There were 1,230 regular season games in the 2022-23 NBA season. 79 of those were tied after 4 quarters and required overtime. Of those 79, 10 even went into double overtime.
Add it up and that’s 59,485 minutes of NBA action which beats last season’s total by 110 minutes (about 2 and a half game’s worth). And now we begin what amounts to an entire 2nd season – the NBA Playoffs.
Four full rounds of best-of-7 series takes about 2 months and is extremely draining for players, coaches, referees, fans, and basketball bettors alike. It’s tough to follow every single minute of every single game, but fortunately, you don’t have to. That’s our job.
We’ve been closely watching games, scrutinizing coaches’ words in their press conferences, poring over roster moves and rotation changes, identifying hot betting trends, and incorporating historical data to deliver the most complete NBA Playoffs betting guide on the internet.
For the first time ever, all four NBA teams in California have made the playoffs in the same season. pic.twitter.com/4YmlgRQNWr
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 12, 2023
This is Wagerbop’s annual NBA Playoffs Betting Guide – the most comprehensive NBA Playoffs betting guide on the internet. You, my friend, are receiving this gem for free!
The information contained in this guide cannot be found in one place anywhere else. Wagerbop is very keen on finding current profitable betting trends and passing them on to you – our loyal readers. Be sure to check out our complete collection of NBA betting systems for even more bookie-beating content.
Where do we get our stats? FiveThirtyEight is an awesome source for data of all kinds – sports and otherwise. Stathead is a well-known and highly-trusted tool in the world of sports for digging up detailed team and player query info. Killersports‘ SDQL and trend tools make sports betting research a breeze. TeamRankings is also a spectacular site for team stats and betting trends.
NBA Playoffs: Home Teams ATS and SU
“Sure, the home field is an advantage but so is having a lot of talent.”
– Dan Marino
A common question about the NBA Playoffs – or any sport’s postseason – is whether a strong home-court advantage exists.
We pulled the past 10 postseasons’ worth of data to properly answer this question. Note that the 2019-20 postseason is omitted as this was the COVID bubble year and all games were played at neutral sites.
| Year | ATS % | SU % | Avg Line |
| 2021-22 | 51.6% | 60.2% | -3.2 |
| 2020-21 | 52.7% | 53.9% | -2.6 |
| 2019-20 | – | – | – |
| 2018-19 | 51.9% | 55.1% | -3.7 |
| 2017-18 | 56.2% | 63.0% | -4.0 |
| 2016-17 | 55.7% | 61.5% | -3.5 |
| 2015-16 | 59.3% | 64.7% | -3.7 |
| 2014-15 | 46.9% | 57.3% | -3.5 |
| 2013-14 | 44.8% | 57.5% | -3.7 |
| 2012-13 | 43.5% | 55.3% | -3.9 |
| Total | 49.7% | 60.9% | -3.5 |
Blindly betting home teams in the NBA playoffs is a no-go. Some years they are slightly profitable – others not. Overall, that ATS win rate of 49.7% falls well short of the magic 52.4% break-even point for spread bets.
The formula in that linked article can be used to determine the percentage a team needs to win SU to break-even with a -3.5 average line. It’s about 63%. This means moneyline bettors would also be losing money if they blindly took the home team each playoff game.
A 49.7% win rate ATS puts us in no man’s land – an area in which neither side is profitable to bet thanks to the bookie juice. Road teams are winning ATS at a 50.3% clip – also a losing mark.
There is no advantage to be held from betting solely based on the location of the game. We need to continue digging. Let’s see if certain teams over perform at home. The next step is to see if individual teams are worth betting at home.
NBA Playoffs: Team-by-Team Records
Team-by-Team Home Records
Some NBA arenas might as well be fortresses. Road game in Boston? Bring earplugs. Need to win Game 7 in Golden State? Good luck.
Here is a look at who has held down home court since the 2013 Playoffs – sorted by amount of home playoff games. Of course, there were no home games in the 2020 NBA Playoffs.
| Team | # of Games | SU Record (%) | ATS Record (%) |
| Warriors | 78 | 62-16 (79.5%) | 43-25 (55.1%) |
| Celtics | 48 | 28-20 (58.3%) | 27-21 (56.2%) |
| Heat | 44 | 30-14 (68.2%) | 23-21 (52.3%) |
| Raptors | 43 | 19-24 (44.2%) | 25-18 (58.1%) |
| Cavaliers | 40 | 30-10 (75.0%) | 19-21 (47.5%) |
| Clippers | 38 | 18-20 (47.4%) | 14-24 (36.8%) |
| Bucks | 36 | 19-17 (52.8%) | 24-12 (66.7%) |
| Hawks | 33 | 19-14 (57.6%) | 16-17 (48.5%) |
| Thunder | 32 | 19-13 (59.4%) | 14-18 (43.8%) |
| Grizzlies | 30 | 17-13 (56.7%) | 16-11-3 (59.3%) |
| Sixers | 24 | 15-9 (62.5%) | 14-10 (58.3%) |
| Nets | 24 | 14-10 (58.3%) | 12-12 (50.0%) |
| Bulls | 19 | 5-14 (26.3%) | 4-14-1 (22.2%) |
| Suns | 18 | 13-5 (72.2%) | 12-6 (66.7%) |
| Nuggets | 18 | 10-8 (55.6%) | 7-11 (38.9%) |
| Pelicans | 10 | 5-5 (50.0%) | 6-4 (60.0%) |
| Knicks | 9 | 5-4 (55.6%) | 4-4-1 (50.0%) |
| Lakers | 6 | 2-4 (33.3%) | 1-5 (16.7%) |
| T-Wolves | 6 | 3-3 (50.0%) | 3-3 (50.0%) |
| Kings | – | – | – |
Of note here is that the Warriors and Celtics both win an exceptional amount of playoff games at home. Both are very profitable against the spread, too.
There are many good teams on this list who are simply overvalued when playing at home in the postseason and should be avoided. Note how the Heat, Clippers, Nets, Nuggets, and Lakers have all been losing bets ATS at home over the past 10 years.
Team-by-Team Road Records
It is also important to know which teams excel at playing away from home. Here are the numbers over the past 10 postseasons for those same teams when they are forced to travel – again, omitting the 2019-20 postseason which was played in a bubble.
| Team | # of Games | SU Record (%) | ATS Record (%) |
| Warriors | 70 | 40-30 (57.1%) | 41-29 (58.6%) |
| Celtics | 44 | 17-27 (38.6%) | 23-20-1 (53.5%) |
| Cavaliers | 43 | 25-18 (58.1%) | 24-18-1 (57.1%) |
| Heat | 40 | 18-22 (45.0%) | 20-20 (50.0%) |
| Raptors | 38 | 14-24 (36.8%) | 15-22-1 (40.5%) |
| Hawks | 37 | 13-24 (35.1%) | 16-21 (43.2%) |
| Bucks | 37 | 16-21 (43.2%) | 18-19 (48.6%) |
| Clippers | 35 | 14-21 (40.0%) | 19-16 (54.3%) |
| Thunder | 32 | 11-21 (34.4%) | 15-16-1 (48.4%) |
| Grizzlies | 32 | 11-21 (34.4%) | 15-17 (46.9%) |
| Nets | 23 | 5-18 (21.7%) | 12-11 (52.2%) |
| Sixers | 22 | 10-12 (45.5%) | 11-11 (50.0%) |
| Bulls | 21 | 10-11 (47.6%) | 13-8 (61.9%) |
| Suns | 17 | 8-9 (47.1%) | 8-9 (47.1%) |
| Nuggets | 17 | 4-13 (23.5%) | 6-11 (35.3%) |
| Pelicans | 11 | 4-7 (36.4%) | 8-3 (72.7%) |
| Knicks | 8 | 2-6 (25.0%) | 2-6 (25.0%) |
| T-Wolves | 6 | 1-5 (16.7%) | 3-3 (50.0%) |
| Lakers | 5 | 1-4 (20.0%) | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Kings | – | – | – |
The Warriors are just otherworldly – posting winning rates ATS both at home and on the road. This makes them practically invincible in a best-of-7 format. Jump on it if you can ever get + odds on Golden State in the playoffs.
NBA Playoffs: Favorites ATS and SU
“Life is never more fun than when you’re the underdog competing against the giants.”
– Ross Perot
The next logical step in our trend hunting is to see if either favorites or dogs win more frequently than they should in the NBA playoffs.
Below is a chart showing how favored teams have fared in each NBA postseason since 2012-13 – omitting results from 2019-20, per usual.
| Year | ATS % | SU % | Avg Line |
| 2021-22 | 57.0% | 67.7% | -4.7 |
| 2020-21 | 60.2% | 67.4% | -4.7 |
| 2019-20 | – | – | – |
| 2018-19 | 53.8% | 67.1% | -5.9 |
| 2017-18 | 61.2% | 76.2% | -6.0 |
| 2016-17 | 58.2% | 77.2% | -6.4 |
| 2015-16 | 60.0% | 74.1% | -6.5 |
| 2014-15 | 46.2% | 63.8% | -5.8 |
| 2013-14 | 42.4% | 56.3% | -5.0 |
| 2012-13 | 53.8% | 69.1% | -5.8 |
| Total | 54.8% | 68.7% | -5.6 |
Pretty solid winrate here for favored teams. Favorites are profitable ATS in 7 of the past 9 postseasons and 54.8% overall in that span.
Home Favorites in the NBA Playoffs
Narrowing our criteria, here are the numbers that home favorites have put up since the 2013 playoffs.
| Year | ATS % | SU % | Avg Line |
| 2021-22 | 56.1% | 69.7% | -5.5 |
| 2020-21 | 58.5% | 68.2% | -5.0 |
| 2019-20 | – | – | – |
| 2018-19 | 52.3% | 64.6% | -5.9 |
| 2017-18 | 60.7% | 80.3% | -6.6 |
| 2016-17 | 47.4% | 73.7% | -6.9 |
| 2015-16 | 63.9% | 78.7% | -7.1 |
| 2014-15 | 44.6% | 66.7% | -6.5 |
| 2013-14 | 42.6% | 58.8% | -5.6 |
| 2012-13 | 52.4% | 71.9% | -6.2 |
| Total | 53.2% | 70.1% | -6.1 |
Not bad, not bad. Here is where we can use some common sense: favorites overall are 54.8% winners. Home favorites are 53.2% winners. What does this mean about road favorites?
Road favorites are always the biggest winners of the NBA playoffs! Just as big home favorites tend to be overvalued – people sleep on the road team, even if they are good. Don’t be bashful. Throw a few units down on a solid road favorite and you’ll be pleasantly surprised.
Home Dogs in the NBA Playoffs
Although the sample size is much smaller, here are stats for home underdogs from the past 10 postseasons. Take a look.
| Year | ATS % | SU % | Avg Line |
| 2021-22 | 40.7% | 37.0% | +2.7 |
| 2020-21 | 34.8% | 34.8% | +3.9 |
| 2019-20 | – | – | – |
| 2018-19 | 38.5% | 21.4% | +5.6 |
| 2017-18 | 36.8% | 36.8% | +4.1 |
| 2016-17 | 13.6% | 13.6% | +5.3 |
| 2015-16 | 50.0% | 37.5% | +4.9 |
| 2014-15 | 50.0% | 43.5% | +4.0 |
| 2013-14 | 58.8% | 52.6% | +2.8 |
| 2012-13 | 41.2% | 41.2% | +4.1 |
| 2011-12 | 40.0% | 18.8% | +3.8 |
| Total | 40.2% | 35.6% | +4.1 |
40.2% is a terrible win rate. We knew home dogs were going to be bad, however, because we already determined that road favorites are +EV in the NBA playoffs.
NBA Playoffs: Over/Under (Totals) Betting
“Scoring isn’t the only thing in the game.”
– Connor McDavid
Sorry Connor, but if you’re betting NBA totals, scoring is literally the only thing that matters. Point spreads and moneylines are not the only bets available to playoff basketball lovers. Totals provide the same level of excitement and upside with the added bonus that you do not have to worry about trivialities like who wins the game.
Totals are binary. There are two outcomes – over or under. Here is a glimpse into the past 10 seasons of NBA Playoffs totals – excluding the COVID bubble playoffs, as always.
| Year | Over% | Under% |
| 2021-22 | 37.6% | 62.4% |
| 2020-21 | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| 2019-20 | – | – |
| 2018-19 | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| 2017-18 | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| 2016-17 | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| 2015-16 | 38.1% | 61.2% |
| 2014-15 | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| 2013-14 | 57.0% | 63.0% |
| 2012-13 | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| Total | 47.3% | 52.7% |
NBA Playoffs: Seed-by-Seed Betting
Some very interesting trends emerge when you break down win rates over the past 10 postseasons based on a team’s seeding. This is the knowledge that really makes those bookies pay for their inaccuracies. This is our meat and potatoes, right here!
SU and ATS Records by Seed in the NBA Playoffs
This first chart simply lists the ATS and SU records for each seed going back to the 2013 Playoffs – excluding Finals series in which two teams with the same seed faced off.
| Seed | # of Games | ATS Record (%) | SU Record (%) |
| 1 | 297 | 157-139-1 (53.0%) | 190-107 (64.0%) |
| 2 | 321 | 176-141-4 (55.5%) | 195-126 (60.7%) |
| 3 | 233 | 118-114-1 (50.9%) | 126-107 (54.1%) |
| 4 | 177 | 81-95-1 (46.0%) | 81-96 (45.8%) |
| 5 | 162 | 82-79-1 (50.9%) | 70-92 (43.2%) |
| 6 | 117 | 55-62 (47.0%) | 40-77 (34.2%) |
| 7 | 100 | 36-61-3 (37.1%) | 28-72 (28.0%) |
| 8 | 103 | 46-55-2 (45.5%) | 30-73 (29.1%) |
Backing up our previous findings, favored teams (1 and 2 seeds) perform exceptionally well in the NBA postseason – SU, of course, but also ATS. ATS win rates begin to plummet real fast the further down the list we go.
Series Records by Seed in the NBA Playoffs
Of course, betting individual games isn’t the only way to make a buck. Betting series is a very popular way to buy some exposure to a team while shielding yourself from the variability of single-game betting.
Here are each seed’s series records since 2012-13 – again, excluding Finals series featuring two teams with the same seed.
| Seed | # of Series | Series Record (%) |
| 1 | 54 | 42-12 (77.8%) |
| 2 | 57 | 41-16 (71.9%) |
| 3 | 40 | 24-16 (60.0%) |
| 4 | 31 | 12-19 (38.7%) |
| 5 | 30 | 12-18 (40.0%) |
| 6 | 21 | 3-18 (14.3%) |
| 7 | 18 | 0-18 (0%) |
| 8 | 18 | 0-18 (0%) |
Wow! Stay away from those 7 and 8 seeds. The last 7 or 8 seed to win a series was the 8-seed Sixers over the 1-seed Bulls back in the 2012 playoffs. The Sixers lost the very next series
It appears that betting on high seeds while giving some preference to home teams and favorites is the way to go in the modern NBA playoffs.
Doubling Down on Good Teams After a Game 1 Loss in the NBA Playoffs
Here is a hot NBA Playoffs betting trend we stumbled across last year. High seeds have an extreme propensity to bounce back from a Game 1 loss.
Teams seeded 1-3 who lost Game 1 of a series as a home favorite and come into Game 2 as a home favorite are 28-4 SU (87.5%) and 24-8 (75.0%) ATS dating back to the 2013 postseason. That’s awesome!
Such teams have won 12 straight games both SU and ATS dating back to May, 2018.
Good luck, boppers! See you at the top!
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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