Army-Navy Game 2022: Will Old Rivals Ever Start Scoring Like it’s a New Century?

 

Army-Navy football games are a strange trip for many WagerBop regulars. TD-to-INT ratios are less critical stats in an era of scientific FBS passing attacks, but the quarterbacks at service academies are judged mostly by how many touchdowns they manufacture vs how few turnovers they commit. Academy teams often flourish on offense while allowing too many points to opposing teams, but defenses still tend to shine in Commander-in-Chief rivalry bouts. HCs Jeff Monken and Ken Niumatalolo’s respective playbooks at West Point and Annapolis are knocked as “old fashioned,” though the “Flexbone” came 60 years after Curly Lambeau invented the Shotgun-Spread.

Heck, even the branding of Army and Navy sports is kind of confusing. The words “Army” and “Navy” refer to the abstract concepts of a nation’s ground and sea forces, and are utilized as adjectives as often as nouns. The common custom a century ago was to refer to Army and Navy’s football clubs as “The Army” and “The Navy,” also awkward enough that head coaches wound up saying things like, “My 42 kids conquered The Army today.”

Officially, the college football teams now known as “Army” and “Navy” are called “Army West Point” and “Naval Academy at Annapolis” … not quite so snappy-looking on a poster.

There’s one crystal-clear angle for newbie gamblers to grasp onto in Week 15. Army and Navy produce a ton of low-scoring games. How many low-scoring games? Monken and Niumatalolo’s often high-powered, high-scoring teams are working on a double-digit streak of “Under” outcomes against Las Vegas point-total lines. That’s despite the best efforts of pro handicappers and bookmakers, who have set opening O/U lines for the Army-Navy Game lower than those on any NFL game between teams with injured starting quarterbacks. Navy’s Top-25 ranked team in 2019, led by record-setting QB Malcolm Perry, couldn’t push the game’s eventual point-total over 40 points despite winning by 3 touchdowns. Autumn of 2013 featured the last Army-Navy Game that produced 40+ points on the scoreboard. COVID-era bouts totaled exactly 45 points … in 8 quarters.

Power-5 innovator Paul Johnson’s tricky playbook has helped the Mids and Knights through plenty of lean years at OL, quarterback, and receiver. But the steady improvement of defense and special teams in Commander-in-Chief’s pigskin can be traced to the recent decisions of military brass. In the 2000s, Army and Navy linemen were forced to endure grueling water-pill regimens to get their weight down to around 200 pounds for military training, then gorge-out on protein until they were somewhere close to Varsity size again.

It was hard for service-academy programs to fight through those regulations and produce a competitive front-7 against rivals like Notre Dame every campaign. Lately, a subculture of pro-sports generals and admirals have employed common sense in letting frosh-plebe linemen have a healthier transition, and the results are illustrated on the gridiron and in the recruiting office, as more 3-star seniors imagine the military-prep lifestyle as more tolerable than it used to be. Navy’s defense goes into the 123rd Army-Navy Game after holding Tulane, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, and UCF to minimal 2nd-half yards in consecutive games. Monken’s defense was too much for the revived Connecticut Huskies in Army’s 34-17 victory on 11/19, despite renowned UConn coach Jim Mora’s best game-planning.

It’s alarming to each coaching staff that Army and Navy’s attacks have become so single-dimensional in an otherwise heartening stretch-run. Arline doesn’t have the deep-arm of Will Worth and other 10-win Navy quarterbacks, and cannot threaten bombs-away series against Army’s fast-improving rush-defense. Tyler is yet another role-playing QB on an Army offense that sticks to the Johnson formula, though the upperclassman’s proven big-play rushing ability is more credited than Arline’s.

Navy and Army’s play-callers believe they might have to open things up, or-else lose by a shut-out score. Each opposing defensive line will be charged-up for different reasons, the Black Knights in an effort to “Beat Navy!” and secure a bowl berth at 6 wins, and Navy’s to “Beat Army,” but also to spoil that West Point bowl berth.

Army and Navy’s LB corps are expert at stepping-out, or stopping pitch-play attempts on QB options with a fast step toward the sidelines that does not compromise tacklers’ ability to pursue the B-back up the middle. However, it’s the effectiveness of that tactic against faster-paced Navy and Army offenses, not lousy ones, that’s helped to produce the crazy low-scoring trend. When opponents grind-out 1st downs against all odds, often using 4 straight runs between the hashes to do so, the game-clock melts away even when drives don’t end in points.

Army’s 2022 run defense is deceptively strong at “113rd ranked” in the FBS. West Point debuted against killer run-blocking teams like Coastal Carolina and Wake Forest, but later held Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, and most importantly, Air Force to relatively poor rushing days in consecutive bouts after the leaves turned. Still, given the success of Niumatalolo’s diminutive, fast rushers like Dafa Fofana against Notre Dame and other highly-touted defensive teams, it’s irresponsible not to ask if Navy will find a way to produce 10:00 “death-march” drives against rival West Point all over again this weekend.

Predicting the 123rd Army-Navy Game: The Defensive Struggle Goes On?

Army appears to be the complete team with a higher ceiling, given that Navy’s been struggling to manufacture long drives all season, while Tyler’s offense was anticipated to produce at least 7 victories against an uneven Army schedule this fall. The only way to accomplish that goal now is for Army to “Beat Navy!” and go on to the postseason. Army’s going for a blow-out at Lincoln Financial Field, and Navy’s the team hoping to win by 1 or 2 points if necessary.

If a pair of frustrated Flexbone offenses finally give-up running headlong into a wall, and toss a few more long passes around, that’s evidence of the streak of defensive battles finally coming to an end soon. But if Annapolis and West Point continue to produce winning drives without ever putting the pigskin in the air, then the Army-Navy Game may stay low-scoring longer than FDR was Commander-in-Chief.