UEFA Champions League Round of 16: Second Leg Odds, Totals, and Predictions

I’m going to assume that most WagerBop readers already know what goes into the “2-legged” Champions League format. But not everyone understands it – in fact I didn’t fully get it until a few years ago. So let’s (very briefly) recap what gamblers are and are not wagering on prior to the back end of this UEFA cycle’s Round of 16.

As discussed in our 2020 Champions League futures-odds analysis, a speculator lives to fight another day if her pick-to-win the competition loses an opening leg. Goals from the 1^st and 2^nd matches (with alternating host-venue advantage) between Round-of-16 opponents are counted together as an “aggregate” total, and the club with more goals after 180+ minutes of football wins and advances to the quarterfinals. That’s easy enough, but what if there’s an aggregate deadlock at the end of the 2^nd leg?

UEFA uses the “away goals rule,” a tie-breaker in which the club that has scored more goals at the opponent’s stadium wins if the teams’ aggregate goal totals are alike. Prior to the rule’s implementation, managers would often call for staid, conservative game plans whenever their teams opened the round on the road. A drawn result in the opening leg set up a “winner take all” match at home, sometimes with the aid of yellow and red cards taken by a frustrated opponent which had tried to force the issue.

If neither side has scored more away goals, however, and aggregate tallies are drawn after the 2^nd leg, the clubs go to a penalty-kick round, or “penalties” to determine a victor.

Gamblers do not bet on multiple legs or an aggregate winner unless selecting special markets like a “to-advance” prop betting line. Moneylines, totals, and spreads on each leg are simply for that day’s (or evening’s) match.

However, that does not mean the result of the 1^st leg doesn’t play heavily into bookmaking and handicapping tactics going into the 2^nd leg.

Take Chelsea F.C. for instance – among my (ahem) wonderful long-shot recommendations to advance in the Champions League. Newbies may be confused to see Pensioners at (+700) odds to win the upcoming fixture with Bayern Munich at Allianz Arena given that Stern des Südens cruised 3-0 at Stamford Bridge in the opening leg. Wouldn’t the 3-goal deficit make it almost impossible for Chelsea to come back and win on aggregate goals? Yes, of course. But if the Premier League club happens to upset Bayern 1-0 or 2-1 or even 3-0 on March 18^th, winning the battle but losing the war, the underdog ML still pays off. Arguably, Chelsea has better chances to win the leg – not the round – given that FCB has a cushy lead and can get away with a lack of urgency on the attack. Bettors must consider not only the form of each club, but the outcome of the 1^st match and the circumstances teams find themselves in as a result.

There are plenty of closer aggregate scores than 3-0 halfway through the round. Even a 1-goal result in an opening leg can still profoundly affect tactical choices in the 2^nd leg – and the tactics of the 2^nd leg can change the strategy around totals and spreads in addition to moneyline odds-to-win.

Where is the smart cash going with about a week to go before the next kickoff?

Score following opening leg included next to all match-ups. Since the WagerBop team is once again splitting UEFA predictions, not all matches are in chronological order. Keep scrolling until you find your favorites!

RB Leipzig vs Tottenham Hotspur (1-0)

If there’s a blueprint for how an underdog can successfully open a 2-legged round against a quality club, “Red Bulls” of Leipzig drew it up on February 19^th. Spurs has made progress with famed manager Mourinho at the helm, but when an injury to Harry Kane struck Tottenham at a bad time (is there ever a good time to lose a star striker?) and forced Spurs into a 4-4-2 formation with Lucas Moura and young Dele Alli up front, the visitors from Bundesliga took advantage with a methodical game plan. Red Bulls were physical enough in the opening leg, taking 17 fouls and a handful of yellow cards. But the German club also possessed the ball nearly 60% of the match and did not allow Spurs a comfort zone on the attack. Tottenham supporters groaned as a penalty kick found the net behind Hugo Lloris in the 2^nd half, meaning that the English side must out-score Leipzig on the road to earn a quarterfinal bid.

1-goal outcomes don’t matter quite as much vis-à-vis the away-goals rule when it’s only 1-0. (If you’ve given up multiple away goals to a strong opponent, as Chelsea has, that’s another story.) Tottenham can advance with a 1-0 win and a successful penalty round at Red Bull Arena on March 10^th. Spurs could also win the 2^nd match 2-1 and advance thanks to scoring 2 away goals to Leipzig’s 1.

Bookmakers do not like Mourinho’s chances to steer a wounded lineup past Red Bulls before Kane or Heung-min Son can return to the pitch. It doesn’t help that Spurs are taking criticism after losing to Wolves in a domestic league match. Still, at least 2 betting markets on the 2^nd leg that appear mispriced. Bovada Sportsbook’s 4-to-1 line on Tottenham is awfully long for a marquee U.K. club against any German team not called Bayern Munich (even though Red Bulls are giving FCB a run for the Bundesliga title this season). Also, the Under (2.5) comes with a (+105) payoff, a generous price that overlooks the likelihood of Leipzig trying to defend its way to the quarterfinals and prevent a winning aggregate goal from Tottenham – especially if the fixture is deadlocked at 1-1 midway through the 2^nd half.

Pick: Tottenham (+390) or Under

Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid (0-1)

There are 2 schools of thought on handicapping teams still playing in more than 1 prestigious competition. Some ‘cappers prefer to look at the totality of a club’s record, others believe it’s more logical to focus on what they’ve been doing in the event at hand. It’s true that managers plan differently and teams execute differently in league play and in tournaments (let’s face it, they call it a Champions League but it’s really a big round-robin + knockout bracket with only a 6-game “season”) with some clubs (like Man City) focusing more on winning Europe and some more determined to prevail on their domestic table.

But it would be silly to overlook what just happened to Liverpool. With less than a dozen matches to go in a heretofore-unbeaten 2019-20 EPL campaign, Reds dropped 3 points in a stunning 0-3 result against Watford. Hornets had won a grand total of 5 times in 27 matches prior to Saturday’s upset.

Is it a fluke loss that will only strength Liverpool’s resolve in leg #2 against an Atlético Madrid already leading by a goal? Or are there serious issues at Anfield right now? Jürgen Klopp is telling the media that he’d be foolish to question a group of players who could still easily surpass Man City’s record for most wins in a Premier League season. But the team hasn’t had a cracking performance – at least not vis-à-vis the end result – since beating Saints 4-0 on February 1^st. Word has it Klopp has his eye on a lineup boost, potentially signing the attacking midfielder Jack Grealish away from Villa.

I’d pick the Spanish side at current (+650) odds, but I have to believe Reds will be back on top of things by the time the match on March 11^th rolls around.

Pick: Liverpool (-1) ATS

Manchester City vs Real Madrid (2-1)

Now here’s a Champions League gambling line that I fail to understand. Real Madrid is a 4-to-1 underdog to score more goals than Man City at City of Manchester Stadium on March 17^th.

Remember, the teams’ agendas in the match are as important as relative talent, speed, and quality. City won the opening leg 2-1 which means that Real Madrid can score a goal, post a clean sheet, and still lose without even going to penalty kicks. Sky Blues would have scored more away goals in that scenario.

No, that doesn’t mean City is necessarily less likely to win or draw. However, it does mean if the visitors from La Liga hold a 1-0 lead in the 2^nd half, Pep Guardiola’s side will be more concerned with defending than scoring – City won’t need an equalizer to advance. Real’s moneyline could win with a pyrrhic 1-goal advantage on the scoreboard which still eliminates the club from UEFA contention.

Are we overlooking Sergio Ramos’ red card? The Los Blancos defender committed what was deemed an heinous foul on Gabriel Jesus of Man City late in Sky Blues’ comeback win in the opening leg on 2/26. That means he can’t appear on 3/17, even though the club is busy appealing the ruling. However, my handicap of Real’s (+400) odds has little to do with a scenario in which Citizens are pressing for goals and only a renowned back 4 is tasked with somehow holding off the hosts. It could still happen, but the chances are lessened due to circumstances.

Last but not least, a starting 11 that features names like Eden Hazard, Luka Modrić, and Gareth Bale won’t be unable to compete with Manchester City even if the captain is missing.

Pick: Real Madrid

Bayern Munich vs Chelsea F.C. (3-0)

We have seen insane upsets and surprise results this season involving the top clubs in European football. Watford over Liverpool. Norwich City over Man City. Paris Saint-Germain giving up 2 goals in 3 minutes to lose to Grey Poupon Dijon FCO.

However, I am convinced we will not see a stunning outcome in Munich on March 18^th. For a start, the injuries suffered by Pensioners amount to a nightmare Frank Lampard can’t do anything about – Chelsea’s current transfer restrictions have helped to create a perfect storm. The lineup gets greener and greener as time goes on. It’s not as if a healthy English side had a bad day and lost 0-3 with a fighting chance to recover. At this point, Blues supporters are just hoping the club can hold on and finish high enough on the domestic table and earn a marquee UEFA bid in 2020-21.

Bayern is also working to reestablish dominance in Bundesliga, poised at 1^st on the table and having suffered only 1 loss across all competitions since early December.

But again, you’ve got to question whether there are ML gamblers out there who – this would be really dumb – are betting on Bayern’s market while not realizing it’s for the match, not the aggregate. Chelsea’s odds-to-win are (+700) which makes sense in an intuitive way, since the club is not having a great last few weeks of winter and its supporters are depressed. That could change by the 18^th, though, and Chelsea “winning” 1-0 or 2-1 in Munich wouldn’t bother Bavarians all that badly. The German side would still waltz into the Champions League quarterfinals without breaking a sweat.

Draw (+400) appears to be the best bet though. I can see Bayern manager Hansi Flick deciding that resting players from his top 11 in a cautious 2^nd half (once Chelsea needs something like 3 or 4 goals in 20 minutes to advance) is more important than pure quality on flicks around the opposing box. Blues may score a “consolation” goal or 2 to draw the match even if FCB out-plays Willy Caballero’s backline again.

At the risk of pounding an obvious point, unless something special happens in the opening 45+ minutes this fixture will be “academic” by the end.

The live Over market may also be a great halftime pick if Chelsea manages an unlikely 1-0 or 2-0 advantage and stirs-up a pitched battle. Bavarians are likely to roar if that occurs.

Pick: Draw  

There’s only 1 man at WagerBop who’s qualified to tout a slew of rapid-fire matches outside of the Premier League’s purview, and that’s Nikola Velickovic. Below are Nikola’s recommended bets on 4 upcoming Round of 16 follow-up legs – Valencia vs Atalanta on March 10^th, PSG vs Borussia Dortmund on March 11^th, Juventus vs Lyon on March 17^th, and Barcelona vs Napoli on March 18^th.

Valencia vs Atalanta (1-4)

After being trashed 4-1 in Milan three weeks ago, the Bats are in one hell of a trouble. Having to chase a three-goal deficit against the most efficient attack of the Serie A, looks pretty unrealistic. Valencia finally won beating Betis, 2-1, stopping a five-game losing streak. Meanwhile, La Dea once again showcased its fantastic offensive arsenal, packing seven goals against Lecce on the road. It was their fifth straight win, and during that stretch, they’ve scored 21 goals. So, we will focus on goals here, because the hosts have to chase the result, and on the other side, we have an excellent offense.

Over 1.5 goals in the second half sits at -150.

PSG vs Borussia Dortmund (1-2)

Paris Saint Germain is awaiting Borussia Dortmund, and it seems that the Saints can’t wait for the match to begin. They want to make up for the loss at Signal Iduna Park, and to prove their critics that it was just a bad night, nothing more than that. A 2-1 loss should be reachable for goalscoring machinery from Parc des Princes. Just look at their efficiency in recent times; they rarely scored under four goals in one match.

PSG to win with -1.5 goal Asian Handicap is +150, and that is our choice here.

Juventus vs Lyon (0-1)

The Old Lady doesn’t have any rook for calculations. They need to win. And they need to do it by at least two-goal margin. Lyon has a 1-0 lead from the first 90 minutes, and having in mind that the French side has its qualities, especially when playing on the counter-attacks. This match will be the ultimate test for Maurizio Sarri, whose position in Juve is not certain anymore. The fans are not supporting him as before, and there are some rumors that the chemistry in the locker room is also bad.

Still, we don’t believe that there would be a surprise here, which is why we bet on Juve to win with an Asian Handicap 1.5 goals. Odds are at +120.

Barcelona vs Napoli (1-1)

Barcelona suffered a nasty defeat at Santiago Bernabeu. Real was better than Blaugrana and jumped over them in the standings. That is why coach Setien needs to lift the fighting spirit of his boys ASAP and prepare them for the battle with Napoli. Otherwise, things are not going to be very pleasant or the Spanish powerhouse. Napoli has just one defeat and a draw with seven wins over the last nine events, and the form of this crew is going upwards. All in all, this is the biggest challenge for Barcelona since the campaign started. They do look shaky, but we strongly believe that Messi and the co. have what it takes to defeat this rival.

We go halftime/fulltime Barca for the odds at +105.