TUF 28 Finale: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Kamaru Usman Betting Guide

The first of two UFC fight cards this weekend will see Rafael dos Anjos and Kamaru Usman go to war in the main event.

At The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale on Friday, November 30, these two welterweight fighters will stand toe-to-toe, with the winner coming out closer to a shot at the UFC Welterweight Championship than ever before.

Dos Anjos vs. Usman is the headlining fight of what is a packed event in Las Vegas, Nevada, to mark the conclusion of season 28 of The Ultimate Fighter.

For now, however, most of the attention is on the main event battle.

We’ve watched hours of tape, countless interviews, and completed statistical analysis to bring you the best betting advice for this event.

Let’s get started.

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Kamaru Usman

After losing the UFC Lightweight Championship to Eddie Alvarez via first-round KO/TKO and then being outworked by Tony Ferguson in a five-round war not long after, Rafael dos Anjos made the move up to the UFC’s welterweight division to test his abilities there against the 170-pound fighters.

It sure seems to have worked out for him.

After managing victories over Tarec Saffiedine and Neil Magny, dos Anjos went on to secure a decision victory over Robbie Lawler and eventually earn himself a shot at the Interim UFC Welterweight Championship. Dos Anjos would meet outspoken Colby Covington at UFC 225.

It was then when dos Anjos’ unbeaten streak as a welterweight would come undone. Covington’s blistering pace, pressure and grappling dominance helped him to earn a decisive unanimous decision victory after five rounds.

And now dos Anjos finds himself with an opportunity to redeem himself against “The Nigerian Nightmare.”

Kamaru Usman has been a dangerous competitor in the UFC’s welterweight for as long as we can remember.

Debuting in July 2015, Usman is currently undefeated in the UFC after eight fights. His rise, unlike many who have come through the ranks in recent years, has been slow and steady. Whether it’s because the UFC are “dragging their feet” when promoting him or for other reasons, Usman has not yet broken through in the same way that Darren Till and others have.

Regardless, Usman lets his results do the talking. Entering this one after the biggest win of his career so far – a dominant unanimous decision against former title challenger, Demian Maia – Usman can no longer be ignored by the top contenders in the 170-pound category.

Here’s how the bookmakers have it:

Best Odds for Rafael dos Anjos vs. Kamaru Usman

• Rafael dos Anjos: +231 (SportBet)
• Kamaru Usman: -253 (Pinnacle)

It’s not a surprise to see Usman listed as a moderate betting favorite. After all, Usman appears to be the type of fighter that dos Anjos struggles against.

While the line doesn’t seem funky at first glance, there has been enough action on Rafael dos Anjos to push him down from +230 to +210 at most bookmakers. SportBet is sticking around at +230 for now and this option represents great value against the rest of the industry.

Fight Breakdown

Although most people are quick to cry out and ask why the UFC is throwing dos Anjos in there against another wrestler who will likely smother him for five rounds, there’s a good chance that this won’t be another one-sided fight in favor of dos Anjos’ opponent.

When Colby Covington outworked dos Anjos through five rounds, it was mainly because of his world-class cardio and conditioning. Where Covington was attempting takedowns from the very first seconds of the fight and disallowing dos Anjos to plant his feet, that’s the same type of pace that would likely have most other fighters in the divisions walking back to their corners with their hands up gasping for air.

An Usman takedown (or five) sure seems like a certainty, but this all comes down to whether he will be able to maintain a similarly relentless pace to Covington and Khabib Nurmagomedov – who also beat down dos Anjos – for five rounds. Usman is known to fatigue and that’s exactly why this fight might have people appreciating Covington’s exceptional performance even more so.

As long as this fight stays standing, Usman is playing in dos Anjos’ world.

With devastating leg kicks, penetrating body shots, and outstanding work from inside the clinch, dos Anjos will be damaging Usman at every moment.

But Usman will be doing his own work too. Having improved his stand-up by training with the team at Hard Knocks 365, Usman will have his own success while standing but most of his best work will come when he gets the fight to the mat. Again, Usman will likely score takedowns and secure a dominant position, but this trend might not last through rounds three, four and five.

Usman is a deserving betting favorite, but not by this much.

Take Rafael dos Anjos to win at the generous odds provided by SportBet (+230).

Darren Stewart vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

The next best betting opportunity presents itself earlier on The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale main card when Darren Stewart welcomes Edmond Tarverdyan trained fighter, Edmen Shahbazyan to the UFC.

Shahbazyan captured the attention of Dana White and the matchmakers with an impressive first-round finish during an episode of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series earlier this year. That win marked Shahbzahyan’s seventh consecutive first-round KO/TKO finish, so there’s clearly a lot here to unpack before this 21-year-old dives into the deep end with an experienced UFC-caliber fighter.

And that opponent is Stewart, a six-fight veteran of the world’s leading mixed martial arts promotion who has only recently generated some winning momentum. After losing to Francimar Barroso, Karl Roberson and then Julian Marquez, “The Dentist” has since picked up KO/TKO finishes of his own by stopping Eric Spicely and Charles Byrd.

Best Odds for Darren Stewart vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

• Darren Stewart: +105 (5Dimes)
• Edmen Shahbazyan: -115 (Pinnacle)

It seems that the bookmakers and the public are having a hard time settling on a position for this fight.

The odds for this middleweight contest have been jumping all over the place. After opening as a pick ’em fight, Stewart then was smashed all the way out to a moderate betting favorite position before eventually being clawed back in as a slight underdog at most bookmakers.

It’s at this position where we think a bet on Darren Stewart represents excellent value.

Fight Breakdown

On paper, there isn’t enough evidence to support backing Shahbazyan as a favorite.

Before his standout performance on the Contender Series show, Shahbazyan had only ever competed against low-quality fighters. In fact, three of his first five opponents were winless and his most recent had won 17 fights and lost 38. We’re not exactly inspired by the level of competition that Shahbazyan has been facing.

But he’s done exactly what should be expected of someone who is competing against fighters of that level, he’s ruined inside the first minute or two. That stands for something, at least. And he made Antonio Jones (7-1) look like he didn’t belong inside the cage with him on that night at The Ultimate Fighter gym.

If we look past what is an early career of mostly can-crushing, we see a young and talented fighter who is extremely dangerous inside the first five minutes of a fight.

But that’s about all we can say.

We’re yet to see Shahbazyan tested against a high-quality opponent. We’ve also never seen how he performs after the first couple of minutes. What if someone can take his best shots and hammer some home in return?

That’s exactly what Darren Stewart is capable of.

“The Dentist” is a devastating striker with decent power, accuracy, and a variety of creative techniques up his sleeve. He’s reasonably well rounded in the sense that he has been seen shooting takedowns if he finds himself in trouble while standing and he’s also got relatively nasty ground and pound from the top position to go with it.

Stewart was mostly slept on when he entered the UFC because he was obviously undersized for the 205-pound light heavyweight division. He’s since dropped down to middleweight where he has now crafted a career from being a durable and heavy-hitting puncher.

There’s a huge chance that an overconfident Shahbazyan blitzes out of the gates early and begins trading heavy shots with Stewart. If anything, the smoothest path to victory against Stewart is to do exactly the opposite of that.

For that reason, we’re going to be leaning on the fighter with a proven record against better-quality opposition to come through with a victory this weekend.

Bet on Darren Stewart to win at +105 with 5Dimes