Analytical Picks – Numbers to Consider for Week 4 NFL Betting

Here’s your weekly dose of numbers-based betting angles.

This isn’t a complete breakdown of the 16-game NFL slate nor is it an insightful look into the minds of the head coaches as they gameplan for their Week 4 matchups.

My job is to alert bettors of the underlying trends lurking in the water. Betting the NFL is going to become increasingly complex each week. This season is starting to get serious. The window on the classic “bet dogs early in the season” approach is shut.

This doesn’t mean the numbers and trends game is over. In fact, the opposite! We just need to adapt.

Here’s what is going on numbers-wise in a couple of key spots on the NFL Week 4 slate.

The Data Says to Bet Against Lions and Steelers in Week 4

Road game. Divisional opponent. You’re a dog.

Already, you know it’s gonna be a fight. It’s gonna be intense.

Statistically, divisional matchups are more tightly contested than non-divisional. They take more out of you. More draining … especially on the road … especially when you come up short and lose.

It’s not that easy to simply “bounce back” after a game like this. Small to moderate home favorites (a touchdown or less) following such a game have performed terribly over the past 10 seasons.

Excluding 2020, these home favorites are 36-45-3 ATS (44.4%). Betting against them would yield an ROI of just over 6%.

Week 4 NFL Games Which Fit This System

Seahawks (+4.5) @ Lions

Siding with the numbers means taking Seattle in this one as the Lions are fresh off a blown-lead road loss to Minnesota last week.

Seattle opened as 6.5-point dogs on Monday and are already down to (+4.5) on Bovada Sportsbook. The sharps can see the trends, too!

Jets (+3.5) @ Steelers

Pittsburgh got beat down as dogs in Cleveland last week – making them prime fading candidates in Week 4.

New York is not a sexy pick, but the cash you’ll be rolling in after cashing their ticket is sexy in any culture.

This line has remained at (+3.5) since opening.

The Data Says to Fade Thursday Night Winners – Betting Against the Cleveland Browns

Cleveland pummeled Pittsburgh 29-17 on Thursday night of Week 3. The Browns entered as the favored team.

The Browns must now wait out an extended week before ramping it back up and going on the road to Atlanta as 1.5-point favorites.

Large favorites (greater than a touchdown) have fared decently well in this position. Small favorites (a field goal or less) have not.

Since the beginning of the 2010s decade, favored winners of the Thursday game have floundered as small road favorites the following week. This excludes 2020 (of course) and those rare times when a team plays on back-to-back Thursdays.

It’s a small sample size, but teams in this position are 6-10 ATS (37.5%). The over has also hit in 12 of the 16 (75%) games fitting this criteria.

Browns @ Falcons (+1.5) – Total @ 50.0 (over)

You could get (+3) on Atlanta at the opening but not anymore. Once again, the sharps are flocking toward the numbers pick. The total has also shot way up – opening at 45.

The odds say to go Atlanta and over … but these line shifts may have sucked up all of our value.

Betting Teams in Back-to-Back Divisional Games – Rams Look Like Good Week-4 Bet

Teams who both won and covered on the road against a divisional opponent are pretty good the following week when going on the road as dogs against another divisional opponent.

Since the beginning of the 2010s decade (and excluding 2020, of course), such teams are 8-3-1 ATS (72.7%) and have won 5 of the last 6 ATS and 4 of the last 6 SU.

Week 4 NFL Games Which Fit This System

Rams (+2) @ 49ers

The Rams handled Arizona on the road last week and now turn their attention to a Monday Night duel at San Francisco as 2-point dogs.

LA opened at (+1) but is now fluctuating between (+2) and (+2.5) at Bovada Sportsbook. Looks like this is the only one where we’re betting against public money.