The Demise of Small Ball – Are Steals Up or Down Right Now?

Small ball. It is a term used when a team scores a run without the aid of a big hit. Walks, hit by pitches, sacrifice flies, steals, and bunts are all textbook small ball.

Some people you talk to will argue these will soon be a thing of the past as small ball is slowly disappearing from the game. Is it really? What do the numbers say?

I have always been a big fan of the stolen base. I will throw down some steals numbers today and then break down other stats next week. Let’s talk steals.

No More Stolen Bases?

“A stolen base occurs when a baserunner advances by taking a base to which he isn’t entitled. This generally occurs when a pitcher is throwing a pitch”.

Watching a speedy runner inch away from the bag before breaking for second on the pitch is one of the most exciting plays in the game of baseball. Stolen bases are a great strategy when the hitter is trying to hit a single, but today’s hitters only seem to care about home runs.

When the hitter is trying to go deep it doesn’t matter what base the runner is standing on. Stolen bases become less valuable and may not be worth the risk when home runs become more important than making contact.

Is it still worth the risk for MLB managers to call steals? Are super speedy one-dimensional guys worth having on your team?

Here are a few stats which may help to answer those questions. The following is a list of the top 10 steals seasons in MLB history. Notice how the most recent date on the list is 1999.

Year	Steals
1914	4573
1915	4106
1987	3585
1999	3421
1911	3403
1912	3385
1983	3325
1986	3312
1997	3308
1988	3301

This list does not mean a whole lot. It simply shows we have not witnessed a big steals year in a while. To get a better view of the peaks and valleys of stolen bases, we need year-by-year numbers.

Time for some snapshots in baseball history. Here are the steals totals from the beginning of each decade since 1900 to show when stolen bases have been popular and when they have not.

Year	Steals
1900	1686
1910	3265
1920	1720
1930	1080
1940	953
1950	650
1960	923
1970	1908
1980	3294
1990	3290
2000	2924
2010	2959
2018	2474
2019*	2300

* on pace for

Take away the large spike in 1910 and it appears the biggest steals totals have all occurred in the past 30 years.

You know why that 1910 spike exists? Remember the definition for a steal? The runner must take a base to which he isn’t entitled. To which he isn’t entitled … that’s the key phrase.

Late in games, typically in the 9th inning, defenses will let runners take second and even third base when the score is several runs apart. The defense is not attempting to tag the stealing player out. They are as much as saying he is entitled to the next base. This is not a steal.

Today, we call this play a defensive indifference. The runner is not rewarded for something he did not earn. Back in the 1910s, these plays were ruled as steals which inflated the numbers.

After the scoring change, steals actually dipped way down through the 40s and 50s but rebounded to their strongest numbers ever in the 80s and 90s. An increase in the importance of home runs has caused steals numbers to slowly dwindle all through the 2000s and 2010s.

So I guess we answered our first question. Steals are still worth it, although we are not stealing bags like we used to.

What about that second question? Do speed-only guys exist anymore? To help answer that, I have put together a list of the top-10 career steals leaders in MLB history along with when they played. This will help us find when speed was at its most popular.

Name	Steals	Years Played
Rickey Henderson	1406	1979-2003
Lou Brock	938	1961-79
Billy Hamilton	912	1888-1901
Ty Cobb	892	1905-28
Tim Raines	807	1979-2002
Vince Coleman	752	1985-97
Eddie Collins	744	1906-30
Artie Latham	739	1880-1909
Max Carey	738	1910-29
Honus Wagner	722	1897-1917

I should mention that these 10 are the only players in the 700 steals club in MLB history. Looking for any active players on this list? You won’t find ‘em.

There are no active players inside the top-65 on the all-time steals leaderboard.

Steals numbers may be holding their own right now. There is not one guy leading the charge, though. The average player steals a bit more often than they used to, but those fear-instilling speed demons are disappearing from our base paths.