Liverpool vs Leicester City Odds Show How Much Things Have Changed Since 2016

It is doubtful that Liverpool skipper Jürgen Klopp would admit it, but his Reds could benefit from being out of the FA Cup and Carabao Cup brackets at this point.

Liverpool has a real shot at winning the Premier League in 2019, and singleness-of-purpose is never a bad thing. Sure, the team will play in the Champions League and try to win it. But while other squads knock themselves stupid trying to win a Cup named after a muscle drink, Salah and his supporting cast can prep for a January 30^th match with visiting Leicester City.

The visiting “Foxes” are coming off 3 exasperating losses in a row, including FA Cup elimination at the hands of Newport County on January 6^th. MyBookie is calling the Reds a near (-600) prohibitive favorite on the moneyline with Leicester City’s odds-to-win at a monstrous (+1179).

The Reds are also a (-2) favorite on the goal spread for the mid-week kickoff.

From the Hotbed of Brazil

Liverpool is presently interested in adding Emerson, a showy new defender from the Brazilian league, to its backline. But there is nothing a tenderfoot from South America could do to cure all of Klopp’s roster woes in front of goalkeeper Alisson. Defenders Trent-Alexander Arnold and Joe Gomez are each hurt, Gomez having been stretchered-off the pitch at a point in December.

James Milner also will not appear vs Leicester due to a riotous red card taken against Crystal Palace.

But on the bright side, Liverpool’s attack has been establishing itself as among the more dangerous in Premier League history, with talent that strikes fear in even the most well-drilled backline unit. Salah exploded onto the scene last season and not only led Liverpool to a sniff of the EPL title, but to the heights of Champions League play as well.

Sadio Mané and Roberto Firmino unite with Salah, who leads the EPL with 16 goals, to give Liverpool 3 goal-scorers among the top 10 from the 20 competing squads.

Alisson has proven to be a key upgrade in goal. The record-breaking transfer-signee for Liverpool is commended for his ability to play out from the back, but it is his ability to keep the ball out of the goal that has been the stable force behind Liverpool’s ascension. Alisson has kept 13 clean sheets this season, 3 more than any other Premier League keeper.

And don’t fuss about the backline too much. Liverpool has given up fewer goals than any other squad in the Premiership in 2018-19. So how, then, did the Reds give up 3 goals (while scoring 4) against defense-minded Crystal Palace last weekend?

EPL matches can turn on a dime, and Palace is a worthy foe on the attack. But maybe it happened because Klopp knows his best defense is often his extraordinary offense.

Foxes Still Hunting

Leicester’s winning charge in 2015-16 came straight out of a Disney sports movie, only with grown men in England instead of a group of oddball kids in America. At 5000/1 odds, Leicester stormed through the league with Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez scoring enough to let the Foxes stand out on defense.

But this is a new era. The sacking of Claudio Ranieri was contentious given that he engineered one of the greatest upsets ever, but the club has been slipping. Les Blues hero N’Golo Kante was recently bought by Chelsea, marking the end of another trademark look for the team.

Vardy is still in place, and Leicester has been trying to generate attack by sending him long passes down the wing. The unrelenting strategy has yielded an even goal differential in 2018-19, with 29 goals scored and 29 allowed. Combined with a 9^th-place status that ranks the club above Everton (and just a few places below United), that is not bad.

Of course, Leicester would have given up far more than 29 goals so far this season if not for goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel. Schmeichel has kept 7 clean sheets since August.

The most-recent outing exposed real issues at backline. Veteran defender Wes Morgan was influential in the Foxes’ miracle season, but looked old and flustered as the former Cinderella champions gave up 4 tallies in a 1-goal loss to Wolves.

Leicester ran through the Christmas season in a streak of glory, beating Chelsea and Man City just 5 days apart. But much like Wolverhampton and a few other less-consistent squads in 2018-19, the team could not get it done against lesser lights during the same time span. Claude Puel’s club even managed to lose to Southampton on Matchday 22 in spite of opposing backliner Yan Valery taking a red card for Saints in the 45^th minute.

Maybe things are beginning to turn around. Leicester showed a lot of nerve against Wolves on Saturday, fighting back from an 0-2 deficit to tie the score early in the 2^nd half. The attack looked animated on the road, with 16 shot attempts and 55% ball possession. The athletes were done in by a great individual performance by Jota, who scored a hat trick.

Handicapping Reds vs Foxes: Goal Spread Play

Comparing the odds with the real chances here, it seems foolish to think that Leicester City does not have better chances than the 11-to-1 odds posted at MyBookie.

But in a David vs Goliath match that may turn out to be more closely-fought than pundits think, don’t give a bookmaker your money with only slim hopes of a winning bet slip.

While Leicester (+2) is also an “enhanced vig” at the book with (-125) payoff odds, that is at least a decent trade-off for a whole 2 tallies handed to a quality team.