February 6, 2011. The Aaron Rodgers-led Packers were celebrating their first Super Bowl win in 14 years. Favre who? It was at this point even the most stubborn of Packers fans had to admit they were in capable hands with the new QB.
Rodgers had just turned 27. A driven, star quarterback in one of the most passionate football cities on Earth is a lethal combination. Football fans everywhere figured there were plenty more rings to come for the Cali boy. What followed was pure disappointment.
2012 playoffs – instant loss. 2013 playoffs – one win, then out. 2014 playoffs – instant loss. 2015 playoffs – one win, then out. 2016 playoffs – same story. 2017 playoffs – made it all the way to the NFC title game, but lost. 2018 and 2019 playoffs – the Packers were watching from home.
Here we are getting ready for the 2019-20 NFL Playoffs. Minnesota at New Orleans and Seattle at Philadelphia are the NFC Wild Card Weekend matchups.
By defeating the mighty David Blough and the fearsome Lions in Week 17, the Green Bay Packers earned themselves an extra week of rest.
Dubbed the “win-ugly Packers” by the media, Green Bay has somehow played themselves to a 13-3 record and the 2 seed despite a point differential of just +63. For context, the other 5 teams in the league who managed at least 12 wins had an average differential of +175.
There is a lot to like about this team, though. Rodgers remains one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Green Bay also boasts solid skill players, a revamped defense, and … intangibles.
As a lifelong Detroit Lions fan, Green Bay is easily the most frustrating NFL opponent to play. Be it a heads up play, a beneficial call, or some advantageous weather on the Frozen Tundra – the Packers always seem to have a leg up on their competition.
The Packers are the New England Patriots of the NFC.
Can Green Bay win the Super Bowl? Absolutely. Green Bay is 3.5 to 1 to win the NFC and 10 to 1 to go all the way. Will they? Let’s talk about it.
Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones
Aaron Rodgers is having an interesting year. Rodgers turned 36 during this season, his 12th as a starter. By team record, this is Rodgers’ 2nd-best season. By QBR, it is his worst.
Folks in Green Bay consider the ‘A-word” taboo, but Rodgers is aging. He has always managed the game well, but the 2-time MVP is becoming more of a game manager and less of a playmaker.
In his prime, Rodgers was gaining at least 8 yards per pass attempt. In 2011 he averaged 9.2. This year, he averaged 7.0. In fact, Rodgers has not gained over 7.4 yards per pass attempt for an entire season since 2014.
Fewer downfield shots would obviously lower Rodgers’ Y/A number, but fewer completions would do the same. At just 62.0% in 2019, Rodgers logged the 2nd-lowest completion percentage of his career. Alarmingly, both his completion percentage and QBR have dropped each season since 2016.
If the decline began this season, you could blame it on new HC Matt LaFleur and his offensive overhaul, but this is not the case.
So if it is all gloom and doom for Rodgers, how are the Packers 13-3? The answer: He is a great game manager.
For example, Aaron Rodgers has led the NFL in interception percentage each of the past 2 seasons. When the play isn’t there, Rodgers gets rid of it. He avoids the crucial mistakes, keeping his team within striking distance.
Rodgers’ sack rate is also down. In his prime, Rodgers was getting sacked a lot. He was even the league’s most sacked QB in both 2009 and 2012. His 2019 sack rate of 6.0% was the 3rd-lowest of his career. Once again, if the play isn’t there, Rodgers is smart enough to get rid of it.
The boring, check down throws. The thrown away passes. They may anger fans in the moment who are hoping for a first down or a touchdown, but they allow Rodgers to be vintage Rodgers in the 4th quarter.
Since he became a starter in 2008, Rodgers has averaged 1.3 4th quarter comebacks and 1.9 game-winning drives per season. In 2019, he led 2 4th quarter comebacks and 3 game-winning drives, both above his career average.
Of course, Rodgers has had some help (and I’m not talking about from the refs as I’ll get to in a minute). The main recipient of many of these shorter throws is his feature back Aaron Jones.
Just turning 25 years old in December, Jones is being called upon nearly twice as often as last season. His rush attempts are up 77% and his receptions 88% from last year.
As a result, Jones is easily the Packers’ leading rusher with 1,084 yards and is 2nd on the team in receptions (49) and 3rd in receiving yards (474).
Jones has a knack for finding the endzone. His 19 total touchdowns in 2019 was tied with Christian McCaffrey for most in the NFL and was just 1 shy of the all-time Packers touchdown record.
One Aaron managed the game and came alive when his team needed it. The other reached paydirt all season long. Together, the Aarons were one-half of the 13-3 equation. Let’s talk about defense.
A Revamped Packers Defense
Green Bay has prioritized defense in the first round of each of the last 2 drafts, grabbing Louisville corner Jaire Alexander in 2018 and Maryland safety Darnell Savage in 2019.
Alexander is an excellent complement to the Packers’ other corners Tramon Williams and Kevin King. Many teams avoid throwing Williams’ way, so Alexander and King were both targeted a lot this season. Alexander was credited with 17 passes defensed, the 4th-most in the NFL. King defensed 15 passes this season and snagged 5 picks, tied for 2nd-most in the league.
Darnell Savage put together an excellent rookie campaign. The Packers called upon the 22-year-old to start 14 games and Savage held up well – totaling 55 tackles, 2 picks, and 2 forced fumbles.
With a very young secondary, Green Bay knew applying pressure to opposing quarterbacks was going to be key for defensive success. The Packers signed 4-year veteran DE Za’Darius Smith in the offseason for this purpose. Even the most optimistic of fans could not have predicted what Za’Darius would do.
Grading out at 90.2 on Pro Football Focus, Smith quickly became one of the league’s most feared pass rushers. His 93 QB pressures were 1st in the league. His 13.5 sacks were 6th-best.
Smith is a game disrupter who has become even more dangerous as the season progresses. With Za’Darius in top form and a young secondary with a full year of experience playing together, the Packers’ defense is just as dangerous as their offense, if not more.
Intangibles – The Packers’ Edge
NY Post
Remember this interception … er, I mean touchdown pass?
I can totally objectively, without any hint of bias, state that this was the last time the Packers were hurt by a referee’s call. This was September of 2012 with the replacement refs. I guess they didn’t get the we’re supposed to help Green Bay at all costs memo.
The real refs are back, and rest assured, they aren’t missing any more Packers’ calls.
Daily Herald
Ahh, the Miracle in Motown. Yet another Phantom *insert penalty here*.
Rodgers is the master of drawing flags. He understands that 15-yard penalties are extremely valuable, especially in crunch time, and does everything in his power to entice defenders into committing them and referees into calling them.
Just last week, for example, Rodgers was driving late in a tied game with the Lions. He scrambled out of the pocket, ran a few yards downfield, and then slid very late to avoid a big hit.
The Lions’ defender avoided hitting Rodgers the best he could, given the late slide. Shoulder-to-shoulder contact occurred. If David Blough would have been on the receiving end of this contact, it’s surely going to be a no-call.
White hat Shawn Hochuli (son of everyone’s favorite ref Ed Hochuli), bailed Rodgers out with an unnecessary roughness penalty. Rodgers, knowing that he successfully lobbied an extra 15 yards in an important drive, gave a sly little first-down point right in front of Hochuli himself.
Rodgers is not making as many 15-yard throws downfield as he used to, so he is relying on more trickery, like hard counts and penalty drawing, to move the ball. Just as effective, but 100x more frustrating for the opponent.
Rodgers is like James Harden in the way he draws fouls. It’s perfectly legal and probably a good strategy, it just seems cheap at times. Of course, this is coming from someone who is always on the losing end of these calls. If Rodgers was playing for the Lions, I would be praising his instinct for drawing penalties.
Snowy, cold weather is the intangible most associated with the Green Bay Packers. Well guess what, Sunday, January 12th is looking to be especially wintery this year.
The Packers’ Divisional Round opponent is not yet determined. It will be the Saints if New Orleans wins or the Seahawks/Eagles winner if New Orleans loses.
Two things are for certain. The game is in Green Bay and the forecast, at least right now, looks like a blizzard.
High of 32 degrees, 18 mile an hour winds, wind chill of 20 degrees, and the kicker … 6 to 7 inches of snow.
This could be another Ice Bowl. You know Rodgers and the Packers wouldn’t want it any other way. Assuming this storm hits as predicted, Green Bay is at a huge advantage in the Divisional Round.
New Orleans is 8-point favorites over Minnesota at home in the Superdome on Wild Card Weekend. The Saints are the Packers’ most likely first matchup.
In New Orleans, the Saints would probably be favored by a touchdown. In Green Bay, the Packers will be at least -3 or -4. The Pack thrive in these kinds of conditions. The Saints will crank up the AC in their practice facility and maybe even truck in some fake snow in an attempt to prepare, but nothing can prepare you for playing in conditions like that.
So can the Packers win the Super Bowl? If things play out like they are supposed to, Green Bay has a pretty comfy path.
Stay tuned later this week for Wild Card Weekend picks and predictions. See you on top!
Kreighton loves sports, math, writing, and winning — he combines all of them as a writer for WagerBop. His favorite sports to review are MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAABB.
Leave a Reply