How to Handle Huge CFB Favorites

While the bulk of lopsided matchups occur early in the college football season, we had 6 spreads of 21+ points this past weekend with another 8 the weekend prior. College football matchups tend to get imbalanced quite often. Knowing how to bet theses games will prove very useful.

Should I take the points and side with the dog if the spread gets ridiculous? Should I bet the dog on the moneyline? Bet overs? Unders?

It is easy to second guess yourself when faced with a large spread because the outcome seems so obvious. What does the data say about large college football spreads? That is what I want to know.

Recent Big Favorite History

I filled this chart with data extending back into the 2014 season. I used the Killersports SDQL feature to find ATS, SU, and total data for games with large spreads. A 45-point favorite is far different from a 21-point favorite – so I felt the need to separate the spreads into intervals.

The ATS and SU records below are for the favored team.

Line	ATS Record	ATS Win %	SU Record	SU Win %	Avg Total	Over %
-45 or more	35-53-4	39.8%	91-1	98.9%	65.8	46.3%
-35 to -44.5	115-115-7	50.0%	237-0	100%	59.0	55.0%
-21 to -34.5	466-446-24	51.1%	897-39	95.8%	57.6	52.8%
Total	616-614-35	50.1%	1225-40	96.8%	58.4	52.8%

Using the data from this chart, we can explore moneyline, spread, and total betting with large favorites.

Betting Large-Favorite Moneylines

The largest favorite to have lost SU this season was when Georgia Tech dropped an early-season contest to The Citadel as a 26.5-point favorite.

The largest upset in college football betting history occurred just 2 years ago in 2017 when the Howard Bison upset UNLV despite a 45-point spread. The next-largest FBS upset was in 2015 when 31.5-point favorite Boise State lost to New Mexico.

Do massive favorites occasionally lose? Of course, but take a look at the chart. Favorites of 35+ points are 328-1 since the beginning of the 2014 season. Why doesn’t everyone just bet massive moneyline favorites? That’s a winning percentage of 99.7% over the past 5 years!

Two reasons. One – many books will not post moneylines on such lopsided games. Two – your return is virtually nothing when you back a moneyline favorite of that magnitude. Here is an example from the Week 7 slate.

Virginia Tech closed as 27-point favorites over Rhode Island on Saturday at Lane Stadium and was a -7000 moneyline play. This means you need to bet $70 just to win $1! This was not even the heaviest favorite.

Tulane was hosting the hapless UCONN Huskies and the Green Wave closed as 34-point favorites. Their moneyline? -10000. Yes, that’s 1 to 100 odds. If you wanted to profit $1,000 off this game, it would have required a Dan Bilzerian-esque $100,000 wager!

I am uncomfortable throwing down my entire bankroll on a single outcome. One loss and you are done for the year – maybe forever. I never make these bets. It feels like setting myself up for failure. The data reminds me that massive upsets occur just often enough to make heavy moneyline favorites -EV plays.

Betting Large Spreads

21 to 44.5-point favorites are right at 50% ATS over the past 5 years. This means each side is below the 52.4% minimum. No edge there. Vegas is solid in that interval.

The books are no longer spot-on when the spread grows to 45 points or greater. Even good teams have trouble covering that large of a spread consistently, and it shows in the data. The underdogs have won 60.2% ATS over the past 5 years in games with a point spread of 45 or greater.

The verdict here – lean underdog on spreads of 45+.

Betting Large-Spread Totals

Betting totals for lopsided games involves predicting whether a 38-3 type blowout or a 77-10 type slaughter will occur.

As shown in the chart above, totals increase as the spread grows. The average total in the 21-34.5 point interval is 57.6 while the average total in the 45+ point interval is 65.8.

When the spread is below 45 points, the over tends to hit. The sample size for this interval is huge, so I trust the data.

When the spread is above 45 points, the under becomes profitable. At first, I did not like this disparity. After thinking about it for a bit, I believe it actually makes a ton of sense.

We already established that the underdog is a good ATS bet when the spread is 45 points or greater. This means Vegas overvalues favorites regularly. If the book sets a total at 70 points with a 45-point spread, they are expecting the score to be roughly 57-13.

If the favored team underwhelms (which the data shows is likely) and only puts up 40 or 45 points, not only will the underdog win ATS but the under will hit as well.

Verdict: Bet unders when the spread is 45+. Bet overs when it’s in the 20s or 30s.

See you on top!