NFL Week 9: Giants-Cowboys MNF Odds Stand Out on Week of Tight Handicaps

Things tend to go back to the way they were in sports – not counting all of the amazing social progress made by women and LGBTQ athletes of course. It’s just that in Las Vegas, teams aren’t viewed as what they were yesterday or the day before or the day before, but rather as bumps on a wavelength that always goes back to center.

That’s why “reversion to form” is such a big deal in betting circles. Think about how a bookmaker views an FBS program like Fresno State. Jeff Tedford’s Bulldogs routinely crushed the point spread for much of the past several years. If there was a secret or a formula to always out-playing expectations, the Bulldogs had it. But let Fresno beat that (-6.5) spread time after time after time…the bookie knows that it’s impossible to do it forever. Sho’nuff – Fresno State is a paltry 2-4-1 ATS in 2019.

Can an entire league go through a “reversion to form?” Allow me to nominate the National Football League in 2019. This is supposed to be the year parity goes out the window as dominant teams like New England and San Francisco lord over the have-nots like Miami, Washington, and New York (the Jets and Giants apply).

But there are few “college style” spreads or moneylines offered for Week 9 of the NFL. In fact, it’s pretty hard to find MLs with a “2” at the beginning. Buffalo is expected to blow-out Washington, and Seattle and Cleveland are fairly-solid favorites to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Denver Broncos respectively. Other than that it’s all tight odds on Sunday…prior to the more liberally-handicapped Monday Night Football meeting between the New York Giants and visiting Dallas Cowboys.

Part of the reason my NCAA pigskin record is a wee bit shinier than my NFL record is my proficiency with wide point-spreads and potential blow-outs. I’m known as the guy who gets just as jazzed-up about successfully picking Georgia Southern to cover in Death Valley as getting the Clemson-Alabama pick right in 2018 (luckily, I managed to do both). It would get easier for a blow-out specialist to predict NFL market-outcomes if The Shield kept churning-out lopsided pairings. But nope…in Week 9 there’s a whole lot of parity after all.

I’d better be on my game…just like the Big Blue on Monday night. Here’s 3 Sunday picks and a MNF special.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Sunday’s midday round of kickoffs comes with a scrum that, as I described a Premier League soccer match also taking place this weekend, pits a “movable object” against a “resistible force.”

It has been touted as a meeting of the 2 worst offenses in the NFL. The Jets and Dolphins each rank among the worst in the league in all yardage categories.

There was a brief spark of hope for the ‘Jersey Jets when Sam Darnold returned from illness to shine vs the Cowboys in Week 6, but after getting shut-out by New England the following week Darnold struggled again against the Jaguars. The former 3rd-overall pick was actually pretty accurate throwing the ball over the course of the game, but mistakes proved costly as he tossed 3 more INTs.

Sparing good news for the Jets includes a quality run defense. Despite being on the field more than any other of 31 units, the group is holding opposing backs to just 3.25 YPC, good for 2nd in the NFL behind only the Buccaneers. In last week’s 29-15 loss at Jacksonville, New York held workhorse back Leonard Fournette to 76 yards on 19 carries.

Miami looks like a baseball or hockey team going through a sell-off phase. The Dolphins have traded another potential star in Kenyan Drake, with coaches paying lip-service to the idea that the move simply makes space for RB Mark Walton. Drafted by the Bengals in 2018, the former Miami Hurricane got his 1st big chance against the Bills, rushing 14 times for 66 yards. Last week in a 27-14 loss to Pittsburgh, the Dolphins as a team ran the ball just 19 times, and Walton carried it 11 times for 35 yards. That kind of puts to rest any notion that Miami was “improving its chance to win” with the trade of Drake to Arizona.

Miami is getting outscored 130-20 in the 2nd half of games this season. To make matters worse, the Miami defense also took another hit this weekend, losing CB Xavien Howard who was placed on IR as he wrestles with a knee injury.

You’d think the lowly state of affairs in Magic City would lead to a rush of wagers on the Jets, but the opposite has been true – Darnold’s team opened as a 1-to-3 favorite but action has expanded the visitors’ moneyline to (-170).

Bet against the public. Miami has no interest in winning football games in 2019, and while the Jets’ injury list resembles a sheet of war casualties after a gigantic invasion, at least New York is playing, coaching, and managing with the goal of weekly success…for now.

Pick: Jets to win 

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles

It’s a little bit of a shock to see the Chicago Bears a (+180) moneyline underdog at Philadelphia on Sunday. But after a hot start, the Monsters of the Midway are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS while the Eagles are level par at 4-4.

Just when it looked like the Bears were going to snap out of the funk they have been in since losing to Oakland, kicker Eddy Pineiro missed a 41-yard FG as time expired to allow the Chargers to hold on to a 17-16 victory. Pineiro had been solid up to that point, having made 12-of-14 on the season including 2-for-2 from 50+ yards, but couldn’t put it through with the game on the line.

After months of wondering how Chicago might use last April’s 3rd-round draft pick David Montgomery, the question was finally answered last week. Fantasy owners who spent a high pick on Montgomery after his explosive preseason were rewarded, as the rookie ripped off 135 yards on 27 carries, his maiden career 100-yard game. The only bad news is that Philly has a pretty good run defense, and gambling action is partially based on the Eagles’ chances to stop the Bears’ strength.

A once-feared Bear defense is struggling to get a grip. The loss of Akiem Hicks has left a huge hole in the front 4. Latavius Murray of the Saints had his way with Chicago 2 weeks ago, emphasizing that the Bears’ run defense has been softened. Murray ran for 119 yards and 2 scores, and the 36 points allowed by the Chicago defense was the team’s highest points-against total of the season by a large margin.

Doug Pederson’s Eagles were able to bounce-back from consecutive losses to the Vikings and Cowboys last week. Philadelphia traveled to Buffalo and hammered the Bills 31-13, rushing for over 200 yards as a team. On top of the success rushing, the Philadelphia run defense remained a brick wall, and Buffalo got most of its success on the ground through a scrambling Josh Allen.

Jordan Howard continues to be an effective back for the Eagles, averaging 4.3 YPC with 5 TD’s on the season, and last years 2nd-round pick Miles Sanders is emerging as the perfect lightning to Howard’s thunder. Sanders has battled minor injuries all season long while being brought along slowly, and while his # of touches is conservative, he ripped off his longest run of the year last week with a 65 yard touchdown jaunt.

Running well and stopping the run is a formula for success, but I believe gamblers are prone to underestimating Mitch Trubisky because it’s so fashionable to trash him. I’d be ready to take the Bears on the ML…except the Lincoln Financial Field setting will probably boost Philly’s defense and make things too hard on Chicago.

Pick: Eagles to win 

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Chargers

Green Bay continues to win football games, and the 7-1 Packers will likely bring a gaggle of Cheeseheads with them to Dignity Health Sports Park to face the 3-5 Los Angeles Chargers. The Pack lost WR Davante Adams to a turf toe injury in Green Bay’s only loss of the season in Week 4, but QB Aaron Rodgers is leading an offense without a proven #1 WR with a lot of success.

Over the last 2 contests, Rodgers has amassed 734 passing yards with 8 TD’s and 0 INT’s. The veteran is getting a huge boost from former UTEP star RB Aaron Jones, who had a huge 60 minutes catching passes in last week’s 31-24 win at Arrowhead. The 24-year-old 5th-round pick from 2017 caught 7 throws on 8 targets, and got loose for 159 yards while finding pay dirt twice. Meanwhile, Adams was seen leapfrogging teammates at practice this week, and looks on pace to return soon.

It’s no shocker that the Chargers are a (+165) underdog for the late-afternoon kickoff, even if Green Bay’s fine record wasn’t a factor. L.A. has suffered costly injuries since before the season began. The loss of emerging safety Derwin James was a huge blow, and rookie safety Nasir Adderly is also ailing. Offensively, the OL took a hit when veteran Russell Okung was forced to miss time with blood clots, and while he is set to return this week, the Bolts lost another huge cog in center Mike Pouncey who landed on IR this week.

Last week’s defeat of Chicago was a sloppy affair, as the Chargers converted just 2-of-10 on 3rd down, and only gained 231 yards of offense. But the defense was able to sack Mitchell Trubisky 4 times and snag an interception, setting up Philip Rivers and the Bolts’ offense to do just enough to win.

Handicappers have weighted home-field too liberally for the scrum in SoCal. The Pack should be a bigger favorite.

Pick: Green Bay (-3) ATS 

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

The Silver Star is favored by a full TD on the road thanks to the Giants having now lost 4 straight games since a 28-3 win over the Redskins back in Week 4. Dallas recently lost 3 straight after a 4-0 start, but America’s Team was able to right the ship in decisive fashion with a 37-10 win at home against the Philadelphia Eagles 2 weeks ago. Dallas has had 2 weeks to (try to) get healthy and prepare for New York.

Bettors recall the scrum earlier in the season that the Cowboys won 35-17. Dak Prescott threw for 405 yards and 4 TD’s, and Eli Manning was floundering under center for the G-Men.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CiPbCIpHUA

That’s changed of course. It is now the Daniel Jones Show in New York, but despite some promise (mostly the “promises” of pundits who still rank old-fashioned pocket QBs above all else) the plan has obviously has not translated into wins as of yet. Jones is completing 62% of his passes, the same number as Manning, but his 84.4 QB rating is a bit better than the 78.7 QBR Eli posted.

Dallas still has the best offense in the NFL from a yardage standpoint. Jason Garrett’s unit is averaging 449.3 YPG, throwing for 303 yards per game and rushing for 146. Prescott has the best QBR in the league, completing almost 71% of his passes for 2,123 yards and 12 TD’s, and ranks 2nd behind only Russell Wilson at the QB position according to Pro Football Focus.

Special teams could give the Cowboys an edge as well. PK Brett Maher has booted 6 FG’s over the last 2 games, including a 62-yarder against the Jets  and a 63-yarder against Philly.

However, I’m not making this MNF recommendation based on anything the Dallas Cowboys are doing specifically…but rather with the memory of 2 weeks ago still fresh in mind.

Arizona, a mediocre defensive team in 2019, destroyed the Giants’ pass-blocking at MetLife Stadium…and there’s no reason Dallas can’t do the same, bringing into play a smart pick on the Under (since the Giants may not score very often) in addition to Cowboys ATS.

Pick: Dallas (-7) or Under (48)