2 Crazy CFB Playoff Scenarios and How They Could Happen

I look at the CFB rankings and see 11 teams with a realistic shot of making the Playoff this year. These teams are LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Minnesota, Utah, Penn State, Oklahoma, and Baylor.

Time for some math. 11 teams are vying for 4 spots. 11C4 (combinations) tells us that we could make 330 different 4-team playoffs from the 11 competing teams. 11P4 (permutations) tells us that we could make 7,920 different playoff scenarios by reordering the teams.

With so many possibilities, I feel the need to break down a couple of the more fascinating scenarios and explain what it would take down the home stretch to see these happen in real life.

This will be fun!

Playoff Scenario #1 –

Yes, I had to start with a scenario that sees the Golden Gophers getting in (and ranked #1!). This team has not played in a New Year’s Day bowl since 1961.

You probably noticed this scenario has no SEC representation. The SEC has been a part of every CFB Playoff pool or BCS Championship game since 2006. This 4-team playoff could happen – here’s what would need to go down.

B10

In a miraculous home stretch, the Gophers run the table against Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin to clinch the B10 West and finish the regular season 12-0. Minnesota then beats Ohio State in the B10 championship, to become 13-0. A 13-0 B10 champion would definitely be given the #1 seed over Clemson (assuming LSU loses, as I’ll discuss later).

The Buckeyes beat Rutgers and PSU to clinch the B10 East. Penn St’s 2nd loss would eliminate the Nittany Lions from playoff contention. Ohio State then loses to Michigan on the final week of the regular season, finishing 11-1. Minnesota beats Ohio State in the B10 championship game, giving OSU their 2nd loss and ending OSU’s playoff hopes, but sending the Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl against Utah. Not a bad consolation prize.

A second loss to Ohio St ends the Nittany Lions’ playoff hopes.

SEC

The SEC is where things would have to get crazy. Bear with me.

In order to have an SEC-free playoff, LSU would need to lose twice while Bama and Georgia each lose once.

At 9-0 with wins over Texas, Auburn, Florida, and Bama – the Tigers would need to lose twice to miss out on the Playoff. LSU’s remaining games are against Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Texas A&M. The odds that the Tigers lose 2 of these games is incredibly slim.

The most likely scenario that gives LSU 2 losses is they lose one of their remaining regular season games and then lose the SEC championship game.

LSU’s most likely opponent in the SEC title game is Georgia. Here is the problem, though. If Georgia runs the table and finishes 11-1, an SEC title game victory would risk getting them into the Playoff. The committee would have a tough time deciding between 12-1 Georgia, 12-1 Oregon, and 13-0 Baylor. Georgia or LSU must lose one of their final 3 regular season games or an SEC team will make the Playoff.

The Bulldogs finish the season with Auburn, Texas A&M, and Georgia Tech. Georgia could lose to Auburn on the road this week which would allow this scenario to occur.

LSU must lose twice in the regular season if Alabama is going to play in the SEC championship game. An 11-1 Alabama team would most likely finish behind 13-0 Baylor in the rankings. A 12-1 Bama team with an SEC title would probably get the 4th spot ahead of Baylor.

If LSU does slip up twice against Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Texas A&M – the door is open for Alabama to reenter the playoff discussion.

ACC

The Tigers, who have not lost in a while, easily defeat Wake Forest and South Carolina in their final 2 regular season games and then stomp either Virginia, Pitt, or Virginia Tech in the ACC title game to finish 13-0.

A weaker schedule keeps Clemson ranked 2nd, behind Minnesota.

P12

Shaking off an early-season loss to Auburn, Oregon runs the table against Arizona, Arizona St, and Oregon St to finish the regular season 11-1. The Ducks then battle the Utes for Pac-12 supremacy and defeat them. Oregon advancings to 12-1 with a P12 championship.

The committee would have to put 13-0 Clemson ahead of 12-1 Oregon, but the Ducks still get that 3rd spot. A 12-1 finish is fairly likely to happen in Eugene.

Utah is in nearly the exact same position as Oregon. Running the table against UCLA, Arizona, and Colorado would give the Utes an 11-1 record heading into a P12 championship matchup with Oregon.

Oregon’s only loss is to highly-ranked Auburn. Utah lost to unranked USC. The committee will not view a 12-1 Utah team as favorably as a 12-1 Oregon team.

B12

The Bears run the table, defeating Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. This would deal Oklahoma their 2nd loss, removing the Sooners from playoff contention.

Baylor would then rematch and beat either Oklahoma or Texas in the B12 title game. It is unlikely to get to this point, but a 13-0 Baylor team would surely be ranked at least 4th in this scenario. The committee might even put Baylor 3rd, ahead of Oregon.

Playoff Scenario #2

I love this scenario because Georgia, Oklahoma, and Utah all recover from non-ranked early losses to make the Playoff.

Here is how things would need to shake out down the stretch.

SEC

The Tigers win their remaining 3 regular season games against Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Texas A&M – finishing 12-0 and earning a matchup with Georgia in the SEC title game. The Tigers lose to Georgia, ending the season with a 12-1 record – still good enough for the 2nd seed in the Playoff.

The Bulldogs win out against Auburn, Texas A&M, and Georgia Tech – ending the regular season at 11-1 and winning the SEC East. The Bulldogs then beat undefeated LSU in the SEC title game to improve to 12-1 and take the 1st seed in the Playoff.

If LSU wins out, Bama’s season is over. 12-1 Utah and 12-1 Oklahoma would surely get in ahead of an 11-1 and title-less Alabama.

B10

It’s going to take a lot to keep the B10 out of the Playoff.

Ohio St would need to lose twice to miss the Playoff. The Buckeyes finish the regular season with Rutgers, Penn St, and Michigan. If Ohio St slips up against both PSU and MICH, they will no longer be considered for playoff contention.

A more likely scenario is that Ohio St loses to either Penn St or Michigan but not both. A loss to Penn St would put Ohio St in serious jeopardy of missing the B10 title game. An 11-1 Ohio St team with no conference championship might make the Playoff as a 4th seed, but it’s questionable.

If Ohio St beats Penn St but loses to Michigan, it would require Minnesota rising up and beating OSU in the B10 title game to keep the Buckeyes out of the Playoff.

The Nittany Lions finish the regular season with Indiana, Ohio St, and Rutgers. A loss to any of these teams would take PSU out of playoff contention.

Given how the Gophers struggled to beat FCS and MWC teams early in the season, one loss might keep them out of the Playoff. The Gophers play a tough remaining schedule, closing with Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin.

To be safe, Minnesota would probably need 2 losses in this scenario. They would both have to come in the regular season, though, because we need the B10 West champ to beat either OSU or PSU in the title game.

ACC

Given how weak Clemson’s schedule is, one loss may keep them out of the Playoff. Clemson loses to either Wake Forest or South Carolina and finishes 11-1. A 12-1 Clemson with an ACC title may still make the Playoff.

To be safe, let’s say South Carolina beats Clemson and the Tigers lose in the ACC title game.

P12

If Utah is going to sneak into the 4th spot, they need to win out. Beating UCLA, Arizona, and Colorado would give the Utes a regular season record of 11-1. This would set up a matchup with Oregon in the P12 title game. Utah wins this game and is given the 4th seed as a 12-1 P12 champ.

Oregon needs to win out to make the Utah win in the P12 title game all the more impressive. Utah beating a top-10 11-1 Oregon team would get them into the Playoff. Beating a 9-3 Oregon team would not.

B12

The B12 is wide open for Oklahoma. The Sooners finish the regular season with Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma St. The Sooners need to win out. This would deal Baylor their first loss and eliminate the Bears from playoff contention.

Oklahoma would either rematch Baylor or Texas in the B12 title game and would need to beat them to remain a one-loss team.