SEC Football Preview: Preseason Vegas Odds and Predictions

Georgia Bulldog fans were understandably in no mood to go over the positives after witnessing Tua Tagovailoa’s heartbreaking OT heroics in the College Football Playoff. But with time and perspective, hopefully they can see that something good did come of it all.

The SEC claimed the mantle of “best conference in CFB” once again.

Not the deepest conference. The ACC, maybe even the Big Ten, can vie for that honor. Not the most pristine conference. Quarterback play in the SEC has been lagging until very recently. But the best conference, the league from which multiple teams in any given year can wind up Vegas favorites in the CFP.

SEC football again reigns supreme. Just look at the postseason. Georgia played Oklahoma on OU’s terms and still won, and Clemson was never allowed to breathe by Alabama.

The Crimson Tide’s dominance has its side-effects. So does Georgia’s rise to the fore. With the Vanderbilts and Kentuckys of the world more destined for also-ran status than ever, where is the betting value?

Sleepers make bad futures picks in such a top-heavy conference as the SEC. So let’s look at the favorites for a conference-winner prediction, and then see if there are any win-total locks hidden in the haystack.

Saban’s Folly Opens the Door

Alabama head coach Nick Saban has made a rare blunder this summer. In fact, it could be the biggest unforced error of his career.

Established starter Jalen Hurts (who has started in 4 playoff games, 3 of which the Tide won) has found himself on the wrong side of a QB battle with Tagovailoa, who became the darling of Tuscaloosa with the overtime heave-ho. Instead of being up-front with Hurts, Saban has allowed bad feelings to simmer between the junior signal-caller and the coaching staff.

Saban also went out and told the media that he may cut Hurts by September. The student-athlete is obviously hurt and has vented candidly to reporters.

There’s probably another case of a coach giving up on a long-time key contributor after watching another kid throw a long pass for a touchdown. That doesn’t make it sound any less like an Adam Sandler movie. Tagovailoa is crazy-talented and as strong as an ox. But ‘Bama could conceivably return to the CFP with either QB at the helm, so why alienate one of them?

The possibility of Tagovailoa underwhelming or getting injured, and Saban having nowhere to turn except to a disgruntled former starter who loathes him, makes any bet on Alabama to win division, conference or CFP a bowl of bunk.

Strange to say about a defending playoff champion that usually puts the nation’s best defense on the field.

Georgia is a solid bet to win the SEC at (+250), and teams like Mississippi State and LSU are interesting line-forecasters who could pay off down the road as upset picks over Alabama.

I’m really liking Auburn as the best value pick, however. Gus Malzahn’s devilish Wing-T offense just needed a difference-maker QB, and it has one now in Jarrett Stidham. The front-7 is bruising, LB Deshaun Davis flies to the ballcarrier, and an opening win over Washington would give the squad confidence.

The Tigers are anywhere between (+600) and (+1000) to win the SEC at various sportsbooks. Auburn’s not a bad conference-winner pick at 6/1. But a 10-to-1 payoff on the 2017 Iron Bowl winner makes the bet way too sweet to resist.

Liner Notes: Total Win Betting Tips on the SEC

Things might get worse before they get better with Jimbo Fisher coaching at Texas A&M. His QB situation is unsettled, and whoever plays won’t have Christian Kirk to throw to. The defensive backs haven’t been great. The Aggies’ win-total line of (7) seems too arduous a task. Lean: Under

Kentucky’s (5 ½) O/U feels like another tempting under bet. Defense is a major issue, and pass-rusher Denzil Ware has transferred away. Only a trio of planned thrash-for-cash gimmes can salvage .500…but watch out for a spoiler from MTSU on 11/17. Lean: Under

It’s now or never for senior Kyle Shurmur and Vanderbilt. I’m liking the Commodores to exceed their line (4) thanks to a couple of gimme-games and some winnable clashes down the stretch. Lean: Over