I checked several of the curriculum books used to design math classes across the nation. Guess how many suggest teaching students about betting college basketball unders in January? You guessed it, zero.
Picking up the school system’s slack as usual, I am here to tickle under-bettors pink and convert as many over-betting pigs as I can (just kidding over-bettors, you’re not pigs).
A much older and wiser sports bettor once told me that he loves betting unders for this reason: as soon as the game begins, your bet is winning. Points actually have to be scored and “stuff” has to happen in order for you to lose.
With that thought in mind, here are 3 situations in which betting college basketball unders in the month of January can really pay off big.
Situation #1: When an Undefeated Team is Playing
I noticed this trend when researching for my “Undefeated Teams in January” article. The under hits a lot in games that feature teams with a perfect record. I’m not going to show you stats to back that up. Just trust me, ok? … Kidding again! I always show stats!
| Year | Under % |
| 2018-19 | 71.4% |
| 2017-18 | — |
| 2016-17 | 58.3% |
| 2015-16 | 53.8% |
| 2014-15 | 57.1% |
| 2013-14 | 60.0% |
| 2012-13 | 69.2% |
| 2011-12 | 47.6% |
| 2010-11 | 59.4% |
| 2009-10 | 42.1% |
| 2008-09 | 58.8% |
| 2007-08 | 36.7% |
| 2006-07 | 42.9% |
| Total | 53.7% |
A 53.7% win rate over 240 games is good for a 2.6% ROI. This is a great addition to any system you may be building for handicapping undefeated teams.
Situation #2: West Coast Conference Games
Something about games in the WCC has caused unders to hit at a lucrative rate since 2006. Maybe the bookies do not feel like staying up late to watch games or just do not pay as much attention to this conference, but the totals tend to be overestimated.
Take a look at these under rates by season in WCC January games and you will instantly see what I mean.
| Year | Under % |
| 2018-19 | 66.7% |
| 2017-18 | 60.0% |
| 2016-17 | 55.0% |
| 2015-16 | 51.2% |
| 2014-15 | 42.2% |
| 2013-14 | 52.5% |
| 2012-13 | 65.7% |
| 2011-12 | 57.1% |
| 2010-11 | 56.0% |
| 2009-10 | 51.9% |
| 2008-09 | 67.9% |
| 2007-08 | 75.0% |
| 2006-07 | 57.1% |
| Total | 56.7% |
Like clockwork, baby! At 56.7% over 418 games, bettors are raking in a cool 8.2% ROI each time a WCC January game tips off.
Situation #3: MAAC Conference Games
Name one team in the MAAC … I’m waiting. The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference does not host the nation’s most renown athletes, but that may actually work in our favor. I say it all the time, but books are not as good at ‘capping small-conference teams as they are the major ones.
The same situation that is occurring out west is happening in the MAAC. Oddsmakers are overestimating totals. How bad is it? Take a look.
| Year | Under % |
| 2018-19 | 45.5% |
| 2017-18 | 54.3% |
| 2016-17 | 54.7% |
| 2015-16 | 59.2% |
| 2014-15 | 55.1% |
| 2013-14 | 44.9% |
| 2012-13 | 51.2% |
| 2011-12 | 59.1% |
| 2010-11 | 54.5% |
| 2009-10 | 53.2% |
| 2008-09 | 48.9% |
| 2007-08 | 69.2% |
| Total | 54.5% |
Once again, pretty awesome that we can sit back and expect a 4.1% ROI from games we know very little about.
I am handing out plenty of ammo because I want us to kick off 2019 in style with big college basketball profits right out of the gates. See you on top!
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
Leave a Reply