As a native Michigander and Wolverine fan, I have seen a lot of Ohio State football games. Most were on Thanksgiving weekend and featured the Buckeyes killing my favorite team.
I remember Terrell Pryor and Dan Herron being unstoppable. Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde took over the offense for a couple years. J.T. Barrett, Cardale Jones, and Zeke Elliott were the next wave of dominant juggernauts.
Now, the role of Buckeye Gamebreaker belongs to Justin Fields, J.K. Dobbins, and Chase Young. There is a reason Michigan has not beaten Ohio State since 2011. The Buckeyes’ athletes are superior.
Ohio State has not only torched Michigan over the past 10 years, but the entire Big Ten conference. Take a look at OSU’s records vs each B10 opponent since 2009.
| Team | SU Record | ATS Record |
| IND | 11-0 | 4-7 |
| MICH | 9-1 | 5-4-1 |
| ILL | 8-0 | 5-3 |
| WISC | 8-1 | 6-2-1 |
| PENN ST | 8-2 | 5-5 |
| MARY | 6-0 | 4-2 |
| RUT | 6-0 | 5-1 |
| MICH ST | 6-3 | 5-4 |
| MINN | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| NEB | 5-1 | 5-1 |
| NW | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| IOWA | 3-1 | 0-3-1 |
| PUR | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Total | 82-12 | 51-40-3 |
Only Purdue has been able to figure out Ohio State. Michigan State has the 2nd-best record in the B10 against the Buckeyes in this span, and they are 3-6. That’s saying something!
Ohio State Playoff Bound in 2019
2019 has been a continuation of the Buckeyes’ decade-long stretch of dominance. Ohio State is 10-0, ranked #2 in the nation, and rosters arguably the best defensive player (Chase Young) and the best offensive player (Justin Fields) in college football.
What I am about to say may not be very popular: The home stretch may get a little rocky for Ohio State. This team has not been tested in 2019.
What?!?!? Ohio State’s average result this year is a 52-10 victory. How can you say they are fallible?
First, let’s look at who the Buckeyes have played. Only 2 ranked teams have snuck into the schedule – Cincinnati and Wisconsin. Those are good wins, right? Ehhhh … not really.
Ohio St – Cincinnati
Ohio St beat Cincy 42-0 in Week 2 – very early in the season. In Week 1, Cincinnati struggled at home against UCLA.
The Bruins were travelling across the country to meet the Bearcats. UCLA’s sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson was coming off a forgettable freshman season. His counterpart, sophomore Cincy QB Desmond Ridder, was sensational in his freshman year.
Despite the long travel and the clear advantage at quarterback, Cincy was only 2.5-point favorites heading into this matchup. Why? Because Vegas knows Cincy is not that good.
Ridder had no problems throwing the ball against UCLA, completing 18 of 26 passes for 242 yards and 2 TDs. Cincinnati’s running game was inefficient, though – totalling 180 yards on 46 carries, just 3.9 yards per attempt.
A slow running game, a pick, a fumble, and a missed field goal kept this game close, but Cincinnati took it 24-14. The final score does a poor job of indicating how outmatched UCLA was. UCLA played awful.
Cincinnati did not have much time to enjoy their 1-0 record. The Buckeyes were awaiting them in the Horseshoe the following week.
Against a poor UCLA squad, Cincinnati was not dominant on the ground. Their run offense was not there yet. Ohio State knew that stopping the Bearcats’ passing attack was the key to victory.
The Buckeyes held Ridder to 166 yards passing and 0 TDs. Mission accomplished. 42-0 win.
This was not a great victory for OSU because they only needed to stop the pass to be successful. The Bearcats were not going to run all over the Buckeyes. Contain Ridder, grab an early lead, and the game is over.
Ohio St – Wisconsin
The other ranked team OSU beat this year were the Badgers of Wisconsin. Before you gush about how great Wisconsin is this year, understand that we have seen two separate Badger teams in 2019: pre-Illinois Wisconsin and current Wisconsin.
Pre-Illinois Wisconsin was legendary defensively. Pre-Illinois Wisconsin allowed 3 total first-half points in 6 games! You read that right … 3 total first-half points in 6 games.
Pre-Illinois Wisconsin was allowing 4.8 points per game and 176.5 yards per game. Pre-Illinois Wisconsin was a shoo-in to the CFP. On October 26th, Ohio State played the other Wisconsin team – current Wisconsin.
Current Wisconsin is mortal. Current Wisconsin is 2-2. Current Wisconsin has allowed 26.3 points per game.
The Badgers are an entirely different team post-Illinois. When the Buckeyes beat the Badgers by 31, they were not beating the same team that held their opponents scoreless through the first 10 quarters of the season – they were playing a shell of that team.
How Does Penn State Look in 2019?
Ohio State finishes the 2019 regular season with 2 top-12 opponents – Penn State and Michigan. The media is already hyping The Game but I’m cautioning you not to forget about Penn State.
The offense in Happy Valley is legit. 36.8 points per game ranks 15th in the nation and 2nd in the B10. 426.6 yards per game ranks 4th in the B10. The Nittany Lions put up 79 on Idaho in Week 1. Only 1 other FBS team has scored 79 points this year – Maryland.
Ohio State is averaging 254 passing yards per game. Penn State is averaging 253.
The Nittany Lions have their running game working right now. Lead back Journey Brown averaged 8.9 yards per attempt with 2 touchdowns against Minnesota and totaled an even 100 yards on the ground with another touchdown against Indiana.
Penn State will be the toughest offense Ohio State has faced this year.
What does Ohio State do best on offense? They run. In what area does Penn State rank 4th in the nation? Rush defense.
Ohio State has never been forced to break from the script. The run has worked too well all year. The Nittany Lions’ strong front-7 will put Justin Fields in a new situation – having to throw to gain yards.
Penn State will also be the toughest defense Ohio State has faced this year. I’m not saying the Nittany Lions will dominate and shut Ohio State down, but this will be a new level of challenge for the Buckeyes. OSU will have to try some new things on offense and defense.
Mentally, Penn State is far tougher than Wisconsin. The Badgers’ first loss sent the team spiraling. The Lions bounced back from their first loss at Minnesota to take care of business against a resilient Indiana team.
Ohio State is going to receive Penn State’s best shot. PSU has nothing to lose. A win nearly guarantees the Lions a ticket to the B10 championship game and reopens the Playoff discussion in University Park. A loss changes nothing.
Penn State is going to empty their playbook and leave everything on the field. Experts don’t expect PSU to keep it close, so all the pressure is on the Buckeyes. Ohio State will get all they can handle Saturday.
The Game 2019 – Michigan vs Ohio State
Of course, I have to finish with The Game. The Wolverines are much like Wisconsin – they have played like two different teams this season. Unlike Wisconsin, current Michigan is the better Michigan.
The transition for first-year Michigan OC Josh Gattis was rough. Mistakes plagued the Middle Tennessee game, Army took Blue to overtime, and pre-Illinois Wisconsin shut the Wolverines out in the first half.
Michigan exploded for 52 points in late September against Rutgers, but this supposed offensive improvement was dismissed because … it’s Rutgers.
The switch was not flipped until the second quarter of the Penn State game on October 19th. PSU was up 21-0 and giving Michigan all they could handle. Gattis and the offense decided then was the perfect time to begin moving the ball.
Penn State could not stop Michigan after going up 21-0. Michigan scored 3 touchdowns and dropped an easy pass for a 4th one, losing a nail-biter 28-21. This was a moral victory for a team having problems putting up points.
Since the resurrection against PSU, Michigan is a different beast. Harbaugh and the boys throttled top-15 Notre Dame 45-14 and then killed Maryland on the road 38-7. Next, Michigan demolished their in-state rival Michigan State 44-10, the largest win against Sparty since 2002.
Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson even tied the record for most passing yards by a Wolverine QB vs Michigan State (384).
Ohio State is not playing the same Michigan team that went to OT with Army. They are not playing the same Michigan team that was shutout in the first half against Wisconsin. They are not playing the same Michigan team that managed only 10 points at home against Iowa.
Ohio State is playing the new Michigan – the offense-competent Michigan. The Michigan averaging 41.3 points per game over their last 3.
If Ohio State thinks they are going to waltz to a 12-0 record, they need to wake up. Waiting in the wings are the 2 best B10 teams not named Ohio State. Yes, Ohio State is superior to both Penn State and Michigan, but PSU and Michigan will present new challenges to the Buckeyes.
They will make OSU uncomfortable and place them in new situations. How will OSU respond? We don’t know.
These games will be unpredictable – an experiment. How will an elite team respond to attempted knockout punches two weeks in a row?
I know two things:
- Penn State and Michigan are both going to give OSU their best shots. OSU has not seen competition like PSU and MICH this year
- In unpredictable matchups, lean underdog
Ohio State is an awesome team. I admit that. If they want to finish 12-0, they’ll need to earn it.
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
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