Ok … Michigan State Beat Michigan … Once

January 30th. On that date in 1661, Oliver Cromwell was ritually executed. On that same date in 1948, Gandhi was assassinated. Winston Churchill’s funeral was later held on that date in 1965.

Historically, January 30th has not been a great date. Something big happened this past January 30th, however. On January 30th, 2019, I famously announced my bold prediction that “Michigan State Will Lose to Michigan at least Twice” this season.

The pair of top-10 programs from the snowy north met for their first of two regular season matchups this past Sunday in Ann Arbor. Michigan St won 77-70. The rematch is set for March 9th at 8pm in East Lansing. I also see these two meeting up in the Big Ten tournament finals in early March.

All the naysayers out there are calling my prediction “wrong”. In their minds, it’s over. No way UM is coming back and winning 2 games against Sparty.  While not nearly as favorable after Sunday, my prediction of two Sparty losses to UM is still as alive as ever.

I know it does not look good. I will not ignore the naysayers’ arguments. In fact, I will address them now. Here is why I may be wrong about MSU this year.

Why Michigan St Will Beat Michigan Again

1. Despite being short handed, MSU came to win on Sunday and outlasted a stronger Wolverines squad.

Sparty has three double-digit scorers this season. All-Big Ten guard Cassius Winston is the team’s undisputed leader, averaging 19 points and 7 assists per game. Right behind him are Nick Ward and Joshua Langford who are both averaging 15.

Ward and Langford were both out with injuries this Sunday in Ann Arbor. Kenny Goins, Xavier Tillman, and Matt McQuaid – despite averaging a combined 25 points per game this season – picked up the slack and poured in a combined 43 points to help MSU come out on top against Michigan.

If Sparty can rise to the occasion while shorthanded, imagine what they can do at full strength.

2. MSU already won the road leg. Now they just need to defend home court.

Ha! Gotcha! I’m not going to give too much credit to my naysayers. While it is true that MSU won short handed the other day, recent history tells us that the road leg is actually the easier win to secure. The fact that the rematch is in East Lansing actually helps my case in this rivalry.

Why Michigan Will Beat Michigan St and Prove Me Correct

In the past 6 Michigan-Michigan St regular season matchups, the road team has won 4 times. Extending back even further tells us that the road team has won 6 of the past 10. Home court means nothing in this rivalry, and I believe Michigan will prove that on March 9th.

3. No team has beaten Michigan twice this year.

Michigan now has 4 losses: Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn St, and Michigan St. Two of those teams have had two shots at the Wolverines: Wisconsin and Penn St. It’s a small sample size I know, but neither were able to beat UM twice. MSU is going to attempt to become the first to do so this season on March 9th.

4. Michigan’s players have much more experience in big games.

Falling right into what seems to be the common trap in this rivalry, UM thought that playing at home guaranteed them a victory on Sunday. If the boys have yet to figure it out, I’m sure that Coach Beilein will make them aware that they need to treat the rematch with Sparty like a full-blown tournament game.

In a contest sure to be surrounded by a playoff atmosphere, I give Michigan a distinct advantage. Zavier Simpson, Charles Matthews, and Jordan Poole all have much more big game experience than do any trio on MSU.

March 9th will be much different than February 24th. Wait ‘n see! The tables are about to turn in the former Western Conference. Everyone with a January 30th birthday is depending on it.