Profit by Betting Nothing but Pac-12 Games in February – Part One

College basketball is such a month-by-month sport. That is why I am always putting out guides based on the month. Before the calendar turns, there are stacked early-season tournaments and cupcake thrash-for-cash games. January and February are the meat n’ taters of the season – conference play. March is just … well … madness.

I am all about making things simple. What could be simpler than finding a couple of profitable systems lurking within the confines of just one conference? Ready for my sales pitch? Here goes: Want to make $3,972? Listen up, I’ll teach you. Just bet the Pac and don’t look back.

Pac-12 Home ATS February Stats

The world of sports betting features many market inefficiencies which the experts at Vegas are normally pretty good at correcting. Striking while the iron is hot is key. I want to point out the first discrepancy I noticed while browsing Pac-12 results.

ATS winning percentages of February home teams over the past 5 seasons in the Pac-12 are quite high. Check out these numbers for those home teams over the past 5 Februarys.

Season	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2017-18	64.3%	72.1%	-2.4
2016-17	54.5%	59.1%	-2.0
2015-16	56.8%	77.3%	-4.5
2014-15	45.2%	64.3%	-3.3
2013-14	53.5%	69.8%	-4.1
Total	54.9%	68.5%	-3.3

The home teams in February Pac-12 games were profitable ATS in 4 of the past 5 seasons. They were not just squeaking by, either. These clubs covered nearly 55% of the time.

There are two factors that could account for a rise in ATS win rates. Either the books are underestimating these teams or the teams are actually performing better. In this special case, I believe both factors are at play.

Since we have data in 2006, the SU win rate for Pac-12 February home teams has not exceeded 70% – that is, until the 2015-16 season. Interestingly, the books actually moved the lines in favor of the home teams, dropping the average line from -4.5 to -2.0, despite those teams winning 77.3% SU the year prior.

The peculiar shift worked for one season, but the SU wins spiked back up last February. With unprecedented SU win rates, it would appear the disparity in the Pac-12 has grown in recent years.

Pac-12 Home SU February Stats

Season	ATS %	SU %	Avg Line
2017-18	64.3%	72.1%	-2.4
2016-17	54.5%	59.1%	-2.0
2015-16	56.8%	77.3%	-4.5
2014-15	45.2%	64.3%	-3.3
2013-14	53.5%	69.8%	-4.1
Total	54.9%	68.5%	-3.3

The Pac-12 is far from a one-trick pony. Those SU win rates I mentioned earlier are also wildly profitable. In 5 of the past 5 Februarys (yes, all of them), the moneyline has been kind to home teams, as well.

Teams would need a win rate of about 64% to break even with an average line of -3.3. That 68.5% mark is what we in the industry like to call a wallet-fattener.

Check this out! Here are the year-by-year (actually the February-by-February) profits for those who have bet Pac-12 home teams both SU and ATS over the past 5 seasons.

Season	Profit
2017-18	$2,290
2016-17	$307
2015-16	$1,560
2014-15	-$555
2013-14	$370
Total	$3,972

If these profits don’t give you that hard feeling right in the wallet, you ain’t alive. Stay tuned for Part 2. See you on the top!