Chelsea Favored to Knock Off Host Arsenal on Saturday

The Premier League has settled into what is basically a 2-team race between Liverpool and Manchester City. Chelsea is close enough to make a long charge at the top…but the Blues must win virtually every match if their meeting with Liverpool on April 13^th is to be anything other than a spoiler’s fancy.

Speaking of spoilers, knocking Chelsea out of any valid hopes for a title in 2019 would be a step toward the elite reputation that Arsenal surely covets.

The Gunners and Blues will play on Saturday at Emirates Stadium, with Chelsea a (+140) moneyline favorite.

An Underwhelming Arsenal

Arsenal lost to West Ham 0-1 on Saturday, and friction on the squad boiled over in headlines. If you are supposed to be competing for a Premier League title you usually do not lose to West Ham via a clean sheet for the opponent. Not with Aubameyang on the wing. Not with Alexandre Lacazette lined up as a striker. Or Granit Xhaka in midfield.

The Hammers are 9-4-9 and -2 in team goal total after 22 matches. Arsenal committed 10 fouls, took 2 yellow cards, and managed exactly 2 on-target shots against keeper Łukasz Fabiański.

After the match, a conspicuous report exploded onto the viral internet. Mesut Özil tweeted a message about his work ethic after being held out of the lineup against West Ham for “tactical reasons” by manager Unai Emery. Rumors of a rift flourish.

Özil is one of the supreme midfielders in the world when he’s on his game, and probably the last player you would want the manager feuding with going into the calendar year. If Emery is having a Mourinho-and-Pogba moment with his key German playmaker, then well…we all know how that story ends.

The EFL Cup Gets Serious…and Other Recent History  

Chelsea may still have an outside shot at charging to the top of the table, but the squad must first deal with some emotional distress of their own. And it does not even have much to do with the Premier League.

Controversy ran rampant at Wembley Stadium last week as the Blues lost a Carabao Cup semifinal leg to Tottenham 0-1. Each manager started an impressive group of World Cup heroes. Then in midst of the 1^st half, all hell broke loose as an obvious offside run by Harry Kane turned into a collision with Kepa and a penalty kick, which Kane nailed to give Spurs a literal leg-up on the series.

Of greater concern to prospective Chelsea bettors is the squad’s failure to score a single abysmal, stinking goal against Southampton on the day after New Year’s.

The Blues had the football for 72% of the match and attempted well over a dozen shots, but could not solve young GK Angus Gunn despite the usual presence of Eden Hazard at forward, Álvaro Morata alongside, and massed ammunition in midfield.

One result is something. But a trend is something else. Chelsea has not been scoring enough goals, at least not compared to the enormous outbursts of tallies from Manchester City and Liverpool.

N’Golo Kanté scored to give the Blues a 1-0 advantage over Crystal Palace on the previous Matchday, and the lead was enough for Kepa to protect. But the attack isn’t flowing.

Things picked up on Matchday 22 as Chelsea beat Newcastle 2-1, with the awesome new pop-music combo of “Pedro and Willian” scoring the tallies.

There are certainly demands on the Chelsea squad this weekend. But there’s just as much pressure on an Arsenal club that has something to prove – and which is dealing with sour tabloid headlines just as all hands are needed on deck.

My Handicap and Best Wager

The odds lean slightly in Chelsea’s direction. But they should be leaning more. The Blues have the type of squad that can be beaten by an underdog thanks to some mental disadvantage or injury woes, or bad breaks. But this Saturday, Arsenal will be the team dealing with disadvantages and possible bad breaks.

Gunners will come out gunning. I’m expecting a surprise, continual early attack from the hosts as Aubameyang prances and dances up and down the wing with the football. Kepa will definitely have his work cut out for him.

But once the Chelsea backline figures a few things out, it could look much like the Mexico vs Brazil contest at the World Cup in Russia, with the Mexicans probing for the first 20:00 followed by the Brazilians finding space and a path to the opposing goal.

Chelsea’s counterattack and speed will be tricky for Arsenal – a team with weaker numbers in the midfield and backline – to deal with if things go wrong on the attacking end. Remember that Bernd Leno is not the first GK to start for Arsenal in 2018-19, and he is still looking to hit full stride.

The guests’ moneyline offers a high-% pick on a decent pot o’ gold at (+140).