Armed Forces Bowl: Missouri vs Army Odds, Lines, and Predictions, Plus 5 Holiday Bowl Bets

Through some self-destructive impulse, sports prediction sites always like to tout “Old Marty Moonshine” as the top winning-picks talisman on staff. Believe it or not, it helps to pick winners when you’re not 90 years old and jaded of all inspiration.

Having suffered a bad streak of losing picks on Championship Weekend, this CFB handicapper would be expected to employ conventional wisdom and comb over Week 14 scores for evidence of pre-game forecasting errors. Instead, my just-youthful-enough mind jumps straight to the funny conundrums of FBS bowl season, and a lucrative winning pick on Boise State that helped get me hooked on predicting college games to begin with.

Oregon became ESPN’s “sweetheart” program in the 2010s, when Justin Herbert passed for 800,000 yards and the Oregon Ducks won every national-championship game by 100 points. (According to the talking heads on TV, at least.) Boise State was a big, fat moneyline underdog to Oregon prior to the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl, even though Mario Cristobal was dealing with sudden, contentious turnover in the head coach’s chair, and lost control of a Ducks squad that allowed NFL Draft sit-outs to serve as cheerleaders on the sideline. Overwhelmed and perhaps somewhat embarrassed, the Oregon coaches were schooled by Boise’s highly motivated staff and players in a blow-out win for the Broncos.

It can make profiting from bowl season seem as simple as looking for hot underdogs and lazy Power-5 favorites with 5+ opt-outs riddling the depth chart. But for every Texas-over-Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, or Boise-over-Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl, there’s also an example of a Top 25 team that shows up ready to fight in the postseason, to make a bittersweet statement if nothing else.

Getting a Handle on Predicting Bowl Games

There are many advantages for college pigskin betters when bowl season comes around. Teams have fought through a season’s worth of opponents and adversity, giving each program a 2021-22 “resume” along with a large sample size of numbers for analysis. A gap in the FBS schedule following Rivalry Weekend gives speculators the opportunity to wait on placing their bets and to track the line movement on holiday bowl games carefully.

On the other hand, a careless selection of bowl-game picks can be fraught with pitfalls. College football players are also fans, and they recognize when a campaign will be considered a let-down in spite of a minor bowl bid. Dynastic programs such as Notre Dame are likely to turn down bowl-game invitations with dates prior to New Year’s, understanding that players will be disinterested in an “insulting” bowl berth. Conversely, upstart FBS teams are thrilled to play in any bowl game, and can be capable of wild upsets of opposing Power-5 lineups who are just playing-out their commitment.

The NFL wreaks havoc on FBS teams as bowl season progresses. New Year’s Six games appear as clashes of Power-5 titans on paper, but can turn into lopsided routs as NFL Draft hopefuls sit out the contest, decimating at least 1 of the teams before kickoff. Nearly 100% of student-athletes who reach the College Football Playoff will remain with their teams through January in search of a national championship. But if gamblers stake their entire loss limit on just 3 postseason games, they risk losing a bundle regardless.

Let’s look at a few of the FBS’s available Yuletide-season lines, and find some opportunities for winning picks prior to Christmas Day.

CFB Bowl Match-Ups, Odds, Lines, and Picks

Friday, December 17: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (2021 Cure Bowl)

Friday’s midday Bahamas Bowl between Toledo and MTSU kicks off the 2021-22 campaign’s bowl schedule. Betting action could be heavy on the Rockets and Blue Raiders for that reason alone. But while the Rockets have been drawing a large number of picks ATS, it’s the day’s latter contest between Coastal Carolina and NIU on which betting lines may have shifted more gainfully.

A humble Sun Belt representative, Coastal Carolina (-10.5) is a school that usually brings its A-game to the gridiron in any scenario. But the Chanticleers may suffer the defects of their virtues as a double-digit pick ATS, a fact overlooked by gamblers who’re flocking to give over 10 points.

Chanticleers may be the only Sun Belt student-athletes to ever get bored with a postseason berth, but it could happen, since Coastal was expected to reach greater heights this season. Coastal Carolina played in a memorable Cure Bowl with Liberty last December just weeks after surviving a battle with BYU to stay undefeated. Grayson McCall can recall playing to earn Top 10 honors in 2020’s overtime loss to the Flames, but there’s less at stake for the QB this time around. CCU’s fan base is crazy about consecutive 10+ win autumns, but that milestone has been achieved already.

On the opposing sideline stands QB Rocky Lombardi and the NIU Huskies, who have been a tough team to blow out in 2021. Lombardi was fooled and foiled through the air in most of Northern Illinois’ title tilt against Kent State on 12/4, but the Huskies continued to resurrect a tradition of power football, running the Golden Flashes off the field in a 41-23 victory.

NIU’s weakness in mid-season was a poor, out-of-whack defense, but the unit has regained the form that held Georgia Tech to 156 passing yards in Week 1’s upset victory. A drop in the Cure Bowl’s Over/Under line due to low-side action could prove the more prescient trend on the betting board.

Recommended bet: Under (64)

Saturday, December 18: BYU Cougars vs. UAB Blazers (2021 Independence Bowl)

When betting opened on Saturday afternoon’s Independence Bowl, bookmakers felt fairly confident in taking nearly 10 points from Brigham Young. After watching the BYU lineup swear loyalty to the program in December, they still might. Bettors (mostly) do not.

Alabama-Birmingham remains a pigskin stronghold, but UAB has at least temporarily fallen from the top rung of C-USA and stands at 8-4 on the year. BYU is ranked #12 by the Associated Press, already boasting double-digit wins in 2021, with a hot streak going against Power-5 opponents. Somehow, bettors at FanDuel and elsewhere still think UAB is the better Independence Bowl bet, recently shrinking BYU’s point spread to just (-6.5).

Is BYU an “indignant” bowl team that feels it deserved better placement? No matter how the mechanics of bowl match-making happened to fall short, Brigham Young has reason to feel jilted as a top-15 team that’s not facing a conference winner or at least a P5 brand in the postseason. However, quite unlike cogs from an organization that’s willing to phone it in for a minor bowl game, all of BYU’s stars plan to play outside of half of a wounded starting LB corps and an injured WR Neil Pau’u.

Another driving factor in the action is UAB’s excellent 9-3 record ATS. But the Blazers have covered a lot of point spreads against modest C-USA opposition while getting blown out by Georgia and Liberty in the ’21 team’s only kicks at the can versus Power-5 and indie contenders. Brigham Young doesn’t need bright lights to play hard, and the Cougars are as likely to make a statement by killing UAB as they are to play flat due to a ho-hum postseason bid.

Recommended bet: BYU (-6.5)

Saturday, December 18: Oregon State Beavers vs. Utah State Aggies (2021 Jimmy Kimmel L.A. Bowl)

Asking a network talk-show host to stamp his name on a sporting event is a risky move. The gambit has worked for comedians in the past, such as Bob Hope hosting the Bob Hope Classic, but trying to imagine brands like “The David Letterman Masters” or “Conan O’ Brien’s Cage Fighting” make us hope that the trend stops now.

Saturday’s L.A. Bowl opponents were not booked by Jimmy Kimmel, but if the comic is a devoted college football fan, he might as well have chosen Oregon State and Utah State (+245) with underdog high-rollers in mind.

OSU is a shaky 7-5 favorite that relies on a stubborn ground game to keep its offense ticking, a formula that worked against Utah but resulted in losses against California, Purdue, and Colorado. Oregon State is unlikely to block and tackle as hard as the Beavers did against the state-rival Ducks on Thanksgiving weekend. Furthermore, the Pac-12 side is 1-5 on the road following the Eugene loss.

Utah State has traveled as well as anyone outside of the Arizona Cardinals in 2021-22. The Aggies began by knocking off the Pac-12’s Washington State Cougars on hostile turf, and went on to finish 7-0 away from Merlin Olsen Field. While critics could argue that the Aggies played a weak road schedule, that contention disappeared when USU visited SoCal for a Mountain West title game on December 4th. Utah State destroyed the talented SDSU Aztecs 46-13 behind veteran QB Logan Bonner’s 4 TD passes.

Only a brief pause between Championship Weekend and the kickoff of bowl season scarcely gives minor bowl teams long to recover from a rivalry loss, an angle which also plays into predictions on this year’s Armed Forces Bowl.

Recommended bet: Utah State (+245) or (+7.5)

Monday, December 20: Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2021 Myrtle Beach Bowl)

Coastal Carolina’s recent rise to prominence should boost the attendance and media coverage of bowl games at CCU. Tulsa and Old Dominion aren’t cheerful about competing in a Group-of-5 field that includes brand-new powerhouses like Coastal, but the Monarchs and Golden Hurricane can feel good about playing on a campus that’s no longer a synonym for “cupcake” in fan parlance. Incidentally, temperatures at the South Carolina venue are expected to be mild on December 20th.

The Myrtle Beach Bowl will be played in the afternoon, so as not to compete with Monday Night Football. The Monarchs (+8.5) are not expected to compete very well themselves, as long (+270) odds to win reflect Old Dominion’s nearly non-existent track record as a bowl brand. Tulsa is merely a 6-6 favorite, but the AAC representatives have traveled exceptionally well against a difficult “Power-6” schedule. The AAC, after all, has sent a team to the College Football Playoff this season. Sun Belt Conference leaders have seen better years outside of Louisiana’s “raging” roar into bowl season.

Don’t go to sleep on a new “Old” brand. Old Dominion has rebounded from a fall losing streak to win 5 times in a row by an average of 2 touchdowns. The Monarchs are not athletic enough to upset elite teams, and have labored to stop every opposing offense outside of Middle Tennessee and Hampton’s mediocre units. Tulsa’s defense is the liability that gives Old Dominion a game plan to overcome the follies, as the Hurricane has been most porous against teams that can air out the pigskin.

Tulsa’s D nearly blew a double-digit lead in a 34-31 win over SMU on Thanksgiving weekend, while QB Hayden Wolff and the Monarch offense out-scored Charlotte 56-34 to knock the 49ers out of securing a bowl berth.

Recommended bet: Old Dominion (+8.5) and Over (53.5)

Wednesday, December 22: Missouri Tigers vs. Army Black Knights (2021 Armed Forces Bowl)

Black & Gold joins Utah State as the most overlooked ‘dogs in the opening week of bowl season.

Missouri is a fascinating 1.5-to-1 moneyline pick to defeat Army in the Armed Forces Bowl on Wednesday. Handicappers watched carefully as the Mizzou defense grew tired yet again in Week 13’s 17-point loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks. Bookmakers know that Army (-4) is a very legitimate threat to defeat a wobbly Power-5 opponent, having watched Jeff Monken’s blue-collar charges take on Wake Forest and Wisconsin in thrilling contests.

Yet it appears that FBS odds-makers went fishing on Saturday when Army was upset 17-13 by a thin Navy squad which utilized no healthy QBs in the contest. Army has a little over a week to regroup after losing its most important game of the year.

Worse yet for gamblers who rushed to pick West Point at thin ML odds, Navy defeated Army with a modern play selection that resembled Missouri’s more than the Navy teams of old. Monken’s own innovative passing game kept Army’s offense moving in Week 15, but his use of 2 signal-callers in the loss casts doubt on whether QB Christian Anderson is the type of every-down star who must flourish behind center for an academy to continue to win.

A wider picture of the Tigers’ momentum has been clouded by the recent loss to Arkansas. Eli Drinkwitz fielded a September defense so disorganized that SEMO and North Texas combined to score 9 touchdowns against the SEC school. Those days are gone, as the Missouri defense of late autumn contributed to stirring wins over Florida and SC, and held CFP representative Georgia to the Bulldogs’ 2nd-lowest opening 15:00 output between the hedges.

Missouri can hope to “out-Army” the Black Knights with a ground attack that has averaged 179 yards per game against a far tougher schedule. QB Connor Bazelak’s INT bug is less likely to bite if Army’s defense is saddled with defending 2nd-and-inches.

The 2009 Texas Bowl’s startling outcome hangs over this year’s kickoff in Fort Worth. Navy whipped Missouri 35-17 in the contest, planting the idea in bookmakers’ minds that a good service-academy team is too much for a .500 brand from the Midwest. Missouri DB Akalyeb Evans declaring for the NFL Draft prior to the Armed Forces Bowl underscores the angle sharply, as bookmakers remain wary of a phoned-in effort from Mizzou.

But it’s crucial that bettors contrast the Tigers of ’21 with the Tigers of a dozen years ago who didn’t play an SEC schedule and were up against a more physical Flexbone QB in Navy alum Ricky Dobbs. Anderson will need to complete 10+ passes for Army to score 28+ points on Mizzou, and that’s unlikely against a faster defense than he’s faced since visiting Madison in October. Look for the Missouri Tigers to force a few turnovers and earn an “upset” win.

Recommended bet: Missouri (+145)