes, given that Wolverhampton’s encouraging outcomes since the World Cup are mostly considered a mirage. Eagles, in contrast, have won 6 times this season, and stand in 12th place alone.

Eagles bettors may be in danger themselves, though, if another trend goes overlooked going into Saturday’s evening kickoff at Selhurst Park. Put simply, no FanDuel user who has wagered a UEFA-level team against Palace in 2022-23 has lost her pick. The repertoire of Palace wins this cycle is entirely confined to mid-tier EPL opponents and potential relegation victims. Eagles have been punished by nearly every top-half team they faced in a season that is missing CPFC’s surprise outbursts of offense from last year.

WagerBop’s Pick: Liverpool (-140)