Alex Bregman is Getting Robbed

He’s only 25 but he has a World Series ring, has won All-Star Game MVP, and is set to make 100 million dollars over the next 5 years.

That is the Astros’ third baseman Alex Bregman I was describing … he’s pretty good.

Bregman has played 2 full seasons for Houston and is now 52 games into his 3rd. Here is a peek at the righty’s career offensive stats.

Year	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB
2017	.284	19	71	88	17
2018	.286	31	103	105	10
2019	.262	15	35	32	2
Career	.280	73	243	256	31

A .286 average with 30/100/100 is awesome! Following a good rookie year, players tend to hit a wall – the sophomore slump. This was not the case for Bregman who instead used the 2018 season to solidify himself as one of the games’ best third baseman.

52 games into 2019 is actually a perfect time to check in on Bregman because he has averaged 156 games played in his first 2 full seasons. This means that we are exactly at the one-third mark of his season.

Multiplying all of his cumulative stats by 3 gives us the following line: 45 homers, 105 RBIs, 96 runs, and 6 steals. That’s pretty darn good, folks.

The sticklers among us are sounding sirens and alarms because they notice that Bregman’s average has dipped over 20 points from last year’s mark. My goal today is to quell those fears and show that Bregman is not declining as a hitter – he is just getting robbed.

Talkin’ About BABIP Again

BABIP stands for batting average on balls in play. I talk about it a lot, so I’m going to assume we are all clear on the concept (click that last link if you aren’t).

Right around .300 is the MLB average BABIP. If your BABIP is .250, you are unlucky. I am sure the following 7 hitters would love to have BABIPs of .250 because right now it seems like everything they hit is being caught.

Of all qualifying hitters, these 7 have the lowest May BABIPs in baseball. Notice Bregman at 7th on the list.

Name	May BABIP	May AVG
Justin Smoak	.130	.176
Daniel Vogelbach	.149	.183
Peter Alonso	.156	.192
Kolten Wong	.175	.171
Rougned Odor	.178	.184
Renato Nunez	.180	.195
Alex Bregman	.188	.253

You probably saw that Bregman is the only hitter on this list whose May batting average is not dreadful. .253 is not bad.

There are two ways that a hitters’ batting average can far exceed his BABIP – lots of homers and low strikeout totals. Bregman does both of these.

Not only has Bregman really cut back on the Ks this year, but his walks are up, as well. He is striking out more than he is walking in 2019 – something that only 8 qualifying hitters can claim.

Here is a list of those same 7 hitters from before, but now with their K, BB, OBP, and HR numbers for the month of May.

Name	K%	BB%	OBP	HR
Justin Smoak	15.5%	20.6%	.361	6
Daniel Vogelbach	21.7%	14.5%	.301	6
Peter Alonso	30.2%	4.7%	.256	8
Kolten Wong	14.3%	7.1%	.238	2
Rougned Odor	30.1%	7.2%	.244	6
Renato Nunez	25.6%	4.9%	.244	6
Alex Bregman	14.2%	15.1%	.368	10

Simply amazing. Of the 7 unluckiest hitters this month, Bregman strikes out the least, walks the most, reaches base most often, and goes deep the most.

This dude is a stud. He cannot catch a break at the plate right now and yet he is so talented that he is still putting up monster numbers.

Bregman is tied for the 8th-most home runs in the MLB right now (with 15) and is ranked 19th in offensive runs above average (Off).

When the hits finally start falling, Alex Bregman’s numbers will start reflecting the truth – that he is one of the game’s best all-around hitters.